Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program

for Planning Enhanced Weathering

 TÁMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0004
National Research Center for Development and Market Introduction of
Advanced Information and Communication Technologies

TÁMOP-4.2.3-12/1/KONV-2012-0026
TÁMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0004
Acknowledgement and dissemination of scientific results at the
University of Pannonia
National Research Center for Development and Market
Introduction of Advanced Information and
Communication Technologies

“There seems to be no law of physics or of ecology that would

prevent us from taking action to halt or reverse the growth of
atmospheric CO2 within a few years if this should become
necessary.”

— Freeman Dyson
(Dyson, 1977. Energy 2: 287)
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

The Challenge: Keeping DT < 2C
(IPCC, 2018)
 Achieving Deep Emissions Cuts
(Haszeldine et al. , 2018. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376: 20160447)

The targets of the Paris

Accord can only be met
with:
 Carbon capture and
storage (CCS)
 Carbon dioxide
removal (CDR)
 Negative emissions
technologies
(NETs)
“…global emissions need to reduce… to a net
balance of zero around 2050.”
 Technology Wedges for Carbon Management
(adapted from
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CCSRoadmap2009.pdf)

Business-as-usual trajectory
CO2 Emissions (Gt/y)

Carbon-neutral trajectory
 CDR/NET Options

www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/earth-sciences/pr-of-mcc-carbon-removal-from-
atmosphere-unavoidable-for-1-5-degree-target.html
 CDR/NET Options

Acceleration of reaction
of carbonic acid in rain
www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/earth-sciences/pr-of-mcc-carbon-removal-from-
with minerals
atmosphere-unavoidable-for-1-5-degree-target.html
 CAPE/PSE for NETs
(Tan et al., 2020. RCR 153: 104540 )

“Averting a climate crisis will require using NETs at the scale of

multiple gigatons per year, which makes it imperative to find ways
to effectively cope with the resource limitations on their use.”
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

Enhanced Weathering: A Scalable NET
 Summary of EW Process Chain

• Quarrying of alkaline rocks and minerals

1 • Collection of alkaline solid waste (e.g., slag)

• Grinding to powder (10 m)

2 • Transportation to application site

• Application to agricultural land ( 10 t/ha/y)

3 • Application to marginal land ( 50 t/ha/y)

• Reaction with H2O and CO2

4 • Carbon sequestered in bicarbonate ions in runoff water
 Enhanced Weathering: Key Facts (1)

 EW is based on the chemistry of CO2 sequestration through

accelerated weathering of silicates in the presence of rainwater
(Seifritz, W, 1990. Nature 345: 486)

 EW is a NET with low to moderate technological readiness level

(McLaren, 2012. PSEP 90: 489)

 EW scale is limited by land availability rather than mineral resources

(Renforth, 2012. IJGHGC 10: 229)

 Global EW sequestration potential is 3.66 Gt/y CO2, requiring 10 Mha

of land, 46 EJ/y of energy, and minimal water and nutrient footprint
(Smith et al., 2016. Nat. Clim. Change 6:42)
 Enhanced Weathering: Key Facts (2)

 Use of alkaline industrial waste can sequester 2.9–8.5 Gt/y CO2

(Renforth, 2019. Nat. Comm., 10: 1401)

 EW using rock powder on agricultural land in Brazil, China, India, and

the USA can sequester 0.5–2 Gt/y CO2 at a cost of US$ 80–180/t
(Beerling et al., 2012. Nature 583: 242)

 Weather (rainfall and ambient temperature) affects EW performance

(Strefler et al., 2018. ERL 13: 034010)

 Positive or negative changes in soil chemistry may occur due to EW

(Edwards et al., 2017. Bio. Lett., 13: 0715)

 Barriers include social and environmental issues (i.e., PM emissions)

(Renforth, 2012. IJGHGC 10: 229)
Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

 EW relies on accelerated
reaction of minerals with
CO2 and H2O.
 Large-scale deployment
of EW will be like a
supply chain
optimization problem.
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

Foundations of Fuzzy Optimization
(Zadeh, 1965. I&C 8: 338; Bellman & Zadeh, 1970. MS 17:B141)

 Fuzzy set theory was proposed

in 1965 to allow sets with partial
degrees of membership.
 The application to optimal
decision-making was proposed
in 1970.
Fuzzy Mathematical Programming
(Zimmermann, 1978. FSS 1:45)

 “Symmetric” formulation of
fuzzy mathematical
programming was proposed in
1978.
 Fuzzy objectives are
mathematically
indistinguishable from fuzzy
constraints.
 Max-min aggregation was
proposed as the
computationally efficient
operational interpretation of
“confluence.”
 Generic Mathematical Program (MP)

