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Allen and Kaine Tied For Webb Senate Seat in Virginia
Allen and Kaine Tied For Webb Senate Seat in Virginia
Kaine and Allen are knotted at 47% apiece. Kaine has become slightly more popular
since November, from a 43-40 favorability margin to 46-38 now, while Allen has held
steady (40-41 versus 39-40 now). Yet Kaine has declined head-to-head, from a 50-44
lead over Allen previously. The reason is twofold: a neutralization of Kaine’s previous
party-unity advantage, where Allen takes more Democrats than Kaine does Republicans,
and a huge reversal with independents, from 49-43 in Kaine’s favor to 50-41 in Allen’s.
In other potential matchups, should Kaine not make a bid, Allen beats recently defeated
Rep. Rick Boucher, 47-42, and another 2010 House casualty, Tom Perriello, 48-41. In
both of those matchups, Allen unites the GOP, wins independents by double digits, and
benefits from Boucher’s and Perriello’s low profiles statewide, keeping 12-15% of
Democrats undecided. Boucher is an unknown to 60% of voters, and Perriello to 57%.
They are both disliked, 14-26 for Boucher and 20-22 for Perriello.
Right now, the three Democrats have leads of four to 14 points over another potential
GOP nominee, state Del. Bob Marshall. 72% have no opinion of Marshall, and those
who do break 8-20 against him. Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke (unknown to 82%, 4-14
favorable margin) falls by margins of eight to 16 points.
“It’s early but this definitely looks like it will be the marquee Senate race of the 2012
cycle, especially if Tim Kaine jumps in,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “George Allen’s status as a very well known but also very polarizing political
figure makes this nearly certain to be a closely contested race.”
Radtke has already announced her candidacy, and several other Republicans are mulling
bids. PPP will have numbers on the GOP nomination race later this week.
PPP surveyed 524 Virginia voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Favorable .............. 46% Not sure ................ 17% George Allen ................................................... 48%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Boucher Favorability Kaine Favorability
Favorable 14% 11% 31% 13% 8% 11% Favorable 46% 70% 73% 63% 19% 9%
Unfavorable 26% 25% 25% 26% 27% 28% Unfavorable 38% 15% 19% 18% 61% 74%
Not sure 60% 63% 44% 61% 65% 61% Not sure 17% 15% 8% 19% 19% 17%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Marshall Favorability Perriello Favorability
Favorable 8% 8% 6% 8% 8% 11% Favorable 20% 38% 33% 24% 9% 6%
Unfavorable 20% 26% 33% 22% 17% 6% Unfavorable 22% 13% 16% 15% 30% 37%
Not sure 72% 66% 62% 70% 76% 83% Not sure 57% 49% 51% 61% 61% 56%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Radtke Favorability Boucher/Allen
Favorable 4% 3% 2% 3% 5% 4% Rick Boucher 42% 84% 72% 55% 12% 4%
Unfavorable 14% 20% 22% 14% 11% 8% George Allen 47% 8% 20% 26% 78% 91%
Not sure 82% 77% 76% 82% 84% 88% Undecided 11% 8% 8% 19% 10% 4%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Kaine/Allen Perriello/Allen
Tim Kaine 47% 87% 76% 67% 15% 2% Tom Perriello 41% 87% 70% 52% 10% 5%
George Allen 47% 10% 19% 26% 80% 90% George Allen 48% 10% 20% 31% 79% 90%
Undecided 6% 3% 5% 7% 5% 8% Undecided 11% 3% 11% 17% 11% 5%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Boucher/Marshall Kaine/Marshall
Rick Boucher 40% 75% 70% 50% 11% 8% Tim Kaine 49% 90% 81% 68% 15% 6%
Bob Marshall 32% 11% 7% 14% 56% 73% Bob Marshall 35% 6% 10% 13% 60% 81%
Undecided 28% 14% 24% 36% 33% 19% Undecided 16% 4% 9% 18% 25% 13%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Perriello/Marshall Boucher/Radtke
Tom Perriello 39% 84% 62% 50% 12% 5% Rick Boucher 40% 75% 69% 50% 17% 5%
Bob Marshall 35% 7% 11% 15% 57% 81% Jam ie Radtke 29% 4% 8% 11% 47% 72%
