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Fmi S14
Fmi S14
Assets … Shares
~ estimated future cash flows … current profitabiltity, future prospects …
~ expected rate of returm lower if the reputation in the capital markets is higher
risk if lower will lead to lower expected rate of return
Do 1.81
Ke 10.50% Y … axis … the intercept is the risk free rate of return, 6%
g 0%
IV D1/(ke-g)
IV 17.2381
Divyashakti Granites
11 10 9 8 7 6 5
1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81
ü SJVN … Last Year DPS 2.2 …. Ke 10% … Constant Dividend Model
IV D1/(ke-g)
IV 22
ü Revisiting SJVN …. Given EPS 4.23, BV 29.97 Constant Dividend Growth Model
DPS 2.2 2
EPS 4.23 4
BV 29.97 25
D1 2.349016
IV $72.80
Today's Market Price 21.75
eps 7.5 50 3.5
dps 4
80
47% 40%
12.5%
15% 11%
10% 5.00%
4 3
80 52.5 50
d0 3
d1
eps 5
roe 0.125
plouback 0.4
g 0.05
51.72414 52.5
ü Hindustan Unilever … Last Year DPS 34.5 …. Ke 8.5% … Constant Dividend Model
IV 405.882352941176
For the year 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
123.2 EPS (Rs) 31.2 27.9 24.2 20.8 19.1
170.3 BVPS (Rs) 38.2 36.5 33.8 31.3 30.5
109.5 DPS (Rs) 34.5 22.0 20.0 17.0 16.0
Ploughback Ratio -11% 21% 17% 18% 16%
Brands, Products, Monopoly traits, Abnormal Returns is very very high
History of over 100 years
ROE 81.7% 76.4% 71.6% 66.5% 62.6%
Expectation 8.50%
Year 20 19 18 17 16 15
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EPS 2.70 0.20 -1.00 -1.20 -3.90
BVPS 52.10 49.40 49.20 50.30 21.80
IV = D1/(ke-G)
IV = D1/(ke-G) $ 16.67
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
EPS (Rs) $ 44.80 $ 12.70 $ 6.00 $ 8.20 $ 5.90
When growth rates are higher than the cost of equity (market capitalization rate)
then … please make use of phased growth model
we can reasonably assume that … reinvested amount … rate of return to be earned will be equal to ROE
Growth Rate =Ploughed Back Ratio X ROE 5.25
=Reinvested Ratio X ROE
=(1 - Dividend Payout Ratio) X ROE
IV D1/(Ke-G)
D1 D0*(1+G) $1.91
Ke 10.50%
G 5.25%
IV $36.29
11 10 9 8 7 6 5
1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81
Drivers of Shareholder Vlaue
~ Reputation in the Capital Markets
~ Growth (Future Growth Prospects)
~ Current Profitability (earned / invested)
~ Risk (lower)
Assets … Shares
~ estimated future cash flows … current profitabiltity, future prospects …
~ expected rate of returm lower if the reputation in the capital markets is higher
risk if lower will lead to lower expected rate of return
LT Growth of economy is going to be 4.5%
…
TVM … Dividiend of last year … and a perpetual growth rate of 4.5%