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Quantified Risk Assessment For Plants Producing and Storing Explosives
Quantified Risk Assessment For Plants Producing and Storing Explosives
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of plants producing and storing explosives. The major
procedural steps for quantified risk assessment (QRA) in explosive plants are the following: hazard identification, accident
sequence modeling, data acquisition, accident sequence quantification, consequence assessment and integration of results.
This methodology is demonstrated and applied in an explosive plant consisting of four separate units, which produce
detonating cord, nitroglycol, dynamites and ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO). A GIS platform is used for depicting
individual risk from explosions in this plant. Total individual risk is equal to 1.0 × 10−4 /y in a distance of 340m from the
center of the plant, and 1.0 × 10−6 /y in a distance of 390m from the center of the plant.
Keywords: Risk assessment, explosives, master logic diagram, hazard identification, QRA.
injection type of Meissner process, where nitric acid are packed and stored in lots of 25 kg.
and oleum are used as nitric agent in a continuous and ANFO Production
cooled reactor. Nitroglycol produced in the reactor is ANFO is a blasting agent (low explosive) and is
separated from spent acids in a stirred tank with cen- based on ammonium nitrate, fuel oil and additions. It
trifugal separators, washed with water and stabilized is produced by mixing fuel oil and ammonium nitrate
with sodium carbonate. Finally nytroglycol is sepa- in a stirred mixer.
rated from water and transported to a stirred tank as
a stable emulsion. 3 Assessment of plant-damage states
and their frequency of occurrence
In the first phase of a QRA the possible damage
states of the plant along with the accident sequences
that can cause them are determined. Next, the fre-
quency with which the occurrences of such states are
expected is assessed.
Table 1 Storage capacity of various magazines, production units and transfer routes
Build.# Explosive Type Mass (kg) in Build.# Explosive Mass (kg) in Route Transfer route/ Mass (kg)
storage Type production Explosive type in transit
6 Dynamites 14700 12 Det. Cord 400 68-2 Dynamites a) 1400
7 Dynamites 14700 13 Det. Cord 400 b) 4000
8 Dynamite 8150 14 Det. Cord 400 2-GATE Dynamites a) 1400+5600
15 Det. Cord 5000 25 Det. Cord 400 +ANFO b) 4000+16000
26 Dry PETN 400 45 Dynamite 400
23 Dry PETN 400 46 Dynamite 400
44 Nitroglycol 1500 60 Dynamite 400
50 Fuses 200 61 Dynamite 400
56 Dynamites 12400 67 Dynamite 400
58 Dynamites 12400 68 Dynamite 400
2 ANFO 400
feeding stops and the sequence is characterized as safe. frequency assessment plant-damage states
An explosion will occur if both operator and sensor fail
to detect the situation, owing to the resulting suppres- Determination of the frequency of the various plant
sion and friction of the dough. damage states has been done in two ways.
First all the event trees developed in the previ-
ous phase have been quantified through the use of
generic frequencies, hardware failure probabilities and
human error probabilities. Specific installation data
was not available. Once this was completed frequencies
of plant-damage states were determined by adding the
frequencies of the corresponding accident sequences.
Perusal of the identified accident sequences and their
respective frequencies identified areas where potential
Fig. 3 Event tree for the initiating event “high level of improvements were possible, as for example, by adding
dough in feeding Hopper” an automated control system or changing the proce-
dures.
