TEMPLATE FOR DEVELOPING RISK

SCENARIOS

Activity: WP3 Act. 3.2

Author: National Directorate General for Disaster Management

Version Final

Date 13.05.2013
TEMPLATE FOR DEVELOPING RISK SCENARIO
The scenarios will serve as a basis for disaster management field simulation exercises so the textual
description of each step should be concise and straight to the point. Therefore keeping paragraphs as
short as possible is very important.
1. Hazard characteristics
Step 1.1 Identifying the hazard to be analysed
Type of hazard:

Step 1.2 Specifying and describing the causing factor of the event
Natural causing factor(s) of the disaster events:

Step 1.3 Defining likelihood

Likelihood of the worst case disaster event based on the risk matrix:

Step 1.4 Defining intensity

Intensity of the disaster event based on the risk matrix:

Step 1.4 Define extent

Define the area that will be affected (administrative unit, catchment, or in Km2)

2. Context of the incident: disaster circumstance and vulnerability details

Step 2.1 Defining and delineating the location and the size of the area1

Time period (hours or days) Size of the affected area

(km2)

12

24

1Insome cases (e.g. drought, heat wave) the affected area remains the same. In this case provide only
one row of information in the above table.

2
Step 2.2: Defining the time and the duration of the event
Information on the time the of the day, time of the onset2, the season and the duration3:
2Time of onset: the time: the lapse of time from the occurrence of the first precursor to the intensity peak of the hazardous
event (van Westen, 2012)
3Duration: the time span in which such event takes place. To quantify the duration, the starting and the ending points have to

be defined (van Westen, 2012)

Step 2.3: Defining population number and density data

Time period (hours in case of Number of Population density Vulnerable groups in the
rapid events and days in case people affected in the affected affected area (e.g. elderly,
of slower events) area (capita/km2) patients, and children).
Describe and define number

12

24

Information on the number of population:

Step 2.4: Defining general circumstances and the degree of vulnerability and exposure of people,
the built-up and the natural environment

Predominant building Stock of the Predominant vegetation Stock of the General

type in the area which important public type and the areas under relevant urban condition of the
will be impacted the buildings natural protection and other critical elements:
most by the disaster ecologically vulnerable infrastructure poor/adequate/
areas in the affected area good

3
Textual description on the predominant general health condition and the age composition of the affected
people:

3. Describing consequences
3.1: Defining the affected elements at risk (people, environment, objects)
Information on the affected elements such as people, urban objects like buildings and critical
infrastructure, environment etc.:

3.2: Indicating the nature and the extent of the consequence (impact analysis)
3.2.1 Physical impacts:
3.2.2 Economic impacts:

3.2.3 Ecological impacts:

3.2.4 Social and psychological impacts:

4. Preparedness of the Disaster Management and national authorities

Provide information about the existing preventive and preparatory DM measures and staff: