Forecast demand period

41 1
43 2
49 3
55 4
56 5
60 6
62 7
8

1. Plot the time series of the Demand for the periods and comment on the pattern
2. Provide the forecast for the period 8 using:
a. Two period moving average
b. Naïve approach
c. Three-period weighted moving average (weights are 0.4 most recent, 0.4
and 0.2)
d. Four period moving average
e. Two-period weighted moving average (weight are 0.3 most recent, 0.7)
f. Exponential Smoothing with a constant 0.4
3. Use the best method in part (2) to forecast for April14?

Two-months moving average

2 period moving average

(MA2) demand period

41 1

43 2

49 3

55 4

56 5

60 6

62 7

8
.
Naïve Approach

Naïve
demand period

41 1

43 2

49 3

55 4

56 5

60 6

62 7

8
.

Two period weighted moving average (weight are 0.3 most recent, 0.7)

2 Period Weighted Moving

Average, WMA2, 0.7 and
0.3 demand period

41 1

43 2

49 3

55 4

56 5

60 6

62 7

8
.
Three period weighted moving average (weights are 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, reserve
chronological order )

3 Period Weighted Moving

Average, WMA3 demand period

41 1

43 2

49 3

55 4

56 5

60 6

62 7

8
.

Exponential Smoothing with a constant 0.4

Exponential
smoothing, Alpha,
α =0.4 demand period

41 1

43 2

49 3

55 4

56 5

60 6

62 7