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Real Estate North America
Real Estate North America
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Market volume
The North American real estate market grew by 1.9% in 2016 to reach a volume of 61.4 million housing units.
Geography segmentation
The United States accounts for 89% of the North American real estate market value.
Market rivalry
Competitive pressure in this industry is intensified by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global economic climate,
something which in turn can hamper access to necessary capital. The North American real estate industry bears
disparities within the countries that comprise it. Analytically, the US and Canadian industries are highly fragmented, with
rivalry to be intensive mainly in the largest metropolitan areas. In Mexico, demand for properties in rural areas was
greater in recent years, but competition was evident as rental vacancy rates surged due to a financial crisis in the
homebuilding sector. Overall, increasing demand reflected on rising rent prices in the last two years, alleviates rivalry.
Market value............................................................................................................................................................... 2
Market volume............................................................................................................................................................ 2
Market rivalry.............................................................................................................................................................. 2
Market value............................................................................................................................................................... 8
Market volume............................................................................................................................................................ 9
Summary .................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Threat of substitutes................................................................................................................................................. 19
Methodology................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Appendix ...................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Table 2: North America real estate market volume: million housing units, 2012–16 ...................................................... 9
Table 3: North America real estate market geography segmentation: $ billion, 2016 .................................................. 10
Table 4: North America real estate market value forecast: $ billion, 2016–21 ............................................................. 11
Table 5: North America real estate market volume forecast: million housing units, 2016–21 ...................................... 12
Table 7: Apartment Investment and Management Company: key financials ($) .......................................................... 23
Table 8: Apartment Investment and Management Company: key financial ratios ........................................................ 23
Table 12: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key facts ........................................................................... 28
Table 13: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key financials ($) .............................................................. 29
Table 14: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key financials (C$) ........................................................... 29
Table 15: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key financial ratios ........................................................... 29
Table 18: Sare Holding SAB de CV: key financials (MXN) ........................................................................................... 32
Table 19: Sare Holding SAB de CV: key financial ratios .............................................................................................. 32
Figure 2: North America real estate market volume: million housing units, 2012–16 ..................................................... 9
Figure 3: North America real estate market geography segmentation: % share, by value, 2016 ................................. 10
Figure 4: North America real estate market value forecast: $ billion, 2016–21 ............................................................ 11
Figure 5: North America real estate market volume forecast: million housing units, 2016–21 ..................................... 12
Figure 6: Forces driving competition in the real estate market in North America, 2016 ............................................... 13
Figure 7: Drivers of buyer power in the real estate market in North America, 2016 ..................................................... 14
Figure 8: Drivers of supplier power in the real estate market in North America, 2016.................................................. 16
Figure 9: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the real estate market in North America, 2016 ............ 17
Figure 10: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the real estate market in North America, 2016 ................... 19
Figure 11: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the real estate market in North America, 2016 ............................................. 20
Figure 12: Apartment Investment and Management Company: revenues & profitability .............................................. 23
Figure 13: Apartment Investment and Management Company: assets & liabilities ...................................................... 24
Figure 16: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: revenues & profitability.................................................... 30
Figure 17: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: assets & liabilities ........................................................... 30
Figure 18: Sare Holding SAB de CV: revenues & profitability ...................................................................................... 32
Figure 19: Sare Holding SAB de CV: assets & liabilities .............................................................................................. 33
For the purposes of this report, the global market consists of North America, South America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle
East, South Africa and Nigeria.
Europe comprises Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
Asia-Pacific comprises Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Middle East comprises Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
Market analysis
The North American real estate has grown moderately in recent years. Forecasts show that the industry’s growth will
accelerate in the future at stronger rates.
Among the industries within the North American region, the US had the slightest growth but its industry appeared to be
healthier in terms of demand. In detail, the Canadian industry was partially driven by speculation of foreign investors to
properties, while the Mexican industry experienced an adjustment to new urbanization policies that caused financial
problems to property developers.
The North American real estate industry had total revenues of $598.2bn in 2016, representing a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% between 2012 and 2016. In comparison, the Canadian and Mexican industries grew with
CAGRs of 5.7% and 4.1% respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $39.1bn and $26.6bn in
2016.
Rent prices have increased in the last two years as seen from the larger growth in terms of value over units, with that
trend emerging mainly in Canada and then US.
Industry consumption volume increased with a CAGR of 3.1% between 2012-2016, to reach a total of 61.4 million
housing units in 2016. The industry's volume is expected to rise to 70 million housing units by the end of 2021,
representing a CAGR of 2.7% for the 2016-2021 period.
