The FPL Guide 2019/20

By FPLFootballAdvice
Table of Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4
Who we are ............................................................................................................................. 4
Chapter 1 – FPL basics ...................................................................................................... 5
What is FPL? ............................................................................................................................ 5
Making transfers ...................................................................................................................... 5
When should transfers be made? ...................................................................................................5
Rolling a transfer .............................................................................................................................6
Burning a transfer ...........................................................................................................................6
Taking points hits ............................................................................................................................7
FPL Chips ................................................................................................................................. 8
Wildcard ..........................................................................................................................................9
Free Hit ............................................................................................................................................9
Bench Boost ................................................................................................................................. 10
Triple Captain chip during a double gameweek vs single gameweek ......................................... 10
Bonus points .......................................................................................................................... 12
Goalkeepers ................................................................................................................................. 13
Defenders ..................................................................................................................................... 14
Midfielders ................................................................................................................................... 15
Forwards ...................................................................................................................................... 16
Is team value important to FPL success? ................................................................................. 17
Building team value...................................................................................................................... 18
Chapter 2 – Analysing historical data ..............................................................................19
2018/19 season analysis......................................................................................................... 19
Goalkeepers ................................................................................................................................. 19
Defenders ..................................................................................................................................... 20
Midfielders ................................................................................................................................... 21
Forwards ...................................................................................................................................... 22
Notable players outside of the Dream Team ............................................................................... 24
Season-by-season analysis ..................................................................................................... 26
Defenders are scoring more points ............................................................................................. 27
2015/16 was an anomaly ............................................................................................................. 28
Value in the strikers ..................................................................................................................... 28
Expensive midfielders justify their cost ....................................................................................... 28
‘Break Out’ Players ................................................................................................................ 29
Chapter 3 - The importance of stats ................................................................................31
Common underlying stats ...................................................................................................... 31
Analysing underlying stats for attacking players ...................................................................... 31
Analysing underlying stats for attacking players ...................................................................... 34
Can underlying stats help FPL decision making? ...................................................................... 34
Chapter 4 - FPL account top tips ......................................................................................35
Planet #FPL Podcast ............................................................................................................... 35
The Fantasy Plonker Podcast .................................................................................................. 35
Andy Martin .......................................................................................................................... 36
Let’s Talk Soccer..................................................................................................................... 36
 Take The Hit #FPL Podcast ...................................................................................................... 37
FPL Cougars ........................................................................................................................... 37
FPL Prince .............................................................................................................................. 38
FPL General............................................................................................................................ 38
Arrow FPL .............................................................................................................................. 38
The Art of the Dive FPL Podcast .............................................................................................. 39
Heskibo ................................................................................................................................. 40
Adam Hopcroft ...................................................................................................................... 40
FPL Reuser ............................................................................................................................. 41
Foomni analytics .................................................................................................................... 43
FPL Fairy ................................................................................................................................ 43
El Statto ................................................................................................................................. 44
Chapter 5 - Choosing your GW1 squad ............................................................................45
Balance between budget and premium players....................................................................... 45
Promoted sides and their risk ................................................................................................. 45
Consider the opening fixtures ................................................................................................. 46
Proven player’s v risks ............................................................................................................ 47
Monitor pre season................................................................................................................ 47
Chapter 6 – 2019/20 season analysis ...............................................................................48
Player price analysis ............................................................................................................... 48
Goalkeepers ................................................................................................................................. 48
Defenders ..................................................................................................................................... 49
Midfielders ................................................................................................................................... 50
Forwards ...................................................................................................................................... 52
Personal watch list ................................................................................................................. 53
VAR introduction ................................................................................................................... 55
Set piece takers ..................................................................................................................... 57
Arsenal ......................................................................................................................................... 57
Aston Villa .................................................................................................................................... 57
Bournemouth ............................................................................................................................... 57
Brighton........................................................................................................................................ 58
Burnley ......................................................................................................................................... 58
Chelsea ......................................................................................................................................... 58
Crystal Palace ............................................................................................................................... 58
Everton ......................................................................................................................................... 58
Leicester City ................................................................................................................................ 58
Liverpool....................................................................................................................................... 58
Man City ....................................................................................................................................... 58
Man United .................................................................................................................................. 59
Newcastle ..................................................................................................................................... 59
Norwich ........................................................................................................................................ 59
Sheffield United ........................................................................................................................... 59
Southampton ............................................................................................................................... 59
Tottenham.................................................................................................................................... 59
Watford ........................................................................................................................................ 59
West Ham ..................................................................................................................................... 60
Wolves .......................................................................................................................................... 60
Chapter 7 - Mental health ...............................................................................................61
Thank you ......................................................................................................................62
Useful resources .............................................................................................................63

Introduction
Welcome to the FPL Guide created by FPLFootballAdvice, a guide designed to help FPL
players of all abilities. We created this guide in the hope to try and help those managers
who want to expand their knowledge of the game ahead of the 2019/20 season.

This guide hasn’t been created to establish the golden rules of FPL that all managers must
adhere too. Instead, we hope that this guide provides some added value to regular
questions that managers ask throughout every FPL season.

Who we are

FPLFootballAdvice was created back in August 2018 to provide FPL managers with content
and advice throughout the season. Our website – www.footballadvice.co.uk - is the platform
where we created all of our content ranging from guest Q&A articles to our top 5 picks
series.

We have also established our Twitter and Instagram accounts to join the FPL Community
and engage with everyone involved. This year, we have branched out our content, now
producing weekly podcasts and YouTube videos. We can speak on behalf of everyone when
we say what a great community it is and the amount of brilliant content available is endless.

The inspiration for this guide came midway through the previous FPL season, as we noticed
managers asking similar questions on a regular basis. We thought that by creating this guide
in preparation for the 2019/20 season, it will act as a reference for those managers that
have these questions. It also is a great opportunity for us to promote some other brilliant
FPL accounts that you should ensure you are following before the start of the new FPL
season.

Our 2018/19 FPL season, like many managers was full of highs and lows. We finished the
season with an overall rank of 66,525, which all things considered we were happy with.
Sometimes managers can forget the amount of managers that play FPL, being an ever-
growing game year on year. For those that engage with FPL through social media channels,
it’s common to be exposed to managers who are having exceptional seasons. Our advice is
to not compare yourself to others online, as great ranks - such as 100,000 - can be
demonised by the volume of successful managers on platforms such as Twitter and
Instagram.

The previous season was a lesson for us in understanding FPL value and the areas to focus
on when making decisions. Throughout this guide, we hope to share these thoughts and
provide the tools managers need to achieve your best ever rank this season.
Chapter 1 – FPL basics
In this chapter, we highlight the FPL basics that all managers need to know ranging from
free transfers to FPL chips. Whether a manager is having their first or tenth FPL season, the
basics remain an important part.

What is FPL?

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is a free, online game that allows players to become fantasy
managers, tasked with selecting a squad of real-life players. With a £100m budget available,
managers must select an initial 15-man squad consisting of 2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 5
midfielders and 3 strikers. The other limitation is that only 3 players from one club can be
selected – choosing wisely is important!

When choosing your formation, there are a number of combinations that can be used to
best suit the players owned. The defence can be a minimum of 3 or a maximum of 5 players,
whereas the midfield can have as little as 2 players, 5 the maximum. Managers must play
with at least 1 forward, with the option of playing all 3 available.

Managers are automatically entered into the overall global league, along with their
associated country and supported team. Private leagues can be created to compete against
friends and any others from all over the world.

Making transfers

When should transfers be made?

A week between gameweeks can sometimes feel an eternity, and temptations can creep in
to make early changes to those squads. With transfer deadlines always an hour before the
first gameweek fixture, it provides managers with ample time to assess all the information
available to them.

That’s why when making gameweek transfers, we highly recommend making them as close
to that gameweek deadline as possible. The reason being for this is that the risk associated
with that transfer decreases significantly in comparison to an early transfer.

For example, boredom can cause a manager to make an early transfer during the week.
However, what has been the case many times is that unforeseen circumstances arise during
gameweeks. In these situations, those managers that have played an early transfer are at
risk of having their squad affected with no options available other than a points hit.
Reducing risk in FPL is a big factor that can be controlled, ranging from the timings of the
transfers to the players selected. We don’t see any need in rushing into transfers unless a
manager has the following situation:

• A player’s price is dropping; therefore, the player needs to be sold before the money
invested in him is lost.
• A targeted player is going up in price and you want to beat the rush as you can’t
afford otherwise.
• Life situations mean you can play the game any later than that moment.

Outside of these situations, we recommend holding that transfer until the last minute is a
smart FPL move.

Rolling a transfer

Managers are given 1 free transfer every gameweek. However, if a manager doesn’t choose
to use this free transfer, they have the option to roll 1 over to the following gameweek. This
will therefore entitle a manager to 2 free transfers, providing more freedom to change the
current squad.

The maximum transfers allowed is 2, therefore you can’t roll another transfer if you already
have 2 that gameweek. So if you have free 2 transfers available in gameweek 5, and you
don’t use either, you will have 2 free transfers available in gameweek 6.

We recommend managers taking this option when they have multiple changes they need to
make to their squads. Of course, sometimes players are injured or lose their starting roles,
forcing managers into making unexpected transfers.

Burning a transfer

Within the FPL community, burning a transfer can be seen as an unthinkable act. Burning a
transfer means when you have 2 free transfers available to you, and you choose to not
make a transfer (burn) instead of using 1. For many this can be deemed a waste and a
missed opportunity to transfer out a player from your squad.

While burning a transfer isn’t ideal, sometimes there are situations where a transfer isn’t
required. Last season we had a similar scenario where we were happy with our squad for
that particular gameweek, and didn’t feel a transfer was necessary. However, with the
knowledge of having 2 free transfers available, we chose to make an unnecessary transfer
which inevitably backfired. This move wouldn’t have happened if it wasn’t for the
perception that ‘burning’ a transfer is a bad FPL move.

This perception needs to be dispelled this season, as like many FPL decisions, they vary
depending on each manager’s squad. In some cases, like ours mentioned, the use of a free
transfer can harm your squad rather than benefit it.
Taking points hits

After establishing the role of the free transfer, managers do have the option of making more
than their allotted free transfers in any given gameweek. This however does come at a
points cost.

Each transfer made after you've already used your free transfer(s) results in a 4-point hit.
These deductions are not reflected in your final gameweek score. Rather, they come off
your overall total points. This makes hits a bit sneaky in that you don't necessarily see the
immediate result of taking them.

So should you avoid taking hits completely?

In an ideal world, a manager would take no points hits, use the free transfers affectively and
finish with a great rank. However, we have played the game long enough to know things
don’t go smoothly throughout a season, and points hits sometimes become essential.

Uncontrollable factors, such as injury, rotation or lack of form can force your hand in making
more transfers than first expected. While it isn’t ideal to take a points hit, it can be a tactical
decision that results in a positive outcome.

When taking a points hit, it is always best to approach the decision considering the current
points potential and the points potential of the replacement.

Example

If a starting player gets injured requiring you to take a points hit to transfer him out, it will
cost 4 points. If the player you replace him with scores a general 2 points, it will only be a 2-
point hit.

And, remember, those points come off your total score and not the gameweek score.

But, if you have a player (or players) on your bench that get regular starts, you can often
times avoid the need for taking an unplanned hit. More about bench strategies further into
this playbook.
FPL Chips

FPL chips can sometimes define a manager’s season if utilized effectively, however doing
this can be harder than planned. Each managers starts the season with 4 chips available to
them:

1) Wildcard – Once activated you can make unlimited transfers for that gameweek
without taking a points hit. A manager gets 2 wildcards throughout the season, the
first available after GW1 until GW20. If this wildcard is not used by a manager, it
cannot be carried over into the second half of the season. The second wildcard is
available after GW20, and is available through to the final gameweek of the season.
Once confirmed, the Wildcard chip cannot be cancelled.

2) Triple Captain – This chip trebles your captain’s gameweek points as opposed to the
traditional double. The Triple Captain chip can only be used once throughout the
season.

3) Free Hit – For one gameweek, you can make unlimited transfers to your side without
any points hit. Once that gameweek has finished, your squad will revert back to the
squad prior to activating your Free Hit. Any saved transfers will be lost and revert
back to one free transfer for the following gameweek. Managers can’t benefit from
any price changes in players during their Free Hit squad. Similar to a Wildcard, once
activated the chip cannot be cancelled.

4) Bench Boost – When activated, the Bench Boost chip counts the score for all 15
players in your squad, effectively utilizing your bench along with starting 11. This
chip, like the others, can only be used once throughout the season.

A popular tactic by many managers is playing these chips during double and blank
gameweeks. A double gameweek occurs when at least two teams play two fixtures during a
gameweek. For example, a double gameweek could look like:

Tottenham v Southampton
Norwich v Watford
Tottenham v Watford

Double gameweeks usually occur a couple of times throughout a season due to

postponements and cup interruptions. These gameweeks provide managers the opportunity
of potentially scoring double their usual score if they select the right players.

So while a double gameweek occurs when teams play their rearranged games on the same
week as existing fixtures, blank gameweeks occur during these postponements. Blanks can
sometimes see as little as 6 teams play during these gameweeks if the fixtures need to be
rearranged. Cup competitions like the FA cup and Carabao cup are usually the reason for
initial league fixtures being changed.
Thankfully for managers, the double and blank gameweeks are usually notified in plenty of
time. This provides time to prepare your squad and decide whether a FPL chip is necessary
in the upcoming situation.

In order to plan for these gameweeks effectively, we recommend following @BenCrellin on

Twitter. Ben is a long time FPL manager who creates excellent spreadsheets to help people
navigate the FPL schedule.

Wildcard

It is subjective as to which chip is the most effective, as this depends ultimately on which
chip provided the most points and had the most impact on your overall ranking (or
gameweek score if you're playing Head to Head) after all chips have been used. However,
we think that the Wildcard is the most powerful chip available to a manager. The reason for
this is because of the ability to change your entire side without the consequences of a
points hit. It effectively allows you to reset and start fresh.

For many, the Wildcard is an opportunity to have a new lease on their FPL lives if the squad
becomes full of underperforming players. We suggest not using the Wildcard chip unless
you have a significant amount of players to ship out of your side. 3 or 4 players can be
transferred with a 12 point hit and while this is a big points hit, we recommend playing the
wildcard once you plan on transferring out 5/6+ players.

Unlike some of the other chips, timing of this chip is usually very dependent on the
individual and their squad. An early Wildcard can sometimes be a popular strategy for some
managers, with early risks not coming off. The first international break of the season
presents an interesting and compelling opportunity to play the Wildcard. This is because it
gives you a 2-week break to assess your FPL options.

Due to the unlimited transfers of the Wildcard, you can use the chip to own players that are
rising in price, with the potential of getting a £0.1m price rise to add to squad value. This will
give you additional money to spend on your final wildcard squad at the end of the break, a
tactic used by many managers.

Again, as mentioned previously there is no perfect time to use the Wildcard. It should be
relevant to your own squad, but most importantly used when you need to make mass
changes to the side.

Free Hit

The Free Hit chip is arguably the best chip after the Wildcard, also known as a ‘mini-
wildcard’ to some managers. While the Wildcard use can be dictated by your squad
performance, the Free Hit can be based more around the upcoming fixtures. For many
managers, the double or blank gameweeks are the obvious choices when deciding when to
play your Free Hit.
Blank gameweeks can sometimes leave managers with a bare squad, in many cases with as
little as 4 or 5 players featuring. Without the proper planning for the blanks, these situations
can require the free hit chip in order to field a full side. While this will inevitably score you
more points than not playing the chip, the pool of players to select from is naturally reduced
due to many not playing.

Therefore, playing the Free Hit during a double gameweek gives a manager every FPL option
available to create their side. Planning for the double gameweeks are important in order to
own as many players that feature in both fixtures. However, sometimes this can come at the
expense of selling single gameweek players that managers don’t want to part with.

The Free Hit in turn gives you the opportunity to create a squad with as many double
gameweek players as you can afford. Naturally, owning 15 players that play over both
fixtures increases the opportunity for a manager to score more FPL points.

We personally prefer using this tactic of playing a Free Hit chip over a double gameweek
due to the increased potential of FPL points. And during these blank gameweeks, preparing
in advance to ensure we own a healthy amount of players featuring over that period. While
it feels counterintuitive, it is OK to have less than 11 players play for your team in a blank
gameweek, especially if it means not having to part with players that you'll want back once
the blank is over.

Bench Boost

The Bench Boost chip can be a powerful chip for managers, however utilizing it to its full
effect usually proves to be a tougher task than the other chips. Commonly, the FPL bench is
made up of cheap players that either come off the bench for their respective clubs or are
steady, low scoring assets. Therefore, playing your chip with these types of players usually
doesn’t yield the biggest FPL return.

In order to fully utilize the Bench Boost, you need to ensure that you have 15 playing players
in your squad – easier said than done. A tactic that we have used in the past and found
effective is using it 1 or 2 gameweeks after your second Wildcard. Your Wildcard squad will
hopefully be full of in-form, starting players, perfect for a Bench Boost.

Similar to the other chips, using the Bench Boost over a double gameweek will give you an
opportunity of having 15 players playing up to 180 minutes each, as opposed to the usual 90
minutes.

Triple Captain chip during a double gameweek vs single gameweek

For those that are not aware of the Triple Captain chip, it is a chip that triples your captain’s
score, as opposed to the usual double. Like all of the chips available, it can only be used
once throughout the season, so picking the right time is very important.

Although the Triple Captain chip seems very powerful, we think on some occasions its effect
can be diminished. Tripling the captaincy points adds an additional 33% of points to those
that use the ordinary captain on the same player. However, the Triple Captain chip is usually
used on players that are very likely to score big points over that gameweek. Because of this,
they are also very popular picks for many managers and therefore affect the power of the
Triple Captain chip.

The most effective way to climb rank is to play your triple captain chip on a low ownership
player, which in itself makes it a bit of a differential. A debate throughout the FPL
community, is whether it’s best to play the Triple Captain chip during a double or single
gameweek. Both have their arguments and we are going to highlight these to come to a
conclusion.

The advantage for those playing their Triple Captain chip on a player during the double
gameweek, is that the FPL ceiling is higher. A player has the potential to play 180 minutes in
comparison to 90 minutes in a single gameweek. The disadvantage with two matches is that
rotation is more of a common factor for many teams, especially those with big squads such
as Man City. While the potential of playing 180 minutes is there, player’s gametime can be
unpredictable depending on the fixture and result.

Firstly, it’s best to look back at the highest points scorers of each gameweek:

GW1 – Perreya 16 GW20 – Pogba 18

GW2 – Aguero 20 GW21 – Deeney 15
GW3 – Mitrovic 16 GW22 – Rice 15
GW4 – Cedric 12 GW23 – Schar 21
GW5 – Hazard 20 GW24 - King 16
GW6 – Matip 15 GW25 (double GW) – Laporte 20
GW7 – Maguire 18 GW26 – Sterling 18
GW8 – Doherty 15 GW27 – Deulofeu 23
GW9 – Pickford 15 GW28 – Van Dijk 20
GW10 – Barkley 17 GW29 – Rice 15
GW11 – Sterling 21 GW30 – Sterling 21
GW12 – Foyth 15 GW31 – Grant 13
GW13 – Sane 19 GW32 (double GW) – Eriksen 20
GW14 – Aubameyang 16 GW33 – Vardy 16
GW15 – Mahrez 13 GW34 (double GW) – Moura 21
GW16 – Salah 21 GW35 (double GW) – Jonny 17
GW17 – Mkhitaryan 14 GW36 – Salah 19
GW18 – Son 21 GW37 – Luiz 15
GW19 – Walker-Peters 18 GW38 – Mendez-Liang 16

This data provides great information on which types of players, on average, score the
highest points each gameweek. From this data, we have identified the following points:

• 21 players were from ‘top 6’ sides

• 1 goalkeeper
 • 13 defenders
• 17 midfielders
• 7 forwards
• Sterling featured the most times with 3 gameweek high scores
• Deulofeu scored the highest gameweek score in GW27 with 23 points including a hat
trick, an assist and maximum bonus points.

From these observations, it is clear that the midfielders were the big scorers throughout the
season. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, with the midfielders scoring 1 more point than
forwards for a goal, and getting a single point for a clean sheet.

While a double gameweek offers more potential gametime, it was Deulofeu in a single
gameweek who top scored for the season. His score also highlighted the variance of any
player achieving the highest score, not just players in the ‘top 6’ sides. Players such as Foyth
and Walker-Peters are great examples of how any player in the game can achieve the
highest points in a gameweek, and how hard it can be to predict these players.

We think that a double gameweek naturally provides more opportunity for points when
playing the Triple Captain chip. However, the fixture is the most important factor whether it
be a single or double gameweek, proved by Deulofeu. Managers shouldn’t be put off by a
single gameweek fixture, as it can reap as many points as a double gameweek.

Bonus points

Bonus points are a controversial aspect of FPL that many managers pull their hair out over
how these are calculated. For those that still don’t understand how they are determined,
here is a brief overview:

“The BPS utilizes a range of statistics supplied by Opta that capture actions on the pitch, to
create a performance score for every player.

The players with the top three BPS in a given match receive bonus points - three points to the
highest-scoring player, two to the second best and one to the third.”
(Quoted from www.premierleague.com/fantasy)
(Sourced from premierleague.com)

The graphic above highlights the scoring system Fantasy Premier League use to determine
bonus points. Each metric is relevant to all players; however, some are more beneficial to
certain positions on the pitch to others.

Goalkeepers

Bonus points significantly influence the end of season total for players, and naturally are
awarded to those players that finish with high points totals. However, goalkeepers are
different to every other position, as the system rewards the amount of saves made.
The likes of Alisson and Ederson both finished with the highest points total, but their total
bonus points weren't consistent with their overall points. Sides dominating games naturally
mean goalkeepers are less involved than those that play for the lower sides.

The leading bonus point scoring goalkeepers were:

Player Bonus Points FPL Points Saves

Fabianski 15 143 148
Pickford 13 161 94
Ryan 11 104 97
Foster 11 129 127
Dubravka 10 131 95

3 of the top 5 were goalkeepers in sides that finished in the bottom half of the table. Of
course, clean sheet potential should be the most important variable when deciding on
which goalkeeper to choose. However, due to team, strategies premium goalkeepers are
not necessarily the most attractive FPL options for managers.

£4.5m goalkeepers provide the additional funds to spread across the squad, therefore
naturally these players are found in the bottom half sides. When clean sheets aren’t regular
for these types of sides, we recommend considering the bonus point potential of that
budget goalkeeper. Those bonus points from saves can help cover the lack of clean sheets
over the course of a season.

Defenders

It’s no surprise that Robertson scored the most bonus points during the season, managing
29 including 4 maximum scores. Alexander-Arnold trailed on 25 bonus points, while Digne
completed the top 3 with 22.

Of the top 10 defenders for bonus points, 7 are in fact full backs for their respective clubs.
The only centre backs to feature are Van Dijk (22), Luiz (19) and Laporte (16). Decisions on
which defenders to choose shouldn’t be decided based upon bonus points, but the
information does support the value of ownership in full backs.

Player Bonus Points FPL Points

Robertson 29 213
Alexander-Arnold 25 185
Digne 22 158
Pereira 22 146
Van Dijk 22 208
Alonso 21 161
Luiz 19 164
7 of the top 10 scoring defenders were all full backs, and the attacking potential they offer
shouldn’t be overlooked. While a handful of centre backs have matched their scores, we
think a movement towards full backs should be a priority for the upcoming FPL season. The
bonus points system rewards aspects of the game like ‘successful open play crosses’, which
full backs are much more likely to do than centre backs.

Whereas the goalkeepers were full of budget FPL players, it was a different story for the
defenders regarding bonus points. Digne and Alexander-Arnold were the cheapest
defenders starting the season at £5.0m - however it can be argued that Alexander-Arnold
was seriously under-priced. Outside of these two, the rest are all considered premium
defensive options.

Midfielders

Interestingly, the midfielders provided more variance in regards to highest bonus points in
comparison to total points. Sterling topped the charts with 25 bonus points, but closely
followed by Milivojevic on 24 points. One of the bonus point rewards is ‘scoring the winning
goal in a match’, something that the Crystal Palace midfielder done 3 times last season.

Player Bonus Points FPL Points

Sterling 25 234
Milivojevic 24 166
Mane 24 231
Fraser 23 181
SIgurdsson 20 182
Pogba 19 179
Salah 18 259

The stand-out player from the list is the rank of Mo Salah based on bonus points. After
finishing as the leading midfield points scorer, it would seem logical for him to be in the top
3 of bonus points. Finishing 6th however, highlights that there is something about Salah’s
game that isn’t rewarded by the bonus point system.

After looking at the data, Salah appears to be a player of extremes – scoring very high points
but also scoring high in other tables. The bonus point system deducts points against
attacking players for the following, and Salah ranks high in each:

• Offsides – Finished 7th with 27

• Being tackled – Finished 2nd being tackled 119 times
• Big chances missed – Joint 5th with 16
• Shots off target – 54% of his shots being off target.

We don’t think that this data should put you off from owning Mo Salah because of his high
attempts. It’s clear that the bonus system can be harsh towards very attacking midfielders,
but these players naturally score more goals and assists therefore have a better opportunity
of being in the bonus points.

Looking at the starting prices of each player, the midfielders provide more of a range of
prices in the highest bonus scoring players. Sterling and Salah were the highest priced
premiums, however the likes of Fraser (£5.5m) and Sigurdsson (£7.5m) show the value can
be found outside of the premiums.

Forwards

Aubameyang bucked the trend of what happened with midfielders, by finishing the highest
points scoring forward along with most bonus points (32). While Aubameyang missed the
most big chances of any forward, his game thrives on being on the end of attacks rather
than necessarily creating the attacks. Therefore, he doesn’t have the risk of being deducted
bonus points for being tackled. The same principle goes for Vardy who finished 2nd highest
bonus points with 31.

Player Bonus Points FPL Points

Aubameyang 32 205
Vardy 31 174
Jimenez 31 181
Aguero 26 201
Firmino 24 160
Kane 24 160

Unlike the goalkeepers, the highest scoring bonus points were also most of the highest
scoring points totals. This is a reflection of how the bonus points reward strikers, with a goal
scored by a forward being the biggest reward with 24 bps. In comparison, midfielders get 18
bps and defenders 12 bps for a goal. Goals are the biggest reward within the bonus point
system, highlighting why the likes of Aubameyang and Vardy surpassed 30 bonus points.
Is team value important to FPL success?

Every manager is given a £100m budget to spend on players at the start of the FPL season.
After the first gameweek, players can either go up, down or remain the same price
throughout the entire season depending on the volume of transfers in or out. For example,
a player can be valued at £5.0m before a gameweek, and after scoring a hat trick, see his
price rise to £5.1m overnight due to managers buying the player due to their form.

Price rises and falls are a great FPL indicator of player’s form. Players can rise or fall a
maximum of £0.1m per night, a maximum of £0.3m per week. Therefore, owning these
players rising in price early on can really give you an upper hand on other managers.

Identifying when a player’s price will rise or fall can be a difficult aspect of the game. Useful
price prediction tools such as fplstatistics.co.uk and fantasyfootballfix.com are examples of
sites you should be monitoring.

Many managers assume a price might rise or fall and in turn make an unnecessary, rushed
decision. Using these tools will help predict prices and justify transfers that you make. They
will also ensure that managers do not get caught out by a surprise price rise or fall, making
sure the budget is used effectively.

The sale and purchase of a player can sometimes be a confusing process for managers that
don’t understand the rules. A player’s price in that moment doesn’t reflect the value that
you can sell that player for. This is dictated by the price that you also purchased that player
at the time, a rise of £0.2m gaining you a £0.1m profit.

For example, you could buy a player at £5.0m and see their price rise to £6.0m over the
period that you own them. If you decide to sell this player at this price, the sell-on value is
£5.5m – a profit of £0.5m. If the player was valued at £5.5m, the sale value would be £5.2m
– a profit of £0.2m.

The price rise and fall of owned players affects the team value that your squad is worth. A
side of in-form players will naturally have a high team value due to the popularity of
managers buying these players.

The benefit of owning players that have big price rises, is that it provides you with more
money for your transfers. The additional money can make players that were previously too
expensive, now attainable due to the sale value of those in-form players.

Identifying a form player early on will avoid you playing the higher price for the same player
a few gameweeks later. An example of this was during the early reign of Solskjear where
Man United enjoyed a brilliant run of form. Pogba was at the heart of this and saw his price
rocket from £7.8m in GW18, £8.6m in GW23 and finally £9.0m in GW29.

For those that bought him early in GW18, they would have profited £0.4m by GW23 and
£0.6m by GW29. If you were a manager like us, then buying him in GW23 meant paying a
premium in comparison to the early movers – missing out on £0.4m team value.
So while identifying players before they rise in price can benefit your available budget, it
doesn’t necessarily translate into FPL success.

In addition to performance affecting a player's FPL price, market activity is a major

influencer. If a large amount of managers transfers in a player prior to an upcoming
gameweek, it could very well increase that player's price. And it works the other way too: If
a lot of managers transfer a player out, his FPL price could drop. So keeping an eye on
transfer activity can help indicate price changes.

Building team value

If managers are looking to build team value throughout the season, then we recommend
the following tips:

Follow the trend – ‘bandwagons’ are an easy way to accumulate team value, especially in
the early stages of the season. Players like Jimenez, Wan-Bissaka and Doherty are perfect
examples of significant price rises throughout the season. While identifying these players is
hard initially, don’t fall behind in owning them if they continue their form.

Wildcard early – playing the Wildcard chip early can help managers get hold of those
players that were missed in the opening gameweeks. It can be easy to build team value
when managers select an entire new team consisting of in-form, in-demand players. These
types of players are naturally more likely to see a price rise due to the volume of managers
transferring them in. Wildcarding over the international break especially will make building
team value easier. The extra week of being able to rotate between player rises and falls can
see a significant amount of value accumulated over this period.

Don’t get attached – some managers become emotionally attached to players that can see
their value plummet while continuing to own them. Of course, some proven players such as
Sterling and Salah can justify holding onto them throughout these periods. However, for the
majority it is a smart move to jump off these players once their form and value declines.
Moving fast will reduce the investment lost in a player, and provide more funds to purchase
a replacement for the squad.
Chapter 2 – Analysing historical data

2018/19 season analysis

In order to plan for the upcoming season, analysing the previous one is an important thing
to do. In this section, we will highlight the top points scorers from the previous season,
including those that enjoyed an impressive season. We will also analyse the underlying stats
of some of these players, and how they performed in comparison to their actual output.

Every week in FPL, there is a ‘dream team’ that feature the highest scoring players for that
specific gameweek. Equally, at the end of the season the same principle occurs, creating a
‘dream team’ of the highest scoring players throughout the campaign.

Below is the 2018/19 dream team consisting of the highest scoring players:

2018/19
Player FPL Points Starting Price
Alisson 176 £5.5m
Robertson 213 £6.0m
Van Dijk 208 £6.0m
Alexander-Arnold 185 £5.0m
Salah 259 £13.0m
Hazard 238 £10.5m
Sterling 234 £11.0m
Mane 231 £9.5m
Sigurdsson 182 £7.5m
Aubameyang 205 £11.0m
Aguero 201 £11.0m
Bench
Ederson 169 £5.5m
Laporte 177 £5.5m
Luiz 164 £5.0m
Jimenez 181 £5.5m

Salah made it back-to-back seasons of being the highest scoring player in the game. He fell
short of his incredible 303 points last season, but still accumulated 259 points, which would
have still been the second highest points last season.

Goalkeepers

A common theme in the 2018/19 dream team is the inclusion of Liverpool players and they
complete the full set in defence. Alisson pipped Ederson as the top points scoring
goalkeeper, keeping 21 clean sheets – 1 more than the Man City stopper. Along with the top
clean sheets, Alisson also conceded the least goals (22), Ederson following on 23 goals. The
Liverpool man started the season priced at £5.5m and reached £6.0m between GW23-31.
He finished the season priced at £5.9m and owned by 23.4% of managers, the highest of any
goalkeeper.

Alisson played every minute of every game last season, facing no competition from reserve
keeper Mignolet. The security of Alisson next season is guaranteed and will be another key
player in their defence for the 2019/20 season.

Defenders

The 2018/19 season will be largely known as the emergence of the full backs. During the
2017/18 season, the Chelsea duo Alonso and Azpilicueta set the bar for FPL fullbacks
scoring 175 and 165 points. This season saw all FPL defensive records smashed, with
Robertson scoring an amazing 213 points – which topped the score of the leading striker
(205).

Robertson created 12 assists this season along with the 21 clean sheets. He only missed two
league matches and amassed 5 double digit FPL returns throughout the campaign.
Robertson started the season at £6.0m and finished the season at £6.7m, reaching a high of
£6.9m between GW30-32. He also finished the season as the highest owned defender on
the game (33%).

The only defender to beat Robertson’s assist tally was his fellow teammate Alexander-
Arnold. He managed 13 assists throughout the season including 1 goal in GW13 against
Watford. He also finished top for the best points per match (PPM) averaging 6.4, whereas
Robertson averaged 5.9 and Van Dijk on 5.5.

Alexander-Arnold missed significantly more matches than Robertson, not featuring at all in
9 league matches. This was due to a combination of injury and rotation with fellow
Englishman Joe Gomez. The injury to Gomez cemented Alexander-Arnolds position in the
team and finished the season in unbelievable form, creating 7 assists in his last 6 games.

Trent was a budget alternative to Robertson at the start of the season, priced £1.0m less at
£5.0m. However, due to his impressive form in the back end of the season, he finished
priced at £5.8m highlighting how under-priced he was in GW1.

Van Dijk completes the dream team back three, finishing sandwiched between his full backs
on 208 points. The Dutchman was ever present in the back line, starting every league
match. While he didn’t offer the assist potential like the other two, he was involved in the
goals, scoring 4 and assisting 4 goals.

Similar to Robertson, Van Dijk started the season at £6.0m and saw his price rocket to finish
priced at £6.8m. Along with being the highest scoring defenders, they all finished as the top
3 owned defenders epitomising their form throughout.
Laporte joined Ederson as Man City’s representatives for the FPL dream team defence. The
Frenchman caught the headlines in the FPL community for being a consistent scorer during
the double gameweeks. He became a popular player after his double gameweek hauls:

• GW25 - 20 points
• GW32 - 19 points
• GW35 - 15 points.

Laporte proved to be an attacking threat for City, scoring 3 goals and assisting 3. He also
notably managed to accumulate 16 bonus points, 9 of which came between GW35-37.
Laporte seemed to be void from the Pep rotation, playing the most minutes of any
defender. While the full backs dominate the points scoring, variables such as rotation risk
justify the occasional decision to select minute guaranteed centre backs.

Luiz completed the dream team defence scoring a personal best score of 164 points.
Chelsea were an inconsistent side under Sarri, but they were still able to keep 16 clean
sheets which Luiz featured in all.

Luiz scored 3 goals and assisted 2, living up to his reputation of an attacking central
defender. He played the second most minutes of any Chelsea defender (3238), behind
captain Azpilicueta (3402). The Brazilian was a regular in the backline, however with the
introduction of Lampard as manager, preseason will be important to monitor whether he is
still first choice. With the injury to Toni Rudiger – who will miss the start of the season – it
seems likely that Luiz will retain his place.

Midfielders

Salah started the season at an eye-watering £13.0m, the most expensive FPL player ever.
Although he wasn’t able to match last season’s heroics, he still finished the season as the
top points scorer.

The Egyptian was joint top goal scorer along with fellow teammate Sadio Mane and
Arsenal’s Aubameyang on 22 goals. While he scored this amount of goals, his FPL value had
been questioned after only scoring 1 goal in 9 league matches between GW24-32.

This run of form is a perfect example of the argument of holding a premium player
throughout the season, and ignoring these spells. We will go into more detail later on about
this topic, but a number of these premium players went through similar periods, only to
come out as some of the highest scoring players.

After 2 campaigns at Liverpool, Salah has averaged 281 FPL points, 27 goals and 12 assists.
He has contributed to more goals than any other midfielder over the past 2 seasons,
justifying his FPL price.

An “FPL troll” is a slang term defined as a player that produces FPL points of extremes,
burning managers over their ownership. One of those players is the FPL community’s ‘troll’
Eden Hazard. The Belgian scored a personal best FPL points tally, including 16 goals and 15
assists throughout the season. Unfortunately for both Chelsea fans and those that
appreciate great footballers, Hazard’s move to Real Madrid will leave a big hole in the
Premier League and importantly at Chelsea.

Raheem Sterling ran out as Man City’s leading points scorer, beating his previous 2017/18
points total by 5 points. Similar to Hazard, Sterling contributed both aspects to his game,
managing 17 goals and 15 assists. He also saw a big price rise throughout the season,
starting at £11.0m and finishing the season at £11.7m. The Pep rotation affected a majority
of the attacking players in the City team. Sterling however played the second most minutes
(2770), only behind Bernardo Silva (2849).

In preparation for next season, it is clear that no player in the side will be exempt from the
rotation. But Sterling has proved over the past two seasons that he is one of Pep’s favourite
attacking players and can justify the additional cost.

Mane proved to be the FPL value midfielder of the premium options. Starting the season at
£9.5m, he had another big price rise finishing the season at £10.3m. He matched Salah’s
goal scoring while being over £3.0m cheaper than his teammate. Ahead of next season, it is
worth acknowledging that Mane arguably over-performed throughout the campaign.

Scoring 22 goals, his expected goals was only 16.76 suggesting he might struggle to replicate
this form this season. In comparison, Salah scored the same amount of goals but managed
an expected goal of 21.79. For those that make decisions based upon stats, it would suggest
that Salah is more likely to replicate his points scoring than Mane.

Sigurdsson was arguably the under-the-radar player of the season for many managers. After
a disappointing 2017/18 season only scoring 96 points, he almost doubled that tally this
season (182).

Over the years, Sigurdsson has been a consistent FPL performer scoring over 150 points 4
times in his last 5 seasons. While he has the track record, he remained a lowly owned asset
this season. His highest ownership came during the double gameweek 25, being owned by
550,000 managers and he finished the season owned by only 8.3%.

Scoring 13 goals and managing 6 assists while having the duty of set piece taker, it is a
surprise that he remained under the radar throughout the season. He is an example of
managers keeping faith in the ‘tried and tested’ assets, with track records such as his.

Forwards

It felt like for a large part of the season, investment in the premium strikers wasn’t an
attractive FPL option. Chelsea had their struggles and couldn’t get Morata or Giroud to
score goals in the first half of the season, resulting in Morata leaving for Atletico Madrid on
loan. Unfortunately for Chelsea his replacement, Higuain, failed to impress only scoring 5
goals in his 14 league matches. All his goals came against bottom half sides indicating that
he could be a flat track bully rather than a big game player.
Man United also had their fair share of problems in the striker department. Their FPL
premium, Lukaku (£11.0m), had a season to forget managing only 115 points, his lowest
since his debut season for Chelsea.

Rashford (£7.0m) was the mid-priced striker to emerge under the appointment of Solskjear,
scoring 6 of his 10 league goals under OGS’ reign. Now the main striker at Man United, the
premium value of Lukaku was ignored with Rashford offering better FPL value at £4.0m
cheaper.

Harry Kane (£12.5m) has been the definition of ‘Mr Reliable’ over the past few seasons in
FPL. In fact, the Spurs forward has averaged an incredible 211 points over his previous 4
seasons. This past season didn’t bring the same form mainly due to his campaign being
affected by 2 significant injuries. Kane missed 10 league matches due to these injuries, but
still managed to score 17 and assist 6 goals. Due to their lack of striker alternatives, the likes
of Moura and Son were the ones to benefit from his absence.

Liverpool’s front three produced another season of great FPL returns, with Mane and Salah
grabbing the headlines once again. While both play like strikers, Firmino is the only FPL
striker of note in the squad. Firmino managed 160 points this season having averaged 172
points over his previous 3 seasons. Scoring 12 goals and assisting 8, he still has yet to
surpass 15 league goals in a season, but continues to offer value with his additional assist
count and £9.5m price tag.

His price this season fell in the awkward bracket of not being a budget pick, but cheaper
than the ‘premium’ choice. With the appeal of these price brackets, it puts an additional
emphasis on the FPL value of players like Firmino and Vardy at these prices.

Arsenal proved to be a frustrating team for managers to invest into their attacking assets
throughout the season. Emery gained a reputation for changing his side and rotating their
top goal scorers - Lacazette and Aubameyang.

Aubameyang (£11.0m) finished the season as the top forward points scorer (205), however
his ownership wasn’t as high as first thought. He started 16 games between gameweek 10 –
25, playing 90 minutes in 13 of these matches. However, the Europa league commitment
meant that his minutes were managed, only starting 7 of the last 13 league games.
22 goals are a decent return, but Aubameyang managed an expected goal of 23.55
suggesting he missed big chances. In fact, he missed the most ‘big chances’ of any player
(23), with Wilson coming second missing 21. As an indication for next season, Aubameyang
could be a key player to watch.

The problem owners had, and what might continue, is his strike partner Lacazette (£9.5m).
The Frenchman was priced £1.5m cheaper than Aubameyang, scoring 13 goals and assisting
12. However as mentioned, Emery regularly rotated the two players last season, starting
only 19 league games together.

To win a Premier League title, you usually need a top striker and this wasn’t any different for
Man City. Aguero finished second highest forward points scorer, 4 behind Aubameyang.
Starting the season priced at £11.0m, he saw a big price rise throughout the season,
eventually finishing the campaign at £12.0m. 21 goals and 11 assists contributed to his 3rd
highest FPL points total, and his joint 2nd most goals contributed.

His goal tally did also include an impressive 3 hat tricks, highlighting his explosive attributes.
Along with being explosive, he’s also consistently managing attacking returns in 21 league
matches. Consistency has been a big part of Aguero’s game. His average points total over
the last 8 campaigns is 179 points.

