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ICEP Dawn Analysis

DAWN EDITORIALS PLUS OPINIONS
DECONSTRUCTION

Dated: Thursday 16 July, 2020

BY: ICEP Analysts M.Usman & Rabia Kalhoro.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Note:
We pick out Opinions from different Newspapers
related to:

#Competitive Exams
#Essay Writing
#Current Affairs
#Historical episodes
#Pakistan Affairs
# General Knowledge
# Global Issues
# Geopolitics
# International Relations
# Foreign Policy

ICEP Dawn Analysis

‘Attack’ on NFC Awards | Daily Times Editorial
Introduction
Treasury’s numerical poverty in the Senate has failed its quite unwise (thoughtless) attempt
to amend a constitutional provision that protects the provinces’ share in the National
Finance Commission (NFC) Award, thanks to a united stand by the opposition. The cash-
strapped (extremely short of money) Centre wants to get more resources from the already
struggling provinces without creating consensus among the federating units. The move, put
up by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, was rejected
by the Upper House by a 25-17 majority vote.

Purpose of NFC Award

The NFC Award facilitates the distribution of financial resources among provinces and
the federal government, such as taxes collected by the federal government which form
a divisible pool. This pool consists of taxes on income collected through corporate tax,
sales tax and export duties, etc.

Aricle 160(3A) of the Constitution elaborates the role of NFC Award

The award, which is to be formed by the president after every five years, is duly
guarded in Article 160 (3A) of the Constitution, which reads, “The share of the provinces in
each award of National Finance Commission shall not be less than the share given to the
provinces in the previous award.” All logics and reasons besides economic principles
support the idea of keeping the monetary shares of provinces strengthened and intact,
instead of slashing it, given the ever-increasing expenditures of government affairs.

Attack on NFC Award

The mover of the bill wants to get the constitutional provision for allocations on the
basis of needs and liabilities of the provinces amended for, what he thinks, Article 160
(3A) is against the principle of equitable and fair distribution of resources.

Milestone of achieving NFC Award : safeguarding provinces’ needs

The move is dangerous. First, the NFC was earned after a lot of hectic efforts by the PPP
government in 2010. The binding force among the federating units should be strengthened
more instead of weakening it or making it a matter of discard.

Second, the government, read both federal and provincial, should work on increasing their
resources. In this regard, the federal government needs to reorganize the Federal Board of
Revenue, besides streamlining the payment mechanism to provinces. Finally, the mover
should understand that it is the federating units that collect major part of the divisible pool to
run the affairs of the State.

Critical Analysis
It is the time all parties take the constitution as well as the NFC awards as established
democratic principles. These bonds should be strengthened as autonomous federating units
will surely lead to a prosperous Pakistan. The mover should explain his intentions to his
colleagues and the nation more candidly. *

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Chabahar shock to Modi | The Express Tribune
Introduction
After Ladakh blunder comes the Chabahar shock. While the former inflicts a haunting
military trauma, the latter deals a deadly diplomatic blow — shattering India’s dream of
regional hegemony that had already been jolted (shock) due to the latest situation in
Afghanistan where Narendra Modi’s ally Ashraf Ghani is only delaying a Taliban-led
administration. All this points towards India’s growing regional isolation. Not to forget that
New Delhi’s all eggs are in the Donald Trump’s basket, while the latest popularity poll
shows the American President lagging( staying behind) significantly behind his
presumptive Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Chabahar Rail Road Project : Trilateral Agreement but Iran drops India out

Coming to the latest setback to Modi, Iran has excluded India from the Chabahar rail project.
Featuring the construction of rail line between Chabahar port to Zahedan, the project was
part of a trilateral agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan, envisaging(predicting) a
trade route connecting the three countries and providing them access to Central Asian and
Europe. However, Iran has now decided to construct the 628km rail line by March 2022
without the assistance from India. What has caused Iran to opt out of the agreement signed
four years back?

Iran-China bolstering ties : China’s $400 bn strategic partnership deal

While Tehran has cited financing delays on the part of New Delhi for fears of US sanctions,
it is now widely reported that a $400 billion strategic partnership deal between Iran and
China has resulted in the Chabahar rail project ending up a political casualty. According to
the reports, the cooperation between the two sides will span 25 years and extend from
investments in

i. infrastructure,
ii. manufacturing and upgradation of energy and transport facilities,
ICEP Dawn Analysis
iii. to refurbishment (renovation) of ports,
iv. refineries and other installations, and
v. will commit Iranian oil and gas supplies to China during that period.

Chabahar rail line is now a part of this massive deal.

Critical Analysis
While the $400 billion strategic partnership provides the much-needed lifeline to Iran whose
economy has been crippled (severely damaged)due to the international sanctions, it will
give China more access to the Indian Ocean region through the Chabahar port. As for India
— for which the Chabahar port was to counter-balance Pakistan’s Gwadar Port — the deal
serves a knockout punch.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Protecting females | DAWN EDITORIAL
WOMEN legislators in the KP Assembly have voiced their anger against growing incidents
of underage marriage, sexual abuse and murder of children. They have demanded answers
from the provincial government over the delay in legislation that criminalises child
marriages and domestic violence. The outcry was sparked due to ghastly incidents in recent
weeks:

Recent cases of underage marriage and sexual abuse

i. the marriage of a disabled 12-year-old girl to a teenager which culminated in her death
allegedly at the hands of her in-laws in Lower Dir;
ii. the marriage of an 11-year-old girl in Torghar district, and the
iii. rape of a 13-year-old in Charsadda district.

Demand of ‘aggressive legislation’ against early marriages and domestic

violence
During the session, Nighat Yasmin Orakzai of the PPP correctly pointed out that, although
the Punjab and Sindh assemblies had already passed laws to stop domestic violence against
women, KP is yet to legislate on early marriages or domestic violence. In response to Ms
Orakzai’s demand for “aggressive legislation”, the province’s law minister informed the
house that a proposed law regarding domestic violence against women had been
referred to the house’s Select Committee, while the Child Marriage Restraint Bill
would also be presented before the cabinet.

That KP lawmakers have dragged their feet on such crucial legislation for so long is
symptomatic of a larger problem: the lack of political will to protect women and children
from abuse and violence.

Child Marriage Restraint Bill : consensus on ‘permissible minimum

marriageable age’
Child marriages are a violation of fundamental human rights and have serious repercussions
on the health, education and well-being of the girl as well as her family. While there has
been some consensus in the KP Assembly about bringing a law that criminalises child
marriage, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Child Marriage Restraint Bill, 2019, is yet to be passed.
Even this consensus was reached after months of wrangling over the issue of the
‘permissible minimum marriageable age’ for a female — a debate which reflects how
deeply fraught the issue of something as basic as children and women’s protection is.

Domestic violence legislation : steps to be taken

On the issue of domestic violence legislation, there has been even more resistance from
religious parties, who, along with the Council of Islamic Ideology, have created hurdles in
bringing about the needed laws. It has been over a year since KP’s ministers pledged that
pro-women legislation would be enacted. In the absence of these laws, vulnerable citizens
continue to suffer while politicians avoid the issue.

Suggestion
The PTI, which has now been in power in KP for two successive terms, must prioritise the
passing of these laws to guarantee constitutional protection for women and children.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

How India knowingly dumped Iran |Global Village Space
Opinion

Important for Current affairs and International relations

These easily discernible strategic chain reactions were regrettably missed by many experts
owing either to unfamiliarity with the guiding motivations of each related party and/or
pressure to comply with the so-called “political correctness” being pushed by some of the
players whereby it was previously considered “taboo” to criticize Indian-Iranian relations
or rely upon factual evidence to forecast their inevitable weakening.

The Chabahar Surprise

Lots of folks in South Asia and the Mideast are discussing the real reason why Iran just
dropped India from the much-touted(praise extravagantly) and objectively over-hyped
Chabahar rail project. This development is being presented against the backdrop of Iran and
China negotiating the details of their strategic partnership over the next quarter-century.

This has led to speculation that Beijing might have played a role in encouraging
Tehran to make this decision so as to squeeze China’s Indian rival out of the
geostrategic Central Asian space.

Iran Dumped India Or Did India Dump Iran First?

For however much some might want to believe that narrative, whether to promote the
perception of a so-called “China threat” or to present China as being clever enough to ruin
some of its rival’s most precious plans without firing a shot, that’s actually not the most
accurate way to assess the situation.

In reality, India dumped Iran way earlier than the reverse, and this move was a long time
coming considering just how much India consistently disrespected Iran over the past two
years.

Not only did the South Asian state discontinue purchasing natural resources from what had
at one time been among its top suppliers as a result of America’s “secondary sanctions”
pressure, but it even started strengthening its military-strategic partnership with Iran’s hated
“Israeli” foes at the same time too.