Since the installation had access to the accident
Accident sequences are next grouped into plant records of similar installations worldwide and for a
damage states. A plant damage state uniquely char- substantial number of years, a simple statistical es-
acterizes the installation with respect to the extreme timation of the frequency of explosion has been per-
phenomenon that may follow the damage. In the case formed for each plant-damage state, for each location
of explosives a damage state determines the location, of the installation where explosive material is stored
quantity and type of explosive substance involved in an or processed. The frequencies of explosion in various
explosion, along with the type of structure that may units of the plant are the presented in Table 3. Only
surround the explosive mass. accidents involving similar installations have been con-
In the analyzed installation, the explosion of the sidered. They were based on a collective operating ex-
quantities of explosive substances identified as haz- perience of about 700 plant years covering a period of
ardous also constitutes a potential damage state for the ten years prior to the time of the analysis. For assess-
installation. There are as many plant damage states as ing the frequency of explosion in a) the production of
substantial quantities of explosive material shown in ANFO, b) the storage phase of all materials, and c)
Table 1, since each entry in Table 1 differs from the the transportation of explosives, the ten year calcula-
other in at least one of the characteristics of a damage tion base was not adequate as there were no accidents
state, namely quantity, type of material, location and in this period. Consequently, the data basis had been
surrounding structure. expanded to 40 years prior to the time of the analysis
Explosives are transferred from the production even though the types of explosive materials methods
units to the main gate of the plant. Two transfer routes and condition of storage had not been the same for this
have been considered, as presented in Table 1. extended period of time.
One route is taken from the dynamite production
to the ANFO production and a second is taken from Table 3 Frequency of explosion in units of the
the ANFO production to the main gate. In the first installation (year−1 )
route, only dynamites are transferred, while in the sec- Dynamite Mixing (Bldg. 45) 6.0×10−3
Dynamite Cartridging ( Bldg. 46, 60 & 61) 1.1×10−2
ond both dynamites and ANFO. The quantity of explo-
Packing of dynamites (Bldg. 67 & 68) 5.0×10−3
sives in each load varies, according to the production Drying of PETN (Bldg. 23) 4.0×10−3
planning of the plant. Two cases have been considered Spinning of PETN (Bldg. 13 &14) 3.0×10−3
for both routes as follows: a) 1400 kg of dynamites are Coating Detonating Cord with PVC (12 & 25) 6.0×10−3
transferred from their production unit (#68) to the ANFO production (Bldg. 2) 9.0×10−4
Dynamite or Detonating Cord Storage
ANFO production unit (#2) where 5600 kg of ANFO (Bldg. 6, 7, 8, 15, 26, 50, 56, 58) 4.5×10−4
are added to the same load b) 4000 kg of dynamites Storing of Nitroglycol (Bldg. 44) 3.0×10−3
are transferred from unit #68 to unit #2, where 16000 Transportation of explosives 2.0×10−3
kg of ANFO are added to the load. The first transfer
occurs three times per day, while the second once per Comparison of the event tree quantification with
month. the statistically derived frequencies of explosion indi-
cated that the two independent calculations were in
3.4 Accident sequence quantification and good agreement. For example, quantification of all the
188 International Journal of Automation and Computing 2 (2006) 184-191
accident sequences (from the event trees) leading to a In general consequences from major accidents in-
detonation in the building where the detonating cord is volving hazardous materials can be quantified in four
covered with PVC gave a total frequency of explosion of major steps:
9×10−3 /year. This compares very well with the statis-
tically derived frequency of 6×10−3/year. Given that 4.1 Determination of release categories of
the event trees have been quantified using generic data explosives
from all types of industries that might not be applica- A release category for explosives defines all neces-
ble in this type of installation, the statistically derived sary conditions that uniquely determine the level of
frequencies of Table 3 were eventually used in the qual- overpressure at each point in the area around the explo-
ification of risk. sive source. In this case, each plant damage state corre-
The frequency of explosion of all transfer routes has sponds to a single release category. The location, quan-
been estimated to be 2.0×10−3/year. In this plant tity and the type of the explosive material uniquely de-
there are two kinds of transfers, those with high fre- termine the extreme phenomenon, overpressure, at any
quency, three times per day, consisting of 7000 kg of point in the surrounding space. The release categories
explosives (1400 kg dynamites+5600 kg ANFO) and are provided given in Table 1.
those with low frequency, once per moth, consisting
of 20000 kg of explosives (4000kg dynamites+16000 4.2 Estimation of peak overpressure
kg ANFO). Therefore the following frequencies of ex-
plosion have been considered a) 1.9×10−3/year, con- In this step, a model for simulating the peak over-
sisting of 1400 kg dynamites+5600 kg ANFO b) pressure resulting from the released explosive material
1.0×10−4/year, consisting of 4000 kg dynamites+16000 and the associated physical phenomenon is established.
kg ANFO. Next the peak overpressure is calculated.
