An Inquiry into COVID-19

Vaccine Distribution Among Seniors Age 65 Years and Older

in Downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, ZIP Codes as of

March 3rd, 2021

With a Question to Barriers in Understanding and/or Acceptance

(Has everyone 70+ in our wards gotten a vaccination if they want one?

If not, why not and how can we know?)

Respectfully Submitted,

John A Perazzo, BA

Mathematics, 1982

Member

City of Las Vegas

Senior Citizens’ Advisory Board

Representing Ward 5
 With continued gratitude, the Southern Nevada Health District (SNHD), has

released its latest COVID-19 vaccination distribution snapshot as of March 3rd, 2021.1

Of particular interest me and my position on the Nevada City of Las Vegas Senior

Citizens’ Advisory Board is the progress to completion of the vaccination of seniors in

Wards 1, 3, and 5. My recent discovery of the detailed statistics available at the

Healthy Southern Nevada organization website2 makes an inquiry into this data

hopeful. In this short paper, I intend to present what I have found with questions unable

to be answered from my present limited knowledge.

Last week, I wondered if a linear forecast model would be helpful for comparison

to this week’s data. This was my result.

The grey bar at the right of each age group is a linear forecast for March 2nd. After the

March 3rd report came out, I was able to update my chart to the following.
1
https://covid.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/vaccine/snapshot/ accessed 3/5/2021.
2
http://www.healthysouthernnevada.org/index.php?module=demographicdata&controller=index&action=index accessed
3/5/2021.
 Clearly, the jump in vaccinations can be seen in the age group 60 - 69 year olds

as the vaccine was made available to those 65 and older that week. The hindrance to

distribution because of the weather storm the previous week was noted in the subtitle

of the last chart.3 What is not so evident is the slight decrease in vaccinations among

those 70 and above as can be seen in the comparison chart below.

1st dose percent of population by date

Age Group Tue, Feb 9 Tue, Feb 16 Tue, Feb 23 Wed, Mar 3 Forecast 3/2 difference
00-19 0.18% 0.21% 0.24% 0.30% 0.28% 0.02%
20-29 5.40% 6.09% 6.67% 7.54% 7.41% 0.14%
30-39 7.22% 8.12% 8.88% 10.16% 9.86% 0.31%
40-49 8.99% 10.20% 11.20% 12.91% 12.51% 0.40%
50-59 8.99% 10.49% 11.63% 13.71% 13.19% 0.52%
60-69 8.94% 10.85% 13.71% 24.13% 16.28% 7.85%
70+ 38.36% 46.22% 50.48% 56.94% 58.00% -1.06%

3
[Forecast 3/2 by linear regression] (“Last week, severe weather across the country delayed shipment & receipt of more
than 46,000 #COVID19 vaccines meant for Nevada” (Gov. Sisolak, 2/22, Twitter).
 Have we reached the inflection point4 for the oldest age group for the downtown

wards as well? (I realize I’m using a calculus term for a linear regression, but the time I

can give to this project is limited.)

Age Group
Age Group 89101 89102 89104 89106 89107 89108 89110 Total
65-74 3,501 3,418 4,219 2,116 3,406 6,408 5,546 28,614
75-84 1,435 1,926 2,009 1,114 1,890 3,314 2,588 14,276
85+ 379 758 616 350 674 1,230 721 4,728
ZIP total 47,303 36,853 39,044 28,170 37,651 79,641 79,663 348,325
%∂ 2010 -
'21 4.52% 6.63% 7.17% 8.48% 4.46% 10.02% 10.65%

Las
Vegas?

4
A point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflection_point accessed 3/5/2021.
 Clark
County 2,327,613
%∂ 2010 -
'21 19.29%

Nevada 3,154,232
%∂ 2010 -
'21 16.80%

%∂ = Percent change5

Vaccination distribution density map by ZIP Codes in Clark County, NV.6

5
Source: http://www.healthysouthernnevada.org/index.php?module=demographicdata&controller=index&action=index
accessed 3/4/2021; by ZIP Codes
6
https://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/2021/March/vaccine/20210303-COVID-19-
Vaccine-Snapshot.pdf accessed 3/4/2021.
Downtown Las Vegas ZIP Code map7

Hot zones for county by cases, etc.8

7
https://files.clarkcountynv.gov/clarknv/Comprehensive%20Planning/Map/Miscellaneous%20Maps%20of%20Interest/Zipc
odesValley.pdf?t=1607027002405&t=1607027002405
8
http://covid.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/cases/ accessed 3/5/2021.
Race and Ethnic Considerations
 Race/Ethnicity 89101 89102 89104 89106 89107 89108 89110 Total
Hispanic/other/
15,529 11,932 11,669 6,821 10,020 19,490 27,474 102,935
difference
White 20,066 15,962 20,252 7,873 20,661 38,300 36,971 160,085
Black/African
7,259 3,545 2,788 10,284 2,805 12,753 6,647 46,081
American
Asian 1,549 3,031 1,941 1,181 1,488 3,058 3,867 16,115
American
Indian/Alaskan 590 243 398 176 342 708 576 3,033
Native
Multi Race 2,052 1,903 1,741 1,656 2,054 4,818 3,721 17,945
Native
Hawaiian/Pacific 258 237 255 179 281 514 407 2,131
Islander
sub-total 31,774 24,921 27,375 21,349 27,631 60,151 52,189 245,390

I had trouble understanding the Hispanic designation in the Race / Ethnicity tab of the

Healthy Southern Nevada demographics.9 For this reason, I grouped Hispanic and

other together and estimated the amount by subtracting the subtotal of the known

races and ethnicities from the total expected in that ZIP Code. This is not a

recommended method and I am willing to learn how to do it better.

Birth Sex

Because of the difference in morbidity among males and females, I include that

data here.

Birth Sex 89101 89102 89104 89106 89107 89108 89110 Total
Female 20,080 17,904 18,867 14,004 18,756 40,163 39,845 169,619
Male 27,223 18,949 20,177 14,166 18,895 39,478 39,818 178,706
total 47,303 36,853 39,044 28,170 37,651 79,641 79,663 348,325

9
http://www.healthysouthernnevada.org/demographicdata?id=25412&sectionId=940 accessed 3/5/2021
 In closing, I have not addressed the question of barriers to understanding or

acceptance. I wondered about a questionnaire, but the specific content escaped me.

I am cheering the process on. I believe everyone should have the opportunity to be

vaccinated if they want to. I do not know, though, if a person not getting vaccinated is

their choice or not. How can we know this?

(When I’m dealing blackjack, sometimes a player does not respond when it’s

their turn. I explain the same concept. “We offer choice. Are you choosing not to make

a choice or choosing to take a nap and not tell me?”)

Respectfully submitted,

John A Perazzo

Las Vegas, NV 89107

Email: bcc_jperazzo@lasvegasnevada.gov

Personal: Facebook @japerazzo

Twitter @jplvnv