April 9, 2019

Market Commentary
By Art Cashin Prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc.

Statistics:
Cashin’s Comments
Fair Value = N.A.
An Encore Presentation
Buy Program = N.A.
Sell Program = N.A. On this day (-2) in 1788, Gen. Rufus Putnam, on behalf of the Ohio Company
of Associates founded the river settlement of Marietta and opened the west.
(Now don't start waving your Daniel Boone coonskin cap at me - Boone never
wore that cap - he hated them - and Ohio was the gateway to the west ---
that's what the French and Indian war was about....so there!!)

At the time, the river near Marietta was so strategic that a few years later,
when Aaron Burr hatched his treasonous plot to seize most of the west, his
kickoff point was right near Marietta.

But Marietta, Putnam and the Ohio Associates really figured in a Presidential
land deal and accidentally helped change America. George Washington, who
was not yet the prez, was wondering how he could increase the value of his
new inheritance, Mount Vernon. Sure it sat right on the Potomac but that
was only good for scenery. The river was too choppy for boats to navigate
that far. So Washington talked his cronies (er…..make that Fellow Founding
Fathers) into backing a plan to make the Potomac navigable and extend it
close to his pal Putnam's intended metropolis on the Ohio. Thus most of
American commerce would sail past Mount Vernon and George could sell
lemonade to the sailors.

But after they founded the Potomack Co., disputes among the bordering
states hampered work. So they called a conference to set up rules on how
states should act with each other. It went so well that Alexander Hamilton
suggested that they go to Philadelphia, invite all the states, buy some clay
pipes and punch….and see what they could agree on. Soon the conference
on rivers decided to become the Constitutional Convention and wrote the
law of the land. They felt badly that Washington never got his canal so they
made him the First President just to keep him busy.

With no canal actually built, Marietta never became Chicago but it did okay
anyway. And tax records failed to show if President Washington ever wrote
off his losses on the land deal.

The bulls thought they might be up the creek when the opening bell rang on
Monday. After just an hour of trading, they realized that a very large chunk
of the weakness came from one stock – Boeing.

Within minutes of the opening, the Dow was down nearly 180 and looking a
bit more vulnerable.
Cashin’s Comments April 9, 2019
Page 2 of 3

The bulls quickly circled the wagons as crude climbed toward a five month high, sparking new buy interest in the
energy sector. Also helping the bulls was the fact that European markets seemed to shrug off the opening gap in
U.S. markets.

The rebound rally was most pronounced in the S&P and Nasdaq, which didn't have the same pronounced
negative that Boeing brought to the Dow. By midmorning, the S&P and Nasdaq were close to regaining neutral
territory.

The morning bounce-back seemed to crest, just as the European markets were closing at 11:30 (EDT).

After the European markets closed, some of the U.S. buying began to disappear and around noon, stocks in the
U.S. were hit with a bit of a down draft.

Luckily, the bulls managed to hold the averages well above the morning lows. That seemed to inspire the re-
entry of bargain hunters. Prices began to rise again.

The Boeing influence continued to weigh on the Dow and, throughout the afternoon, it moved sideways, like the
EKG on a Maine potato.

The other indices, however, continued to benefit from the buying of the bargain hunters, and from noon into the
close, the S&P and Nasdaq moved steadily higher, ultimately into plus territory.

The Dow continued sideways getting a mild late lift from an estimated $600 million to buy on the bell.

The Boeing question remains.

A Potential Pivot In Crude – Oil continues to benefit from the Iran sanctions and the new fighting in Libya.
There is a potential reverse wild card, however, and that is Venezuela.

If they were able to remove Maduro, it is highly likely that the U.S. would rush in and do everything it could to
get the Venezuelan oil business, and thus, its economy, up and running swiftly. Not immediately likely but a clear
potential pivot that bears watching – carefully.

Overnight And Overseas – Asian equity markets again closed somewhat mixed. Tokyo and Hong Kong had
modest rallies. Shanghai saw a fractional loss, while India had a moderate rally as the multi-week election process
begins.

European markets are seeing very modest gains in light volume as May meets with Merkel and then Macron. No
discernible reaction to Trump's new tariff threats.

Among other assets, Bitcoin has slipped slightly and it is trading just below $5225. Gold is higher, climbing
above $1300. Crude is flat as Libya fighting slows. The euro is a bit higher against the dollar and the yield on
the ten year is a tick, or two, lower.

Consensus – Trump threatens new tariffs on European targets like cheese, wine, helicopters and motorcycles.
Also aiming at Airbus subsidies. So far, European markets appear indifferent.

PM May meets with Merkel and Macron in effort to extend Brexit deadline.

Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.

Trivia Corner

Answer - The 5 letter synonyms that all begin with "Q" for these words are: A) Put down = Quell; B) Agile =
Quick; C) Scruple = Qualm; D) Twist = Quirk; E) Entirely = Quite.

Today’s Question - Sure, but who takes out the garbage! Betty's brother has one more brother than he has
sisters. How many more brothers than sisters does Betty have? (No you don't need to know the size of the
family.)
Cashin’s Comments April 9, 2019
Page 3 of 3

Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or
recommendations of UBS Wealth Management Research, UBS Investment Research or the opinions expressed by other
business areas or groups of UBS as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Full details of UBS Wealth
Management Research and / or UBS Investment Research, if any, are available on request. Any prices or quotations
contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities at any given price. No
representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or
appropriateness of the information, methodology and any derived price contained within this material. The securities and
related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of
investors. UBS AG or any of its affiliates (“UBS”), its directors, officers and employees or clients may have or have had
interests or long or short positions in the securities or related financial instruments referred to herein, and may at any time
make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent. UBS may provide investment banking and other services to
and/or serve as directors of the companies referred to in this material. Neither UBS its directors, employees or agents
accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of these materials.
This material is distributed in the following jurisdictions by: United Kingdom: UBS Limited, a subsidiary of UBS AG, to
persons who are market counterparties or intermediate customers (as detailed in the FSA Rules) and is only available to
such persons. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, private customers.
Switzerland: UBS AG to institutional investors only. Italy: Giubergia UBS SIM SpA, an associate of UBS SA, in Milan. US:
UBS Securities LLC or UBS Financial Services Inc., subsidiaries of UBS AG, or solely to US institutional investors by UBS AG
or a subsidiary or affiliate thereof that is not registered as a US broker-dealer (a "non-US affiliate"). Transactions resulting
from materials distributed by a non-US affiliate must be effected through UBS Securities LLC or UBS Financial Services Inc.
Canada: UBS Securities Canada Inc., a subsidiary of UBS AG and a member of the principal Canadian stock exchanges &
CIPF. Japan: UBS Securities Japan Ltd, to institutional investors only. Hong Kong: UBS Securities Asia Limited. Singapore:
UBS Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd. Australia: UBS Capital Markets Australia Ltd and UBS Securities Australia Ltd. For
additional information or trade execution please contact your local sales or trading contact.
©2019 UBS Financial Services Inc. All Rights Reserved. Member FINRA/SIPC
UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG.