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  • Why A SARS-CoV-2 Variant That's 50% More Transmissible Would in General Be A Much Bigger Problem Than A Variant That's 50% More Deadly

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    Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly?

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    Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly

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    Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly?

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    8 views2 pages

    Why A SARS-CoV-2 Variant That's 50% More Transmissible Would in General Be A Much Bigger Problem Than A Variant That's 50% More Deadly

    Uploaded by

    Karoline Marx
    Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly?

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Thread Search Twitter

    Adam Kucharski
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    Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more
    transmissible would in general be a much bigger Sign up
    problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short
    thread... 1/
    Relevant people
    2:40 PM · Dec 28, 2020 · Twitter Web App
    Adam Kuch…
    Follow
    8.7K Retweets 1.4K Quote Tweets 20.8K Likes @AdamJKuch…
    Mathematician/epidemiologi
    st at @LSHTM.
    @WellcomeTrust fellow and
    @TEDFellow. Author of The
    Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski · Dec 28, 2020 Rules of Contagion. Views
    Replying to @AdamJKucharski own.
    As an example, suppose current R=1.1, infection fatality risk is 0.8%,
    generation time is 6 days, and 10k people infected (plausible for many
    European cities recently). So we'd expect 10000 x 1.1^5 x 0.8% = 129 What’s happening
    eventual new fatalities after a month of spread... 2/
    Politics · 1 hour ago
    25 404 2.4K
    House Speaker Pelosi
    calls for the 25th
    Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski · Dec 28, 2020
    Amendment to be invoked
    What happens if fatality risk increases by 50%? By above, we'd expect 10000
    against President Trump
    x 1.1^5 x (0.8% x 1.5) = 193 new fatalities. 3/
    Trending with
    9 331 2.2K #RemoveTrumpNow

    Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski · Dec 28, 2020 Fashion & beauty · Trending
    Now suppose transmissibility increases by 50%. By above, we'd expect #annaismissing
    10000 x (1.1 x 1.5)^5 x 0.8% = 978 eventual new fatalities after a month of
    15.1K Tweets
    spread. 4/
    18 418 2.6K Entertainment · Trending
    #HenryCavillSuperman
    Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski · Dec 28, 2020
    18.4K Tweets
    The above is just an illustrative example, but the key message: an increase
    in something that grows exponentially (i.e. transmission) can have far more
    US elections · 3 hours ago
    effect than the same proportional increase in something that just scales an
    outcome (i.e. severity). 5/5 Several White House
    officials resign following
    141 937 6.1K violence at US Capitol
    Trending with Elaine Chao,
    @accountinformal · Dec 28, 2020 Cabinet
    Replying to @AdamJKucharski
    Oh no US elections · Last night
    3 Pro-Trump crowds march
    on statehouses across the
    Mr Walk @Donald19241 · Dec 28, 2020 country
    Replying to @AdamJKucharski
    So if my understanding is correct, Greater transmisibility is a far worse Show more
    outcome than increased severity as the proportion of people effected is
    greater?
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    It's Not All About ME @Claire_Myfanwy · Dec 28, 2020
    The same proportion of people who are infected die, but far more people are
    infected in a given time/population.
    5 24 306

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