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BMS1042 Tutorial 1
BMS1042 Tutorial 1
BMS1042 Tutorial 1
BMS1042
Tutorial 1 – Introduction to
Epidemiology and Public Health
Basic Epidemiology readings:
Basic Epidemiology readings:
•Chapter 1 What is epidemiology pg 1‐11
•Chapter 5 Causation in epidemiology pg 83‐96
Tutorial 1 Objectives
•
• Define epidemiology and describe how it is used in public health
• Explain the concepts of “sufficient” and “necessary” in causation
E l i th t f “ ffi i t” d “ ”i ti
• Describe the different criteria for establishing causation including
temporal relationship, plausibility, consistency, strength, dose‐
response relationship, reversibility and study design
• Explain the concept of confounding and describe how to control
for confounding in order to help establish causation.
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What we’ll cover today
• Definition of epidemiology
– Examples of epidemiology in the past
E l f id i l i th t
• Definition of causation
– Difference in sufficient and necessary causes
– Types of factors in causation
• Bradford Hill criteria for causation
• Other things to consider
• Exercises
Definition of epidemiology
• “The study of the distribution and
d t
determinants of health‐related states or
i t f h lth l t d t t
events in specified populations and the
application of this study to the prevention and
control of health problems.”
(Last, p. 2, Basic Epidemiology)
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Examples of epidemiology achievements
• Smallpox (pp 6 – 7)
– Cowpox identified in 1790’s, eradicated on 8 May 1980.
• Methyl mercury poisoning (p. 7)
y yp g (p )
– Mercury compounds released from Minamata, Japan, caused
accumulation of methyl mercury in fish severe poisoning in people
who ate them.
• Rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease (p. 7 – 8)
– Associated with poverty, poor housing and overcrowding.
– Disease rate decreased during 1900’s – before penicillin.
• Iodine deficiency diseases
– Goitre and cretinism identified > 400 yrs ago.
– Use of iodized salt to treat goitre found in 1915.
Examples of epidemiology achievements
• Tobacco use, asbestos and lung cancer (p. 9)
– Lung cancer rare until 1930’s, then it dramatically increased.
– British doctor’s study in 1950’s (Richard Doll et al) established link
between smoking and lung cancer.
– Also combined effect of smoking and asbestos (Exercise 3)
• Hip fractures (p. 9 – 10)
– Fall injuries are a growing problem with aging population – hip
fracture (neck of femur) in particular.
– Research done to try to reduce burden of hip fractures.
• HIV / AIDS (p. 10)
/
– First identified in 1981. Most deaths occur in low/middle income
countries. AIDS has a long incubation period.
• SARS (p. 10 – 11), Nov 2002 & “Swine flu” 2009
– Showed the vulnerability to new infections.
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Activity 1: Public Health Everyday
With the person next to you discuss examples of public health that you see every day.
Describe on for each scenario:
1. When you are commuting to work/school/or going out
2. At university or hospital
3. Within the media
Share your observations with the group.
Questions to discuss:
• How difficult was to come up with public health examples?
• What are the different public health initiatives that effect our everyday lives?
• What role does the media play in public health? Give both a positive and negative example
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Definition of Causation
• Causation
– “A cause of a disease or injury is an event, condition,
characteristic or a combination of these factors which plays an
i
important role in producing the health outcome. Logically, a
l i d i h h lh L i ll
cause must precede an outcome.” (p. 83)
– Understanding the cause of a disease or injury is important
for: prevention, correct diagnosis and treatment.
– Cause must come before the outcome.
– We use the terms “sufficient” and “necessary” to describe
causation [next slide].
Sufficient vs. Necessary
• Sufficient cause: present of a factor is enough to result in disease.
• Necessary cause: disease never present when factor absent.
• Each sufficient cause has a necessary cause as a component.
Each sufficient cause has a necessary cause as a component
– E.g. Chicken salad and creamy dessert could both be sufficient for
salmonella outbreak, but Salmonella bacteria is the necessary cause.
• Remember: there is rarely one single cause of a health outcome.
Often multi‐factorial causation (p. 84)
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Sufficient vs. Necessary
• Sufficient cause: present of a factor is enough to result in disease.
• Necessary cause: disease never present when factor absent.
• Examples:
– It is necessary to be exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis to
get TB, but the exposure is not sufficient for the disease state
to occur. (Poor immune system also contributes ...)
– Cigarette smoking is neither necessary nor sufficient for the
development of lung cancer. (Non‐smokers get lung cancer
too. Smoking is a strong risk factor for lung cancer.)