Many questions were asked at the start of the season about his game time and whether this
would be shared with Jesus. Aguero started 32 of the 38 games, in which he was injured for
4 matches between GW14 – 17. While his starts weren’t an issue, he only managed to play
90 minutes 7 times with Jesus replacing him on a majority of these occasions.

Notable players outside of the Dream Team

Outside of the 2018/19 Dream Team, there are a number of notable mentions and
observations that need to be acknowledged. Firstly, we will look at the budget players that
shot to FPL fame throughout the season. This season was full of these players, with many
managers finding much better FPL value than the premium assets.

One of the best examples of this is Wolves New Number 9, Raul Jimenez. The Mexican
started the season priced at £5.5m, an expected value for a new striker in a newly-
promoted side. He went on to score 13 goals and 10 assists, spearheading Wolves to an
incredible 7th place debut season. Unusual for promoted sides, both Jimenez and Wolves
enjoyed success against the top 6 sides and became an essential budget striker for many
managers.

The inclusion of Jimenez in FPL squads provided the funds to invest in the performing areas
such as full backs and premium midfielders. He ended up finishing as the 3rd highest scoring
forward (181), beating the likes of Vardy, Kane and Firmino.

Jimenez was arguably the FPL value pick of the season, and highlighted the budget potential
for those managers that can identify them. Although they aren’t a common occurrence to
the level of Jimenez, last season proved that there is plenty of value to be found.

Another striker that supported this was Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson. Starting the season
at £6.0m, he scored 14 goals and 12 assists capping off a personal best of 168 points.
Finishing 5th in points scored for forwards and 3rd in FPL value throughout the season,
Wilson was rewarded with a price rise to £6.9m.

The increase for both Jimenez and Wilson highlights the benefits of identifying these value
players early on to get the price rises. For example, Bournemouth had a terrible run of
fixtures between GW19 – 29, where over 1 million managers sold the Englishman. Priced at
£6.9m at the time, these managers would have made a £0.4m profit to invest back into their
squads.
The top 4 highest scoring midfielders were all premium FPL assets, but this doesn’t mean
there wasn’t value picks throughout the season. Wilson’s fellow teammate Ryan Fraser also
enjoyed a fruitful campaign for attacking returns (181 points). He finished the season with 7
goals and 14 assists, which was the second highest assists in the league behind Hazard (15).
According to his underlying stats, he under-performed regarding assists with an expected
assist (xA) of 16.18.

Fraser enjoyed a similar price rise to Wilson, rising from £5.5m to £6.4m by the end of the
campaign. He also remained a popular pick by managers, being consistently in over 1.2
million teams from GW8 onwards. Wilson and Fraser proved to be a popular and successful
duo, with many managers owning both in parts throughout the season.

The other notable budget midfielder that had a good campaign was Crystal Palace’s
Milivojevic. The Palace man also scored a personal best of 166 points, consisting of 12 goals
and 2 assists. While playing every minute of the campaign, Milivojevic had another
impressive record of scoring the most penalties this season.

He scored 10 of his 12 goals from the penalty spot, beating last season’s total of 7 penalties.
He also scored a free kick and one goal from open play, highlighting the value in owning
players that have set piece responsibilities. With the introduction of VAR next season,
players like Milivojevic are ones to watch, especially those that take penalties.

Last season, the defenders took the plaudits when the premium assets came into their
element, with Liverpool and Man City running away with the clean sheets. The budget to
mid-range defenders that really excelled were the full backs, offering attacking returns
when clean sheets were limited.

At £5.0m, Digne fell just above the budget options but was still a fair price with a reputation
for attacking. He didn’t disappoint, scoring 4 goals and creating 5 assists, but was an
inconsistent performer at some points. The Everton full back managed to score 5 double
digit returns, however also managed 3 negative points scores thanks to a red card and one
own goal.

Sharing set piece duties with Sigurdsson, Digne scored 2 free kicks – the most of any
defender – took 89 corners and also produced the most crosses of any player. Everton
managed 13 clean sheets throughout the season, however 8 of these came in their last 13
gameweeks. If Marco Silva can replicate this late season form into the upcoming campaign,
then Digne could be one of the defenders to watch.

On the topic of attacking full backs, we have to talk about Wolves’ Matt Doherty. Priced at
£4.5m at the start of the season, Doherty enjoyed a similarly successful season to Jimenez.
Doherty flew under the radar in the opening 5 gameweeks, being owned by around 50,000
managers. However, a 12-point haul in gameweek 5 including an assist and clean sheet put
Doherty in the headlines as a potential budget defender. He went on to score 4 goals and
register 7 assists, seeing his price rise to £5.3m.
 Wolves played a 3-5-2 formation last season that really benefitted the wing backs like
Doherty, providing the license to roam forward. Like Wolves, it’s key for managers to
monitor teams and their formations throughout the season. Formations such as Wolves’ can
help increase the attacking potential of certain defenders, turning them into midfielders.

Season-by-season analysis

Reviewing the past is an important indicator into predicting the future in upcoming FPL
campaigns. While reviewing the previous season provides the up-to-date, relevant
information for managers to base decisions upon, we think looking further back has its
benefits.

Below we have highlighted the FPL Dream Teams from the 2017/18, 2016/17, 2015/16 and
2014/15 seasons, to provide some further data.

2017/2018 2016/17
Player FPL Points Starting Price Player FPL Points Starting Price
De Gea 172 £5.5m Heaton 149 £4.5m
Azpilicueta 175 £6.5m Cahill 178 £6.0m
Alonso 165 £7.0m Alonso 177 £6.0m
Otamendi 156 £5.5m Azpilicueta 170 £6.0m
Salah 303 £9.0m Sanchez 264 £11.0m
Sterling 229 £8.0m Alli 225 £8.5m
De Bruyne 209 £10.0m Hazard 224 £10.0m
Eriksen 199 £9.5m Eriksen 218 £8.5m
Mahrez 195 £8.5m De Bruyne 199 £10.5m
Kane 217 £12.5m Kane 224 £11.0m
Vardy 183 £8.5m Lukaku 221 £9.0m
Bench Bench
Ederson 158 £5.5m Lloris 143 £5.5m
Valencia 146 £6.5m Walker 142 £5.5m
Davies 143 £5.5m Baines 135 £5.5m
Firmino 181 £8.5m Costa 196 £9.5m
2015/16 2014/15
Player FPL Points Starting Price Player FPL Points Starting Price
Cech 159 £5.5m Fabianski 151 £5.0m
Bellerin 172 £5.5m Ivanovic 179 £7.0m
Alderwerield 166 £5.0m Terry 177 £6.5m
Koscielny 153 £6.0m Clyne 142 £5.0m
Mahrez 240 £5.5m Hazard 233 £10.0m
Ozil 200 £8.5m Sanchez 207 £10.5m
Eriksen 178 £8.5m Silva 191 £9.0m
Ayew 171 £7.0m Cazorla 168 £8.5m
Kane 211 £9.5m Aguero 216 £12.0m
Vardy 211 £6.0m Kane 191 £5.0m
Lukaku 185 £8.0m Austin 176 £6.0m
Bench Bench
Gomes 157 £4.5m Heaton 150 £4.5m
Monreal 152 £5.5m Jagielka 142 £5.5m
Fuchs 150 £5.0m Bertrand 140 £5.0m
Payet 171 £7.5m Fabregas 165 £9.0m

At first glance, it is clear that the Dream Teams are naturally made up of Top 6 sides from
that campaign. In fact, the following stats suggest this:

18/19 – 13 players from Top 6

17/18 – 13
16/17 – 13
15/16 – 12
14/15 – 9

It isn’t a surprise that these players feature in the Dream Team, top performing players play
for the top teams. And while it would be great to own a majority of these players, the FPL
budget doesn’t let managers have this luxury.

What does this historical data tell us? Below we have highlighted some of the key
observations from the data over the past 5 Premier League seasons:

Defenders are scoring more points

After looking at the previous seasons, it is clear that the 2018/19 season was a standout
campaign for defenders. All 3 of the highest scoring defenders outscored every defender
over the previous 4 seasons.

We have touched on this previously, but the evolution of full backs has contributed to these
increasing points scores. Liverpool operate their full backs as additional wingers along with
the responsibility of set pieces throughout the season.
2015/16 was an anomaly

The 2015/16 season will remain one of the most memorable title wins, with the underdog
Leicester City lifting the trophy. The side produced a number of FPL bargains, most notably
Mahrez (£5.5m) and Jamie Vardy (£6.0m).

It also was the only year where the final Dream Team consisted of 15 players whose original
starting price totalled under £100m (£97.5m). The data shows that usually Dream Team
starting value are significantly over the £100m budget, highlighting the difficulty in
balancing squads. This Dream Team value shows the anomaly that was the 2015/16 season,
but also showed the potential FPL value players that can emerge each season.

Value in the strikers

The 2016/17 was the only season that arguably 3 premium strikers finished in the final
season Dream Team. This consisted of Kane, Lukaku and Costa, all priced above £9.0m.
However, over many of the other seasons, the striker area consistently highlights the FPL
value in players. For example, 2014/15 had both Harry Kane priced at £5.0m and Charlie
Austin at £6.0m. 2015/16 was the year of Jamie Vardy, along with Firmino and again Vardy
occupying the lower premium price bracket in 2017/18.

Last season we know that Jimenez was the most recent example of this and we think that
the striker department provides plenty of options when looking to save money. The
challenge this season, like seasons past, is to try to predict which striker(s) will be the
equivalent to Jimenez this year.

Expensive midfielders justify their cost

Midfielders have consistently been the highest scoring players in FPL, especially last season
where 4 players scored more than the highest scoring forward. It shouldn’t be a surprise to
managers that this is the case. Midfielders get 5 points for a goal – 1 more than a forward –
and also receive an additional point for a clean sheet, which forwards aren’t rewarded.

These points add up over the course of a season, especially for those midfielders like Salah
that keep plenty of clean sheets. These expensive midfielders have historically supported
the theory of investing a large amount of your budget in this position. While the emergence
of defenders has grabbed headlines, we think the main priority should be focussing on
owning these premium midfielders.

What is noticeable, is that while familiar names appear regularly in the attacking positions,
the defence isn’t as common. Chelsea defensive players have been a household name in the
FPL world over the years, with the full backs Alonso and Azpilicueta having consistent
returns. However, it seems that the defence is harder to predict than the attacking assets.

When a team struggles such as Man Utd last season, a goal conceded has a big impact on
the FPL potential of both goalkeepers and defenders. These assets are reliant on one
another to ensure that they keep a clean sheet, therefore factors can happen that influence
your player even when you don’t own them.

Attacking assets, however, have a much higher FPL ceiling and score many more points as
the data shows. Of course, an attacking player you own might not get an assist because of a
non-owned player missing a big chance. But these assets don’t have the baggage of relying
on the rest of their team to score the majority of their points. And this is why the same
attacking names appear regularly throughout the years, because while the team might
struggle the attacking players still have the potential for decent scores.

Take this season as an example. None of the Arsenal defensive assets appear in either of the
top 10 points scoring, however Aubameyang finished as the leading scoring forward. In
GW8 when Arsenal beat Fulham away 5-1, the defenders finished on 2 points (unless they
assisted/scored) due to that single goal conceded. Meanwhile, Aubameyang scored 2 goals
and assisted 1, unaffected by the FPL impact of conceding a goal.

So what does this information mean to managers? Attacking assets are easier to predict
which players are going to top score in comparison to defenders. The evolution of the game
means that full backs are becoming more attacking and have higher FPL potential with the
increasing assist tallies – Robertson and Alexander-Arnold. However, these are still
dependent on clean sheets to score consistent points, which is where the attacking assets
have the advantage.

We think that managers should become patient with the likes of the premium players that
consistently deliver FPL points such as Kane, Sterling and Salah. If their team goes through
tough patches, it is usually the attacking players that can come good rather than the
defenders.

‘Break Out’ Players

While the highest FPL points scorers are usually the same suspects from the top teams,
there are occasions when breakout players emerge. This can come in the form of an already
promising player finally achieving their potential or a new signing hitting the ground
running. Like all FPL transfers, identifying these assets early gives you the advantage over
your other managers.

We have highlighted some of the iconic breakout players and whether there is a pattern to
identify. During the 2014/15 season, Kane grabbed the headlines by becoming Spurs’ main
man up front, scoring 21 goals and 7 assists in his first full debut season. Starting at £5.0m,
he is arguably the best FPL value player in the history of the game.

Sterling is a great example of someone who showed promise but hadn’t previously fulfilled
his potential. During the 2016/17 season, Sterling scored 7 goals and assisted 14 for a
respectable 149 points, finishing the season priced at £7.5m. During City’s title winning
2017/18 campaign, Sterling was priced at £8.0m, a reflection of the previous season’s form.
The City man went on to have his best ever season, scoring 18 and assisting 17 goals.
When comparing these two seasons, it is clear that the way that City played changed the
chances that Sterling was getting. During the 2016/17 campaign, he averaged 2.27 shots per
90 (sh90) and 1.64 key passes per 90 (kp90) and an expected goal per 90 (xG90) of 0.29.

In his 2017/18 season, some of Sterling’s stats didn’t necessarily skyrocket as first imagined.
He averaged 3.02 sh90 and 1.91 kp90, a clear increase in both areas yet nothing to explain
the massive improvement in his goal scoring.

The important stat is Sterling’s xG90, which rose from 0.29 to 0.65 in just one season. The
reason for this is not necessarily the increased volume of attempts, but rather an
improvement in the quality of attempts made.

Of course, we can’t discuss ‘breakout’ players without mentioning the highest scoring FPL
player of all time. That man is Liverpool’s Mo Salah, who scored an incredible 303 points in
his debut season for the Reds.

After a short spell at Chelsea with his minutes limited by a reluctant Jose Mourinho, he
spent half a season at Fiorentina before a 2-year spell at Roma. Scoring 29 Serie A goals over
this period at Roma, Salah didn’t necessarily suggest he would hit the goal scoring heights
that he established at Liverpool.

