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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI
001077

SUBJECT: MUSYOKA: LIES, LOVERS, AND MERCENARIES

IN KENYA'S POLITICS

REF: (A) NAIROBI 945 (B) NAIROBI 988

Classified By: PolCouns Michael J. Fitzpatrick,

Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition politician Kalonzo

Musyoka privately sees sabotage by supporters of
a fellow presidential aspirant as behind the
false story suggesting he was cutting a
political deal with President Kibaki. The
reason for the Government's own visceral
reaction to this story (and raiding the media
house): Outrage by Presidential wife Lucy
Kibaki. Ironically, Musyoka suggested that Wife
Number 2, Mary Wambui, was responsible for the
importation of the eastern European mercenaries
that played a clear role in the media raids.
Musyoka stated that the opposition Orange
Democratic Movement (ODM) would continue to work
together, but he is clearly suspicious of his
ODM allies and will place his presidential
ambitions ahead of all other concerns. END
SUMMARY.

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ODM Suspicions
--------------

¶2. (C) Former Foreign Minister and Environment

Minister Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka described for
poloff March 8 the genesis of the Standard
newspaper story claiming he had met secretly
with President Kibaki on February 16. (NOTE:
The article -- denied by both State House and
Musyoka -- set off political firestorms and
police raids on the Standard Media Group,
reftels. END NOTE.) Musyoka attributed the
story to Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) nominal
chairperson Prof. Larry Ngumbe and two others
close to the party's charismatic de facto
leader, Raila Odinga. Ngumbe cooked up the
story to make it appear that Musyoka was
"selling out" to the Government for the sake of
a ministerial appointment (Energy), thus
discrediting Musyoka and clearing the way for
Odinga's 2007 presidential candidacy. Musyoka
called Odinga the day the story broke (February
25) expressing his concerns that Ngumbe had
fabricated the story. Odinga reportedly dressed
down Ngumbe and cautioned others in the ODM to
avoid commenting on the story as it would sow
divisions in the Movement, working to the
Government's advantage. When asked if he
thought Odinga had been involved in any way in
fabricating the meeting story, Musyoka initially
said not, but then noted he could never be sure.

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As the World Turns
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¶3. (C) The Government's puzzling reaction to

the story, which was far more damaging to
Musyoka than Kibaki, lies in the continuing saga
of Kibaki's two wives. According to Musyoka
(and many others), First Lady Lucy does not
reside at State House with the President, but
stays at their residence in Nairobi's Muthaiga
suburb. Upon learning that secret meetings with
political figures could be taking place in State
House, Lucy reasoned that other secret liaisons
(with unofficial second wife Mary Wambui) could
be transpiring as well. She went to State
House, where she stayed for two days to make her
presence felt. She further insisted that action
be taken against the Standard (with which Lucy
had a nasty public run-in in 2005), apparently
for exposing the fact that meetings could happen
in State House without her knowledge.

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Mary and the Mercenaries
------------------------

¶4. (C) Musyoka also linked Wambui directly to

the stories of eastern European (possibly
Bosnian, Russian, or Ukrainian) mercenaries
involved in the March 2 raids on the Standard
media facilities. Musyoka said he had
personally met some of these individuals, who
seemed interested in arms deals in the region.
("How", they asked, "can we meet with (the
DRoC's) Joseph Kabila?") The friend who had
introduced them later came to Musyoka concerned
that these individuals were hit men, not arms
dealers, and had simply wanted to meet Musyoka
to be able to identify their target.

¶5. (C) Musyoka said Wambui had been

instrumental in bringing the mercenaries into
play in Kenya. Thanks to her good offices, they
travel in Government cars with a security
detail. Wambui also apparently took a portion
of them with her on a trip to Dubai, where she
is alleged to have spent US$600,000 on
unspecified merchandise. Musyoka said he had
heard of plans to secretly install a portion of
the mercenaries in an office within the Police
Criminal Investigations Division. One of them,
in fact, was to be appointed de facto deputy of
CID. (COMMENT: While Post has heard repeated
suggestions that Mary Wambui and Stanley Murage
(her man at State House) are behind the presence
of the foreign mercenaries on the Government
payroll, it strikes us as true irony if Wife
Two's hired guns were indeed used to avenge a
perceived slight against Wife One. END
COMMENT.)

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Presidential Aspirations
------------------------

¶6. (C) Musyoka's presidential candidacy, and

his calculations for the 2007 race, wove their
way into several points of the conversation. He
flatly dismissed Odinga's presidential
aspirations (conventional wisdom says Kenyans
will not elect a Luo for president). He
expected Kibaki would not run for a second term.
("I don't know if it's the drugs they're giving
him, but he's sleeping on the job.") However,
there are no other logical candidates among the
President's inner circle, so the current
leadership would be forced to turn to Uhuru
Kenyatta as the default candidate. In a race
between Kenyatta and himself, Musyoka clearly
believed he would have a national advantage over
Kenyatta, who he thought would be limited to the
Kikuyu vote. (COMMENT: A scenario in which the
remnants of NARC pick the leader of the official
opposition to be their candidate would involve a
mind-boggling number of political contortions.
We think it more likely Kenyatta will remain
with KANU as a candidate. POL FSN points out
that, as Moi's chosen candidate in 2002 (and
still today), Kenyatta may be able to draw on
that patronage in 2007, potentially pulling in a
significant portion of Rift Valley support. END
COMMENT.)

¶7. (C) Musyoka said his biography is in the

works, likely to be published before the 2007
elections. Unlike Odinga and Kenyatta, who have
pedigrees dating back to independence, Musyoka
rose from humble origins and feels Kenyans need
to know more about him. An ethnic Kamba, he
hails from a village far enough to the east that
he had to worry about encountering Shifta rebels
on his way to school. His mother received no
education and speaks only a few words of
Kiswahili; his father received only a limited
education. This is the sort of background he
wants Kenyans to know as they consider
candidates for the presidency.
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COMMENT
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¶8. (C) Musyoka kept to an ODM script regarding

the need to maintain a united front in the
Movement. But it was clear from his tone that
rumors of trouble within the ODM are well-
founded. The Movement will hold together as
long as there is an issue around which members
can rally - the constitutional referendum which
brought them together in 2005 and the
Government's recent media assault serving the
purpose nicely. ODM is poised to put forward
its own strategy for re-working the
constitution, an exercise that may stick the
individual members together a bit longer.
Ultimately, though, the ODM is a marriage of
convenience unlikely to withstand the pull of
individual political ambitions. Musyoka, like
many of his colleagues, will stay with ODM only
as long as it helps advance his prospects for
the presidency.
BELLAMY

(Edited and reformatted by Andres for ease of

reading.)