Probability

• A quantitative measure of uncertainty.

• A measure of degree of belief in a particular statement or problem.
• Uncertainty is also an inherent part of statistical inference because
Inferences are based on a sample.
• Examples (toss a coin, draw a card or throw dice etc.)
• Uncertainty in all these cases is measured in terms of probability.
To solve the gambling problems, the foundations of probability were laid
by two French Mathematicians;
• Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)
• Pierre De Fermat (1601-1665)
After that;
• Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705)
• Abraham De Moivre (1667-1754)
• Pierre Simon Laplace (1749-1827)
Modern rules were developed in 19th century.
Probability helps to make intelligent decisions in Economics,
Management, Operations Research, Sociology, Psychology, Astronomy,
Physics, Engineering and Genetics where risk and uncertainty are
involved.
The probability theory is best understood through the application of the
modern set theory.
Sets
A set is any well-defined collection or list of distinct objects, e.g. a group
of students, the books in a library, the integers between 1 and 100, all
human beings on the Earth, etc.
• Well-defined refers to belonging of objects to the set.
• Distinct means that each object must appear only once.
• Objects are called elements or members of a set.
• Sets are denoted by Capital Letters e.g. A, B, X, Y etc.
 • Elements are denoted by small letters e.g. a, b, x, y etc.
• Elements are enclosed by braces to represent a set, e.g.
A = {a, b, x, y} or B = {1,2,3,8}
• Number of elements of a set A, is written as n(A).
• Empty or null set “φ”.
• 0 is not an empty set.
• Unit set or a singleton set.
• Elements of a set may be sets themselves.
A set may be specified in two ways;
• Roster Method;
A = {1,2,3,4,5,6} or B = {a book, a city, a clock, a teacher}
• Rule method:
A = {x | x is an odd number and x < 12}.
Finite set
A = {1,2,3, ….,99,100}
B = {x | x is a month of the year}
C = {x | x is a printing mistake in a book}
D = {x | x is a living citizen of Pakistan}
Infinite set
A = {x | x is an even integer}
B = {x | x is a point on a line}
D = {x | x is a sentence in the English language}
Subsets
A set that consists of some elements of another set, is called a subset of
that set.
A = {1,2,3,4,5,10} and B = {1,3,5}
In this example B is a subset of A.
• Every set is a subset of itself.
• An empty set is a subset of every set.
Identical sets refer to the sets having exactly same elements. And they
are subsets of each other.
A = {1,2,3,4} and B = {1,2,3,4}
Universal Set or Space (S)
The large or the original set of which all the sets we talk about, are
subsets.
• Universal set is also a subset of itself.
• Universal set with “n” elements will produce 2n subsets, including
S and φ. S = {a, b}
Venn Diagram

Operations on Sets explained with Venn Diagrams

• The union of two sets;

• The intersection of two sets;

• The difference of two sets;

 • The complement of a set;

Example:
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
A = {1,2,3}
B = {3,4,5}
C = {2,3,7,8}
Different Operations on Sets:
AᴜB = {1,2,3,4,5}
BᴜA = {1,2,3,4,5}
AᴜC = {1,2,3,7,8}
CᴜA = {1,2,3,7,8}
BᴜC = {2,3,4,5,7,8}
CᴜB = {2,3,4,5,7,8}
A∩B = {3}
B∩A = {3}
A∩C = {2,3}
C∩A = {2,3}
B∩C = {3}
C∩B = {3}
A-B = {1,2}
B-A = {4,5}
A-C = {1}
C-A = {7,8}
B-C = {4,5}
C-B = {2,7,8}
Ac = S-A = {4,5,6,7,8,9}
Bc = S-B = {1,2,6,7,8,9}
Cc = S-C = {1,4,5,6,9}
Sc = S-S = φ
A∩Bc = A-B = {1,2}

The Algebra of Sets:

Let A, B and C be any subsets of the universal set S.
Commutative Laws:
• AᴜB = {1,2,3,4,5}
 BᴜA = {1,2,3,4,5}
And;
• A∩B = {3}
B∩A = {3}
Associative Laws:
• (AᴜB)ᴜC = {1,2,3,4,5,7,8}
Aᴜ(BᴜC) = {1,2,3,4,5,7,8}
And;
• (A∩B)∩C = {3}
A∩(B∩C) = {3}
Distributive Laws:
• A∩(BᴜC) = {2,3}
(A∩B)ᴜ(A∩C) = {2,3}
And;
• Aᴜ(B∩C) = {1,2,3}
(AᴜB)∩(AᴜC) = {1,2,3}
Idempotent Laws:
• AᴜA = A = {1,2,3}
• A∩A = A = {1,2,3}
Identity Laws:
• AᴜS = S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
• A∩S = A = {1,2,3}
• Aᴜφ = A = {1,2,3}
 • A∩φ = φ
Complementation Laws:
• AᴜAc = S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
• A∩Ac = φ
• (Ac)c = A = {1,2,3}
• Sc = S-S = φ
• Φc = S-φ = S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
De Morgan’s Laws:
• (AᴜB)c = S-(AᴜB) = {6,7,8,9}
Ac∩Bc = {6,7,8,9}
And;
• (A∩B)c = {1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9}
AcᴜBc = {1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9}
Partition of Sets
A partition of a set S is a sub-division of the set into non-empty subsets
that are disjoint and exhaustive, i.e. their union is the set S itself.
• AiᴜAk = S
• Ai∩Ak = φ
For Example;
• S = {a, b, c, d, e}
• Ai = {a, b}
• Ak = {c, d, e}
Class of Sets
• A set of sets is called a class.
• The class of all subsets of a set A is called the Power set of A.
For Example;
 • A = {H, T}
• Power set of A = {φ, (H), (T), (A)} or {φ, (H), (T), (H, T)}
Cartesian Product Sets
The Cartesian product of sets A and B, denoted by A x B, is a set that
contains all ordered pairs (x, y), where x belongs to set A and y belongs
to set B.
For Example;
• A = {x | x is a side of a coin}
• B = {y | y is a side of a die}
• Then,
• A = {H, T}
• B = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• If one coin and one die (plural dice) tossed together.
• A x B = {(H, 1); (H, 2); (H, 3); (H, 4); (H, 5); (H, 6); (T, 1); (T, 2); (T, 3);
(T, 4); (T, 5); (T, 6)}

