LETTER FROM HEADQUARTERS
Chemtrails, HAARP, and Dealing with Misinformation
A
couple of times a month, on average, I end up in
a phone conversation with someone calling the
AMS to talk about “chemtrails” and/or HAARP.
Both of these have become favorites among con-
spiracy theorists across the country, and since both
relate to atmospheric phenomena, I end up getting
calls from citizens hoping to learn about the Society’s
position on them.
If you are not familiar with either of these, I
encourage you to do a little research on the web
to learn more. Wikipedia does a nice job at a brief
description of each with credible information, but
you will enjoy reading—and in some cases probably
be horrified by—what you find in a more general
search online. In the briefest form, “chemtrails” are
the result of the supposedly deliberate attempts
by the government to spray the population with
chemicals from high-flying aircraft, while HAARP is
a legitimate experiment in the Arctic studying the
ionosphere using antennas that look like they belong
in a science fiction movie.
I typically spend a fair amount of time with these
callers explaining that the reason they might see con-
trails in regular patterns in the sky is because commer-
cial aircraft tend to follow well-defined corridors, and
that whether or not the contrails persist or evaporate
quickly depends completely on the atmospheric condi-
tions at flight level. In more than half the cases, after I
try to reassure the caller that the government is not
carrying out an organized plan to poison them, the
conversation switches to HAARP as what the caller
feels is an undeniable example of the government
controlling the weather. After explaining that HAARP
was not responsible for, say, the westward turn of
Superstorm Sandy (or any of a few dozen other ex-
amples of anomalous weather), the caller either runs
out of steam or I run out of ways to explain things and
the call concludes. In a dishearteningly large number
of cases, the caller ends with a comment along the
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
lines of: “It is too bad you are not allowed to tell the
truth about these things.”
It is easy to simply dismiss these folks as delusional,
but I look at them as providing an extreme view of
a tendency that some of us have to believe the bad
about people or organizations over the good. It
is this tendency that makes untrue rumors spread
so quickly and be so hard to correct. In the age
of Internet blogs, Twitter, etc., an untruth can gain
traction remarkably quickly. Add in our tendency
to preferentially believe information that conforms
to our existing notions—known as confirmation
bias—and it is easy to see how a website can create
content that feeds the rumor or conspiracy theory
to a fever pitch.
We might think we are immune to these harmful
biases, but few of us really are. I see examples of this
even in my dealings with AMS members over Society
matters. There are many who believe, for example,
that AMS meetings represent huge net income
sources for the Society, despite being able to see the
contrary in the audited financial statements published
in BAMS each year1, as well as in a comprehensive
informational BAMS article on meeting finances in
2007 (Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 408–417). Similarly, there
are those who believe the Society wants to revoke the
certifications of any broadcast meteorologist whose
position on climate change does not match that of
the AMS Statement, despite nothing but unfounded
rumors feeding that notion.
I wish I could offer a suggestion for how we might
collectively improve this situation, but there is plenty
of research that suggests that the more vigorously one
1
The meetings portion of the budget for the past couple of
years has actually done better than average, with net revenue
of about 10% or so, but historically it is close to break-even
on average and will probably not reach break-even in 2013.
NOVEMBER 2013 | 1751
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 tries to fight a conspiracy theory, the more traction
it gains with the believers. So it is actually very hard
to effectively counter a conspiracy theory like chem-
trails, or the negative perception of an organization
generated by an unfounded rumor, even when there
are ample facts available to do so. All we can do, re-
ally, is move forward with integrity and transparency,
presenting the factual information whenever we have
the opportunity and reinforcing the positive message
where possible. It is for that reason that I always take
these calls on chemtrails or HAARP, and why I do my
best to provide as much factual information on each
POLICY PROGRAM NOTES
Weather, Water, and Climate:
A Strong Positive Case for Support
T
he science–policy interface comes in two basic
flavors: science for policy (i.e., how science and
services can improve societal decision-making)
and policy for science (i.e., how decision-making on
science can help us provide information and services
to society).
The AMS community has a long history of engag-
ing in science for policy. The information and services
we provide contribute directly to society’s well-being,
and we want to help people realize the potential ben-
