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Update Harga: Real-Time: Quality
Update Harga: Real-Time: Quality
Update Harga: Real-Time: Quality
untuk diskon yang lebih dari 50%, harus dikroscek ke intrinsic valuation, atau dianalisa apakah ada potensi
Warning!! setelah fundamental perusahaan masuk secara kuantitatif, silahkan dianalisa secara kualitatif (apa keunggu
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)
QUALITY
Update harga: real-time Dividend QUANTITATIVE
Revenue Net Income Average
Payment
Symbol Stock Price (Growth: 3 (Growth: 3 ROE 5 Year
Streak
IDX:BBCA 31,000 Year)9.0% Year)
11.5% (%) 18.9
(Annual) 12
IDX:BBRI 3,160 9.3% 9.5% 12 20.06
IDX:TLKM 3,100 8.5% 5.2% 11 21.45
IDX:BMRI 5,300 6.0% 25.8% 12 14.42
IDX:HMSP 1,660 3.6% 2.4% 11 44.11
IDX:ASII 4,890 9.4% 12.7% 11 14.7
IDX:ICBP 9,300 7.1% 11.9% 9 19.8
IDX:GGRM 47,025 13.2% 17.7% 11 18.18
IDX:CPIN 6,225 15.3% 17.9% 10 17.15
IDX:BBNI 4,750 9.4% 10.7% 12 14.17
IDX:KLBF 1,480 5.3% 2.9% 11 17.83
IDX:UNVR 8,000 2.3% 5.0% 11 130.53
IDX:INDF 6,575 4.7% 5.8% 11 13.21
IDX:MYOR 2,200 10.9% 13.6% 11 19.8
IDX:MEGA 6,275 6.6% 20.0% 6 10.6
IDX:PTBA 2,110 15.7% 26.5% 11 25.59
IDX:ACES 1,565 18.2% 13.2% 11 22.83
IDX:MLBI 10,000 4.4% 7.1% 11 103.77
IDX:SIDO 1,230 6.2% 18.9% 7 20.38
IDX:PWON 406 15.3% 26.3% 8 23.16
, atau dianalisa apakah ada potensi penurunan laba permanen
alisa secara kualitatif (apa keunggulan kompetitifnya, bagaimana prospek ke depan, dsb)
soft Excel (.xlsx)
QUALITY
NTITATIVEAverage Net Debt to QUALITATIVE Current RELA
Market Cap Economic INTRINSIC
Profit Margin Equity Ratio EPS PE Ratio
(milyar) Moat, prospect
5 Year
34.3% 764,305 (Quarter)
0.02 1158.6 (TTM)
26.8
28.8% 389,773 0.02 278.7 11.3
15.8% 308,083 0.51 204.5 15.2
23.8% 243,705 0.02 588.9 9.0
12.6% 193,088 0.01 118.0 14.1
8.7% 197,965 0.66 526.2 9.3
10.2% 108,747 0.09 432.1 21.5
9.0% 90,528 0.09 5702.4 8.2
6.3% 101,668 0.24 221.7 28.1
25.2% 87,880 0 825.0 5.8
11.5% 69,141 0.07 55.1 26.9
17.6% 306,154 0.28 196.8 40.7
5.7% 57,731 0.62 559.0 11.8
6.7% 49,189 0.6 88.9 24.7
21.2% 43,261 0.08 314.3 20.0
18.9% 24,309 0.01 331.8 6.4
13.1% 26,668 0.03 60.1 26.1
30.7% 21,070 0.89 525.0 19.0
21.9% 18,375 0 55.4 22.2
39.1% 19,456 0.35 60.5 6.7
VALUATION
Mean PERELATIVE
Mean PE( Earning
Mean PEand Book ValueCurrent
Multiples)
Standard Standard Standard Mean PBV Mean PBV Mean PBV
BVPS PBV (3 Year) (5 Year) (10 Year)
Deviation Deviation Deviation
25.0 (5 Year)
22.5 (10 Year)
20.6 7049.7 (TTM)4.4 4.3 4.1 4.3
(3 Year)
