India’s National Interests Regarding China

– Realist Perspective

Sarmad Naeem

BS-IR-V(A)
NDU-BS-18/F-901

IR-302 - Foreign Policy Analysis

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Introduction
India and China have for long been involved in a regional dispute for dominance. With it’s roots
back in the Sino-Indian war of 1962, this fight is another one of Cold War’s children which has
survived well into the twenty-first century and has no plans of ending anytime soon either. Such a
dispute which has been going on for more than half of a century necessitates significant political
thinking to keep it in check and hence shapes the national interest of the country. Same thing
happened in India’s case where it has to put considerable effort into keeping this dispute as dormant
as possible while reaping the most rewards for India. As such, this report seeks to ascertain and
explain Indian interests regarding China through the lenses of Realism.

India’s National Interests

Indian National Interests regarding China have been shaped in the context of it’s brutal 1962
conflict with China. This bloody war came upon India very quickly and caught it very much by
surprise. This historical context has been ingrained in Indian minds ever since who still fear a
surprise such as 1962 not just in the field of military conflict but also in the fields of economics,
diplomacy, science and technology and others. Owing to this fact and to the fact that China has
always had the upper hand in most if not all relative power distributions compared to India, Indian
interests always for most of history have taken the route of gaining what could be gained the most
in such a precarious situation. But recently a change has been observed in Indian Policy as it grows
economically and politically more relevant in the world, it’s actions regarding China have shifted
into a more active gear. Following are Indian interests regarding China in three different domains
of competition.

Economy
In the economic domain, India wants to maintain or increase its current level of trade with
China. Though the times are not the most favourable for trade between the two countries, India
on the principle of relative gains wants to gain the most. This necessitates India maintain a hostile
enough posture to secure its security interests but a welcoming enough posture so as to not damage
its extensive trade relationship with China, who is still, despite Indian efforts to increase trade with
the US, India’s largest trading partner. China still holds a considerable sway in the Indian economy
and has heavily invested in Indian businesses. Thus, it would be very detrimental to Indian interests
that trade with China dives down with regard to the changing security dynamics between the two
countries.
India does not want the security situation to get in the way of trade with China. India and
China’s stand-off in the Himalayas has only worsened withing the recent months and India is
pursuing a policy of competing with China in the Indian and Pacific Ocean Regions. These
measures are bound to have an impact on the trade relationship between the two countries and
India is keen to keep the security situation as distant from its trade relationship with China as
possible.
India wants to surpass the Chinese Economy in the coming decades if possible. Though the
optimism regarding India’s economic boom before the start of the second decade of the century
has weened, India nonetheless eyes the top economic spot in the region if not the world. To this
extent it hopes to benefit heavily from the coming security divide between the US and the West
and China. India hopes to become the key manufacturer and services provider in this shifting
political divide.
India wants to lessen its reliance on Chinese products. India, as most countries has been reliant
upon Chinese goods in many critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics. Seeking to
establish an indigenous foothold in these markets, it is favourable in India’s situation to quash the
remaining Chinese hold over its material needs.

Diplomacy
It is in Indian interests to lessen Chinese diplomatic influence in the world. China has been one
of the major diplomatic influencers on the world stage. It’s position as the world’s marketplace
and main goods provider has lent it significant diplomatic influence over most of the world,
including major power. Furthermore, China’s own efforts to expand its diplomatic influence and
its status as a P5 member have considerably added to its diplomatic muscles. India obviously
envies such an elevated status for China and thus maintains an interest in weening this diplomatic
influence or taking over it. Chinese efforts have time and again hampered Indian plans on the
world stage and India seeks to stop this effort.
India wants to develop a diplomatic foothold in the South Asian and Indian Ocean Regions.
As India’s front-yard, the Indian ocean serves as the main playing-field not just for India but for
China and the US as well. India seeks to change this power dynamic in the Indian Ocean Region
and establish itself as the main diplomatic power in the region. Indian efforts to influence island
nations such as Sir Lanka and Maldives can be taken as a practical manifestation of this interest.
Complementing its efforts to lessen Chinese diplomatic influence on the global and regional
stages, India wants to lessen China’s newly bolstered diplomatic potential through the Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI). Developments in BRI have given China a major foothold in the soft-
power stage. India wants to tackle this newfound Chinese potential as it lessens Indian diplomatic
and economic potential in the world.
And finally, in the diplomacy domain, India wants to develop stronger relations with Quad
Nations and other nations averse to China. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, colloquially
known as “The Quad” has been a gamechanger for Indian diplomacy as it gives Indian efforts
more sway on the world stage. It is in firm Indian interests to develop this relationship further and
to add to this relationship other members who have had a surge of differences with China,
especially the nations of the South China Sea, which India sees as prime fertile ground for growing
new diplomatic relations in and to strengthen India’s posture in the Asia Pacific Region.