Undecided 26% 9% 27% 35% 30% 14% Undecided 31% 21% 23% 39% 36% 22%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Kaine/Radtke Perriello/Radtke
Tim Kaine 49% 90% 80% 68% 16% 7% Tom Perriello 40% 86% 64% 53% 12% 5%
Jam ie Radtke 33% 4% 12% 12% 58% 78% Jam ie Radtke 32% 6% 6% 13% 55% 77%
Undecided 17% 5% 8% 21% 26% 15% Undecided 28% 8% 30% 34% 34% 18%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Allen Favorability Boucher Favorability
Favorable 39% 30% 47% Favorable 14% 12% 16%
Unfavorable 40% 41% 39% Unfavorable 26% 23% 29%
Not sure 21% 29% 14% Not sure 60% 64% 55%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Kaine Favorability Marshall Favorability
Favorable 46% 50% 41% Favorable 8% 8% 9%
Unfavorable 38% 29% 46% Unfavorable 20% 21% 19%
Not sure 17% 21% 12% Not sure 72% 71% 72%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Perriello Favorability Radtke Favorability
Favorable 20% 20% 20% Favorable 4% 3% 4%
Unfavorable 22% 21% 24% Unfavorable 14% 16% 13%
Not sure 57% 59% 56% Not sure 82% 82% 82%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Boucher/Allen Kaine/Allen
Rick Boucher 42% 48% 36% Tim Kaine 47% 52% 42%
George Allen 47% 41% 53% George Allen 47% 40% 53%
Undecided 11% 11% 12% Undecided 6% 7% 5%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Perriello/Allen Boucher/Marshall
Tom Perriello 41% 46% 36% Rick Boucher 40% 44% 35%
George Allen 48% 43% 54% Bob Marshall 32% 25% 40%
Undecided 11% 11% 10% Undecided 28% 31% 25%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Kaine/Marshall Perriello/Marshall
Tim Kaine 49% 55% 43% Tom Perriello 39% 43% 35%
Bob Marshall 35% 27% 42% Bob Marshall 35% 28% 42%
Undecided 16% 17% 14% Undecided 26% 29% 23%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Boucher/Radtke Kaine/Radtke
Rick Boucher 40% 44% 36% Tim Kaine 49% 55% 44%
Jam ie Radtke 29% 23% 35% Jam ie Radtke 33% 26% 41%
Undecided 31% 33% 29% Undecided 17% 19% 16%
Gender Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Wom an Man
Allen Favorability
Perriello/Radtke
Favorable 39% 16% 67% 36%
Tom Perriello 40% 44% 37% Unfavorable 40% 64% 12% 41%
Jam ie Radtke 32% 26% 38% Not sure 21% 20% 22% 22%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Boucher Favorability Kaine Favorability
Favorable 14% 16% 11% 15% Favorable 46% 76% 15% 42%
Unfavorable 26% 28% 23% 27% Unfavorable 38% 12% 65% 40%
Not sure 60% 56% 66% 57% Not sure 17% 12% 21% 18%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Marshall Favorability Perriello Favorability
Favorable 8% 8% 8% 9% Favorable 20% 36% 7% 14%
Unfavorable 20% 29% 12% 17% Unfavorable 22% 14% 31% 24%
Not sure 72% 63% 80% 74% Not sure 57% 51% 62% 61%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Radtke Favorability Boucher/Allen
Favorable 4% 3% 3% 4% Rick Boucher 42% 76% 6% 38%
Unfavorable 14% 18% 14% 10% George Allen 47% 9% 89% 48%
Not sure 82% 79% 83% 86% Undecided 11% 15% 5% 15%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Kaine/Allen Perriello/Allen
Tim Kaine 47% 86% 7% 41% Tom Perriello 41% 77% 5% 34%
George Allen 47% 9% 87% 50% George Allen 48% 11% 90% 49%
Undecided 6% 5% 5% 9% Undecided 11% 12% 4% 17%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Boucher/Marshall Kaine/Marshall
Rick Boucher 40% 71% 6% 36% Tim Kaine 49% 90% 8% 43%
Bob Marshall 32% 4% 67% 29% Bob Marshall 35% 4% 68% 36%
Undecided 28% 25% 26% 35% Undecided 16% 6% 24% 21%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Perriello/Marshall Boucher/Radtke
Tom Perriello 39% 76% 4% 30% Rick Boucher 40% 75% 7% 32%
Bob Marshall 35% 4% 71% 33% Jam ie Radtke 29% 3% 60% 26%
Undecided 26% 20% 25% 37% Undecided 31% 21% 33% 43%
Party Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Kaine/Radtke Perriello/Radtke
Tim Kaine 49% 89% 8% 44% Tom Perriello 40% 80% 3% 30%
Jam ie Radtke 33% 5% 67% 32% Jam ie Radtke 32% 4% 68% 26%
Undecided 17% 6% 25% 24% Undecided 28% 16% 29% 44%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Allen Favorability Boucher Favorability
