[Indonesia] Banks

Bank Rakyat Indonesia Buy

(BBRI IJ) (Maintain)

4Q20 review: Better-than-expected earnings TP: IDR5,620

Upside: 34.4%

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia

Lee Young Jun lee.youngjun@miraeasset.co.id

FY earnings achieve 123% of our Earnings fall by 52.7% YoY

estimate  Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) booked a net profit of IDR4,538.7bn (-52.7% YoY; +15.3% QoQ),
driven by higher credit cost in 4Q20. PPOP also remained weak at -3.9% YoY, while provisions
grew by 77.6% YoY. Nevertheless, FY net profit came in at IDR18,654.8bn, achieving 123% and
96% of our and consensus estimates, respectively.

Micro contributes 40% to total Solid loan portfolio with ample liquidity
loan
 BBRI was able to lower its NPL and SML ratio by 8bps QoQ and 248bps QoQ, respectively.
However, the management added more provision to maintain the coverage ratio and stay
conservative. As a result, credit cost inched up to 3.4% (+91bps YoY) in 2020. While the
management expect credit cost to decline to ±3.1% in 2021, we think it may drop to below 3%
on the back of economic recovery post vaccination. In addition, total restructured loan caused
by COVID19 remained stable at IDR187tr in 2020 (vs. IDR194tr in 3Q20) or 21% of total loan.
 Despite asset quality deterioration, the government’s stimulus package helped BBRI to book
positive loan growth in 4Q20. Its loan growth came in at 2.4% YoY, largely driven by micro
segment (14.2%). In 4Q20, BBRI’s micro portion increased to 40% (vs. 36% in 2019). Expansion
to micro segment was one of the ways for BBRI to increase its NIM from 5.8% in 9M20 to 6.0%
in 2020. Moreover, BBRI cut its time deposit rate in 4Q20 and was able to lower its funding
cost to 3.22% (-23bps QoQ).
 In 2020, total deposit grew by 8.5%, while LDR decreased to 83.7% (-5%pt YoY). Having ample
liquidity, we believe BBRI will likely control its time deposit amount to keep managing its
funding cost in 2021. For reference, BBRI’s CASA ratio is 61.0% (+2%pt YoY) as of 2020.

Adjusting earnings up to IDR30tr Maintain Buy recommendation with TP of IDR5,620

in 2021  We adjust up our earnings forecast from IDR28tr to IDR30tr in 2021 as improvement in core
business was faster than our estimate and quality management was better than our forecast.
We maintain our Buy call with a slightly higher target price of IDR5,620 (from IDR5,580). Our
target price implies a P/B of 3.1x our 12-month rolling forward BPS estimate. Key risks to our
call: 1) Termination of the government’s stimulus packages for the micro segment; 2) lower
success rate of restructured loan; and, 3) slower-than-expected consumers’ purchasing power
recovery.

Key data
(D-1yr=100)
JCI BBRI Share Price (1/29/21, IDR) 4,180 Market Cap (IDRbn) 515,497.7
110
Consensus NP (21F, IDRbn) 30,603 Shares Outstanding (mn) 123,324.8
100
90 NP Mirae Asset vs. consensus (21F, %) -2.3 Free Float (%) 43.2
80
EPS Growth (21F, %) 60.2 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.3
70
60 P/E (21F, x) 17.3 52-Week Low (IDR) 2,160
50 Industry P/E (21F, x) 16.6 52-Week High (IDR) 4,950
40
1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 Benchmark P/E (21F, x) 11.0