efits that knowledge and understanding of the Earth
system makes possible.
Increasingly, members of our community also
show an interest in policy for science. This increas-
ing attention reflects both concern over ongoing
cuts in federal support and growing recognition that
potential advances in our science and services offer
tremendous new opportunities to the broader society.
Done thoughtfully, efforts to improve policy for
science have the potential to increase support and
resources for our science and services. This would
enable our community to provide the information
and services the nation (and the world) needs to
manage risks and realize opportunities associated
with weather, water, and climate.
Here are three suggestions for those of you inter-
ested in advancing policy for science to consider as
you develop your engagement strategies.
First, focus on creating a strong positive case for
support. This sounds obvious, but sometimes mem-
1752 | NOVEMBER 2013
as I can. It is why I am also very happy to engage with
any member who has questions on AMS business
or who has concerns about Society activities. If you
have any questions or concerns at all, I hope you will
not hesitate to reach out to me at 617-226-3901 (my
direct line) or kseitter@ametsoc.org.
Keith L. Seitter
Executive Director
bers of our community emphasize a negative case
against someone else’s science. Over the past year,
I’ve heard members of our community call to redirect
funding from climate to weather, for observations
instead of modeling, for science instead of services,
and for applied research instead of basic (i.e., interest-
driven) research.
These are weak and counterproductive arguments
for support. Have you ever applied for a job by trash-
ing the other applicants? Would you consider hiring
someone who did? Has your company won a contract
by denigrating the competition? As a student, did you
choose your program because they convinced you the
other schools were subpar?
No chance. If the strongest case for something is
that it is the best among a poor set of alternatives, then
the case for support is exceedingly weak. To the extent
that such a negative argument is effective, it means that
resources would be best applied to none of the options
and instead redirected in an entirely new direction.
In contrast, the case for Earth observations, sci-
ence, and services, particularly relating to weather,
water, and climate, is extremely strong. The expan-
sion in knowledge and capabilities that result enable
society to manage risks and realize opportunities
associated with the Earth system.
Second, focus on pursuing a strong positive out-
come. Again, this sounds obvious, but members of our
community sometimes seem to call for, or validate,
cuts in federal investments for science and services.
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We sometimes hear that “We will have to do more
with less” and that “If we don’t help decide where
the cuts will occur, then someone will decide for us.”
It’s not our job to cut the federal budget. It’s not our
job to set priorities for federal spending. It’s not our
job to make those whose job it is to do those things
feel better about poor choices they make.
Our job, in my view, is to help make sure that poli-
cy makers understand the implications of the choices
that they make. Cutting funding for science and
services relating to weather, water, and climate will
harm society’s disaster preparedness and response
capabilities. Increases in funding for our science
and services will almost certainly create new busi-
ness opportunities and enable social and economic
advancements that could not otherwise occur. That
is a strong positive case for a strong positive outcome.
Finally, when engaging the policy process it is
important to combine humility with confidence.
Policy and politics are complex and challenging.
Relationships are critical and incentives operate on
numerous scales and cut many ways. While political
discussions don’t always seem to make sense, they
can be very rational in ways nonexperts don’t real-
ize if they don’t understand the incentives elected
leaders face. Given this complexity, even seasoned
veterans of the policy process recognize the need to
be humble in engaging with decision makers. But
that’s only half the story. Members of our commu-
nity also possess expertise and skill that the policy
process desperately needs. We have insights and
understanding relating to major societal challenges,
and our technical knowledge and training provide
us with analytical capabilities and problem-solving
skills that are extremely rare. When we bring these
to the policy process, particularly when we recognize
the limits of our expertise, we can help bring about
major improvements in policy.
As a result, thoughtful engagement with the policy
process has the potential to help secure the support
and resources that our community needs to make
critical information and services available. More
importantly, constructive interactions with the policy
process can help ground societal decisions in the best
available knowledge and understanding. That will
help the nation, and the world, avoid risks and realize
opportunities related to the Earth system.
—Paul Higgins, AMS Policy Program Director

