Conventional Fossil Fuels: Coal

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

August 31, 2020

Coal: The solid fossil fuel

eia.gov

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 What is coal?

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The composition and energy content
of coal are non-uniform
Coal - a compact stratified mass of ancient, metamorphosed
plant (i.e. trees, bushes, ferns, algae, etc.) that has undergone
arrested decay to different extents of completeness due to heat
and pressure over geologic timescales. [Tester 2005]
• Readily combustible sedimentary rock (a solid hydrocarbon)
• Contains more than 50% organic matter (carbon) by weight
• Also contains inorganic content (minerals), and elemental
sulfur and nitrogen.
• Carbon, nitrogen, & sulfur content affect how cleanly it burns
“Peatification”: Step before coal formation
• Peat = partially decayed plant matter that accumulates in
wetlands.
• Peat forms when rate of plant debris accumulation > rate of
bacterial decay, which is facilitated by anaerobic conditions.
“Coalification”: When peat is buried, the weight of sediment on
top squeezes out moisture, reducing volume via compaction
• Compaction causes deeper burial, temperatures rise.
• Pressure + heat causes coal to form and increase coal
“rank” over time
Four ranks: lignite, subbituminous, bituminous, anthracite
• Ranks range from young coal (low energy density) to old
coal (high energy density)
• rank depends on amounts of carbon & heat energy
• lower heat/energy density = lower rank
• The oldest coal was derived from fern forests and swamps
over 345 million years ago

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The “rank” or quality of coal depends on its age
and degree of pressurization and compression
• Lignite Coal: first (lowest) rank of coal (low rank)
– Brown color, crumbly texture, almost like dirt
– Contains 40 to 55% carbon (room for more impurities) and >35% moisture.
– have calorific (heating) values less than 8,300 Btu/lb
– Moisture content decreases dramatically from peat to lignite
• Sub-Bituminous Coal: second rank (also low rank)
– Soft coal, most widely available
– 35-45 percent carbon
– In US, rank is based on calorific value between 8,300 to 11,500 Btu/lb
• Bituminous Coal: third (medium rank)
– black, shiny, and generally hard
– 45-86 percent carbon (2-3X heat of lignite); calorific values above 11,500 Btu/lb
(but sometimes as low as 11,100) and volatile matter below 14%
– Most abundant rank of coal in the United States (50%)
– Raw material for the steel and iron industries.
– leading states: West Virginia, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania
• Anthracite: fourth, highest rank (high rank)
– shiny (glassy) and break more like glass
– have volatile matter less than 14% and fixed carbon contents greater than 86%
on a dry mineral-matter free basis
– Most coals don’t get to anthracite (very rare in US) and often has a lower heating
Image: Kentucky Geological Survey value than bituminous coal)

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Coal is
heterogenous,
so composition
varies, even
within ranks

Note: do not worry about subdivisions A, B, C, etc.

Image above: Univ. of Kentucky
Rank Source in US Percent Carbon Percent Sulfur BTU per lb Age
(millions)
Anthracite (highest rank) Pennsylvania 88 0.9 13,300 >340
Semi-anthracite Arkansas 79 1.7 13,700
Bituminous Pennsylvania 57 1.4 13,870 ~300
Illinois 49 0.9 11,930
Michigan 50 1.2 11,780
Kansas 53 4.3 12,930
Utah 51 0.8 12,760
Washington 50 0.5 12,250
Subbituminous Wyoming 46 0.6 10,750
Kelly
Lignite
8/31/2020
T. Sanders,
(lowest rank) Ph.D.
North Dakota
Texas
27
16
0.6
1.3
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6,700
7,140
6
~150
 How is coal produced,
processed and transported?

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Coal Mining is Dangerous

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There Are Two Types Of Coal Mining:
Surface and Underground

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 Most coal is now produced with surface mining methods,
because it is cheap and efficient
• As the US market has shrunk, smaller, less Tons of coal output per year (1949-2015)
efficient mines have been the first to close Figure: Kolstad (2017)

• Most of the mine closures were in the

Appalachian region.

