Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.....................................................................................................................1
DEDICATION......................................................................................................................................2
DECLARATION...................................................................................................................................3
1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................4
1.2 BACKGROUND.............................................................................................................................4
1.3 LOCATION AND STUDY AREA.................................................................................................5
2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM..................................................................................................6
3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY....................................................................................................6
4 PROBLEMS AND LIMITATIONS...................................................................................................7
5 DEFINATIONS OF TERMS..............................................................................................................7
6 AIM AND OBJECTIVES..................................................................................................................7
6.1 AIM.................................................................................................................................................7
6.2 OBJECTIVES.................................................................................................................................7
7 METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................................................8
8 LITERATURE REVIEW...................................................................................................................8
9. DATA PRESENTATION.................................................................................................................9
9.1 Extent of COVID-19 in Zambia......................................................................................................9
9.1 REGIONAL COMPARISON OF THE COVID-19 SITUATION.................................................13
9.2 Zambia’s Regional Standing and Impact.......................................................................................13
10 DATA ENTERPRETATION.........................................................................................................18
8 CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................19
9 RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................................................................20
REFFERENCES..................................................................................................................................21

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my gratitude to my teachers and fellow students for the
encouragement which was useful in the completion of this project. I would like to express my
special gratitude and thanks to the ministry of health making available the data to do this
project.

1
 DEDICATION
This project report is dedicated to all the people who are committed and determined to end
the scourge of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia. It is also dedicated to all my
teachers and fellow pupils of Makeni Islamic school who are committed to information
sharing as a tool to end the disease. A special thanks goes to the Government of the Republic
of Zambia for putting information and data in the public domain to keep the public informed.

2
 DECLARATION
I Mary Izala Ngoyi declare that this project report is an authentic presentation of a research
that was carried out in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the acquisition of the School
Certificate of Education. All the information in this report was carried out by me with the
help of my project supervisor, Mr Madhliso and has not been submitted to any other institute
or organisation

Mary Izala Ngoyi

17th August, 2020

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1 INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute

respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was first identified in December 2019
in Wuhan, China and has resulted in an on-going pandemic. The World Health Organization
(WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a public health emergency of international concern
(PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and a pandemic on 11 March 2020. The first confirmed case
was on 17 November 2019 in Wuhan. As of 18th July 2020, globally confirmed cases stood at
about 14 million with over 600,000 deaths and about 8.5 million recoveries. This is therefore
a health threat of a magnitude not to be ignored. The pandemic has had a momentous impact
on the social-economic aspect of everyday life which has resulted in the disruption of the
running of the global economy as a whole and those of particular regions and countries. This
has had backwash effects on the lives of organizations and individuals all over the world.

What has made COVID-19 such a significant threat is its ease of spread. The virus is
primarily spread between people during close contact, most often via small droplets produced
by coughing, sneezing and talking. The droplets usually fall to the ground or onto surfaces
rather than travelling through air over long distances. Common symptoms include fever,
cough, fatigue, shortness of breath and loss of smell and taste. While the majority of cases
result in mild symptoms, some progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

There are currently no vaccines nor specific antiviral treatments for COVID-19. There are
however a number of experimental drugs that have shown great promise. The most successful
of these is Remdesivir which has been proved to accelerate recovery on patients. Many more
vaccines and drugs are being developed. At the moment prevention remains the best tool
against COVID-19. Management involves the treatment of symptoms, supportive care,
isolation and experimental measures. Local transmission of the disease has occurred in most
countries across all six WHO region, including Zambia

1.2 BACKGROUND

Upon the World Health Organization’s declaration of covid-19 as a pandemic there was fear
of the global spread of the disease, consequently Zambia begun to implement measures to
handle the disease and prevent it spreading out of control. As of 17 March, the government
shut all educational institutions and put in place some restrictions on foreign travel. Zambia

4
reported its first 2 cases of COVID-19 in Lusaka on 18 March, 2020. The patients were a
couple that had travelled to France on holiday. A third case was recorded on 22 March. The
patient was a man who had travelled to Pakistan. On 25 March, President Edgar
Lungu confirmed a total of 12 cases during a live national address. By March, 36 persons
tested positive, the highest at that time.

Zambia recorded its first death on 2 April. In total during the month of April, 70 persons
tested positive and three died. The number of confirmed cases since the start of the outbreak
reached 106. The number of active cases at the end of the month was 48. By 5 May, the
number of COVID-19 deaths had risen to four.

As of 22 May, Zambia recorded 920 COVID-19 positive cases against 20,011 people
screened and tested. The president Edgar Lungu confirmed that the country had recorded 7
deaths and a total number of 336 recoveries.

By 27 May, Zambia had recorded a total of 137 new cases in the previous five days, bringing
the total to 1,057. Secretary to the Cabinet in Zambia, Dr. Simon Miti, confirmed that the
country had recorded 443 recoveries over the previous five days bringing the total to 779.
The recorded deaths remained at 7 and the active cases were at 271.

On June 23, the country approved an eight billion kwacha (US$439 million) economic
stimulus package through a COVID-19 bond.

In June there were 437 confirmed cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases since
the start of the outbreak to 1594. The death toll rose to 24. By the end of the month there
were 241 active cases, a decrease by 11% from the end of May. As of 29th July 2020, the total
number of case stood at 5,249 with 146 deaths and 3,285 recoveries leaving a total of 1,818
active cases.

Clearly since the first case was confirmed the pandemic has been on the rise cumulatively
hence the need to study the impact it has on the social-economic dynamics of the Country.

1.3 LOCATION AND STUDY AREA

The study was based on Zambia and conducted in Zambia. Zambia is a land locked country
located in South Central Africa on 13.1339° S, 27.8493° E. The study area was chosen due to
ease of availability of data and due to financial consideration. The country also has a

5
significant COVID-19 presence which makes it relevant to the nature of the enquiry of the
study.

2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Despite all measures put by the government and health authorities, the country continues to
record higher numbers of COVID -19 cases and death. Since the shutting down of
areas/institutions that were considered as high risk for potential spread as well as the
issuance of health guidelines the number of active cases had risen to 1,818 by 29th July,
2020 from just 271 in May. The government shut all learning institutions as well as all non-
essential services on 17th March, 2020 but this has not had the desired result. This study will
provide an insight into this discrepancy.

3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The goal of this study is to study the impact of the covid-19 pandemic of the social-economic
situation of the country. The findings of the study will provide an insight into the factors that
have so far eluded the authorities and rendered the current efforts to curb the spread of the

6
virus ineffective. This will provide better information for effective health guidelines and
better reopening of the economy.

4 PROBLEMS AND LIMITATIONS

The very subject of the study was the biggest limitation to the study. Social distancing laws
made it difficult to collect data in the field. That is why the study relied solely on secondary
data. Some of the parameters that would have been better analysed through primary data
could not be studied with secondary data as the secondary data as the scope of the secondary
data might have differed with the scope of this study. Another important limitation was time.

5 DEFINATIONS OF TERMS
Social distancing; keeping a safe space between yourself and other people who are not from
your household

New Normal; state to which an economy, society settles following a crisis, when this differs
from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis

Quarantine; is a restriction on the movement of people and goods which is intended to

prevent the spread of disease or pest

Self-isolation; is when you stay at home because you might have corona virus

Testing; evaluating a system or its components with the intent to find whether it satisfies the
specified requirements or not

Screening; presumptive identification of unrecognised disease in an apparent healthy

asymptomic population by means of test, examinations or other procedure that can be applied
rapidly and easily to the target population

6 AIM AND OBJECTIVES

6.1 AIM

To study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia’s socio-economic dynamics and
the effectiveness of the government’s response to the pandemic.

