I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Wednesday, 17 March 2021

SECTOR UPDATE OVERWEIGHT

Automobile – Indonesia (Maintained)
Sharp Increase In Sales Volume Post Luxury Tax Cut
One week post implementation of a luxury tax cut, sales volumes of affected models ASII PE BAND CHART (BEST 12M FORWARD)
of Toyota, Daihatsu, Honda have risen by 100%+, 40% and 60% mom respectively.  25.0

The government is also studying the impact of extending the tax reduction to  20.0

vehicles with engine size below 2,500cc. Since about 50% of cars sold in Indonesia  15.0

are below 2,500cc and 1,500cc, the regulation should bode well for 2021 volume  10.0
sales. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector, with ASII and UNTR as our top picks.  5.0

WHAT’S NEW  ‐
Mar‐16 Mar‐17 Mar‐18 Mar‐19 Mar‐20 Mar‐21

 Sharp increase in sales volume post luxury tax reduction on <1,500cc vehicle  ‐2stdev 8.8x  ‐1stdev 11.3x  Average 13.8x

category. In the first week of March, sales volume of <1,500cc cars saw a sharp mom  1stdev 16.3x  2stdev 18.8x  ASII Best PE

increase. Sales of Toyota Avanza, Sienta, Rush and Yaris rose by 95-155% mom in the Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
first week of March. Daihatsu Xenia, Terios, Luxio, GrandMax Mini rose 40% mom. UNTR PE BAND CHART (BEST 12M FORWARD)
Daihatsu Ayla, Sigra, Siron, GrandMax Pikap, GrandMax Blind Van rose 20% mom.  20.0
Honda products benefitted from the reduction in luxury tax, and rose 60% mom, while
Nissan products only rose 5%. Suzuki is in the midst of tallying its sales.  15.0

 The luxury tax reduction could be extended to cars up to 2,500cc with 70% local
 10.0

content. The luxury tax reduction could be extended to cars with engines up to 2,500cc;  5.0

however, the car will need to have 70% local content. Currently, the luxury tax for a  ‐
2,500cc domestically-made car is 20%. One could see a Rp80m reduction in Toyota Mar‐16 Mar‐17 Mar‐18 Mar‐19 Mar‐20 Mar‐21

Fortuner and Mitsubishi Pajero selling prices, and a Rp50-55m reduction in Kijang Inova  ‐2stdev 4.4x  ‐1stdev 7.7x  Average 11x

selling prices.  1stdev 14.2x  2stdev 17.5x  UNTR Best PE

Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

 Types of eligible cars with engine capacities of 1,500-2,500cc are: a) Toyota: Inova,
Fortuner, and Voxy b) Mitsubishi Pajero Sport Dakar, and Pajero Sport Exceed, c) Honda
CRV, HRV-Prestige and Odyssey Prestige, d) Mercedes C Class, E Class and some of
the S Class, e) BMW 330I, 530i, 730LI, X1 SDRIVE, and X3, and f) Hyundai H 1.
 49,202 units sold in February, down a mere 7.0% mom. Feb 21’s car unit sales came
in at 49,202 units, down 7.0% mom. This is not a low figure and is encouraging,
considering the 40-150% mom growth in the first week of Mar 21 and the potential
expansion of the luxury tax reduction to cars with 2,500cc engines. We are expecting a
full-year unit sales of 800,000, which could be achieved.
ACTION
 Maintain BUY on ASII with target price of Rp6,800. ASII’s share price has fallen from a
high of Rp6,925 to the current Rp5,550. It is now trading at an attractive below-average PE
with potential upside to sales volume coming from the favourable regulation. We also expect
the financial services division’s net income to rise alongside the increase in sales volume.
AALI should perform well with CPO price rising, and UNTR should do well with coal price
recovering. We expect a 50.7% yoy growth in ASII’s 2021F net income.
 Still positive on UNTR. We continue to be positive on UNTR on the back of: a) the rally in
coal price to over US$80/tonne could translate into higher demand for Komatsu units in
2021; b) a higher coal price in 2021 is unlikely to lead to a decline in overburden removal
volume, while there will be less pressure to give discounts, unlike the US$150m discount ANALYST(S)
given in 2020; c) new earnings contribution from its power plant; and d) UNTR is trading at Stevanus Juanda
below average historical 5-year PE. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp29,500. +6221 2993 3845
stevanusjuanda@uobkayhian.com
PEER COMPARISON
Price Target Potential Market 3M Avg --------- PE --------- --------- P/B --------- -------- ROE -------- Net
16-Mar-21 Price Upside Cap Turnover 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F Gearing
Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (Rp) (%) (US$m) (US$m) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
ASTRA INTERNATIONAL ASII BUY 5,550 6,800 22.5% 15,578 25.8 12.6 10.0 1.3 1.2 11.3 13.4 15.9
UNITED TRACTORS UNTR BUY 21,175 29,500 39.3% 5,476 9.8 7.9 6.2 1.2 1.1 15.4 17.4 (12.8)
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

