February 2021- Edition

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Content

International 6
1. End of Qatar Blockade- Implications on the region 7
2. A Failed Afghan Peace Deal 11
3. Abraham accord in a glance 16
4. Trump’s Deal of the Century 18

National 21
1. Energy crisis in Pakistan 22
2. Economic crisis in Pakistan: Challenges and remedies 26
3. Kashmir crisis - Historical timeline 30

Covid Special 32
1. The world after pandemic 33
2. Has Covid 19 killed globalization 37

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Essay Outlines 40
1. Real development should transform people’s lives, not just economic statistics 41
2. Crisis of good governance in Pakistan. Need for reforms & institution building? 42
3. Will rule of Law remain an impracticable myth in our country? 43
4. Climate Change and Ways to Counter It? 44

Monthly Press Review 46

Pre Partition History of Pakistan 68

Important Quotes 79
CSS 2021 Guess Questions 83

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International

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 End of Qatar
Blockade-
Implications on
the region
Fatima tuz Zahra Khan
In 2017, Qatar’s only land border was blocked and
the air space of gulf region was sealed for the
Qatari flights. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the
only land neighbor of Qatar accused it of having
warm ties with Iran and supporting Islamic
terrorist groups like Muslim Brotherhood. The
blockade came with 13 demands that were not
fulfilled bb Qatar including reducing diplomatic
relations with Iran and closing news organization
Al-Jazeera.3.5 years the later, in a sudden and
revolutionary move, the blockade has been ended
by the GCC countries and is being called ‘Al-Ula
declaration’ and ‘Solidarity and Stability
Agreement’. It would lead to several implications
of the region. Kuwait has played a pivotal role in
the process.

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Implications:

•The Biden Effect:

The deal has came at a very crucial time, when the Biden Administration was about to take the office. The
new administration seemed keen to reassess its relationship with The Kingdom and President Joe Biden has
highlighted the human rights violations by KSA while showing a reconciliatory tilt towards Iran. The war in
Yemen and the human rights records of Saudi Arabia have been a source of criticism by the incoming Biden
administration. As per KSA’s perspective such a deal would be a blow to the Iranian diplomacy with Qatar and
would impact Iranian diplomatic presence in the region.

•Facing Saving for Saudi Arabia and Allies:

As mentioned above, GCC presented a list of 13 demands to Qatar to end blockade. Qatar did not comply with
single on of the demand. Amidst growing pressure of the incoming US administration, the reconciliatory
move by KSA was more of a face-saving act. The bloc primarily wanted to put pressure on the growing
Qatar-Iran-Turkey Nexus and improve regional integration. The deal may not be as fruitful for GCC
diplomacy in the region as it may intend to be.

•A new wave of Economic and regional integration in Gulf region:

The gulf region economy has been primarily oil reliant. Recently, a new trend is observed that focuses on
diversifying the economies because of the negative global oil price trends. It is estimated that the gulf
countries may exhaust their oil resources completely in the next 25 years. End of blockade would lead to a
new era of economic integration in the gulf region. Qatar is a strong economy with high trade potential. The
boost would be seen in sports and entertainment. People to people contact would also help in boosting the
economies. Cross border retail companies would benefit from the end of blockade. For instance, prior the
blockade UAE was Qatar Airways’ largest market.

•Future of Qatar-Iran Nexus:

Qatar has the largest US military base in the region and yet it enjoys good relations with Iran. The foreign
policy of Qatar is more pragmatic than idealistic. Despite the end of blockade and a hope of re-establishing
strengthened ties with gulf region; the agenda of weakening the Qatar Iran nexus behind the deal might not
be fulfilled. Qatar shares its largest gas field with Iran and Iran holds shares in the state channel Al-Jazeera.
Additionally, Iran’s airspace has become of key importance for Iran specially post blockade of 2017. Over the
years of blockade Qatar has come out strong and gained a lesson of self help. Qatar might not risk its strong
relations with Iran at the cost of re-entering GCC bloc. The Qatari Foreign ministry has even offered
mediation between GCC and Iran in the mid of January 2021.

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•The question mark of Qatar and Turkey relations:

After blockade, Qatar started looking towards other potential regional allies thus leading to strengthened ties
with Turkey. Turkey enjoys antagonistic relations with KSA. In the recent past, incidents like killing of Jamal
Khashoggi in 2018 have further antagonized the relations. The ties were diplomatic and economic in nature
and according to official statement of Qatari Foreign ministry, Qatar would not downgrade its relationship
with Turkey after the deal. Qatar would look forward to more balanced regional trade interdependence.
President Erdogan has termed the reconciliation as ‘very beneficial’ in an official statement. In another
statement the Turkish foreign ministry stated that "We hope that the Al-Ula Declaration signed at the end of
the summit will lead to the ultimate resolution of the conflict,"

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•An Independent Qatar in an Interdependent Bloc:

Before the blockade, Qatar was dependent on the gulf
region for several products from gulf region. During
blockade, Qatar has not only become independent but
also diversified its trade and diplomatic links. It became
more and more self-sufficient and came out stronger.
For example before the blockade, Qatar was completely
dependent on KSA for dairy products but not it has
become self-sufficient. Greater independence of Qatar
was important for equitable interdependence in GCC
bloc. It would not be easy for GCC to impact the policy
decisions of Qatar as it might have been before the
blockade. Qatar has come out asa more independent
and self sufficient country out of the blockade.

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 A Failed
Afghan
Peace Deal
Introduction
On February 29, 2020, the United States and the
Taliban signed an agreement intended to be a
first step toward an intra-Afghan peace deal.
Important provisions of the deal included a U.S.
commitment to eventually withdraw all U.S. and
foreign troops from Afghanistan, a Taliban pledge
to prevent al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups
from using Afghan territory to threaten the
United States and its partners, and a promise by
both sides to support intra-Afghan peace
negotiations. As part of the agreement, the
United States promised to decrease the number
of U.S. forces from approximately 14,000 to 8,600
soldiers, proportionately reduce the number of
other international forces in Afghanistan, and
work with both sides to release prisoners. There
were notable problems with the agreement, such
as its failure to include the Afghan government in
the negotiations. It was an attempt to make the
best of a bad situation.

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Despite such problems, a peace agreement that prevents Afghanistan from once again becoming a haven for
international terrorism would allow the United States to withdraw its forces and reduce its security and
development assistance, which exceeded $800 billion between 2001 and 2019. An agreement is particularly
desirable as the United States focuses on competition with China and Russia, and as the United States deals
with the budgetary pressures caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Achieving an acceptable peace agreement, however, will not be easy. It is unclear whether the Taliban is
serious about reaching a deal or whether its leaders are negotiating simply to get U.S. troops to withdraw so
that Taliban forces can overthrow the Afghan government. Even if the Taliban is negotiating in good faith,
significant issues need to be resolved—from political power-sharing to the role of Islam and women’s rights.

Given these challenges, the risk of the peace process collapsing or stalling indefinitely is significant. In either
case, domestic U.S. pressure to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan would likely intensify. Some
Republicans and Democrats already advocate a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces, regardless of the
outcome of negotiations.

But this would be a mistake, especially if the Taliban is largely at fault. The United States still has interests in
Afghanistan, such as preventing the country from becoming a sanctuary for international terrorist groups
such as al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State; averting regional instability as Russia, Iran, Pakistan,
and India compete for influence in Afghanistan; and minimizing the likelihood of a major humanitarian crisis.
The overthrow of the Afghan government by the Taliban would also likely be a boon for Islamist extremists.
Finally, a precipitous U.S. withdrawal without a peace deal would likely raise serious questions about U.S.
reliability from its allies.

Warning Indicators:
Several indicators would suggest an increased likelihood
of the contingency occurring. A collapsed peace process
could be preceded by the following events:

•Abdullah publicly threatens to quit the government.

The May 2020 deal between Ghani and Abdullah remains
fragile. Credible threats by Abdullah, who is the
government’s lead for the negotiations, to quit could
increase the prospect of collapsed negotiations.

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•Provincial or local governments begin undermining Kabul’s authority.

Provincial or local government officials could flout Kabul’s authority and trigger a collapse of the
government. President Ghani has significant power to appoint and replace national, provincial, and district
officials. But a provincial governor, police chief, or other appointed official publicly refusing to be replaced or
acting independently could signal a weakening of the central government. In addition, a substantial growth
in the number, size, and capability of substate militias, which begin to outpace the size and strength of the
Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, would be a cause for concern.

•One or both sides refuse to participate in negotiations.

The Afghan government or the Taliban could withdraw from the negotiations because one or both of them
are unwilling to make concessions on issues such as political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and prisoner
swaps. Such a refusal, rather than coming about abruptly, could be preceded by public or private warnings
from one or both sides that they are considering withdrawing from negotiations.

•The Taliban overruns one or more cities.

Although the Taliban has failed to capture and hold a major urban area, that situation could change over the
next twelve to eighteen months. Over the past few years, the Taliban has threatened cities such as Farah,
Ghazni, Kunduz, and Pul-i-Khumri. Based on its current strategy and operations, the Taliban could overrun
and hold one or more provincial capitals. The Taliban has already threatened several provincial capitals by
attacking static positions in outlying areas, attempting to cut off lines of communication, and conducting
assassinations and bombings. A major Taliban military advance could trigger a collapse of negotiations.

•There are one or more high-profile attacks.

The killing of senior Afghan government, Taliban, or U.S. officials—including members of their negotiating
teams—could trigger a freeze (or potentially even a collapse) in the negotiations or undermine the
implementation of a fragile agreement. While violence will continue during the negotiations, a high-profile
attack could cause one or both sides to stop participating in the peace process—at least for the moment. A
potential exception would be an attack perpetrated by a spoiler group, such as the Islamic State in Khorasan.
The group is enemies with both the government and the Taliban and an attack would not necessarily
undermine trust between the negotiating parties.

•Both sides fail to agree on a date or location for future meetings.

Another warning indicator of stalled negotiations is the persistent failure of both sides to agree on a date and
location for future meetings. In this case, neither side formally walks out of negotiations, but talks move into
a freeze.

•The Taliban fails to seriously discuss disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating.

In virtually every successful peace agreement, the insurgent group has agreed to hand in weapons and
ammunition (disarm), break up its military units (disband), and support training and assistance for former
combatants to rejoin civilian life (reintegrate). However, the Taliban has thus far refused to disarm,
demobilize, and reintegrate its fighters into Afghan society or to seriously discuss integrating its forces into
a new national security structure with Afghan army and police forces. This behavior has raised questions
about whether the Taliban is seriously committed to a peace settlement. Continuing intransigence—even
after a fragile agreement—could likely raise the possibility of stalled negotiations.

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Implications for U.S. Interests

Collapsed or stalled negotiations could undermine U.S. interests in several ways. First, they would likely lead
to increased violence in Afghanistan, which would endanger U.S. personnel and increase the number of
refugees and displaced persons with potentially destabilizing consequences. With 2.7 million refugees,
Afghanistan already has the second-largest refugee population in the world, behind Syria, according to the
UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Several cases highlight the dangers of collapsed negotiations. The
second intifada erupted in 2000 between Israelis and Palestinians following the collapse of the Camp David
peace talks, which triggered the highest levels of violence up to that point between the two sides. In Angola,
the collapse of the Lusaka Accords in 1998 plunged the country back into all-out war, which continued for
several more years.

Second, the terrorism problem could become more acute. If the Taliban increased its control of territory,
Afghanistan could see a rise in the number of terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Khorasan,
Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.

Third, a collapsed or stalled peace process and a burgeoning war could increase regional instability as India,
Pakistan, Iran, and Russia support a mix of Afghan central government forces, substate militias, and insurgent
groups. Several of these countries, such as Iran and Russia, are major competitors of the United States.
Growing Taliban control of Afghanistan and an increase in militant group activity could also increase regional
friction between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. Tensions between the two have risen recently, in part
following the Indian government’s 2019 decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s constitutionally protected
special status (which gave the region some autonomy) under Article 370 of the Indian constitution and at least
temporarily imposing tight security measures across the Kashmir Valley.

Recommendations:
The United States should be prepared to take the following steps over the next twelve to eighteen months if
negotiations begin to fail:

•Maintain forces in Afghanistan if Taliban leaders renege on their commitment to a peace deal. The
United States should keep several thousand U.S. military forces and CIA personnel in Afghanistan for the
foreseeable future if Taliban intransigence is a major cause of collapsed or stalled intra-Afghan negotiations. A
U.S. presence would be important as long as there are serious threats to U.S. national security, such as the
presence of international terrorist groups. The United States should also be prepared to temporarily halt the
withdrawal of forces if the implementation of a deal breaks down, or consider reinserting counterterrorism
forces if the Taliban reneges on a deal after a U.S. withdrawal.

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•Develop credible threats to punish the Taliban from reneging on its commitment to a peace deal.
A weakness of some past negotiated settlements has been the lack of a credible guarantee to punish parties
that repudiate their pledges. If the Taliban reneges on its commitments to support a peace deal, the United
States should reimpose sanctions against the Taliban and its members; ramp up the targeting of Taliban
leaders in Afghanistan and possibly in Pakistan; and enlist Pakistan to pressure Taliban leaders who
undermine the peace process, including by possibly banishing from Pakistan Taliban leaders (and their
families) who have undermined the prospects for peace. Research on the end of civil wars and insurgencies
indicates that the absence of a credible threat of punishment leaves settlements vulnerable either to outright
cheating or to tactical cease-fires in which one or all parties simply use the respite to rearm.

•Signal that the United States is prepared to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan if the
Afghan government negotiates in bad faith and is the main cause of collapsed or stalled negotiations. The
Afghan government will naturally have concerns over the course of negotiations, particularly because it is
dealing with a bitter enemy that it has fought for two decades. But it would make little sense for the United
States to continue to prop up a failed government or one that unjustifiably reneges on its previous
commitments.

•Provide incentives to both sides to reach a final settlement. The United States and its partners should
offer concrete benefits to achieving a peace deal. For example, the United States should consider an amnesty
to most Taliban leaders and fighters—except those involved in major human rights abuses—who lay down
their arms, provide long-term assistance to the government after a peace deal, and help integrate the Taliban
and Afghan army and police forces into a new national security structure. The United States and its partners
should also make a portion of international assistance contingent on the parties reaching a final settlement.

The article is a compilation of different articles from council of foreign relations.

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 Abraham
Accord in a
Glance
Arsal Abbasi

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Abraham Accord in a Glance

What! It is a joint statement issued by US, UAE and

Israel on 13 Aug 2020. It jointly refers to the two
normalization agreements between UAE-Israel,
and Bahrain-Israel. The accords are named after
the patriarch Abraham, regarded as a prophet
by both the religions of Judaism and Islam

Historical
Will enhance trade and buy Significance
First public normalization of
surveillance from Israel, US’s relations between an Arab
attempt to encircle Iran country and Israel since that
of Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in
1994.

Causes

UAE says “It has ensured that there will be The Arab public has been told that this
no new settlements in West Bank—not an rapprochement has nothing to do with the
important concession as the settlements status of Palestine. It is more about
are frozen under the deal of the century”. connecting with our Jewish brothers.

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 Trump’s
Deal of the
Century
Arsal Abbasi

Deal of the century

Economic Plan Political Plan

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Property rights, ROL,

anti-corruption

Facilitate 50bn used

Promote pvt sector
investment in next growth
10 years

Opening WB and
Unleash the economy
Gaza for freedom of
potential
movt goods and ppl

Built infrastructure

Regional dev: egypt, leb,

Jordan, Israel

Economic plan:
2019

Online education

Vocational education

Empower people

Healthcare

Cultural and recreational

Help citizen and mrt

Governance

Improve governance
indicators

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West of jordan river

goes to Is

Jerusalem as Is capital

Map Connecting WB and Gaza

Palestine will accept Israel as

a Jewish state + end all Eastern Jerusalem:
terrorism a refugee camp rn

4 year freeze on
Jordan vally to Israel
settlements

Palestine in Gaza will be

Present settlements
Political Plan swap land with land near
egyptian border to Israel

Gaza's maritime border

under Is control

Return to the future

state; wont threaten Is
security

3 non-binding solutions If host country conceds

for refugees intergrate there

OIC members accept 500

refugees per year

Territory given to palestine Palestine can take that

will be undeverloped time to understand the
for 4 years plan

Means: prove worthy of 2

state solution

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National

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 Energy Crisis in
Pakistan
Syed Abdul Rahman
In a developing nation like Pakistan, a stable,
uninterrupted, and low-cost energy supply is
imperative for alleviating poverty, promoting
investment, and achieving sustainable economic
growth. Amongst the plethora of challenges
inherited at the time of assuming power, one of
the pressing challenges that the incumbent
government had to deal with is a burgeoning
energy crisis. Even though the access to
electricity for ordinary citizenry has scaled up
from a meager 59% in 1990 to around 99% in 2016
(as per published statistics), still the looming
power crisis continues the haunt the cause of
socio-economic progress of the country

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The official reports on the power sector delineate the poor state of the affairs where spiraling transmission
losses & mounting capacity payments, shortage of electricity generation, short-sighted planning coupled
with myopic policies equate into a massive energy conundrum. On average, despite having a power
generation capacity of more than what is required, still the country experiences massive blackouts (load
shedding of 5-7 hours a day for households and 1-2 hours a day for the industrial sector). This power crisis
can rightly be attributed to the incapacitated institutions, governance flaws, and uncoordinated energy
policies spanning over the last three decades. This energy crisis has a cascading impact on the
socio-economic spheres of the country as the high costs of energy tariffs continue the haunt the economic
and social progress of the country.

From an economic perspective, it is quite unnerving to witness that the circular debt that stood at Rs.1.2
trillion in 2018 now stands at a whopping Rs.2.3 trillion as of December 2020. This massive increase in the
circular debt can rightly be ascertained to the massive subsidies amounting to Rs. 1.1 trillion doled out by the
government and ever-increasing capacity payments that continue to haunt the cause of cost-effective
energy production. Owing to poor governance and a short-sighted approach, Pakistan’s energy resources
have been squandered for decades due to which the nation is confronted with a serious energy crisis that
has crippled the growth of the manufacturing and services sector and disrupted power supplies in
communities and households across the nation.