Favorable 39% 45% 17% 38% Favorable 14% 17% 6% 11%
Unfavorable 40% 35% 58% 41% Unfavorable 26% 24% 36% 27%
Not sure 21% 20% 25% 22% Not sure 60% 60% 58% 62%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Kaine Favorability Marshall Favorability
Favorable 46% 37% 78% 46% Favorable 8% 7% 14% -
Unfavorable 38% 44% 14% 35% Unfavorable 20% 18% 28% 14%
Not sure 17% 19% 8% 19% Not sure 72% 74% 58% 86%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Perriello Favorability Radtke Favorability
Favorable 20% 18% 28% 19% Favorable 4% 5% - -
Unfavorable 22% 25% 14% 16% Unfavorable 14% 12% 25% 11%
Not sure 57% 57% 58% 65% Not sure 82% 84% 75% 89%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Boucher/Allen Kaine/Allen
Rick Boucher 42% 36% 67% 41% Tim Kaine 47% 37% 83% 54%
George Allen 47% 56% 14% 38% George Allen 47% 56% 14% 35%
Undecided 11% 9% 19% 22% Undecided 6% 7% 3% 11%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Perriello/Allen Boucher/Marshall
Tom Perriello 41% 32% 72% 43% Rick Boucher 40% 33% 64% 41%
George Allen 48% 58% 14% 38% Bob Marshall 32% 39% 8% 22%
Undecided 11% 10% 14% 19% Undecided 28% 28% 28% 38%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Kaine/Marshall Perriello/Marshall
Tim Kaine 49% 39% 89% 46% Tom Perriello 39% 31% 72% 35%
Bob Marshall 35% 43% 6% 27% Bob Marshall 35% 43% 6% 30%
Undecided 16% 18% 6% 27% Undecided 26% 27% 22% 35%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Boucher/Radtke Kaine/Radtke
Rick Boucher 40% 33% 69% 32% Tim Kaine 49% 39% 92% 41%
Jam ie Radtke 29% 35% 6% 22% Jam ie Radtke 33% 40% 8% 24%
Undecided 31% 32% 25% 46% Undecided 17% 21% - 35%
Race Age
African- 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base White Am erican Other Base 29 45 65 than 65
Perriello/Radtke Allen Favorability
Tom Perriello 40% 31% 78% 38% Favorable 39% 34% 28% 43% 44%
Jam ie Radtke 32% 39% 6% 24% Unfavorable 40% 47% 38% 40% 40%
Undecided 28% 30% 17% 38% Not sure 21% 19% 34% 17% 15%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Boucher Favorability Kaine Favorability
Favorable 14% 24% 11% 13% 16% Favorable 46% 55% 46% 44% 44%
Unfavorable 26% 38% 29% 26% 19% Unfavorable 38% 29% 32% 43% 38%
Not sure 60% 39% 59% 61% 65% Not sure 17% 16% 22% 13% 18%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Marshall Favorability Perriello Favorability
Favorable 8% 19% 9% 7% 5% Favorable 20% 26% 16% 21% 21%
Unfavorable 20% 32% 17% 19% 22% Unfavorable 22% 35% 22% 20% 23%
Not sure 72% 49% 75% 74% 73% Not sure 57% 39% 62% 59% 56%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Radtke Favorability Boucher/Allen
Favorable 4% 7% 4% 3% 2% Rick Boucher 42% 57% 40% 42% 37%
Unfavorable 14% 32% 13% 12% 14% George Allen 47% 38% 44% 47% 53%
Not sure 82% 61% 83% 85% 83% Undecided 11% 5% 15% 11% 10%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Kaine/Allen Perriello/Allen
Tim Kaine 47% 48% 50% 47% 43% Tom Perriello 41% 54% 43% 40% 34%
George Allen 47% 41% 44% 46% 53% George Allen 48% 39% 44% 50% 55%
Undecided 6% 11% 6% 7% 3% Undecided 11% 7% 13% 10% 11%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Boucher/Marshall Kaine/Marshall
Rick Boucher 40% 49% 40% 40% 34% Tim Kaine 49% 59% 48% 51% 44%
Bob Marshall 32% 31% 30% 34% 33% Bob Marshall 35% 31% 32% 35% 38%
Undecided 28% 20% 30% 26% 33% Undecided 16% 10% 19% 14% 17%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Perriello/Marshall Boucher/Radtke
Tom Perriello 39% 54% 36% 41% 34% Rick Boucher 40% 50% 42% 37% 40%
Bob Marshall 35% 35% 33% 35% 37% Jam ie Radtke 29% 31% 27% 30% 27%
Undecided 26% 12% 31% 24% 29% Undecided 31% 19% 31% 32% 34%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Kaine/Radtke Perriello/Radtke
Tim Kaine 49% 57% 48% 50% 47% Tom Perriello 40% 52% 40% 40% 37%
Jam ie Radtke 33% 32% 32% 36% 30% Jam ie Radtke 32% 31% 30% 33% 32%
Undecided 17% 11% 20% 14% 22% Undecided 28% 17% 30% 27% 30%