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Indigo Aviation
Indigo Aviation
Indigo
Prepared By: Sumit Todi , Tushar Bhati
Year 2017
http://proschoolonline.com
Email ID : mumbai@proschoolonline.com
Mumbai
Passenger
Passenger Revenue
ticket revenue 23,260 33,910
Ancillary
revenue 2,765 4,357
operating 11.89% 12.85%
revenue 30 68
0.13% 0.20%
Other Income 622 1107
2.67% 3.27%
Total Revenue 26,677 39,442
related
services
(b) Cargo 934 1508
services
(c) Tours and 1565 2451
packages – 1
In-flight sales 256 384
Advertisement 10 12
Commission
Products and – –
Services 2765 4357
Lease Payments
Operating Lease Expense
Finance Lease Interest Payment
Finance Lease Principal Payment 10% 10%
2010 2011
Aircraft
Cash andand engine rentals
non-cash 4,704 6,372
incentives -1,941 -2,274
Aircraft and engine rentals (net) 2,763 4,098
Finance lease charges (Interest) 88 300
Finance lease charges paid 81 302
Total Finance % 3% 9%
Total Lease Payment 4,872 6,975
Total Lease Payment ( Net of Incentive ) 2,931 4,701
Number of Planes 25 39
195 179
operating Lease
Capitalized Operating Lease 1 Year 1-5 Year
25603 54160
>5 Years 1 2 3 4 5
3446 25603 13540 13540 13540 13540
23171 11089 10035 9082 8219
>5 Years 1 2 3 4 5
11336 2993 2995 2995 2995 2995
12 24 36 48 60
6 7 8 9 10
689 689 689 689 689
379 343 310 281 254
6 7 8 9 10
2267 2267 2267 2267 2267
72 84 96 108 120
2023E
162984 Year 2018E 2019E
20% RPK (in million) 55020 65238
138,536 ASK (in million) 65500 78600
85.00% Passenger Load Factor (%) 84% 83%
3.32 RASK (Rs.) 3.02 3.07
3.90 Yield (Rs.) 3.60 3.70
Passenger Ticket Revenue 198026 241327
0%
3.5
540292
3
67536
Axis Title
12.50% 2.5
5838 19%
1.08% 2
16209
3.00% 3.00% 1.5
629,875
1
0.5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014
2023E
460
Year
Number of Planes
ASK Per Plane
Year
Passenger Load Factor (%)
Yield (Rs.)
RASK (Rs.)
10.50%
63161
Year
Ancillary
10.50% revenue
660 operating
revenue
Other Income
2020E 2021E 2022E
77342 91678 108656
94319 113183 135820
82% 81% 80%
3.12 3.16 3.20
3.80 3.90 4.00
293837 357472 434536
84.00%
82.00%
80.00%
78.00%
76.00%
74.00%
72.00%
13 2014 2015 2016 2017
354
58.17 45.94
56.49 45.85
Interglobe Aviation
Template
All Data in Millions INR, except per share
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Year 2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-A 2015-A
Tangible assets
Opening Balance 39,407
Addition 10,777
Depreciation -2,942
Adjustments 1,422
Closing Balance 48,664
Addition to Aircaft 4
Gross Amount of addition 9860
Cost per aircraft 2465
Intangible assets
Opening Balance 152
Addition 25
Amortisation -81
Adjustments 0
Closing Balance 96
6 6 6 6 6
9828 10140 10452 10764 11076 800
1638 1690 1742 1794 1846 26
30.76923
-9.9% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2%
Passenger
ticket revenue
Ancillary 33,910 49,873 82,667 99,240 122939
revenue
operating 4,357 5,680 9,253 11,553 15,725
revenue 68 93 111 373 590
Other Income 1107 1440 2371 3155 3946
Total Revenue 39,442 57,086 94,402 114,321 143,199
Aircraft fuel expenses 15,213 28,736 43,126 55,134 57,485
38.57% 50.34% 45.68% 48.23% 40.14%
Aircraft and engine rentals 6,372 10,634 17,150 20,310 23,076
16.16% 18.63% 18.17% 17.77% 16.11%
Incentives -2,274 -2,627 -3,588 -3,607 -3,553
-35.68% -24.71% -20.92% -17.76% -15.40%
Purchase of stock in trade 191 342 560 590 817
Change in inventories of 0.48% 0.60% 0.59% 0.52% 0.57%
stock in trade -1 -7 -19 7 -32
Employee benefits 2,930 5,119 6,905 9,211 11,887
7.43% 8.97% 7.31% 8.06% 8.30%
Finance costs 450 514 578 1,226 1,155
Depreciation and 1.14% 0.90% 0.61% 1.07% 0.81%
Amortization 629 665 856 2,260 3,022
1.59% 1.17% 0.91% 1.98% 2.11%
Other Expenses 8,784 12,961 18,961 24,472 30,877
22.27% 22.70% 20.09% 21.41% 21.56%
Total Expenses 32,294 56,337 84,529 109,602 124,734
58985.5
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
USD/INR E 63 65 67 69 71
Brent ($) E 67.5 75 75 75 75
USD/INR * Brent ($) 4252.5 4875 5025 5175 5325
Change (%) 3.58% 14.64% 3.08% 2.99% 2.90%
ATF Forecast Price 61095 70039 72194 74349 76504
ATF Price
Date (Rs) USD/INR Brent ($)
April 01, 2010 44361.8 44.76 82.63
May 01, 2010 46016.4 4% 44.52 4% 88.09 7%
June 01, 2010 42951.23 -7% 46.5125 -7% 73.08 -17%
July 01, 2010 45016.69 5% 46.74 5% 71.73 -2%
August 01, 2010 44697.15 -1% 46.19 -1% 81.93 14%
September 01, 2010 43596.4 -2% 46.92 -2% 75.53 -8%
October 01, 2010 44195.27 1% 44.77 1% 82.69 9%
November 01, 2010 45777 4% 44.35 4% 84.06 2%
December 01, 2010 47892.12 5% 45.87 5% 88.56 5%
January 01, 2011 50576.88 6% 44.76 6% 95.82 8%
February 01, 2011 53872.27 7% 45.85 7% 100.4 5%
March 01, 2011 58021.29 8% 45.18 8% 113.34 13%
April 01, 2011 62458.1 8% 44.44 8% 118.63 5%
May 01, 2011 63967.75 2% 44.29 2% 121.55 2%
June 01, 2011 59747.97 -7% 44.985 -7% 115.09 -5%
July 01, 2011 59498.08 0% 44.65 0% 113.55 -1%
August 01, 2011 61142.5 3% 44.04 3% 113.74 0%
September 01, 2011 59492 -3% 45.98 -3% 117.5 3%
October 01, 2011 61886.75 4% 49.48 4% 104.38 -11%
November 01, 2011 64490.42 4% 48.83 4% 112.22 8%
December 01, 2011 68172.65 6% 51.85 6% 110.16 -2%
January 01, 2012 66600.06 -2% 53.3 -2% 111.07 1%
February 01, 2012 66407.39 0% 49.59 0% 116.86 5%
March 01, 2012 68179.9 3% 49.075 3% 125.37 7%
April 01, 2012 71514.1 5% 50.61 5% 121.89 -3%
May 01, 2012 71028.24 -1% 52.65 -1% 111.89 -8%
June 01, 2012 69315.5 -2% 56.24 -2% 98.6 -12%
July 01, 2012 64652 -7% 55.5 -7% 99.23 1%
August 01, 2012 68561.29 6% 55.65 6% 113.52 14%
September 01, 2012 75263.34 10% 55.525 10% 114.86 1%
October 01, 2012 73406.57 -2% 52.995 -2% 114.32 0%
November 01, 2012 71455.93 -3% 53.805 -3% 108.61 -5%
December 01, 2012 70760.79 -1% 54.265 -1% 107.6 -1%
January 01, 2013 70473.55 0% 54.84 0% 112.97 5%
February 01, 2013 71872.72 2% 53.225 2% 118.29 5%
March 01, 2013 74502.55 4% 54.355 4% 108.64 -8%
April 01, 2013 70671.51 -5% 54.285 -5% 104.08 -4%
May 01, 2013 66995.1 -5% 53.805 -5% 103.59 0%
June 01, 2013 66745.17 0% 56.51 0% 101.5 -2%
July 01, 2013 70506.75 6% 59.385 6% 108.43 7%
August 01, 2013 74827.65 6% 60.41 6% 108.49 0%
September 01, 2013 80012.24 7% 65.75 7% 112.37 4%
October 01, 2013 82073.54 3% 62.6 3% 109.02 -3%
November 01, 2013 78427.93 -4% 61.51 -4% 105.76 -3%
December 01, 2013 79031.94 1% 62.35 1% 108.91 3%
January 01, 2014 81109.53 3% 61.8 3% 106.44 -2%
February 01, 2014 78878.31 -3% 62.7 -3% 110.18 4%
March 01, 2014 79712.86 1% 61.95 1% 108.27 -2%
April 01, 2014 76610.86 -4% 59.85 -4% 105.83 -2%
May 01, 2014 75796.83 -1% 60.22 -1% 108.19 2%
June 01, 2014 74401.78 -2% 59.27 -2% 109.21 1%
July 01, 2014 74794.07 1% 60.1 1% 107.65 -1%
