Engineering Demography

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY FIS UNNES

P U J I H A R D AT I D A N A R I YA N I I N D R AYA N I
SCOPE
RPS (mahasiswa wajib membaca) di mulang
Jumlah Pertemuan 1-16

Pertemuan 1-7 : kuliah daring

Pertemua 8 UTS
Pertemuan 9 15 : kuliah daring
Pertemuan 16 UAS
PERTEMUAN 1
BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYZE

SUBYECT OF STUDY
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

PU J I HA R DAT I
 OUTLINE

Definition
Basic measures of change
DEFINITIONS
(SOURCES: CHAMBERS DICTIONARY, ROWLAND AND OTHERS)

Population = a group of people, objects of items, considered

statistically
Demography = the study of human populations (demos =
people in Greek, graphein = to write)

Analysis = action of analysing = breaking something into its

component parts in order to discover the general principles
governing it
DEMOGRAFI TEKNIK
demographic and population analysis techniques, to process and interpret
statistical data and various information related to the population (fertility
reit, mortality, migration and its impact on numbers, growth, composition
and distribution) to analyze socio-economic issues and various
important events present time; both at the micro (village), regional
(provincial, district), national and global levels.
teknik-teknik analisis demografi dan kependudukan untuk mengolah dan
menginterpretasikan data statistik dan berbagai informasi yang
berhubungan dengan penduduk (reit fertilitas ,mortalitas, migrasi dan
dampaknya terhadap jumlah, pertumbuhan, komposisi dan distribusi )
untuk menganalisis isu-su sosial ekonomi dan berbagai peristiwa
penting masa kini; baik di tingkat mikro (desa), regional (provinsi,
kabupaten), nasional dan global.
 BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
We need to convert the counts into “demographic
intensity measures”
Sometimes referred to as “occurrence-exposure
rates”
 Membandingkan antara dua variabel demografi
 BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
Proportion = a ratio of the numerator to the
denominator

Membandingkan indikator / variabel demografi

dengan dengan jumlah keseluruhan variabel
tsb
BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
Probability = the ratio of the number of
demographic events or transitions to the
initial population at risk of experiencing
them (probabilities sum to 1 over all
cases/groups)
 BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
Re-scaled rates or probabilities = proportions
and rates are rescaled depending on purpose
and intensity level
e.g. percentages=proportion  100
e.g. rates per 1,000 = proportion  1000
BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
Intensities = collective noun that refers to
either rates or probabilities
BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE
Ratio = the relative size of one number to
another
BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE :
POPULATIONS AT RISK
We compute intensities of fertility, mortality and migration by
relating the events of birth, death and migration to the
population at risk of the event
The population at risk: ideally this should be all persons who
are in a country, region or local area weighted by the
time they spend there (person-time measure)
The population at risk should focus on the population really
involved (e.g. women aged 15 to 50 rather than all
people are at risk of giving birth)
Where this is not the case, our basic measures are called
“Crude Rates” (crude = not refined)
 BASIC MEASURES OF CHANGE (EXAMPLES)
(SOURCE: POPULATION TRENDS 124, TABLE 1.1)

Rate Russia EU-25 China UK USA India

2001 2002 2004 2004 2003 1998
CBR 9.0 10.3 7.2 12.1 14.1 26.2

CDR 15.6 9.8 5.3 9.7 8.4 9.0

NIR -6.6 0.5 1.9 2.4 5.7 17.2

Each country set of numbers represents the outcome of an interesting recent

population history.
However, we need more than just one year to confirm what demographic
regime a country displays. We need a set of years.
By demographic regime, we mean the combination of fertility, mortality and
migration levels that characterize the population.
ASSESMENT

Mencari contoh-contoh dari ukuran dasar

dalam demografi teknik
Mengidentifiaksi data sekunder (web)
skala nasional atauu lokal
Praktek menghitung dari data saudara
Pustaka
Mantra, IB. 2003. Demografi Umum. Jogyaarta
Pustaka Pelajar.
Web
Perkuliahan:

Tatap virtual
Tugas : individu dan kelompok
UTS
UAS

Terima kasih