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Korea's Position in The ASEAN+3 Process: Review of Performance and Policy Implications
Korea's Position in The ASEAN+3 Process: Review of Performance and Policy Implications
Implications
Author(s): Inkyo Cheong
Source: The Journal of East Asian Affairs , Fall/Winter 2008, Vol. 22, No. 2
(Fall/Winter 2008), pp. 63-95
Published by: Institute for National Security Strategy
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extend access to The Journal of East Asian Affairs
Inkyo Cheong
Inha University
Abstract
For several years after the financial crisis, Korea was quite an active
participant in the ASEAN+3 process, leading the discussions on
East Asian economic cooperation through the proposals for the
establishment of the East Asian Vision Group (EAVG) and the East
Asian Study Group (EASG). At that time, it was difficult for China
and Japan, which tend to distrust each other and hold each other in
check, to carry out active roles in these ongoing processes. This
paper examines the position of Korea and the country's contribution
to East Asian economic integration in the ASEAN+3 process after
it overcame its financial crisis, and examines the current state of
affairs regarding the promotion of an East Asia FT A with China and
Japan. Based on such an analysis, the policy direction of the Korean
government and its implications will be presented. What position Lee
Myung-bak's government, which took power in 2008, will take with
regard to East Asian economic integration is not clearly known at
the present time. Before attending the next East Asia Summit meeting
for the first time since it took power, the government should solicit
the opinions of ordinary Koreans and experts through a public debate
on what direction East Asian economic cooperation should take in
the coming years.
Key Words: ASEAN+3, East Asian Summit, East Asian FTA, East
Asian Vision Group
INTRODUCTION
issues that could provoke the U.S. The hostility and distrust among
the East Asian countries, which originated from Japanese imperialism
in the past, have remained. Japan's refusal to officially apologize
for its past military aggression has become a hindering factor in
the promotion of closer East Asian regional integration.
China, meanwhile, has been adopting a considerably different
stance from the past regarding the issue of East Asian economic
integration. It now tends to avoid direct collusion with the U.S.,
but nowadays is actively proposing FTAs that can influence the
position of Japan in East Asia, such as a China-ASEAN FTA, a
China-Korea FTA, and an East Asian FTA. Particularly, since
joining the WTO and concluding its FTA with ASEAN, China has
become the leading proponent in the debate about East Asian
economic integration. In contrast, Japan has not changed its passive
position, but instead it is studying various measures to cope with
China's rise in East Asia, while at the same time Japan's position
within the region has weakened.
Japan's weakening influence within the region undoubtedly
contributed to the failure to conclude the Korea-Japan FTA in
2004, although there are other complex factors. There are many
political factors that could prevent East Asian regional integration,
but from an economic point of view, economic integration is needed.
Historically, East Asian countries have maintained very interdependent
and close relationships with one another. This is because the East
Asian region has achieved high economic growth and intraregional
trade has substantially expanded over the past several decades.
The high economic interdependence of East Asian countries can
be explained by empirical research, which shows that the flow of
trade between countries is inversely proportional to their distance,
when transportation costs are taken into account. Due to the
development of transportation technology, however, international
trade costs nowadays depend on investments in human and physical
resources that facilitate international trade, including the expansion
of knowledge on the language, culture, markets, and business
environments of trading partner countries and the formation of
networks with these countries.
Share 31 19 29 22 19 56
Share 5 28 20 9 15 1
Share 7 30 20 38 38 14
2 It is because Japan's ratio of trade to GDP is low with 20% that East
Asia's dependency on trade is low. But the entire ASEAN's share is very
high with 127%.
world's total GDP and 22% (2.71 trillion dollars) of the world's
total exports, thus maintaining its position as one of the world's
three largest economic blocs, the two others being the EU and
North America with global GDP shares of 28% and 30%, respectively.
East Asia's degree of dependence on trade was 54.3% in 2006,
which was higher than the world average of 45.5%2. The existing
six ASEAN member countries' dependence on trade is relatively
higher than that of the other East Asian countries.3 The trade
dependence of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, and Vietnam
exceeds 100%.
Table 2 shows the shares of the world's major economic blocs
in intraregional trade. It shows that the intraregional trade rate
of East Asia in 2003 accounted for 39.5%, which is below the
levels of both NAFTA and the EU. This is because the income
gap in East Asia is greater than in NAFTA and the EU, and
because intra-industrial trade accounts for much of East Asia's
intraregional trade. Recently, however, the proportion of intraregional
trade in East Asian intraregional trade has been increasing because
Japan and Korea have been increasingly investing in their production
bases in China and ASEAN, where wages are low. In other words,
the high-value-added core parts that are produced in Japan and
Korea are exported to East Asian production bases, and the
finished goods produced in these production bases are imported
back by Japan and Korea or exported to Third World countries.
Japan's and Korea's investments in the East Asian region are
the direct cause of the expansion of intraregional trade. From this,
it can be inferred that if Japan and Korea expand their foreign
investments depending on their respective industrial restructuring,
then intraregional trade will also expand. For this reason, a
considerable portion of East Asia's trade is composed of intra
corporate trade.
