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Glo DGF Ocean Market Update
Glo DGF Ocean Market Update
Glo DGF Ocean Market Update
OCEAN FREIGHT
MARKET UPDATE
December 2019
Publication Date 29th November 2019
Dominique von Orelli – Global Head, Ocean Freight
1
PUBLIC
Contents
MARKET OUTLOOK
Freight Rates and Volume Development
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
CARRIERS
-4.0
-5.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
’18 ’19
Average 6) 69’858.0 72’352.0 4% 4’028.2 6’661.3 65% 5.8% 9.2% -696.9 236.9 134%
Source: Alphaliner; n.a. = not available, n.m. = not meaningful, 1) local currency numbers were converted into US$ using the average exchange rate for relevant financial period, 2) shipping activities only, excl. CEVA Logistics, 3) results are H1 of Japanese
financial year, i.e. Apr-Sep, not calendar year, 4) operating profit is “Core EBIT”, 5) operating profit is EBITDA, 6) Average excluding ONE, 7) Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) are excluded from Jul’18 pursuant the decision to sell the terminal
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1) DHL TRADE BAROMETER6) SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH
SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH (ANNUALIZED),
(ANNUALIZED),ININ
%%2) 2)
CAGR 75 Demand
2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Nov19 index 6%
(2020-23) 70 predicts Nov-
Growth
65 Jan trade 5% %
EURO 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
60 development 4%
MEA 1.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1%
55
AMER 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 50
3%
ASPA 4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 45 2%
Supply
40 Ocean
1% Growth %
DGF World 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 35 Global
30
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
’17 ’18 ’19
WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI)3) SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX (SCFI)4) BUNKER PRICES5)
3,000 1,200
1,100
2,500
1,000
2,000
900
1,500 800
700
1,000 Actual Actual
600
500 Forecast Forecast
500
0 400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
’18 ’19 ’18 ’19
1) real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q3 2019 . All rights reserved. 2) Demand growth = Port-to-Port Container Traffic growth. Supply growth = Fleet Growth. Source: Drewry Maritime Research. 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia
routes. 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai. 5) Source: DHL. 6) DHL Global Trade Barometer Jun19, index value represents weighted average of current growth and upcoming two months of trade, a value at 50 is considered neutral,
expanding above 50, and shrinking below 50.
Source: DGF
Unanticipated strength in final sales to domestic purchasers & in net exports was only partially offset by weaker-than-expected inventory
accumulation. Recent data on consumer spending & business fixed investment were on the soft side, though, & the United Auto Workers’ strike
AMNO
against GM lasted 6 weeks instead of the 3 weeks observers assumed last month. Three special factors will help nudge GDP growth up to 2.1% next
year: a post-strike rebound of production at GM, a recovery in Boeing’s production of 737 MAX aircraft, and spending for the decennial census.
The expected growth bounce ahead of the sales-tax hike in JP was slight. This largely reflected a 0.3-percentage-point drag on real GDP growth
from changes in private inventories, along with continued weakness in net exports due to a 0.7% QoQ decline in real exports. Contraction is likely in
Q4 due to downside impacts from the consumption-tax increase in Oct ‘19 and supertyphoon Hagibis, before a modest economic recovery
ASPA early next year. CN’s economic growth slid further in Q3. Real GDP growth rate was the slowest pace since CN began reporting quarterly GDP data
in 1992. In Oct, YoY growth in industrial output, retail sales, & fixed-asset investment slowed. Exports & imports continued to decline, partly because
of the ongoing trade conflict. Equally worrisome are the struggles in the automotive sector, where sales keep falling. Mixed signals regarding the
progress of the trade talks between China and the United States continue to cloud the outlook.
The biggest-single issue facing Emerging Markets is the sharp drop in productivity growth. Much of the blame lies with the lack of (or poor
EMERGING implementation of) structural reforms. High debt levels (both domestic & foreign) are another impediment to growth. Large budget and/or current-
MARKETS account deficits are problems for many emerging markets. Finally, weak growth in the developed world and meager commodity prices make for a
tough external environment. All this means emerging markets will not be able to break out of the doldrums in the next few years.
DEMAND Global manufacturing output PMIs edged up for a second consecutive month indicating that the recent industrial downturn may have bottomed out
DEVELOPMENT during the summer.
Source: IHS Markit, IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and business shrinking below 50.
According to Alphaliner records, 119 containerships have completed their scrubber retrofits so
far with a further 60 units that were already fitted with scrubbers at delivery. MSC leads the Top
10 Carriers with confirmed orders for about 250 scrubbers, followed by Evergreen with some 150
units and Maersk with about 140, including both on owned and chartered ships. ONE is the only Top
10 Carrier that will not have scrubbers on any of its containerships by 2020 and will thus have to
rely on compliant low-sulphur fuel to meet the requirements of the IMO 2020 regulations.
Carriers
CARRIERS
THE Alliance members have filed an amended version of their Vessel Sharing Agreement with the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) in Washington as Hyundai
Merchant Marine (HMM) will join the alliance on 1 April 2020 as a fourth member. The revised document also confirms the extension of the VSA duration. Hapag-Lloyd,
HMM, ONE and Yang Ming intend to cooperate until at least 1 April 2030.
COSCO Shipping Lines (Europe) has established Diamond Line, a wholly-owned subsidiary incorporated in Germany in July, to take over the intra-Europe trade and
feeder operations from COSCO. After the handover, bills of lading will be issued under the name of Diamond Line. The new company will take over all Intra Europe
business and feeder rights and obligations from COSCO Shipping Lines (Europe). The specific time of the transfer is yet to be announced.
