LECTURE (4)

Introduction to Basic Probability Concepts

Rules for combining Probabilities

Rule 1- Independent events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of occurrence of the other event.

Rule 2 – Mutually exclusive events

Tow events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both happen at the same
time. This is shown in the Venn diagram.

S
A B

Rule 3 Complementary events

Two outcomes of an event are complementary if, when one outcome does not
occur, the other must.
This is shown in the Venn diagram
For the outcomes A and B.
In this case P(A) + P(B) = 1 or P(A) = 1 - P(B)

S
A B

N.B. Complementary events are also mutually exclusive but the converse is
not necessarily true.

Rule 4 Conditional events

Conditional events are events that occur conditionally on the occurrence of
another event or events. The conditional probability of A occurring GIVEN B
has occurred is designated as P (A | B) and
 𝑨 𝑩 ⋂
𝑃 𝐴 |𝐵 =
𝑩

A B
U

S
A B

𝐴⋂𝐵 𝐵
𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐵
𝑆 𝑆

𝑆 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵
∴ 𝑃 𝐴|B
𝑆 ⋅𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵
Rule 5 Simultaneous occurrence of events

This means the occurrence of (BOTH A AND B), i.e. (A B)

a) Events are independent
In this case, P (A | B) = P(A), and P (B | A) = P (B)
Therefore, from Rule 4: 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅𝑃 𝐵
b) Events are dependent
In this case, from Rule 4: 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 P (A | B) ∙ P (B) = P (B | A) ∙ P(A)
Rule 6 Occurrence of at leas one of two events,
This means the occurrence of (A or B or BOTH) i.e. (A B), or union of 2
events.

A B
U

S
A B

a) Events are independent but not mutually exclusive

P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A B)
= P (A) + P (B) P (A) . P (B)
b) Events are independent and mutually exclusive
In this case P(A B) = 0
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B)
 n
for n such events, P (A1 A2 .. An) = P (Ai)
i =1

c) Events are not independent

P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A B)
= P (A) + P (B) (A | B) . P (B)
= P (A) + P (B) (B | A) . P (A)

Rule 7 Application of Conditional Probability

If event A is conditionally dependent on the occurrence of a number of events
Bi, each of which is mutually exclusive then:

B1 A
B4
B2
B3
P (A B1) = P (A | B1) . P (B1)
P (A B2) = P (A | B2) . P (B2)
.
.
.
P (A Bi) = P (A | Bi) . P (Bi)
.
.
.
P (A Bn) = P (A | Bn) . P (Bn)
n n
giving P (A B i) = P (A | Bi) . P (Bi)
i =1 i =1

or

𝑃 𝐴 P A | Bi ⋅ P Bi

If in reliability terms, A represents success of the system and B represents two

mutually exclusive states of a component, success and failure, then

P (system success) = P (system success | B good) ⋅ P (B good)

+ P (system success | B bad) ⋅ P (B bad)

A complementary equation exists for system failure, Such as:

P (system failure) = P (system failure | B good) ⋅ P (B good)

+ P (system failure | B bad) ⋅ P (B bad)
Example
(a) Two generators each is rated at 50 MW with a probability of 0.9
availability are supplying a load of 100 MW. What is the
probability that this load will be met?.
(b) If the two previous generators are replaced with two generators
of 100 MW each with the same availability, What is the
probability that this load of 100 MW will be met?.
Solution
(a) P = 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.81
(b) P = 0.9 + 0.9 - 0.9 × 0.9 = 1.80 0.81 = 0.99
[i.e. system reliability in terms of availability has increased 22%]

Introduction to Power System Reliability Evaluation

Availability (AV) and Forced Outage Rate (FOR)

Unit

Available Unavailable

In Shut Planned Forced

service down outage outage

Total time

t1 t2 t3

𝒕𝟏 + 𝒕𝟐 + 𝒕𝟑
𝑭𝑶𝑹 =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆

Experience has shown that no machine is so reliable and dependable that it is

available and in operating conditions all the time. That means that the machine
needs to be off service (out of service) for maintenance or it may be off due to
some problems.

Scheduled outages (planned outages): purposely unit is taken out of service for
maintenance or replacement.