Predicting which players are going to come onto the scene each season is a very difficult
task. We don’t think it is necessarily possible to predict these circumstances, however with
the help of data it can aid our decision making. For example, in Salah’s last season at Roma
he averaged 2.88 shots per 90 (sh90) and 2.56 key passes per 90 (kp90), while maintaining a
0.48 expected goals per 90 (xG90). These stats are decent for a player priced at £9.0m
initially, however far away from his debut season stats of 4.36 sh90 and 0.77 xG90.

In addition to the data, particularly for players new to the Premier League, the "eye test" is
also important. If you can see the promise and potential in a player that caught your
attention, AND the data tells a good story, he might be a player worth your investment.

So what can we determine from trying to identify players that will have their personal best
campaign? Studying underlying stats can help provide some insight into a promising player
and whether they are under or overachieving from their actual output. However, sometimes
historical data cannot predict significant increases or decreases in a players scoring over
that upcoming season.

Taking Sterling as a previous example, although he underperformed in the previous season,

the stats didn’t suggest he could produce the level that he achieved. Many factors come
into play when these players enjoy ‘break out’ seasons, such as a change in manager or a
change in system that focusses on their strengths. What we do recommend is not taking a
non-calculated risk on a player that you predict could have their best ever season. If this
doesn’t have a significant reasoning, take the opening gameweeks to analyse the player in
question and determine if they are reaching the levels you anticipated.
Chapter 3 - The importance of stats
If you’re aware of our FPL account, then you will know that we value the importance of stats
when making FPL decisions. Underlying stats can be a controversial topic in the FPL
Community, but we think they should be an essential part of any manager’s decision
making.

Stats come in many different forms and while some are argued, what can’t be ignored is the
cold hard facts. These include the likes of goals, assists and clean sheets from previous
seasons.

Common underlying stats

Underlying stats is where it ventures into dangerous territory and this should be fully
understood before making decisions off the back. First, we must distinguish the common
underlying stats and what they measure. You’ve probably seen odd slang terms such as xG
and sh90, so this should clarify the meaning behind them.

Expected goals (xG): measures the quality of a shot based on factors such as shot angle and
distance from goal. This stat can provide an indication of how many goals a player should
have scored on average.

Expected assists (xA): measures the likelihood that a pass will become a goal assist based on
factors such as type of pass and length of pass. This stat can provide an indication of how
many assists a player should have had.

Expected goals per 90 (xG90): takes the player’s xG and averages it over a typical 90-minute
match.

Expected assists per 90 (xA90): takes the player’s xA and averages it over a typical 90-
minute match.

Shots per 90 (sh90): measures the average amount of shots taken by a player over a typical
90-minute match.

Key passes per 90 (kp90): measures the average amount of final passes leading to a shot
from a teammate by a player over a typical 90-minute match.

To view these types of stats, we recommend checking out websites such as

www.understat.com and www.whoscored.com.

Analysing underlying stats for attacking players

While actual stats provide the clearest data as to the performance of a player, the
underlying stats uncover the potential. We have looked at the underlying stats of the top
performing players last season in regards to xG and xA. Naturally this stat type caters
towards the attacking players, therefore midfielders and forwards are the majority in the
charts below.

Player xG Actual goal FPL Points

Aubameyang 23.55 22 205
Salah 21.79 22 259
Aguero 19.95 21 201
Vardy 19.12 18 174
Mane 16.76 22 231
Kane 16.12 17 160
Wilson 16.02 14 168
Sterling 15.91 17 234
Pogba 15.88 13 179
Mitrovic 15.45 11 134

Player xA Actual assists FPL Points

Fraser 16.18 14 181
Hazard 11.57 15 238
Sterling 10.79 15 234
Salah 10.47 12 259
D. Silva 10.11 8 143
B. Silva 8.63 8 154
Sane 8.10 12 156
Robertson 8.06 12 213
Maddison 7.94 7 137
Eriksen 7.88 12 161

The above results highlight the expected - the highest scoring players have some of the best
underlying stats.

Who would have thought?

While it isn’t surprising, it does make for interesting reading. Both Salah and Aubameyang
scored 22 goals and their xG highlights that they performed as expected – Aubameyang
arguably under-performing. The results suggest that Mane over-performed regarding his xG,
scoring +5.24 goals more than expected.

Mitrovic is a great example of a player that significantly under-performed in comparison to

their underlying stats. What these stats can show is the finishing ability of certain players,
whether they are clinical in front of goal consistently.

So how can you use underlying stats to make FPL decisions?

The stats mentioned above are end-of-season results, therefore not relevant when you are
trying to find players during that same season. However, these stats can be useful in the
opening weeks of a season, highlighting early players that are over or under-performing.

We have looked at the opening 5 Gameweeks for the 2018/19 Premier League season, to
see if there are trends with the final highest scoring players.

Player xG xA xG+xA
Salah 3.90 2.03 5.93
Aguero 3.09 1.95 5.04
Wilson 3.11 1.54 4.65
Ings 3.79 0.62 4.41
Jesus 3.07 1.34 4.41
Lukaku 3.69 0.42 4.11
D. Silva 1.57 2.47 4.04
Mane 2.70 1.19 3.89
Firmino 2.75 1.10 3.85
Pogba 3.23 0.47 3.70
Fraser 1.13 2.51 3.64

Of these players, 5 can be found in the top 10 FPL points scoring attackers in the 2018/19
season – Salah, Aguero, Mane, Pogba and Fraser. While only 5 gameweeks is a small data
point, it does highlight how top performing players can stand out. However, it does also
show the risk of taking a decision based solely on these stats.

Jesus for example, started the opening 5 gameweeks with brilliant underlying stats,
however finished the season as the 23rd highest scoring forward. While his stats remained
strong, other considerations such as rotation highlight why just using stats isn’t a rational
move. Managers need to use stats to compliment these other factors when making
decisions regarding players.

When data is small – like over 5 gameweeks – identifying the best FPL options can be
difficult. Giving a bigger set of data naturally makes the process easier, and why the second
half of the season should really consider stats. As players reach the second half of the
season, managers have over 4 months of crucial data to crunch.

At the halfway stage last season, the obvious candidates started to establish themselves as
the higher performing players:

Player xG xA xG+xA
Salah 11.65 6.77 18.42
Kane 11.51 3.19 14.70
Hazard 7.74 6.92 14.66
Aubameyang 11.04 2.74 13.78
Wilson 8.93 3.87 12.80
 Sterling 7.50 5.05 12.55
Aguero 8.87 3.36 12.23
Sigurdsson 7.16 3.56 10.72
Vardy 8.45 1.75 10.20
Fraser 2.09 8.20 10.09

7 of the above players featured are found in the top 10 FPL points scoring attackers, along
with Vardy (11th) and Wilson (12th). We think this larger pool of data provides managers
with the necessary information to make confident FPL decisions. While it doesn’t recognize
every high performing FPL asset, it does historically provide a reliable set of data to make
decisions on.

Analysing underlying stats for attacking players

As mentioned, stats such as expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) are largely
tailored towards attacking FPL players. While defensive players are having more of an
influence in the attacking areas over the years, the ‘bread and butter’ is clean sheets.

Analysing the underlying stats for attacking players simply requires focusing on the
individual player. However, defensive stats need a team overview rather than looking at a
certain player. Aspects of the game like clean sheets is more of a measure of the team than
the individual.

The important stat to consider is the expected goals against (xGA). Last season Man City
conceded 1 more goal than Liverpool, but had the best xGA of 25.73. However, as stated in
our 2018/19 player analysis, Laporte (4th) and Walker (9th) were the only City defenders to
finish in the top 10 defenders. Meanwhile, Liverpool defenders Robertson, Van Dijk and
Alexander-Arnold finished as the three highest scoring defenders.

Similar to using underlying stats for attacking players, they should be used as an extension
to manager’s decision making. xGA is important to consider for defenders, but other factors
such as attacking potential and rotation should come hand-in-hand.

Can underlying stats help FPL decision making?

We think that underlying stats are a great way of understanding which players are likely to
perform based on previous data. Attacking stats such as expected goals (xG) helps highlight
which players are getting in the right areas in front of goal. The ‘eye test’ can work for many
managers in their decision making, however can be a subjective metric. We think that
underlying stats help support the conclusion created from watching a match, while also
highlighting aspects that were originally missed.

As mentioned, less data can naturally bring bigger risks in successfully owning the right FPL
player. We recommend taking the opening few months to analyse the data and see if trends
appear. Patience can be a tricky skill in FPL, but usually rewards those that adopt it,
especially in statistics.
Chapter 4 - FPL account top tips
While our advice has hopefully provided some deeper insight into FPL so far, we thought we
would bring in some guests to help. Over the summer we asked a number of FPL accounts
to provide their ‘top tip for FPL success’ this season including their ‘player to watch’.

Here is what they had to say:

Planet #FPL Podcast

@PlanetFPLPod
planetfpl

Top tip: My top tip is to play the game your way. Whether you base decisions on data, the
eye test or on prediction methods stick to a philosophy in a way a real football manager
would.

That's not to mean turning a blind eye at resources if you are someone who trusts what you
see, but equally trust your instinct if that is how you manage.

Player to watch: Chris Wood (Burnley) His 99 FPL points in the second half of 18/19 went
largely unnoticed.

The Fantasy Plonker Podcast

@Fantasy_Plonker

Top tip: My top tip for this upcoming season would be try to only take hits on long term
transfers. If it’s short term, try to avoid it. Another tip would be gather information and
opinions from social media but don’t let it take over always make your own decision.

Player to watch: My player to watch for this season would be Enda Stevens for Sheffield
United. Left wing back with serious attacking threat. Sheffield United should hopefully try to
stay solid at the back and with 4 goals 6 assists in the championship last season he’s my one
to watch.
 Andy Martin

@fpl_tactician
fpl_tactician

Top tip: My Top Tip for the 2019/20 season is to start the season with the most expensive
defender, midfielder and forward in your squad. (Unless Injured) It takes time for a template
team to emerge but if you start with the most expensive players in each position, it’s easier
to downgrade than upgrade. Team structure is important and so are price points.

If you choose not to start with a Premium Striker for example, then have money in the bank
to do so. Otherwise you’ll find yourself taking more hits.

Player to watch: The player to watch out for is Max Aarons. Quick, Likes to get forward and
can cross well from deep. My prediction is that he will be £4.5m but at the time of writing
there are rumours that United and Arsenal are circulating.

Let’s Talk Soccer

@LetsTalkSoccer2
letstalksoccer

Top tip: Patience is critical and impulsivity can do you in: Nothing can bring your weekly -
and overall - score down like making unnecessary transfers. You only get one free Transfer
each week, so anything beyond that is negative four points per transfer. If you’ve done your
homework and chosen a player that you believe will improve your squad, don’t get
skittish if he has a poor game or two. Hang onto him until you can see a trend.

We suggest giving players 4-5 games before passing judgement. Sometimes, a bad
gameweek or two can be nothing more just that - a bad game. By saying patient, you’ll allow
that player to break out of any poor form so that you can see what that player can actually
do (or not do) for you. Similarly, try to avoid being impulsive. We’ve all heard of “rage
transfers” (transferring out a player immediately after he just had a poor performance).
You’re angry and want revenge, so you “show him” by kicking him out of your team, when,
in fact, you probably just wasted your FT for the upcoming gameweek. And related to that,
try to avoid bringing in a player because he just had one very strong performance - a
common FPL practice called “chasing points” (tip: it rarely works out).

It’s all about making calm, informed, rational decisions for your team.

Player to watch: As Americans, we'll put our support behind one of our own. We suggest
keeping an eye on Christian Pulisic. For the U.S. National Team this summer, and despite
limited time at Dortmund, he demonstrated that he's a playmaker and goal scorer.
We think he'll do the same in a Chelsea side that, under Frank Lampard, will be an exciting
team this season. There's a lot of young, emerging talent for the Blues, especially on the
attacking end of the pitch. And, Pulisic will help lead the charge as Chelsea look to get back
into the Top 4.

Take The Hit #FPL Podcast

@Fpl_takethehit
fpl_takethehit

Top tip: Our top tips for success next season are:

1.Patience: trust that the players you choose will do well for you & give them the time to
produce.

2.VAR awareness: when choosing your first squad, make sure you have some penalty takers
as the VAR could spark an epidemic of penalty’s

Player to watch:
1.Tammy Abraham: The second highest scorer in the championship last season, with EPL
experience at Swansea a few seasons ago, whether he plays for Aston Villa or Chelsea come
the start of the season is irrelevant. A must-buy.

2.Teema Pukki: The top scorer in the Championship last season could go big this season
despite a tough fixture run early in the season

FPL Cougars

@FPLCougars

Top tip: Play your own game. Research stats, watch games. Play template with one or two
punts to make the difference. They key to FPL is consistency all year round 💪

Player to watch: Almiron. More an all season one to watch not so much first few fixtures
considering their tough opponents.
 FPL Prince

@TheFPLPrince

Top tip: Start your team with some reliable picks from last season. It may sound simple but I
often find you can make a good start in FPL by picking players who have a history of being
reliable with points. People often get tempted by newly transferred players and players
from the promoted teams and whilst that’s not wrong, it’s more of a risk. Pick 5/6 core
players who you know are reliable and will start. Mine are Mane, Sterling, Digne, Robertson
and Laporte.

Player to watch: This may sound obvious but I think Trent Alexander-Arnold could be one
of the very highest scorers in the game this year. He had a breakout season last year and at
the latter end of the season was scoring some real big points with his crossing ability. At 7.0
million he's not cheap but if he manages to keep that right back spot his own I can see him
being the most wanted player in the game!

FPL General

@FPLGeneral
fplgeneral

Top tip: Play your own game. With so much information readily available to us Fantasy
managers nowadays, managing yourself is as important as managing your team. If you don't
manage yourself well, you won't manage your team well. Don't spend too much time
consuming FPL content. Try not to overthink it. Don't let others influence your decision-
making, it's your team. Most important of all, enjoy the game. Take the bad Gameweeks on
the chin and bounce back the following week.

Player to watch: David Brooks. He burst on to the FPL scene last year and was very
productive before injury interrupted his season. At £6.5m I can see him offering great value
in 2019/20.

Arrow FPL
@ArrowFPL
arrowfpl

Top tip: Our top tip for this season relates to captain picks, and how to set your team up to
give you one less headache during the season.
We suggest owning TWO of Salah, Sterling, Kane, Aguero or Aubameyang. Despite the
large outlay, the advantage this gives, isn’t just two potential golden boot winners, but the
likelihood that one will almost always be looking at an easy fixture — giving you your clear
captain pick.

Example

GW2:
Salah vs SOU
Kane vs MCI

GW12:
Salah vs MCI
Kane vs SHU

With this binary selection to make, it increases your chances of selecting a successful
captain each week, compared weighing up less fixture proof options as a compromise.

Player to watch: The one guy we are keeping the closest eye on this preseason and beyond
is Brighton’s Pascal Groß. With Hughton gone and the arrival of attack-minded Potter, we’re
expecting more magic from Groß this season. Managing 164pts and an incredible 24BP in
17/18 — thanks largely to 8 assists, 7 goals and 82 chances created — we can see him
bouncing back to this kind of form after his injury-plagued last season. On Corners, Free-
kicks and possibly even penalties, we expect Groß to return to being Brighton’s creative
dynamo.

The Art of the Dive FPL Podcast

@DiveFPL
theartofthedive

Top tip: Hold that free transfer (FT). Most managers feel the need to utilize their FT week to
week. It’s challenging. We all want to tinker with our teams. The problem is, your moves
become only that, tinkering. Rather than making meaningful changes, many managers
continue to make small, meaningless changes or take hits to make big changes.

Saving your FT and then making two transfers at a time allows for more significant changes
to the team without hits. I made two changes in a GW 17 times last season. I took only one
hit. I attribute much of my OR finish of 1169 to this approach. This strategy helped me
remain flexible and kept me from making quick rash transfers following a gameweek. If you
have the willpower (you probably don’t) consider trying it.

While you’re at it, check out our podcast, The Art of the Dive, for far more, always correct,
never wrong, green arrows only advice. (Marko)
Player to watch: Gylfi Sigurdsson is my player to watch for the 2019/2020 season. His total
points scored last season (182) was fourth among midfielders, a considerable amount
behind the big three of Salah, Sterling, and Mane and slightly in front of the likes of Fraser,
Pogba, and Milivojevic.

One of the toughest things to find in FPL is consistent output game to game and even harder
from season to season. Gylfi provides both and last year surprisingly was never owned by
more than 10% of the FPL community. With a reasonable price of £8.0m, Marco Silva at the
helm for the second year, and a great run of fixtures to start the season, I’m all in the
Icelandic attacking midfielder from Everton. (Jake)

Heskibo

@FPLHeskibo

Top tip: Remember that it’s just a game and don’t take it too seriously. Sure, it is frustrating
when a clean sheet gets wiped out in the last minute or your captain blanks, but don’t let it
affect your mood, your relationships or your mental health. If it starts becoming too much
take a break, come off twitter, delete your team, whatever it takes. Winning your mini-
league isn’t worth taking a loss in the things that really matter.

Player to watch: An obvious pick, but Alexander-Arnold. Last season he got returns in 64%
of his appearances and got 9 double digit hauls (for context, Sterling and Mane also got 9,
Salah got 8, Aubameyang got 6 and Aguero and Kane got 5 each). If he had started every
game and scored at the same rate he would have ended last season on 242 points, which
would have made him the second highest scorer in the game.

At £7m he is a bargain, and if you want an outstanding Liverpool captaincy option without
splashing out £11.5m+ for Mane or Salah, then Trent may well be your man.

Adam Hopcroft

@ahopcroft13

Top tip: My top tip is to have a strategy and stick to it. It is fine to play aggressive and take
lots of hits, like FPL great Mark Sutherns or to be cautious and considered with your
approach. However, keep changing strategies often means you can be "unlucky" more
frequently. If you are consistent with your decision making, then your luck should even out.
Last season I was fairly cautious taking only 4 hits all season. However, one of those hits
meant I contradicted my strategy. I took Anderson out in a week where he scored 15 points,
then immediately reversed the decision for a hit. It then meant I had 8 good attacking
players to choose from giving me a benching headache. This was something I had planned
to avoid and ultimately backfired when I benched a Rashford 12 pointer!

Player to watch: Rashford. If he is given a sustained run as Utd's number 9 I think this will
be the season he stakes his claim for the England number 9 role.

Team to watch for bargains – Chelsea

FPL Reuser

@Reuser5

Top tip: It may seem counter-intuitive, but the key to success in FPL is not entirely governed
by picking the players who will score the most points.

Rather, due to the constraints of our 100m budget, successful FPL managers will be looking
to maximise the number of points obtained across their teams by identifying value across
each price point. Often it is not the number of points that a player scores that is important –
rather than the points scored relative to their cost.

If we look at the number of points scored per 90 minutes per £1 million spent (essentially a
measure of how much “bang-for-your-buck” each player delivers when on the field), general
trends become evident*:
• Premium midfielders and forwards are relatively low value – when not captained.
• Goalkeepers and defenders tend to be highest value
• Forwards tend to show least value
However, it is worth noting that a squad of the highest value players would come in
significantly under-budget and would be in no danger of threatening the top world rankings.
When filtered by a minimum of 2000 minutes played, the “highest value” squad in 18/19
comprised of players who are likely to play in the game in 19/20 (relative to final price)
would be:

GK: Pickford, Lloris

DF: TAA, Schar, Robertson, Digne, Alonso
MD: Deulofeu, Brooks, Gundogan, Pedro, Jota
FW: Wilson, Rondon, Barnes
All of the above players demonstrated the highest levels of value for their playing position in
the 18/19 season. However, many of these players received price rises and/or positional
reclassification in the 19/20 season. Consequentially, the potential value they offer over the
coming season needs to be carefully re-considered in light of the recently announced prices.

If searching for next season’s FPL bargains, we can filter below 2000 minutes to indicate a
number of other players who also demonstrate potentially high value, should they have the
opportunity to play more regularly in 19/20. These include Guaita, Gunn, Schlupp, Matip,
Gomez, Barkley, McNeil, Martial, JWP, Tielemans, Ings and Calvert-Lewin – although
recently announced price rises for some of these options does need to be noted.

Successful FPL managers will (consciously or unconsciously) attempt to identify value across
their squads – in a way that maximizes the number of points scored across their team. In
other words, finding the winning combination of high-scoring explosive (captaincy) options
and cheaper, higher-value players are fundamental to a successful FPL season.

*It is worth noting that there is an alternative measure of “value” called VORP (value-over-
replacement-player) that is also worth considering.

Player to watch: As we scour the player lists for cheap hidden gems and enablers, few
players have disappointed FPL managers over recent years as much as Nathan Redmond. A
pacey attacking winger who blurs the line between midfielder and forward, he is a perennial
focus of debate in July, when this kindly-priced, arguably Out of Position (OOP) option often
seems to excel in pre-season friendlies. Inevitably to ultimately disappoint us once the
season starts.

Until now. Perhaps.

Last season started no differently to others for him. This exciting 5.5 midfielder option who
“had the same possibilities as Thierry Henry” (accordingly to Claude Puel, at least) amassed
exactly 0 goals and 0 assists over the first 15 matches of the season during Mark Hughes’
tenure – averaging 2.26 points per match. So far, so Dale Stephens.

We have Ralph Hasenhüttl to thank for the fact that Nathan Redmond may now become a
genuine, high-value option at 6.5m. Under the Austrian’s stewardship, Redmond moved
more centrally and became key to the Southampton attack. He registered 6 goals and 5
assists in 23 matches – 103 points in total, averaging 4.48 points per match (including 3
double-digit hauls). All whilst priced 5.5m or below.

Over this period, Redmond’s expected goal involvement (xGI) every 181 minutes over this
period was higher than Eriksen, Bernardo Silva, Fraser and Son. Indeed, his expected goals
(xG) of 10.68 in 23 games was only bettered by Salah, Mane, Sterling, Pogba and Eden
Hazard.

There are caveats of course. Whilst his underlying stats were strong, Redmond does have a
reputation for poor finishing. This is somewhat – but not entirely - borne out by his 14
career goals with Southampton from an xG of approximately 15, suggesting concerns may
be somewhat overplayed. Nonetheless, his career xA (expected assists) of 15.41 with
Southampton is more of a cause for concern when we consider he has achieved just 8
assists. However, this may be more due to the finishing prowess of his Southampton team-
mates rather than his own shortcomings.

In the search for explosive, high-value options for our teams, Nathan Redmond as mid-
priced option is certainly worthy of our consideration if he can maintain the form of his last
23 games. We may have been here before – but possibly, just maybe, this time is
different…….

Foomni analytics

@foomnianalytics
foomni

Top tip: Don’t be a fan! Number one rule is, don’t let your feelings for players or teams
influence your FPL decisions. Try to be neutral, and follow as much news and reports as
possible to constantly be in the loop. Also, no matter how tempting it is to use them early,
save your chips. You’ll need some flexibility later on. Finally, perhaps give a chance to some
of the many FPL tools out there. Never trust them completely, but let algorithms analyse
ocean of data for you, and help you with decisions!

Player to watch: Aside from usual suspects, if they complete their transfers, look out for
Leicester. Brendan Rodgers likes to outscore his opponents, and Tielemans was our
algorithm’s darling in the second part of last season. Also interesting might be Ayoze Perez,
now a cheap midfielder, whom Rodgers may very well play up front!

FPL Fairy

@FPLFairy
fplfairy

Top Tip: Hit the Ground Running - One of the flaws to my own game has been starting the
season poorly and over the summer I’ve consumed a lot of content to see what I’ve been
doing differently to other successful FPL managers. - Over the last 11 years, I tend to really
push on and finish the season strongly, but the slow start stops me from getting inside the
illusive 1k club. You could say I my slow start is similar to Everton under David Moyes back in
the day.

This season I will be applying the below principles to hopefully hit the ground running: -
Stick to reliable, guaranteed starters from established sides. Somehow I started last season
with Alexis bloody Sanchez in my squad! - Don’t be afraid to wildcard early if things start to
go pear shaped. In the past I’ve held out for international gameweeks and fallen behind. - If
a budget player is performing well and signs are good, don’t be afraid to jump on-board the
bandwagon. I missed the Jimenez points train early last season (sorry Jota owner). - Always
be looking 4-8 weeks ahead for your squad. Fixtures and form are important. - Don’t take
FPL too serious. It’s not life and death, it’s much more important.

Player to watch: The whole Chelsea squad. While FPL managers will be focused on getting
Man City, Liverpool, Everton and Bournemouth players early on, Chelsea could offer us
some great value to consider on our initial wildcard. At the time of writing Christian Pulisic is
the most expensive Chelsea asset at a mere £7.5m.

El Statto

@FPL_ElStatto

Top tip: My advice in short is just to play your own game. There is a ton of information now
available for people who want to use it, whether that’s podcasts, YouTube accounts,
websites, blogs etc. But at the end of the day you need to decide for yourself what advice
and opinion you wish to take (and apply) and which you respectfully ignore. You need to
play your own game and not be swayed, if you think a player is a good pick then pick him,
just because someone else who produces content doesn't agree doesn't mean you are
wrong. Back yourself and if the move comes off then great, if it doesn't then at least you
know you felt it was a good move to play.

Thanks again to all those accounts that helped contribute their thoughts to the guide. There
are many different approaches to the game and finding your own style is important to
enjoying the game. Hopefully with these tips from some of the best accounts, it will help
towards understanding the game better.

If managers aren’t already, be sure to follow each account on their respective channels.
There is plenty of FPL advice within the FPL community and these are some of the best ones
out there. Twitter especially is a hub of FPL content and advice, a great place for any
beginner manager to learn more about the game. Simply search the hashtag
#FPLCommunity, we won’t regret it!
Chapter 5 - Choosing your GW1 squad
The opening gameweek is arguably the hardest time being an FPL manager, but also the
most freedom available. Starting the season with a £100m budget, each manager has to
select 2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders and 3 strikers.

Identifying which players are going to score the highest points can be a very tough task,
however we think there are guidelines to follow so that you don’t stray too far wrong.

Balance between budget and premium players

Having a £100m budget to spend, it is important for managers to prioritise the premium
players that they want in their squads. For many managers, they will aim to own at least 1
premium player in each of the outfield positions.

The best plan of action when deciding your opening team, is to plan what team structure
you plan on playing. For example, our team last season opted for a focus on premium
defenders and midfielders as we felt this provided the most value. This included the likes of
Mendy, Robertson, Salah, Sanchez – we know, big mistake with Sanchez – and then the
single premium striker in Aguero.

In order to afford these players, we decided that the goalkeepers were an area to save
money, going for a £4m non-playing goalkeeper with a £4.5m starting in Patricio. Our bench
followed suit, with 2 defenders and 1 midfielder valued in the lowest price ranges in their
positions. One of those defenders was Wan-Bissaka who proved to be a great example of a
playing-budget asset.

Although these aren’t always common, managers should target the budget players that are
also starters in their clubs. This avoids problems in the opening weeks if a player in your
starting 11 gets injured, you at least have a player to come in for a minimum 2 points.

Balance is everything in a team, and as mentioned we felt the balance should include
investment in the defence and midfield. Some managers however see value elsewhere, with
a triple up of premium forwards and a budget playing defence. Each style is different to
each manager. There, unfortunately is no magic combination that guarantees FPL success.

Promoted sides and their risk

Promoted sides start the season as untested FPL assets for managers, and with that can
bring risk. Norwich were the stand out team in the Championship last season, with their
man main Pukki spearheading their title winning campaign.

For some managers, a player like Pukki with a budget price tag can come across as FPL value
and in some cases it can. However, the main issue with these types of players in promoted
sides is the fear of the unknown. Many are unproven at the highest level and can see their
previous top performances fall at the hands of the Premier League.
Take, for example, Wolves’ Diogo Jota, who scored 17 and assisted 6 goals in 44
Championship matches. Selected by over 300,00 managers in gameweek 1 due to his
impressive performances, the Portuguese midfielder only managed 1 assist in his opening
14 Premier League games. This also saw his gametime reduced and clearly struggled to
adapt to the style of the top English league. As many know the second half of the season
was much more successful for Jota and will rightly be considered for the opening gameweek
of the new season.