6.2 OBJECTIVES

 To find out the extent of the Covid-19 in Zambia

7
  To find out the effectiveness of Government measures on small businesses

 To find out people’s co-operation to the measures by the Government

 To find out Zambia’s contribution to the regional effort to combat the disease

 To find out how much the disease has impacted Zambia in comparison to the rest of
the world

7 METHODOLOGY
This study relied on secondary data from the Ministry of Health through its National Public
Health Institutes’ situational report. The study relied heavily on daily updates and reports
from the Ministry of Health’s information sources.

8 LITERATURE REVIEW
Recent research has shown a profound effect of COVID-19 in many social and economic
aspects of daily life. The impacts differ from country to country but in most cases, they have
been disruptive. There has also been to a limited extent been some positive effects.

COVID-19 has been projected to worsen gender disparities in the work place at the expense
of women. According to Titan Alon et al “Unlike regular recessions, the COVID-19
downturn is likely to reduce employment in sectors where women make up a large fraction of
the workforce. Perhaps even more importantly, women will be affected by the increase in
child care needs that stems from closings of schools and day care centres. This impact is the
most severe for single mothers, who outnumber single fathers by a large margin.”

COVID-19 has also had a disruptive on the global economy, slowing economic growth for
countries with healthy economies and further shrinking the economies of poor countries.
Global growth is projected at –4.9 % in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020
World Economic Outlook forecast (IMF, 2020). Most of this economic meltdown has
attributed to the pandemic. The IMF World Economic Outlook Forecast further reports,” The
COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than
anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In
2021 global growth is projected at 5.4%. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½
percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse
impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperilling the significant progress

8
made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.” For an economically
struggling country like Zimbabwe, the effect is likely to be much worse. For Zimbabwe,
whose economy contracted by an estimated 6.5% in 2019, continued contraction in the
magnitude highlighted above, or more given the fragility of the economy, would be
disastrous (UNDP, 2020).

The pandemic has also disrupted the delivery of education in many countries. Chrine C.
Hapompwe, Crispin Kukano & Jacqueline Siwale did a study of the effect of COVID-19 in
Zambia and found that, “This study has demonstrated the eminent poor academic
performance forthcoming from this year’s grades 7, 9 and 12 classes arising from the
disruption of the learning cycle due to public health measures to curb the further spread of
COVID-19. There is also clarity that the impact would have been effectively minimised had
government opted for a variety, divers,”

9. DATA PRESENTATION
9.1 Extent of COVID-19 in Zambia

Table 1: Regional Distribution of Cases

DISTRICT CASES DISTRICT2 CASES2

Nakonde 592 Masaiti 6
Lusaka 321 Chipata 4
Ndola 72 Kapiri Mposhi 3
Chililabombw
Chirundu 44 e 2
Kabwe 33 Kasama 2
Chilanga 31 Isoka 2
Kafue 21 Luanshya 1
Mansa 10 Mpongwe 1
Chadiza 5 Kalumbila 1
Solwezi 5 Mungwi 1
Chingola 5 Mpulungu 1
Kitwe 5 Senga Hill 1
Livingstone 5 Chinsali 1

Source: Ministry of Health

Average = 45.19, Maximum = 592, Mode = 1, Minimum = 1

The COVID-19 virus has so far spread to 26 districts in the country. There is an average of
about 45 confirmed cases per district with Nakonde having the most cases and seven districts
with the least cases at one case each. Most districts have only one case of the virus.

9
Figure 1: Gender Distribution

Gender Distribution

Female
32%

Male
68%

S
ource: Ministry of health

Most COVID-19 patients are male with a share of 68% of the cases while the rest 32% are
female. Most of the people who are affected by COVID-19 are aged between 31 and 44
accounting for 40% of the cases. The least affected age group are above 60 with only 2 cases.

