Human Population and Environment

ENV107
 Question

What is the greatest human generated threat

to the environment?
 Lecture Outline

• The scope of human population

growth
• The effect of population, affluence
and technology on the environment
• Fundamentals of demography
• The demographic transition
• Factors that affect population
growth
 Human Population Growth
• Human population grew at a rate
unprecedented in history in the 20th century.
• Although rate of growth is slowing, absolute
numbers still increasing
• Population growth is the underlying
environmental problem
Overpopulation
Overpopulation….
• The world’s population increases by 2.5 people per
second.
• By 2050, the world’s population will be 9.1 billion and
China & India will account for half of that.
• At current growth rates, the world’s population in 2150
will be 244 billion… and in 2300 will be 134 trillion.
Overpopulation…
What are the contributing factors to overpopulation?

• Cost of and accessibility of birth control methods;

• Cultural barriers (religion; little choice for women; men
wanting many children; preference of having boys;
religious beliefs);
• High death rates, so overcompensation with the number
of births;
• Government incentives.
Overpopulation….
What are some consequences of overpopulation?

❑ Famine
❑ Urbanization
❑ Shortage of jobs
❑ Poverty
❑ Shortage of space
❑ Shortage of natural resources
❑ Pollution
❑ Conflict / war
❑ Lack of provision of government services
 Overpopulation….

What are some solutions to overpopulation?

• Technology and innovation

• Improved education of women
• Improved access to birth control
• Laws limiting number of children people can have
Overpopulation…..
In both the developing and the developed world, the
number one solution to overpopulation is the education
of women:

• Women not in the labour force have fertility rates

more than twice than that of women in the labour
force;
• High income women have half as many children as
low income women;
• A woman with a college degree will have half as
many children as a woman who did not graduate from
high school.
 Policies to lower birth rate
■ Forced
■ One-child policy (China)

■ Voluntary
■ Availability of birth control
■ Incentives for small families
•Social
■ Empowerment of women
■ Better health care and education
■ End to child labor
■ Social security
Population and Environment Interrelationship

A very simple interaction between population and environment is

that high growth of population may lead to over consumption of
natural resources and degradation of ecosystem and
environmental potentials.
 It is important to examine the following issues to establish
relationship between Environment and Population (Lori
Hunter)

•The relationship between demographic factors-- population

size, distribution, and composition--and environmental
change;
• The mediating factors that influence this relationship:
technological, institutional, policy, and cultural forces;
• Two specific aspects of environmental change affected by
population dynamics: climate change and land-use change.
 Hunter’s conclusion
• Hunter concludes that population dynamics have
important environmental implications but that the sheer
size of population represents only one important variable
in this complex relationship.
• Other demographic dynamics, including changes in
population flows and densities, can also pose challenging
environmental problems.
 Population Pressure on Land and
Development…..
■ The country has reached a point of maximum utilization
in terms of potential arable land and intensity of cropping
and the only option left is to improve the agricultural
production through modernization of agriculture;
a. Wheat Production:
Pakistan = 2.1 metric tons per hectare
Germany = 6.9 metric tons per hectare

b. Corn Production:
India = 1.6 metric tons per hectare
U.S. = 7.1 metric tons per hectare
■ But it is also true that without improving the human
capital such a technological transformation may not be
feasible.
 2015
Rank Country Population (Million)
1 China 1,362
2 India 1,252 Population Reference Bureau
www.prb.org
3 United States 321
4 Indonesia 256
5 Brazil 204
6 Pakistan 199
7 Nigeria 182
8 Bangladesh 169
9 Russia 146
10 Japan 127
 Demography
• Population Ecology = the study of how individuals of a
species interact
• Demography = the application of population ecology to
the study of humans
–Population size
–Density and distribution
–Age structure & sex ratio
–Birth, death, immigration, & emigration rates
 Age Structure
Population age structure:
–The proportion of the population in each age class
–Affects current and future birth rates, death rates and
growth rates
–Has an impact on the environment
–Has complications for current and future social and
economic status.
Age structure affects future population size
•Having many individuals in young
age groups results in high
reproduction and rapid population
growth
Age structure of Bangladesh in 2014
 The demographic transition

• Demographic transition = a model of economic and

cultural change to explain the declining death and birth
rates in industrializing nations
• Moves from stable preindustrial state of high birth and
death rates change to a stable post-industrial state of
low birth and death rates
 The Demographic Transition
• Demographic transition:
– Three-stage pattern of change in birth rates and death rates.
– Occurred during the process of industrial and economic
development of Western nations.
– Leads to a decline in population growth.