14.3 13.0 12.0 1671.0 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.9
19.6 20.3 16.9 1006.3 3.1 4.3 4.4 4.1
15.3 14.4 13.8 4375.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.4
30.0 34.1 28.8 306.5 5.4 12.3 15.9 19.0
15.1 16.8 15.6 3816.3 1.3 2.3 2.5 3.5
26.3 27.3 24.6 2167.8 4.3 5.4 5.5 5.0
17.2 17.7 19.8 27704.4 1.7 3.2 3.1 3.5
25.6 26.3 23.3 1285.3 4.8 4.4 4.3 5.6
10.2 10.1 11.3 6551.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.7
29.0 30.9 30.6 350.9 4.2 5.1 5.8 6.7
46.5 48.8 43.5 189.2 42.3 55.8 56.1 46.8
15.1 16.4 16.2 4301.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.4
33.0 31.9 27.2 432.0 5.1 7.0 6.6 5.8
21.3 21.6 16.9 2258.1 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.2
8.2 9.2 12.7 1716.7 1.2 2.5 2.3 3.9
27.6 25.7 26.1 275.9 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.2
27.6 28.1 28.0 609.4 16.4 39.5 37.0 37.6
20.3 19.4 20.9 219.9 5.6 4.4 3.9 3.9
13.7 14.3 20.1 299.2 1.4 2.6 2.9 4.0
VALUATION
RV1 RV2 RV3 RV4 RV5 RV6 Relative
Avg PE (3 Avg PE (5 Avg PE (10 Avg PBV (3 Avg PBV (5 Avg PBV (10 Fair Value
Year) Year) Year) Year) Year) Year) (minimum)
28,976 26,115 23,890 30,455 28,622 30,455 23,890
3,996 3,617 3,352 4,244 4,127 4,913 3,352
4,012 4,160 3,462 4,317 4,448 4,096 3,462
9,004 8,457 8,097 8,356 8,356 10,544 8,097
3,541 4,024 3,398 3,777 4,877 5,821 3,398
7,940 8,851 8,230 8,739 9,541 13,166 7,940
11,363 11,800 10,616 11,598 11,945 10,904 10,616
98,082 100,933 112,623 87,823 86,992 96,688 86,992
5,670 5,838 5,173 5,681 5,463 7,236 5,173
8,373 8,316 9,314 9,303 9,172 11,334 8,316
1,598 1,700 1,683 1,804 2,032 2,361 1,598
9,142 9,609 8,558 10,562 10,617 8,858 8,558
8,424 9,145 9,028 8,475 8,948 10,454 8,424
2,932 2,839 2,416 3,042 2,856 2,484 2,416
6,691 6,775 5,308 5,261 5,103 4,855 4,855
2,704 3,059 4,204 4,240 4,017 6,661 2,704
1,655 1,541 1,565 1,779 1,644 1,697 1,541
14,490 14,768 14,694 24,097 22,518 22,926 14,490
1,125 1,073 1,158 961 847 866 847
830 864 1,217 769 868 1,206 769
Relative
Discount Discount
Fair Value
(minimum) (median)
(median)
28,799 -30% -8%
4,062 6% 22%
4,128 10% 25%
8,406 35% 37%
3,900 51% 57%
8,795 38% 44%
11,481 12% 19%
97,385 46% 52%
5,675 -20% -10%
9,238 43% 49%
1,752 7% 16%
9,375 7% 15%
8,988 22% 27%
2,847 9% 23%
5,285 -29% -19%
4,111 22% 49%
1,650 -2% 5%
18,643 31% 46%
1,017 -45% -21%
866 47% 53%
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)
INTRINSIC VALUATION
BBCA
EPS = 0 - 10
Growth 1158
years = 9% p.a.
Discountafter
Growth Rate 10= 8.50% nilai harus > 4.5% (BI R
years = 3% p.a.