THE FATHER JAMES B. MACELWANE ANNUAL AWARD

Kyle K. Ahern has been awarded the AMS Father James B. Macelwane
Award. Mr. Ahern graduated with a B.S. in meteorology from The Florida
State University in May 2013 and will continue at Florida State to pursue
graduate studies. The paper was written in his senior year under the di-
rection of Dr. Henry Fuelberg. His paper is titled “Analysis of Convective
Transport of Biomass Burning Emissions in Southeast Asia.” Mr. Ahern
examined the deep convective events and subsequent movement of biomass
burn emissions as part of an Honors in the Major project at Florida State.
His graduate research will focus on tropical meteorology and synoptic-scale
phenomena.
The Father James B. Macelwane Annual Award was established by the American Meteorological
Society to honor the late Rev. James B. Macelwane, S.J., a world-renowned authority of seismol-
ogy, who was a geophysicist and Dean of the Institute of Technology, Saint Louis University, until
his death in 1956. The award carries a $1,000 stipend, supported by member donations to the
AMS 21st Century Campaign. The purpose of this award is to stimulate interest in meteorology
among college students through the encouragement of original student papers concerned with
some phase of the atmospheric sciences. The student must be enrolled as an undergraduate at
the time the paper is written, and no more than two students from any one institution may enter
papers in any one contest.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NOVEMBER 2013 | 1753

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 LIVING ON THE REAL WORLD

[Editor’s Note: The following post is excerpted from William Hooke’s blog, Living on the Real World (www.livingon-
therealworld.org/). Hooke is the former director of the AMS Policy Program and currently a senior policy fellow.]

At the Annual Partners Meeting enthusiastically engaged throughout. Dr. Uccellini

(Originally posted on 8 August 2013)
Each year the National Weather Service and myriad
partners meet for a face-to-face, high-level look at
their ongoing collaboration. The dialogue is always
wide-ranging and covers a number of complex issues.
Each cooperative effort brings an extended history,
poses present challenges, and faces a problematic
future. The discussion exposes no more than the tip
of an iceberg of projects and works in progress. An
ocean of acronyms underlies the entire conversation.
Hard to summarize! But here are a few vignettes
from this year’s meeting, which took place [August
5th and 6th]:
First, this year’s meeting was extended to a day
and a half, providing a bit more time for deeper
information exchange. Second, Louis Uccellini,
the newly-minted NWS director, was present and
comes to the job from many years’ tenure as direc-
tor of the NWS National Centers for Environmental
Prediction, and that heritage shows. The segments of
the discussion that he led personally dwelt on budget
matters, efforts to improve the numerical weather
prediction and the computing infrastructure that
underpins so much of the weather industry’s prod-
ucts and services.
Here the news is good. The congressional Sandy
supplemental includes funding that over the next two
years should greatly increase NWS computing power
and bring corresponding model improvements in its
train. Both House and Senate marks for the 2014 NWS
budget are in line with, and even (slightly) exceed the
Presidential request. Of course, our meteorological
community knows forecasts, and the current forecast
is that same deeply polarized Congress will find it dif-