• Although underground mines had a larger

percentage of closures from 2008 to 2017
(60% versus 49% of surface mines), surface
mines have seen larger declines in
production, (falling 39% compared with 24%
for underground mines).

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Policy has affected where power plants prefer to
source their coal
In 2017,
approximately 70% of
production originated
in five states: WY, WV,
KY, PA, and IL
The five largest coal-producing
states with production in
million short tons and their
share of total U.S. coal
production in 2017:
Wyoming—316.5—41%
West Virginia—92.8—12%
Pennsylvania—49.1—6%
Illinois—48.2—6%
Kentucky—41.8—5%
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Why does the US prefer Powder River
Basin coal?
• More than 40% of coal produced
in the United States comes from
16 mines in the Powder River
Basin, PRB (northeast Wyoming
and southeast Montana)
• PRB’s subbituminous coal has a
relatively low sulfur content,
which helps power plants meet
the tightening Clean Air Act
emission standards.
• CAA drove expansion of western
low-sulfur coal, especially in
Wyoming (cheaper to burn low-
sulfur coal, then to scrub the
sulfur out post-combustion
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The US has a lot of coal left
Based on U.S. coal production in 2017 of about 0.78 billion short tons,
national recoverable coal reserves would last about 325 years (but
subject to change)…
Six states had 77% of the demonstrated reserve base
(DRB) of coal as of January 1, 2018:

Montana—25%
Illinois—22%
Wyoming—12%
West Virginia—6%
Kentucky—6%
Pennsylvania—6%

Twenty five other states had the remaining 23% of the

DRB.

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 Underground mining is used to reach coal
typically 200 – 1000 ft deep

Note: this is not how most mining looks anymore! Most

production is automated with big machines
http://www.undergroundminers.com/ EIA

• “deep mining”
• miners ride elevators down deep mine shafts where they run machines that dig out
the coal; although much is automated now, it is still very dangerous
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Underground mining uses three
main methods: longwall,
continuous, and conventional
Longwell Mining
Image: energynews.com/
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
8/31/2020
• Longwall mining uses an automated cutting machine, and
the broken coal is transported to the surface on a conveyor
system. Roof supports are moved as the machine
advances, allowing the roof to fall once an area is mined
out. Longwall mining has high recovery and extraction rates
and is the most productive type of underground mining, but
it can only be used in flat, thick, and uniform coalbeds.
• Continuous mining is a form of mining called room and
pillar mining, in which a continuous mining machine extracts
and removes coal from the working face in one step with no
blasting required. Pillars of coal are left to support the roof
between areas where coal is mined.
• Conventional mining is a form of room and pillar mining
that consists of three steps: cutting the coal, blasting the
coal, and then loading the broken coal. This category also
includes other miscellaneous mining methods, such as
shortwall, scoop loading, and hand loading.
Conventional Room and Pillar Mining
(right)
Image: www.mining.com/
Continuous Mining (below)
Image: www.miningmagazine.com/
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Surface mining is typically used when coal is
located at depths <200 ft
• used to produce most of the coal in the US because it is cheaper than
underground mining.
• Is used when the coal is < than 200 feet underground
• giant machines remove the top soil and layers of rock known as "overburden"
exposing coal seam, then dirt and rock are replaced and topsoil is replaced

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 There are three major types
of surface mining
• Strip mining is a method used on flat terrain and involves removing soil or
rock above a layer of coal, exposing the coal seam for mining. One type of
strip mining is contour mining, where extraction activities occur on a
hillside. Another method, area mining, occurs on relatively flat terrain. Area strip mining in WY
Contour strip mining accounted for more than half of the surface mine Image: USGS
closures between 2008 and 2017.
• Open-pit coal mining is a combination of contour and area mining
methods and is used to mine thick, steeply inclined coalbeds. In contrast to
other forms of mining, open pit mines increased in number from 2008 to
2017, but production levels still fell.
• Mountaintop mining is sometimes considered a variation of contour
mining and involves removing the mountaintop, or the overburden (rock or
soil overlying a mineral deposit), which creates a level plateau or gently
rolling contour and exposes entire coal seams running through the upper
portion of a mountain. Mountaintop mines are relatively few in number
compared with contour strip, open pit, and area mines. Production levels at Strip (Contour) mining in KY
mountaintop mines are similarly small.
Image: KY division of mine permits

Open Pit (area) Strip mining (Auger

Mining in WY Mining, typically follows
contour mining) in PA
Image: Bureau of Land Image: auger.blogdetik.com/
Management

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 Mountaintop removal is typically the most
environmentally disruptive
• mountaintop removal (MTR)- entire
coal seams running through the upper
portion of a mountain are mined by
removing all of the overburden,
creating a plateau or gently rolling
contour.
• A permit must be granted for
mountaintop removal
– An additional permit must be granted for
a “valley fill” (i.e. overburden deposited
in intermittent or perennial streams)
• West Virginia accounts for most
domestic MTR production, and MTR
production makes up most of the
surface production in the state (61% in
2013).
• ENVIRONMENTAL IRONY: MNT
Removal took off in the 90’s after we
passed amendments to the CWA to
reduce acid rain because it was the
cheapest way to get low Sulphur coal
from shallow coal seams!

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Surface mining disrupts ecosystems

Mountain top removal in West Virginia

Image: news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/03/100311-mountaintop-mining-west-virginia/

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 A building

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Image: portside.org 19
 MTR in KY
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mountainroadshow.com 20
 http://www.mining-technology.com
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 Mountain top removal devastates the
environment and public health
• Has destroyed 500 mountaintops in West Virginia,
Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee [source: Appalachian
Voices]
• Has buried more miles of stream than the entire length
of the Mississippi River [EPA]
• Streams impacted by MTR “have less than half as many
fish species and about a third as many fish as non-
impacted streams,” [USGS]
• Source of air pollution from coal dust in air and via coal
processing. Also major source of water pollution
• People living near mountaintop mines suffer
disproportionately from serious health problems,
including increased cardiovascular disease, lung and Image: Appalachian Voices
other types of cancer, chronic heart, lung, and kidney Associated with 1200 excess deaths per year of
diseases, birth defects, and overall mortality, even after people living in adjacent communities (note: not
they controlled for factors such as poverty, smoking, including health impacts to the miners
obesity, education, race, and metropolitan setting. themselves) [Hendryx et. al]
[Hendryx et. al, via hwr.org]
• Public water treatment facilities in West Virginia from
Read more: https://e360.yale.edu/features/a-
2001-09 and found that mountaintop removal counties
troubling-look-at-the-human-toll-of-mountaintop-
had over five times the number of Safe Drinking Water removal-mining
Act violations [Hendryx et. al, 2012]

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 Isn’t this regulated?!?
Examples of federal laws that regulate mining in some way
Surface Mining Control Establishes a program for the regulation of surface mining activities and the reclamation of
• US Department of the and Reclamation Act coal-mined lands, under the administration of the Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation and
Interior (DOI) Enforcement, in the Department of the Interior.
oversees mining National Environmental Requires all federal agencies to go through a formal process before taking any action
• Trump administration Policy Act (NEPA) anticipated to have substantial impact on the environment

canceled a half- Clean Air Act (CAA) Regulates sources of air emissions
completed federally-
funded study the Resource Conservation Creates framework for the proper management of hazardous and non-hazardous solid waste
and Recovery Act (RCRA)
National Academy of
Sciences was
Clean Water Act (CWA) Establishes basic structure for regulating discharges of pollutants into the waters of the United
conducting on the States and regulating quality standards for surface waters
potential health
effects of surface Toxic Substances Provides EPA with authority to require reporting, record-keeping and testing requirements, and
Control Act (TSCA) restrictions relating to chemical substances and/or mixtures.
mining in central
Appalachia Comprehensive Provides a Federal "Superfund" to clean up uncontrolled or abandoned hazardous-waste sites
Environmental as well as accidents, spills, and other emergency releases of pollutants and contaminants into
Response, the environment
Compensation, and
Liability Act (CERCLA)
Federal Land Policy and Governs the way in which the public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management
Management Act are managed

Endangered Species Act Provides a framework to conserve and protect endangered and threatened species and their
habitats.