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According to a survey by the World Bank, 66.7% of the businesses in Pakistan consider electricity shortages
as a more serious impediment to sustainability than corruption (11.7%) and crime/terrorism (5.5 %). As per
estimates, the country loses 2% of its GDP due to the existing energy crisis. The Pakistan Economic Survey
2019-20 reveals a 64% increase in electricity generation capacity which spiked from 22,812 MW in June 2013
to 37,402 MW in June 2020. Despite this increase, the country is faced with an average shortfall of
4000-5000MW which is a direct result of poor governance. Pakistan’s first energy policy was formulated in
1994 (almost 47 years after independence) which is a clear testament that energy conservation was never a
priority of our policymakers. There is no single aspect to blame for this energy crisis as the energy sector is
marred by an entrenched bureaucratic culture marked by poor organization. Keeping in view these factors,
there is a dire need to induce reforms into the energy sector to rid the country of this looming energy crisis.

Though Pakistan is bestowed with a bountiful supply of renewable energy sources still the as per NEPRA
2019 report, the country is a victim of an irrational energy mix that comprises 66% power generation
through thermal sources, 24% through hydro sources, 6% from renewable sources and only 4% from nuclear
sources which escalates the generation costs. Being a country already suffering through twin deficits, the
dependence of Pakistan on oil imports is 24% which is quite high considering that 30% of the total import
bill of Pakistan comprises oil imports. Albeit, we have not learned lessons from the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979
which should have diverted our policies towards renewable energy resources at that time. According to a
report published by USAID, the country has an unexploited potential of producing 167.7 GW from solar
energy alone. The latest initiative by the government in the line of “Alternative Renewable Energy Policy” is a
positive step in this regard. This newly enacted policy targets to scale up the renewable power generation to
20% by 2025 and 30% by 2030. The shift towards a more sustainable energy mix will not only help cut down
the costs of electricity generation but will also help in
climate conservation efforts. This policy is pertinent
as the first time in history the provinces will be
consulted at least once in three years before finalizing
the quantum of renewable energy to be produced
which will ensure that the risk of excess power
generation than the actual demand will be averted
successfully. Secondly, one of the main reasons for
ever-increasing capacity payments was the unlimited
dollar indexation in the agreements made with
Independent Power Producers, and this new policy
counters this risk through factoring of currency

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devaluation via dollar indexation averting the risk of the massive increase in power tariffs owing to currency
devaluation. Thirdly, the induction of power plants through open competitive bidding as per PPRA rules will
help scale down wind and solar energy tariffs to less than 4 cents. For the first time in history, the
agreements will be made based on low-cost throughout the project rather than the upfront costs. This will
control the increase in capacity payments, further due to tax incentives offered by this new policy and for
countering the restrictions of the US-China trade war, several Chinese companies manufacturing solar
panels have expressed their interests in shifting their factories to Pakistan which is an excellent opportunity
for Pakistan to capitalize as this will not only result in technology transfer but will also help in attracting FDI
and creating job opportunities locally.

To conclude, the country is faced with a population explosion i.e. the population is growing at an alarming
rate of 2.4%. To meet the needs of its expanding population, the country focuses on an increased economic
activity to produce more goods for creating employment opportunities and alleviating poverty which
according to estimates will jump to 40% (the populace living below the poverty line) by the end of 2021. The
increased business activities, infrastructure, housing, education, and health services require more energy
consumption. It is suggested to induce technology into the sector to enhance the energy produced to
generate maximum energy output at minimum input costs. Paradoxically, energy efficiency can be used as a
tool to minimize both the consumption and generation of energy needed to fuel the economy. There is a dire
need that those at the helm of affairs take this energy conundrum seriously and devise, implement policies
and mechanisms to counter this power crisis, and regularly monitor the repercussions of these policies over
the energy sector of the country.

The writer is a qualified chartered accountant (ACA, ACCA, ACMA) working in the public sector of Pakistan.
He can be reached out at arsyed09@gmail.com | Twitter @SyedAbd90588948

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 Economic
Crisis in
Pakistan:
Challenges
and Remedies
Dawood Khan Tareen

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Why did the United Kingdom quit European Union? Why is America curious about the unstoppable
development by China? Why are the poor and the war-torn countries crumbling? The answer comes out to
be the same for all questions i.e. economic race. The economy is a development indicator of any country. The
reflection of the strength of a country is the economic status of that country. In the case of Pakistan, the
economy has been surrounded by vicious circles all around. This has been more visible in the near past due
to severe power failures, poor water management, and several other reasons. Although, the economy of the
country is stagnant for a long, however, the prospects are always there to come out of the crisis. The
preliminary steps would no doubt be difficult but they are not impossible.

It is a common practice to study the reasons and challenges of a problem. The same strategy is adopted in
this piece of writing. The reasons are identified and the solutions to them are accentuated.
The foremost reason that contributes to the already poor economy of the country is the absence of direct
taxation. The elite class of the country does not pay the taxes faithfully. Similarly, the eye of the controlling
authorities is not vigilant enough to minimize the economical loss in such a fashion. The government is
supposed to activate the check and balance, particularly in this portion to ameliorate the generation of a
greater revenue per annum.

Along with less revenue generation, the higher number of imports equally weaken the economic structure of
the country. The number of exports is far less than the number of imports. This results in a trade deficit that
negatively impacts the balance of payment. The dwindling use of the local items needs to be discouraged and
all the necessary actions shall be taken to enhance the use of local productions.

Moving ahead, the lack of a good governing structure has always been playing a supreme role in the
destruction of an economy. In this regard, some examples elucidate the statement. The governance
structures of Japan, China, the UK, and the USA are reflected by the economies of these countries. Likewise,
Malaysia’s and Bangladesh’s recent major developments signify the importance of a proper and active
running body.

Since Pakistan is an agrarian country, so agricultural products should play a handy role and contribute to the
economy-stability. However, due to many reasons, this sector does not add value to the country’s economy.
For instance, the unawareness of the modern techniques of farming results in a lesser production. However,
countries like China, South Korea, Taiwan, and tiny Singapore have adopted fruitful strategies that not only
produce more products but also require lesser economical inputs. So, Pakistan needs to inculcate awareness
among the farmers to bring the economy on a progressive track.

After the industrial revolution, a country is as strong economically as its industries. If a country has more
production centers it should be prosperous economically and vice versa. In this context, it is pertinent to
quote the countries like Canada, Norway, and several other countries vis-à-vis to their development indices.

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Hence, the strengthening of the industrial sector is of undeniable importance due to the direct impact of
production items which polishes the state’s economy. But, in recent years, the industrial hubs have
decreased e.g. Different firms were closed in Faisalabad due to load sheddings.

An aspect that aggravates the country’s economical environment is the lack of savings. It is a well-known fact
that savings are more important if a country has its economy on a ventilator. But in Pakistan the case is
different. Not only on individual grounds are savings refrained but the same goes on the governmental levels.
Savings is necessary on every platform to boost the economy of a country.

Another side of the weakening economy of Pakistan is the production of many graduated students who do
not possess skills. Such students can not help in elevating the country’s economy. So, it’s quite better to
create opportunities for the students that help them absorb and practice the skills and become a valuable
contributor to society.

Out of many, the most important obstacles which do not allow the economy of Pakistan to reach a climax are
its health and education sectors. These two sectors are equally good players when it comes to the economy.
However, if they are weak they highlight the shrinkage of the economy of a country.

Now, coming towards the measures that will take the country out of the quagmire; there is a dire need for
proper collection of taxes. Besides, a new strategy may be adopted instead of indirect taxes. The poor class
suffers more than the higher class due to such type of taxation. Direct tax policy needs to be implemented to
decrease the grievances and miseries of the common man and daily wagers. Such policy will stabilize the
economically crippling group.

For the same cause, the governing structure ought to begin utilizing the local items. This will kill two birds
with one stone. i.e. The import rate will decrease and the GDP will increase. Albeit, the GDP of the country
which was 5.8 % two years ago has dropped down to less than 1 % revealing threatening posts ahead. The
pestilence too adds fuel to the fire.

As stated, the governance of a country directly impacts its economy. Good structures mark the economy on
the top of the list. Unfortunately, the governance of Pakistan has always played role in the economic
downfall. It cannot be forgotten that South Korea demanded the “Five-year plan” policy back in the sixties.
Today, they are way ahead in terms of economy than Pakistan.

It is feasible to construct agrarian-based industries. Such planning will flourish the sectors of industry in the
light of agriculture. E.g. The agricultural product cotton can be converted into wool and other forms. These
conversions will not only elevate the GDP, but it will also positively affect the export rate. It is noticeable that
Bangladesh’s highly rising GDP is due to the second-largest production of apparel after China in the world.
Therefore, this can let the chasm in the deficit come down considerably.

Likewise, new firms can be built and the closed ones can be restarted. As stated above this again will hit the
graph rate of imported, in fact, luxurious things and put a full stop to the widening space in the trade deficit.

Moreover, there is a good way to cease the momentum of the vicious circle. It is “saving” by every individual
and department. It is worth saving that a state cannot come out of the crisis until it considers the issue as
national agenda. The elite class ought to become austere. The poor have become already austere due to
inflation generally and the COVID-19 particularly.

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One considerable point is the provision of the best health facilities to the patients and quality education to
the youth. More than 60 % of the country’s population comprises young community. Entertaining them with
proper education shall minimize poverty, create job opportunities and strengthen the administrative
sections. Also, such institutions, that provide technical skills to the youth, should be maximized. Because it is
these skills that are making Bangladesh the would-be Asian Tiger. Moreover, the UN announced to get out
Bangladesh from the list of least developed countries by 2024. Keeping in view the cited hurdles, some other
techniques too can stand to be beneficial. They are stated below.

A zero-tolerance policy needs to be implemented in

every sector and each department. Out of every
hundred rupees, thirty-eight rupees are leaked,
when spent on the welfare of the public. This is
equivalent to 40 %. Likewise, corruption and
pilferage shall be immediately reported. Moreover, a
greater quota of GDP shall be allocated for the
education sector in Pakistan. This allocation is less
than 2 % in the country which is 4 to 5 % in
Bangladesh and 4 to 6 % in India. Apart from all the
above, remittance importance is valuable.

In short, the economic crisis in Pakistan is occupying more space every next day. The governing body is not
performing up to the mark, the export rate is negligible, inflation is rising exponentially, the agriculture
sector is giving lesser output, the firms are closing more and the youth particularly is fighting with the
quality of education which can result in the production of uneducated employment soon. All these problems
are supposed to be resolved and mitigated at the earliest to get rid of the menace and become a grown
economical state because a peaceful tomorrow is contingent upon economy and jobs.

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 Kashmir
Crisis-
Historical
Timeline
Arsal Abbasi

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Covid Special
Important Readings From 2020
on Global Pandemic

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 The World After
Pandemic
Maryam

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One day, the battle against the novel coronavirus will be won. But the world that emerges may look very
different from the one we lived in before the pandemic began. Right now, a GLOBAL war is being waged
against a pandemic that may change the world. The crisis has amplified existing challenges and
vulnerabilities that require a global response.

The pandemic will change the future international order of the world and also several changes within the
states. Author of Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari, puts it well in a recent essay. He writes, “Many short-term
emergency measures will become a fixture of life. That is the nature of emergencies. They fast-forward
historical processes. Decisions that in normal times could take years of deliberation are passed in a matter of
hours. Immature and even dangerous technologies are pressed into service, because the risks of doing
nothing are bigger.” The coronavirus health crisis/emergency has for sure fast forwarded the historical
processes.

Dynamics of International world order

The world is in fact passing through one of history’s most unsettled periods and a number of trends are
being observed reconfiguring the international landscape during the pandemic: retreat from multilateralism
at a time of multipolarity, anti-globalization sentiment, erosion of a rules-based international order, trade
and technology wars between big powers and the rise of populist leaders who reject internationalism, pursue
ultra-nationalist policies and act unilaterally. Therefore, the international world order is not likely to remain
the one based on globalization and internationalism. It will more likely be and internationalism confined
within nationalism and more autocratic governments.

Future of globalization
The ongoing crisis showed how interconnected and interdependent the world
is and that no country can deal with the challenge on its own. But it also
exposed the deep divisions between and within countries as they struggled to
confront the havoc wrought by an unforgiving enemy.

The COVID-19 pandemic will not fundamentally alter global economic

directions. It will only accelerate a change that had already begun: a move away
from U.S.-centric globalization to a more China-centric globalization. In
particular, the coronavirus pandemic had devastating repercussions for
corporations and businesses that have benefited from economic
interdependence supported by cross-border supply chains. China is the
world’s largest production base, and lies at the heart of many supply chains.
Since the outbreak of this coronavirus, many companies that had come to
depend on China were hard hit.

In short, national borders may become less porous in terms of industry and the
movement of people when compared to the 30 years of globalization seen
since the end of the Cold War, with sharper lines drawn between domestic and
foreign and a move away from dependence on international relationships.

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Declined importance of multilateral institutions

The pandemic has also put a deep question mark on the authority and the existence of multilateral
institutions. The challenge to multilateralism and its institutions in recent years has not just come from
Trump’s America but other nations and regional powers too, who have acted unilaterally in defiance of
established international norms. Therefore, the wrangle between Trump and the WHO only shone another
light on how multilateral institutions are under profound stress in the contemporary international milieu.
Weakened commitment to multilateralism continues to be an unedifying feature of the global environment
today.

Pandemic has served as a boon for digital Authoritarianism

The pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. Governments of all types will adopt
emergency measures to manage the crisis, and many will be loath to relinquish these new powers when the
crisis is over.

The case in study is China. While China’s anti-epidemic technologies may be helping some countries curb
the immediate threat of the virus, they also carry an inherent risk of co-optation by authoritarian regimes
seeking to consolidate authority. As China’s sophisticated public surveillance platforms—enhanced with AI
technology, location-tracking software, and personal data integration techniques—diffuse around the globe,
recipient governments gain access to a readily-used authoritarian toolkit that can be easily retooled from its
original public health purpose. This technology poses a particular risk to fragile democracies and countries
in the developing world, where civil society is weak but Chinese influence is growing.

In the Post-Pandemic World, Big Brother Will Be Watching

Governments around the world have assumed unprecedented control over their citizens’ daily lives in
response to the coronavirus. Get ready for the new normal: Opportunism and fear will lead many
governments to leave some of their newly acquired powers in place. Democracies and dictatorships alike
have closed borders, imposed quarantines, shut down much of the economy, and implemented a variety of
testing, tracing, and surveillance regimes in order to contain the infection. Those that acted fastest and
adopted more stringent measures have been most successful. Leaders who denied, dissembled, and delayed
are responsible for thousands of preventable deaths.

The Shape of Future Government Will Be Forged in Asia

The coronavirus pandemic is set to usher in a new era of bigger, more intrusive government in almost every
advanced economy—but that change will be felt most dramatically in Asian nations that have long prided
themselves on their relatively lean, minimal states. The pandemic will usher in a new era of bigger, more
intrusive government in almost every advanced economy.

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Local Government Will Emerge Stronger After the Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic is exposing the quality of governments around the world. Many national leaders
have failed the test—in contrast to the leaders of regions and cities, who have faced the pandemic head-on
in their communities, showed greater competence, and earned the trust of their constituents. In the
process, the virus is clarifying the division of powers between different levels of government and
strengthening the hand of regions and cities.

This Pandemic Can Serve a Useful Purpose

Three things seem apparent. First, the coronavirus pandemic will change our politics, both within states and
between them. It is to the power of government that societies—even libertarians—have turned.
Government’s relative success in overcoming the pandemic and its economic effects will exacerbate or
diminish security issues and the recent polarization within societies. Either way, government is back.
Experience so far shows that authoritarians or populists are no better at handling the pandemic. Indeed, the
countries that responded early and successfully, such as Korea and Taiwan, have been democracies—not
those run by populist or authoritarian leaders.

Conclusion
THE future holds much uncertainty with an unfolding health crisis convulsing the world. But the reality that
will continue to shape the post-pandemic world is this. While unprecedented global cooperation and a
collective response will be needed to negotiate multiple challenges — threats to public health, economic
recovery, food security, looming recession and unemployment — many countries will tend to turn inwards
and act on their own. This paradox did not emerge during the pandemic. It has been evident in recent years
but thrown into sharper relief by the Covid-19 crisis

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 Has COVID 19
Killed
Globalization?
Kamil Mushtaq

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Major crises have major consequences. The Great

Depression of 1930s spurred hyper-nationalism,
fascim and World War 2; the 9-11 attacks brought two
failed American interventions and never-ending global
war on terror; the financial crisis of 2008 generated
anti-establishment populism that rose leaders across
the globe; the Arab Spring in the earlier years of the
last decade ushered an era of deadly proxy wars that
resulted in millions of casualties. Future historians will
account for unprecedented transformations unleashed
by the forces of the ongoing novel pandemic, COVID
19, which took the world by storm, and it remains to
be seen whether COVID 19 would have a long lasting
impact on the fate of globalization, or it has the
potential to thrive in future and keep the world ever so connected. Several scholars opine that the ongoing
pandemic will bring down the curtain on the fate of globalization. Here, I ll try to debunk all such myths
surrounding the pessimist fate of globalization, and why I believe it would still be able to find a way to
dominate in future, despite of certain downsides when it comes to tackling crises times.

Globalization faced numerous blows in the past, and the global community is no stranger to the debate of the
decline of globalization. This can, certainly, be accredited to the lack of collaboration and consensus on
transnational and cross border problems in the past. The failure of United Nations and other regional
organizations to combat terrorism and bring global peace is one manifestation, climate change catastrophe
being another. Similar pattern of failure can also be observed in the financial institutions like IMF, World
Bank, World Trade Organizations etc. which were established with the purpose to eradicate gross economic
inequalities, global poverty, food insecurity; however, these institutions led to further economic stagnation of
the third world. Despite of all harsh realities, repeated failures and certain shortcomings, it continues to
emerge out as ultimate victor. The UK Brexit, being the most recent example, proved the skeptics wrong who
had labeled the major incident as the fracture point of the globalism; however, the global community
continues to remain intermingled despite of such a huge setback. Needless to say, it takes more than a mere
pandemic to bring an end to what seems to be ultimate fate of the global society.