Following on from Wolves, they are an example of the risk reward that is associated with
promoted sides. They went on to finish 7th in their first season back in the Premier League,
enjoying great wins over top 6 sides and some brilliant individual performances across the
season. These included the likes of Doherty and Jimenez who, like most promoted players,
started at a measly price tag.

There is plenty of potential to find some value in players from promoted sides, but we think
gameweek 1 isn’t the time to take these risks. We recommend managers taking the opening
gameweeks to assess the performance of both the teams and individual players to establish
if they have FPL potential.

Consider the opening fixtures

There are a handful of FPL players that many would deem fixture proof, including the likes
of Salah, Sterling and the Liverpool defence of last season. While these players don’t
require as much consideration, most others should be purchased with an eye on the
upcoming fixtures.

Certain players that are usually great FPL value, might lose their appeal due to a tough
opening run of fixtures. As an example, Arsenal face a tricky start to the season with
matches against both Liverpool and Spurs. While they have some attractive fixtures either
side, managers need to decide whether they have enough FPL value to afford some of the
premium prices. The likes of Aubameyang finished the season as the leading points scorer
for forwards, however other options might be worth considering who have a better start to
the season.

Fixture difficulty arguably affects lower sides in comparison to the big teams in the Premier
League. Therefore, when choosing those mid-priced/budget players for your Gameweek 1
squads, some teams might be much more appealing than others. Take Everton as an
example, who don’t face a ‘Top 6’ side in their opening 6 Premier League matches. Players
such as Richarlison should be a more favourable option over those players that have a much
tougher opening run of fixtures.
Proven player’s v risks

From our analysis of the FPL Dream Team over the years, it is clear that there are proven
players that continuously score high points year on year. Naturally proven players are
rewarded each year with price rises, making it harder every season to create a squad full of
these proven/consistent players.

The concept of a risky player doesn’t necessarily have to be something that should put off
managers owning them. As previously mentioned, we recommend avoiding players from
newly promoted teams and players new to the league that you are considering to be in your
main starting 11. The risk associated with these types of players usually doesn’t equal the
scores they generate, especially with other options in their price range.

We think that there is a fine line between a ‘risky’ player, and a player that is worth a
calculated risk. We view a risky player as having no Premier League experience, and only
selected based on some good performances in previous seasons. However, a calculated risk
should be made with the consideration of all the factors that we have mentioned before.
These include gametime security, whether they are FPL players – does their attributes
equate to goals/assists/clean sheets – that FPL score points for.

Monitor pre season

Previous seasons can provide insight into which players are established and great FPL value.
However, factors such as manager changes, transfer activity and formation changes can
shift the previous perceptions of teams and players.

Preseason is a great opportunity for managers to monitor the players on their watch list and
determine whether they have FPL potential. Chelsea are a great example under new
manager Frank Lampard, who has to negotiate his first season with a transfer ban.

From an FPL perspective, Chelsea have a mass of mid-priced players that could prove to be
amazing value. However, they are equally a risk with the unknown factor of how the team
will perform under Lampard. Therefore, watching closely over their preseason campaign can
help spot some potential gems and also those to not take unnecessary risks on.

Another factor to consider over preseason is summer competitions such as the African Cup
of Nations. Premier League players such as Salah, Mane and Mahrez have all featured
heavily throughout the competition, therefore their rest will happen later than the majority
of other players. Whether this has an impact on their gameweek 1 availability is unclear but
watching preseason closely will provide better information.
Chapter 6 – 2019/20 season analysis

Player price analysis

After FPL officially released on 27th June, there are a number of prices that have caught our
attention. Naturally there have been some significant price rises for the high performing
players of last season. Equally, price drops have come to those that had an underwhelming
season for their standards. The important thing about FPL prices is trying to determine
which players are truly worth their price tag, and therefore FPL value.

Goalkeepers

After keeping the two highest clean sheets in the league, Ederson and Alisson are rightly the
highest priced goalkeepers at £6.0m. Both received a £0.5m increase from their price tags
last season, with expectations of both teams continuing where they left off.

From a Man City perspective, rotation has always been an issue surrounding Pep Guardiola
sides. Ederson was only one of a few players that remained a constant throughout the
Premier League campaign, helped (unfortunately) by Claudio Bravo’s season-long injury. For
managers that want a piece of the Man City defense and worry about the potential of
rotation, then Ederson is a sure bet for both gametime security and clean sheet potential.

As for Alisson, while he remains a great FPL option for managers, you have to consider the
three available Liverpool slots. Liverpool’s defenders were the stand-out FPL options for
managers last season, with Robertson getting the highest ever points score for a defender.
A double up of Liverpool defenders was a popular tactic last season, and the same is likely to
happen this year. With the attacking potential both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson
process, to some it seems a waste to use a Liverpool slot on a goalkeeper.

Outside of the two best options, many have retained their value such as Lloris, Kepa and
Pickford. Meanwhile, De Gea has seen a price drop to £5.5m in the wake of Man United’s
terrible defensive performances last season. If United can steady the ship for next season,
De Gea could be one to watch, but not one to own in the opening gameweeks with a home
match against Chelsea to begin the season.

For those managers that are planning on playing with a £4.5m goalkeeper like ourselves,
then there are a few options available. We like the look of Burnley’s Nick Pope who has
returned to the side after a season of injury last year. The recent sale of Tom Heaton to
Aston Villa has made his position as the number 1 goalkeeper more secure. Of course they
have Joe Hart in their ranks however Pope looks the front runner right now.

Burnley suffered from a poor campaign last season, arguably being affected by the early
stages of the Europa League. Dyche is a solid manager that relies on clean sheets for results,
therefore we think Pope should be one of the top budget goalkeeper options. His 11 clean
sheets during their 7th place finish in 2017/18 highlighted his potential under Dyche.
Mat Ryan is our other £4.5m goalkeeper pick, a popular budget choice over the past 2
campaigns. The 2017/18 campaign saw Ryan keep 10 clean sheets for Brighton, while last
season reflected their season keeping only 6 clean sheets.

With some great fixtures including 3 home matches in the opening 5 games, Ryan is
certainly a consideration. Under new management in Potter, it is unclear what playing style
they will adopt in the Premier League. However, if they can make their home ground a
fortress, Ryan should be a great £4.5m option.

Defenders

As mentioned, the Liverpool defenders grabbed the headlines last season having the top 3
points scorers. Along with keeping 21 clean sheets in the league, Robertson managed 12
assists and Alexander-Arnold 13. Both have had their prices boosted to £7.0m, Alexander-
Arnold notably getting a £2.0m price rise.

We imagine that both of the mentioned full backs, including Van Dijk – priced at £6.5m –
will once again be popular this year. There is certainly an argument to double up on the
Liverpool defence once again this season. We think that at these prices, Robertson is our
first choice pick mainly due to his gametime security. Alexander-Arnold has the added
bonus of set pieces; however, will no doubt be under threat of rotation from the returning
Joe Gomez.

While only keeping 1 less clean sheet than Liverpool, Man City defenders don’t offer the
same attacking potential as those Liverpool full backs. This is largely due to the uncertainty
surrounding the left back position at City. Arguably first choice Mendy endured an injury-hit
campaign last season including publicly known friction with Pep. Mendy has been ruled out
until September, making the position uncertain as to who will start in Gameweek 1.

Man City’s Fabian Delph left for Everton over the summer, leaving Zinchenko and new-
signing Angelino competing. Zinchenko started 10 of the last 11 league games last season,
cementing the left back role – notably Mendy injured during the majority of this time.

Priced at £5.5m, we think Zinchenko could be a cheap option into the Man City backline.
Laporte is the best option, offering attacking potential and guaranteed gametime but at
£6.5m out of some budgets due to the Liverpool investments. While Zinchenko is a risk over
the long term, we think he is a good option if he secures the left back role in Mendy’s
absence.

A reminder to managers that an early Wildcard isn’t the worst use of the chip. Players such
as Zinchenko can serve brilliant short term value, and in the event of changes can be
rectified with the Wildcard.

Outside of the top 6 and another appealing full back is Everton’s Lucas Digne. Priced at
£6.0m, Everton kept plenty of clean sheets in the back end of the season, including the
attacking threat of Digne.
Everton don’t face a ‘Top 6’ side in their opening 6 Premier League matches, therefore
should be a team for managers to heavily consider in their gameweek 1 squads. After his
great performances last season, we think that Digne offers gametime security, attacking
potential and clean sheets to justify his £6.0m price tag. With the likely investment in one or
two Liverpool defenders, the question becomes whether you can lose money in other areas
to avoid Digne.

Last season’s budget defender Matt Doherty has been given a big price rise to £6.0m. After
4 goals and 7 assists from wing-back, he significantly over-performed for his £4.5m price tag
last season.

However, at £6.0m we think that he is priced too high to be considered in those opening
gameweek 1 squads. Wolves only kept 9 clean sheets last season, and at £6.0m, you want
your defender to be playing for a team keeping consistent clean sheets. Wolves also have a
tough run of fixtures to start the season, a great time to keep Doherty on the watch list to
see if he can replicate last season’s form. The jury is out right now for Doherty.

We can hear you cry, “who is this seasons Wan-Bissaka?”.

Well, unfortunately, we are going to disappoint as we haven’t found that player…yet.

Players like Wan-Bissaka are an example of a ‘break-out’ player that we discussed in
Chapter 2, and can be very hard to identify early. Monitoring the opening gameweeks are
essential when trying to find these players, as it provides more data and confirmation to
justify decisions.

Midfielders

Salah finished the season as the highest points scoring midfielder for the second season in a
row. Although he couldn’t match his incredible 303 points in the 2017/18 campaign, he still
scored 22 and assisted 12 totaling 259 points.

Surprisingly, Salah actually had a price drop this year, falling from last season’s £13.0m price
tag to £12.5m. A question many had was whether he would be reclassified as a striker after
featuring there for Liverpool, however, thankfully, he has remained as a midfielder –
claiming those extra points for a goal and clean sheet.

Similar to Alexander-Arnold and Robertson, the consideration of owning Salah was largely
dependent on the price rise of his midfield partner, Sadio Mane. After a personal best
season for the Senegalese man, his price was boosted from £9.5m to £11.5m.

With the lack of midfield alternatives as viable FPL assets, it seems the two star men are the
obvious choices in owning a piece of the Liverpool attack. While Salah is £1.0m more
expensive than Mane, we think that he is worth the additional money. As mentioned, Salah
has produced back-to-back top points scoring seasons, and his underlying stats match his
output.
Scoring 22 goals, he averaged a 21.79 xG throughout the season, suggesting that he
performed as expected. On the other hand, Mane’s stats hint towards an over performing
season. Mane equally scored 22 league goals but instead only managed a 16.76 xG,
highlighting the argument. In fact, Salah topped Mane in every department last season for
underlying stats:

Salah Mane
Sh90 3.77 2.53
Kp90 1.87 1.31
xG90 0.60 0.49
xA90 0.29 0.15

Of course, decisions can be made with many other factors, but the data does help in
predicting the upcoming performance of these players.

Away from Liverpool, it is only right to focus on the reigning Champions, Man City. Sterling
has been unsurprisingly valued as the most expensive City midfielder, priced at £12.0m –
sandwiched between Mane and Salah. After another stand-out season for both goals and
assists, he is clearly the best midfield option at Man City for FPL managers based on results.

However, whereas we feel Liverpool offer few alternatives to the premiums, Man City could
be the ones to watch. For those trying to balance a budget owning both Sterling and Salah,
we think there is an argument to downgrade Sterling rather than Salah.

A season full of injuries halted the progress of Kevin De Bruyne last season, only playing 968
minutes. However, over the previous 2 seasons before this, he produced some very notable
stats for FPL managers to consider.

Kevin De Bruyne:
Averaged 204 points
14 goals
39 assists
Averaged 2.69 sh90
Averaged 3.13 kp90

Raheem Sterling:
Averaged 231 points
35 goals
32 assists
Averaged 2.75 sh90
Averaged 2.02 kp90

What we think the stats confirm is that Sterling deserves to be the most expensive City
midfielder. Likewise, that he is most likely to continue being the highest scoring FPL
midfielder from the side. But, regarding team balance, FPL managers shouldn’t be scared to
own De Bruyne if they can’t afford Sterling. His stats suggest he is consistent in his attacking
influence, and if you can accept Sterling finishing top, we don’t think De Bruyne will be far
behind.

Everton have been identified for their brilliant run of opening fixtures, therefore Sigurdsson
priced at £8.0m should be in every manager’s minds. His stats last season highlighted the
attacking influence he has in the side, finishing the 4th highest point scoring midfielder. Set
piece responsibility – especially with penalties – gives him arguably the upper hand on his
same priced team mate Richarlison.

At the budget end of the midfielders, we think there is only one player that could provide
decent FPL value. Wolves’ Dendoncker has been priced at £4.5m having been a regular in
the side throughout the second half of the season.

Playing in a midfield 3, the defensive perception of him was somewhat dismissed last season
as he regularly took up attacking positions on the field. From the start of 2019 till gameweek
38, Dendoncker averaged an xG90 of 0.27, significantly better than both Neves and
Moutinho.

Forwards

Aguero has been priced as the most expensive forward, coming in at £12.0m. The Man City
striker has averaged 184 points over his 6 Premier League seasons, averaging 21.5 goals and
7.6 assists. He has been ‘Mr. Consistent’ over the years and rightly deserves the top price
after another great season, finishing 2nd behind Aubameyang.

While Aguero is expected to be Man City’s number 1 striker again this season, the shadow
of Jesus continues to question the Argentine’s gametime. While he played the 2nd most
minutes in a campaign, it begs to question whether Jesus will stay another season playing
little minutes under Pep. While Aguero is still a great FPL option, expect some potential
rotation with his Brazilian teammate.

Aubameyang and Kane make up the rest of the premium strikers, both priced at £11.0m.
For Kane, it has been a £1.5m price drop due to his injury-hit season last campaign, while
Aubameyang has remained the same price. We think both players are priced attractively,
especially considering the history Kane has to support the upcoming season.