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics

(%) 1M 6M 12M FY (Dec.) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Absolute 6.9 41.5 -3.2 Total OP (IDRbn) 92,144.1 101,742.8 110,108.6 108,826.0 117,691.0 128,976.6
Relative 7.9 25.3 -1.1 PPOP (IDRbn) 53,805.3 59,537.2 65,550.7 57,401.9 63,387.2 70,254.2
Net Profit (IDRbn) 28,997.1 32,351.2 34,372.6 18,654.8 29,887.6 37,152.5
EPS (IDR) 235.1 262.3 278.7 151.2 242.3 301.2
BPS (IDR) 1,355.5 1,483.4 1,672.7 1,600.2 1,781.0 2,008.5
P/E (x) 17.8 15.9 15.0 27.6 17.3 13.9
P/B (x) 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.1
ROE (%) 18.9 18.9 18.1 9.4 14.2 15.7
ROA (%) 2.8 2.8 2.7 1.3 1.9 2.2
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Figure 1. Loan growth by segment Figure 2. Deposit growth

(YoY, %) Consumer Micro (%) Total Deposit Saving

50
40 Small Commercial Medium Demand Deposit Time Deposit
Corporate Total 40
30

20 30

10 20

0 10

-10 0

-20 -10
4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 3. Net interest margin trajectory Figure 4. Asset quality metrics

(%) Funding costs (%) NPL SML

Net interest margins 10
10
9
9
8
8 7
6
7
5
6
4
5 3
2
4
1
3
4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 0
4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 5. Progress of loan restructuring caused by COVID-19 Figure 6. 12-month forward P/B band

(IDRtr) Total (L) Monthly (L) % to total loan (R) (%) (IDR)
250 25 8,000

193.7 192.3 189.3 186.6 7,000 4.0x

200 183.7 189.1
171.9 21.8 22.1 21.9 21.6 20
160.5 21.3 21.2 6,000
19.8
150 18.6 3.0x
5,000
101.2 15
100 4,000
11.7 59.3 2.0x
86.3 10
3,000
50
14.9
11.4 11.8 5.4 2,000 1.0x
14.9 4.6 -1.4 5
0
-2.6 1,000
-3
1.7
-50 0 0
March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Des
1/06 1/09 1/12 1/15 1/18 1/21
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Table 1. 4Q20 earnings review (IDRbn, %)

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 QoQ YoY
Net interest Income 21,128.4 20,967.3 15,535.2 19,546.9 23,160.6 18.5 9.6
Non-Interest Income 10,003.1 8,200.0 5,828.2 8,185.4 7,402.4 -9.6 -26.0
Total operating profit 31,131.5 29,167.3 21,363.4 27,732.3 30,563.1 10.2 -1.8
G&A expenses 11,999.2 12,445.3 12,699.2 14,095.7 12,183.8 -13.6 1.5
PPOP 19,132.3 16,722.0 8,664.2 13,636.6 18,379.2 34.8 -3.9
Loan loss provisions 6,774.1 6,593.1 3,275.4 8,715.1 12,033.9 38.1 77.6
Net operating profit/(loss) 12,358.2 10,128.9 5,388.8 4,921.5 6,345.3 28.9 -48.7
Net non-operating income -50.7 26.8 -5.0 -50.5 -30.8 -39.0 -39.1
Pre-tax profit/(loss) 12,307.5 10,155.7 5,383.7 4,870.9 6,314.5 29.6 -48.7
Attributable net profit/(loss) 9,592.1 8,162.8 2,015.5 3,937.8 4,538.7 15.3 -52.7
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Table 2. Mirae Asset’s and consensus’ estimates (IDRbn, %)

2020
2020 BBRI (a) 2020 MASI (b) (a)/(b) (a)/(c)
Consensus (c)
Net interest Income 79,209.9 76,204.0 N/A 103.9 N/A
Pre-tax profit/(loss) 26,724.8 21,943.0 25,575.0 121.8 104.5
Attributable net profit/(loss) 18,654.8 15,124.4 19,467.0 123.3 95.8
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Table 3. Earnings forecast revision in 2021 and 2022 (IDRbn, %)

