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Analisis Transportasi (10/10)

Choice Modelling
PL5101 Metode Analisis Perencanaan

Dr. I Gusti Ayu Andani ST,MT Semester Ganjil

SAPPK ITB
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Method 3: Choice Modelling

• A utility function measures the degree of
satisfaction (or cost if negative) that is
associated with each mode choice.
• Assumption: travelers make rational choices
between available modes; a traveler selects
the mode with highest utility value if he/she
has access to perfect information about each
travel mode
• the relevant independent variables to include
in the model
• The utility function is typically expressed as a
linear weighted sum of the independent
variables (X1,…,Xn ).

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Method 3: Choice Modelling

j
car share: Pij1
i PT share: Pij 2
all modes bike share: Pij 3

Vijv =  0v + 1v X ijv1 +  2v X ijv 2 + 3v X ijv3

Vijv
e
Pijv =
e
Vijw

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Contoh Mode Choice Modelling

A B C
car
VCA = −0.6  cCA
car
A 2 B
A 0 200 150

B 200 0 200
train
VCA = −0.5 − 0.8  cCA
train

C 150 200 0 2
3
Vijv
e
Pijv = , ( i.e.  = 1)
e
C Vijw
car train
93 57 w
car
0 200 93 0 0 57 −0.64
train e
200 0 200 0 0 0 P car
= −0.64 −0.5−0.83
+e
CA
93 200 0 57 0 0 e
car train
= 62%
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Contoh Soal
Consider cities A and B that are connected by a local road. Furthermore, between these cities is a train service available
with a frequency of 6 trains per hour (departing every 10 minutes). The travel time by car is 60 minutes, and by train is
40 minutes. The total number of travellers between A and B is 1000.
car

train
A B
3x per hour

In order to determine the modal split, a multinomial logit model is used with the following estimated utility functions:
V car = 1.0 − 0.09TC
where V train = −0.12 A − 0.10TT − 0.16F
TC is the in-vehicle travel time by car [min.],
TT is the in-vehicle travel time by train [min.],
A is the average access waiting time [min.] (waiting time to board the first train)
F is the average transfer waiting time [min.] (waiting time to transfer to another train)
(a) Determine the number of travellers taking the train.
V car = 1.0 − 0.09  60 = −4.4
V train = −0.12 10 − 0.10  40 − 0.16  0 = −5.2
The share of travellers taking the train is computed using the logit model:
e−5.2
train
eV
= −4.4 −5.2 = 0.31
e +e
V car V train
e +e 5
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