Experiment:
The term experiment means a planned activity or process
whose results yield a set of data.
Trial:
A single performance of an experiment.
Outcome:
The result obtained from an experiment or a trial.
Random Experiment:
An experiment which produces different results even
though it is repeated many times under essentially similar
conditions.
For example;
Tossing a fair coin, throwing of a balanced die and drawing
of a card from a well shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
Properties of Random Experiment:
➢ The experiment can be repeated any number of
times.
➢ The experiment always has two or more possible
outcomes.
➢ Every possible outcome is already known.
➢ The outcome of each trial is unpredictable.
Deck of playing cards contains;
➢ 52 cards.
➢ Arranged in 4 suits (Clubs, Spades, Hearts and
Diamonds) of 13 each.
➢ Clubs and Spades are black.
➢ Heats and Diamonds are red.
➢ Honor cards are Ace, 10, Jack, Queen, and King.
➢ Face cards are Jack, Queen, and King.
Sample Space:
A set consisting of all possible outcomes that can result
from a random experiment. It is denoted by “S”.
Sample Point:
Each possible outcome is called sample point in a sample
space.
For example;
Sample space of tossing a coin is;
S = {H, T}
Sample space of tossing two coins at a time is;
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Remember the Cartesian product A x A.
Sample space of throwing two six-sided dice will be;
A x A = 6 x 6 = 36
 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Finite Sample Space:
If the number of sample points are finite.
Discrete Sample Space:
If the sample points are countable.
Continuous Sample Space:
If the sample points are infinite or uncountable.
Event:
An individual outcome or any number of outcomes of a
random experiment.
Simple Event:
An event that contains exactly one sample point.
For example;
The occurrence of 6 when a die is thrown.
Compound Event:
An event that contains more than one sample points.
For example;
The occurrence of a sum of 10 with a pair of dice. It can be
decomposed into three simple events;
(4, 6), (5, 5) and (6, 4).
Explanation:
A sample space consisting of “n” sample points can
produce 2n different simple and compound events.
For example;
A set containing three elements
S = {a, b, c,}
Then 2n = 23 = 8 subsets are;
φ, {a}, {b}, {c}, {a, b}, {a, c}, {b, c}, {a, b, c}
Similarly;
A sample space containing three sample points
S = {a, b, c,}
Then 2n = 23 = 8 possible events are;
φ, {a}, {b}, {c}, {a, b}, {a, c}, {b, c}, {a, b, c}
Where;
• {a, b, c} is an event and the sample space itself and it
always occurs so it’s called “sure event”.
• While φ is also an event but it’s called “impossible
event”.
The class of the above 8 events or subsets can be called a
field. These events have the following features;
• The union of any number of events will result in a set
that belongs to field.
{a, b} ᴜ {a, c} = {a, b, c}
 • The intersection of any number of events will result in
a set that belongs to field.
{a, b} ∩ {a, c} = {a}
• The difference of any two events belongs to field.
{a, b} - {a, c} = {b}
• The compliment of any event belongs to field.
ac = φ, {b}, {c}, {a, b}, {a, c}, {b, c}, {a, b, c}
Mutually Exclusive Events:
Cannot occur at the same time.
For example;
• Tossing a coin can have either head or tail.
• Throwing a die can have either of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
• A student either qualifies or fails.
If two events can occur at the same time, they are not
mutually exclusive.
For example;
• If we draw a card from a deck of 52 playing cards, it
can be both a king and a diamond. So, kings and
diamonds are not mutually exclusive.
• Inflation and recession are not mutually exclusive
events.
Exhaustive Events:
When the union of mutually exclusive events is the entire
sample space “S”.
For example;
In coin-tossing experiment, head and tail are exhaustive
events because the union of them is the entire sample
space (S = {H, T}).
Equally Likely Events:
Two events A and B are equally likely, when one event is
as likely to occur as the other.
For example;
When a coin is tossed, the head is as likely to appear as
the tail (fifty-fifty chances of occurrence).

Events and Symbolic Representations:

Verbal Statement Set Notation
Event A is impossible A=φ
Event A is sure A=S
Event A does not occur Ac
Event A or event Ac A ᴜ Ac = S
Event A or event B AᴜB
Event A and event B A∩B
Event A occurs but B does not occur A ∩ Bc
Events A and B are mutually exclusive A ∩ B = φ
Events A and B are exhaustive AᴜB=S

Compound Experiment:
Tossing a coin and throwing a die together is called
compound experiment because it consists of two different
experiments.
Counting Sample Points or Possible Outcomes:
When the number of sample points (possible outcomes)
of a compound experiment is very large then we need to
use the following methods to count them.
Rule of Multiplication:
Number of outcomes = mn
Where;
m = Outcomes of first experiment
n = Outcomes of second experiment
For example;
Tossing a coin and throwing a die together;
S = {H, T}
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
m=2
n=6
Number of outcomes = mn = 2 x 6 = 12
Note: This rule can be extended to compound
experiments consisting of any number of experiments.
Rule of Permutation:
Permutation is any ordered subset selected from a set of
“n” distinct objects.
n
Pr = n! / (n - r)!
where;
r = number of objects chosen
n = total number of objects
Example:
A club consists of four members. How many sample points
are in the sample space when three officers--president,
secretary, and treasurer are to be chosen?
n=4
r=3
nP = n! / (n - r)!
r
4P = 4! / (4 - 3)!
3
4P = 4x3x2x1 / (4 - 3)!
3
4P = 4x3x2x1 / 1!
3
4P = 24 / 1
3
4P = 24
3
Explanation:
Four members = A, B, C, D
Three are to be chosen and order is important due to
designation. So;
ABC ABD ACB ACD ADB ADC BAC BAD BCA BCD
BDA BDC CAB CAD CBA CBD CDA CDB DAB DAC
DBA DBC DCA DCB
Note: nPr = nPr

Practice Questions:
• How many 6-digit telephone numbers can be formed
if each number starts with 35 and no digit appears
more than once and the order is important?