Rasio Campuran
1 Current Ratio = Aset lancar / Liabilitas Jangka Pendek
PWON DILD
Aset lancar = 9587 4762
Liabilitas Jangka Pendek = 3611 3651
Current Ratio = 2.65 1.30
PWON DILD
Utang berbunga = 5037 5202
Ekuitas Entitas Induk = 14410 5952
Debt to Equity Ratio = 0.35 0.87
PWON DILD
Laba bersih periode berjalan 2494 82.929
Pendapatan = 5240 1854
Net Profit Margin = 47.60% 4.47%
PWON DILD
Laba bersih periode
berjalan entitas induk = 2868 8.67
Ekuitas Entitas Induk = 14410 5952
Return on Equity (ROE) 19.90% 0.15%
PWON DILD
Laba usaha = 3,529.33 322.67
Ekuitas = 17360 6515
Utang berbunga = 5037 5202
Return on Capital (ROC) 15.76% 2.75%
xcel (.xlsx)
itas Jangka Pendek EPS 9M 44.65 * (Laba bersih berjalan yang diatribusikan kepada entitas induk)
=2150176250*1000/48159602400
EPS 1Y = 59.53
de berjalan / Pendapatan
price 650
jml lembar 18.56 Milyar P/E ratio
market cap 12,064 Milyar PBV
Annualized Net Profit Q1 2020 712 Milyar
Annualized Ekuitas Q1 2020 16,910 Milyar
Annualized Net profit per lembar 38
Annualized Ekuitas per lembar 911
IDX:BRIS
price 486
jml lembar 9.72 Milyar P/E ratio
market cap 4,722 Milyar PBV
Net Profit 2019 74 Milyar
Ekuitas 2019 5,088 Milyar
Net profit per lembar 8
Ekuitas per lembar 524
xcel (.xlsx)
16.94 Annualized
0.71 Annualized
63.81
0.93
P/S ratio
Relative Valuation
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
PBV
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
P/S ratio
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Apabila ingin mendownload spreadsheet ini, silahkan klik File > Download > Microsoft Excel (,xlsx)
IDX:CTRA
MoS =
Diskon saat ini =
IDX:BBCA
MoS =
Diskon saat ini =
IDX:PWON
MoS =
Diskon saat ini =
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Saat ini avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018
16.94 7.8 7.8 7.83 16,67 19,29 16,35 13,82 15,81 17,89 25,89 27,16
0.71 2.5 2.77 2.63 2.58 2.85 2.64 2.47 2.24 2.13 2.77 2.69
300 300
2,278 2,524
300
1,351
30% 945
51.9%
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Saat ini avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
26.76 21.8 19.4 28.9 26.5 27.1 25.9 24.8 23.8 21.9 24.1 23.2
4.39 4.005 4.17 4.74 4.46 4.63 4.31 4.23 4.15 3.87 4.21 4.11
25,222 22,419
28,272 29,436
22,419
26,337
10% 23,704
-17.7%
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Saat ini avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
6.68 14.5 16.4 11.0 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.1 12.1 14.5 17.6
1.35 3 3.735 2.22 2.58 2.49 2.37 2.1 2.29 2.79 3.2
883 997
902 1,123
883
976
50% 488
58.4%
2017 2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014
24,59 23,37 22,54 24,43 23,89 29,64 21,32 16,68 17,44 8,97 15,95 16,88 14,31 13,32
2.38 2.5 2.23 1.97 2.14 2 2.5 2.5 1.99 2.5 3.41 2.95 2.82 3
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
22.4 20.8 19.4 18.6 19.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 17.1 19.4 21.7 19.6 20.0 17.2
3.93 3.71 3.45 3.4 3.55 3.18 3.25 3.67 3.52 4.08 4.58 4.17 4.32 3.86
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
16.5 17.7 20.1 16.3 23.1 21.1 15.8 18.9 6.7 8.8 10.1 9.9 12.5 12.0
2.97 3.16 3.28 3.13 3.92 3.75 3 3.31 2.35 3.09 3.82 4.02 3.91 3.68
2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011
12,21 17,80 11,65 15,97 24,29 22,69 20,60 23,60 26,74 29,02 25,21 19,51 17,99 15,48
2.99 2.26 2.43 2.79 3.34 2.65 3.07 2.84 3.14 3.35 3.21 3.88 3.53 3.53
2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
17.4 16.6 17.9 19.4 22.8 19.1 17.0 15.9 17.8 18.2 18.9 20.3 20.0 18.6
3.85 3.71 4.03 4.28 4.97 4.33 3.96 3.96 4.45 4.7 4.77 5.08 4.75 4.63
2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