The performance of the industry is forecast to accelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 5.1% for the five-year period 2016
- 2021, which is expected to drive the industry to a value of $768.2bn by the end of 2021. Comparatively, the Canadian
and Mexican industries will grow with CAGRs of 5.4% and 5.9% respectively, over the same period, to reach respective
values of $50.9bn and $35.4bn in 2021.
The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2012–16 was 3.5%.
The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2012–16 was 3.1%.
Table 2: North America real estate market volume: million housing units, 2012–16
Figure 2: North America real estate market volume: million housing units, 2012–16
Table 3: North America real estate market geography segmentation: $ billion, 2016
Geography 2016 %
United States 532.5 89.0
Canada 39.1 6.5
Mexico 26.6 4.5
Figure 3: North America real estate market geography segmentation: % share, by value, 2016
The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2016–21 is predicted to be 5.1%.
Table 4: North America real estate market value forecast: $ billion, 2016–21
Figure 4: North America real estate market value forecast: $ billion, 2016–21
The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2016–21 is predicted to be 2.7%.
Table 5: North America real estate market volume forecast: million housing units, 2016–21
Figure 5: North America real estate market volume forecast: million housing units, 2016–21
Summary
Figure 6: Forces driving competition in the real estate market in North America, 2016
Competitive pressure in this industry is intensified by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global economic climate,
something which in turn can hamper access to necessary capital. The North American real estate industry bears
disparities within the countries that comprise it. Analytically, the US and Canadian industries are highly fragmented, with
rivalry to be intensive mainly in the largest metropolitan areas. In Mexico, demand for properties in rural areas was
greater in recent years, but competition was evident as rental vacancy rates surged due to a financial crisis in the
homebuilding sector. Overall, increasing demand reflected on rising rent prices in the last two years, alleviates rivalry.
Buyers within this industry are of widely disparate size and financial strength, so the effect of their large number, usually
weakening buyer power, may be mitigated by their strong financial muscle and ability to negotiate hard with players.
Building and construction contractors as well as property agencies are often key suppliers and their services are often of
high importance to players, boosting supplier power. Entry to this industry requires substantial capital in order to buy and
maintain property; such capital can often be raised through means such as business or mortgage loans. Consequently,
the entrance of new players is dictated by the macroeconomic environment, to which the real estate industry is especially
vulnerable.
For final consumers the main alternative to renting a property is to buy one. Whether this is more costly or not is not
always easy to determine and depends on certain variables, particularly mortgage rates. Brazil has cut interest rates in
the last two years in order to stimulate the growth of the economy, but economic uncertainty is ultimately discouraging on
the decision to buy a property.
There are many individual customers in this industry which, traditionally, would diminish buyer power as the impact of
losing one customer is not overly significant to suppliers. However buyers within this industry are of widely disparate size
and financial strength meaning power may be dependent on the buyers’ financial muscle and ability to negotiate with
players. For example a typical buyer looking to rent an average sized one bedroom apartment in a big city would have a
lower buyer power than a group of buyers looking to rent an expensive penthouse.
Name recognition can play a role in attracting buyers in this industry due to trust or past experience. However, price,
location, suitability, amenities and related factors, are likely to be more important. This is especially true in the case of a
small, individual buyer who wishes to rent a property in a big city. The growing tendency and desire of living within
walking distance from the city center has led to a situation where demand for apartments increased in towns as opposed
to suburbs, weakening buyer power. Furthermore, home-ownership rates in a country can depict the propensity of
individuals within it to rent or buy a house. Specifically, home ownership rates in the North American region have
dropped in recent years in all countries within it. In the case of US and Canada, this is mainly due to the increasing
property prices, while the financial crisis of the building sector in Mexico, also undermined that trend.
Switching costs for buyers are dependent on whether a property is leased directly or indirectly by an estate agent. In the
latter situation, buyers may have to pay higher fees for contract termination. A tenant's legal contract generally covers a
specified time period, which can result in switching costs in the form of an early termination fee should a tenant wish to
exit a contract early. Overall though, switching costs may actually be higher than those prescribed on a contract, as costs
incurred for moving and setting up another contract should also be considered. Industry players can differentiate
themselves through types of property offered and services provided, such as help with renting.
Last but not least, demographics are one of the factors that have a strong direct impact on the demand for real state.
Accordingly, rising urbanization and population rates in general, plausibly entail greater demand. Interestingly,
urbanization rates have been slightly increasing in recent years in the North American region steadily overall, according
to latest data from World Bank. Furthermore, in the US there is a growing trend of individuals seeking properties in mid-
sized population cities as highly-populated urban areas have become saturated somewhat in terms of capacity. Another
fact is that a trend against urbanization in Mexico is expected to be reversed in future after housing policy adjustments of
the Mexican government.
Companies and individuals operating in this industry are engaged in the letting and maintenance of property.
Consequently, building, repairing and letting contractors are key suppliers. The large number of such companies serves
to weaken supplier power considerably. Renting agencies and the majority of building and repair companies offer a
largely undifferentiated service which tends to diminish supplier power significantly.
Industry players will often enter into contracts with suppliers on certain projects and long-term maintenance contracts are
likely to be in place. Such strategies strengthen supplier power as switching costs may be incurred for industry players
should they wish to change provider.
Furthermore, the services offered by suppliers are of importance to industry players, strengthening supplier power
further. Employees with relevant skills and qualifications are a further input to this industry. The ability of industry players
to attract and retain employees is generally vital to the success of a business.
Building construction companies are the most powerful suppliers for the real estate industry as their number is limited
due to the large amount of capital required to engage in these operations. The tendency of building constructor
companies to integrate forward is prevalent in this industry although in the majority of cases it occurs among smaller
companies that are interested in increasing their profits by long term rent agreements on property that has been
purchased and often renovated. In fact, the suppliers with greater financial muscle generally do not tend to be involved in
the leasing or renting of property.
Entry to this industry requires substantial capital in order to buy and maintain property. Such capital can often be raised
through means such as business loans or mortgage loans. However, the economic crisis has led to more stringent credit
market requirements and regulations, making the raising of necessary capital more difficult. Financial pressure can arise
for new companies as significant investment is required and there is usually a period of time before revenues on let
properties are generated.
Entry into this industry can be achieved on a small scale, reducing barriers for new companies. Large companies do not
tend to benefit much from economies of scale; however they can enjoy greater name recognition, something which is a
factor in this industry.
The markets in which players operate can often be uncertain. The real estate industry is particularly vulnerable to
changes in the macroeconomic environment. During times of strong economic growth, companies usually generate
higher revenues. However, in the face of recent economic turbulence, businesses in some segments are affected,
causing increased tenant bankruptcies, which in turn lead to increasing vacancy rates and losses in companies'
revenues. Such uncertainty can be off-putting for potential new entrants. What is more, housing bubbles may be created
in times of economic euphoria driving prices up, but the eventual market-adjustment can be devastating for the industry
and the economy at whole.
Government policies also affect the industry out of the regulation framework. For example, tax deductions for mortgage
payments or rent subsidies can negatively or positively affect demand for real estate, respectively. In countries within the
North American rent subsidies do not usually apply. In contrast, subsidies in the form of tax deductions on mortgage (US
and Canada) exist, while in Mexico there are government-grants to low-income groups for purchasing new homes.
Last but not least, a stricter regulatory framework in Canada, such as vacancy rate taxes or property taxes on foreign
non-residents to prevent speculation is expected to limit the outlook of the domestic industry for new entrants. In
contrast, the low urbanization rate of Mexico among developing countries (54% in 2015) indicates room for further
expansion of the industry.
Finally, the growth acceleration of the North American industry projected in future could theoretically attract new entrants.
From the point of view of customers, the main alternative to property renting is to buy it, rather than lease it. Whether or
not this is more costly is not always easy to determine as the cost calculations are based on many variables, like interest
rates, length of the mortgage/lease or the rent/mortgage agreement. Both interest rates and rents can be unpredictable
in the medium to long term. Also, property owners will have responsibilities for maintenance, which management and
development companies would often include as part of their service - decreasing the cost to the tenants.
However over a lifetime renting is unlikely to be cheaper than the purchase of a home and the rental property is never
owned. Accordingly, the choice between renting and buying a house mainly depends on the interest rates of mortgages
offered. The higher the mortgage rates are, the less appealing the option of purchasing a house becomes.
Uncertainty may be in favor of renting a property as its values could end up being less than the investment on it. A tight
mortgage market along with limited supply and rising property prices has pushed many would-be purchasers into rental
accommodation. Mortgage-lending has been tightened in all countries within this region, making the option of buying a
house more expensive.
The North American real estate industry bears disparities within the countries that comprise it. Analytically, the US and
Canadian industries are highly fragmented, with rivalry to be intensive mainly in largest metropolitan areas. In Mexico,
demand for properties in rural areas was greater in recent years, while competition was evident as rental vacancy rates
surged due to financial crisis on the homebuilding sector. Overall, increasing demand reflected on rising rent prices in the
last two years, alleviates rivalry.