Security and Strategy

India wants to realize its dream of becoming the “Net Security Provider” in the region. As the
name implies, India wants to become the main provider for defence and security in the region and
wants to realize the role main guarantor of peace in the region. This runs counter to Chinese
ambitions for the region who want the region open for Chinese influence and the Chinese Military.
To make India the Net Security Provider has been the primary goal for multiple Indian
administrations and such an expansion in power is only going to bring the two rivals closer to a
conflict. Indian efforts to team up US, France, NATO, CTF and other states and security
organizations operating in the region can be taken as a practical application of this policy.
India wants to deal efficiently with Chinese threats from the North and in the Indian Ocean
Region. China’s vast size and military has brought it head-to-head with India both at India’s
northern borders and in the Indian Ocean Region. India seeks develop practical military counters
to these Chinese threats such as strengthening its military presence in the North and developing its
muscle in the Indian Ocean by developing defence and security relations with nations in the Indian
Ocean and developing bases on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
India wants to develop Andaman and Nicobar Islands into Military outposts to gain control
over the Malacca Strait. The Malacca Strait is the main gateway for China. Most of China’s trade
flows through there and the People’s Liberation Army Navy has to use the same strait to venture
into the Indian Ocean and beyond. An Indian base on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which lie
on the entrance to the Malacca Strait are thus a prime national interest for India to develop as these
bases will provide constant watch over Chinese naval activities in the region.
To complement its own efforts, India wants meaningful security relations with Quad nations.
The Quad nations of Australia, Japan and the United States possess strong defence capabilities and
industries and India wants to leverage these to their fullest through meaningful defence relations
with the Quad nations.
Finally, in the security and strategy domain, India wants to strengthen its military posture. India
wants a stronger military on the whole to counter China. It wants to develop its Army and Air
Force to counter China on its northern borders and it wants to develop its Navy and develop bases
in the Indian Ocean to counter China there.

Relative Distribution of Power

National interests are irrelevant without enough power to drive them through the hurdles that a
nation faces because of states, the regional dynamics and the global order. Thus, when evaluating
national interests and their efficacy, it is paramount to develop a sense of the relative power
capabilities of the originator of the interests and who these interests are hedged against. Following
is an exercise in doing the same regarding Indian interests towards China.

Global
On the global stage, China is considered as a Great Power, rivalling Russia and The United States.
It is one of the most diplomatically and militarily strongest nations and possesses reserves and an
economy second only to the United States and a military greater in numbers than the United States
too. It is a key player in world politics and has made its presence felt multiple times over the years.
It holds a veto vote in the United Nations Security Council and its place as the world’s marketplace
cements its importance in the world.
India on the other hand is on its way to develop into a Major Power, but it has quite a journey
ahead of it to reach there. Nevertheless, it is considered as a valuable player in international politics
and it has a voice that sure is heard, if not acted upon. Though strong, it holds nowhere as strong
of a sway as China holds.

Region
Similarly, in the regional competition, China is regarded as a key player in the security and politics
of the region. It possesses significant military and political potential to influence and develop
political realties in the region, such as the South China Sea crisis.
India, again though powerful is nowhere as powerful as China. It is contested by China in the IOR
and by Pakistan in the South Asian Region. It cannot act as a hegemon in the region, but it is
developing capabilities, but those will still take considerable time to develop.

State vs. State

With regards to State vs. State power dynamics, India stands nowhere as China is markedly better
in all domains, from economy to military to national unity.
Thus, India comes out on the losing end in all of the relative power metrics, but it is to be noted
that India may become considerably stronger due to its efforts but it is highly unlikely that it will
become as strong as China.

Balance of Power
With regards to Balance of Power, India is limited only to the Indian Ocean Region while China
acts globally. China is growing its sway day by day, which is only exacerbated by the Belt and
Road Initiative. Similarly, in all other regards of national power, and even soft-power, China is
leagues ahead of India and by quite some margin.
Though India is trying to rectify this, mainly through its efforts to strengthen relations with the
Quad members and IOR States and by developing its capabilities to become the Net Security
Provider in the region, it remains to be seen if the balance tips in India’s favour or not.

Strategic Outreach
Both countries are tying heavily to develop their strategic outreach further to hedge each other.
Following is a break-down of their efforts.

China
China has been developing Naval facilities in Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan, among others.
It possesses a strong blue-water navy and a moderately air-mobile army. Its outreach has grown due to BRI
and it is supplementing that by developing and investing in countries such as Maldives, Seychelles, Sri
Lanka and Pakistan. And it has strong defence relations with countries in the region such as Pakistan,
Myanmar and Bangladesh.
India
India is busy in development of military facilities on its Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It has
recently gained access to the Duqm port in Oman and has signed a deal to develop military
facilities on Assumption Island in the Seychelles. It operates a listening station in Madagascar and
wants to develop a sonar net on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well. It holds a presence in
Maldives, Myanmar and Sri Lanka and recently started patrolling the Indian Ocean with the French
Navy from Réunion.

Results
This competition among China and India results in an intense diplomatic and strategic competition
in the Indian Ocean catching smaller Island nations among its wake. Both sides are now intwined
in actions and reactions to shift the balance of power in their favour. This problem stems from
increased activities in the Indian Ocean region from both nations.

Conclusion
In conclusion, Indian interests are for now fairly optimistic and demand much. They are fairly
heavily focused on the future though which can be a good thing if India can develop at a pace at
which the interests demand. Otherwise, India can see itself drawn deeper and deeper into a conflict
that it cannot contest.

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