13.9 11.5 12.9 16.3 20.9 14.5 18.2 17.5 24.5 26.1 23.2 28.9 26.5 27.4
3.95 3.35 3.77 4.92 5.76 3.72 4.75 3.7 4.11 4.05 4.61 5.9 5.56 6.09
2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009
13,63 18,84 18,80 36,39 16,23 12,69 13,98 5,65
3.77 3.76 3.36 3.46 3.58 2.97 2.14 2.52
Pengeluaran bulanan = 10 jt
Pengeluaran tahunan = 120 jt
Inflasi = 4%
Pensiun kita brp tahun lagi = 20
IDX:BBRI
Saat ini
price 3,160 P/E ratio 11.34
jml lembar 123.35 Milyar PBV 2.20
market cap 389,773 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 34,372 Milyar x Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 206,323 Milyar x P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 279 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 1,437 Konservatif
Moderat
MoS = 30%
Diskon saat ini = 10.0%
IDX:BBNI
Saat ini
price 4,750 P/E ratio 5.69
jml lembar 18.50 Milyar PBV 0.82
market cap 87,880 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 834 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 5,763 Konservatif
Moderat
MoS = 40%
Diskon saat ini = 44.4%
IDX:PWON
Saat ini
price 406 P/E ratio 6.68
jml lembar 47.92 Milyar PBV 1.35
market cap 19,456 Milyar
Net Profit Entitas Induk 2019 2,913 Milyar Nilai wajar
Ekuitas Entitas Induk 2019 14,411 Milyar P/E ratio
Net profit per lembar 61 PBV
Ekuitas per lembar 301 Konservatif
Moderat
MoS = 50%
Diskon saat ini = 57.6%
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
12.16 11.28 10.84 15.8 15.1 16.0 15.4 14.0 12.2 11.5 14.9 15.5
2.5 2.73 2.1 2.63 2.58 2.85 2.64 2.47 2.24 2.13 2.77 2.69
3,389 3,143
3,593 3,923
3,143
3,512
2,458
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2020 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017
9.8 10.6 4.6 9.5 8.8 11.3 11.4 10.9 9.3 9.0 11.5 13.6
1.345 1.64 0.66 1.19 1.15 1.5 1.55 1.52 1.36 1.34 1.67 1.87
8,186 8,804
7,751 9,452
7,751
8,548
5,129
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
avg 5y avg 10+y 2019 2019 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 2017 2017
13.6 16.3 10.1 11.0 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.1 12.1 14.5 17.6 16.5
2.985 3.72 1.83 2.22 2.58 2.49 2.37 2.1 2.29 2.79 3.2 2.97
826 991
898 1,119
826
958
479
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
13.6 13.7 12.0 11.0 11.6 10.4 11.1 11.1 8.7 10.5 13.4 11.9 10.7 11.1
2.38 2.5 2.23 1.97 2.14 2 2.5 2.5 1.99 2.5 3.41 2.95 2.82 3
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014
10.0 9.2 10.4 9.1 9.6 8.8 10.5 10.3 8.4 11.9 12.0 10.6 10.2 9.2
1.45 1.35 1.38 1.18 1.22 1.2 1.24 1.22 1.25 1.67 2.25 1.93 1.84 1.66
2017 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2014 2014 2014
17.7 20.1 16.3 23.1 21.1 15.8 18.9 6.7 8.8 10.1 9.9 12.5 12.0 13.9
3.16 3.28 3.13 3.92 3.75 3 3.31 2.35 3.09 3.82 4.02 3.91 3.68 3.95
2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
10.6 8.4 8.5 9.5 11.1 9.2 10.3 9.2 10.7 11.0 9.5 11.5 11.3 11.3
2.99 2.26 2.43 2.79 3.34 2.65 3.07 2.84 3.14 3.35 3.21 3.88 3.53 3.53
2014 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010
9.9 8.1 8.9 10.0 12.4 9.8 10.8 11.2 12.2 12.2 13.3 14.8 17.1 17.6
1.81 1.55 1.67 1.82 2.09 1.59 1.78 1.82 1.91 1.88 1.95 2.13 2.18 2.18
2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010
11.5 12.9 16.3 20.9 14.5 18.2 17.5 24.5 26.1 23.2 28.9 26.5 27.4 88.4
3.35 3.77 4.92 5.76 3.72 4.75 3.7 4.11 4.05 4.61 5.9 5.56 6.09 7.29
2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008
14.2 14.1 13.1 12.9 13.2 11.7 8.3 9.5
3.77 3.76 3.36 3.46 3.58 2.97 2.14 2.52
INTRINSIC VALUATION
BBRI
CAEPS = 241.58
Discount0 Rate
Growth - 10 = 10.00% = 7% + 0.6*(12%-7%)
years = after 10
Growth 6% p.a.
years = after 20
Growth 3.0% p.a.
years = 2.0% p.a.