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I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Wednesday, 17 March 2021

 With the luxury tax relaxation being reduced to cars below 1,500 cc and a planned extension
to cars with engines below 2,500cc, this should bode well for 2021 car sales volume as about
half of the cars sold in Indonesia fall within this category.
SALES OF DOMESTICALLY-MADE CARS YTD BELOW 1,500 CC SALES OF DOMESTICALLY-MADE CARS YTD 1,501– 2,500CC
Brand Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Brand Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Jan‐21 Feb‐21
Toyota    6,953    4,284 32.9% 33.7%
Honda    4,504    2,748 21.3% 21.6% Toyota       4,355       4,765 78.1% 79.7%
Daihatsu    2,785    2,237 13.2% 17.6% Mitsubishi          908          828 16.3% 13.9%
Mitsubishi    3,469    1,764 16.4% 13.9%
Suzuki    2,435    1,056 11.5% 8.3%
Honda          157          172 2.8% 2.9%
Wuling       808       534 3.8% 4.2% BMW            44          131 0.8% 2.2%
DSFK          46          50 0.2% 0.4%
Mercedes            93            61 1.7% 1.0%
Nissan       100          17 0.5% 0.1%
Volkwagen          28          16 0.1% 0.1% Hyundai ‐ HIM            16            20 0.3% 0.3%
Grand Total  21,128  12,706 100.0% 100.0% Grand Total       5,573       5,977 100.0% 100.0%
Total Domestic Car Sales  52,909  49,202
% of Domestic made car 
Total Domestic Car Sales    52,909    49,202
below 1500cc 39.9% 25.8% % of Domestic made car  10.5% 12.1%
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

 Most cars sold in Indonesia are multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) with an engine size below 1,500
cc. Pick-ups, low-cost green cars (LCGC) and cars with engine size below 2,500cc also
contribute a sizeable portion of volume sales.
YTD CAR SALES BY ENGINE SIZE YTD CAR SALES BY TYPES OF CARS
Engine Size Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Type of Car Jan‐21 Feb‐21 Jan‐21 Feb‐21
All CC        557    1,003 1.1% 2.0% 4X2 MPV  21,392  13,464 40.4% 27.4%
cc<1200    9,765  11,891 18.5% 24.2%
LCGC    9,765  11,891 18.5% 24.2%
CC<1500  21,544  13,692 40.7% 27.8%
CC 1501‐2500    6,253    7,421 11.8% 15.1% Pick Up    9,977    9,877 18.9% 20.1%
CC 1501‐3000        149        127 0.3% 0.3% 4x3 MPV    5,983    6,968 11.3% 14.2%
CC 2501‐3000          78        150 0.1% 0.3% Truck    4,511    4,904 8.5% 10.0%
CC > 3001          12          67 0.0% 0.1% Double Cabin       557    1,003 1.1% 2.0%
GVW < 5 Ton    9,977    9,877 18.9% 20.1%
Sedan       473       637 0.9% 1.3%
GVW > 24 Ton             ‐            1 0.0% 0.0%
GVW 10‐24 Ton        937    1,178 1.8% 2.4%
4X4       188       388 0.4% 0.8%
GVW 5‐10 tons    3,637    3,795 6.9% 7.7% Bus          63          70 0.1% 0.1%
Grand Total  52,909  49,202 100.0% 100.0% Grand Total  52,909  49,202 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

MONTHLY CAR SALES

Source: Gaikindo, ASII

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I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Wednesday, 17 March 2021

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