Figure 2: Age distribution

Age Distribution
>60

45-60
Age Group

31-44

15-30

0-14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Percentage

Source: Ministry of Health

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 Parameter Number
Cumulative number of high risk persons under observation 19,742
cumulative number of high risk persons that have 5,941
completed 14 days observation
cumulative number of alerts notified and verified as non- 2,850
cases
cumulative number of tests results processed 34,987
Tests per 1,000,000 population 2,058
Total Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Positive cases 1,181

Table 2: Testing and Sreening

Source: Ministry of Health

The Table above shows the total number of tests conducted by the government since the
outbreak of the disease. The government has so far conducted over 19000 tests. Out of these the
country has recorded a cumulative total of 1181 positive cases. Over 5000 suspected patients
have completed the 14 days observation period. There have been 2850 alerts under the various
alert mechanisms instituted. The Country has a testing capacity of about 2000 per million of the
population.

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Table3: Laboratory and testing Capacity

PROVINCE INSTITUTION TESTING PLATFORM CAPACITY/24HRS

RT-CPR, Gene xpert cobas
Lusaka UTH 400;192;1200
6800
UNZA-SVM RT-PCR 400
CIDRZ RT-PCR 400
Copperbelt TDRC RT-PCR 200
ADCH Cobas 6800 1200
KITWE CH Gene xpert 128
SOUTHERN MACHA RT TR-PCR 80
LIVINGSTONE
Gene xpert 128
CH
CHOMA GH Gene xpert 128
Muchinga CHINSALI GH Gene xpert 128
Eastern CHIPATA GH Gene xpert 128
ST.FRANCIS MH Gene xpert 64
Central KABWE GH Gene xpert 128
Luapula MANSA GH Gene xpert 128
Northern KASAMA GH Gene xpert 128
Western LEWANIKA GH Gene xpert 128

Source: Ministry of Health

The government has placed testing centres in all the 10 provinces in Zambia. Lusaka,
Southern and Copperbelt have three testing centres whilst the others have one testing centre
each. Lusaka and the Copperbelt have the highest testing capacities with a maximum of 1211
tests per 24hrs.Eatern province has the lowest testing capacity of 64 tests per 24hrs while the
majority of the provinces have 128 testing capacity per 24 hrs.

12
9.1 REGIONAL COMPARISON OF THE COVID-19 SITUATION

Figure 3: Regional Testing Comparison

Source: Ministry of health

In terms of testing capacity Zambia is in the bottom tier in comparison to the countries with
the highest testing capacities. Zambia is however not among the lowest in its tier when
compared to the countries with the lowest testing capacities. Zambia’s testing capacity stands
at about 2000 per million of the population which is much less than Mauritius which has a
testing capacity of over 2000 per million but much higher than Tanzania which is below 100
per million of the population.

9.2 Zambia’s Regional Standing and Impact

Snapshot as of 8th August, 2020

Total Cases: 7,486

of which 0 in severe condition
Deaths: 200
Deaths/ Total Cases: (3%)

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 Recovered: 6,264
Recovered/ Total Cases: (84%)

Figure 4: Total cumulative cases

Total cases
7000

6000

5000

4000
Total Daily cases

3000

2000

1000

0
n

l
ay

ay

ay

l
ar

ar

pr

Ju

-Ju

-Ju

-Ju
Ap

Ju

-Ju

-Ju
-M

-M

-M

-M

-M
-A

4-
7-

22
13

31
9-

16

25
20
18

29

12

20

29

Months

Source: Ministry of Health

Total infections are showing an upward trend since the start of the pandemic in the country.
The spike in daily cases begins in Mid-May of 2020 and has been on the rise since.

14
Figure 5: Total Deaths

Total Deaths
140

120

100
Total Daily Deaths

80

60

40

20

0
n

l
ay

ay

ay

l
ar

ar

pr

Ju

-Ju

-Ju

-Ju
Ap

Ju

-Ju

-Ju
-M

-M

-M

-M

-M
-A

4-
7-

13

22

31
9-

16

25
Months
20
18

29

20

29
12

Source: Ministry of Health

Total Deaths have also been showing an upward trend since the start of the pandemic in the
country. The spike in deaths begins around June of 2020 and has been on the rise since, with
no sign of slowing.

