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Barr, Stephen - The Design of Evolution
Barr, Stephen - The Design of Evolution
The Design of towel. The truth is that Pius XII, though cautious, was
clearly willing to let the scientific chips fall where they
might; and John Paul II was simply noting the obvious
tions would get lost, terms would be ill-defined, and sense of falling "outside of the bounds of divine provi-
issues would be conflated. dence," we should have to condemn as incompatible
By saying that "neo-Darwinism" is "synonymous" with Christian faith a great deal of modem physics,
with "'evolution' as used by mainstream biologists," chemistry, geology, and astronomy, as well as biology.
Schonbom indicates that he means the term as com- This is absurd, of course. The word "random" as
monly understood among scientists. As so understood, used in science does not mean uncaused, unplanned, or
neo-Darwinism is based on the idea that the mainspring inexplicable; it means uncorrelated. My children like to
of evolution is natural selection acting on random observe the license plates of the cars that pass us on the
genetic variation. Elsewhere in his article, however, the highway, to see which states they are from. The
cardinal gives another definition: "evolution in the neo- sequence of states exhibits a degree of randomness: a
Darwinian sense [is] an unguided, unplanned process of car from Kentucky, then New Jersey, then Florida, and
random variation and natural selection." This is the cen- so on—because the cars are uncorrelated: Knowing
tral misstep of Cardinal Schonbom's article. He has where one car comes from tells us nothing about where
slipped into the definition of a scientific theory, neo- the next one comes from. And yet, each car comes to
Darwinism, the words "unplanned" and "unguided," that place at that time for a reason. Each trip is planned,
which are fraught with theological meaning. each guided by some map and schedule. Each driver's
The line he quotes from Communion and Stew- trip fits into the story of his life in some intelligible way,
ardship may seem to support him: "An unguided evo- though the story of these drivers' lives are not usually
lutionary process—one that falls outside the bounds closely correlated with the other drivers' lives.
of divine providence—simply cannot exist." And, Or consider this analogy. Prose, unlike a sonnet,
since it is a fundamental Christian doctrine that Cod's has lines with final syllables that do not rhyme. The
providential plan extends to all events in the universe, sequence those syllables form will therefore exhibit
nothing that happens can be "unplanned" as far as randomness. But this does not mean a prose work is
Cod is concerned. "unguided" or "unplanned." True enough, the writer
But Communion and Stewardship also explicitly did not select the words with an eye to rhyming
warns that the word "random" as used by biologists, them, imposing on them that particular kind of cor-
chemists, physicists, and mathematicians in their tech- relation. But the words are still chosen. So Cod,
nical work does not have the same meaning as the though he planned His work with infinite care, may
words "unguided" and "unplanned" as used in doctri- not have chosen to impose certain kinds of correla-
nal statements of the Church. In common speech, "ran- tions on certain kinds of events, and the motions of
dom" is often used to mean "uncaused," "meaning- the different molecules in a gas, for example, may
less," "inexplicable," or "poindess." And there is no exhibit no statistically verifiable correlation.
question that some biologists, when they explain evolu-
tion to the public or to hapless students, do argue from
the "randomness" of genetic mutations to the philo-
sophical conclusion that the history of life is "unguid-
W e should distinguish betv/een what we may call
"statistical randomness," which implies nothing
about whether a process was planned or guided, and
ed" and "unplanned." Some do this because of an anti- "randomness" in odier senses. Statistical randomness,
religious animus, while others are simply careless. based on the lack of correlation among things or
When scientists are actually doing science, however, events, can be exploited to understand and explain phe-
they do not use the words "unguided" and nomena through the use of probability theory. We may
"unplanned." The Institute for Scientific Information's wish to determine, for example, whether the incidence
well-known Science Citation Index reveals that only 48 of cancer ia a certain county is consistent with statisti-
papers exist in the scientific literature with the word cal expectations, or whether there is some as-yet-
"unguided" in the title, most having to do with missiles. unknown causal factor at work. By looking at the actu-
Only 467 have the word "unplanned," almost all refer- arial statistics, the age profile, and so on, one can
ring to pregnancies or medical procedures. By contrast compute the expected number of deaths due to cancer
there are 52,633 papers with "random" in the tide, from and see whether there is a statistically significant devia-
all fields of scientific research. The word "random" is a tion from it. Implicit in all such computations are
basic technical term in most branches of science. It is assumptions about randomness. Entire subfields in sci-
used to discuss the motions of molecules in a gas, the ence (such as "statistical mechanics") are based on these
fluctuations of quantum fields, noise in electronic methods: The properties of gases, liquids, and solids,
devices, and the statistical errors in a data set, to give but for instance, can be understood and accurately calculat-
a few examples. So if the word "random" necessarily ed by methods that make assumptions about the ran-
entails the idea that some events are "unguided" in the domness of molecular and atomic motions.