It has been considered that an explosion might oc- Overpressure by an explosion of explosives at dis-
cur at various points of the transfer routes. The fre- tance R is given by the following equation[6]
quency of explosion at each point is equal to the fre- P = [1 − (C1 + C2 )]k 1/n [R/W 1/3 ]−1/n (1)
quency of explosion divided by the number of points.
Ten possible explosion points have been considered in where
the first route (from the dynamite production unit to P is overpressure in bar
the ANFO production unit, #68→#2) and five pos- R is the distance from the explosion in m
sible explosion points in the second route (from the W is the TNT equivalent mass in kg, which is equal
ANFO production unit to the gate, #2→gate). There- to
∆He
fore the following explosions have been considered: W =m
∆HT N T
1) 10 explosion points in the first route with fre-
quency 1.27×10−4/year and mass 1400 kg dynamite m mass of explosive
2) 5 explosion points in the second route with fre- ∆HT N T , ∆He : heat of explosion for TNT and the
quency 1.27×10−4/year and mass 1400 kg dynamite particular explosive
and 5600 kg ANFO C1 = 0.3 if the explosives are protected with barri-
3) 10 explosion points in the first route with fre- cades
quency 6.67×10−6/year and mass 4000 kg dynamite C2 = 0.3 if the receptor is protected with barricades
C1 = C2 = 0 if there are no protection barricades
4) 5 explosion points in the second route with fre-
quency 6.67×10−6/year and mass 4000 kg dynamite Parameters k, n depend on the produced overpres-
and 16000 kg ANFO sure and are given in the following table[6] :
where td is the duration of the shock wave, the time Po = Probit = a + b ∗ ln{D} (7)
period where the pressure is greater than the at-
where the values of a, b depend on the type of injury
mospheric Po , (P (t) > Po ) as calculated by the fol-
and for whole body displacement are a = 5, b = −2.44,
lowing equations[7]
D is the received dose estimated from equation (6) and
td = 10.23W 1/3/Ps1/2 if Ps < 70bar (3) Po is the probability of fatality.
1/3
td = 20.77W /Ps2/3 if Ps > 70bar (4)
4.6 Risk integration
where
W is the TNT equivalent mass in kg Integration of the results obtained so far, that is,
Ps : peak overpressure in bar. combining the frequencies of the various accidents with
td : duration of the shock wave in millisec the corresponding consequences, results in the quantifi-
The impulse is then approximated to cation of risk. Individual fatality risk is a risk measure
usually used to quantify risk.
1
Id = td · Ps (5) 4.6.1 Individual risk
2
where Individual fatality risk is defined as the “frequency
Is : impulse (probability per unit of time) that an individual at a
Ps : peak overpressure specific location (x,y) relative to the installation(s) will
td : duration of the shock wave die as a result of an accident in the installation”. It is
Alternatively, the impulse can be directly estimated usually expressed per unit of time (e.g. per year) of
by parametric equations given in [8] and [9]. installation operation. Individual fatality risk is calcu-
lated as follows.
