Briefing Paper

What’s On the Horizon for Education & Skills in England?

Introduction
Few of us appreciated just how quickly and how radically the previous government’s reforms would
be replaced by new policies, new legislation and the introduction of a complete new lexicon.
Education journalist Mike Baker says that in his many years of reporting, only two other years have
matched this intensity of change: 1988, when Margaret Thatcher turned her attention to schools;
and 1997, when ‘education, education, education’ dominated Tony Blair’s agenda.

This paper, which has been prepared by our colleagues at FEdS, considers the year ahead in
education and skills policy under a government for which taking a deep breath does not appear to
be an option.

A timeline for significant events in 2011 is attached as an annex.

Schools will be … looking to set their budgets…

Although comparatively protected in the Spending Review, many schools will experience flat or
reduced budget allocations, with some seeing cuts of up to 1.5% or more due to reducing rolls
and/or changes in the way local authorities distribute funding. Schools with high proportions –
around 20% or more - of pupils on free school meals will see a slight budget increase as a result of
the £430 per head Pupil Premium. Capital funding is being reduced by 80%.

With most ringfenced funding streams mainstreamed into the Dedicated Schools Grant, or swept
up in the new Early Intervention Grant and reduced by 10%, there will in theory be greater scope
for strategic budgeting, but less room for financial manoeuvring.

As governing bodies wait for their funding allocation to agree next years budget, they will no doubt
welcome the abolition of the ‘claw-back’ mechanism for this year, enabling a rather more measured
approach to end-of-year spending.

There is also a fear that removing ring-fencing simply sends a message that an activity is
unimportant. That fear is currently affecting education business practitioners, who are waiting to
hear whether the £25m that goes to local authorities to pay for (a small amount of) education
business partnership activity will continue.

…wondering whether to become Academies…

The government has made a strong start to its campaign, with 204 Academy conversions since
last September and a further 254 in the pipeline. 136 of the new Academies are successful schools
that will have to support weaker schools; 68 are underperforming schools, known as ‘sponsored
Academies’.

Of the 407 Academies now open in total, 36 are primary schools, as are almost half the schools
now going through the conversion process. Assuming all current applicants are successful, the
proportion of secondary schools that are Academies will rise to at least 14% by the end of the year.

Local authorities have been told that their budgets will be top-sliced – regardless of the number of
Academies in their area - to provide some of the funding requirements of the directly funded
schools.

In the meantime, the Education Bill introduces a presumption that any new school established by a
local authority will be an Academy; and the possibility of 16-19 Academies, offering full or part-time
education, which, like a “free school” can now be established.

The question now being asked is at what point the finances become unviable for local authorities
and the movement becomes unstoppable? And what happens to maintained schools in the interim,

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as local authorities lose their economies of scale at a time when they are already cutting back on
services? And if all schools do indeed become Academies, what does that mean for ‘local
decision-making’ and the strategic role of local authorities?

…thinking about what to teach…

By the end of the year, we will have the first recommendations from the National Curriculum
review. The remit for the review states that the NC should provide a core of essential knowledge in
key subjects; embody rigour and high standards; create coherence; and allow teachers to work
beyond the core to develop pupils’ potential. Chaired by Jon Coles, Director General for Education
Standards, this will be the first curriculum review to be carried out by the DfE rather than an arms-
length organisation.

The first phase of the review will develop new draft programmes of study (PoS) for English, maths,
science and PE, which will remain compulsory subjects up to 16. Following initial consultation, it
will report to Ministers in autumn 2011. The new PoS will be subject to consultation early in 2012,
with a view to them being introduced in 2013.

Phase 1 will also decide which other subjects should remain in the NC, and Phase 2 will develop
statutory and non-statutory PoS to be introduced – following consultation - in 2014.

…and how they’ll be judged…

From September, subject to legislation, Ofsted will focus on core teaching and learning, observing
more lessons and devoting more time to weaker schools. The 27 headings in the inspection
framework will be replaced by four: pupil achievement; quality of teaching; leadership and
management; behaviour and safety of pupils. Inadequate schools will be inspected termly, while
outstanding schools will only be inspected if their standards drop or if they request it.