OCTOBER 2005 11
The promoters of the anti-Darwinian Intelligent ing, nor yet favor to men of skill, but time and chance
Design movement usually admit that the ideas of statis- happeneth to them all," as Ecclesiastes notes. Or, to
tical randomness, probability, and chance can be part of make the point in dry technical terms, there is not a
legitimate explanation of phenomena. They argue perfect correlation between being strong and winning
instead that to be able to make a scientific inference of or between having bread and being wise.
"design" in some set of data one must first exclude other
explanations, including "chance." The members of the "VVThy is there statistical randomness and lack of
International Theological Commission were clearly W correlation in our world ? It is because events do
referring to the Intelligent Design movement when not march in lockstep, according to some simple for-
they wrote in Communion and Stewardship: "A grow- mula, but are part of a vasdy complex web of contin-
ing body of scientific critics of neo-Darwinism point to gency. The notion of contingency is important in
evidence of design (e.g., biological structures that exhib- Catholic theology, and it is intimately connected to
it specified complexity) that, in their view, cannot be what in ordinary speech would be called "chance."
explained in terms of a purely contingent process and Communion and Stewardship settles this point.
that neo-Darwinians have ignored or misinterpreted. "Many neo-Darwinian scientists, as well as some of
The nub of this currendy lively disagreement involves their critics, have concluded that if evolution is a radi-
scientific observation and generalization concerning cally contingent materialistic process driven by natural
whether the available data support inferences of design selection and random genetic variation, then there can
or chance, and cannot be settled by theology." be no place in it for divine providential causality," the
If an "inference of chance" as part of the explana- document observes. "But it is important to note that,
tion of a phenomenon cannot be ruled out on theolog- according to the Catholic understanding of divine
ical grounds, then the competing claims of neo-Dar- causality, true contingency in the created order is not
winians and their Intelligent Design critics about incompatible with a purposeful divine providence.
biological complexity cannot be settled by theology. Divine causality and created causality radically differ in
To their credit, many of the best writers in the Intelli- kind and not only in degree. Thus, even the outcome of
gent Design movement, including William Dembski a purely contingent natural process can nonetheless fall
and Michael Behe, also insist the issue is one to be set- within God's providential plan. According to
ded scientifically. St. Thomas Aquinas: 'The effect of divine providence is
We cannot setde the issue of the role of "chance" in not only that things should happen somehow, but that
evolution theologically, because God is omnipotent they should happen either by necessity or by contin-
and can therefore produce effects in different ways. gency. Therefore, whatsoever divine providence
Suppose a man wants to see a particular poker hand ordains to happen infallibly and of necessity, happens
dealt. If he deals from a single shuffled deck, his chance infallibly and of necessity; and that happens from con-
of seeing a royal straight flush is 1 in 649,740. So he tingency, which the divine providence conceives to
might decide to stack the deck, introducing the right happen from contingency.' In the Catholic perspective,
correlations into the deck before dealing. Alternatively, neo-Darwinians who adduce random genetic variation
he might decide to deal a hand from each of a billion and natural selection as evidence that the process of
shuffled decks. In that case the desired hand will turn evolution is absolutely unguided are straying beyond
up almost infallibly. (The chances it will not are infini- what can be demonstrated by science."
tesimal: 10"^^'.) In which way did God make life? Was It is not neo-Darwinists as such that are being criti-
the molecular deck "stacked" or "shuffled"? cized here, but only the invalid inference drawn by
This poker analogy is weak, of course. We don't "many" of them (along with "some of their critics")
know the order of a shuffled deck—that's one reason that the putative "randomness" of genetic variation
we shuffle it. But God knows all the details of the uni- necessarily implies an "absolutely unguided" process.
verse from all eternity. He knows what's in the cards. It is clearly the intention of this passage to distinguish
The scientist and the poker player do not look at things sharply the actual hypotheses of legitimate science
from God's point of view, however, and so they talk from the philosophical errors often mistakenly
about "probabilities." thought to follow from them.
People have used the words "random," "probabili- In his article, Schonbom cites the Catechism of the
ty," "chance," for millennia without anyone imagining Catholic Church: "We believe that God created the
that it must always imply a denial of divine providence. world according to His wisdom. It is not the product
"I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not of any necessity whatever, nor of blind fate or chance."
to the swift, nor the batde to the strong, neither yet And yet, it is one thing to say that the whole world is a
bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understand- product of chance and the existence of the universe a
12 FIRST THINGS