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Harley-Davidson - 2005: A. Case Abstract
Harley-Davidson - 2005: A. Case Abstract
A. Case Abstract
144
Owners Group (HOG) (7). We continue to do our part in supporting all
environmental laws in every country we do business (8). Harley-Davidson
intends to stay committed and determined.
1. Customer
2. Product or services
3. Markets
4. Technology
5. Concern for survival, growth, profitability
6. Philosophy
7. Self-concept
8. Concern for public image
9. Concern for employees
D. External Audit
Opportunities
Threats
145
4. Some competitors of Harley-Davidson have larger financial and
marketing resources and are more diversified.
5. Environmental protection laws.
6. Shifts in buyers’ needs and tastes.
7. Customer loyalty in European and Asian countries low for American
products.
8. Costs could become expensive from importing.
9. Perception of Harleys among noncyclers is often not good.
EFE Matrix
146
4. Some competitors of Harley-Davidson have larger financial and 0.025 1 0.025
marketing resources and they are more diversified.
5. Environmental protection laws. 0.025 3 0.075
6. Shifts in buyers needs and tastes. 0.025 3 0.075
7. Customer loyalty in European and Asian countries. 0.025 2 0.050
8. Costs could become expensive from international importing. 0.025 2 0.050
9. Perception of Harleys among noncyclers is often not good 0.025 3 0.075
Total 1.00 2.38
E. Internal Audit
Strengths
1. Net income in 2004 was $889 million, which was 53 percent higher than in
2002.
2. Strong relationships built on trust and respect with suppliers and dealers.
3. The standard and performance segments of Harley-Davidson make up 70% of
the European heavyweight motorcycle market.
4. Harley-Davidson operates in two principal business segments: Motorcycles
and Related Products, and Financial Services.
5. Harley-Davidson is the only major American motorcycle manufacturer.
6. Strong brand name.
7. The company has continued to focus its capital expenditures on capacity
expansion at its new and previously existing facilities.
8. The Harley Owner’s Group (HOG) is the industry’s largest company
sponsored motorcycle enthusiast organization, which currently has
approximately 430,000 members worldwide.
9. Harley-Davidson offers a custom segment that allows owners the opportunity
to customize their bikes, this division makes up the highest number of Harley-
Davidsons sold.
10. Harley-Davidson has a strong marketing department, which sponsors and
participates in all major motorcycle consumer shows and rallies.
Weaknesses
147
10. Loss of benefits.
11.
148
Date Avg. P/E Price/Sales Price/Book Net Profit Margin (%)
12/04 18.20 3.57 5.55 17.7
12/03 17.50 3.10 4.85 16.5
12/02 26.30 3.42 6.26 14.2
12/01 30.80 4.89 9.36 13.0
12/00 35.50 4.13 8.55 12.0
Adapted from www.cnbc.com
Date Book Value/ Share Debt/Equity ROE (%) ROA (%) Interest Coverage
12/04 $10.94 0.25 27.6 16.2 61.8
12/03 $9.81 0.23 25.7 15.5 67.3
12/02 $7.38 0.17 26.0 15.0 59.7
12/01 $5.80 0.22 24.9 14.0 NA
12/00 $4.65 0.25 24.7 14.3 NA
Adapted from www.cnbc.com
IFE Matrix
149
10. Harley-Davidson has a strong marketing department, 0.030 3 0.090
which sponsors and participates in all major motorcycle
consumer shows and rallies.
Weaknesses
1. Harley-Davidson does not emphasize price in its product. 0.075 1 0.075
2. Harley-Davidson has had difficulty gaining market shore 0.075 1 0.075
in some European countries.
3. Registrations for the Asia/Pacific market are decreasing. 0.060 1 0.060
4. Facing ongoing capacity constraints. 0.055 1 0.055
5. Only a small portion of the company's annual capital 0.050 2 0.050
expenditures relate to equipment, which has the sole
purpose of meeting environmental compliance obligations.
6. The top Board of Directors for Harley-Davidson are all 0.045 2 0.090
men.
7. The leadership strategy council is comprised completely of 0.040 2 0.080
vice presidents.
8. Difficult to attract and retain talented employee. 0.035 2 0.070
9. Lack of opportunity for advancement. 0.030 2 0.060
10. Loss of benefits 0.030 2 0.060
TOTAL 1.00 2.51
F. SWOT Matrix
Strengths Weaknesses
1. Net income in 2004 was $889 1. Harley-Davidson does not
million which was 53 percent emphasize price in its product.
higher than in 2001. 2. Harley-Davidson has had
2. Strong relationships built difficulty gaining market share in
on trust and respect with some European countries.
suppliers and dealers. 3. Registrations for the
3. Harley-Davidson operates in two Asia/Pacific market are
principal business segments: decreasing.
Motorcycles and Related 4. Facing ongoing capacity
Products, and Financial constraints.
Services. 5. Only a small portion of the
4. Harley-Davidson is the only company's annual capital
major American motorcycle expenditures relate to
manufacturer. equipment, which has the sole
5. Strong brand name. purpose of meeting environmental
6. The company has continued to compliance obligations.
focus its capital expenditures on 6. The top Board of Directors
capacity expansion at its new for Harley-Davidson are all men.
and previously existing facilities. 7. The leadership strategy
7. The Harley Owners Group council is comprised completely
(HOG) is the industry’s largest of vice presidents.
company sponsored motorcycle 8. Difficult to attract and
enthusiast organization, which retain talented employees.
currently has approximately 9. Lack of opportunity for
430,000 members worldwide. advancement.
8. Harley-Davidson offers a 10. Loss of benefits.
custom segment that allows
150
owners the opportunity to
customize their bikes, this
division makes up the highest
number of Harley-Davidsons
sold.
9. Harley-Davidson has a strong
marketing department, which
sponsors and participates in all
major motorcycle consumer
shows and rallies.
151
5. Environmental protection laws.
6. Shifts in buyers’ needs and tastes.
7. Customer loyalty in European
and Asian Countries.
8. Costs could become expensive
from international importing.
9. Perception of Harleys among
noncyclers is often not good.
G. SPACE Matrix
Conservative
Quadrant II Quadrant I
Harley
WEAK STRONG
COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE
POSITION POSITION
SLOW MARKET
GROWTH
1. Forward Integration
2. Backward Integration
3. Horizontal Integration
4. Market Penetration
5. Market Development
6. Product Development
7. Related Diversification
Medium IV V VI
The EFE Total 2.0 to
Weighted Score 2.99
Harley
153
1.0 to
1.99
Region Revenue
USA $4,097M
Europe $478M
Japan $193M
Canada $$138M
Other $110M
Total $5,016
J. QSPM
Strategic Alternatives
Joint Venture in Increase Brand
Key Internal Factors Weight Europe Name Promotion
Strengths AS TAS AS TAS
1. Net income in 2004 was $889 million, which was 53 0.075 4 0.300 3 0.225
percent higher than in 2002.
2. Strong relationships built on trust and respect with 0.075 2 0.150 4 0.030
suppliers and dealers.
3. The standard and performance segments of Harley- 0.065 4 0.260 2 0.130
Davidson make up 70% of the European heavyweight
motorcycle market.
4. Harley-Davidson operates in two principal business 0.050 --- --- --- ---
segments: Motorcycles and Related Products, and
Financial Services.
5. Harley-Davidson is the only major American 0.050 --- --- --- ---
motorcycle manufacturer.
6. Strong brand name. 0.050 2 0.100 4 0.200
7. The company has continued to focus its capital 0.040 --- --- --- ---
expenditures on capacity expansion at its new and
previously existing facilities.
8. The Harley Owner’s Group (HOG) is the industry’s 0.040 2 0.080 3 0.120
largest company sponsored motorcycle enthusiast
organization, which currently has approximately
430,000 members worldwide.
9. Harley-Davidson offers a custom segment that 0.030 --- --- --- ---
allows owners the opportunity to customize their bikes,
this division makes up the highest number of Harley-
Davidsons sold.
10. Harley-Davidson has a strong marketing 0.030 --- --- --- ---
department, which sponsors and participates in all
major motorcycle consumer shows and rallies.
Weaknesses
1. Harley-Davidson does not emphasize price in its 0.075 --- --- --- ---
product.
2. Harley-Davidson has had difficulty gaining market 0.060 4 0.240 2 0.120
share in some European countries.
154
3. Registrations for the Asia/Pacific market are 0.055 --- --- --- ---
decreasing.