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ficult to pass an actual budget, leaving NWS to struggle munity resilience in the face of increasing vulner-
with a more problematic continuing resolution. ability to extreme weather and water events”; it’s about
Dr. Uccellini’s personal remarks on service de- community-level decisions and actions and not just
livery at the local level to specific people in harm’s an internal NWS effort. They are realistic about the
way were less extended, but that doesn’t mean the size of the job.
topic didn’t receive full attention from others. In It’s also clear that they’re struggling a bit to make
fact, in various forms, this made up the bulk of the inroads; the task isn’t easy!
agenda. Weather Service leaders reported on ef- In the meantime, to quote John Lennon: “life
forts to simplify and clarify the language of hazards is what happens to you while you’re busy making
watches and warnings. They updated the status of other plans.” The world is moving forward. The
marine and tropical services, with emphasis on new lessons from Joplin, Hurricane Sandy, Moore, and
products for storm surge (a major need evident from recent drought, wildfire, and flooding events have
recent events such as Hurricanes Irene and Sandy). been so stark that communities are waking up to
They explored ways to work more collaboratively on the risks they face. For example, the Rockefeller
the task of technology transfer (R2O); and did much Foundation currently has a 100 Resilient Cit-
more. Private-sector representatives reported on ies Centennial Challenge on offer. Judith Rodin,
wireless emergency alerts, those (90-character) mes- Rockefeller Foundation president, states that this
sages that pop-up unrequested on our smartphones. $100M initiative will offer each winning city three
(Turns out, if you haven’t noticed, that the messages forms of support:
with severe weather content by far outnumber alerts
of any other stripe.) One highlight of the first day • Membership in the newly formed 100 Resilient
was a thoughtful talk by Lans Rothfusz of NOAA’s Cities Network, which will provide support to
Severe Storms Research Laboratory; he undertook member cities and share new knowledge and re-
the massive and complex task of reframing the silience best practices.
warning process for environmental threats from • Support to hire a Chief Resilience Officer (CRO), a
first principles. new innovation. The CRO will oversee the devel-
NOAA/NWS Weather-Ready Nation efforts took opment of a resilience strategy for the city.
up a significant block of time. Two points were clear. • Support to create a resilience plan, along with tools
First, the National Weather Service leadership sees and resources for implementation.
social science as a big driver. This recognition is
most welcome, but it’s important to be mindful of The good news is that our country of thousands
and to apply all of what social science has to teach. of currently-vulnerable communities is cheering
The various disciplines have a
lot to say about how to craft risk
communications to fullest effect.
All well and good. But the social Built on our commitment to integrity, customers,
sciences also teach that major and employees, SGT provides high-value technical
community efforts . . . with long- solutions in the areas of
term implications for all com- Environmental satellite and in situ weather


data processing
munity members (and by this
Satellite and ground system design, engineering,

measure, building disaster resil- development, and operations
ience would certainly qualify) . . Scientific applications and decision


. lead to the best outcomes when support tool development and

they draw in all community maintenance
members collaboratively as equal En gi neer ing: Practical, intuitive
  

partners from the beginning, and application of emerging science and

throughout the process. STINGER technical insight

NWS leaders appear to rec- G HAFFARIAN

TECHNOLOGIES
ognize this as well. To quote
www.sgt-inc.com
them: NOAA’s Weather-Ready
Nation is “about building com-

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NOVEMBER 2013 | 1755

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 the NWS and its partners on, wishing us every suc-
cess. On the other hand, the emergence of this and
similar initiatives might imply that we will soon find
ourselves not leading the charge for a weather-ready
nation, but working hard to keep up.
Our community ought to aspire to a more active
leadership role. On its websites, the NWS invites us
to do precisely that . . . to be, variously, “forces of
nature” or “Weather-Ready Nation ambassadors.”
As individuals and institutions, we would do well to
consider how we each might join them in that cause,
if not by such a name, by some other structured and
sustained means. We’d also do well to keep in mind
that resilience should begin with good land use and
building codes and similar measures. It’s not about
managing emergency response of greater scope and
complexity. It’s instead about reducing the need
for such emergency response in the first place. Our
forecasts and warnings can best help communities
deal with small residual risks remaining after the
main vulnerabilities have been mitigated in other
ways.