Stage I: Pre-Industrial: Birth rate & death rate high

Stage II: Decline in death rate
Stage III: Birth rate remains high, High growth rate
Stage IV: Birth rate drops toward the death rate, leading to low or zero
growth rate.
 Demographic Analysis
■ Migration – the movement of people from one place to
another
■ Immigration – the movement of people into a geographical
location
■ Emigration – the movement of people out of a geographical
location
■ Push and Pull factors:
■ Push factors are reasons persons leave a location
■ Pull factors are reasons persons are attracted to a location
■ Much of migration is internal; people moving about their
country without crossing international boundaries.
 The demographic transition’s four stages

Stage 1:
Preindustrial
Stage 2:
Increasing
population

Stage 3:
Population
continues to
increase, but
growth rate
reduced

Stage 4:
Population
stable, but
overall size
larger
•As mortality decreases, there is less need for large families
-Parents invest in quality of life
 Poverty and population growth are correlated

•Poorer societies have higher growth rates than wealthier societies

–Consistent with the demographic transition theory
–They have higher fertility and growth rates, with lower contraceptive use

99% of the next billion people added will be born in poor, less
developed regions that are least able to support them
Causes and consequences of population growth
 What is Zero Population Growth, or ZPG?
• Zero population growth (ZPG) is a basic
demographic term that is important for students to
understand during a population unit. Zero
population growth refers to a population that is
unchanging – it is neither growing, nor declining;
the growth rate is zero. This demographic balance
could occur when the birth rate and death rate are
equal.
• ZPG also accounts for immigration (when a person
migrates to a country) and emigration (when a person
leaves their country to settle somewhere new).
Therefore, a country that has reached zero population
growth has a population where births plus immigration
is equal to deaths plus emigration over the course of a
year.
• When considering population growth in the entire
world, of course, immigration and emigration do
not apply and ZPG would be attained simply when
the global birth and death rates are equal.
There are several countries around the
world that are at or near ZPG, including
Iceland, Germany, Portugal, and Poland.
The population stabilization that
accompanies ZPG is often seen as a critical
component to long-term sustainability for a
country, region, or the world.
Population growth affects the
environment
The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S
Total impact (I) on the environment results from the
interaction of:
Population (P) = individuals need space and resources
Affluence (A) = greater per capita resource use
Technology (T) = increased exploitation of resources
Sensitivity (S) = how sensitive an area is to human pressure
 How to curb population growth?
•Reduce TFR
–Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of children born per female
–Increasing urbanization decreases TFR
• Children go to school, and increase costs
• With social security, elderly parents need fewer children to support them
• Greater education allows women to enter the labor force, with less
emphasis on child rearing

• Delay age of first reproduction

–China laws on age of marriage

• Between 1950 and 1985 when laws raising age first to 18 and then 20
went into effect. Fertility rate fell from 5.7 to 2.1 from 1972-1985.
Consider the difference between the parents having
their first kids at age 18 vs. having them at 26?
 China’s “one child policy”
• In 1970, China’s 790 million people faced starvation
• Introduced in 1979, extended to 2015
• Limits couples to one child
• Fines, abortion pressure, forced sterilization can be consequences for second
child
• Restricted to couples living in urban areas (~36% of population)
• Controversial- led to abortion, neglect, abandonment, and infanticide in female
infants, black market trade in teenage girls
• New provisions for parents without siblings (many born out of this policy)
• TFR in China has dropped from over 5 in the early 1970s to 1.8 in 2008
Human Impacts on Environment

Red denotes areas of extreme

environmental degradation, while green
shows areas of low human impact. What
could explain these patterns?
Humans have both direct and indirect impacts on the
environment
Human Population
Size and Resource Use

Human Activites
Agriculture, industry, economic
production and consumption, recreation

Direct Effects
Degradation and destruction of natural ecosystems
Alteration of natural chemical cycles and energy flow (biogeochemical cycles)
Changes in number and distribution of species (biodiversity)
Pollution of air, water, and soil

Indirect Effects
Climate Change
Loss of biodiversity
 Wealth also produces severe environmental impacts

•The population problem does not exist only within poor

countries
• Affluent societies have enormous resource consumption
and waste production
People use resources from other areas, as well as from their own
Individuals’ ecological footprints are huge

One American has as much environmental impact

as 6 Chinese or 12 Indians or Ethiopians
The wealth gap and population growth cause conflict
•The stark contrast between affluent and poor societies causes
social and environmental stress
• The richest 20% use 86% of the world’s resources. Leaves 14%
of the resources for 80% of the world’s people to share
• Tensions between “haves” and “have-not’s” are increasing
 Human Carrying Capacity

The maximum number of people the Earth can

sustain without decreasing its capability to sustain
same number in future.
How to maintain
populations, provide
adequate standard of living
and not destroy the
environment. THIS IS
THE QUESTION
 The Precautionary Principle
• Take precautionary steps rather than wait
for solid scientific evidence that
actions/policies are not sustainable

• Proactive, not reactive

• Socioeconomic implications
 Human Population Growth - You should know:
✔Impact of birth rate and death rate on population growth
projections
✔Concept of doubling time
✔Where most population growth is and will be occurring
✔Logistic growth curve (lag, exponential, and equilibrium
phases)
✔Age structure of developing, developed, and mature/decreasing
populations
✔Demographic transition
✔Factors influencing carrying capacity
✔Ways to limit population growth
✔Relationship between pop. size and population impact
 Group Discussion Topic
i. Identify two major environment and
development related problems of Bangladesh
and develop appropriate strategies to address
those problems in a sustainable way.
ii. How to achieve zero population growth?