Figure 6: Daily cases

15
 Daily Infections
05 August 2020

17 July 2020

27 June 2020

06 June 2020
Dates

17 May 2020

28 April 2020

07 April 2020

18 March 2020
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Daily cases

Source: Ministry of Health

The month of June marked the highest daily cases but since then there have been fewer daily
confirmed positive cases.

Figure 7: Daily Deaths

Daily Deaths
80
70
60
50
Total Daily Deaths

40
30
20
10
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2 -2 r -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 l -2 l-2 l-2 -2
ar ar Ap pr pr ay ay ay n n n u u u g
-M 8-M -A -A M -M 7-M 6-
Ju -Ju 7-Ju 7-
J -J -J Au
18 7- 17 28 7- 16 17 25 5-
2 17 2 2

Deaths

Source: Ministry of Health

16
Daily deaths has shown a flat trend from 18/03/20 to 27/05/20 and began to rise at 03/06/20
untill it dropped at 22/07/20 and it declined at 29/07/20 to 05/08/20.

Figure 8: Total cases continental comparison

Cumulative Cases
Zambia
1%

All African Countries

99%

Source: Ministry of Health

Zambia accounts for about 1% of the total cases on the continent. Of the 810925 cumulative
cases in Africa, Zambia’s shares 7,486 of the cases making 1% of all the cases.

Figure 9: Total Deaths continental comparison

17
 Total Deaths
Zambia
1%

All African Countries

99%

Source: Ministry of Health

Of the 14224 total deaths in Africa Zambia shares 200 deaths which amounts to about 1% of
the continental total.

10 DATA ENTERPRETATION

The data from this study has shown that Zambia has been significantly affected by the global
pandemic of COVID-19. The pandemic is extant in the country as it has spread to all 10
provinces affecting 26 districts. However the majority of cases are concentrated in few
districts. Table 1 shows the extent of the pandemic in the country. As can be seen the
majority, 96% of the cases are concentrated in only 10 of the 26 districts. Nakonde and
Lusaka districts have the greatest concentration of cases with 50% and 27% respectively. The
other districs with significant cases are Ndola,Chirundu, Kabwe, Chilanga, Kafue, Mansa.
The rest of the cases only account for 4% of the total cases.

The majority of patients are male which 68% is and that of the female is 32% as shown by
figure 1 making male the group a higher risk category. Figure 2 shows the age distribution of
the patients. The majority of the patients are aged between 30 and 45. The most risky age
group are those between aged between 31-44 who account for 40% of the cases followed by
those aged between 15-30 who account for 35% and finally followed by those between 54 -
60 who account for 18% of the cases. This conflicts with the general assertion that older
people are at higher risk of infection. In the case of Zambia it is quite clear that ages below 45
are the higher risk category.

18
Table 3 shows the intensity of testing in the period of May 2020. The table shows that the
country had by may achieved a testing capacity of about 2058 per million of the population.
This is slightly below the regional average which stood at 2956 per million of the population.
Zambia clearly needs to improve its testing capacity but is not too far off.

As shown in table 3 the government has placed testing centres in all the 10 provinces in
Zambia. The government has placed three testing laboratories/ centres in Lusaka, Southern
and Copperbelt. The other districts have one testing centre each. Lusaka and the Copperbelt
have the highest testing capacities with a maximum of 1211 tests per 24hrs. Eastern province
has the lowest testing capacity of 64 tests per 24hrs while the majority of the provinces have
128 testing capacity per 24 hrs. This is a commendable job but more needs to be done to
reach or surpass the regional average as the current capacity falls significantly below the
regional average. Figure 3 shows that Zambia is far behind the leading country in terms of
testing, Mauritius but nowhere close to the worst performing countries.

