By Bradley Redwine

IPR is not a real thing and is based solely on my own opinions. Ages are as of February 27, 2011.

The Injury Probability Report for 2011

Well, the 2011 season certainly got off to an interesting start. After an off-season of steady drama and
big name movement, Adam Wainwright kicks off the year with an exploding elbow. The Cardinals are in
a world of hurt right now, and sooner than later they will be joined by other clubs experiencing the
inevitable loss of personnel. Let’s take a look at some other candidates for injury as we head into the
fracas of fantasy baseball 2011.

IPR = Injury Probability Rank, on a scale of 1-10

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies

IPR: 7 Seems like it’s always something with Tulowitzki, but dang, when he’s in the game he
gets it done. Where he is going in the draft makes me want to look at other elite
Age Factor: 26 options that have a better chance of staying on the field. At the same time, the kind of
numbers he puts up from SS are ridiculous, so I can see why he’s going where he’s
going. Just some known risk.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

IPR: 6 It’s the nagging injury factor with Hanley, but in general he’s been able to stay on the
field better than most up the middle infielders. He just seems to pile up the dings,
Age Factor: 27 soreness in his wrist or a hamstring that just won’t fully cooperate. The numbers
debate and attitude are different discussions, but on the health front it’s something to
be aware of. With some of these top guys it’s just unavoidable that you’ll have to draft
players with some peripheral concerns.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox

IPR: 5 Gonzalez actually has been great with health throughout his career, but labrum surgery
on his power generating shoulder is reason for concern. Granted, he played through
Age Factor: 28 the injury last year and still put up great numbers in a bad hitters park. Love the bat,
love the team, love the ballpark, he’s primed for an epic year. Can’t look past the
surgery, but it seems like one of the few injury scenarios where it’s 100% worth the risk
considering his history and the highly probable uptick in his already very good
production.
 Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
IPR: 9 Just ask 2010 owners how much he helped them make it to the playoffs, then
disappear for a month when it mattered the most. Now, if he’s playing he could win
Age Factor: 29 you a championship, but I’d put it around 50/50 that he’s available for fantasy playoffs
after 100+ games. He’s not exactly young anymore, and as awesome of a player as he
is, the history of abuse that has happened to his body just can’t be ignored when
you’re playing at the most demanding level of a given sport. It’s a factor, it’s there, it
can’t be ignored, and besides the long-term health impact on the body, there is always
the outside chance of a relapse. All important factors to keep in mind when you’re
drafting in the first round, looking for a stable producer from start to finish.

Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies

IPR: 7 Muscle pulls and tweaks have started to pile up over the last few years, and Lee missed
some significant time last year. Constantly passed around the league over the last few
Age Factor: 32 years, he has apparently settled in with the Phillies. Unfortunately, his “small” injuries
in the core muscles and upper body area worry me, plus his home ballpark isn’t exactly
spacious.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals

IPR: 5 Zimmerman has had some wrist issues and a few sequences of nagging injuries. He’s
still young even though it feels like he’s been playing for 10 years. Third base isn’t
Age Factor: 26 exactly deep anymore, and he’s near the top of the list, so it may be one of those cases
where you just have to accept the risk to get an elite talent.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers

IPR: 10+ Along with Furcal, you can lock it up right now, he will be injured, he will miss time.
The difference is that Kinsler typically manages to hang around for the whole season
Age Factor: 28 and has streaks of usefulness. It’s usually pretty clear cut too; he won’t Nelson Cruz
you with missing a game here, and a chunk of 3 – 5 games there. Nope, it will usually
be a day or two leading into a straight forward trip to the DL.

Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

IPR: 8 The young Braves outfielder has a significant track record of injury, and with the hype
inflated price, I would really give it another year or so to see how his injury pattern is
Age Factor: 21 going to develop. I love the bat and he’s a great player, but I think there is reason to
be concerned with his ability to be in the lineup consistently.
 Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies
IPR: 8 Plays a physically demanding position with no DH option and he’s 32 now. Hip labrum
surgery prior to last year followed by a thumb injury that wouldn’t heal turned Utley’s
Age Factor: 32 2010 season into a lost cause. Word on the street is he is having “general leg
soreness” heading into spring games, which may or may not be a big deal. Yet another
guy who has a history of putting up great numbers from a tough position, but take into
account that he could be on the downslope.

Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals

IPR: 9 The St. Louis Cardinals are a Chris Carpenter away from being decimated and knocked
out of the playoffs before they play a single game in 2011. This guy’s history is not
Age Factor: 35 good, and he’s turning 36 in April. If I was LaRussa, I would be extremely concerned
with how my starting rotation will be looking in July.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers

IPR: 7 Had a career year in 2010, and that has a lot to do with the fact that it was the first
year in his career where he’s made it through healthy. Gigantic bat at 2B, but gigantic
Age Factor: 28 injury history that was swept under the rug for a year. Playing a full season will
undoubtedly bump his average draft position going into 2011, creating a possible
overpayment for the amount of production returned at the ADP. I’m extremely
skeptical that he’ll be able to get through two years in a row without a significant
injury.

Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins

IPR: 7 He’s got some things going on that can mess with a pitchers mechanics and delivery.
Granted, the guy is disgustingly good, but he’s had a little bit of the variety pack going
Age Factor: 27 on, with his shoulder being the most concerning. He’s someone I would probably have
less of a problem drafting around his ADP, because he showed that he can power
through some of his dings and still produce. He is coming off some surgical work, and
he definitely worries me in a season-long scenario, but I guess he’s just hypnotic
enough to draw me in, plus he gets the job done with the strikeouts. If he’s on the
mound as the season winds down he can be a major difference maker in the fantasy
playoffs.
 Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox
IPR: 6 Youkilis has experienced two season-ending injuries in the last two years, and he isn’t
exactly a spring chicken on the brink of turning 32. Another guy who I really like on the
Age Factor: 31 production side, but the injuries have killed his ability to produce, well… anything over
the last couple years. If he stays on the field, he could be a major force in that line-up
and in that ballpark. The definition of high risk/high reward.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers

IPR: 10+ Ahhhh, the Bob Sanders of baseball. The guy is great, loaded with talent at a thin
position, but his 283 games played against 486 possible games over the last 3 years is
Age Factor: 33 not exactly appealing. Do not want.

Joe Mauer, C, Twins

IPR: 5 Joe Sideburns creates some worry on the part of an owner, but with his market
correction from last year’s top 10 to his current ADP you can get him at a somewhat
Age Factor: 27 reasonable price. He has an aura of pending injury and a bit of a rep as injury prone.
However, Mauer has actually proven to be quite durable for a catcher, considering he
has played 137, 138, and 146 games over the last 3 years.

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers

IPR: 10 The ultimate head-to-head weekly roster killer. A game here, a game there, a DL stint
here, a DL stint there. Man, when he’s in the game he’s a difference maker. When
Age Factor: 30 he’s in the game and he’s healthy he is an absolute destroyer. In roto leagues with
daily roster changes, Nelson Cruz is not a bad play at all, and someone that I would be
willing to take in the range of full value, injuries or not. He’s one of the few guys where
it’s worth it if you can pull him on any given day.

Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles

IPR: 10 Brian Roberts played a total of 59 games in 2010, is age 33, and plays a high impact
position. With reports coming out of Spring Training that he is already have issues with
Age Factor: 33 his neck again, you can go ahead and can Mr. Roberts for 2011 and the foreseeable
future. If you draft him he’ll just be a pain in the neck. (Sorry, I couldn’t help it)
 Brett Anderson, SP, Athletics
IPR: 7 He’s young and he’s extremely talented, but his K rate isn’t overly exciting and he’s
already having health issues in areas of significant importance for pitchers. When he
Age Factor: 23 managed to play his numbers were solid, but until he stays healthy I'm passing. He’s
young enough and good enough to increase the strikeouts over time, but he needs to
play in order to continue the fine tuning. I think around 25 this guy will either
Duchscherer the Athletics or be a top tier starter.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers

IPR: 5 He’s got a little run going, and his finger injury early last year affected him for the
remainder. He still has the ability to go .300+ with power, and his injuries haven’t been
Age Factor: 28 overly devastating. At 28 years old he has a shot at turning around what’s starting to
turn into a rep as injury prone.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs

IPR: 9 Getting up there in age on top of the already existing history, Ramirez can always be
counted on for an in-season vacation. Will it be a 2-3 week deal, a month or two, or
Age Factor: 32 will this season be a higher magnitude scenario?

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies

IPR: 8 Older guy in a physically demanding position, with a single outstanding season under
his belt that resulted in an MVP award. Outside of that one year he has been decent,
Age Factor: 32 not a terrible option at SS. But the health stuff has really crept in the last few years,
and at some point his work on the base paths will be affected. Ever since he picked up
that MVP people have questioned his ability to get back to that level, and at age 32 I
think we can officially stop talking about that, it’s not gonna happen. He may have
something left in the tank, but I would rather go with Starlin Castro than Rollins, just
because I believe that Castro has a much better chance of making through the year
while still producing acceptable numbers from SS.
 Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
IPR: 6 I think the fact that he has been mentally warped in Chicago will ultimately impact his
ability to find a level of confidence and consistency. His manager, his team, his front
Age Factor: 24 office, and even Beckham himself have talked about the pressure that’s on him.
Ultimately that’s not why he’s on this list though. He’s on this list because he has had
some injuries, and with the amount of pressure that’s been placed on him I think he
tries to swing out of his shoes sometimes and it causes his ribcage/upper body issues.

Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles

IPR: 5 The master of the nagging injury, seems like there is always something small bothering
him. On top of that, you have the mental games associated with setting the MLB
Age Factor: 27 strikeout record, then outdoing yourself the next year. Just some volatility here that
may not be worth the power. If your league holds you accountable for K’s on the
offensive side, he’s a must pass, and even if you aren’t dinged for K’s his average puts
you in danger in that department as well. Depending on your leagues scoring
categories, the trickledown effect from the K’s and batting average can do damage in
other areas as well. Until some level of consistency is displayed, I would just steer
clear.

Andrew Bailey, RP, Athletics

IPR: 7 Puts up awesome numbers at the back end for Oakland, but the track record isn’t the
greatest and he’s coming off elbow surgery. On top of that, the saves factor is in play,
Age Factor: 26 he’s just not going to get as many chances with the Athletics. Issues with his legs and
knees earlier in his career should be noted as well.

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox

IPR: 10 I think that for the most part the fantasy baseball world is hip to his game by now. His
flashes of brilliance in Arizona and Chicago, were just that, flashes. Zero consistency
Age Factor: 28 along with a parade of injuries have made Quentin a complete non-factor in fantasy.
He can’t fall far enough for me to draft him in any format.
 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
IPR: 8 Oh, those ribs. Ellsbury obviously brings a heavy dose of roto value with his speed, but
he’s sketchy for sure. He’s still pretty young at 27, but I would generally pass unless it
Age Factor: 27 was the right pick at the right time. There’s enough outfielders out there where you
can afford to just work around him.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

IPR: 8 Oh, the foot. Yeah, it makes for an interesting case. He is pretty steady putting up
numbers when he’s playing, but he is on a tough streak. He’s still young enough where
Age Factor: 27 there’s a decent chance that he does overcome his previous issues, so I don’t think it’s
all bad to take a stab at a high end 2B if he’s available at the right spot. The big picture
issue is that foot, because if it does reoccur, it’s going to be a lost for the season
scenario in all probability. If he continues to have significant issues with his feet, there
will be talk of his career being in danger. If he can stay healthy through a season he
will change some viewpoints, and with that line-up he should do some heavy damage
from a weak position while he’s at it. Pretty standard high risk/high reward scenario.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians

IPR: 5 Nothing really jumps out at you historically, but he started to develop some nagging
injuries and ran into a few trips to the DL last year. I absolutely love his game, and I
Age Factor: 28 think he’s a stud in any format, but the flurry last year can’t be completely ignored.

Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers

IPR: 8 Shoulder. If it stays healthy he’s a beast. If he starts having issues with it again he’ll be
a bust. His game is there, he’s a strikeout guy with good stuff, but it’s just a matter of
Age Factor: 26 the shoulder holding up. Not a bad gamble to take depending on where he falls in your
draft.
 Huston Street, RP, Rockies
IPR: 7 In general he just has health questions. Got in some decent work last year, but the
injury history is there, and his home field is touted by their own upper management as
Age Factor: 27 a known boost to a hitters production. Whatever, that’s hit or miss, but it’s his
durability that is really in question.

Russell Martin, C, Yankees

IPR: 10 Knees, hips, the general trend toward suckiness. Do you really want to go there? It’s
amazing that Jorge Posada at 39 years old has a better chance of getting through the
Age Factor: 28 season than Martin at 28.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Rays

IPR: 10 Come on now, he’s 38 years old, turning 39 in May. The DH spot helps quite a bit now
that he’s in the American League again, but the guy who needed birth control to help
his shrunken testicles is not going to make or break your team. He’ll be middle of the
Age Factor: 38
road until he finally hangs ‘em up, but don’t expect a whole lot from the steroid-
riddled senior citizen. You never know, he might actually produce when he’s in the
line-up, but it won’t fill the stat sheet and he is guaranteed to miss some time.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Orioles

IPR: 8 Another guy who could be helped by a switch to the American League and the DH
position as an option. He’s entering the top half of the 30’s, and he has always had a
Age Factor: 35 knack for having something going on in the health department. The change of scenery
could do him good but its buyer beware.

Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins

IPR: 8 The Tommy John interrupted what was an amazing start to a career. His numbers
were so insanely good out of the gate that owners will always have it in the back of
Age Factor: their mind that he could return to form. And he could, anything is possible. Even if he
doesn’t, he still has the talent to be a high level pitcher. The arm is a concern though,
not all Tommy John surgeries end in sunshine and roses, although the outcomes have
been more and more successful as teams get the rehabilitation process down to a
science. Still, there have been some red flags and he has experienced control issues.
Depending on where he is available to you in the draft, he’s a guy with great upside but
some background concerns with his health.
 Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox
IPR: 8 Could get him for insanely cheap, but that is the only way I would roster this guy. His
blister history alone bothers me and I just don’t see the reliability anymore. He might
Age Factor: 30 put up a decent win total, but I think he’ll negatively impact your peripherals while he
tries to get back on track.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Twins

IPR: 9 By some miracle he got through 2010 without breaking a finger or something, and to
think he’ll go two in a row is nuts. He’s not exactly a premier player, and he’s about to
Age Factor: 31 turn 32, but he can be serviceable. I just remember constantly hearing about
something or other going on with him every year with the exception of this last time
around.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves

IPR: 10+ If you don’t know the deal with Chipper, then you have bigger problems. He’ll be 39
years old in April, with an endless injury history and coming off an ACL. Enough said.
Age Factor: 38

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds

IPR: 8 I love the heat, but I honestly worry about seeing his arm at home plate. At 105MPH, I
really do have to question if his shoulder socket is capable of keeping his arm attached
Age Factor: 23 to his body. If he is able to gain better control and the ump never has to dust a bloody
limb off of home plate, he is going to be disgustingly good. Technically, I cheated on
his age; he doesn’t turn 23 until tomorrow.

There are obviously more, but that’s all I can muster for now. Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Chris Young,
and many others are floating around out there, so be careful.

Well, that’s the blah blah blah on health factors to keep an eye on as you head into the 2011 season.
Hopefully you find it helpful and put it to use on draft day, because a healthy squad will at least give you
a legitimate chance to compete.