Total digits without 3 and 5 = 0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9

First two digits are 3 and 5 so the remaining four digits will
be selected from eight digits {0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9} to form
a unique 6-digit telephone number.
Therefore,
Total number of ways = 8P4 = 1680

• There are 4 czech and 3 slovak books on the

bookshelf. Czech books should be placed on the left
side of the bookshelf and slovak books on the right
side of the bookshelf. How many ways are there to
arrange the books while the order is important?

Number of ways Czech books can be arranged = 4P4 = 24

Number of ways Slovak books can be arranged = 3P3 = 6
So,
Total number of ways = 24 x 6 = 144

Rule of Combination:
Combination is any subset selected, without the concern
of order, from a set of “n” distinct objects.
n
Cr = n! / [r! (n - r)!]
where;
r = number of objects chosen
n = total number of objects
Example:
A three-person committee is to be formed from a list of
four persons. How many sample points are associated
with this experiment?
n=4
r=3
nC = n! / [r! (n - r)!]
r
4C = 4! / [3! (4 - 3)!]
3
4C = 4x3x2x1 / [3x2x1 (1!)]
3
4C = 24 / [6 (1)]
3
4
C3 = 24 / 6
4C = 4
3
Explanation:
Four members = A, B, C, D
Three are to be chosen and order is unimportant. So;
ABC ABD ACD BCD

Practice Questions:
• How many sample points are in the sample space
when a person drawn a hand of 5 cards from a well-
shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards?
n = 52
r=5
nC = n! / [r! (n - r)!]
r
52C = 52! / [5! (52 - 5)!]
5
52C = 52! / [5! (52 - 5)!]
5
52C = 25,98,960
5

Note: nCr = nCr

• In a group of 6 boys and 4 girls, four children are to

be selected. In how many different ways can they be
selected such that at least one boy should be there?
Option-1
We can select 4 boys = 6C4 = 15
Option-2
We can select 3 boys and 1 girl = 6C3 x 4C1 = 80
Option-3
We can select 2 boys and 2 girls = 6C2 x 4C2 = 90
Option-4
We can select 1 boy and 3 girls = 6C1 x 4C3 = 24
So,
Total number of ways = 15 + 80 + 90 + 24 = 209

• From a group of 7 men and 6 women, five persons

are to be selected to form a committee so that at
least 3 men are there in the committee. In how many
ways can it be done?
Option-1
3 men and 2 women = 7C3 x 6C2 = 35 x 15 = 525
Option-2
4 men and 1 woman = 7C4 x 6C1 = 35 x 6 = 210
Option-3
5 men = 7C5 = 21
So,
Total number of ways = 525 + 210 + 21 = 756

• A bag contains 2 white balls, 3 black balls and 4 red

balls. In how many ways can 3 balls be drawn from
the bag, if at least one black ball is to be included in
the draw?
Option-1
1 black and 2 others = 3C1 x 6C2 = 3 x 15 = 45
Option-2
2 black and 1 other = 3C2 x 6C1 = 3 x 6 = 18
Option-3
3 black = 3C3 = 1
So,
Total number of ways = 45 + 18 + 1 = 64

• A box contains 4 red, 3 white and 2 blue balls. Three

balls are drawn at random. Find out the number of
ways of selecting the balls of different colors?
1 red, 1 white and 1 blue = 4C1 x 3C1 x 2C1 = 4 x 3 x 2 = 24