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2/2017: the House and Senate voted to repeal the
so-called “stream protection rule”
Stream Protection Rule under the U.S. Clean Water Act
• Enacted by DOI in 2016 required mining
companies to monitor and restore streams
polluted by their activities
• Congress got rid of it in Trump Administration
• What did the 2008 version of the rule do?
• First: limits dumping waste and debris in
surrounding ecosystems.
• Second: companies & regulators have to 1)
assess what nearby ecosystems look like
before mining, 2) monitor affected streams
during mining, and 3) develop restoration plan
• Toxic metals can have dire health impacts for the
people and mostly rural communities living nearby.
• Easier to kill than most of the other Obama-era rules
around coal pollution.

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 Mountaintop removal of coal is in decline

Total surface production decreased about 21%

• mountaintop removal decreased 62% over this period.

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 After mining, coal is processed to increase heating value and
reduce emissions during power generation
• Coal from mine goes on a
conveyor belt to a preparation
plant located at the extraction
site.
• Coal is typically blended,
screened, crushed, washed and
dewatered to remove other rocks
and dirt, ash, sulfur, and
unwanted materials
– creates a very dirty waste
product! (see next slide)
– Coal washing can remove 50%-
80% of ash and 30%-40% of
total sulfur
– Moisture is removed to upgrade
its heating value
• Coal waste spills happen

Top: Source National Geographic (link below)

Bottom: Waste from the Kingston Coal Ash Slurry Spill in 2008 in
Tennessee (Source:UCS)

Read more about spill:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/02/coal-
other-dark-side-toxic-ash/#close

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 Coal slurry is a waste product after processing
coal that is very toxic
• Coal slurry (also “sludge”)- waste fluid produced by
washing coal with water and chemicals prior to
shipping the coal to market.
• Coal Sludge Impoundment- most common and
cheapest method of disposing coal waste;
impoundments/dams can store billions of gallons of
coal sludge.
– Typically built next to coal processing plant Brushy Fork coal slurry impoundment
Location: Whitesville, WV
– Most are not lined Max Capacity: 9 billion gallons of sludge.
Source: sludgesafety.org/
– Once an impoundment fills with fine slurry particles
and is abandoned, remaining water is pumped off and
the slurry is "capped" with a layer of coarse refuse.
– millions of tons of coal ash are piled up in 1,400
unlined landfills and ponds around the U.S [natgeo]
– Coal slurry impoundments can range from 10s of
millions to billions of storage capacity each
• Kingston Coal Ash Spill: 5.4 million cubic yards of
sludge were released from a 57-foot earthen dike at
Kingston
Coal sludge pond near Whitesburg,
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Location: Letcher County KY
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Source: http://mountainroadshow.com/
About 70% of coal delivered in the US is
transported to market by train

According to the
Association of American
Railroads, coal accounted
for 31% of originated
tonnage for US Class I
railroads in 2018 (far
more than any other
commodity). It accounted
for 16 % of total railroad
revenues for Class I
railroads.

https://www.aar.org/wp-
content/uploads/2018/05/AAR-
Railroads-Coal.pdf

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Most coal is consumed by producing country
because it is not viewed as a “valuable” fuel
• International trade of Top 10 coal importers and exporters
coal only accounts for
about 15% of coal
consumption
• Over the last twenty
years:
– seaborne trade in
steam coal has
increased on average
by about 7% each year
– seaborne coking coal
trade has increased by
1.6% a year.
Data: http://www.worldstopexports.com/
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 What is coal used for?

