PUBLIC VERSION

ATTACHMENT A
 PUBLIC VERSION

ATTACHMENT A-1
 PUBLIC VERSION

Implied Change in Import and US price Associated with Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Import to US Volume Change
(Revised to Extend Analysis Back to 2017)

1. Trade Data from Staff Report 2017 2018 2019

US Volume (ST) [ ] USQ, US shipment quantities, Prehearing report Table IV-7
Subject Import Volume [ ] SIMPQ, subject imports US shipment quantities, PR Table IV-7

US AUV (USD/ST) [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table IV-7

Subject Import AUV [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table IV-7

2. Calculate % Change in Relative Volume

Import to US Relative Volume
2017-2018 2018-2019
Year 1 actual relative volume [ ] a1 = SIMPQ / USQ (Year 1)
Year 2 actual relative volume [ ] a2 = SIMPQ / USQ (Year 2)
Percentage change in relative volume [ ] A = numerator of Elasticity of Substitution (EOS) formula = (a2
]a1)/a1

3. Calculate % Change in Relative Price for Elasticity of Substitution

Elasticity of substitution from Staff Report 5.0 5.0 C = Midpoint of Staff Estimate = (percent change in relative volume (A) / percent change in relative price (B))

Implied percent change in relative price [ ] B = denominator of EOS formula, or A/C‐‐Determinded by EOS formula, and "A" and "C" inputs.

4. Calculate US Price Implied by 2018 and 2019 import prices and Implied % Change in Relative Price
US to import relative price
Year 1 actual relative prices [ ] D = USAUV / SUIMPAUV (Year 1)
Percent change [ ] B = EOS
Year 2 Relative price implied by Change in Relative Volume and EOS [ ] E=D+B*D

Year 2 Actual subject import price [ ] F

Year 2 US price implied by relative share loss due to subject imports [ ] G = F*E

5. Calculate Effects on US Price

Actual Price in Year 1 [ ] H
Actual Price in Year 2 [ ] I
Actual decrease in US producers' AUV [ ] J - H-I

Implied US Price in Year 2 associated with relative volume lost to subject imports [ ] G
Price decrease or (increase) due to relative volume loss to subject imports [ ] K = H-G
% of decrease in US producers' AUV attributable to subject imports [ ] L = K/J
Residual price decrease due to demand and other non-import factors [ ] M = 1-L

Note: "Year 1" is 2017 in the 2017-2018 comparison, and 2018 in the 2018-2019 comparison. "Year 2" is 2018 in the 2017-2018 comparison, and 2019 in the 2018-2019 comparison.

Sources: Mosaic Prehearing Brief, Exhibit 2 (Capital Trade Analysis), Attachment 11. We note that Petitioners appeared to have entered the wrong AUVs for 2019: their exhibit reports a subject import
shipment AUV of [ ], but Tables IV-7 and C-1 report [ ], and it reports a domestic industry AUV of [ ] while Tables IV-7 and C-1 report [ ].
 PUBLIC VERSION

Implied Change in Import and US price Associated with Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Import to US Volume Change‐‐MAP
(Revised to Include Alternate Elasticity of Substitution)

1. Trade Data from Staff Report 2018 2019

US Volume (ST) [ ] USQ, US shipment quantities of MAP, Prehearing report Table V-4
Subject Import Volume [ ] SIMPQ, subject imports US shipment quantities of MAP, PR Table V-4

US AUV (USD/ST) [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table V-4

Subject Import AUV [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table V-4

2. Calculate % Change in Relative Volume

Import to US Relative Volume

2018 actual relative volume [ ] a1 = SIMPQ / USQ (2018)

2019 actual relative volume [ ] a2 = SIMPQ / USQ (2019)
Percentage change in relative volume [ ] A = numerator of Elasticity of Substitution (EOS) formula = (a2
]a1)/a1

3. Calculate % Change in Relative Price for Elasticity of Substitution

Staff ITC White
Report Paper
Elasticity of substitution from Staff Report / ITC White Paper 5.0 2.09 C = (percent change in relative volume (A) / percent change in relative price (B))

Implied percent change in relative price [ ] B = denominator of EOS formula, or A/C‐‐Determinded by EOS formula, and "A" and "C" inputs.

4. Calculate US Price Implied by 2019 import price and Implied % Change in Relative Price
US to import relative price
2018 actual relative prices [ ] D = USAUV / SUIMPAUV (2018)
Percent change [ ] B = EOS
2019 relative price implied by Change in Relative Volume and EOS [ ] E=D+B*D

2019 Actual subject import price [ ] F

2019 US price implied by relative share loss due to subject imports [ ] G = F*E

5. Calculate Effects on US Price

Actual Price in 2018 [ ] H

Actual Price in 2019 [ ] I
Actual decrease in US producers' AUV [ ] J - H-I

Implied US Price in 2019 associated with relative volume lost to subject imports [ ] G
Price decrease or (increase) due to relative volume loss to subject imports [ ] K = H-G
% of decrease in US producers' AUV attributable to subject imports [ ] L = K/J
Residual price decrease due to demand and other non-import factors [ ] M = 1-L

Sources: Mosaic Prehearing Brief, Exhibit 2 (Capital Trade Analysis), Attachment 11; Saad Ahmad and David Riker, “Updated Estimates of the Trade Elasticity of Substitution,” Economics Working Paper Series,
Working Paper 2020–05-A, U S. International Trade Commission Office of Economics, May 2020.
 PUBLIC VERSION

Implied Change in Import and US price Associated with Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Import to US Volume Change‐‐DAP
(Revised to Include Alternate Elasticity of Substitution)