As location of a property is one of the most crucial elements that determine its value on demand grounds, there is a great
competition between real estate players on offering properties in certain locations of high-demand on which larger
profitability exists. This is because demand usually outpaces supply for properties in “valuable” places. However,
diversity is also essential to avoid negative demand shocks based on variable socioeconomic factors that may affect
certain locations.
Financial leverage also plays an important role in terms of acquiring new properties for renting and leasing purposes. As
a matter of fact, liquidity is a competitive advantage for industry players in times of limited access to lending for
developing their property portfolio.
Most importantly overall, rivalry in the real estate industry is dictated by the gap between demand and supply. The
smaller the supply in relation to demand, the less intensive the rivalry. Intuitively, vacancy rates and prices of properties
are indicators of such condition.
Rental vacancy rates have been low but slightly increasing in Canada over the last years, estimated approximately at
3.4%. In detail, Toronto and Vancouver had some of the lowest vacancy rates around 1%. These numbers, however
have been shaped by speculation induced in that period from overseas residents who were interested in buying and
reselling properties that led to inflation of market prices. On the other hand, vacancy rates in the US have decreased in
recent years, estimated at 7% in 2016 compared to 8.7% in 2012. These are the lowest rates in recent years suggesting
increasing demand and less rivalry between players. Indeed, rental prices have significantly increased in the US,
especially in the last two years.
Head office: 4582 South Ulster Street, Suite 1100, Denver, Colorado, USA
Telephone: 1 303 757 8101
Fax: 1 303 759 3226
Website: www.aimco.com
Financial year-end: December
Ticker: AIV
Stock exchange: New York
AIMCO owns, acquires, manages, redevelops and leases conventional and affordable apartment communities in the US.
Its affordable community offerings are principally subsidized by the US Department of Housing and Urban, and the state
housing agencies. The company owns and operates 252 apartment properties with 57,894 apartment homes. Its portfolio
includes garden style, mid-rise and high-rise properties in 22 states in the US, and the District of Columbia.
AIMCO classifies its business operations into two divisions: Conventional Real Estate Operations and Affordable Real
Estate Operations.
The company’s Conventional Real Estate Operations division properties are classified as Conventional Same Store,
Conventional Redevelopment and Development portfolio, and Conventional Acquisition and Conventional portfolio.
The company’s conventional same store properties are those properties which have stabilized occupancy of more than
90% during the fiscal year and prior years, and which are not expected to be sold within 12 months. These properties
generate revenues through rental and other property revenues including rental rates, utility reimbursements and parking
fees. The conventional redevelopment and development properties are those properties which are vacated for
renovations and constructed from the ground up. These properties generate revenues through property management
services performed for unconsolidated partnerships and unrelated parties. Conventional Acquisition properties are those
which were have acquired since 2014; and Other Conventional properties includes communities which have rent control
restrictions; which had not reached and maintained a stabilized level of occupancy; and the operations of properties are
not multifamily; and those communities which are expected to sell in 12 months but have not met the rules as held for
sale.
The company’s Affordable Real Estate Operations division properties are classified as affordable same store and other
affordable. Its affordable same store properties are managed through tax credit agreements and are those which have
reached and maintained a occupancy of 90%. Other affordable properties are those which have not maintained a level of
occupancy and are not subject to tax credit agreements. The division’s rents are generally paid in whole or part by the
government agencies.
Key Metrics
The company recorded revenues of $996 million in the fiscal year ending December 2016, an increase of 1.5%
compared to fiscal 2015. Its net income was $430 million in fiscal 2016, compared to a net income of $249 million in the
preceding year.
Figure 12: Apartment Investment and Management Company: revenues & profitability
Head office: 2 North Riverside Plaza, Suite 400, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Telephone: 1 312 474 1300
Fax: 1 312 454 8703
Website: www.equityapartments.com
Financial year-end: December
Ticker: EQR
Stock exchange: New York
EQR acquires, develops and manages multifamily residential properties in the US. The principal target markets of the
company include Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington DC, Boston, San Diego, San Francisco Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville,
Orlando, Albuquerque, Inland Empire, Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland.
The company classifies its business operations into two divisions: Rental Income; and Fee and Asset Management. The
rental income division is again classified into the Same Store and Non-Same Store divisions.
The property portfolio of the company is classified into three categories based on building types: garden, mid/high-rise,
and military housing.