Forced outages: when unit(s) is out of service due to failure called also
unscheduled (unplanned) outage.

The last one is actually the most severe and important factor in power system
planning and operation, and can be defined as

𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒

𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑔 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝐹𝑂𝑅
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒

Therefore, Availability can be defined as:

𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒
𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐴𝑉
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒

From the above definitions, it is obvious that:

𝐹𝑂𝑅 + 𝐴𝑉 = 1

The o e m a ailabili and fo ced o age a e ep e en p obabili of

events occurrence. From the probability theory, it is known that the product
AV1x AV2 represents the probability that both unit 1 and unit 2 are
simultaneously in operation during a specified period of time, also

AV1 AV2 AV3 means 1 & 2 & 3 are in operation at the same time

FOR1 FOR2 FOR3 means that units 1 & 2 & 3 are out of service in the
same time.
AV1 FOR2 means the probability that unit 1 is available (in service) and unit
2 is unavailable (out of service) in the same time.

Example
For the following units, find out the availability
a) One unit of 300 MW
b) Two units of 150 MW each
c) Three units of 100 MW each
The FOR for each unit is 0.02
Solution
 a) For 1 unit (1) (2) (1) (2)
Capacity out Capacity in Availability
0 300 0.98 0.98
30 0 0.02 0.02
b) For 2 units
0 300 0.98 0.98 0.9604
150 150 0.98 0.02 0.0196
150 150 0.02 0.98 0.0196
300 0 0.02 0.02 0.0004
c) For 3 units
0 300 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.941192
100 200 0.02 0.98 0.98
0.98 0.02 0.98 0.057624
0.98 0.98 0.02
200 100 (0.02 0.02 0.98) 3 0.001176
300 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.000008

𝑛
𝑝 𝑟 𝐴𝑉 𝐹𝑂𝑅
𝑟
Where,

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑟 𝑛 𝑟 ! 𝑟!
p = probability of system availability.
n = no of generating units in the system.
r = no of unavailable units (units being on forced outage, from 0 to n).
AV = availability (probability of unit being available and in service).
FOR = Forced Outage Rate (probability of unit being out of service).
Considering system C, as an example, the probability of 2 units being out of
service i.e. a capacity of 200 MW out of service, is
3 3 2 2
𝑝 2 0.98 0.02
2
3!
(0.98) (.004) = 0.01176
3 2 ! 2!

Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT)

The COPT is a table contains all the capacity states in an ascending order of
outages magnitude. Each outage (capacity state) is multiplied by its probability. If
the system contains identical units, Binomial distribution can be used. If the units
are not identical, the procedure in the following example can be used.

Example (1):
A generating system has the following units:
(a) 10 MW (FOR = 0.02).
(b) 15 MW (FOR = 0.03).
(c) 20 MW (FOR = 0.05).
It is required to build the COPT for the system.

Solution:
COPT For units (a) will be as follows:
cap out probability
0 0.98 0.97 0.95 = 0.90307
10 0.02 0.97 0.95 = 0.01843
15 0.98 0.03 0.95 = 0.02793
20 0.98 0.97 0.05 = 0.04753
25 0.02 0.03 0.95 = 0.00057
30 0.02 0.97 0.05 = 0.00097
35 0.98 0.03 0.05 = 0.00147
45 0.02 0.03 0.05 = 0.00003
-----------
1.00000
Example (2):
A generating system has the following data:
(a) 2X20 MW and (b) 1X30 MW. The FOR for each unit is 0.1. It is required to
establish the COPT for the system.

Solution:
COPT For units (a) will be as follows:
cap out probability
0 0.92 = 0.81
20 2(0.9 0.1) = 0.18
40 0.12 = 0.01
-------
1.00
COPT For units (b) will be as follows:
cap out probability
0 0.9
30 0.1
----
1.0
The two COPT can be combined in one single COPT, as follows:

Cap out probability

0 0.81 0.9 = 0.729
20 0.18 0.9 = 0.162
30 0.81 0.1 = 0.081
40 0.01 0.9 = 0.009
50 0.18 0.1 = 0.018
60 ---------------------
70 0.01 0.1 = 0.001
--------
1.000