– A necessary and sufficient cause of Ebola Fever is the
Ebola virus.
– A necessary and sufficient cause of Huntington’s is the genetic
mutation.
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Causal pathway (p. 85)
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Activity 2
• Some of the risk factors for heart disease are:
smoking hypertension obesity diabetes inactivity
smoking, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, inactivity,
stress, and type A personality.
Are these risk factors necessary or sufficient causes?
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Activity 2
• 1. Some of the risk factors for heart disease are:
smoking, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, inactivity,
stress and type A personality
stress, and type A personality.
Are these risk factors necessary or sufficient causes?
• Answer: NONE of these risk factors are necessary or sufficient
for developing heart disease.
• (Sufficient: presence of a factor is enough to result in disease.
( p g
• Necessary: disease never present when factor absent.)
• If something is a “risk factor”, it means that the risk or
likelihood of getting the disease is higher for those with the
exposure/risk factor.
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Activity 2
2. What are the sufficient and necessary causes
of:
f
• Bacterial pneumonia in general?
• Pneumococcal pneumonia?
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Activity 2
• What are the sufficient and necessary causes of:
• Bacterial pneumonia in general?
Bacterial pneumonia in general?
• Pneumococcal pneumonia?
• There are a number of different types of bacteria that cause
bacterial pneumonia.
• So for bacterial pneumonia in general, no single one organism is
a necessary cause.
• For pneumococcal pneumonia, Streptococcus pneumoniae is a
necessary cause – without this organism, the disease will not
occur.
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Factors in causation (p. 87)
• Some/all may be necessary, rarely one is sufficient.
– Pre‐disposing: age, sex
– Enabling/disabling: low income, poor nutrition.
low income poor nutrition
– Precipitating: exposure to a disease agent.
– Reinforcing: repeated exposures
• “Risk factor” used to describe factors associated with
disease, but not causal. (e.g. Smoking, lung cancer.)
• Attributable fraction quantifies the likely
preventive impact of eliminating a specific causal
factor. [Exercise 3, more in Tutorial 2 on this.]
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• Using the table (above) consider the questions:
• What proportion of disease amongst smokers (not exposed to
asbestos) would be eliminated if you took away smoking?
p p g (
• What proportion of disease amongst asbestos workers (non‐
smokers) would prevent if they did not work with asbestos?
• For smokers who work with asbestos, what proportion of
disease would be eliminated if you eliminated both?
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• Using the table (above) consider the questions:
• What proportion of disease amongst smokers (not exposed to
asbestos) would be eliminated if you took away smoking?
– 123 – 11 = 112 deaths per 100,000. Proportion = 112 / 123 = 0.91.
• What proportion of disease amongst asbestos workers (non‐
p p g (
smokers) would prevent if they did not work with asbestos?
• For smokers who work with asbestos, what proportion of
disease would be eliminated if you eliminated both?
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• Using the table (above) consider the questions:
• What proportion of disease amongst smokers (not exposed to
asbestos) would be eliminated if you took away smoking?
– 123 – 11 = 112 deaths per 100,000. Proportion = 112 / 123 = 0.91.
• What proportion of disease amongst asbestos workers (non‐
p p g (
smokers) would prevent if they did not work with asbestos?
– 58 – 11 = 47 deaths per 100,000. Proportion = 47 / 58 = 0.82.
• For smokers who work with asbestos, what proportion of
disease would be eliminated if you eliminated both?
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• Using the table (above) consider the questions:
• What proportion of disease amongst smokers (not exposed to
asbestos) would be eliminated if you took away smoking?
– 123 – 11 = 112 deaths per 100,000. Proportion = 112 / 123 = 0.91.
• What proportion of disease amongst asbestos workers (non‐
smokers) would prevent if they did not work with asbestos?
k ) ld t if th did t k ith b t ?
– 58 – 11 = 47 deaths per 100,000. Proportion = 47 / 58 = 0.82.
• For smokers who work with asbestos, what proportion of
disease would be eliminated if you eliminated both?
– 602 – 11 = 591 per 100,000. Proportion = 591 / 602 = 0.98.
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Establishing causation (Bradford‐Hill) (p. 89 – 96)
• Temporal relationship: exposure occurs before disease.
• Plausibility:
y consistent with other knowledge (can be from
g (
animal studies)
• Consistency: many studies give same finding.
• Strength of Association: Large RR/OR not essential.
• Dose‐response:
p increased exposure = increased outcome?
p
• Reversibility: remove exposure = no outcome?