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In US, 93% of coal is consumed for electricity
generation; it is also used in industry
• Used to generate ~28% of US
electricity in the power sector in 2018
• Used for steel production by baking
coal to make coke, which is used to
smelt iron ore
• Also used in concrete and paper
industry Raw coke made from
heating coal without air
• Separated ingredients of coal (such as
methanol and ethylene) are used in
making plastics, tar, synthetic fibers,
fertilizers, and medicines.

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Coal Has Merits and Drawbacks
• Merits of coal:
– Abundant
– Cheap, and less volatile in price
than oil and gas
– Easy to transport store
• Drawbacks of coal:
– significant land disturbance for its
extraction
– carbon intensive
– Pollutes water, air, land
– coal is nature’s Brita carbon filter
• burning coal releases trapped
pollutants, such as sulfur,
mercury, heavy metals

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 US trends in coal

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The US produces more coal than it consumes; most coal is
burned in power plants because it is cheap (and easier to clean
up in power plants than in other applications)

Coal is used for:

• Energy: mostly electricity, but also heat for
industrial and commercial
• Metallurgical material: coke for steel & iron
• 1 US Ton = 2000 lbs.
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Coal is primarily used for electric power; U.S. coal-fired
electricity generation in 2019 fell to 42-year low

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Coal consumption has seen a rapid
decline in recent years… and it is
expected to continue

U.S. renewable energy consumption surpasses coal for

the first time in over 130 years

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Decreases in energy-related CO2 in the US are
an artifact of retiring coal-fired power plants

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So what factors have led to the decline of US
coal?
Other
(e.g.
enviro…

Growth in
renewable Competition
energy from cheap
18% natural gas
Lower than 49%
expected
demand
growth
26%
Link to report from:

Competition from cheap natural gas

Lower than expected demand growth
Growth in renewable energy
Other (e.g. environmental regs)
https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/def
ault/files/Center%20on%20Global%20Ener
gy%20Policy%20Can%20Coal%20Make%20
a%20Comeback%20April%202017.pdf

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Coal’s decline is a real problem for many US
communities
Employment in Coal Mining, National, Western U.S. and
Eastern U.S. (FTE: Full-Time Equivalent)
Figures: C. Kolstad, Stanford
• Despite great expansion in coal
production over the past half
century, coal employment has
declined as productivity per miner
has increased and demand has
decreased
• Most of the coal comes from West
(surface-mining dominant), but
majority of jobs are in the East
(underground mining dominant)

The number of coal mining jobs

dropped 12% to 43,800 in April 2020;
pandemic is accelerating coal’s decline

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 “The railroad blockade began in late
July, about a month after Blackjewel,
the two-year-old company where the
miners worked, suddenly declared
bankruptcy. Blackjewel owned mines in
four states, and employed over a
thousand miners in central
Appalachia.” - NYtimes

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 It is important that retiring coal mines and coal-fired power
plants remediate their land, but bankruptcies are challenging

Decommissioning - electric-generating equipment—such as precipitators, boilers, turbines, and generators—are shut down and
operating permits are terminated. Unused coal and materials associated with both the generation process and the buildings and
structures are removed. The electric-generating equipment may be used at other plants or sold as scrap.

Remediation - cleaning up hazardous materials to meet federal and state requirements. Remediation of coal combustion residuals
(CCR) (“coal ash”) is the primary focus in coal plant decommissioning because it is one of the largest US industrial waste streams. CCR
can be disposed in onsite landfills or surface impoundments, known as coal ash ponds. CCR also can be moved offsite to be recycled
into products such as concrete or wallboard.

Redevelopment of a decommissioned coal-fired plant may involve repurposing the site for another generation technology or some other
commercial, industrial, or municipal application. Coal-fired power plants typically occupy land in or near downtown areas or along rivers,
and they usually have access to railways, roadways, water, sewers, and other infrastructure. Repowering a plant with natural gas-fired
technology, such as a combined-cycle natural gas turbine plant, requires significantly less space than coal-fired configurations, which
could cover hundreds of acres. Repowering a former coal-fired plant with natural gas-fired elements is a viable option for power
providers because much of the critical infrastructure is already in place, including transmission lines, substations, and water.