Old New Change
2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
Total operating profit 114,048.8 129,882.3 117,691.0 128,976.6 3.2 -0.7
PPOP 61,375.6 71,691.6 63,387.2 70,254.2 3.3 -2.0
Loan loss provisions 26,088.6 24,726.0 25,668.9 23,382.0 -1.6 -5.4
Attributable net profit/(loss) 27,924.8 37,199.3 29,887.6 37,152.5 7.0 -0.1
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F (IDRbn) 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Net interest income 81,707.3 79,209.9 84,956.8 95,386.7 Cash and cash equivalents 30,219 32,162 34,877 37,493
Non-interest income 28,401.3 29,616.1 32,734.2 33,589.9 Current account with BI 171,862 107,489 112,326 117,942
Net commission income 14,437.7 15,122.7 15,652.0 16,825.9 Placement at other banks 27,006 19,715 21,095 22,678
Trading related income 2,073.8 4,723.8 7,303.3 6,319.0 Securities assets 180,685 317,828 297,526 304,410
Other non-interest income 11,889.9 9,769.6 9,779.0 10,445.0 Net loans and advances 848,426 841,121 944,350 1,039,132
Total operating profit 110,108.6 108,826.0 117,691.0 128,976.6 Net loans 839,080 834,304 937,621 1,031,696
SG&A expenses 44,558.0 51,424.1 54,303.8 58,722.4 Gross Loans 877,444 899,469 990,330 1,088,365
Pre-provisioning OP 65,550.7 57,401.9 63,387.2 70,254.2 (Allowance for credit losses) -38,364 -65,165 -52,709 -56,669
Net provisions 22,105.5 30,617.5 25,668.9 23,382.0 Total assets 1,416,759 1,511,805 1,617,280 1,744,401
Net operating profit 43,445.1 26,784.5 37,718.3 46,872.2 Total customer deposits 1,020,855 1,121,102 1,195,718 1,295,568
Non-operating income -81.1 -59.6 -56.7 -57.1 Demand deposits 168,485 193,078 219,005 234,198
Pretax profit 43,364.1 26,724.8 37,661.6 46,815.2 Savings Deposits 405,355 475,848 508,731 546,536
Corporate tax 8,950.2 8,064.5 7,773.3 9,662.5 Time Deposits 413,224 452,176 467,982 514,834
Minority interest 41.2 5.6 0.8 0.1 Other deposits 33,791 0 0 0
Attributable net profit 34,372.6 18,654.8 29,887.6 37,152.5 Borrowings 68,420 65,964 70,624 75,969
Growth (%) Debentures 38,621 33,639 29,734 26,627
Net interest income 5.2 -3.1 7.3 12.3 Total liabilities 1,207,975 1,311,893 1,394,992 1,493,983
Non-interest income 18.0 4.3 10.5 2.6 Capital stock 6,167 6,167 6,167 6,167
Total operating profit 8.2 -1.2 8.1 9.6 Capital surplus 2,945 4,714 7,544 12,073
SG&A expenses 5.6 15.4 5.6 8.1 Accum. translation adjustments 17,990 21,174 22,656 24,355
Pre-provisioning OP 10.1 -12.4 10.4 10.8 Retained earnings 178,305 163,949 181,583 203,132
Net provisions 24.2 38.5 -16.2 -8.9 Non-controlling interest 2,461 2,534 2,607 2,680
Net operating profit 4.1 -38.3 40.8 24.3 Total shareholders' equity 208,784 199,911 222,288 250,418
Attributable net profit 6.2 -45.7 60.2 24.3