Serious dent to the fate of globalization was, however, provided by the recent global pandemic, posing
serious question marks on its efficacy to deal with the crises times. As a result, the global economy
succumbed to the unfamiliar forces and plummeted even below the figures of the Financial Crisis of 2008.
The volume of global goods exports in 2020 could fall to a level last seen in the mid-to-late 2000s, according
to the latest WTO forecast. Moreover, current forecasts, while inevitably rough at this stage, call for a 13-32%
decline in merchandise trade, a 30-40% reduction in foreign direct investment as per Harvard Business
Review. These numbers imply a major rollback of globalization’s recent gains, but they do not signal a
fundamental collapse of international market integration, for the recent forecasts call for international flows
to start growing again as the pandemic comes under control. Some countries have already started to get back

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to the pre pandemic regulations, and some are planning to do so as early as next month. Thus, 2020 is likely
to be a low point for many globalization metrics but, certainly, not the extinction point. The cross-border
movement and international travel also suffered huge losses. However, such collapse, in contrast, stands out
against a much steadier growth trend, and its damage is indisputable. As of late April 2020, every country had
imposed restrictions on international travel, and 45% of countries had partially or completely closed their
borders to foreign visitors which took a huge toll on global economy as the revenue from tourism contributes
more towards the global output than the automotive manufacturing, and business travel facilitates
international trade and investment. This unprecedented collapse, however, does follow an international travel
boom but it would still be very pessimist to believe that the pre-pandemic globalized community would tend
to stay in such an isolated state for long. For instance, even if the international airline passengers fall by
two-thirds, there would still be more people flying abroad than there were in 2003. Thus, the death of
globalization, as an aftermath of COVID 19, certainly, doesn’t look like a possible outcome.

There is a certain faction of skeptics, however, who believe that the process of de-globalization, a term
coined by many international relations scholars, started way earlier than the arrival of the novel pandemic,
and there’s no denying that fact. The global society was already on a move towards revival of populism based
order, as can be witnessed in the context of the rise of certain nationalist leaders on the realm of global
affairs: Putin in Russia, Trump in USA, Modi in India and many others in different parts of the globe. This not
only depicts their subsequent rise to the uppermost echelons of power but also expresses the nationalist
sentiments of the voting masses, clearly showing signs of transformation in outlook in the context of how
international community shapes up in future. Still, there remain certain questions unanswered: Is the process
of de-globalization inevitable or can it be prevented? Has COVID 19 accelerated the process? Will globalized
community find a way out? Such questions take birth, every now and then, because of gross disparities of
globalization in its delivery of prospects, and to say that the pandemic will bring about the downfall of what
seems to be the ultimate fate of the international society would be a bold statement. Major testing events in
the past like financial crisis of 2008 and the recent UK Brexit bear testimony of its ultimate triumph despite
of certain downsides; however, it did make global community start looking for an alternative, to ensure
equity at least. So, in answer to the stated question, the globalization would continue to dominate in future,
but it, surely, won’t run unchallenged, owing to inefficacy to tackle the crises times. Thus, in a nutshell,
Covid-19 looks like a “bend but won’t break crisis” for globalization. International flows are plummeting, but
globalization — and opposition to globalization — will continue to present business opportunities and
challenges in the future. However, the drivers of globalization need to curb the reverse process of
de-globalization by ensuring plurality of ideas at international platforms and corporations. Now is the time
for them to show their value by harnessing the best of the world’s capabilities to end the pandemic and
bolster the recovery.

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Essay Outlines

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1. Real Development
should transform
people’s lives, not just
economic statistics
Thesis Statement
Although conventional
macro-economic indicators of
development like GDP and GNP
summarize a country’s overall
economic performance, they fail
to capture the true picture of
people’s well-being within the
society. Real development is
people-centric human
development which not only
enlarges people’s freedoms and
opportunities on an equitable
basis but also brings about a
meaningful change in their
everyday lives
1. Introduction
2. Conceptualizing the idea
of Development
•UNDP defines development as a
process which improves the
social, political and economic
well-being of common people by
producing real-life consequences
3. Conventional
macro-economic indicators
are an accurate measure of
development: A Counter
Viewpoint
• GDP which measures the market
value of all final goods and
services produced in a period of
time
• Stock Market Index which
measures the performance of
stock market
• Foreign exchange reserves
• National debt
4. The concept of Real
Development is based on the
following parameters:
• Rule of Law
• Political freedom and civil
liberties
• Gender equality
• Progressive taxation to minimize
economic inequalities
• Equitable access to quality
education and healthcare
• A responsive and efficient
criminal justice system
• Protection of minority rights
5. Improvement in
conventional
macro-economic statistics
doesn’t necessarily lead to
Read Development
6. How does Real
Development transform
people’s lives?
a) Rule of law ensures that all
people have equal legal status and
no one enjoys special privileges
b) Political freedom with
accountability develops
responsive political institutions
c) Gender equality makes sure
effective participation of women
in economic workforce
d) Equitable access to education
and employment produces
opportunities for upward social
mobility
e) An efficient criminal justice
system protects the fundamental
rights of people against the abuse
of power
7. Real Development can be
measured by following
modern indicators:
• Human Development Index of
UNDP developed by Dr. Mahboob
ul Haq of Pakistan
• Rule of Law Index of World
Justice Project
• Gender Development Index
(GDI) of European Union
• Political Freedom Index of
Freedom World
• Human Happiness Index of
UNESCO
8. Case Studies of countries
with inflated conventional
economic statistics but poor
condition of Real
Development
a) Saudi Arabia has high GDP but
limited political openness
• 19th highest GDP in the world
but 159th in Political Freedom
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Index
b) United Arab Emirates has
gender disparities in many fields
despite its high GDP
• 2nd highest GDP in Middle East
but ranks 72nd in GDI
c) India is a member of G-20 with
6th highest GDP in the world
despite the deteriorating condi-
tion of human rights
• Increasing inequalities – 130th in
HDI
• Increasing gender based
violence – 127th in GDI
• Persecution of Minorities – 66th
in Rule of Law Index
9. How are Nordic countries
leading the way in Real
Development?
• World Happiness Index
Finland(1), Sweden(2), Switzer-
land(3)
• Rule of Law Index Denmark(1),
Norway(2), Sweden(3)
• Lowest Poverty Rates in the
World Iceland(5.7%), Den-
mark(6%), Finland(7.5%)
• Highest ranking for protecting
workers’ rights on ILU’s Global
Rights Index Denmark(1)
10. How can the countries
accelerate the process of real
development?
a) Governments should prioritize
welfare-centric human develop-
ment programs by investing in
quality public education and
health
b) Policies should be adapted to
eradicate poverty and unemploy-
ment
c) Policies of progressive taxations
should be enacted
d) Institutional and policy reforms
for the empowerment of women
must be undertaken
e) Access of Justice for common
people should be made easier by
bringing reforms in the Criminal
Justice System
11. Conclusion
• Real development improves the
democratic and economic
well-being of all the people in the
society instead of just inflating
conventional economic statistics
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2. Crisis of Good
Governance in
Pakistan. Need for
reforms & Institution
building?
Thesis Statement:
“Although Pakistan suffers from a
grave crisis of good governance,
there is a workable solution
through institutional building
aimed at administrative,
economic, and political reforms
along with use of evidence-based
policy making and technological
interventions in governance.”
I. Introduction
II. How can the term Good
Governance be
conceptualized?
1. Good Governance entails how
public institutions conduct public
affairs as well as how public
resources are managed in a
preferred manner.
2. According to UN, it has 8 major
characteristics:
a. Participation— Quality of civil
society and its participation in
decision-making;
b. Consensus Oriented—
Mediation between interest
groups & sustainable planning
c. Accountability— Quality of
democracy and accountability
institutions;
d. Transparency— Ease of
availability of information to those
affected by decisions
e. Responsiveness— Service
delivery within reasonable
timeframe;
f. Effectiveness and
Efficiency— Policies meet the
needs of society by making best
use of available resources;
g. Equitability and
Inclusiveness — Participation
and wellbeing of vulnerable
groups;
h. Rule of law— Fair legal
framework enforced impartially.
III. How is there a crisis of
good governance in Pakistan
based on these indicators?
1. Participation: Pakistan’s
political elite is dominated by
Feudal-Industrialist nexus; hence,
middle-class and working-class
voices are structurally excluded
from the decision-making
process.
2. Consensus Oriented: Due to
elite capture, policies in Pakistan
tend to favor the rich and
powerful at the cost of wider
societal interest.
3. Accountability: Impartial and
across the board accountability
has been undermined by repeated
Martial Laws, questionable
electoral results, and
dysfunctional and politicized
accountability institutions.
4. Transparency: Access to
important information is closely
guarded by government agencies
which hinder the ability of
independent experts to provide
their technical analysis.
5. Responsiveness: Due to
bureaucratic red tape and backlog
of cases, service delivery is
extremely slow and both
civil-criminal cases take decades
to get resolved by Judiciary.
6. Effectiveness and
Efficiency: Policies are drafted
for short-term political gains
rather than long-term sustainable
solutions.
7. Equity and Inclusiveness:
Vulnerable groups, such as
women and minorities, lack
appropriate representation within
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the policy-framework and, thus,
systematically disenfranchised.
8. Rule of law: The condition of
Human Rights and the
enforcement of laws remain poor
in Pakistan due to capacity
constraints and political pressures
on public administrators, such as
District Administration and Police.
IV. What are the causative
factors of the crisis of good
governance in Pakistan?
1.An interplay of historical and
structural forces has caused the
current crisis of good governance,
which includes:
i. Colonial Legacy leading to
extractive institutions;
ii. Civil-Military power-imbalance
leading to military dictatorships;
iii. Patronage networks hampering
governance by systems;
iv. Compartmentalization of
government institutions
hampering collective action.
V. What are the reforms
needed for
institution-building and
improving governance in
Pakistan?
1. Administrative Reforms
a. Civil Servants need to be given
constitutional protection and
tenure security.
b. District Administration and
Police needs to be empowered
with both resources and
manpower.
c. Community policing needs to
be introduced.
2. Economic Reforms
a. Competition Commission of
Pakistan (CCP) must play an active
role in checking monopolies and
oligopolies that stifle economic
growth in the country.
b. Tax reforms should be
conducted to widen the tax net
and increase revenues.
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c. Unnecessary governmental
regulations on businesses should
be cut in order to enhance Easy of
Doing Business and supporting
entrepreneurial rigor in the
economy.
3. Political Reforms
a. Local Governments should be
introduced, sustained and
empowered.
b. Creation of new provinces and
Bicameral Provincial legislatures
are required to check the uneven
development.
c. Federal bodies, such as CCI,
NFC and Parliamentary Standing
Committees must play an active
role.
4. Evidence-Based Policy
Design:
a. Rather than based on ideologies
or political expediency, policy
decisions should be informed by
rigorously established objective
evidence.
b. Using Randomized-Control
Trials (RCTs) can bring rigor to the
process of determining what
works — and what does not — in
public policy.
c. Use of Big Data analytics can
break the departmental silos and
can help solve the wicked
problems of society.
5. Technological Interventions
in Governance
a. Use of modern technological
tools, especially digital-tech, can
have a transformative impact on
the effectiveness of service
delivery, such as:
i. E-Governance;
ii. Digitization of file work;
iii. Internet of Things in
Urban design;
6. Public Private Partnerships
a. Government agencies need to
collaborate with Private Sector, as
well as outsource some of its
functions, to save cost and
increase Value for Money,
especially in large projects. 2. Rule of Law Will Remain
an Impracticable Myth in
VI. What are the
Pakistan
international best practices
that can guide Pakistan’s 2.1. The principles of rule of law
journey towards good embody the notion that no one is
above the law, but the behavior of
governance?
its torch-bearers reflects nothing
short of hooliganism:
1. China undertook similar
2.1.1. Lawyer’s attack on hospitals
sweeping administrative, political
in Lahore
and economic reforms under the
leadership of Deng Xiaoping, that
2.2. Pakistan’s performance on the
has transformed it into one of the
Rule of Law Index has remained
fast-growing economies in the
unsatisfactory:
world.
2.2.1. The index measures
constraints on government power,
2. After independence from
corruption, fundamental rights,
Soviet occupation in 1991, Estonia
regulatory enforcement, civil and
transformed itself from a
criminal justice and more.
destitute nation to a developed
2.2.2. Pakistan was ranked 120th
country with a decade through its
out of 123 on the Index in the year
e-Estonia Project. Today, it is the
2020
most digitally advanced society in
the world.
2.3. The criminal justice system is
marked with serious deficiencies,
VII. Conclusion which makes dispersion of justice
difficult:
3. Will Rule of Law 2.3.1. absence of a witness
protection program;
Remain an 2.3.2. outdated evidence laws;
Impracticable Myth in 2.3.3. absence of legal aid.
Our Country? 2.4. Anatol Lieven in his book
Pakistan a Hard Country, writes
Thesis Statement:
that Pakistan’s kinship networks
work antithetical to rule of law
Rule of law, despite some islands
2.4.1. They protect their members
of improvement, remains largely
from the sanctions of state
an impracticable myth for most of
the people of Pakistan, and
2.5. Speedy trials to relief the rich
especially the poorest.
and influential is a norm in
Pakistan
1. Introduction
1.1. When states fail to provide
relief to their citizens, the citizens
take law in their own hands.
1.2. “Absolute Supremacy or
predominance of the regular law
as oppose to the influences of the
arbitrary power” – A.V. Diecy’s
definition of rule of law.
1.3. Thesis: Rule of law, despite
some islands of improvement,
remains largely an impracticable
myth for most of the people of
Pakistan, and especially the
poorest.
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2.6. Substantive rule of law is
missing from most of the
country’s laws:
2.6.1. For example, the penal code
defines suicide— a serious mental
health issue— as a crime.
2.7. The constitutional order is not
followed in spirit:
2.7.1. Christophe Jaffrelot’s
Pakistan Paradox: democratically
elected leaders show
authoritarian tendencies.
2.8. The courts are under the
mounting burden of unheard
cases and most of these cases
take years to resolve:
2.8.1. Over 2 million cases are
pending in Pakistan
2.8.2. “Justice delayed is justice
denied”
3. Rule of Law Situation in
Pakistan Is Changing and It
Will Become a Reality Soon
3.1. The judiciary has achieved
independence:
3.1.1. This independence does not
solve the problems of judicial
structures, outdated laws, and the
embarrassing behaviors of the
lawyers.
3.2. There have been a lot of social
issues taken up by the courts, and
they have improved the human
rights:
3.2.1. Only cases that become high
profile are resolved
3.3. Recently, counts have taken
unprecedented decisions against
the elite
3.3.1. However, calls for across the
board accountability remain
4. Conclusion
4.1. “Equality, justice, and fairness
to everybody” – Quaid-e-Azam
Muhammad Ali Jinnah
4. Climate Change and
Ways to Counter It?
Thesis Statement:
The present climate change is
anthropogenic, and it might lead
to the demise of this planet;
therefore, it must be countered.
1. Introduction
1.1. In the year 1992, the Rio
Summit was held, which promised
preservation of the planet for its
future generation. In 2019, that
generation was out in the street
protesting and demanding a strict
action to counter climate change.
1.2. Climate Change is a natural
process of a gradual alteration in
the weather patterns in the
atmosphere of the earth.
However, the current climate
change is an accelerated impact of
the human activities.
1.3. Thesis: the present climate
change is anthropogenic, and it
might lead to the demise of this
planet; therefore, it must be
countered.
2. Understanding the causes
of climate change: Is it
anthropogenic?
2.1. Global Warming is both a
cause and evidence of Climate
Change:
2.1.1. Burning fossil fuel for energy;
2.1.2. Pollution from industry and
transport.
2.2. Natural causes of climate
change—volcanic activity and
plates tectonic movements— don’t
explain the rate of climate change:
2.2.1. Green House Gas Effect.
2.3. Human activity in the
post-industrial revolution world
has unprecedently increased the
level of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere
2.3.1. IPCC: In 1750 was only 250
parts per million level of carbon in
the environment, now it is
crossing 400 parts per million.
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2.4. The rate of global warming
has increased after 1800
2.4.1. IPCC’s hockey stick graph
2.5. An unparalleled growth of the
human population has led to
increased demand for food:
2.5.1. Global population had a 174%
increase from 1950-2010 (Pew
Research);
2.5.2. Demand for food leads to
soil depletion, pollution through
fertilizers and pesticides.
2.6. Deforestation to meet the
land requirements of an
increasing urbanized world:
2.6.1. Its giving the planet a lung
cancer, and reducing its ability to
absorb carbon dioxide;
2.6.2. It harms the eco-systems
and create imbalances in the
environment.
3. Consequences of Climate
Change: End of the World
3.1. Extreme weather conditions
all over the world are a direct
result of climate change:
3.1.1. Heatwaves and sweating
Europeans;
3.1.2. In 2019 flooding and rain
conditions in Iran led to worst
locust attack in 25 years in South
Asia.
3.2. It is causing many deaths
around the world:
3.2.1. In 2019 alone, 1435 people
died in France due to the
heatwave.
3.3. Climate Change will eat up
many archipelagos
3.4. It is worsening the migrant
crisis:
3.4.1. In 2018, UN estimates some
20,000 people were becoming
climate refugees due to floods in
Afghanistan.
3.5. It is causing economic loss to
many countries around the world
3.5.1. Pakistan lost $384 to climate
change in 2018
3.6. Marine pollution and loss of
biodiversity
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4. Ways to Counter Climate

Change

4.1. Mitigation and Adaptation

4.2. Implementation of the Paris

Climate Agreement
4.2.1. “Climate Change does not
respect borders; it does not
respect who you are, rich and
poor, small or big. Therefore, this
is what we call a ‘global challenge’
which requires global solidarity.” –
Ban ki Moon

4.3. March for Climate Action

4.3.1. “This is the biggest crisis
humanity has ever faced. This is
not something you can like on
Facebook” – Greta Thunberg

4.4. Replacing fossil fuels with

cleaner renewable energy

4.5. Banning and replacing single

use plastics with bioplastics

4.6. Environmental policy should

be at core of every policy.