Figures 4 and 5 show total cumulative cases and total deaths and figures 6 and 7 show daily
cases and daily deaths. All parameters show an upward trend with the greatest spikes between
the months of May and July. This is the demonstrably as a result of the easing of COVID-19
restrictions as these months coincide with the reopening of school for children in examination
classes. The spikes around these months have also been attributed to low compliance levels in
the general population.

As a share of the continental figures Zambia accounts for 1% of total cumulative cases and
1% of total deaths. This shows that Zambia is one of the least affected countries in Africa by
COVID-19 far. This reflects well on the country’s efforts and resolve to combat and defeat
the virus. As the snap shot of 8th August shows, Zambia so far has a recovery rate of over
80% and a mortality of 3%.Though a lot more needs to done the efforts so far are
commendable.

Zambia has also been co-ordinating with countries in the SADC region and beyond to combat
the spread of the disease. Zambia hosts the Southern Africa Regional Collaborating Centre of
the Africa CDC and has been coordinating the response at regional level. The country
continues to participate in AU meetings to ensure continued regional and continental trade
and strategies to stop transmission of COVID-19.

19
8 CONCLUSION

The results of this study show that the Covid-19 pandemic has not had the most profound
effects on the socio-economic dynamics of the country as the country is one of the least affect
both on the continent and in the world. While the disease is widely spread, it is highly
concentrated in only 10 districts of the 26 that were affected at the time of the study. The
study has shown that 80% of the cases are concentrated in only two districts which have
remained the epicentres of the disease. Males are at higher risk of contracting the disease than
females who account for only 30% of the cases. Those aged between 15 and 45 constitute the
majority of patients in the country.

In terms of total cumulative cases, the study shows that Zambia shares only 1% and in terms
of deaths, it shares 1% which is by no means near the worst affected countries in the world
such as the USA and Brazil. While a lot remains to be done, the country’s response to the
pandemic is commendable so far. The country has set up testing centres in all ten provinces
of the country achieving a testing capacity of about 2058 per million of the population
compared to the regional average which stands at about 2900 at the time of data collection.
Zambia has also been a very active participant of the regional coordinating effort to combat
the spread of the disease. The low severity of the disease has not necessitated strict measures
that have been implemented in the worst affected countries and the country has for the most
part remained open. As a result economic projections show that the county’s economy will
shrink only by 0.9% by the end of 2020.

9 RECOMMENDATIONS

As the majority of the cases are concentrated in a few hotspots, containment of the disease is
the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. This study therefore recommends
travel restrictions to the hotspots of the disease such as Lusaka and Nakonde. It is also
recommended that the government should mobilize more resources to improve the country’s
testing capacity to meet the regional average.

The study also recommends more strict enforcement of COVID-19 measures such masking
up in public by encouraging the general population and in the case of deliberate abrogation of
these measures use security and defence forces to legally enforce statutory instruments that
enacted these measures into legally enforceable law.

20
REFFERENCES

Zambia National Public Health Institute. 2020 “Zambia Situation report 66”, Ministry of
Health.

Chrine C. Hapompwe, Crispin Kukano & Jacqueline Siwale. 2020 “Impact of Covid-19 on
Zambia’s 2020 General Education Examination Candidates’ Academic Performance in
Lusaka: E-Learning Issues.” Faculty of Arts, Education and Social Sciences Cavendish
University, Zambia.

Titan Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, Michèle Tertilt.2020. “The Impact Of
Covid-19 On Gender Equality.” National Bureau Of Economic Research

Acemoglu, Daron, David H. Autor and David Lyle. 2004. “Women, War, and Wages: The
Effect of Female Labor Supply on theWage Structure at Midcentury.” Journal of Political
Economy 112 (3): 497–551.

Aguiar, Mark, Mark Bils, Kerwin Kofi Charles and Erik Hurst. 2018. “Leisure Luxuries and
the Labor Supply of Young Men.” Unpublished Manuscript, University of Chicago.

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Albanesi, Stefania. 2020. “Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women’s Employment.”
NBER Working Paper 25655.

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