The author briefly discussed this and the blowback that India gave Iran from its Hybrid War
on CPEC in his piece last year about “The Three Humiliating Ways That India Made A
Fool Out Of Iran”.

The CPEC Factor

It was for this reason why the Iranian Ambassador to India publicly disclosed last September
that his country “is now discussing an LNG pipeline to China along the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC), as India is not expected to retain its prior interest in LNG
imports from Iran.”

India will now rely more on the TAC to reach Europe while the US will do the same
with N-CPEC+ to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia
ICEP Dawn Analysis
The author analyzed the game-changing implications of such a move in two related analyses
at the time about how “Iran’s CPEC-Parallel Pipeline Plans (E-CPEC+) Could Ruin
India’s Regional Vision” and “Iran’s Interest In CPEC Strengthens Regional
Integration”.

Iran, though, still remained reluctant to dump India because some of its leadership seemed to
have fallen for the infowar ruse that their South Asian partner was just “balancing” (“multi-
aligning” in New Delhi’s preferred political parlance) between countries and that so-called
“civilizational ties” will always lead to it remaining “loyal” to Tehran’s foreign policy
interests.

This was a disastrous mistake for its strategists to make since their country lost valuable
time that could have otherwise been invested in more successful foreign outreaches.

The “Trans-Arabian” Turning Point

Nevertheless, the turning point in correcting the Iranian leadership’s perceptions about the
self-interested nature of Indian foreign policy appears to have been reached last December
after “Israel” revealed that it’s actively courting India to participate in a so-called “Trans-
Arabian Corridor” (TAC) with itself and Iran’s other hated foes in the GCC.

The author also analyzed this development in his piece at the time about how “The Indo-
‘Israeli’ Trans-Arabian Corridor Will Push Russia Closer To Pakistan”.

Whatever the case may be, there’s no longer any question that ties between those
two aren’t as close as they once were

In a nutshell, it was concluded that India no longer retains any serious interest in the North-
South Transport Corridor (NSTC) nor its eastern branch of the Chabahar Corridor into
Afghanistan and Central Asia.

New Delhi has much closer commercial trading ties with Europe that naturally necessitate it
more directly reaching that desired market through the TAC instead of the roundabout
NSTC via increasingly internationally isolated Iran and similarly somewhat “isolated”
Russia.

In response, Russia would gravitate closer to the global pivot state of Pakistan because of the
potential for connecting with the latter via post-war Afghanistan through what the author
previously described as N-CPEC+ (the northern vector of CPEC) or RuPak.

He also elaborated on this possibility at length in his academic article about “Pakistan’s
Role In Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership”, which was republished by the Russian
International Affairs Council (RIAC), one of the country’s top think tanks.

So Obvious In Hindsight
These easily discernible strategic chain reactions were regrettably missed by many experts
owing either to unfamiliarity with the guiding motivations of each related party and/or
pressure to comply with the so-called “political correctness” being pushed by some of the
players whereby it was previously considered “taboo” to criticize Indian-Iranian relations or
rely upon factual evidence to forecast their inevitable weakening. Whatever the case may be,
there’s no longer any question that ties between those two aren’t as close as they once were.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 The first is that the new Multipolar Trilateral between China, Pakistan, and Russia
in the Eurasian Heartland will strengthen in parallel with the US-Indian Rimland
one

India has nobody to blame for this other than itself, but truth be told, it probably isn’t all that
worried since it consciously brought this upon itself after so terribly humiliating the proud
Iranian nation over the past two years and pioneering the TAC alternative to the NTSC.

Still, India isn’t passing up the important perception management opportunity to

imply that this development is all part of a shadowy Chinese plot to “contain” it even
though the South Asian state is the one that’s actively seeking to “contain” China and
not the reverse.

The American Angle

The US had previously granted India a sanctions waiver for its involvement in developing
the Chabahar Corridor as a means of indirectly maintaining American economic influence in
the region by proxy of its new South Asian ally following its eventual withdrawal from
Afghanistan, but its new geostrategic calculations seem to be related to investing in N-
CPEC+ for this purpose instead.

The author elaborated on this earlier in the year when analyzing how “The US’ Central
Asian Strategy Isn’t Sinister, But That Doesn’t Mean It’ll Succeed”.

The point in bringing this is up is to raise awareness of the fact that neither India nor
its new American ally are really all that bothered by this development since both have
already prepared alternatives far in advance of this predictable scenario.