Secondary schools are dealing with the outcome of the government’s decision to publish the
results of an ‘English Baccalaureate’ (EBacc) that was announced in September.

…while new schools are created…

The government’s flagship ‘free schools’ continue to attract debate, although only 25 applications
are in the pipeline.

Plans are ‘under way’ for five University Technical Colleges to open this year, including in the
Black Country and Norfolk. The government is officially committed to opening 12 over the next four
years, but in November Lord Baker said he predicted 15 to 20 by 2012. Recently he said that there
could be as many as 70 before the end of the parliament.

The Wolf Report on vocational education will cause more debate about ‘what’, ‘when’ and
‘where’
The review is due to report ‘in the spring’. The review aims to address the way the education
system has failed to value practical education and seek to ensure that all vocational qualifications
are “rigorous, relevant and bear comparison with the best in the world”.

Stakeholder sessions have been focusing on ensuring apprenticeship frameworks are appropriate
for both young people and adults; the need for more ‘technicians’ in certain sectors; the desirability
of offering vocational education to 14-16 year-olds; and how to ensure high-quality qualifications,
including through employer involvement.

The growth in post-16 participation could slow down

The current government supports the policy of participation in education and training up to 18, but
has introduced a number of changes that could affect the participation rates of recent years. The
Education Committee has launched a new inquiry 16-19 participation in education and training.

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 The Educational Maintenance Allowance has now definitely been abolished. Simon Hughes,
deputy leader of the Lib Dems, is helping to develop an alternative as part of his temporary
‘access’ role, but the £26m budget is short of EMA’s £560m.

 The concept of a coherent 14-19 phase appears to have disappeared from the DfE, partly
replaced by ‘16-19’. Individual policies still exist, but there no longer seems to be an overall
strategy for this age group focused on participation, achievement and preparation for later life.

 Although Diplomas continue to be valued by young people, teachers and employers, the
EBacc could question their future. They are to be reviewed and simplified in the light of the
Wolf Report.

 The ‘pull through’ effect of increasing entry to HE could weaken as a result of the combined
‘shock’ of increased tuition fees and fears about graduate recruitment.

Plans for a radical reshaping of higher education

A busy spring will also see the Higher Education White Paper published.

The Department for Business, Innovation & Skills will be undertaking research to assess the
potential for expanding HE in FE as a ‘flexible and accessible’ route; and publishing firm Pearson is
hoping to offer four vocational degrees based on BTECs. In the meantime, as this paper goes to
press, university applications were up 2.5% compared to the same point last year.

Ministers see further education colleges as key to skills and economic growth
They have told FECs that they must develop “meaningful relationships” with the new Local
Enterprise Partnerships, of which there are now 28. The National Institute of Adult Continuing
Education (NIACE), the Association of Colleges (AoC) and the 157 Group have launched a joint
inquiry into ‘Colleges in the Community’, which will report in the autumn.

Although the sector will experience a 25% cut to its budget over the next four years, the increase in
funding for apprenticeships and greater flexibility in funding streams should increase FECs’
strategic decision-making powers. It is likely that the FE sector will feature heavily in the
government’s action plan for growth, to be published at the same time as the Budget.

A paper is promised in the spring on how the sector will be opened up to independent and private
providers to help ensure responsiveness and quality. Groups of employers, independent training
providers and employer-led organisations will be given the opportunity to run failing local colleges.

Apprenticeships will continue to be a top priority

The government wants more businesses to understand the benefits of employing apprentices; and
existing apprenticeship employers to expand their schemes.

The budget for 16-19 apprenticeships will increase by 2.4% in 2011-12, up to £799m, resulting in
an estimated 5.5% increase in the number of learners in (academic year) 2011/12, up to 230,000.

Apprenticeships will also be “at the heart” of the adult skills offer, with 21% of the budget being
allocated to the programme, compared to 13% in 2010-11. The focus will be on level 3 –
‘technician’ level -and Skills Minister John Hayes wants to create a guild-like system, with a
hierarchy of fellows and masters.

