This document discusses six different methods for measuring financial market integration that have been developed and applied in academic literature:
1. Cross-market return dispersion measures the differences in returns between equity market indices across economies, with smaller differences indicating higher integration.
2. The Kalman filter models time-varying parameter convergence, seeing if differences between two series become relatively small over time.
3. Dynamic cointegration analysis uses rolling cointegration tests to assess whether integration between two markets is complete in a given time frame.
4. The common component approach models dividend yields, forward premia, and currency returns as common factors driving excess asset returns across economies.
5. Synchronization of financial market cycles measures the
This document discusses six different methods for measuring financial market integration that have been developed and applied in academic literature:
1. Cross-market return dispersion measures the differences in returns between equity market indices across economies, with smaller differences indicating higher integration.
2. The Kalman filter models time-varying parameter convergence, seeing if differences between two series become relatively small over time.
3. Dynamic cointegration analysis uses rolling cointegration tests to assess whether integration between two markets is complete in a given time frame.
4. The common component approach models dividend yields, forward premia, and currency returns as common factors driving excess asset returns across economies.
5. Synchronization of financial market cycles measures the
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
This document discusses six different methods for measuring financial market integration that have been developed and applied in academic literature:
1. Cross-market return dispersion measures the differences in returns between equity market indices across economies, with smaller differences indicating higher integration.
2. The Kalman filter models time-varying parameter convergence, seeing if differences between two series become relatively small over time.
3. Dynamic cointegration analysis uses rolling cointegration tests to assess whether integration between two markets is complete in a given time frame.
4. The common component approach models dividend yields, forward premia, and currency returns as common factors driving excess asset returns across economies.
5. Synchronization of financial market cycles measures the
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
Table 2: Measurement Of Financial Market Integration
No Method Developed by Basic Idea Measurement Applications/Equation
. 1 Cross-market Solnik and Following the LOOP, identical or Cross market dispersion measured as the Hodric-Prescott smoothing technique to estimate the long-term return Roulet (2000) comparable assets across different log differences of the benchmark equity component. dispersion economies should generate the same return. indices of various economies. 12- month moving average of the cross-market maximum–minimum The low return dispersion indicates higher return differential to capture the dispersion of returns across equity market integration and vice versa markets. The smaller the maximum–minimum return differential between equity markets, the greater their return convergence is. 2 Kalman Filter Haldane and Hall Model of Time Varying Parameter Ei,t is the equity market index level of 1) The signal Equation (1991) Convergence in integration is reached if the economy i at time t difference between two or more series is EB,t is the equity market index level of a 2) The state Equation relatively small so that dominant regional market EUS,t is the dominant external market at time t proxied by the US equity when i approaches 0, the two series are converging market when i approaches 1, Ei,t and EUS,t are converging i to trend towards zero in the long run if the integration process is complete 3 Dynamic Johansen (1988). Assess whether the process of integration is Use procedure of rolling cointegration Standardized Trace statistics= ratio between the trace statistics and the cointegration Applied method completed in fixed time frame. test by calculating trace statistics to test corresponding 95% critical values analysis of rolling The two series are cointegrated means whether there exist one or more If > 1 cannot reject null hypothesis of no cointegration cointegration test moving together and not deviate or exist a cointegrating vectors If < 1 market cointegrated by Pascual long-run relationship. If a system contains Pascual (2003) if there is an upward trend of trace statistics --. More (2003) n market indices then for a complete evidence on cointegration integration need n-1 cointegrating vector (Kasa, 1992) 4 Common Bekaert and the dividend yields and forward premia, Method: regression component Hodrick (1992) together with currency returns, are common Leads and Lags (rolling window to approach and Campbell component factors which are able to capture measure dynamic cointegration = 3 years Yi,t is the (degraded) excess equity return of economy i, (from monthly and Hamao the dynamics of the excess asset returns The Adj R-square measure of equity stock market return expressed in local currency (1992) market integration of economy I less 1-month LIBOR); Xj is a vector of which each element is an (represents the contribution of the aggregate of an unweighted cross-economy averages of a common common component factor over time. For component factor includes: currency component to the total variance for the return (c), excess equity return (r), dividend yield (dy), and forward excess equity return in economy i premia (fp) 5 Synchronizatio Pagan and Markets are integrated if more Measuring signal change of the market Follow Edward (2003):the rolling concordance index measured as: n of financial Sossounov “synchronized” or in the same phase of by indicating the peaks and troughs market cycle (2003) and financial market systems (turning point) value: 0<RCI<1; upward/downward trend of RCI the market approach Edwards et al. more/less integrated (2003) 6 Correlation Engle and Higher correlation between equity markets a two-step estimation procedure: using dynamic Sheppard (2001) generally implies 1. Estimate univariate GARCH for each and conditional and Engle higher co-movement and greater integration return series qij is the off diagonal elements of the variance–covariance correlation (2002) between the markets 2. use the standardised residuals from matrix, qij is the unconditional expectation of the cross product zi,tzj,t (DCC) model the first step to estimatethe dynamic and qij,t is the conditional correlation between the equity market returns conditional correlations between of economy i and j at time t. equity market returns