China, Japan, Korea 11.6 15.9 14.9 15.1 15.7 15.1 15.1 14.2 13.3
ASEAN 17.0 21.1 22.5 22.2 22.7 24.4 24.4 24.9 25.7
EU(25) 65.6 65.1 64.6 64.5 65.1 65.6 65.6 64.2 64.6
45.00
40.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
•— — cr> ^ ^ r~
nsnnn88888888
<N <N r-J <N
1998-2003
4 The major focused research projects of the East Asia Vision Group
(EAVG) include East Asia Summit Meetings, an East Asia Forum, the
establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Zone, and the establishment of an
East Asia Economic Community.
auspices of the WTO, but as Korea did not belong to any regional
bloc, the country was in a relatively unfavorable position compared
to other regions in terms of trade and investment. As such, China
and Japan were also pushing ahead with the conclusion of their
bilateral FTAs with ASEAN. In these international situations, Korea
should establish a grand strategy for cooperation with the East
Asian region, including with China, Japan, and the ASEAN; it should
explore detailed schemes to form closer trading relationships; and
it should form a national consensus. At the same time, the research
group felt that Korea needed to enhance its international position
by taking the leading role in the regional reorganization of East
Asia. The research group planned to develop a long-term strategy
for East Asian economic cooperation, and concretely recommended
projects as well as prepared for the ASEAN+3 Summit Meetings,
the summit meeting of China, Japan, and Korea, and the Korea
ASEAN summit meeting at the end of that year. The group tried
to develop the agenda for the 2001 Summit meeting, but as interest
in the ASEAN+3 Summit Meeting weakened in 2002, it was
virtually abolished. After that time, no government-support research
group on East Asia was formed, and East Asia seemed to be
merely one of several trading partners rather than a viewed as
a distinct region under the goal of economic integration.
In the latter half of President Kim Dae-jung's tenure, the Korean
government's interest in the ASEAN+3 Summit Meetings also
noticeably weakened. The report by one of the Korean news
medias on this issue at the time is summarized as follows.6
2003-2007
Germany and France built (a) base (for) peace in Europe through
economic integration, President Roh went to Japan and presented
his vision of Northeast Asian economic integration and joint
prosperity. One of his core subjects was the economic integration
of Northeast Asian countries, in the preliminary stage of which a
Korea-Japan FTA is important" (The Participatory Government
Economy: 5 Years).
On September 2, 2003, the Korean government finalized its
FTA Promotion Roadmap, which stipulated key policies that gave
priority to establishing a close relationship with the Northeast
Asian region. The roadmap was meant to actively utilize an FTA
as a policy tool for Korea to become a Northeast Asian business
hub. The government decided to enforce an FTA with Japan and
Singapore, which, had been promoted during the early stages of
the Kim Dae-jung government. The government also decided to
promote FTAs with the ASEAN and Mexico as soon as possible.
Furthermore, in the mid-term and the long term, the government
also decided to promote FTAs with large economic regions such
as the U.S. and the EU, a China-Japan-Korea FTA, and an East
Asia FTA.
As the Japan-Korea FTA experienced difficulties in negotiations,
the road driven by Korea to Northeast Asian economic integration
became increasingly rough. Moreover, due to the competition
between Japan and China for regional hegemony, the possibility
of concluding a China-Japan FTA or a China-Japan-Korea FTA
became remote. The government chose the policy of ' befriending
distant states and inducing neighbors.' Particularly, the trend
towards individual countries focusing on their respective concerns
during discussions on FTAs was strengthened, and as the Doha
Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations became sluggish, the
Korean government decided to promote FTAs with as many
countries as possible. When its competitor countries concluded
FTAs with the countries to which Korea exported its products,
it was clear that Korea's access to markets of those countries
would narrow. Korea, whose dependency on trade was as much
as 70%, was worried about the possibility of its export markets
but in any case, the promotion of an FTA with the ASEAN was
thereafter decided on overnight.
An FTA with the ASEAN was not considered for some time
after the Roh Moo-hyun government took power, but the Korean
government considered a Korea-ASEAN FTA in response to the
abovementioned circumstances rather than a strategic decision
based on East Asian economic integration, given the fact that
China had fast-tracked its FTA with the ASEAN and even Japan
had shown its willingness to promote an FTA with the ASEAN.
In response, the Roh Moo-hyun government agreed to conduct
joint research on schemes to reinforce comprehensive economic
cooperation in the region by forming an expert group with ASEAN,
after which negotiations for a bilateral FTA between China and
ASEAN was near to a conclusion in 2004. The government could
have at least avoided the situation in which Korea was alienated
from East Asian regionalism due to its refusal to conclude an FTA
with the ASEAN, but the abrupt end of the negotiations had many
undesired side effects.8
The Northeast Asian Economic Hub Policy cannot be described
as successful under the government of President Roh Moo-hyun,
although it was the president's prime national administrative task.