Key performance indicators Balance sheet growth rate

12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Per share data Cash and cash equivalents 10.2 6.4 8.4 7.5
EPS (IDR) 278.7 151.2 242.3 301.2 Current account with BI 23.3 -37.5 4.5 5.0
EPS growth (%) 6.2 (45.7) 60.2 24.3 Placement at other banks -5.5 -27.0 7.0 7.5
BPS (IDR) 1,672.7 1,600.2 1,781.0 2,008.5 Securities assets 2.4 75.9 (6.4) 2.3
BPS growth (%) 12.8 (4.3) 11.3 12.8 Net loans and advances 6.5 -0.9 12.3 10.0
DPS 125.4 60.5 99.3 126.5 Net loans 6.9 -0.6 12.4 10.0
Key ratios (%) Gross Loans 7.0 2.5 10.1 9.9
Non-int. income/ Total OP 25.8 27.2 27.8 26.0 (Allowance for credit losses) 9.6 69.9 (19.1) 7.5
Cost-to-income 40.5 47.3 46.1 45.5 Total assets 9.2 6.7 7.0 7.9
Provisions/ Loans 2.68 3.45 2.72 2.25 Total customer deposits 8.1 9.8 6.7 8.4
Tax rate 20.6 30.2 20.6 20.6 CASA deposits -5.4 14.6 13.4 6.9
Loan-to-deposit ratio 86.0 80.2 82.8 84.0 Savings Deposits 6.7 17.4 6.9 7.4
Yields on IEA 10.07 8.23 8.83 9.28 Time Deposits 15.6 9.4 3.5 10.0
Yields on IBL 3.88 2.98 2.93 3.13 Other deposits 17.2 N/A N/A N/A
Margins on IEA 6.76 5.57 6.22 6.50 Borrowings 44.4 -3.6 7.1 7.6
Spreads on IEA 6.18 5.25 5.90 6.15 Marketable Securities Issued 23.8 -12.9 (11.6) (10.4)
ROA 2.7 1.3 1.9 2.2 Total liabilities 8.7 8.6 6.3 7.1
ROE 18.1 9.4 14.2 15.7 Capital stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Balance sheet gearing Capital surplus -5.9 60.0 60.0 60.0
Avg. adjusted equity (IDRbn) 190,093 198,962 211,100 236,353 Accum. translation adjustments 38.8 17.7 7.0 7.5

Average total assets (IDRbn) Retained earnings 11.4 -8.1 10.8 11.9
1,288,379 1,447,973 1,564,542 1,680,840
Financial leverage (x) 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.1 Non-controlling interest 6.6 3.0 2.9 2.8
Avg. equity / Avg. assets (%) 14.8 13.7 13.5 14.1 Total shareholders' equity 12.7 -4.2 11.2 12.7
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

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February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Appendix 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (IDR) BBRI Analyst's TP
BBRI IJ 2/1/2021 Buy 5,620 6,000
12/2/2020 Buy 5,580
11/11/2020 Hold 3,750 5,000
10/23/2020 Hold 3,410
4,000
8/20/2020 Hold 3,220
8/12/2020 Sell 2,460 3,000
6/22/2020 Sell 2,700
5/15/2020 Trading Buy 2,650 2,000
4/3/2020 Buy 4,020 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21
3/16/2020 Hold 4,020
3/2/2020 Buy 5,400
1/21/2020 Trading Buy 5,400
12/3/2019 Trading Buy 4,800
10/25/2019 Trading Buy 5,100
8/28/2019 Buy 5,100
6/27/2019 Trading Buy 5,100
4/11/2019 Trading Buy 4,900
1/31/2019 Hold 4,000
1/23/2019 Trading Buy 4,000

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term
material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future
earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution

Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
Equity Ratings Distribution 57.45% 25.53% 14.89% 2.13%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2020)

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or
more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily
responsible for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject
companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was,
is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset
Sekuritas Indonesia, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business
units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do
not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated
herein.

Disclaimers
This report is published by PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the
Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such
information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness,
accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Bahasa Indonesia. If
this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made
available to investors in advance of this report. Mirae Asset, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 5

February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a
solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated
institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no
person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset and its affiliates to registration or licensing
requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice
and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior
written consent of Mirae Asset. Mirae Asset, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the
subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments
from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset and its affiliates may have had, or may be
expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are
permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down
as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Fu ture returns are not
guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Distribution
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within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and
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case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong
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Asset or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae
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February 1, 2021 Bank Rakyat Indonesia

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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 7