5. Conclusion

5.1. IPCC: the world has 2030 to

reverse the Climate Change
5.2. “I don’t want your hope. I
don’t want you be hopeful. I want
you to panic and act as if your
house was on fire.” – Greta
Thunberg

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Monthly
Press Review

46
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Monthly administration. label this crime a “genocide” and

punitive measures against China

Press Review U.S. Increasingly Tough on have begun to mount, including

China U.S. sanctions. Over the past year
President Donald Trump began or more, Beijing has expanded this

The Trump 2020 by inking a trade deal with

China while backing off on tariffs
campaign to other non-Han
Chinese ethnic groups. Xi’s
Administration in return. There is significant elimination of self rule in Hong

’s Final China doubt about how effective this Kong constitutes another major
deal was, but there is no doubt human rights violation as well as
Push that Beijing continued an array of
other activities inimical to U.S.
an abrogation of its treaty with
the U.K.
Published in The Diplomat interests. We can broadly group
these “malign activities” into three The second punitive measure –
categories: threats to economic the one that most affects the
Much has been made in recent
interests, threats to security U.S.-China policy watching
weeks of the United States’
interests, and human rights community – was eliminating the
increasingly combative stance
abuses. The administration went State Department’s restrictions on
toward China. Beijing bristled as
on to spend much of 2020 putting engagement with Taiwan. Taylor
former Secretary of State Michael
Congressionally authorized Fravel of MIT characterized this as
Pompeo and others introduced
sanctions in place to impose costs a “move as far toward de facto
sanctions, removed official
on these malign behaviors. These recognition of Taiwan as his
restrictions on exchanges with
have arguably been the first and authorities as Sec of State allow”
Taiwan, made public a strategic
most substantive measures taken and “leaving a flaming diplomatic
framework for the Indo-Pacific,
during the Trump administration. turd for the new administration,”
and on the Trump administration’s
among other choice words. He
final full day in office released
The malign economic activities in may have a point on the former,
statements from Pompeo that the
question include unfair trade but I would respectfully disagree
Chinese government is engaged in
conditions, violations of China’s with the latter.
“genocide.”
commitment to the World Trade
Organization, and outright U.S. policy toward Taiwan has
Experts have criticized these
commercial theft, among others. long been bounded by the three
moves (e.g. here, here, and here),
Such charges have greater validity joint U.S.-China communiques,
with some suggesting that the
than they otherwise might due to the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, and
outgoing administration was
the tight control central President Reagan’s Six Assurances
attempting to “box in” or even
authorities exercise over even to Taiwan. While nothing in these
“trap” the Biden administration
private businesses. On the items categorically forbade
(which the Trump campaign
security front, abuses include high-level U.S.-Taiwan exchanges,
criticized as being “soft” on China)
Beijing’s militarization of the the cooperative tenor of
into a hardline stance. But in light
South China Sea, harassment of U.S.-China relations incentivized
of Americans’ dimming view of an
neighboring democracies, and Washington to tread lightly on
increasingly aggressive China,
questionable activities worldwide. Taiwan issues, a posture that was
these moves are unlikely to
translated into the restrictions.
change the basic trajectory of
U.S.-China relations. Indeed, they The Chinese government’s
foremost human rights abuse is its These recently removed rules are
are more bark than bite. We might
campaign of “ethnic assimilation” laid out in the State Department’s
better see them as outgoing
– or elimination – against Turkic Foreign Affairs Manual and
officials seizing the moment to
peoples in what Beijing refers to Handbook. While Beijing may at
finish out desired initiatives while
as the Xinjiang Uyghur some level disapprove of the
showing what they have
Autonomous Region. Pressure has changes, we should remember
accomplished during a
increased throughout 2020 to that these documents are
particularly difficult and thankless

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applicable only within the U.S.
government. In other words, this
is none of Beijing’s business. To
act as though China had any right
whatsoever to comment on
internal U.S. agency regulations
speaks to American overeagerness
to propitiate Beijing. At a time
when China is increasingly
aggressive toward the United
States and other democratic
countries, such a compromising
posture is likely to be received
coolly in Beijing.
Having worked under these
strictures for many years, I will
concede that it does feel like a big
change. That said, the secretary’s
statement was quite clear that
engagement would continue to be
managed by the American
Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the
institution that functions in place
of an American embassy on the
island. In essence, AIT and the
State Department retain full
control over visiting officials and
other engagements, as they
always have.
Moreover, this change is precisely
in line with Congressional
mandates to increase engagement
with Taiwan, a democratic island
under escalating threat from
China. For all the hubbub, this is a
policy change in name only about
which China can voice no
legitimate objection. It is the visits
themselves that Beijing objects to
and those will still be tightly
controlled. We should also
remember that the United States
called off its U.N. ambassador’s
scheduled trip last week.
The third step was the U.S.
National Security Council (not the
State Department) releasing its
U.S. Strategic Framework for the
Indo-Pacific. Former Assistant
Secretary of State Danny Russel
expressed doubts while Ryan Hass
of the Brookings Institution was
also uneasy with the release.
Some also saw it as a direct
attempt to “lock in” the incoming
Biden-Harris administration’s
policies toward China
In reality, the document is already
three years old, not overly
specific, and is regional, not global
in focus. Its most significant
top-level measure is arguably U.S.
coordination with Australia, India,
and Japan, the so-called “Quad.” It
is inward-looking, describing for
U.S. government personnel how
they should coordinate a regional
response to emerging threats, as
opposed to the Indo-Pacific
Strategy Report, an appeal for
global cognizance and
cooperation on these issues. The
precise manner in which the
Biden administration continues or
alters the measures within the
framework will be of interest to
policy experts but few others.
Indeed, it seems unlikely that
much will change.
Finally, Pompeo, in one of his final
acts as secretary of state on
January 19, officially pronounced
that China’s government is
engaged in genocide: “I believe
this genocide is ongoing, and that
we are witnessing the systematic
attempt to destroy Uighurs by the
Chinese party-state.” Randy
Schriver made a similarly stark
accusation in 2019 as assistant
secretary of defense, but that of
course was not at the level of a
cabinet secretary. It is tempting to
say that this move signals a more
official break with Beijing. Of
course the Biden campaign has
said this much already, although it
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is much less costly for a campaign
to make such a statement than an
administration (as with Trump’s
call as president-elect to Taiwan’s
President Tsai Ing-wen).
One last point of note: Pompeo
did not refer to the people or
nation of East Turkestan, which
China has for centuries attempted
to absorb into itself as “Xinjiang.”
Acknowledging the separate
character of any region Beijing
claims as its own would have been
a larger step than acknowledging
some form of genocide, but
Pompeo did not do that
However unusual it is for nations
to continue diplomatic relations
while one accuses the other of
genocide, it is still difficult to see
this as more than a simple
restatement of past assertions,
and importantly a factual one. The
test for Biden will come when he
is asked for his stance as
president. It is very difficult
indeed to see what value might
come from backing off an
otherwise valid assertion.
None of this is to say there will be
no opposition or that these
measures are not important.
Indeed, Beijing sanctioned 28
Americans it claims “seriously
violated China’s sovereignty” –
including Pompeo and a number
of other Trump administration
officials – on January 20. But such
measures do not change the
underlying tenor of the
relationship, which is already
strained, nor do they force the
Biden administration into any
particular position.
It is tempting to say that if
President Biden sought Chinese
cooperation on environmental
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issues, Beijing might demand he
back away from some of the above
measures. However, it seems
likely that for the reasons given
only the sanctions truly concern
Xi. Importantly, after the duplicity
Xi displayed toward President
Barack Obama – even while his
administration did its utmost to
mollify Xi – Biden is likely to be
wary of chimerical cooperation
with a China that has gone from
merely threatening to outright
hostile in many ways. Meaningful
cooperation would have to be
based on verifiable results.
Official Motives
Are these moves tied to Pompeo’s
political ambitions? The least we
can say is that Pompeo (along with
former National Security Advisor
Robert O’Brien) is defending his
record and attempting to burnish
his bona fides. Unfortunately for
Pompeo, the administration’s
advances toward Mideast peace,
arguably its greatest foreign
policy success, seem to be more
creditable to Jared Kushner and
the president himself. Instead it
seems that Pompeo has done
much of the hard work attempting
to keep alliances together and
building new partnerships, even
while Trump has seemed gleefully
intent on torpedoing them.
Pompeo was able to use his
pugilistic style to good effect
fending off “gotcha” questions
while competently shepherding
the workings of U.S. foreign policy
through a difficult period.
The Washington Post reported
that Pompeo’s actions against
China were meant to impress
Trump’s base, but it is hard to see
how a secretary of state or anyone
else involved in diplomacy could
really appeal to die-hard
Trumpers. Indeed, some of that
base’s ideals are coming under
intense scrutiny within the
Republican Party in connection
with the January 6 insurrection.
There is no doubting Pompeo’s
loyalty to Trump, but that was
probably not his motive. This
loyalty had its limits: It is not clear
that he ever directly enabled any
illicit behavior (despite his own
potential ethical lapses). Moreover
his pressure on China usually
appeared to be apart from
Trump’s main focus, which
throughout most of his
presidency was the trade deal. It
seems most apt to say that the
former secretary sought to
advance his favored initiatives and
showcase his accomplishments in
the most broadly appealing
manner possible, in spite of
less-than-fulsome praise for his
performance.
The Missing Link
There is general agreement that
under the Biden administration
U.S. policies toward China will
change in tone, but are unlikely to
change in substance. Those
arguing otherwise have little
recourse when confronted with
the type of threatening power
China has become. Indeed, the
Democratic bloc has
fundamentally soured on Xi
Jinping’s China (which we might
take as Xi’s greatest failure), even
while remaining economically tied
to Beijing.
But beyond simple political
unpalatability, there is a more
fundamental factor that many of
the pundits miss, namely the
moral dimension. For hundreds of
years, whether they were
missionaries, businesspeople,
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diplomats, or simply travelers,
Americans have been drawn to
China out of fascination and
bearing high hopes. Even
occasional anti-Communist
sentiment has never been able to
dampen American hopes. It still
hasn’t.
Trump’s praise of dictatorial
regimes and myriad improprieties
hurt America’s moral footing and
left the democratic world
rudderless in a time of growing
distress. Pompeo’s best efforts
could not alter this fact and his
statement that “We restored
America’s credibility” seems
fundamentally out of touch in
light of the Capitol riot. We should
be hopeful that this undemocratic
trend reached its high-water
mark during the insurrection. The
Biden administration’s focus on
shoring up democratic
institutions at home and
internationally will be a healthy
corrective. As he does so, he
should be sure to keep up the
pressure on Beijing unless and
until it ceases its malign activities
and alters its hostile stance.
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Latest Phase of When the talks resumed, however,

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the
2024) has been construed by the
Taliban as him clinging to power.
Intra-Afghan Taliban leader who negotiated a As reported by Voice of America,

Peace Talks Off

U.S.-Taliban deal struck in the Taliban “said Ghani’s
February 2020, and the chief insistence on clinging to power
to Slow Start Taliban negotiator Mullah Hakim
were in Pakistan. The Associated
could obstruct the way to a
‘negotiated and peaceful solution’
Published in The Diplomat Press reported that they were in to the long Afghan war.”
Pakistan until last Wednesday,
January 6. Meanwhile, insecurity persists in
On January 5, talks between the
Afghanistan. A roadside bomb in
Afghan government and the
U.S. defense officials were also in the capital, Kabul, killed three,
Taliban resumed in Doha, Qatar.
Pakistan last week, with acting including a spokesmen for the
The talks have so far met
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Interior Ministry’s public
expectations and are moving
Indo-Pacific Security Affairs David protection forces. The Islamic
slowly, beset by widely different
Helvey meeting with his Pakistani State’s Afghan contingent has
priorities and continued violence
military counterparts. A readout been increasingly active in recent
in Afghanistan.
of his meeting with Chief of the months, claiming a series of
General Staff Lieutenant General attacks in Kabul including on
Per reporting by TOLO News’
Sahir Shamshad Mirza conveyed educational institutions that killed
Sharif Amiry, the Afghan
thanks for “Pakistan’s ongoing role 50 people, most of them students,
government negotiating team
in supporting Afghanistan Peace and rocket attacks in December
insists that a ceasefire must be a
Negotiations” and noted targeting the major U.S. base in
priority in the talks, while the
discussions on “the urgency of Afghanistan.
Taliban want discussion of a
reducing violence and restarting
ceasefire to come after an
meaningful negotiations between The transition of power in
agreement on the shape of a
the Islamic Republic negotiators Washington also hangs
future government.
and the Taliban.” prominently in the background of
the intra-Afghan talks. The deal
This echoes reporting by the
In a comment that will shock settled between the U.S.
BBC’s Lyse Doucet back in
exactly no one, an anonymous government and the Taliban in
September, shortly after the
Taliban official told the Associated February 2020 envisioned a total
intra-Afghan talks began. Doucet
Press that the Taliban doesn’t withdrawal of U.S. forces by May
reported at the time that, “For the
trust the Afghan government. It’s 2021. Outgoing and embattled U.S.
Taliban, [a ceasefire] can only
safe to assume the distrust goes President Donald Trump late last
come once progress is made on
both ways. year ordered U.S. forces drawn
the shape of a new order. There
down to 2,500 by January 15.
will be another semantic search
Last week, Afghan President Trump leaves office on January 20.
for a ‘pause’ [in violence], a
Ashraf Ghani rejected the idea of Incoming President-elect Joe
‘reduction’, and the like.”
an interim government. “This seat Biden has advocated for keeping a
is not mine, this seat [the small intelligence-based presence
After nearly three months of
presidency] belongs to the nation in Afghanistan. Taliban leaders
negotiations, the two sides had a
of Afghanistan, this system has have flatly rejected the possibility
“breakthrough” and agreed on the
dignity, you all voted for me,” of any foreign troops remaining in
rules and procedures for the talks
Ghani said in remarks in the country.
in early December. Shortly
Nangarhar on January 7. “My duty
thereafter, the two sides
is to transfer the power to the
announced a three-week break
successor of the government in a
before negotiations would
legal way.” Ghani’s apparent
resume, on January 5, on an
resolve to serve the entirety of his
agenda for the ongoing talks.
elected term (running through

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Will Biden elections on the promise of

cleaning up a Republican mess.
reverse a plethora of Trump’s
executive orders on his first day in
make America From Franklin D Roosevelt’s (FDR) office, including lifting the

