Lahore University of Management Sciences

MATH 230 - Probability

Year: 2011-2012
Semester: Fall
Credit Hours: 3
Instructors: Mujahid Abbas
Office Hours: TBA
Room: 129
Ext: 8017
Email: mujahid@lums.edu.pk

Description:

This is a first course in probability, preparation for further courses in stochastic

processes, statistics, and statistical mechanics. An understanding of probability concepts
is essential for students who want to pursue their studies in physical sciences, social
science, economics and engineering.
The course starts with introduction of probability terms and methods of computing simple
and conditional probabilities. The Baye’s theorem will be taught with applications. The
concept of discrete and continuous random variables will be given. Bivariate random
variables will be explored with marginal and conditional distributions. The expectation
and variance of random variables will be studied. Covariance and correlations of random
variables will be discussed. Special discrete and continuous probability distributions will
be explored with their real life applications. Moments and moment generating function
will be discussed.

Goals:

At the end of the course the student should have familiarity with the basics of
probability theory and the ability to formulate some real-life problems in the language of
probability.

Prerequisites:

Calculus II
Text:
Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Walpole, Myers, Myers,
Prentice-Hall.

Recommended Books for Reading Purposes:

A First Course in Probability (6th Edition) by Sheldon Ross (Author).

Grading:
40% Final
35% Midterm
25% Quizzes and/or Assignments

Topics:

Week No. Topic(s)

1 Sample space, Events, Counting of sample points, and
Probability of an event.
2 Additive rules, Conditional Probability, Multiplicative rules
and Bay's rule.
3 Concept of random variable, Discrete and Continuous
probability distributions.
4 Joint probability distributions Mean of a random variable.
5 Expectation, Variance, and Covariance.
6 Mean and variance of linear combination of random variables,
Cheybysheve theorem.
7 Discrete probability distributions (Uniform, Binomial and
Hyper geometric).
8 Midterm and Poisson distribution.
9 Introduction of continuous distribution.
10 Continuous probability distribution.
11 Normal distribution.
12 Approximation and application of normal distribution.
13 Central Limit Theorems.
14 Law of large numbers.