Within the striker category, we always feel that there is a price gap that tends to not offer
FPL value for managers. This usually falls within the £8.5m - £10m bracket, offering proven
strikers that are just too much for those targeting mid-ranged options. It feels like the price
range where you would rather reach the additional £2m to own a premium player, and drop
the £2m to get a cheaper option and spread the budget elsewhere.

However, in this bracket is Jamie Vardy at £9.0m, arguably the best FPL option within this
range consisting of Lacazette, Firmino, Jesus, Lukaku and Rashford. The latter certainly has
the potential to prove that statement wrong, however competition for places still makes
him a worry for managers along with the goal scoring record. In fact, Rashford has failed to
score more than 10 goals in his 3 notable seasons at Man United, last season being his most
fruitful scoring 10 goals and 7 assists.

Vardy has proved his worth over the past 4 seasons, averaging 182 points, 19 goals and 5.75
assists. With the additional signings of Tielemans and Perez to add to the likes of Maddison,
Vardy will have plenty of creativity supporting him this season. We think at this price, Vardy
is the player to watch in this price range and with the team Rodgers is building could be
great FPL value.

Personal watch list

In preparation for building an FPL squad, we recommend keeping a watch list of interested
players. This can be done on the official fantasy premier league website, easily adding and
removing these players from the list.

We feel it is important to keep a watch list, to not only remind yourself of certain players
but to also track their form. While some players are too risky to own at the start of the
season, keeping tabs on them can justify ownership in future gameweeks.

Below we have highlighted our own watch list ahead of the opening gameweek 1.

Price
Goalkeepers
Pope £4.5m
Ryan £4.5m
Defenders
Robertson £7.0m
Alexander-Arnold £7.0m
Van Dijk £6.5m
Zinchenko £5.5m
Laporte £6.5m
Walker-Peters £5.0m
Digne £6.0m
Zouma £5.0m
Gibson £4.0m
Midfielders
Salah £12.5m
Sterling £12.0m
De Bruyne £9.5m
Barkley £6.0m
Mount £6.0m
Pogba £8.5m
Fraser £7.5m
Sigurdsson £8.0m
Perez £6.5m
Tielemans £6.5m
 Zaha £7.0m
Fornals £6.5m
Dendoncker £4.5m
Forwards
Kane £11.0m
Aubameyang £11.0m
Wilson £8.0m
King £6.5m
Vardy £9.0m
Abraham £7.0m
Barnes £6.5m
Adams £6.0m
Wickham £4.5m

As mentioned, this is our current watch list for gameweek 1 ranging from budget to
premium options. There are plenty of players that we haven’t included in this list, but this
watch list is tailored towards the short term rather than throughout the entire season.

To monitor our watch list throughout the season, you can find it on both our Twitter and
website where we will be updating it throughout the season.
VAR introduction

The video assistant referee (VAR) is a match official in a football match who reviews
decisions made by the head referee with the use of video footage. VAR is used for three
main incidents (plus one administrative) throughout the match, these include:

• Goals – VAR is used to assist the referee to determine whether there was an
infringement that means a goal should not be awarded.
• Penalty decisions – VAR is used to ensure that no clearly wrong decisions are
made in conjunction with the award or non-award of a penalty kick.
• Direct red card incidents – Used to ensure that no clearly wrong decisions are
made in conjunction with sending off or not sending off a player.
• Mistaken identity – VAR is used to ensure the correct player is sanctioned if the
referee is unsure.

This is the first season VAR will be used in the Premier League, with the global trial featured
during the recent World Cup. With the introduction of VAR, we have studied whether it
could affect the Premier League and whether FPL decisions should be made with
considerations to VAR.

VAR brought an element of drama to the recent World Cup, and recently implemented in
the Nations League. An example of this was Callum Wilson’s late goal against Switzerland
being ruled out for a foul after the referee referred to VAR. While these decisions cause
controversy for the affected teams, the decisions are being made correctly.

Penalties are one of the major areas that have come under the microscope after the
introduction of VAR. The Nations League highlighted this once more in the semi-final of
Portugal’s clash with Switzerland. Appeals were made by Switzerland after Zuber appeared
to be dragged down in the box, only for the ref to continue play and enable Portugal to
counter.

This resulted in Bernardo Silva being bundled over in the Switzerland box, with the referee
pointing for a Portugal penalty. However, after the game was stopped the referee consulted
VAR and determined the original foul on Zuber was worthy of a penalty, and changed the
original decision to a Switzerland penalty.

The point of this example is that players – especially defenders – don’t have the luxury of
getting as many decisions go their way unfairly. The use of VAR will put an emphasis on
defending and on the flip side the attacking players, with the controversial simulation for
penalties.

It seems that VAR next season will naturally increase the amount of penalties awarded, with
those being missed having the benefit of video assistance. However, a recent study by The
Economist analysed the use of VAR in 6 major leagues and how it impacted the penalty
count.
The study looked at the Bundesliga, Serie A, Primiera Liga, A-League, Major League Soccer
and the K League. It looked at both the seasons prior to the introduction of VAR and the
seasons that have used the video assistance. What the study found is that the use of VAR on
average did not affect the amount of penalties awarded. It suggested that for every extra
spot kick that the VAR has spotted, there is another that is cancelled.

(Sourced from www.economist.com)

The chart above highlights the minimal impact VAR had on 6 major leagues in world
football. However, it is also important to reference the most recent use of VAR which so
happens to be during the 2018 World Cup.

The recent World Cup saw the most penalties ever awarded during the competitions
history. During 64 matches, 29 penalties were awarded, a sharp increase on the 2014 World
Cup (13).

World Cup Matches Played Penalties Awarded Penalties per game

2018 Russia 64 29 0.45
2014 Brazil 64 13 0.20
2010 South Africa 64 15 0.23
2006 Germany 64 17 0.27
2002 South 64 18 0.28
Korea/Japan

As it can be seen from the table, 2018 significantly had the most penalties awarded in
comparison to any other year. However, it is still unclear whether this is solely down to the
introduction of VAR or an anomaly tournament consisting of silly fouls.
From analysing both VAR at the most recent World Cup and influence in multiple world
leagues, we think VAR will have an impact in some capacity. The data shows that it hasn’t
had a significant impact on leagues, which is the closest relation to the Premier League.

We think that FPL decisions shouldn’t necessarily be made based upon whether the player is
a penalty taker or not. However, we do think that the data indicates a possibility of an
increased importance in these penalty takers. Whether the data this season follows the
extreme trend of the World Cup or the world leagues, analysing the opening few months of
the Premier League is important.

Similar to promoted sides or new players, observing rather than investing can usually be a
smart, low risk move. As it is an unknown factor, like VAR, it is difficult to know how it is all
going to play out. We do think that the introduction of VAR should not put you off from
owning set piece takers, as it still remains a great FPL trait.

Set piece takers

On the note of VAR and the impact it may have on resulting free kicks and penalties, it begs
the question whether managers should focus on owning those with the responsibilities.
These players have the added benefit of potential attacking returns. While we don’t think
you should pick a player solely on set piece responsibility, it can be the deciding factor in
some cases.

In order to know who these players are, we have looked at each side and identified the
players who have set piece responsibilities.

Arsenal

Penalties – Lacazette, Aubameyang

Free kicks – Xhaka, Lacazette, Mkhitaryan
Corners – Xhaka, Ozil, Mkhitaryan

Aston Villa

Penalties – Unknown (Was Abraham last season, now returned to his parent club, Chelsea)
Free kicks – Grealish, Hourihane
Corners - Grealish, Hourihane

Bournemouth

Penalties – King, Wilson

Free kicks – Fraser, Stanislas
Corners – Fraser, Stanislas, Brooks
Brighton

Penalties – Murray, Groß

Free kicks – Groß, March
Corners – Groß, March

Burnley

Penalties – Wood, Barnes

Free kicks – Gudmundsson, McNeil, Brady
Corners – Gudmundsson, Westwood, McNeil, Brady

Chelsea

Penalties – Jorginho, Barkley, Abraham

Free kicks – Alonso, Luiz, Willian
Corners – Willian

Crystal Palace

Penalties – Milivojevic
Free kicks – Milivojevic, Townsend, Meyer
Corners – Milivojevic, Townsend

Everton

Penalties – Sigurdsson, Baines

Free kicks – Sigurdsson, Digne
Corners - Sigurdsson, Digne

Leicester City

Penalties – Vardy, Maddison

Free kicks – Maddison
Corners – Maddison, Albrighton

Liverpool

Penalties – Milner, Salah, Mane

Free kicks – Alexander-Arnold, Salah
Corners – Alexander-Arnold, Salah

Man City

Penalties – Aguero, Jesus

Free kicks – De Bruyne, D.Silva, Sane
Corners – De Bruyne, Mahrez, D.Silva, Sane

Man United

Penalties – Pogba, Rashford

Free kicks – Rashford, Pogba, Young
Corners – Young, Shaw

Newcastle

Penalties – Ritchie
Free kicks – Ritchie, Shelvey
Corners - Ritchie, Shelvey

Norwich

Penalties – Pukki, Vrancic

Free kicks – Vrancic, Buendia
Corners – Buendia, Leitner

Sheffield United

Penalties – McGoldrick, Sharp, Norwood

Free kicks – Norwood, Fleck
Corners – Norwood, Fleck

Southampton

Penalties – Ings, Ward-Prowse, Austin

Free kicks – Ward-Prowse, Redmond
Corners – Ward-Prowse, Redmond, Bertrand

Tottenham

Penalties – Kane
Free kicks – Eriksen, Kane
Corners – Eriksen

Watford

Penalties – Deeney, Gray, Deulofeu

Free kicks – Holebas, Deulofeu, Pereyra
Corners - Holebas, Deulofeu, Pereyra
West Ham

Penalties – Noble
Free kicks – Anderson, Snodgrass
Corners – Snodgrass, Anderson, Cresswell

Wolves

Penalties – Neves, Jimenez

Free kicks – Neves, Moutinho
Corners - Neves, Moutinho

As discussed in the previous section regarding VAR, the data doesn’t conclude that penalties
will increase significantly this season. In regards to FPL, players with set piece
responsibilities still remain attractive options. The addition of penalty potential is an FPL
factor that can easily sway a player when making a choice between options.

You only have to look at Crystal Palace’s Milivojević to see the influence set pieces have on
certain player’s value. We recommend managers trying to own players in their squads who
are responsible for their set pieces in their respective sides. The increased attacking
potential shouldn’t be overlooked, especially those players that are defenders like Digne
and Alexander-Arnold.

These two players have proved the influence set pieces can have on the overall FPL score
throughout the season. Free kicks and corners are equally important to penalties due to the
frequency that they occur throughout matches.
Chapter 7 - Mental health
We have been an active member of the FPL Community on both Twitter and Instagram for
just under a year now. The value of creating and interacting with a community, is the sense
of belonging and shared interests you have with somewhat strangers online. For many
people, they play FPL with their friends or work colleagues for fun and to earn bragging
rights. Others play the game to try and be the best in their friendship group, mini league or
on the planet.

Being our first season balancing both the playing of FPL and the distribution of content, we
have seen first-hand how the stress of the game can affect individuals. We have witnessed
people suffer at the hands of FPL, much more common than what we had imagined.

An FPL season can be a long and gruelling period of time spent caught up in your own mind,
analysing to find the perfect formula. We have been in these very shoes, spending countless
late nights stressing over which player to transfer or captain to choose. And while to some
this might seem like an overreaction – and we would have been in the same boat only a few
years back – it is what many people have experienced from the game.

We wanted to take this opportunity of creating this content, to talk directly to those that
might suffer from playing FPL. Playing FPL should be about having some fun on a Friday
night before the football-filled weekend, enjoying the game for what it is. There are plenty
of people that take FPL more serious than others, and don’t suffer from any kind of side
effect from the game.

But for those that can relate to these things, we want you to know you are not alone. It’s
easy for us to say “it’s just a game”, but we’ve been told that in the past and know it isn’t
the answer.

Instead, we think the answer is to be open to those that can relate and understand the
situation that the game has created. Therefore, we have launched an FPL mental health chat
where those that are suffering can come together to help one another. It’s crazy how a
game played with millions, can make you feel so isolated.

So if you are someone who might benefit from this, or know someone who might, head over
to this new chat and become part of the community. Equally, you can DM us at any point
throughout the season, our inbox is always open to people. Please don’t suffer this season
alone, we want to create a community that can both play FPL competitively and enjoy it.

To access our ‘FPL Time Out’ chat, email from your usual email address to
footballadvicebusiness@gmail.com, with the subject line ‘FPL Time Out’ and provide your
name.

Our slack channel requires an email address to add individuals, so we will use your provided
information to add you accordingly. Again, please take this opportunity if this relates to you
to join and talk about all things outside of FPL.
Thank you
If you have made it this far, then we love you!

Thanks for taking the time to read this FPL guide and hopefully it will lead to a personal best
overall rank for many managers. However, for us the importance isn’t necessarily helping
managers to get their best rank this season, but instead to improve knowledge and decision
making in the game.

The best tip we can provide isn’t about a player or formation, instead it’s to remember FPL
is just a game. We’ve discussed about the stress the game can cause to people and we want
to remind about the fun it should bring. If the game stops being fun, then stop playing the
game or take time away.

Thank you to everyone that has supported our channel over the past year, it has been a
great experience engaging with people in the community.

If you enjoyed this guide, then be sure to pass it on to the mate of yours who needs all the
help they can get! For more content like this, you can follow our account via all the usual
social media channels:

Website: http://www.footballadvice.co.uk/
Twitter: @footballadvice5
Instagram: fplfootballadvice
Facebook: fplfootballadvice
YouTube: FPLFootballAdvice
Podcast: The FPLFootballAdvice Pod

We wish the best for the season ahead, the pain and heartache is finally back…...we
wouldn’t have it any other way.
Useful resources
Below is a list of some useful websites and accounts that we have used throughout both this
guide and over previous FPL seasons.

fantasy.premierleague.com – Official FPL website

understat.com – Player statistics

whoscored.com – Player statistics

fantasyfootballfix.com – Player comparison/price change predictor

fplstatistics.co.uk – Price change predictor

footballadvice.co.uk – FPL advice and tips

@BenCrellin – FPL chips and fixture planning

@BenDinnery – Player injury updates