4.4 Dose from overpressure
Let
The integrated, over time, exposure of an individ- i be an index, spanning the space of the initiating
ual to the extreme phenomenon generated by the over- events. That is, of those events that have the potential
pressure determines the “dose” the individual receives to initiate an accident sequence. (i = 1, · · · , I)
and consequently the severity of the consequences. Any k be an index spanning the space of the possible
emergency response plan or other mitigation action is plant damage states of an installation. (k = 1, · · · , K).
taken into account at this point. r be an index spanning the space of the possi-
There are two kinds of blast effects to humans, ei- ble release categories of an explosive substance. (r =
ther direct injury to the eardrum and the lung or in- 1, · · · , R)
direct effects owing to fragments, whole body displace- fi be the frequency of the ith initiating event.
ment or building damage as described in greater detail
pki be the conditional probability that the ith ini-
in [10]. In case of building damage it is assumed that
tiating event will lead to the kth plant damage state.
people inside the buildings will not survive. In this pa-
fk be the frequency of the kth plant damage state.
per the calculated consequences are due to the whole
body displacement. It follows that
The dose depends on the two characteristics of X
I
shock wave, peak overpressure and impulse and also fk = fi pki . (8)
on the type of injury. For whole body displacement, a i=1
dose is given from the following equation[10] :
In this study the frequencies of plant damage states
7.28 × 103 1.3 × 109 have been estimated directly from historical data (see
D(x, y) = + (6)
Ps Ps Is Table 3)
where Furthermore, let
D(x, y): dose at point (x, y) fr be the frequency of the rth release category, and
Ps : peak overpressure in Pa. prk be the conditional probability that the kth plant
190 International Journal of Automation and Computing 2 (2006) 184-191
damage state will lead to the rth release category with Frequencies fi , conditional probabilities pki , and
frequencies fk are calculated in the first phase of the
X
R
analysis or are directly estimated (fk ) from past oper-
prk = 1.
r=1
ating experience.
Frequencies fr include all possible uncertainties in
It follows that the parameters that determine the level of an adverse
X
K X
K X
I
effect at a location (x, y) and at time t; consequences
fr = fk prk = prk fi pki . (9) cr (x, y, t), doses dr (x, y), and probability pr (x, y) are
k=1 k=1 i=1
calculated during the consequences estimation phase.
In this study each damage state can lead on to only
one type of explosion, hence fr = fk for each k 5 Risk integration and conclusions
Next let
Individual risk from all the units of the facility and
cr (x, y, t) be the intensity of the adverse effect, over-
all the transfer routes has been estimated. A GIS plat-
pressure, at point (x, y) and instant of time t, given
form has been used for presenting individual risk and
that release category r has occurred. Here cr (x, y, t) is
all relevant plant information such as: a) buildings and
equivalent to P (x, y, Ps , t) where P is the time depen-
magazines (storage warehouses), b) barricades of mag-
dent overpressure at point (x, y) and Ps its maximum
azines and other buildings, c) transfer routes within the
value.
plant, d) quantities of explosives manufactured, stored
dr (x, y) be the level of adverse exposure, thus the in-
and transported within the plant and their variability,
tegrated over time exposure to the adverse effect. This
e) frequency of explosion for each hazardous source, f)
quantity is commonly referred to as “dose” and it is
individual risk resulting from explosion of static explo-
calculated by
Z T sives, g) individual risk resulting from transfer of ex-
dr (x, y) = f {cr (x, y, t)}dt (10) plosions within the plant, and g) total individual risk
0 resulting from all possible explosions. Fig. 4 presents
total individual risk from the explosive plant. Risk is
where f {cr } is a substance dependent function.
In this application the dose for each plant-damage
state is determined as described in section 4.4. Here
the dose at a point (x, y) depends only on the distance
R between the source of the explosion and the point
(x, y) in question.
pd be the conditional probability of fatality given
that one individual is exposed to a level {d} of the
adverse effect of the hazardous material; it is usually
calculated through the so called “probit functions”[8] .
It follows that the quantity pr (x, y), the condi-
tional probability of fatality for an individual at loca-
tion (x, y) given release category r, can be calculated
form the doses as follows:
Release
Category
Explosion Dose Probit
r −→ cr (x, y, t) −→ dr (x, y) −→ pr (x, y). (11)