4. Facing ongoing capacity constraints. 0.050 --- --- --- ---
5. Only a small portion of the company's annual capital 0.045 --- --- --- ---
expenditures relate to equipment, which has the sole
purpose of meeting environmental compliance
obligations.
6. The top Board of Directors for Harley-Davidson are 0.040 --- --- --- ---
all men.
7. The leadership strategy council is comprised 0.035 --- --- --- ---
completely of vice presidents.
8. Difficult to attract and retain talented employees. 0.030 --- --- --- ---
9. Lack of opportunity for advancement. 0.030 --- --- --- ---
10. Loss of benefits 0.075 --- --- --- ---
Total 1.130 0.825
155
SUM TOTAL ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE 3.055 2.200
K. Recommendations
• Form a joint venture with a European motorcycle company. This would enable Harley to
infiltrate the European market in a more cost effective way, and allow Harley to stay
more informed on European Union Laws dealing with noise and emissions. Also joint
venture with a European apparel maker to produce and market Harley apparel. Total
Cost expected of $2.5B.
• Expand the brand name of Harley through increased advertising, trade shows, and bike
rallies. Total cost $500M.
L. EBIT/EPS Analysis
Common Stock
Recession Norma
EBIT $750,000,000 $1,250,000
Interest 070 Percent Stock0- 3
EBT 750,000,000
Recession 1,250,000
Norma
Taxes
EBIT 262,500,000 $1,250,000
$750,000,000 437,500,
EAT
Interest 487,500,000
63,000,000 812,500,
63,000,0
M. Epilogue
#
EBT Shares 331,692,308
687,000,000 331,692,
1,187,000
On January 19, 2006, Harley-Davidson Inc. reported that fourth-quarter
Taxes
pushing 1.47
profit rose 10 percent as the company benefited from higher sales overseas,
EPS 240,450,000
its results above Wall Street expectations. 2.45
The year 2005 was Harley’s 415,450,
twentieth straight year of record revenue, earnings, and retail motorcycle sales. Its
EAT 156
446,550,000 771,550,
# Shares 314,384,615 314,384,
shares closed up $2.56, or almost 5 percent, to $54.05 on the New York Stock
Exchange.
Quarterly earnings grew to $230 million, or 84 cents per share, for the
October-December period from $209 million, or 71 cents per share, a year earlier.
Revenue grew 10 percent to $1.34 billion from $1.22 billion, with motorcycle
revenue up 10 percent to $1.09 billion. The company said U.S. retail motorcycle
sales increased 0.7 percent, while international sales rose 13 percent.
For the full year 2005, Harley’s net income rose 8 percent to $959.6
million, or $3.41 per share, from $889.8 million, or $3 per share, in 2004.
Revenue grew 7 percent to $5.34 billion from $5.02 billion in the prior year. The
company maintained its forecast for wholesale unit growth in the range of 5 to 9
percent annually and an annual earnings per share growth rate of 11 to 17 percent.
It kept its motorcycle shipment target for 2006 of between 348,000 to 352,000
units, with planned wholesale shipments of 79,000 motorcycles during the first
quarter.
However, Gary Cooper, an analyst with Bank of America, said U.S. sales
in the fourth quarter were disappointing and meant inventories at U.S. dealers had
nearly doubled to an estimated 65,000 units, a record high. The company sells 80
percent of its motorcycles domestically. "This high level of inventory exists at
the same time that industry motorcycle sales are decelerating and the U.S.
economy is slowing," Cooper said in a research note. "To our eyes, this is not an
appropriate time to be carrying an all-time high level of inventory." Ziemer said,
while the company aimed to reduce wait times and retail prices for motorcycles at
U.S. dealers, inventories were piling up at northern climate dealers but were tight
in the South. "Putting inventory in the right place at the right time has been
challenging," he said. "We have not found a short-term silver bullet solution."
Harley’s worldwide retail sales grew 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter and
6.2 percent for the full year to 317,169 units; the company said. For the year,
U.S. sales grew 4.2 percent to 253,414 units, European sales grew 19.9 percent to
29,482; Japan was up 11.1 percent to 11,420; Canada rose 4.1 percent to 11,660;
and all other markets grew 19.4 percent to 11,193.
157