CMA CGM will raise $2,083 M from asset sales that will allow it to repay its short term debt and roll over part of its outstanding liabilities due in 2020. The company
announced on 25 November the disposal of 10 of its terminals to Terminal Link for $968 M, which will be fully funded by China Merchants including a $500 M loan that
CMA CGM will need to repay in 8 years with interest at 6% per year. The specific terminals involved in the deal was not disclosed yet, but CMA CGM said that it expects to
provide further details of the sale before the end of December. CMA CGM and China Merchants signed the Memorandum of Agreement on 25 November and the deal is
expected to be closed in Q 2 2020. CMA CGM has also confirmed the sale and leaseback of additional vessels that will raise proceeds of $880 M, including $550 M that
was closed in Q3 2019 and $100 M in October. A further $210 M is due to be concluded in Q 1 2020.
Top 10 Carriers : Change in Global Capacity Share 2018-2019
Shareholder’s position on strict capital expenditure discipline will continue to constrain Maersk’s
ability to grow in the next 2 years. In its latest earnings call, the company confirmed that the
group’s annual capex will be limited to just $1.5 Bn to $2.0 Bn. This capex limit is below Maersk’s
current annual depreciation of about $3.0 Bn a year (excluding leases), and is expected to result in a
shrinking asset base for the company over the next 2 years. Maersk stated that its capacity growth
is expected to be ‘slightly below’ market in 2020 and 2021. As far as overall fleet size is
concerned, rival carriers have continued to gain share on Maersk’s expense. Its closest competitors,
MSC and COSCO, gained 1.1% and 1.0% of global market share in the last 2 years, while Maersk
lost -1.5% over the same period.
Propelling deep-sea vessels with battery power alone is still years away from being a technically and
economically viable option. However marine battery systems can be used to improve the efficiency of a
vessel’s onboard electrical system.
• By maintaining auxiliary generators at an optimal load, and avoiding running generators when not needed, overall fuel consumption can be reduced.
• Additionally, batteries can support the generators with up to 1,800 kVA of power during rapid changes in electrical load such as thruster operation.
This can reduce generator maintenance requirements.
• The battery system is also capable of providing redundant power, which can improve reliability at sea by ensuring continuous power supply, thus
complementing the emergency generator in case of black-out.
The MAERSK CAPE TOWN includes a waste heat recovery system, which is common on containerships. Numerous powerful containerships are fitted
with turbo alternators driven by the main engine exhaust gases, allowing to convert into electricity the heat that would otherwise be wasted. This
‘waste heat’ electricity can then be used to recharge the batteries.
Maersk stated that this trial will provide a greater understanding of energy storage that will support the company in moving towards further
electrification of its fleet and port terminals in its journey to become carbon neutral by 2050.
Source: Alphaliner
BAC K- UP
13
13
PUBLIC
Market Outlook December 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)
EURO – MENAT ME region shows same trend as ASPA; space remains tight on all eastern hemisphere trades.
Rates remain stable for now, but might slightly increase as of Q1 2020. Carriers implemented IMO 2020 surcharges as of December 1st. The
EURO – SSA
South Africa trade will become more quite within the next weeks, due to summer/Christmas holidays in South Africa.
Rates in the market are still stable as expected. No changes are expected before January.
AMNO – MENAT Space is tight out of USEC & USGC Ports as usual on services to M. East & India Subcontinent but getting better since mid-October.
No space issues out of USWC at this time.
Rates to South Africa and West Africa still remained unchanged except congestion surcharges in Nigeria. No changes in capacity. Space is
AMNO – SSA
available.
Market remains soft on US Exports. CMA re-enters the USEC to WCSA Americas service, with slots shared HS/HL. Carriers poised to apply
AMNO – AMLA
low sulfur charges Dec 1 and Jan 1, 2020.
Source: DGF
Market Outlook December 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)
In preparation for 2020 Lunar New Year and to avoid IMO2020 surcharges implementation in Jan 2020, customers rush to ship out
ASPA-SPAC their cargoes in Dec 2019. Coupled with the A3 consortium blank sailings, there will be highly anticipated space crunch which sees the
last cargo rush of this peak season cycle. Carriers have announced a GRI USD 300/TEU for Dec 2019.
Source: DGF
N O R T H N O R T H
A M E R I C A A M E R I C A
I n c l . 4.3 mTEU +2.2% 7.6 mTEU +3.0% I n c l .
M E X I C O F A R E A S T M E X I C O
M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S
United Hyundai
China CMA Hapag Hamburg Maersk Yang
Cosco OOCL Evergreen APL Arab Merchant MSC K Line MOL NYK
Shipping CGM Lloyd Süd Line Ming
Shipping Marine
HYUNDAI
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING EVER CMA CGM MAERSK LINE OCEAN NETWORK YANG
HAPAG-LLOYD MERCHANT MSC
OOCL GREEN APL MARINE Hamburg Süd EXPRESS (ONE) MING
A L L I A N C E S
F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S
HAPAG-LLOYD
HAPAG-LLOYD HYUNDAI COSCO
ONE
MOL MERCHANT EVERGREEN K-LINE
G6 MARINE CKYHE THE ALLIANCE YANG MING
NYK HANJIN YANG MING
OOCL SHPPING HMM (from 1 April
APL
2020)
*Source: Carriers