CS 394R, HW3ANS (Conditional Probability and Probability Mass Functions) 80 pts.

Name
1. (10 points) The monthly worldwide average number of plane crashes of commercial airlines
is Poisson distributed with an average of 1.5.

(a) (5 points) What is the probability that there will be at least 3 such accidents in a month?
α = 1.5
e−1.5 1.50 e−1.5 1.51 e−1.5 1.52
p(X ≥ 3) = 1 − + + = 0.1911531696
0! 1! 2!

(b) (5 points) What is the probability that there is at most one accident in the next month?

p(X ≤ 1) = e−1.5 + 1.5e−1.5 = 0.5578254002

2. (5 points) Four independent flips of a fair coin are made. Let X denote the number of heads
obtained. Calculate the probability mass function of the random variable Y = X − 3.
Use the Binomial
(4) 1 4
R.V.
p(X = 0) = 0 2 = 16 1
= p(Y = −3)
(4) 1 4
p(X = 1) = 1 2 = 16 = p(Y = −2)
4
( ) 4
p(X = 2) = 42 12 = 16 6
= p(Y = −1)
(4) 1 4 4
p(X = 3) = 3 2 = 16 = p(Y = 0)
( ) 4
p(X = 4) = 44 12 = 16 1
= p(Y = 1)

3. (5 points) A total of 4 busses carrying 150 students from the same school arrives at a football
stadium. The buses carry, respectively, 40, 35, 25, and 50 students. One of the students is
randomly selected. Let X denote the number of students that were on the bus carrying this
randomly selected student. One of the 4 bus drivers is also randomly selected. Let Y denote
the number of students on her bus. Calculate E[X], var[X], E[Y ], and var[Y ]
402 352 252 502
E[X] = 150 + 150 + 150 + 150 = 119/3
403 353 253 503
E[X 2 ] = 150 + 150 + 150 + 150 = 1, 650
V ar(X) = 1, 650 − (119/3) = 689
2
9
E[Y ] = 40+35+25+50
4 = 1504
2 2 2 +502
E[Y 2 ] = 40 +35 +254 = 2975
2
V ar(Y ) = 2975
2 − (150/4) 2 = 325
4

4. (30 points total) Suppose you roll a fair 4 sided die twice.

(a) (5 points) What is the PMF pY (y) for the sum of the two rolls?
pY (2) = 1/16, pY (3) = 2/16, pY (4) = 3/16, pY (5) = 4/16, pY (6) = 3/16, pY (7) =
2/16, pY (8) = 1/16
(b) (5 points) What is P [Y > 5]
3
P (2, 4) + P (4, 2) + P (3, 3) + P (3, 4) + P (4, 3) + P (4, 4) =
8
(c) (5 points) What is P [Y > 5|Y ≥ 3]?
P (Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P (Y = 2) = 15/16

3/8 2
P [Y > 5|Y ≥ 3] = =
15/16 5

2
 (d) (5 points )What is E[Y ] ?
1 2 3 4 3 2 1
2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 =5
16 16 16 16 16 16 16
(e) (5 points) What is E[Y 2 ] ?
1 2 3 4 3 2 1 55
22 + 32 + 42 + 52 + 62 + 72 + 82 =
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 2
(f) (5 points) What is V ar(Y )?
55 5
− (5)2 =
2 2
5. (10 points total) An insurance policy pays $1000 per day for up to 3 days of hospitalization and
$500 per day for each day of hospitalization thereafter. The number of days of hospitalization,
X, is a discrete random variable with probability function
{
6−k
15 for k = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
pX (k) =
0 otherwise

(a) (5 points) Determine the expected payment for hospitalization under this policy.
If k is the number of days of hospitalization, then the insurance payment g(k) is
{
1000k for k = 1, 2, 3
g(k) =
3000 + 500(k − 3) for k = 4, 5

Thus the expected payment is

∑
5
1000p1 + 2000p2 + 3000p3 + 3500p4 + 4000p5 = 2200
k=1

(b) (5 points) Determine the variance of the payment for hospitalization under this policy.
The second moment is
∑
5
10002 p1 + 20002 p2 + 30002 p3 + 35002 p4 + 40002 p5 = 5900000
k=1

The variance is
E[X 2 ] − E[X]2 = 5900000 − 22002 = 1060000

6. (20 points total) Consider the random variable X with probability mass function
{
α(3k + 5) for k = 0, 1, 2, 3
PX (k) =
0 otherwise

(a) (5 points) Calculate the value of α.

α = 1/38
(b) (5 points) Calculate the mean of X.
0 · 5 + 1 · 8 + 2 · 11 + 3 · 14 36
E[X] = =
38 19

3
(c) (5 points) Calculate the variance of X.

02 · 5 + 12 · 8 + 22 · 11 + 32 · 14 89
E[X 2 ] = =
38 19
( )2
89 36 395
V ar(X) = − =
19 19 361
(d) (5 points) Calculate P[X ≤ 2].
5 + 8 + 11 12
P [X ≤ 2] = =
38 19