great again? 1933 victory amid the Great

Depression and John F Kennedy’s
“Muslim Ban” and rejoining the
Paris climate accord.
1961 ascendance following the late
Published in Al Jazeera 1950s economic recession, to He will also try to move rapidly to
Barack Obama’s historic triumph fix Trump’s shameful and deadly
following the Iraq war and the pandemic record by issuing new
Biden needs a grand
2008 financial meltdown, directives to combat the
strategy to clean up
Democratic presidents have coronavirus.
Trump’s mess and restore
repeatedly faced the challenge of
America’s leadership in the
restoring US prosperity and These are important steps that
world.
leadership. And somewhat signal his seriousness to turn the
succeeded. page on the Trump era, but not
The way forward for the new
enough to reckon with his legacy
Biden administration cannot be
Such selective reading of the past and tackle America’s social and
the way back. Harking back to the
century may be all too racial injustices that elevated him
Obama era and stacking his
self-righteous, but never have to the presidency.
administration with “Obamians”
Democrats and liberals, including
will not suffice to restore
liberal Republicans, shown as That is why Biden needs to go
America’s credibility and
much enthusiasm for turning the beyond what Obama did after the
leadership. As president of the
page on a Republican presidency calamitous years of the Bush
United States, Joe Biden has to
as they do today. presidency. He must design a new
look further, aim higher, and act
American covenant along the lines
bigger.
Biden’s cabinet picks show a great of FDR’s New Deal and Lyndon
deal of cultural and gender Johnson’s Great Society.
It is important for Biden to
diversity, albeit from within the
reverse much of Donald Trump’s
establishment. If policy is indeed He could start by embracing and
policies, but that will not erase his
shaped by official appointments, implementing a wide-ranging
legacy or undo the damage to
the new administration shows national revival programme that
America’s soul. Certainly not when
some promise. follows FDR’s three Rs: relief for
the bitter and vengeful former
the many unemployed through
president and his allies continue
Of course, many Democrats would direct government support;
to lurk around in the shadows.
have liked to see the likes of recovery through greater
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie infrastructural investments and
Trump’s authoritarian attempts to
Sanders in the new market subsidies; and reform of
restore white supremacy have
administration, but my guess is, the economy through regulations
thankfully failed miserably, mainly
Biden hopes to work with and welfare programmes.
because America has moved on.
traditional and liberal Republicans
But he did succeed in causing so
in order to end the Trumpist Addressing poverty and inequality
much damage to the fabric of
mindset that divided the country. is indispensable for tackling the
American society and democracy
deeper more contentious issues of
that it will take years to clean up.
This would prove controversial racial and societal tensions that
and even alienate many are dividing and paralysing
That is why Biden will have to
progressive Democrats, but it America.
tread carefully, addressing the
could potentially widen the rift
social and economic grievances of
within the Republican Party and Needless to say, a struggling,
the Republican base without
improve the Democrats’ position divided and unstable America is
alienating his own Democratic
come midterm elections. an America that is unfit to lead the
base.
world. Its attraction, as the cliché
Biden already committed to goes, comes not only from the
Democrats have long run and won
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CSS Magazine Edition 7
example of its power, but the
power of its example, as a stable,
democratic and prosperous
superpower.
So once Biden restores what he
calls the “soul of American” – its
democratic civility, economic
vitality and political liberality – he
will be able to proceed with
restoring its credibility.
Reinstating American leadership
will require rebuilding alliances,
strengthening global institutions
and upholding international
agreements, which Trump
abandoned.
Unfortunately, many among
America’s allies, like its European
and South Asian partners, have
already moved on. They have
begun to shape their own
autonomous security structures
and some have even signed new
trade deals with China.
Although they are pleased with
the changes in Washington and
with America reengaging with the
world in a responsible diplomatic
fashion, America’s closest allies
will not rush to embrace US
leadership as in the past and will
not be swayed by mere sweet talk
or hollow assurances.
Biden will have to work harder
than his predecessors to regain
their trust. He will also need to
accept more equitable
transatlantic and transpacific
relationships based on mutual
respect and mutual interest.
These alliances are indispensable
for America to deal with, not to
say stand up to, a rising China and
emboldened Russia, its two
greatest challenges in the decades
to come.
When it comes to great power
politics, Biden will have to restore
that which distinguished America
from its rivals, albeit at times
selectively and cynically, i.e. its
emphasis on and promotion of
human rights and democratic
values.
And nowhere is this as urgent as it
is in the Middle East, where the
Trump administration has
abandoned all that is politically
legal, decent and humane.
Biden must put human rights at
the centre of America’s regional
policy. This begins by pressuring
America’s clients, Saudi Arabia and
Israel, to end the war in Yemen
and the occupation of Palestine,
respectively.
Returning to the Iran nuclear deal
is commendable and necessary,
but it must go hand-in-hand with
ensuring Iranian respect for
human rights and legal norms. As
the region’s self-appointed
guardian superpower, America
shares responsibility for the civil
wars in Syria and Libya, which
Obama enabled and Trump left to
fester.
Biden says America is shaped by a
constant battle between its better
angels and darkest impulses. This
is also true for foreign policy.
It is high time for its better angels
to prevail in America and beyond.
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A post-Trump
Palestine
Published in The Al Jazeera
Palestinians should stop
hoping for change of policy
in Washington and move
forward with their struggle
for freedom.
For decades, Palestinians have
suffered under Israeli colonial
occupation backed and
empowered by US political,
financial, and military support.
This has allowed Israel to
gradually expand its settlement
and colonisation of Palestine, to
the point that now only about 5
percent of historical Palestine’s
land is actually controlled by
Palestinians.
This process continued almost
undisturbed by international
scrutiny for years, under the
cover of Washington’s “peace
process” and its self-declared
position as mediator between the
Palestinian and Israeli sides.
When Donald Trump became US
president in 2017, however, he
disrupted this carefully crafted
process of gradual colonialisation.
He embraced the most racist and
extremist Israeli agenda and
eliminated the established
practice of paying lip service to
Palestinian rights.
Israel’s right-wing government
was given the green light to do as
it pleased, while the American
president kept validating its
illegal, criminal acts. This
effectively accelerated the
process of establishing “facts on
the ground” – i.e. the usurpation
of Palestinian land and subversion
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CSS Magazine Edition 7
of any Palestinian political
leverage to the point that
Palestinian demands become
impossible to fulfil and their rights
irrelevant.
So what does Trump’s legacy
mean for the Palestinians?
Four years of Trump
Although the US Congress passed
a bill recognising Jerusalem as the
capital of Israel in 1995, successive
US administrations postponed
acting on it due to the absence of
an agreement between the
Palestinian Authority and Israel on
the status of the holy city.
On December 6, 2017, Trump
turned what was already on paper
into reality by issuing an executive
order to move the US embassy to
Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The move happened on May 14 the
following year, which coincided
with the 70th anniversary of the
Nakba and which the Israelis
marked by massacring dozens of
Palestinians in Gaza.
A few months later, Trump
announced that he was defunding
the United Nations Relief and
Works Agency for Palestine
Refugees (UNRWA). This was not
only a catastrophe for millions of
Palestinians who depend on the
UN agency for food, education
and health care, but it was an
attempt to erase the status of the
Palestinians as refugees and, by
doing so, their right of return. By
trying to destroy UNRWA, Trump
was doing the bidding of the
Israeli government which has
done everything it can for
decades to prevent ethnically
cleansed Palestinians from
returning and reclaiming their
land.
The right of return was also
further undermined by the “deal
of the century” Trump and his
son-in-law Jared Kushner put
forward. Copying the language of
previous US “peace initiatives”, the
proposal promised “peace” and
“prosperity” for the Palestinians
but denied most of their demands,
including self-determination in
the form of a sovereign
Palestinian state. Meanwhile, US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
announced on November 18, 2019,
that the US government considers
the construction of Israeli
settlements in the West Bank not
to be a violation of international
law.
In his final months as president,
Trump did not fail to give yet
another lavish gift to Israel:
normalisation with Arab states.
This was yet another major blow
for the Palestinian cause.
In the aftermath of the second
Intifada, the Arab League – upon
the initiative of the late Saudi King
Abdullah – committed to
normalise relations with Israel
only in exchange for the
establishment of a Palestinian
state on 1967 borders, the return
of refugees, and the withdrawal of
Israel from the Golan Heights.
In August, the United Arab
Emirates and Bahrain signed
normalisation deals with Israel,
under the patronage of the Trump
administration, without
demanding any concessions on
the Palestinian issue in return;
Morocco and Sudan followed suit
shortly after. This was a clear
break with the Arab consensus of
“land for peace”.
Thus, by the end of the Trump’s
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presidency, Palestinians seem
stripped of whatever they could
be stripped of.
A post-Trump Palestine
Joe Biden’s victory in the US
presidential elections in
November seems to have brought
some optimism in certain
Palestinian quarters that the US
will change its policy towards the
Palestinians. Let us not forget that
Trump’s policies were never really
in contradiction to Washington’s
traditional stance on Palestine,
showing full and unconditional
support for the Israeli state.
To expect Biden to change
anything or compensate for the
damage his predecessor has done
is foolish. In fact, he and his team
have made it abundantly clearly
that they will not reverse Trump’s
decisions, including the moving of
the US embassy from Tel Aviv to
Jerusalem. His administration will
not support the Palestinians’
struggle for justice; it will not seek
their liberation, the end of the
Israeli occupation, the dismantling
of the Israeli apartheid regime, or
the return of Palestinian refugees
to their homeland.
The lesson the Palestinians should
learn from the four long years of
Trump’s presidency is not to bet
on any US administration ever
embracing their interests and
rights or becoming an objective
arbiter. The US political elite is an
enabler of Israeli occupation and
colonisation of Palestine, it has
always been and will remain such
in the future. And, just like Trump,
it will continue to give Israel
everything it wants, whether it is
legitimacy for its illegal theft of
land or an unlimited supply of
advanced weapons to use against
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the Palestinians.
Fully supported by the US, Israel
continues its pursuit to establish
“facts on the ground” – to
establish absolute domination
over all of historical Palestine and
to make Palestinian statehood
impossible. But there is one fact
that Israel is completely failing to
establish, despite all its military
might, financial resources and
limitless backing by a superpower:
It cannot erase the Palestinians.
Six million Palestinians – deprived
of their liberty and homeland –
continue to live in historical
Palestine. Millions of other
Palestinians live in neighbouring
Arab countries and the diaspora.
Their identity, their very
existence, erodes day by day the
deception Israel has used to
whitewash its apartheid and
present itself to the world as a
“model democracy”. More
importantly, the Palestinian lives
and spirit actively undermine the
Israeli occupation and apartheid.
Palestinians are suffering
shocking deprivation and torment
by the Israelis, but they are
steadfast. Their very existence has
become resistance. And time is
not on their tormentor’s side. At
this moment in time, Israel may
appear as a victorious coloniser,
having lifted almost all barriers to
annexing the West Bank. But the
Palestinian struggle is making
headway. In the not-so-distant
future, justice will prevail and
Palestinians will have their
freedom.
Iraq’s there is a nascent but significant
movement among young Iraqis to
Disappearance reject identity politics based on
From Biden’s
sectarianism, which has a bloody
history of being exploited to
Agenda Is a Big divide Iraqi Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds,
Mistake
and other groups from one
another. The worst thing that
could happen is if the new U.S.
Published in The Foreign Policy administration reverted back to
old proposals to deepen Iraq’s
On Thursday morning, Baghdad
sectarian divisions as a way of
witnessed twin suicide bombings
ruling the country, as Biden has
in a busy market that killed 32
proposed in the past. Instead,
people and wounded more than
Washington should support Iraqi
100 others. It was the bloodiest
sovereignty, stability, and good
such attack in many years.
governance.
Coming only a day after the
inauguration of U.S. President Joe
Like Biden, many in the new
Biden, the attack is a reminder
administration will have an Iraq
that the dangers facing Iraq from
legacy—even if they do not want
extremism remain very real, and
to own it. The new president, for
that the country’s situation is still
one, visited Iraq many times as a
precarious in many ways.
U.S. senator and vice president.
The attack also serves as a
As the chair of the Senate Foreign
reminder that Iraq needs to be on
Relations Committee, Biden
the Biden administration’s agenda,
played a significant role in giving
even though it does not appear to
then-President George W. Bush
be a priority at all. Because of its
authorization for the Iraq War in
strategic impact on Middle East
2002. In a 2006 op-ed in the New
politics and the implications Iraq’s
York Times, Biden proposed a
success or failure has on the
dismemberment of Iraq along
United States’ standing in the
sectarian and ethnic lines. And
world, how Biden and his team
while sources close to Biden say
handle Iraq will be watched
he has long abandoned that
closely in the Middle East and
position, he has yet to revoke it
beyond.
directly. As vice president, Biden
was assigned by then-President
Iraq is at a critical moment as it
Barack Obama to oversee the Iraq
prepares for national elections in
file and was widely considered a
October that could help the
kingmaker when he threw his
country to finally emerge from the
weight behind Nouri al-Maliki
grip of corrupt, sectarian political
getting another term as Iraqi
parties—or reverse the gains it has
prime minister in 2010. At the
made.
same time, however, the Obama
administration did its best to
The Biden team is taking office 10
ignore Iran’s destructive meddling
years after the Arab uprisings that
in Iraq.
the United States largely
mishandled. In today’s Iraq, as
Biden’s team brings experience
elsewhere in the Middle East,
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and personal relationships in Iraq
to the table, but Iraq has changed
dramatically since they were last
in office.
Biden isn’t alone in having a
significant history with Iraq that
has remained largely unspoken
during the campaign and
transition. His nominees for
secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin,
and secretary of state, Antony
Blinken, are both well acquainted
with Iraq. Austin served as a
commander in the 2003 Iraq War
and later headed U.S. Central
Command, where he oversaw the
drawdown of U.S. troops and their
consequent return to fight the
Islamic State. By naming Barbara
Leaf as senior director for the
Middle East and North Africa in
the National Security Council and
Brett McGurk as coordinator for
the Middle East and North Africa,
Biden brings two seasoned
diplomats who have worked in
Iraq to the top of decision-making
in national security.
These officials bring experience
and personal relationships in Iraq
to the table, but Iraq has changed
dramatically since they were last
in office. The current Iraqi prime
minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, is
the first non-Islamist prime
minister since 2005. He has
advocated civilian, nonsectarian
rule in Iraq. President Barham
Salih is also an advocate of
nonsectarian and progressive
politics. The opportunity to work
with both of them should not be
squandered.
There is a narrow but important
opportunity to turn Iraq
around—but it won’t be easy. With
elections in October, the window
to act with Kadhimi and Salih
leading Iraq is limited to less than
nine months. As the elections are
held and the next government is
formed, corrupt militia leaders
and Iranian proxies in Iraq will do
everything in their power to push
secular, progressive parties and
politicians from power.
To avoid that happening,
the U.S. administration
should have three priorities
in Iraq.
First, Washington should not
allow extremist elements,
whatever their creed, to attack
U.S. interests in the country.
These interests include not just
the safety of the U.S. Embassy and
U.S. troop bases but the stability
of Iraq more broadly, including its
government, infrastructure, oil
installations, and borders with
U.S. allies, in particular Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait. The
United States should also support
the current government by aiding
its ability to provide security and
basic services to the Iraqi people,
helping secular and progressive
rule to gain greater legitimacy.
Second, there is a battle of ideas
and ideals raging in the Middle
East—and the United States is
part of that battle. Be it in Iraq or
Lebanon, young people are
pushing against sectarianism and
the corruption and nepotism that
come with it. Thirty years have
passed since the 1991 uprising,
when Iraqis demanded change in
their country. Iraqis rose up in 14
out of the country’s 18 provinces
in a revolution that few outside
Iraq remember—because it was
not televised and predated the
ability of social media to capture
cries for help. When the uprising
was quashed following Operation
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Desert Storm, in which a U.S.-led
coalition ejected Saddam
Hussein’s forces from Kuwait, the
United States stood by and
allowed thousands to be killed.
For over a year now, young Iraqis
have once again been taking to
the streets to demand a better
future. The United States should
not stand by the wayside again. It
should engage in the Iraqi and
Middle Eastern battle for
progressive ideals and support the
secular nation-state over militia
and sectarian rule.
Third, Washington must counter
Iran’s expansionist agenda in the
region by helping Iraq regain its
sovereignty and limiting foreign
intervention in the country.
Ensuring Iraq is firmly on a path
to becoming a more neutral and
influential actor in the region
would benefit U.S. interests and
bring more stability to the region.
Oddly, Iraq is barely even
mentioned in Washington even as
there is near-consensus that Iran
will be among the top
foreign-policy issues the Biden
administration will tackle early on.
But to address Iran and its nuclear
program in isolation is
short-sighted. Iran’s expansionist
policies in the region, and
particularly in Iraq, are part of the
problem and have to be addressed
and curtailed.
In his Senate confirmation
hearing, Blinken said that the Gulf
Arab countries and Israel would
be involved in potential talks with
Iran about its role in the region.
There was no mention of Iraq,
even though it is at the heart of
Iran’s expansionist ambitions in
the region.
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There is a common misconception
that Iran has what is often
described as a “natural role” in
Iraq, whether because of cultural
links or Tehran’s imperial
ambitions. Yet there is no reason
for Iran to have a political or
security role in other sovereign
states. Undoubtedly, cultural links
are important. But having
Iraq-based militias report to Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps and Iranian military
commanders freely cross borders
goes far beyond cultural
influence. Iraq must not be seen
only in terms of Iran’s agenda.
The United States has a number of
powerful tools of influence it can
use in Iraq. A physical
presence—whether U.S. troops or
embassy staff—is required to show
commitment and help stabilize
Iraq. Apart from the most ardent
of Iran’s allies in Baghdad, who
wish to push the United States
out of Iraq, political leaders prefer
a U.S. presence that creates a
counterweight to Iran. Even the
radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr,
whose followers rail against the
United States, would rather keep
Washington engaged in order to
avoid a complete Iranian takeover.
Another tool is sanctions, which
the Trump administration used
frequently. Sanctions are a clear
indicator of whom Washington
will work with and with whom
they won’t. Being designated by
the United States as a militia
leader can end the political
aspirations of anyone wanting to
enter government and wield
power.
Politicians in Iraq recognize that
the Biden administration has little
time or resources to squander in
their country. That worries those
who hope to see the United States
play a role there and to have close
ties. For those aligned with Iran,
who see the United States as a
challenger to their plans, this is a
welcome development. They
shouldn’t get what they are
hoping for.
For Modi,
Courting the
Arab World
Begins With
India’s
Muslims
Published in The Foreign Policy
India’s tricky regional
balance of power isn’t made
any easier by sectarian
tensions.
On Dec. 22, Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi spoke at the
centenary of Aligarh Muslim
University, a centrally
administered university a few
hours’ drive southeast of the
capital, Delhi. Like so many
important events these days, the
celebrations were held online, but
Modi’s speech was closely
watched. India’s ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) has long had
fraught relations with the
country’s 200 million Muslims,
with the party being accused of
perpetuating an anti-Muslim
climate of hate with its open
embrace of sectarian politics.
Modi himself has struggled to
convince Muslims that he governs
for all Indians, regardless of creed.
In the speech, Modi emphasized
that his government was
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committed to religious
non-discrimination. He also
highlighted selected statistics
showing improvements in
education attainment for Muslim
girls. But he also called on Muslim
students to help build India’s
international “soft power” by
carrying the “best of India”
abroad. Modi’s plea was likely tied
to his recent diplomatic offensive
to repair ties with the Muslim
world—or at least ensure they
aren’t damaged by perceptions
that his government is not only
Hindu nationalist, but
anti-Islamic.
Keeping Muslim-majority
countries onside is crucial for
India’s foreign policy. Incredibly,
Delhi seeks to do so while
simultaneously deepening defense
ties with Israel. What’s more, India
has succeeded in developing close
relations with Gulf Arab states
such as Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates while
cooperating on infrastructure
development with their archrival,
Iran. That’s quite a juggling
act—and one that seems to fly in
the face of received wisdom on
international relations.
Western analysts argue over
whether today’s world is unipolar,
bipolar, or multipolar, but they
always see the United States as
one of the poles, and model other
countries in relation to it. That
may work well enough at a global
level. But at the regional level,
international systems can be
much more complicated. The
tangle of relations connecting
South Asia and the Middle East is
one such regional system—and it
may be better understood using
indigenous Indian international
relations theories than Western
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global ones.
In 1919, the pioneering Bengali
social scientist Benoy Kumar
Sarkar published a fascinating
article in the American Political
Science Review on the “Hindu
Theory of International Relations.”
Drawing on the Mahabharata and
other classical Sanskrit texts, he
divided foreign countries into
three types: the ari (enemy), the
madhyama (mediatory, entangled
with both the country and the
enemy), and the udaseena
(indifferent, free to throw their
weight behind either). Taken
together, the entire system is a
mandala, or circle, of states.
Applying Sarkar’s mandala theory
to India’s western border, Pakistan
is the perennial ari, Iran is the
crucial madhyama, and the Gulf
Arab states are the udaseena that
hold the ultimate balance of
power.
India has been able to maintain a
working relationship with Iran
despite U.S. sanctions, even
obtaining a sanctions exemption
from the Trump administration
for helping Iran develop port and
railway infrastructure in
Chabahar. Iran is not a close
Indian ally, but mandala theory
suggests that it doesn’t have to be.
In the mandala system, it is
enough for the madhyama, Iran,
to put constant pressure on the
ari, Pakistan. With Pakistan
accused of supporting separatist