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In the US, coal must innovate or it isn’t going to
survive
Pre-trump policies: Trump-era policies
• August 2015: President Obama • Trump’s EPA rewrites Obama’s Clean Power Plan
announces the final rule of his Clean • The final rule empowers states to develop performance
standards for plants based on assumptions about the
Power Plan that aims to advance new kind of efficiency gains (heat-rate improvements) that
regulations on power plants to account for can be realized by plugging duct leaks, installing
carbon emissions and spur clean energy advanced soot blowers and making other upgrades at
innovation the sites.
– first-ever national standards that • State regulators also will be able to consider the age
address carbon pollution from power and remaining useful life of power plants in tailoring
plants requirements for individual facilities.
– 4.3 million comments EPA received on • Let the lawsuits begin!
the proposed rule.
– essentially requires new coal plants to
use carbon capture and sequestration or
not be built at all.
– Advanced natural gas plants meet
regulation
• Statewide goals are monitored in three
forms:
– A rate-based state goal in pounds of The number of coal mining jobs
CO2 per megawatt hour dropped 12% to 43,800 in April 2020;
– A mass-based state goal measured in pandemic is accelerating coal’s decline
total short tons of CO2
– A mass-based state goal with a new
source complement measured in total
short tons of CO2
• Let the lawsuits begin!

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 World trends in coal
Trends in developing countries will largely control the
use of coal going forward.

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World trends in coal
• Globally coal consumption accounts for ~40% of
electricity generation and more than 40% of energy-
related carbon dioxide emissions.
• Coal demand grew 1.1% in 2018 due to increased power
generation demand, but fell slightly in 2019
• Coal production grew 3.3% in 2018, driven by growth
• Over next five years, coal demand is anticipated to be
stable, due to stable demand in the Chinese market,
which is ~ half global consumption (although Chinese
policies for climate + cheaper natural gas might lower
demand)

(from IEA, 2019 Coal Report; Note, that 2019 IEA

projections were prior to COVID-19 crisis)

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Asia is driving coal consumption growth

• China continues to be the major consumer of coal worldwide, with its 2,866 mtce comprising 53.0% of the global share.
• India follows in second place with 585 mtce, 0.4% less than last year.
• The United States and the European Union are the leaders of the coal phase-out; they both set historical minimum consumption in 2019 but
are still the 3rd and 4th global coal consumers in the world, with 397 mtce and 253 mtce, respectively. Chine, India, US, and EU account for
three quarters of the global coal consumption. Indonesia’s coal consumption hit a historical maximum in 2019 at 115 mtce.

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The US and the EU are in the midst of a phase out
(after being the dominant coal burners for a century)
World coal consumption variation, 2018-2019 provisional (Data: IEA)

“With the global economy slowing down and the widespread objective of having less carbon-intensive power
generation in the face of pollution and environmental concerns, coal consumption fell in 2019. The depth and
combination of those dynamics in the many economies of the world were different and consequently the coal market
reacted differently: major Asian economies such as China and Indonesia increased their coal consumption whilst the
United States, the European Union and India decreased their consumption.” - IEA
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 China is #1 in coal production: Huge population + huge
reserves

• Total world coal production increased by 1.5% in 2019, half the growth rate of the previous years.
• Asia produced what Europe and US did not (extra Chinese production equaled the drop in EU+US production). China, the world’s biggest coal
producer, remains at 4% annual growth rate, at 3,693 Mt in 2019.
• India reduced production for the first time this century and only for the second in history. In 2019, production in India amounted to 769 Mt, 0.9%
less than in the previous year, due mainly to a decrease in coal-fired power generation impacted by higher hydro generation.
• Indonesia continues ramping up its production, +12.4% in 2019, the highest growth rate since 2016, when it returned to positive year on year
changes
• The United States continues the falling production trend that started at the beginning of the century, reaching 640 Mt in 2019, the lowest level
seen in four decades.
• The European Union also saw its deepest decrease in coal production ever in 2019, down by 68 Mt or 15.4%. The main actors of this are Germany,
Poland and Greece, with year on year falls of -38, -10 and -9 Mt respectively. Furthermore, Spain stopped its coal production in 2019.