• Strength of study design
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Consistency (p. 92)
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Dose‐response relationship (p. 94)
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Reversibility (p. 141 graph)
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Strength of study design ‐ evidence
Meta‐analysis
RCT
Cohort studies
Case‐control studies
Cross‐sectional studies
Ecological studies
Case series
Case reports
Ideas, editorials, opinions
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Critical questions
• If an association observed between a possible cause
(exposure) and effect (outcome/disease):
(exposure) and effect (outcome/disease):
– Is it due to selection/measurement bias?
– Is it due to confounding?
– Is it due to chance?
– Is it a causal factor?
• We will discuss bias, confounding and chance
(sampling, statistics) in subsequent tutorials.
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Activity 4
Caffeine is found in various beverages, foods and drugs, including coffee, tea and
colas. Consider the following information from a study on the relationship between
caffeine consumption during pregnancy and the risk of low birth weight and state
which of Hill’s guidelines is supported by each of the statements:
• Caffeine has a similar molecular structure to that of other chemicals that are
Caffeine has a similar molecular structure to that of other chemicals that are
known to affect human cell division and growth.
• Caffeine exposure during pregnancy could have a harmful effect because caffeine
may interfere with cell division, metabolism, and growth.
• Several animal studies have shown an association between caffeine and lower fetal
weight.
• Seven previously published epidemiologic studies of caffeine intake during
pregnancy have shown an increased risk of low birth weight offspring among
women who consumed high levels of caffeine.
• The current study showed that the risk of low birth weight increased as caffeine
consumption increased. Compared to women who did not consume any caffeine
during pregnancy, women who had low caffeine consumption had a 40% increased
risk of giving birth to a low birth weight infant, women who had moderate caffeine
consumption had a 90% increased risk, an women who had high caffeine
consumption had a 150% increased risk.
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Activity 4
Caffeine is found in various beverages, foods and drugs, including coffee, tea and
colas. Consider the following information from a study on the relationship between
caffeine consumption during pregnancy and the risk of low birth weight and state
which of Hill’s guidelines is supported by each of the statements:
• Caffeine has a similar molecular structure to that of other chemicals that are
Caffeine has a similar molecular structure to that of other chemicals that are
known to affect human cell division and growth. Plausibility
• Caffeine exposure during pregnancy could have a harmful effect because caffeine
may interfere with cell division, metabolism, and growth. Plausibility
• Several animal studies have shown an association between caffeine and lower fetal
weight. Plausibility and Consistency
• Seven previously published epidemiologic studies of caffeine intake during
pregnancy have shown an increased risk of low birth weight offspring among
women who consumed high levels of caffeine. Consistency and Plausibility
• The current study showed that the risk of low birth weight increased as caffeine
consumption increased. Compared to women who did not consume any caffeine
during pregnancy, women who had low caffeine consumption had a 40% increased
risk of giving birth to a low birth weight infant, women who had moderate caffeine
consumption had a 90% increased risk, an women who had high caffeine
consumption had a 150% increased risk.
Dose response, strength of association
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Activity 5
In 1979, Robin Warren and Barry Marshall from Perth Western Australia observed
what they thought were bacteria in the biopsies from stomach ulcers. Nothing
was known at that time about this occurrence. Marshall drank a culture of the
bacteria and a few days later developed nausea and vomiting Endoscopy
bacteria and a few days later developed nausea and vomiting. Endoscopy
confirmed his gastritis. Antibiotics known to kill the bacterium resulted in the
resolution of his symptoms and the resolution of his gastritis. Warren and
Marshall won a Nobel Prize in 2005 for their work.
• Which of elements of the set of “considerations for causation” are present in
the above scenario?
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Activity 5
• In 1979, Robin Warren and Barry Marshall from Perth Western Australia
observed what they thought were bacteria in the biopsies from stomach
ulcers. Nothing was known at that time about this occurrence. Marshall drank
a culture of the bacteria and a few days later developed nausea and vomiting
a culture of the bacteria and a few days later developed nausea and vomiting.
Endoscopy confirmed his gastritis. Antibiotics known to kill the bacterium
resulted in the resolution of his symptoms and the resolution of his gastritis.
Warren and Marshall won a Nobel Prize in 2005 for their work.
• Which of elements of the set of “considerations for causation” are present in
the above scenario?
• Temporality – nausea and vomiting developed after ingestion and endoscopy
confirmed gastritis.
• Reversibility – Antibiotics resulted in the resolution of symptoms and gastritis.
• Plausibility absent ‐ Nothing was known at that time about this occurrence.
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DISCUSS????
http://www.ted.com/talks/ben_goldacre_battling_bad_science.html
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