terrorism in Iran’s southwestern
Baluchistan province, the
pressure from Tehran is certainly
on.
Its madhyama in place, India need
only line up its broader udaseena,
the regional powers that could
support either side. For this, India
has turned to the Gulf Arab troika
of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, and Bahrain, which are
themselves closely connected by
religious, historical, and security
ties. Until the early 2000s, these
countries mainly saw India as a
source of cheap labor for
domestic services and
construction sites. India’s rapid
economic growth since the turn
of the millennium, however, has
dramatically changed these
calculations.
Still, a relationship based on oil
exports and investment
opportunities isn’t enough to
complete India’s mandala. India
has long sought a deeper security
relationship with the Arab world,
only to see Pakistan counter
Indian realpolitik with Sunni
Muslim religious solidarity.
Pakistan successfully stymied
India’s efforts to join the
Organisation of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) in 1969, and
was closely involved in the
development of Saudi Arabia’s
armed forces. It even sent troops
to help defend Saudi Arabia
against Iran in 1979 and Iraq in
1991.
The greatest sign of deep
cooperation between Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim states of the
Persian Gulf may have been the
alleged Saudi support for
Pakistan’s nuclear program.
Academics are divided about the
importance and even the reality of
Saudi financing, but the idea that
Pakistan might develop a
supranational so-called Islamic
bomb, or Muslim bomb, to
counter Indian and Israeli nuclear
weapons percolated widely from
the late 1970s onward. Muslims
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worldwide cheered when Pakistan
finally detonated its first bomb in
1998.
It’s not clear exactly how India
succeeded in flipping Saudi Arabia
and the other Gulf Arab states
from staunch supporters of
Pakistan into India-leaning
udaseena. As late as 2016, serious
analysts could still argue that
“Pakistan will only continue to
grow as an important partner for
Saudi Arabia.” The tipping point
seems to have been the joint
Saudi-Emirati intervention in
Yemen, launched in 2015. Saudi
Arabia formally requested
Pakistani “aircraft, warships, and
soldiers” for the war, only to be
publicly rebuffed.
At that point, the Saudis and their
Gulf allies may have concluded
that their alliance with Pakistan
was more trouble than it was
worth. By the mid-2010s, the
military services of the Gulf Arab
states possessed much more
sophisticated equipment than
their Pakistani counterparts, and
they no longer needed Pakistan
for training or technical
assistance. India, by contrast,
offered not only economic
opportunities, but a strong
preference for status-quo
stability. Its increasing naval and
air presence in the Arabian Sea
may have been the stick to
complement the carrots.
Pakistan thought it held a trump
card in Indian Kashmir,
historically India’s only
Muslim-majority state. Yet when
India revoked Kashmir’s special
status in August 2019 and placed it
under central administration as a
union territory, Pakistan sought a
condemnation from other Muslim
countries and the OIC—to no
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avail. Despite the Modi
government’s heavy-handed use
of repressive tactics in Kashmir as
a prophylactic against potential
violence, official criticism from
Muslim-majority states has been
muted.
It seems the only thing India has
to worry about as it seeks closer
ties with its Arab udaseena is the
contentedness of its own
Muslim-minority citizens. Though
it ignored Pakistani pleas over the
status of Kashmir, in 2020 the OIC
lashed out at India on 11 separate
issues relating to the rights of
Indian Muslims. Five of these
criticisms were related to the
controversial Citizenship
Amendment Act (CAA), which
offers a pathway to citizenship to
non-Muslim refugees from
neighboring Muslim-majority
countries. The CAA sparked mass
protests all across India, including
a violent confrontation between
police and students at the Aligarh
Muslim University.
In his centenary speech at the
university, Modi appealed to
Aligarh’s Muslim students to
accept that “whatever religion you
are born in, it is important to
blend one’s aspirations with
national goals.” He asked them to
put aside politics “for the
betterment of the country.” It is
probably no coincidence that
Modi’s speech came one day after
his home minister and right-hand
man, Amit Shah, announced a
moratorium on enforcement of
the CAA until after the
coronavirus pandemic had passed.
Modi, Shah, and the BJP certainly
don’t expect to win Muslim votes
by appealing to youthful
patriotism and soft-pedaling the
CAA. But they do hope to
moderate the outright hostility
that many Indian Muslims feel
toward the BJP. Anything Modi
can do to win Indian Muslims’
trust, control the more
aggressively sectarian elements of
his party, and tamp down Muslim
protests against the government
will make it easier for the Gulf
Arab states to publicly cooperate
with Modi’s India. That
cooperation has progressed from
wary flirtation to official
exchanges and joint exercises.
India’s state-to-state relationships
with its Gulf Arab neighbors are
flourishing. But their final success
will depend on Modi’s handling of
government-to-citizen
relationships at home.
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What Erdogan
Really Wants in
the Eastern
Mediterranean
Published in The Foreign Policy
In an episode that has tediously
repeated itself several times since
July, Turkey’s seismic-survey ships
and navy vessels clash with Greek
authorities while probing for
hydrocarbons in waters off the
small Greek island of Kastellorizo.
Turkey and Greece—perennial
foes—don’t see eye to eye on the
Mediterranean’s maritime bound-
aries. Yet, each time they bicker,
pundits are quick to reduce the
Greek-Turkish standoff to a
bilateral kerfuffle over natural
resources. In reality, the dispute
over Kastellorizo—and Turkey’s
incursions in the Eastern Medi-
terranean more generally—are
merely proximate symptoms of a
deep-rooted conflict over sover-
eignty. That fight has been brew-
ing for decades, and it was
recently exacerbated by the
abandonment of long-held Turk-
ish foreign-policy principles based
on caution and an aversion to
adventurism.
Nothing that happens in the
Eastern Mediterranean is separa-
ble from the wider dynamics in a
region where Europe, Asia, and
Africa meet. The region has
always been ground zero for
great-power politics, but it has
developed a new vulnerability in
the aftermath of Washington’s
ill-fated Iraq War, which prompt-
ed a reconfiguration of U.S.
foreign-policy priorities around
the world. Today, the United
58
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States is increasingly unwilling to
intervene decisively abroad—mak-
ing space for other actors to
scramble in pursuit of their
individual agendas, trying to carve
out their own spheres of influ-
ence.
Nowhere is this more evident than
in Turkey’s environs, where
Ankara has sought to capitalize on
these changes to pursue what
amounts to a revisionist geopoliti-
cal agenda. Domestically, this
about-face has been buttressed by
a move toward Islamic populism,
nationalism, and authoritarian-
ism—away from what some
Washington policy wonks used to
call the “Turkish model”: a
perceived synthesis of economic
liberalization, pro-Western
democracy, and Islamic values
that many believed could be a
model for the Arab world. Now,
rather than going for a clean and
quick divorce, Ankara is leveraging
its various institutional, economic,
and security ties with the West to
climb the power ladder of the
regional system while embracing
illiberalism at home.
Since 2015, Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has exuded
historical revanchism in justifying
Turkish interference in Eastern
Europe, the Middle East, and
Central Asia—his discourse
peppered with flowery mentions
of “geography in our heart” and
“our spiritual borders.” But a
nostalgic policy of neo-Ottoman-
ism doesn’t begin to explain
Ankara’s geopolitical reasoning
under Erdogan and his Justice and
Development Party (AKP).
Turkey today seeks to become a
great power able to negotiate on
equal terms with the rest of the
great powers and, wherever
possible, impose its will by resort-
ing to faits accomplis. In order to
maximize its stature, then, Turkey
has invested in its national securi-
ty apparatus and military-projec-
tion capabilities while also ramp-
ing up its global soft power in
everything including entertain-
ment, religion, and commerce.
All in all, Erdogan’s agenda
encompasses much more than
mere defense and survival. His
ultimate goal is to alter the
geopolitical status quo in ways he
believes benefit Turkey. In this
sense, Turkey is now a revisionist
state: It embarks upon military
interventions and seeks to control
foreign territory, as in Syria and
Iraq; challenges land borders and
maritime boundaries, as with
Cyprus and Greece; engages in
demographic engineering and
political interference, as in Syria
and Northern Cyprus; maintains
bases overseas, as in Somalia and
Qatar; and galvanizes dependent
proxies, as in Libya, northern
Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Chief among Milli Gorus’s tenets
is that Turkey was—and continues
to be—ripped off by the West.
All this may be needlessly provoc-
ative and eventually prove coun-
terproductive in bolstering
Turkey’s stature vis-à-vis erst-
while allies. But it’s a vindictive
path informed by Ankara’s current
foreign policy, which is instilled
with Turkey’s own brand of
political Islam: Necmettin
Erbakan’s Milli Gorus (National
Outlook) movement of the 1970s.
Chief among Milli Gorus’s tenets
is that Turkey was—and continues
to be—ripped off by the West.
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Erdogan’s worldview hasn’t always
mirrored that of Erbakan, his
former mentor. In fact, Turkey’s
now-president split with Erbakan
and his old guard at the turn of
the century after a Kemalist coup
ousted Erbakan’s Islamist Welfare
Party, of which Erdogan had been
a member while serving as mayor
of Istanbul in the 1990s. One of
their main differences was orien-
tation toward the West. In 2001,
when Erdogan founded the AKP,
his new party was a staunch
proponent of eventual European
Union accession, while Erbakan
favored integration with the
Islamic world.
But things changed as Erdogan
and the AKP began to consolidate
their grip on the state. The party
also faced frustrations in its
ongoing deliberations with the
EU, particularly as the bloc
accepted the Republic of Cyprus
as a member in 2004 while
Germany and France poured cold
water on Turkey’s own candidacy.
In 2015, Erdogan formed an
alliance with Turkey’s Nationalist
Movement Party (MHP), which
harbors hard-line views on issues
like Turkey’s ongoing war against
Kurdish militants and the status of
Cyprus. The MHP’s anti-Western-
ism hastened the AKP’s own shift
toward a more nationalist stance;
once the two parties formed a
coalition, there was no going back.
Today, Ankara views the 1923
Treaty of Lausanne—which
founded the Turkish Republic and
drew its modern borders—as
anathema, an outrageous conces-
sion to which Turkey should have
never agreed. AKP elites lament
the treaty’s required concession of
territories in northern Syria and
northern Iraq, which Turkish
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nationalists had claimed in their
1920 National Pact.
This is a departure from Turkey’s
revered founder, Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk, who depicted Lausanne
as a historic victory. But for
Erdogan and his followers,
anything that yielded the abolition
of the Caliphate and Sultanate
amounts to a betrayal—especially
when followed by a radical secu-
larization project. For this reason,
Erdogan sees a revision of the
Treaty of Lausanne as integral to
his political ambitions.
The revisionist undercurrents of
Erdogan’s worldview indicate that
the Eastern Mediterranean crisis
is not primarily about natural gas
but decades-old sovereignty
issues—infused with old and new
geopolitical ambitions alike.
Material gain has motivated
Turkey’s expansionism, but it is
also animated by identity and
ideology. That’s because Turkey’s
current approach to underwater
exploration in the Eastern Medi-
terranean actually offers a low
probability of commercial discov-
ery; no hydrocarbons have been
found off of Libya and Greece thus
far, and Turkey’s attempts off of
Cyprus have proved unsuccessful.
Turkey also views the sea as a
stepping stone for acquiring more
influence in the Maghreb, the
Sahel, and West Africa.
A Kemalist government would
have never contemplated such
risk-laden adventures. On the
contrary, Kemalist foreign policy
(which has its roots in resisting
foreign invasions of Anatolia as
the Ottoman Empire fell) was, for
the most part, haunted by the fear
of losing—not gaining—sovereign
territory. Yet for Erdogan and his
followers, there’s always more to
be desired—and that’s how Turkey
ended up embroiled in a civil war
over 1,000 miles from home.
In 2019, Turkey intervened
militarily in Libya’s ongoing civil
war. It is not yet known whether
Ankara’s ongoing operation will
prove sustainable, or even useful,
to Turkish national interests. But
given Erdogan’s revisionist incli-
nations, the stakes are high.
In April 2019, eastern Libya-based
commander Khalifa Haftar
launched an unprovoked ground
offensive on Tripoli—the nation’s
capital and seat of the United
Nations-recognized Government
of National Accord (GNA)—that
the United Arab Emirates backed
up with an illegal airstrike cam-
paign. The operation was destruc-
tive but ineffective, and it gave
Turkey—which backs the GNA—a
golden opportunity to step into
Libya and transform what had
been for many years a mere
shadow presence into a more
tangible, formidable apparatus.
In addition to backing the GNA
militarily, Turkey also signed a
controversial memorandum with
the U.N.-recognized government
on the delimitation of continental
shelves and exclusive economic
zones in the Eastern Mediterra-
nean. The agreement wasn’t so
much an avenue for Turkey to
extract natural gas off of Libya’s
coast as an attempt to subvert
existing maritime boundaries by
creating an arbitrary yet
legal-sounding precedent that
disrupts the internationally
recognized claims of other states,
including Cyprus, Egypt, and
Greece. Simply put, the (as yet
unratified) pact aims to legitimize
Turkey’s expansionist aspira-
tions—and controversial claims
www.nearpeer.org
like Kastellorizo—in its immediate
neighborhood.
In 2020, Turkish-backed GNA
forces succeeded in expelling
Haftar’s brigades from Libya’s
northwestern quadrant—where
Ankara took advantage of the
ensuing lull to further entrench its
presence. Today, from naval
facilities to airfields to ground
troops to drones, Turkish assets in
the region are hard to miss. It’s
clear that Erdogan has no inten-
tion of leaving anytime soon.
But a robust military presence
cannot be maintained on the
cheap, if only because other
powers meddling in Libya remain
bitterly opposed to Turkey’s
continued presence there. While
Russia and Egypt—which have
backed Haftar’s forces but now
are keen on trying a more prag-
matic approach—could eventually
be swayed to accept, and coexist
with, Turkey in Libya, the UAE,
France, and Greece will continue
to thwart Turkey’s strategy. Last
year, Haftar and his Emirati
sponsors implemented an
eight-month-long blockade,
which wasted nearly $10 billion in
oil revenues so as to prevent
money from reaching Libya’s
Central Bank, in GNA territory. It’s
is a reminder that Haftar’s forces
control most of Libya’s hydrocar-
bon reserves and begs the ques-
tion of how Turkey can ensure the
economic viability of its presence
in Libya going forward.
If no money can be found in the
sea, money must be captured on
Libyan soil. A decade ago, before
NATO and Arab powers inter-
vened militarily against dictator
Muammar al-Qaddafi’s regime,
Turkey had about $20 billion in
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CSS Magazine Edition 7
outstanding contracts with the
North African country, primarily
in infrastructure, engineering, and
onshore energy. Now, with Libya
in acute need of reconstruction,
Turkish companies are intent on
clinching several billion dollars’
worth of business deals in
GNA-held territory—and cashing
in.
Unlike Syria, Libya is a wealthy
nation, and Turkey feels entitled
to money-rich contracts there—a
demand it is willing to act on.
Ankara also can’t afford to remain
on the sidelines for too long:
Turkey is undergoing an economic
crisis at home, and its banks,
saddled with debt, need relief
soon. But after a failed June 2020
offensive into Sirte, just to the
west of Libya’s Oil Crescent,
Turkey has made efforts to avoid
fighting, favoring a diplomatic
solution to the conflict instead.
Libya is a wealthy nation, and
Turkey feels entitled to mon-
ey-rich contracts there—a
demand it is willing to act on.
In August 2020, Ankara demon-
strated its interest in collecting
hard-currency payments from the
GNA by signing an agreement
with the Central Bank of Libya.
But that alone won’t deliver
Turkey its dues. Since 2014,
Libya’s financial sector has been
paralyzed by dysfunction and
infighting, and its last remaining
hope of rescue is a U.N. reform
proposal introduced last year.
Only if Libya’s rival factions agree
to the plan can Turkey cash in.
Though Erdogan has expressed
skepticism about the U.N.-led
peace process in Libya, in recent
months he and his proxy forces
have refrained from brazen
military provocation. In fact, in
November 2020, Ankara allowed
high-profile west Libyan politi-
cians to visit Egypt—which backs
Haftar. Clearly—though Erdogan
may be hesitant to say so—Turkey
doesn’t want the peace process to
collapse.
Still, mild gestures won’t be
enough to bring peace. And the
Central Bank’s overhaul could very
well end up working against
Turkey’s interests. Even more
worrisome for Ankara is the
distinct possibility that Haftar
may reinstate his blockade; there’s
no guarantee the U.S. and
Russian-led pressure campaign
that ended the previous one will
be there to save the day again.
Should the UAE and its allies
succeed again at marginalizing
Turkey economically, Ankara will
see it as reason enough to launch
new military advances.
In August 2020, German Foreign
Minister Heiko Maas observed “a
deceptive calm in Libya”; war
could reignite any day—and
regardless of who sparks the next
round of fighting, Turkey will
likely exploit that circumstance to
advance into the country’s oil-rich
regions, like the Oil Crescent or
Fezzan.
But that’s not because Ankara
itself is hungry for hydrocarbons.
For Turkey, oil and natural gas are
a means to an end: In Libya, oil
guarantees the GNA’s survival by
reducing its economic depen-
dence on enemies. Because it’s
only with strong partners that the
revisionist Turkish project can
really find footing.
www.nearpeer.org
Biden Can
Reinvent
American
Power for a
Post-Trump
World
Published in The Foreign Policy
The U.S. president-elect promises
a humble foreign policy. That can
start by coming to terms with
America’s diminished capacity to
lead the world after Trump.
It’s hard to reduce to a word or
phrase the trail of destruction U.S.
President Donald Trump leaves in
his wake as he exits the world
stage. And while it would be
tempting for allies to write him off
as an anomaly and for adversaries
to hold him up as a cautionary tale
of the American experiment,
Trump gifted the world two
particular things that, collectively,
make his imprint on it more
profound.
First, he turbocharged a global
ecosystem of disinformation and
fascist conspiracy theories that
are increasingly making large
swaths of the world’s population
immune to the rule of law. And
second, he yanked the world’s
policeman off the beat. Neither
will change when President-elect
Joe Biden takes the oath of office
on Wednesday.
Whatever comfort most nations
are taking from Biden’s
enthusiastic declaration that
“America is back” don’t fully grasp
the Trump-sized hole America has
to dig itself out of. To do so, the
United States will be absorbed by
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its own business, or, in the words
of one foreign diplomat, it will be
“playing with itself” for some time.
That doesn’t portend a
continuation of Trump’s “America
first” agenda. Biden has spoken
eloquently about his desire for the
United States to reassume the
mantle of international
leadership—and he has a chance,
by embracing a humbler foreign
policy, to bring U.S. leadership
back to the big transnational
challenges that Trump ignored or
made worse.
But perhaps the greatest
self-inflected casualty of
America’s global dominance was
its neglect of the dark forces
brewing at home. The negative
effects of globalization and
growing income inequality have
weakened the middle class,
created fertile ground for Trump’s
brand of tribalism to take root,
and brought long-simmering
issues of racial injustice to a
boiling point.
Any world leader facing the
problems Biden is inheriting—a
raging pandemic, a devastated
economy, and a violent insurgency
within its borders—would be
looking inward. Indeed many
countries are facing the same
headwinds. Trump-style
demagoguery is flourishing in
countries around the globe, where
globalization, income disparities,
and migration have alienated the
working class and fueled its
embrace of populism—just as in
the United States.
Whether it is the United
Kingdom’s Brexit, the election of
Hungary’s xenophobic
president-turned-authoritarian
Viktor Orban, or the rise of Trump
protege Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil,
right-wing leaders have exploited
their supporters’ rage to seize and
hold onto power. Poland, India,
Turkey, and the Philippines are all
being led by populist strongmen
riding waves of discontent.
The coronavirus has highlighted
and deepened these inequities
and is furthering global social
unrest. Easily radicalized online,
disaffected citizens are turning
extremist, and violent protests are
becoming commonplace, even in
established democracies like
Germany—where belief in QAnon
conspiracy theories rivals that of
the United States and fueled last
summer’s storming of the
country’s federal parliament
building over the county’s
COVID-19 restrictions.
Today, some of these groups are
taking inspiration from this
month’s events in Washington and
are already discussing further
plans online.
If I am a leader in Europe, I am not
ruminating about my
disillusionment with Jeffersonian
democracy. After watching the
most powerful nation suffer
essentially a coup attempt, I am
worried the same tsunami will
crash on my shores. If the United
States, with its centuries-old
institutions, proved so vulnerable,
how can countries with less
institutional ballast weather such
a powerful storm?
As America reengages with its
allies, the best course for
Washington would be to avoid
trying to paper over the cracks
Trump left behind, both at home
and abroad.
www.nearpeer.org
Biden has said he favors a humble
foreign policy that ends long,
costly, and unpopular
interventions abroad in favor of
one that benefits the middle class
at home. That must begin with a
greater awareness of America’s
domestic priorities and a
recognition there is no appetite
among the U.S. public for
adventurist diplomacy in which
the United States inserts itself
even in issues and places that are
far from its core interests.
It also calls for a clear-eyed
assessment of the post-Trump
world, America’s role in it, and its
diminished capacity to lead. That
will require humility and patience,
uncommon traits inside the
Beltway. The United States can’t
both “build back better” and sit “at
the head of the table once again”
at the same time, as Biden has
suggested.
For starters, Biden’s nominee for
secretary of state, Antony Blinken,
will need to replenish the
depleted ranks of a diplomatic
corps that was ground zero of
Trump’s four-year assault on
government institutions and civil
servants.
Four years of Trump’s rebuffing
key allies, retreating from
international alliances, and
reneging on institutional
agreements have forced U.S.
partners to fend for themselves.
Accustomed to going it alone
during the Trump years, European
countries have been pursuing a
policy of “strategic autonomy”
favored by French President
Emmanuel Macron and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel. Last
month, just weeks before Biden
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took office, the European Union
reached a trade deal with
China—ignoring clear signals by
Biden’s team that he wanted to
coordinate on China’s most
problematic trade practices.
Beijing also reached a trade deal
with 14 Asian countries that
included major U.S. allies
Australia, South Korea, and Japan,
as well as other nations
abandoned by Washington when
Trump pulled out of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Together, the bloc represents 2.2
billion people and 30 percent of
the world’s GDP.
Some of Biden’s early moves—re-
entering Paris Climate agreement
and rescinding the travel ban on
several Muslim countries, as well
NATO countries and combatting
Chinese propaganda efforts being
used to wield diplomatic and
economic influence around the
world will do more to restore the
United States as a leading
democracy than any return to an
outdated diplomatic playbook that
ignores the tectonic global shifts
taking place.
The best thing the United States
can do for the world, and for
itself, is to build antibodies
against the forces that allowed
Trump and leaders like him to
thrive. With a more humble,
pragmatic, and restrained foreign
policy, Biden can reinvent
American power and transform
it—and, perhaps, the country—for
the future.
having paid him a high salary.
The video and the reaction raise
several questions related to
post-colonial elitism, the
relationship between class and
language, and the short-lived
nature of outrage.
The owners quizzing their
manager about his
English-language skills after
saying they are bored rightly
enraged a lot of Pakistanis. It
signifies the bored capitalist elite
exploiting their power as
employers to entertain
themselves by humiliating their
dependent employee for not being
good enough at English — the
language the elite is fluent in —
after they have paid for his
training in it.