NW BBRI = 3,809
PE IHSG 14.93
PBV IHSG 1.3688
PS IHSG 1.2688
ROE 9.17%
NPM 8.50%
Ini adalah request di Kolom Komentar WBI Ep. 19 untuk Mencari Bobot Saham IDX30
Free Float
Update 4 Mei 2020, sumber: https://www.idx.co.id/data-pasar/data-saham/indeks-saham/
Market Cap
Ticker Saham Lembar Harga (Milyar)
IDX:BBCA BBCA 5,566,812,058 31000 172,571.17
IDX:BBRI BBRI 51,328,401,502 3160 162,197.75
IDX:TLKM TLKM 45,318,430,440 3100 140,487.13
IDX:BMRI BMRI 18,479,999,999 5300 97,944.00
IDX:ASII ASII 18,254,034,111 4890 89,262.23
IDX:UNVR UNVR 5,497,415,000 8000 43,979.32
IDX:CPIN CPIN 6,578,877,600 6225 40,953.51
IDX:BBNI BBNI 7,384,867,957 4750 35,078.12
IDX:BRPT BRPT 24,773,325,538 1225 30,347.32
IDX:KLBF KLBF 20,643,803,777 1480 30,552.83
IDX:SMGR SMGR 2,904,665,344 9525 27,666.94
IDX:INDF INDF 4,344,555,032 6575 28,565.45
IDX:UNTR UNTR 1,508,093,635 18350 27,673.52
IDX:INTP INTP 1,795,336,700 11675 20,960.56
IDX:ICBP ICBP 2,332,381,600 9300 21,691.15
IDX:ADRO ADRO 15,964,193,634 1105 17,640.43
IDX:GGRM GGRM 330,173,501 47025 15,526.41
IDX:HMSP HMSP 8,654,064,921 1660 14,365.75
IDX:INKP INKP 2,196,052,553 7850 17,239.01
IDX:PGAS PGAS 10,433,545,128 1160 12,102.91
IDX:ACES ACES 6,865,145,000 1565 10,743.95
IDX:PTBA PTBA 3,884,766,299 2110 8,196.86
IDX:JPFA JPFA 5,525,562,235 1170 6,464.91
IDX:MNCN MNCN 6,808,273,759 910 6,195.53
IDX:INCO INCO 2,014,095,859 3160 6,364.54
IDX:ANTM ANTM 8,365,109,201 675 5,646.45
IDX:BBTN BBTN 4,193,640,000 1325 5,556.57
IDX:WSKT WSKT 4,609,713,760 720 3,318.99
IDX:PTPP PTPP 3,037,949,703 990 3,007.57
IDX:ERAA ERAA 1,451,131,000 1390 2,017.07
1,104,317.96
deks-saham/
Bobot
15.63%
14.69%
12.72%
8.87%
8.08%
3.98%
3.71%
3.18%
2.75%
2.77%
2.51%
2.59%
2.51%
1.90%
1.96%
1.60%
1.41%
1.30%
1.56%
1.10%
0.97%
0.74%
0.59%
0.56%
0.58%
0.51%
0.50%
0.30%
0.27%
0.18%
100.00%
Lower Risk Market Risk (IHSG)
Beta 0.5 0.75 1
1 ROE 25.0% 17.5% 10.0%
2 DER 10.0% 25.0% 50.0%
3 NPM 20.0% 10.0% 8.5%
4 Profit Margin Stab (covariance) 2.5% 7.5% 10.0%
5 Earning's Predictability (R) 97.5% 85.0% 75.0%
6 Market cap (size, in Bio) 200 100 50
et Risk (IHSG) Higher Risk Input Value
1.5 2
7.5% 5.0% 20.0% 0.67
100.0% 200.0% 0.0% 0.50
5.0% 2.5% 25.0% 0.50
15.0% 20.0% 5.0% 0.63
50.0% 25.0% 99.0% 0.50
10 1 250 0.50
BETA = 0.55
Adjustment = 0.00
FINAL BETA = 0.55