Kompleksitas, Arah, Progres Evolusi

KOMPLEKSITAS, ARAH,
PROGRES EVOLUSI
Prof. Dr. Tri Retnaningsih Soeprobowati, MAppSc
KOMPLEKSITAS
http://necsi.org/projects/mclemens/cs_char.gif
Problems with Complex systems
• Goals of science are the same (understanding, prediction, and control) but
the methods are different
• Requires different frameworks and methodologies which are not as well
developed as experimental reductionism
• Mathematical simulations
• Complex statistical modeling
• Nonlinear models
• Multilevel models
• Evaluation of real-world interventions
• It becomes difficult to make reassuring cause and effect statements;
Scientists are forced to live with uncertainty.
• It becomes difficult to create unambiguous mechanistic explanations
Example: Obesity Epidemic
• The United States and other developed countries are
experiencing an epidemic of obesity
• Why is this happening?
• What can be done to reverse the trends?
• Problem is so serious that life expectancies may begin
to decline by the middle of the 21st century
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1986
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4”
person)
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1988
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1989
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1990
No Data <10% 10%–14%

BRFSS, 1991
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1992
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1993
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1994
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1995
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1996
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

BRFSS, 1997
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

BRFSS, 1998
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

BRFSS, 1999
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

BRFSS, 2000
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

BRFSS, 2001
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

BRFSS, 2002
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

BRFSS, 2003
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

BRFSS, 2004
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

BRFSS, 2005
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

BRFSS, 2006
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

BRFSS, 2007
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

BRFSS, 2008
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

BRFSS, 2009
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

BRFSS, 2010
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

How can we explain this?
• What are some possible explanations?
• Is there a single cause we need to be looking for?
• If there are multiple causes, how do we study them?
• Are the causes additive or synergistic?
• Do the causes cascade across levels of analysis (e.g.,
macroeconomic factors influencing individual
behaviors)?
• Does our framework (reductionism versus complex
systems science) make a difference in how we
approach these problems?
Cascade of Causal Influences
Complex Systems Science
Environment
Biobehavioral
Antecedents Self Consequences
Past Present Future
Causal Nexus
Reductionist Science
Self
Cascade of Causal Influences

Reflections
• The question is not which approach is the best
approach, but which is the best for solving a specific
problem
• Reductionism does not automatically lead to
translation research
• Complex systems science may have much more
translation potential
• Complex systems science requires interdisciplinary
research, different methodological approaches, and
the abandonment of simple one-cause explanations
What characterizes “translation”
research?
• Addresses problems in clinical care and population health
• Evidence-based (based on best science available)
• Involves transfer of knowledge and or methods across
disciplinary boundaries
• Requires consideration of context (target is imbedded in
real-world systems)
• Coalitions and partnerships
• Engagement of communities
• Moves away from trying to find a single causal factor and
towards

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KOMPLEKSITAS, ARAH,

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% ≥20%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% ≥25%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Complex Systems Science

Cascade of Causal Influences

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