1. Trade Data from Staff Report 2018 2019

US Volume (ST) [ ] USQ, US shipment quantities of DAP, Prehearing report Table V-5
Subject Import Volume [ ] SIMPQ, subject imports US shipment quantities of DAP, PR Table V-5

US AUV (USD/ST) [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table V-5

Subject Import AUV [ ] AUV of US shipments from Table V-5

2. Calculate % Change in Relative Volume

Import to US Relative Volume

2018 actual relative volume [ ] a1 = SIMPQ / USQ (2018)

2019 actual relative volume [ ] a2 = SIMPQ / USQ (2019)
Percentage change in relative volume [ ] A = numerator of Elasticity of Substitution (EOS) formula = (a2
]a1)/a1

3. Calculate % Change in Relative Price for Elasticity of Substitution

Staff ITC White
Report Paper
Elasticity of substitution from Staff Report / ITC White Paper 5.0 2.09 C = (percent change in relative volume (A) / percent change in relative price (B))

Implied percent change in relative price [ ] B = denominator of EOS formula, or A/C‐‐Determinded by EOS formula, and "A" and "C" inputs.

4. Calculate US Price Implied by 2019 import price and Implied % Change in Relative Price
US to import relative price
2018 actual relative prices [ ] D = USAUV / SUIMPAUV (2018)
Percent change [ ] B = EOS
2019 relative price implied by Change in Relative Volume and EOS [ ] E=D+B*D

2019 Actual subject import price [ ] F

2019 US price implied by relative share loss due to subject imports [ ] G = F*E

5. Calculate Effects on US Price

Actual Price in 2018 [ ] H

Actual Price in 2019 [ ] I
Actual decrease in US producers' AUV [ ] J - H-I

Implied US Price in 2019 associated with relative volume lost to subject imports [ ] G
Price decrease or (increase) due to relative volume loss to subject imports [ ] K = H-G
% of decrease in US producers' AUV attributable to subject imports [ ] L = K/J
Residual price decrease due to demand and other non-import factors [ ] M = 1-L

Sources: Mosaic Prehearing Brief, Exhibit 2 (Capital Trade Analysis), Attachment 11; Saad Ahmad and David Riker, “Updated Estimates of the Trade Elasticity of Substitution,” Economics Working Paper Series,
Working Paper 2020–05-A, U S. International Trade Commission Office of Economics, May 2020.
 PUBLIC VERSION

ATTACHMENT A-2
 PUBLIC VERSION

U.S. Importers' Questionnaire

Phosphate Fertilizers From Morocco And Russia

Table II-5a
Imports
MOROCCO

Aggregation

Quantity (in short tons ), Value (in $1,000 )

Calendar year January - September
Item
2017 2018 2019 2019 2020
Beginning-of-period inventories (quantity) [ ]

Imports:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]
U.S. shipments:
Commercial shipments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Internal consumption / including product

shipped to your firm's retail establishments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Transfers to related firms:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Export shipments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

End-of-period inventories (quantity) [ ]

Total U.S. Shipments (Calculated )

Quantity [ ]
Value [ ]
 PUBLIC VERSION

U.S. Importers' Questionnaire

Phosphate Fertilizers From Morocco And Russia

Table II-6a
Imports
RUSSIA

Aggregation

Quantity (in short tons ), Value (in $1,000 )

Calendar year January - September
Item
2017 2018 2019 2019 2020
Beginning-of-period inventories (quantity) [ ]

Imports:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]
U.S. shipments:
Commercial shipments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Internal consumption / including product

shipped to your firm's retail establishments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Transfers to related firms:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

Export shipments:

Quantity [ ]

Value [ ]

End-of-period inventories (quantity) [ ]

Total U.S. Shipments (Calculated )

Quantity [ ]
Value [ ]
 PUBLIC VERSION

ATTACHMENT A-3
 PUBLIC VERSION

Comparison of Mosaic's U.S. Shipment Volume to Export Volume

(Quantity in short tons)

2017 2018 2019 Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020
U.S. Shipments [ ]
Export Shipments [ ]
Total Shipments [ ]
As a % of Total Shipment Quantity
U.S. Shipments [ ]
Export Shipments [ ]
Total Shipments [ ]
(Value in $1,000)
2017 2018 2019 Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020
U.S. Shipments [ ]
Export Shipments [ ]
Total Shipments [ ]
As a % of Total Shipment Value
U.S. Shipments [ ]
Export Shipments [ ]
Total Shipments [ ]

Source: Mosaic U.S. Producers' Questionnaire at II-7.

 PUBLIC VERSION

ATTACHMENT A-4
 PUBLIC VERSION

Monthly MAP and DAP Pricing Data from USITC Questionnaires

(Quantity in ST, Value in $, AUV in $ per ST)

Product 1 (MAP) Product 2 (DAP)

Qty Val AUV Qty Val AUV
January [ ]
February [ ]
March [ ]
April [ ]
May [ ]
June [ ]
2017
July [ ]
August [ ]
September [ ]
October [ ]
November [ ]
December [ ]
January [ ]
February [ ]
March [ ]
April [ ]
May [ ]
June [ ]
2018
July [ ]
August [ ]
September [ ]
October [ ]
November [ ]
December [ ]
January [ ]
February [ ]
March [ ]
April [ ]
May [ ]
June [ ]
2019
July [ ]
August [ ]
September [ ]
October [ ]
November [ ]
December [ ]
January [ ]
February [ ]
March [ ]
April [ ]
2020 May [ ]
June [ ]
July [ ]
August [ ]
September [ ]

December 2019-June 2020 [ ]

Source: Prehearing Report at Tables V-4 and V-5.