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Over time, richer countries are phasing out coal,
while developing countries have expanded
Coal's breakdown by activity for selected economies in MT, 1978-2018 (IEA)

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Despite Paris Climate Change Accord, global
coal demand is projected to rise into the future,
albeit at a slow rate

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The world has a lot of coal… the climate
can’t afford to burn it

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China has nearly half the world’s existing coal
capacity

Source: Carbon brief

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If we don’t burn it, will someone else?
• Global coal power generation capacity grew in every
year between 2000 and 2018, nearly doubling from
1,066 GW to 2,024 GW.
• Bad news: Coal represents nearly 40% of the world’s
electricity, close to its highest share in decades.
• Good news: After a period of extraordinary growth,
worldwide coal plant construction has slowed rapidly
due

Report Source: Carbon Brief

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Outcomes of Coal Projects Under
Development, 2010–2014
Since 2010, two plants
have been shelved or
cancelled worldwide for
every plant completed
Report Source: Shearer et al. (2015) “Boom and bust: Tracking the global coal plant
pipeline”

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Future policies affecting energy usage in China (the
world’s largest coal producer and exporter) will impact
global trajectories for coal
• China’s (world’s biggest coal producer and consumer) consumption
expected to plateau around 2022 and then starts to decline slowly.
• Stronger-than-expected electricity consumption and infrastructure
development have pushed coal use up in the last few years.
• IEA projects decline in coal use in the residential and small industrial
sectors continues because of air pollution concerns; coal use in
heavy industry also expected to drop.
• IEA forecast anticipates China’s coal power generation growing,
although at a slowing rate. (Coal’s share of the power generation
mix is expected to fall from 67% in 2018 to 59% in 2024.)
• These projects could be largely affected by policies and targets that
will be included in the Chinese government’s 14th five-year plan (to
be released in 2020).

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India’s coal demand will greatly impact global
projections
• India aims to become an economy of USD 5 trillion by 2024, in
part by investing heavily in infrastructure, boosting energy
demand for industry and, especially, for electricity production.
• Country’s per capita power consumption is still low
• Power generation from renewables is forecast to expand
strongly, with wind capacity doubling and solar photovoltaics
(PV) increasing fourfold between 2018 and 2024 (coal
generation still expected to increase by 4.6% per year through
2024).
• Overall, India’s coal demand is expected to grow by more than
that of any other country, in absolute terms, over the forecast
period (IEA, 2019 Coal Report)

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 There can be tensions between
climate change mitigation strategies
and economic development… but
renewables are getting cheaper

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Projections suggest coal will continue to grow

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 Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental
Engineering
ktsanders@usc.edu
 Supplementary

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Natural Gas is taking over coal in the power
sector and its good for emissions (we think…)
Percent of Total US Power
Generation by Year
Period Coal NG
2006 49% 20%
2007 49% 22%
2008 48% 21%
2009 44% 23%
2010 45% 24%
2011 42% 25%
2012 37% 30%
2013 39% 28%
2014 39% 28%
2015 33% 33%

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Emissions from coal
and NG have
switched in recent
years

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Coal’s share of the U.S. electricity generation
mix was 48% in 2008; it has since fallen to
28% in 2018

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 Lots of coal-fired capacity has retired in recent
years
• From 2010 - first quarter of
2019, US power companies
announced the retirement of
>546 coal-fired power units
(totaling ~ 102 GW of
generating capacity).
• Plant owners intend to retire
another 17 GW of coal-fired
capacity by 2025
• US coal units that retired in
2018:
• average capacity of 350
megawatts (MW)
• average age of 46 years,
• US coal units that retired in
2018:
• average capacity of 129 MW
• average age of 56 years for
the coal units that retired in
2015.

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