Post-colonial
as reengaging with Iran on
nuclear talks—will suggest a The language of the colonisers is
return to the kind of moderate
foreign policy U.S. allies know. But
elitism seen as a marker of success.

the political fractures so evident The supposed clarification from

throughout the United States
can’t give any nation confidence
that agreements reached with
Biden will withstand future
administrations.
One profound way Biden can
reassert U.S. leadership is by
mobilizing efforts to address
transnational challenges that are
fueling global instability:
economic stagnation, the
COVID-19 pandemic, the negative
effects of climate change, and
fracturing states that are driving
refugee flows.
He can also spearhead a global
campaign to curb the proliferation
of disinformation and influence
operations that are adding to the
unrest. Putting an end to Russian
hacking and election meddling in
Published in The Dawn the owners afterwards made
matters worse: calling it friendly
A RECENT video that went viral on
banter is a weak cover-up; the
social media of two owners of a
video showed a clear instance of
restaurant in Islamabad has drawn
bullying where the manager got
a lot of ire, with calls for
no chance to respond but only
boycotting the restaurant ranking
nervously do as the employers
at the top of trends in Pakistan for
asked him to after putting him on
more than a day.
the spot, on camera.
The video shows the restaurant
owners interviewing their
manager of nine years about the
English language courses they
sent him to attend, and then ask
him to speak to them in English
while pointing the camera
towards him, saying they are
doing this because they are bored.
He responds in English well
enough to be understood but in
an accent less affected, and they
laugh saying this is the result after
his language courses, with them

www.nearpeer.org 63
CSS Magazine Edition 7
This episode also highlighted the
relationship between class and
language. English, the language of
the colonisers that we adopted, is
seen as a marker of success and
prestige. Though it is a significant
skill to have in the global arena, it
is also often a prerequisite for
class mobility and a marker of
gatekeeping in elite circles, even
for those with wealth. This South
Asian phenomenon was
wonderfully captured in the Irrfan
Khan and Saba Qamar starrer
movie Hindi Medium.
The notion of English being
superior is reinforced through
private elite education in Pakistan.
Schools mandate students to
speak in no language other than
English, and my nephew tells me
his private school imposed a fine
every time a student spoke in a
language other than English up
until the fifth grade. It is such
trauma, reinforced through a
financial penalty, for speaking
one’s own language at school that
leads to the inferiority that so
many Pakistanis feel when
communicating in their own
language, and perceived
superiority of English. That is
bound to result in instances like
the one in the restaurant.
There are several studies, most
recently one by The Citizens
Foundation, that find that
children’s comprehension and
fluency are maximised when
children are taught in languages
they understand and are familiar
with while gradually learning
foreign languages. It is also
important to think of how several
of the regional languages other
than Urdu are also marginalised
and looked down upon.
Pakistan has a history of
alienating a majority of our
population due to language issues,
which led to the east wing
breaking away in 1971. Only in
Sindh is the regional language
Sindhi taught in schools and
hence preserved; in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Pashto was
introduced as the medium of
instruction during the ANP
government but reversed when
the PTI came to power. This has
again slowed down learning, while
privileged elite children who grow
up speaking English at home
continue to benefit due to their
birth.
The short-lived nature of outrage
is also important to address in this
case. The owners of this
restaurant have been condemned,
the issue has been trending on
social media at the top for days,
but what will this lead to?
Will boycotting a restaurant lead
to the elite ceasing to think they
are superior due to their English?
Will employees start being
respected by their capitalist
employers? Will language skills
cease to be a requirement for
better employment? Will people
have more empathy after this
episode?
Or will we carry on with business
as usual, mocking the English
pronunciation and grammar of the
‘Urdu medium’, making Western
accents a prerequisite for
employment, treating employees
like they are subservient, paying
domestic workers less than the
minimum wage, and acting like
letting them eat in our house is a
huge favour that compensates for
the lack of a living wage in times
of rising inflation and a global
www.nearpeer.org
pandemic?
There is also something that has
to be said about social media in
this case: nothing that is posted is
safe from scrutiny; you will be
targeted endlessly once there is
evidence of misdemeanour; the
outrage will be more violent if the
offenders are women; and one
must apologise as loudly as one
offends to mend the damage.
Saarc
Consensus
Published in The Dawn
WE face a big political puzzle.
Sections of the establishment and
their allies push unproven, even
failed governance ‘panaceas’ but
oppose proven governance ideas.
They don’t do so from ignorance
but simply as the former serve
their interests while the latter
undermine them though they
serve the public interest.
The former include the
presidential system, more
provinces and proportional
representation. These ideas are
not inherently bad but there is
little proof they will benefit us. In
fact, they may increase conflict
via centralisation, which is
favoured by some. But other ideas
are truly bad because they require
invoking autocracy, eg. army rule,
technocracy and hybrid regimes.
The latest idea enamouring many
is the ‘Beijing Consensus’. Sages
say it delivers fast progress with
democracy at the bottom and
meritocracy on top. Yet there is
little proof it works in diverse
states. China’s success thrives on
the huge capacities and reach of
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CSS Magazine Edition 7
its Communist Party. We have no
comparable entity. Foreign
models from very different states
can’t be copied-pasted. Ayub’s
similar model of local democracy
and a federal technocracy
delivered elitist growth and the
1971 war. But some still praise it as
it serves their interests.
Unfortunately, they ignore ideas
which work quite well in states
like ours regionally and that are
slowly becoming the ‘Saarc
Consensus’. These include
democracy, the parliamentary
system, civilian sway, no role for
military or faith in politics and
regular free polls.
Almost every Saarc state is
moving towards democracy.
The model started in India and Sri
Lanka. Others have slowly
overcome their own threats to
democracy to adopt it. The
threats included absolute
monarchies in Nepal, Bhutan and
the Maldives, which ended in
Nepal after a long Maoist war, in
Bhutan via monarchy-led reforms
and in Maldives via assembly
action. Nepal also averted the
Maoist threat to democracy as its
Maoists embraced democracy. In
Bangladesh, the threat was from
army forays that ended. We have
parliamentary democracy but
military forays have rigged the
system. Finally, Afghanistan frees
itself from one threat only to face
a new one: monarchy,
communism and now the Taliban.
Yet almost every Saarc state is
moving at some pace towards
democracy. The three most
developed ones (India, Sri Lanka
and Bangladesh) are wedded to
parliamentary democracy which
has given them some progress
despite corruption and dynastic
politics. So are Nepal and Bhutan.
Presidentialism exists only in
Afghanistan and the Maldives.
Only one Saarc military is still into
politics and states other than
Afghanistan and Pakistan are
formally secular. True, not even
India has grown like China with
this model. But Saarc states are
very different from East Asian
ones. They cannot grow faster by
copying East Asian autocracies
and would, in fact, suffer badly
under them due to their greater
diversity.
The situation even politically is
not perfect. Bangladesh is
crushing its opposition.
Extremism is rising in India and
threatens its progress and
delicate social fabric, as with us.
But Indian extremism is more
puzzling. Here, establishment
elements and external powers like
the US and Saudi Arabia played a
key role in fanning societal
extremism. Pakistan was created
in the name of faith and has been
globally less integrated. Working
on these issues could reduce
extremism. But India was made on
a secular promise and is facing
increased extremism despite
decades of growth and global
integration. Its extremism has
been fanned by political forces
with no input from non-political
or external forces and thus is
more home-grown and structural.
Despite all this, power resides
largely with politicians in all states
and there is little chance of the
end of electoral democracy or
even a hybrid system, except in
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The logic for autocracy is fed via
www.nearpeer.org
stories of sleaze by Nawaz Sharif
and Asif Zardari destroying our
economy, most recently via the
Broadsheet case. But it oddly
destroys this political economy
myth as it estimates the Sharifs’
global wealth at around $800
million. Even if every penny of it
were from sleaze, that comes to
around 0.02 per cent of our total
GDP for the years the Sharifs
ruled. It weakens the legal case by
showing that 75pc of the assets
are in Pakistan known to NAB. Yet
NAB has failed to prove any
wrongdoing while cases on
foreign assets are stuck in courts.
That still leaves the
common-sense evidence from
credible sources that leading
politicians in all main parties, even
the PTI, have committed sleaze
even if court-quality proof is
missing. Thus those wedded to
the rule of law should shun them
all and support smaller clean
parties. Yet that gives no grounds
for shunning the Saarc
democratic consensus and
chasing autocratic panaceas. That
is the moral from the Urdu idiom
about the crow which lost its own
gait in copying swans.
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Recreating
classrooms
Published in The Tribune
As technology becomes
ubiquitous, how we think, obtain
information, travel and work is
increasingly dependent upon the
way in which technology
intervenes in our lives. The
exponential growth of technology
has changed our world and the
digital future we once envisioned
is here.
In developing countries, where
infrastructure in sectors such as
health, transportation and
education are fragmented,
exponential technologies have the
potential to cause disruption. Not
too long ago we witnessed this in
Pakistan with the penetration of
Careem and its transformation of
our transportation sector. What is
most intriguing in this case is the
provision of a personalised
solution. One that can be obtained
at the press of a button, from a
device held in the palms of your
hand. At the heart of this is one
fundamental element — access to
an internet connection.
A 2016 report by the World Bank
states that access to the internet
significantly affects economic
development by fostering
inclusion, improving efficiency
and boosting innovation.
Compared to an average 10%
global increase in internet users,
Pakistan saw an increase of 20%
at the start of the year. Broadband
coverage is expanding across the
country and a study showed that a
staggering one million Pakistanis
are going online every month via
their smartphones with a total of
29 million mobile internet users
recorded in 2016.
Mobile phone technology was
leveraged by a Mobilink-Unesco
SMS-based literacy programme
aimed at improving literacy
among girls in a village of
Hafizabad where an astounding
54% girls achieved an ‘A’ result
after completing the programme
compared to a meagre 27%
previously. Out of 50 million
children between the ages of five
and 16, 24 million are out of school
in Pakistan. For women, the
situation is abysmal with only 51%
ever having attended school, a
number that is even lower in rural
areas. Contributing factors range
from distance to schools and
limited financial resources, as
monetary constraints lead families
to prioritise boys’ education over
girls’.
Pakistan’s education crisis is no
breaking news. An oversimplified
account of the situation is
two-fold. On one hand, the issue
stems from the quantity of
educational institutions relative to
the surge in population and on the
other the quality of education that
they provide which determines
student retention rates.
Consequently, policymakers and
educationists face the conundrum
of which problem to solve first.
Should the number of schools and
number of children enrolled be
increased followed by
improvements in the quality of
education, or vice versa? In the
midst of balanced arguments for
either course of action, taking a
look at the future of education
through the lens of technological
innovation reveals some
enlightening possibilities.
www.nearpeer.org
Across the world, education
technology, or edtech, is
recreating classrooms through
revised arrangements of teaching
and learning practices. Take Khan
Academy for instance, its mission
to expand a network of free
instructional videos and a
personalised learning dashboard
to students worldwide enables
access to education anywhere and
at any time by virtue of having an
internet connection. An influx of
massive open online courses,
popularly known as MOOC, is also
modifying higher education
through platforms such as
Coursera by providing various
university courses online. Most of
them, completely for free.
Moreover, cognitive computing is
paving the way for personalised
learning. The IBM in collaboration
with Sesame Street is developing
a personalised digital language
learning tool for primary school
children. And this is just the tip of
the iceberg.
Our current education system is
extensively criticised for its
assumption that all students are
created equal. For the 21st century
learner this premise is
appropriately challenged and
replaced with an understanding of
the vastly different individual
needs and capacities of students
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today. When utilised effectively, with human intervention, limited

technology may provide tutor-like
experiences without breaking the
bank. However, to what extent do
these methods offer a viable
solution to educate the children of
Pakistan?
There is no blanket technology
solution to education. Correctly
leveraging the internet and smart
technology may help break down
the barriers to learning
particularly for the bottom of the
pyramid, the largest untapped
consumer segment in the world
which constitutes 60 million of
our country’s population — a
group characterised by illiteracy.
For them, the potential of edtech
is immense.
Government schools in Pakistan
are notorious for their lack of
teaching staff, basic facilities and
scarce resources with Alif Ailaan
recording 6,164 non-functional,
ghost schools in Sindh alone.
According to an IBM report, new
digital tools, advanced analytics
and cognitive systems are
facilitating a utopia of teaching
shifting education from a
homogenous one-to-many
experience to one that is
immersive and personalised. In a
situation where 29% of
government schools are run by
single teachers and 16% are
overcrowded single-room
schools, can a move away from
the traditional brick-and-mortar
school challenge barriers to
accessing education for our most
marginalised children?
budgets and pushback against
rising tuition costs hinder the
adoption of technology at
low-income institutions. In light
of the deplorable state of
Pakistan’s schools and teaching
talent, will bringing education to
the palms of our children give
them the opportunity to become
active participants in our
economy and eventually, the
world?
The pace at which infrastructure
develops to support a digital
ecosystem enabling a robust
edtech sector is the biggest
obstacle to achieving this future.
Much of the existing debate is on
education centres on government
policy reforms, institutional
inefficiencies and appropriate
budget allocations. While we live
in the midst of a digital world, we
need to take a step forward and
explore innovative approaches to
solving our education crisis with
urgency.