ABOUT OUR MEMBERS

John T. Madura received the 2013 NASA Distinguished American Chemical Society (ACS), is among 16
Service Medal. This is NASA’s highest form of recogni- individuals named by President Obama to receive
tion that is awarded to a government employee who, by the nation’s highest civilian honor—the Presidential
distinguished service, ability, or vision has personally Medal of Freedom.
contributed to NASA’s advancement of U.S. interests. Established 50 years ago by President John F.
The individual’s achievement or contribution must Kennedy, the award recognizes meritorious contri-
demonstrate a level of excellence that has made a pro- butions to the security or national interests of the
found or indelible impact on NASA mission success, and United States, to world peace, or to cultural or other
therefore the contribution is so extraordinary that other significant public or private endeavors.
forms of recognition by NASA would be inadequate. Molina, a Mexican immigrant, has been an active
Madura is chief of the Liaison Office at the John ACS member, attending ACS national meetings and
F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), where he has been expositions, and organizing and participating in sym-
manager of the KSC Weather Office for 20 years. posia and diversity activities. Molina’s ACS honors
He is a Fellow of AMS and has led a wide variety of include the 1998 ACS Award for Creative Advances
programs to improve weather support capabilities in Environmental Science and Technology.
in support of spaceflight operations for NASA, the Molina is with the University of California, San Di-
Department of Defense, other government agencies, ego, and is also director of the Mario Molina Center for
and the commercial sector. Energy and Environment. He is a member of the Presi-
He was a founder of the award-winning Applied dent’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
Meteorology Unit and is the government lead for the He shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry with
Lightning Advisory Panel that recommends lightning F. Sherwood Rowland and Paul J. Crutzen for their
launch-commit criteria used by NASA, the Depart- work on ozone depletion. In the 1970s and 1980s,
ment of Defense, and the Federal Aviation Adminis- Molina, Rowland, and Crutzen established that
tration to reduce the risk of triggered lightning to all substances called CFCs in aerosol spray cans and
launches, public or private, under U.S. jurisdiction. other products could destroy the ozone layer. After
Before joining NASA, he was commander of the 45th a “hole” in that layer over Antarctica was discovered
Weather Squadron, from which in 1985, scientists established
he retired with the rank of colo- that it was indeed caused by
nel after a distinguished military IN MEMORIAM CFCs, and worked together with
career providing weather sup- WAYNE DECKER policymakers and industry rep-
port to U.S. forces worldwide. 1922–2013 resentatives around the world to
THOMAS MALONE solve the problem.
1917–2013
Molina was awarded the Pres-
JONATHAN P. RACY
Nobel laureate Mario J. Molina, idential Medal of Freedom at a
1970–2013
Ph.D., a 42-year member of the ceremony this summer.

1756 | NOVEMBER 2013

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 Save Advancing Weather and
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Highlights from The Royal Meteorological
Society Publications
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Key article:
On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar
Ed Hawkins, Phil. D. Jones
Special Issues:
• The Megha-Tropiques mission: day 1 algorithms
• Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE)
Read more online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj

Atmospheric Science Letters

Key article:
Can marine cloud brightening reduce coral bleaching?
John Latham, Joan Kleypas, Rachel Hauser, Ben Parkes, Alan Gadian
• Cloud brightening to cool sea surface temperatures can protect
threatened coral reefs

Read more online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/asl

International Journal of Climatology

Key article:
Atmospheric impacts of an Arctic sea ice minimum as seen
in the Community Atmosphere Model
Elizabeth N. Cassano, John J. Cassano, Matthew E. Higgins,
Mark C. Serreze
• Explores atmospheric impact of declining Arctic sea ice
Read more online at wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc

Increased Impact Factors for The Royal Meteorological Society Publications

• WIRES Climate Change Impact Factor 3.462
Ranked 4th in the Environmental Studies category
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• Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorology Society Impact Factor 3.327

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