India will now rely more on the TAC to reach Europe while the US will do the same with N-
CPEC+ to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia. Neither of them have any further purpose for
promoting the NSTC charade which was only employed in hindsight(understanding of a
event only after it has happened) as a means of strategically disarming Iran by wasting its
time.

Concluding Thoughts : Critical Analysis

Due to these developments, a few observations can be made. The first is that the new
Multipolar Trilateral between China, Pakistan, and Russia in the Eurasian Heartland will
strengthen in parallel with the US-Indian Rimland(political theory that holds that control
of Eurasia and Africa) one.

Barring(except for) a Sino-Russo split and despite Iran’s uneasiness with Moscow’s
support of its “Israeli” ally’s regular bombing raids against the IRGC(The Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps ) and Hezbollah in Syria, Iran’s movement towards China
serves the Russian grand strategic objective of eventually creating the “Golden Ring”
between all four of them and Turkey.
Andrew Korybko is a political analyst, radio host, and regular contributor to several online outlets. This article
first appeared on “One world: Global Think Tank” under a different title and has been republished with the
author’s permission. The views in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial
policy of Global Village Space.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Comet C/2020 F3 | Article

Important for General science, general knowledge and current

affairs

Introduction:

Whye recently discovered comet C/2020 F3 will make its closest approach to the
Earth at a distance of 64 million miles or 103 million kilometres while
crossing Earth’s outside orbit on 22nd July 2020.

▪ It is also known as NEOWISE after the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA) telescope that discovered it.
▪ On 3rd July, it was closest to the sun at 43 million km due to which its outer
layer was released, creating an atmosphere (referred to as coma) of gas and dust
from its icy surface.

▪ It will be visible through binoculars or a small telescope.

Key Points
▪ The word comet comes from the Latin word ‘Cometa’ which means ‘long-
haired’.
▪ The earliest known record of a comet sighting was made by an astrologer
in 1059 BC.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

▪ Comets or ‘dirty snowballs’ are mostly made of dust, rocks and ice and can
range in their width from a few miles to tens of miles wide.
▪ When they orbit closer to the sun, like C/2020 F3, they heat up and release
debris of dust and gases.

o The solid portions of comets consisting mostly of water, ice and embedded
dust particles are inactive when far away from the sun.
o When near the sun, the icy cometary surfaces vaporize and throw off
large quantities of gas and dust thus forming the enormous atmosphere
and tails.
o The released gases form a glowing head that can often be larger than a
planet and the debris forms a tail that can stretch out to millions of miles.
o Each time a comet passes the sun, it loses some of its material and it
will eventually disappear completely as a result.
o Comets may be occasionally pushed into orbits closer to the Sun and the
Earth’s neighbourhood due to forces of gravity.
▪ According to NASA, while there are millions of comets orbiting the sun, there
are more than 3,650 known comets as of now.
▪ The predictable comets are the short-period comets which take less than 200
years to orbit around the sun.

o These can be found in the Kuiper belt, where many comets orbit the sun
in the realm of Pluto.
o One of the most famous short-period comets is called Halley’s
Comet that reappears every 76 years. Halley’s will be sighted next in
2062.
▪ The less-predictable comets can be found in the Oort cloud that is
about 100,000 AU (Astronomical Unit which is the distance between the Earth
and the Sun and is roughly 150 million km) from the sun or 100,000 times the
distance between the Earth and the sun.

o Comets in this cloud can take as long as 30 million years to complete one
rotation around the sun.

▪ Visibility:

o Comets do not have the light of their own and the visibility depends on
its gas and dust outbursts.
o Humans see the reflection of the sun’s light off the comet as well as
the energy released by the gas molecules after it is absorbed from the sun.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 o To be visible, a comet must make a particularly close approach to the
sun to produce enormous quantities of gas and dust or it should make
a relatively close approach to the Earth so that it is easily viewed.
Significance of the Study
▪ Astronomers believe that comets hold important clues about the formation of
the solar system and it is possible that comets brought water and other
organic compounds to Earth.
▪ NASA tracks all Near Earth Objects (NEOs) that includes comets and
asteroids using telescopes placed all around the Earth, as part of its NEO
Observation Program.

o Objective of the Program: To find, track and characterise NEOs that are
140 meters or larger in size since they can pose a risk to the Earth because
of the devastation a potential impact can cause.

ICEP Dawn Analysis