Traditional schooling methods

lack rigour and an ability to tailor
education. While pedagogical
research proposes digital
mediums are ideal when coupled

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Pre Partition History of Pakistan:

A bird eye view

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Significance of Delhi Sultanate

-Minority conqured the vast land

-Sustained Mongol attacks
-Created an administration system,
which became the foundation
for the Mughal empire

Comander of the mughal army,

governor of Bihar took advantage of
Humayun's weakness

He defeated Humayun at the battle

of Chaunasa, 1540

Revenue Admin reforms, collected based on

measurements of land. constructed GT
road. Introduced currency and judical
reforms. Died in 1545 from a gun powder
explosion

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Arrival of Muslims in India: 3 phases

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Muslims’ Reformist Movements

1-Sheikh Ahmed Sirhindi (1564- 1624)
Name Sheikh Ahmed Sirhindi
Title Hazrat Mujaddid Alf Sani (reformer of the second millennium)
Birth -Death 26 June 1564 - died in 1624
Silsila Nakshbandi
Aim Rid Islam of the Hindu pantheism
Short Bio Born in Sirhind, Punjab. Basic edu at home, then at Sialkot.
Criticized Wahdat ul Wajud
Context Non-muslim practices had become a prominent feature of the
Muslim way of life
Books/Works Tuheed -i-Shuhud, ittiba e nubuwwah
Ruler Akbar and Jahangir
Impacts Muslim revival, tackled misinformation spread by Akbar,
Muslim separatism (identity and mixture with Hinduism), 2
nation theory, elevated position of practicing Muslims,
strengthened faith of the people, improvement in character,
“Spiritual Guardian of the Muslims of Subcontinent ” Iqbal
Services Opposed innovations of Akbar
No mysticisms without Sariah
Importance of Namaz and Fasting stressed
Preached to the elites and the nobility
Did not prostrate to Jahangir
Countered unorthodox Sufi beliefs
Letters to nobles
Role Leadership, guidance, moral correction

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2-Shah Waliullah (1564- 1624)

Name Shah Waliullah

Real Name Syed Quṭ b ud Din Aḥmad
Birth-Death (1703 -1762)
Aim Socio economic and religious uplift of Muslims
Short Bio Born at the end of Aurangzeb’s reign. Educated Madrasa
Rahimiya. Further education in Hejaz. 1732 returned to Delhi
Context 2 rebellious Hindu groups: Marathas and Jats challenged the
Mughal rule. Identity crisis. Sectarian conflict. Poor
understanding of Quran. Ignorance. Social, economic,
political, and religious conditions of the Muslims were poor.
Books/Works Translation of Quran into Persian
Son translated Quran into Urdu
Ruler Crumbl ing Mughal empire
Impacts Cohesion based on religion.
Muslim revival, tackled misinformation spread by Akbar,
Muslim separatism (identity and mixture with Hinduism), 2
nation theory, elevated position of practicing Muslims,
strengthened faith of the peopl e, improvement in character.
Only Indian scholar of hi s time to identify the significance of
economics in the socioeconomic set -up.
Services Studied 4 school of thoughts then wrote reconciliatory books.
Promoted social justice and even distribution of we alth
Ijtihad over taqlid
Believed that intellectual re volution was necessary for
political change
Branches of his schools at Delhi
Identified heavy taxation, plunder of public funds, tax evasion
as a cause of Muslim downfall
Role Identified the causes of decline of Muslims in India due to lack
of Islamic way of life. Leadership, guidance, moral correction.
Letters to Abdali and Najibudduala to fight arathas. 1761
Abdali ended Maratha’s expansionist dreams a Panipat
Awakened the society to maintain moral purity

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3. Syed Ahmed Shaheed Barlavi (1786 - 1831)

Name Syed Ahmed Shaheed Barlavi

Birth-Death 1786-1831. 6 May 1861 shaheed
Short Bio Born in Rai Bareli. Father died. 1806 moved to Delhi to study
Madrasa Rahimyah. 2 years Shah Waliullah’s sons taught hi m
Quran and Hadith. 1812 joined force of Nawab Amir Khan of
Tonk. 1821-23 in KSA
Beliefs Muslims must be ruled my Muslims. Freedom can only come
from armed struggle.
st
Impacts 1 armed struggle to free Muslims from Non -Muslim rule
Not for placing a leader in power, but for Islamic purity and
unity
Servic es Jihad against the British
Jihad Movement against Sikhs (who had restricted Muslim
practices like call for prayer)
Mujahideen Movement after return from Hajj (armed and
moral struggle)
Lead soldiers in p rayer
1817 return ed to Delhi and worked on Islamic purity
Defeated Sikhs at Okara and Hazara
Disloyal generals led to his failure. Local leaders told Sikhs
ways in battle of Balakot
Role Man of action than a scholar
Unity of Allah. Simplicity of life

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4-Faraizi Movement (1830- 1857)

Name of the Faraizi word derived from farz.

Movement
Important Haji Shariatullah (1781 -1840). Born in Faridpur district of
Leaders Bengal. Son Muhammad Mohsin or Dadu Mia. Titu Mir. 1831
died fighting British.
Timeline 1830 -1857
Place East Bengal
Aim Implement obligatory religious duties
Context Situation of Bengali Muslims terrible. British oppression left
them poor and illiterate. Landlords, mostly Hindus, oppressed
poor Muslim peasants.
Ruler British
Services Haji Give up un-Islamic practices and implement obligatory
commandments.
Forbade Tazia in Muharram
Forbade singing and dancing in the weddings
Declared the country Dar ul Harb
Dadu protect peasantry from zamindars and eu indigo
planters
Social justice for the masses
Asked followers to settle in lands managed by the government
1857 revolt: put under arrest
Titu mobilized Muslim peasants against Hindu Landlord
Krishna Deva Raj
Role Separatism in Bengal. Desire of freedom from Hindu landlords
(Christophe jaffrel ot termed it to be the main reason for
Bengal bring a party to the Pakistan resolution)

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War of Independence: An Overview

Economy (free Religion (British

market left peasants interfered too much Causes of the War of
at the mercy of with indeginious Independence as
merchants and religions) seen by the British
moneylanders)

Need for more

communication
with the Indian
Staff and civilians

Realized that socail

reforms like ban on
satti is not going to sit Reorganized the
well with the Indians. army. More Sikhs
No more interferance Lessons that and Balochis taken
especially in the British Learned
religion from WOI

It was felt that the

peasants who took Power to be
advantage of naintained through
landreforms Priences and large
revolted. No new landlords
land reforms for a
long time

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Independence Approaches

Rammohan Roy introduced modern education education in India

Swami Vivekananda first took an armed struugle and later a mainstream movement in INC

Inpired by A.O. Hume in 1885 73 delegates met in Bombay and formed INC. Initially just a debating forum
that proposed uncontroversial resolutions and praised the Raj. Most members were western educated
Hindu elites

1905 Swadeshi (self-reliance) Movement by the Lal-Bal-Pal triumvirate. They boycotted imported items
and british goods. They mobilized people to protest against the partition of Bengal

Aurobindo Ghosh. Chandra Bose's military approach. Sahajanand Saraswati wanted economic and
political freedom for the peasantry. Rabindranath Tagore used litrature, poetry and speech to stir
feelings

1920s Gandhi's non-violence and self reliance and Jinnah's constitutional reforms and minority
rights

1817-1898 Muhammadan Literary Syed Amir Ali

efforts to harmonize the Society founded by (1849-1948)
British-Muslim relations Nawab Abdul Latif Central National
1886 sponsored AMEC Muhammadan
Aligarh Movt Association
feared political
organization of Muslims

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Congress and Formation of AIML

-Protect and advance the rights and the

interests of Indian Muslims
-Represent their needs and aspirations

-Feeling of loyality among the

Muslims for the British
-End all misconceptions and
misunderstanding

-Prevent the growth of ill will between

Muslims ans other nationalities

Main Objectives of the Muslim League

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Jinnah’s 14 Points

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Important Quotes

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Democracy
• I understand democracy as something that gives the weak the same chance as the strong. -Mohandas
Gandhi

• A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. -Theodore Roosevelt

• A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. -Theodore Roosevelt

• It is my principle that the will of the majority should always prevail. -Thomas Jefferson

• Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real
safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education. -Franklin D. Roosevelt

Education
• “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world” – Nelson Mandela

• “The highest result of education is tolerance” – Hellen Keller

• “When you educate one person you can change a life, when you educate many you can change the world”-
Shai Reshef.

• “If you are planning for a year, sow rice; if you are planning for a decade, plant trees; if you are planning for
a lifetime, educate people” – Chinese Proverb

• “Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today.”
-Malcolm X

• “Education is a progressive discovery of our own ignorance.” Will Durant

COVID 19
• "Ultimately, the greatest lesson that COVID-19 can teach humanity is that we are all in this together." Kiran
Mazumdar Shaw

• "Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we
may fear less." Marie Curie

• "The secret of crisis management is not good vs. bad, it’s preventing the bad from getting worse." Andy
Gilman

• There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. -Vladimir Lenin

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• We are facing a human crisis unlike any we have experienced and our social fabric and cohesion is under
stress. - Amina J. Mohammed UN Deputy Secretary General

• The pandemic is a clear test of international cooperation – a test we have essentially failed, a lack of global
preparedness, cooperation, unity and solidarity. - Antonio Guterress UN Secretary General

Climate Change
• “We don’t have time to sit on our hands as our planet burns. For young people, climate change is bigger than
election or re-election. It’s life or death.” -Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, US Politician & Activist

• Climate Change is no longer some far-off problem; it is happening here, it is happening now. Barack Obama

• “By polluting the oceans, not mitigating CO2 emissions and destroying our biodiversity, we are killing our
planet. Let us face it, there is no planet B.” -Emmanuel Macron

• “Climate change knows no borders. It will not stop before the Pacific Islands and the whole of the interna-
tional community here has to shoulder a responsibility to bring about sustainable development.” -Angela
Merkel

• Climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security. -Barack Obama

Women Empowerment
• “We cannot all succeed when half of us are held back. We call upon our sisters around the world to be brave
– to embrace the strength within themselves and realize their full potential.” -Malala Yousafzai

• “I can honestly say that I was never affected by the question of the success of an undertaking. If I felt it was
the right thing to do, I was for it regardless of the possible outcome.” - Golda Meir

• If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman. -Margaret Thatcher

• Women in politics are more honest and forthright. We are not in it for the ego gratification.-Hanan Ashrawi

• Human rights are women's rights, and women's rights are human rights. -Hillary Clinton

Globalization
• Globalization is a fact, because of technology, because of an integrated global supply chain, because of
changes in transportation. And we're not going to be able to build a wall around that. -Barack Obama

• It has been said that arguing against globalization is like arguing against the laws of gravity. -Kofi Annan

• I recognize that globalization has helped many people rise out of poverty, but it has also damned many
others to starve to death. It is true that global wealth is growing in absolute terms, but inequalities have also
grown and new poverty arisen. -Pope Francis

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• If globalization is to succeed, it must succeed for poor and rich alike. It must deliver rights no less than
riches. It must provide social justice and equity no less than economic prosperity and enhanced communica-
tion. -Kofi Annan

• We must create a kind of globalization that works for everyone... and not just for a few. -Nestor Kirchner

• The greatest weapon of mass destruction is corporate economic globalization. -Kenny Ausubel

• You have no choice but to operate in a world shaped by globalization and the information revolution. There
are two options: adapt or die. -Andy Grove

• The negative side to globalization is that it wipes out entire economic systems and in doing so wipes out
the accompanying culture. -Peter L. Berger

Islamophobia
• “Do not use freedom of speech to cause us pain by insulting our Holy Prophet. That's all we want.” -Imran
Khan

• “Terrorism has nothing to do with religion, Islam or otherwise. Terrorism is born of fundamentalism not of
religion.” -Abhijit Naskar

• “Terrorism is born of fundamentalism not of religion.” -Abhijit Naskar

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CSS 2021
Guess Questions

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Essay
We learn to be our own best friend, because we fall top easily into the trap of begging our own worst
enemies.
Frailty, thy name is woman
Good governance and social media
Pakistan’s Health System
Democracy has failed to deliver in Pakistan
Covid-19 has made the world more unequal
Islam and the West
Is Climate Change a Myth?
COVID 19 and decline of Globalization
Palestine Cause and the divided Muslim Ummah

Pak Affairs
1. Briefly discuss cultural heritage of Pakistan?
2. Aligarh movement was not just an educational movement?
3. Lahore resolution is magna carta of Pakistan. Do you agree with the statement?
4. Evaluate Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine in the changing regional apparatus?
5. Explain the significance of 18th Amendment? Is 18th Amendment a hurdle in Pakistan’s active response to
pandemic?
6. Financial hurdles are the main cause of Pakistan’s failure to address its energy issue, and CPEC is the only
solution to remedy this sector. Discuss in detail.
7. In order to grow economically, Pakistan needs to stop knocking IMF’s door. Do you agree with the state-
ment?
8. How can Pakistan undertake a comprehensive health system strengthening strategy?
9. Suggest suitable policy options for Pakistan to revive its relation with the neighboring countries?

Current Affairs
1. What agencies deal with corruption in Pakistan? What strategies can improve Pakistan’s anti-graft mea-
sures?
2. Evaluate the interests of Israel, UAE, Bahrain and Morroco in the normalization of their relations. What are
the implications for Pakistan?
3. How can Pakistan improve its position on Kashmir in front of the international community despite its poor
economy?
4. What is US’s Indo Pacific Strategy, and how will it change under the Biden administration. [Hint: read the
declassified policy on the dept of state’s website]
5. Discuss China’s role as an emerging global power during Covid-19?
6. Lockdowns have improved the likelihood for a slow pandemic, but it has stunted the progress in the
country’s human capital growth. [Hint: discuss education]
7. Discuss Paris Climate Accord, and how will the world after covid—afraid of interconnectedness and global-
ization—enforce this environmental regime?
8. How will Global economic Slowdown impact Pakistan in 2021?

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Islamic Studies
1. What are the spiritual and communal significances of namaz and zakat?
2. What was the role of Prophet (S) as a leader in the time of crisis?
3. What is the role of women in Islam? Does the modern day feminism contradict or agrees with this role?
4. Following the example of Prophet Muhammad (S), how can the ummah deal with Islamophobia?
5. What is Ijtihad? How can the doors of ijtihad be opened today?
6. What is the concept of self-purification and how can it be achieved?
7. What is the system of public administration in Islam? How does a ruler of a Muslim country ensure good
governance? [Hint: Do mention H.Ali’s letter to the governor of Egypt. Link it with UNDP’s 8 good governance
characteristics]
8. How is the Islamic social system different from the western social system?

General Science and Ability

1. What are earthquakes? Describe the various types and ways of measuring them.
2. What are the different types of semi-conductors? Give examples
3. How do fertilizers contribute towards air and water pollution? Give examples
4. What are plastics? How can the use of plastics be reduced to save the environment?
5. Discuss five differences between a plant and an animal cell with diagrams of both
6. Discuss the functions of Liver and kidneys in human body
7. Explain the structure and function of human eye with a diagram.
8. Explain the symptoms of corona virus In detail
9. What is air pollution? Explain the causes and effects of air pollution.
10. What is smog? Discuss some of the steps Pakistan can take to reduce the level of smog in the atmosphere.
11. What is the greenhouse effect?
12. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of incineration and recycling?
13. How are carbohydrates important for human body?
14. Discuss the different kinds of proteins structure.
15. Define networking. Briefly compare the different types of networking.
16. What is an optical fiber? Discuss some of the advantages and disadvantages
17. Why are antioxidants necessary for human body?

Gender Studies
1. A gendered world cuts down a woman’s wings even before she takes a flight. Do you agree with the state-
ment?
2. Discuss whether liberal or radical feminism is better suited to solve Pakistan’s gender issues?
3. Define intersectionality? Do you believe that the present feminist movements in Pakistan lack intersection-
ality?
4. Evaluate electoral laws in Pakistan. Do they support women voters and election candidates? Suggest
remedies to improve women’s position in the country’s politics?
5. Me too is the forth wave of feminism? Discuss.

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6. What is the difference betweem Violence on women and Gender based violence?
7. What is the nature vs nurture debate?
8. What does Shermine Obaid’s work on MCU’s Miss Marvel mean for Pakistani women, and women of colour
at large?
9. Difference in sex and gender
10. Short notes
• APWA
• Gender sensitivity
• Gender performance
• Women Laws in Pakistan
• Women Studies/Gender Studies in Pakistan

Constitutional Law
1. How was the supremacy of parliament achieved in UK and what are the limitations of this supremacy?
2. Examine the role of political parties both in UK and US in formulating public opinion on major issues in
foreign policy making
3. Indian Constitution is a borrowed constitution. Discuss
4. What is the difference in the principles of policies and fundamental rights in Pakistan’s constitution?
5. What is the difference in civil and common law?
6. What was the Indian independence act?
7. Discuss the process of constitutional and in Russia

Political Science 1
1. Discuss plato’s republic and its significance in the modern world?
2. What was Al Farabi’s concept of an ideal city and his views on democracy?
3. What is the legal concept of sovereignty: monistic and absolute?
4. Discuss various types of voting methods with real world examples; which of these methods is the nest in
your opinion
5. Is it correct to say that Machiavelli was an apostle of Power Politics?
6. Describe Al-Mawardi’s theory of Imamate.
7. Discuss concepts of Millat & Territorial Nationalism by Iqbal and their significance in history.
8. Short notes
a. Negative and Postitive liberty
b. Theory of Justice
c. Categorical imperative
d. Interest groups

Political Science 2
1. The French politics is not as liberal as the Frenchmen claim. Do you Agree?
2. Iranian political system is a blend of theocracy and democracy. Do you agree.
3. What is Germany’s local government system?

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4. The post-world war 2 world order created a new form of colonialism?

5. What are the determinants of Pakistan’s foreign policy?
6. Discuss the Asian Financial Crisis and the Malaysia’s strategy in dealing with it.
7. What were contributions of Shah Walliuulah, Jinnah and Iqbal to Muslim separatism in India?
8. Which amongst the three of Pakistan’s constitutions best fits its needs.

European History
1. French Revolution and Napoleon
How did Fear/Rumors/Ideas define the course of French revolution?
The philosophers were removed from the French Revolution and it was hunger that drove the actual revolu-
tion?
How did the foreign policy of Napoleon impact the politics in Europe?
The wars of Revolutionary France and Napoleon instilled nationalism in Europe. Discuss.
2. Congress of Vienna
“The Congress of Vienna was congress of aristocrats, to whom the ideas of nationality (20) and democracy as
proclaimed by the French Revolution were in-comprehensible or loathsome. The rulers re-arranged Europe
according to their own desires, disposing of it as if it were, their own property” (C D- Hazen). Critically
examine the work of Congress of Vienna.
3. Unification of Italy and Germany
How Bismarck’s diplomacy led to the German Reunification and changed the course of European Politics?
Who amongst Mazzini, Garibaldi, and Cavour played the most significant role in the Italian revolution?
4. Rise of Fascism
What factors led to rise of dictatorship in Europe after the first world war?
5. World War 1
Why United States broke its traditional isolation to join the allies in the first world war?
6. Cold War
Ho did the German Reunification Impact Eastern Europe and Russia?
7. Short Notes
• Charles de Gaulle
• Versailles Peace Settlement
• Marshal Tito
• Marshal Aids

Public Administration
1. It is easier to make a constitution than to run it. Discuss in the light of Politics Administration dichotomy.
2. Discuss in detail the budgeting process of Pakistan. Are you satisfied with the process? Discuss with
practical examples.
3. The government is seized with the objective of implementing civil service reform in order to create a
structure that is more efficient and responsive. Suggest how the government should balance its strategy
between the effort to improve the personnel as well as the organisation and methods of its government
offices.

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4. There are three major forms of administrative decentralization; deconcentration, delegation and devolu-
tion each with different set of characteristics. Argue which one is the most suitable form within the Paki-
stan's socio-political context?
5. Traditional managerial approach to public administration stresses the need for rationality in decision
making. List and discuss the necessary steps to be taken to develop a rational comprehensive model in
decision making. Also give a specific, comprehensive and logical critique of the same model.
6. Elaborate the interference of HALLO EFFECT and STEREOTYPING in the recruitment of knowledge work-
ers.?
7. Privatization as a global phenomenon has major implications for Bureaucratic role and scope, especially in
state dominated political system. Discuss the statement with for or against arguments.
8. Short Notes:
a. Zero based budgeting
b. Judicial Activism
c. Social Policy
d. Good governance
e. Administrative buffering

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