August 01, 2014 74690.47 0% 60.75 0% 104.02 -3%
September 01, 2014 74248.5 -1% 60.5 -1% 99.53 -4%
October 01, 2014 72071.15 -3% 61.95 -3% 90.9 -9%
November 01, 2014 66899.8 -7% 61.5 -7% 83.2 -8%
December 01, 2014 64145 -4% 62.25 -4% 68 -18%
January 01, 2015 56316.75 -12% 63.17 -12% 49.43 -27%
February 01, 2015 50207.86 -11% 62 -11% 57 15%
March 01, 2015 54223 8% 61.9 8% 59.15 4%
April 01, 2015 53280.5 -2% 62.04 -2% 57.55 -3%
May 01, 2015 53589.18 1% 63.54 1% 64.93 13%
June 01, 2015 57433.28 7% 63.8 7% 60.36 -7%
July 01, 2015 55291.01 -4% 63.66 -4% 54.72 -9%
August 01, 2015 50204.43 -9% 64.01 -9% 47.54 -13%
September 01, 2015 44388.06 -12% 66.45 -12% 46.42 -2%
October 01, 2015 46716.48 5% 65.58 5% 51.66 11%
November 01, 2015 46493.61 0% 65.38 0% 46.09 -11%
December 01, 2015 46406.12 0% 66.52 0% 39.69 -14%
January 01, 2016 41922.23 -10% 66.18 -10% 33.57 -15%
February 01,2016 37121.79 -11% 67.77 -11% 32.76 -2%
March 01,2016 41439.27 12% 68.27 12% 37.61 15%
April 01,2016 43960.29 6% 66.3 6% 37.77 0%
May 01,2016 44362.04 1% 66.41 1% 44.39 18%
June 01,2016 48331.8 9% 67.24 9% 48.94 10%
July 01,2016 50958.7 5% 67.5 5% 45.7 -7%
August 01,2016 48882.44 -4% 66.8 -4% 40.45 -11%
September 01,2016 47050.97 -4% 66.85 -4% 46.72 16%
October 01,2016 48442.31 3% 66.54 3% 49.57 6%
November 01,2016 51901.2 7% 66.72 7% 43.06 -13%
December 01,2016 49998.03 -4% 68.52 -4% 52.31 21%
January 01, 2017 54213.92 8% 67.95 8% 55.9 7%
February 01,2017 55817.39 3% 67.62 3% 55.92 0%
March 01,2017 56104.9 1% 66.7275 1% 54.16 -3%
April 01, 2017 53242.5 -5% 64.805 -5% 53.08 -2%
May 01, 2017 53435.25 0% 64.185 0% 49.31 -7%
June 01, 2017 51442.25 -4% 64.485 -4% 50.41 2%
July 01, 2017 48646.25 -5% 64.685 -5% 49.13 -3%
August 01, 2017 50259.33 3% 64.105 3% 51.99 6%
September 01,2017 51639.75 3% 63.94 3% 52.69 1%
October 01,2017 54617.5 6% 65.62 6% 58.8 12%
November 01,2017 55746.25 2% 64.715 2% 60.65 3%
December 01,2017 58985.5 6% 64.595 6% 63.56 5%
2018 61095.2 4% 63 68 6%
2019 63280.3 7% 65 70
2020 65543.5 3% 67 70
2021 67887.7 3% 69 70
2022 70315.8 3% 71 70
23.2664473
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Interglobe Aviation
Template
All Data in Millions INR, except per share
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Year 2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-A 2015-A 2016-A
Equity and Liabilities
Share capital 344 344 344 344 344 3,604
Reserves and surplus 684 2090 3547 3863 3863 14,739
Shareholders’ funds 1027 2433 3890 4206 4207 18343
Additional Aircraft 16 11 11 17 13
24 29 11 34 41 49
Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents -84 2114 -1123 -334 1353
Deposits
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
2016-A 2017-A 2018-E 2019-E 2020-E 2021-E 2022-E
57 47
Terminal Value
Sum of PV of Cash Flows 214,275
Perpetual Value of Growth 3.00%
Present Value of Terminal Value 353,748
Book Value of Debt 50,779
Enterprise Value 702,262
Value of Non-Operating Assets 83,460
Equity Value 651,483
Value Per Share 1,698
1
COST OF EQUITY
s before interest and taxes 24,751 Rf 7.55%
interest expenses 3,308.00 Bottom Up Beta 0.72
coverage ratio 7.48 Rm 14.82%
ed Bond Rating Aa2/AA Rm - Rf 7.27%
y Risk Free Rate 7.55% Cost Of Equity 12.82%
ny Default Spread 1.00%
y Default Spread 1.95%
10.50%