President Roh aspired for the rise of Korea to become an economic
and transshipment hub in Northeast Asia and for it to be an integral
part of the global economy. After five years, the concept has
remained unclear. Even the Blue House cited it as the most
unsuccessful project of the national administration. (Chosunllbo
2008) As opposed to initial expectations, the Korea-Japan FTA
was discontinued after a year of negotiations and the relationship
between the two countries has worsened. Although joint research
on a China-Japan-Korea FTA and a FTA with China has been
conducted with the initiative of national policy research institutes,
these have not gone beyond the research stage. The Northeast
Asian Hub policy was virtually abolished in 2004. The core of
the trade policy was converted into the Korea-US FTA and
negotiations on the Korea-ASEAN FTA became the major pending
trade issue during the period 2006-2007.
Compared to President Kim's era, the position of Korea in East
Asia greatly weakened under President Roh. Although Korea
participated in the ASEAN+3 Summit Meetings and the East Asian
Summits (EAS), the nation has not played the lead role in discussions
on the mid-and long-term integration of the region's economy.
The relationships among member countries have also occasionally
deteriorated due to unreasonable remarks. MBN (2005) reported
that at the 1st EAS, where the heads of 17 East Asian countries9
gathered, President Roh said that a thorough reflection on Japan'
s aggressive military past is needed. At the time, the relationship
between Korea and Japan was expected to decline sharply due
to President Roh's continued remarks criticizing Japan. Moreover,
the Japanese government stirred up politically sensitive issues for
Korea. For example, the government of Abe Shinzo raised the
issue of editing Japanese history textbooks with intentional distortion
and brought other issues to the fore, such as the Dokdo territorial
dispute as well as other historical issues. The bilateral summit
talks and the China-Japan-Korea Summit were also cancelled during
the ASEAN+3 Summit, despite the fact that the China-Japan
Korea Summit used to be a convention at the ASEAN+3 meeting.
President Roh Moo-hyun attended the EAS and the ASEAN+3
Summit held in Cebu, in the Philippines in January 2007.10 However,
he did not attend the official luncheon and dinner. Although the
President was absent due to physical fatigue, it is very unusual
for political leaders to miss the luncheon and dinner in a diplomatic
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
EU EU
ASEAN ASEAN
GCC GCC
Source: Complied from information by Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
REFERENCES
Ahn, Choong Yong and Inkyo Cheong. 2007. A Search for Closer
Economic Relations in East Asia. The Japanese Economic
Review Vol. 58, No. 2. June.
Angkinand, Apanard Penny and Eric M.P. Chiu. 2008. Will Institutional
Reform Enhance Bilateral Trade Flows. Presented for the
conference at the 1st Taiwan-East Asia Conference on FTA
(Taipei, October 11-12).
Baldwin, R.E. 2003. The Spoke Trap: Hub and Spoke Bilateralism
in East Asia. Northeast Asian Study Series. Seoul: Korea
Institute for International Economic Policy
Chosunllbo. 2008. The Policy of Northeast Asia Hub to be the
Worst Failure. January 16.
DongAIlbo. 2007. President Roh, ASEAN+3 Absent from Summit
Dinner following Yesterday Luncheon. January 16.
DongAIlbo. 2008. [Editorial] Diplomacy of the Government of
President Lee, It Should Be Grand-designed and Systematic.
January 1.
East Asian Vision Group. 2001. Towards an East Asian Community.
Seoul: EAVG Secretariat
Kawai, Masahiro and Ganeshan Wignaraja. 2007. ASEAN+3 or
ASEAN+6: Which way forwards?. Discussion paper No. 77.
Tokyo: ADB Institute
Korea Policy Portal (www.korea.kr). The Beginning, Agony and
the remaining Problems. (Internet Search: Nov. 2007)
MBN. 2005. President Roh's Criticism against Japan. News Report.
December 15.
Maeil Business newspaper. 2002. [Pressmen 24 Hours] What on
earth is the National Affair Coordination Office doing?. Nov. 7.
Policy Briefing. 2008. The Participatory Government: 5 Years.
Seoul: Han's Media. (Korean)
SERI. 2004. ASEAN+3 Process and Economic Cooperation in East
Asia. Global Issue 9.
Urata, Shujiro. 2008. Institutionalization of Regional Economic
WG on drug
Meeting
- ABMI Focal
Group
- CMI Expert
Meeting
- ETWG
- ASEAN+3 SG
EPGG
AMAF+3
Science COST+3 1
Disaster ACDM+3 1
Mining ASOMM+3 1
- NEAT
Total 1 14 19 2 18 2 56
AFDM+3 ASEAN Plus Three Finance and Central Bank Deputies' Meeting
SOME+3 EGPP ASEAN Plus Three Senior Officials Meeting on Energy Policy Governing
Group
SOM-AMAF+3 ASEAN Senior Officials on Agriculture and Forestry Plus Three Meeting
SOMCA+3 ASEAN Plus Three Senior Officials Meeting on Culture and Arts
AMMSWD+3 ASEAN Plus Three Ministerial Meeting on Social Welfare and Development
ASOMSWD+3 ASEAN Plus Three Senior Officials Meeting on Social Welfare and Development
CMI Expert Meeting Working Group for Review for the Chiang Mai Initiative