Garden-style properties are generally two- or three-story buildings, while mid-rise/high-rise properties are more than
three-story buildings. Military housing properties are located at military bases and are fee managed. Both garden-style
and mid-rise/high-rise properties provide their residents with amenities such as a clubhouse, swimming pool, laundry
facilities, cable television access, saunas, whirlpools, spas, sports courts and exercise rooms or other amenities. The
company mainly leases residential property for one year, along with longer duration leases with anchor tenants. The
military housing properties are those properties located on military bases.
EQR also owns and manages apartments at various places in the US, including Alexandria, Atlanta, Boston, Boulder,
Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Hackensack, Hartford, Inland Empire, Jacksonville, Key West, Los Angeles, Miami and New
York. Furthermore, the company has investments in Northern Virginia, Norwalk, Orange County, Orlando, Palm Beach,
Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Providence, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, South Boston, South Plainfield,
Springfield, Stamford, Tacoma, Washington DC, Westchester, West Boston and West New York.
Key Metrics
The company recorded revenues of $2,426 million in the fiscal year ending December 2016, a decrease of 11.6%
compared to fiscal 2015. Its net income was $4,292 million in fiscal 2016, compared to a net income of $870 million in
the preceding year.
Head office: 3700 Kempt Road, Suite 100, Halifax, Nova Scotia , CAN
Telephone: 1 902 453 9000
Fax: 1 902 455 4525
Website: www.killamproperties.com
Financial year-end: December
Ticker: KMP.UN
Stock exchange: Toronto
Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust (Killam Apartment REIT) is a Canada-based real estate trust that is
engaged in the acquisition, management and development of multi-residential apartment buildings and manufactured
home communities.
The company operates through two segments: apartments and manufactured home communities (MHCs).
Killam Apartment REIT's apartment segment acquires, operates, manages and develops multi-family residential
properties across Canada. It offers furnished suites, bachelor, one bedroom, two bedroom and three bedroom
apartments for rent. The company's apartments are located in Atlantic Canada in the following cities Halifax, Dartmouth,
Bedford, Charlottetown, Dieppe, Fredericton, Grand Falls - Windsor, Miramichi, Moncton, Riverview, Saint John, St.
John's, Summerside, and Sydney. It also has apartments in Ontario in the following cities Mississauga, Ottawa, London,
Cambridge and Toronto.
The company's MHCs segment acquires and operates MHC communities in Ontario and Eastern Canada. Killam
Apartment REIT also known as land-lease communities and its properties are located in Nova Scotia, Ontario and
Newfoundland.
Killam Apartment REIT owns around 176 apartment properties and 35 manufactured home communities. The company
owns and manages a total of 13,655 apartment units and 5,165 MHC sites.
The company's subsidiaries include Killam Investments Inc., Killam Investments (PEI) Inc., Killam Properties Apartments
Trust, Killam Properties M.H.C. Trust, 661047 N.B. Inc., Blackshire Court Limited, Blackshire Court Limited Partnership,
Killam Apartment General Partner Ltd., and Killam Properties SGP Ltd.
Key Metrics
The company recorded revenues of $132 million in the fiscal year ending December 2016, an increase of 4.3%
compared to fiscal 2015. Its net income was $51 million in fiscal 2016, compared to a net income of $26 million in the
preceding year.
Table 14: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key financials (C$)
Table 15: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: key financial ratios
Figure 17: Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust: assets & liabilities
Sare Holding SAB de CV is a Mexico based company operating in the real estate sector. The company operates through
wholly owned subsidiaries SARE Bienes Raices SA de CV, Construcciones Aurum SA de CV, Corporativo Inmobiliario
de Servicios SA de CV, SARE Dimex SA de CV and Servicios Administrativos del Pedregal SA de CV, among others.
Sare Holding SAB de CV is active in the development, construction, promotion and sale of mainly residential and tourist
properties across Mexico. The company is especially active in such Mexican states as Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan,
Morelos, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Cuernavaca, Acapulco, Cancun, Guerrero and Queretaro, as well as in the Federal
District.
The company’s structure has four segments: Galaxia, dedicated to the low-income and economy markets; Privanza,
oriented towards the middle-income market; Altitude, Solar Ocean and Solar Villas, which are mainly aimed at the high-
income market, and Marena, which specializes in the development and sale of tourist properties.
Key Metrics
The company recorded revenues of $21 million in the fiscal year ending December 2016, an increase of 90.2%
compared to fiscal 2015. Its net loss was $11 million in fiscal 2016, compared to a net loss of $2 million in the preceding
year.
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