We will see an all-age careers service in England

John Hayes, the Minister who has joint responsibility for careers in BIS and DfE, has said that the
new service will build on the best of Next Step and Connexions, and will be founded on two key
principles:
 Impartial careers advice independent of organisations with a ‘vested interest’;

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 Ensuring professional expertise and leadership of careers guidance services are underpinned
by clear national standards.

The Education Bill will introduce a requirement on schools to secure independent, impartial careers
guidance for their students and to provide information on all 16-18 options. Local authorities will
continue to be required to ensure support is provided for the most vulnerable groups. They will also
be responsible for maintaining accurate data on young people that will ensure services can be
targeted at those in most need. Universities will continue to provide their own careers services but
will also encourage use of the new all age careers service and apply the same standards.

The recommendations of the Careers Profession Taskforce will be implemented, with the Careers
Profession Alliance driving the agenda for change.

The economy and employment remain uncertain

News that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010 – rather than achieving
an expected 0.5% rise – has cast new doubt on prospects for 2011 and the government’s
economic strategy. The contraction was caused by weakness in services and consumption, and
was affected by the bad weather, although even without the heavy snow growth would have
remained flat. Sectors able to benefit from the weak pound are doing better, with manufacturing up
1.4%. However, manufacturing does not account for a sufficiently large part of the British economy
to boost overall demand.

Graduate recruitment proved surprisingly positive last year, as did both permanent and temporary
recruitment overall. The proportion of new graduates unemployed between July and September
rose to 20%, compared to 5.2% in 2008, although young graduates are still more likely to be
employed than their non-graduate peers. The next few months are likely to be tough for
employment, particularly in the public sector. The prospects are particularly bleak for 16-24 year-
olds, with unemployment now at a record high at 20.3%, compared to 7.9% for the workforce
overall.

Around the time of the Budget, the government will publish its growth review, which will combine
plans from across the Departments. Employment, growth and the impact of public sector cuts will
vary by area, and much hope is being pinned on the new Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and
the Regional Growth Fund to provide a focus for local recovery and economic ‘rebalancing’.

The policy infrastructure will continue to change, with more power moving into the
departments
 The Education Bill will abolish the Qualifications & Curriculum Development Agency (QCDA),
and residual duties will move into the DfE or Ofqual.

 It will also abolish the Training & Development Agency for Schools (TDA) and transfer its work
to the DfE; and the National College is to become an executive agency of the DfE by 2012.

 The Bill abolishes the Young People’s Learning Agency (YPLA) and replaces it with the
Education Funding Agency, also an executive agency.

This year is crucial for the Coalition Government to match the pace of reform with strategic
direction and detail, so that the “Big Society” vision becomes more coherent. There is potential for
a degree of professional freedom and community initiative that has not been seen for a long time –
but with risks. Prospects, working with our sister company FEdS, will track developments and
encourage debate and response throughout the year.

FEdS January 2011

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FEdS is part of the Prospects group of companies. The aim of FEdS is to provide a space
for members from across the education business to develop their thinking, share ideas and
influence policy and practice. If you would like more information regarding FEdS, please
contact: coral.rayfield@feds.co.uk

2011 Timeline

JANUARY Education Bill first reading (2nd reading: 8 February)

SPRING Special Educational Needs Green Paper

Higher Education White Paper

Paper on Further Education Organisation

Wolf Report on Vocational Education

Proposals published on introduction of loans for FE students

Tickell Report on Early Years Foundation Stage

Government Growth Review

First Regional Growth Fund allocations announced

First Pupil Premium payments

SUMMER Bew Report on Key Stage 2 Testing

2nd Allen Report on Early Intervention: use of new private sector financial
instruments

AUTUMN First elements of all-age career service available to young people

First University Technical Colleges open

First Free Schools open

Simplified Ofsted inspection framework introduced [subject to legislation]

National Curriculum Review Phase One reports

Colleges in the Community Inquiry reports (NIACE/AoC/157 Group)

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