Any optimization problem can be stated in the following form:

min f(x, y) (Objective function)

subject to:
g(x, y) ≤ 0 (Inequality constraints)
h(x, y) = 0 (Equality constraints)
x  Rn (Continuous variables)
y  Im (Integer variables)

The specific algebraic form of the functions f, g and h depends

on the problem.
Linear Fuzzy Objectives/Constraints

 Fuzzy objective functions or

inequality constraints can be
represented as piecewise linear
“ramp-type” membership
functions.
 Direction depends on the
nature of the quantity.
Linear Fuzzy Objectives/Constraints

 Fuzzy equality constraints can

be represented by back-to-back
linear “ramp-type” membership
functions.
 Configuration may be
equivalent to triangular or
trapezoidal fuzzy constraints.
 Generic Symmetric Fuzzy MP

Any optimization problem can be stated in the following form:

max l (maximize aggregate degree of membership)

subject to:
 (x, y)  l (aggregate = minimum)
x  Rn
y  Im
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Sources Sinks

Problem Statement:

 Given available sources (rock crushing sites) and sinks (application

sites), the objective is to determine the optimal network which will
minimize the carbon footprint of the system
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters
 Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to:
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application
rate
Pi operating life of source
Si available crushed rock

Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters Minimize Carbon
 Footprint
Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to:
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application
rate
Pi operating life of source
Si available crushed rock

Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters
 Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to: Source balance
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application
rate
Pi operating life of source
Si available crushed rock

Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters
 Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to:
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application Sink balance
rate
Pi operating life of source
Si available crushed rock

Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters
 Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to:
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application
rate
Total application
Pi operating life of source limit
Si available crushed rock

Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Nomenclature
Parameters
 Sequestration factor
ij carbon footprint per unit of
Subject to:
crushed rock
Cj max. cumulative amount
Dj maximum annual application
rate
Pi operating life of source
Si available crushed rock
Non-negativity
constraints
Decision Variables
rij amount of rock from source i
to sink j
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Limiting Data for Sources and Sinks

 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

Carbon Sequestered =
35 kt CO2

In kt/y D-1 D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 Total

S-1 0.16 0.0 0.80 0.04 0.0 1.00

S-2 0.0 0.80 0.0 0.28 0.92 2.00
S-3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.28 2.22 2.50
Application 0.16 0.80 0.80 0.60 3.14
rate
 Linear Program (LP) for EW Network
(Tan and Aviso, 2019. RinENG 3, 100028)

 Carbon emissions associated from rock crushing, transport and

application are accounted for
 Carbon sequestration resulting from rock application is considered
 Application rate limits are maximized to achieve highest amount of
sequestered carbon.
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network
Sources Sinks

Problem Statement:

• Given available sources (rock crushing sites) and sinks (application

sites), fuzzy constraints for application rate and carbon sequestration
• The objective is to determine the optimal network which will
maximize over-all degree of satisfaction
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

Subject to:

Topological constraints:
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network
Maximize degree
of satisfaction

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣
Carbon footprint for
mining, crushing and Topological constraints:
application

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣
Fuzzy application limit

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

Fuzzy limit on carbon 𝐢𝐣

sequestration
𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

Activation of link

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

Flowrate capacity
𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 limits

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:

𝐢𝐣
𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐢𝐣

𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔
Subject to: 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣 𝐢𝐣

Topological constraints:
Limitations on
𝐢𝐣 number of
𝐣 established links

𝐢𝐣
Link Restrictions

𝐢𝐣
Necessary links
𝐔 𝐔 𝐋
𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐣 𝐢𝐣

𝐋 𝐔 𝐋
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network
Solution if no topological constraints (l = 0.7156, CS = 23.86 kt CO2)

In kt/y D-1 D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 Total

S-1 0.0 0.0 0.6637 0.2565 0.0798 1.0000

S-2 0.0 0.0487 0.0241 0.0 0.0 0.0728
S-3 0.1281 0.5009 0.0975 0.0 1.7735 2.5000
Application 0.1281 0.5496 0.7853 0.2565 1.8533
rate

Solution with topological constraints (l = 0.7091, CS = 23.63 kt CO2)

In kt/y D-1 D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 Total

S-1 0.0 0.0 0.7402 0.2598 0.0 1.0000

S-2 0.1307 0.0 0.0472 0.0 0.0 0.1779
S-3 0.0 0.5333 0.0 0.0 1.8738 2.4071
Application 0.1307 0.5333 0.7874 0.2598 1.8738
rate
 Fuzzy Mixed Integer Linear Program (LP) for
EW Network

 Fuzzy constraints have been integrated to account for amount of

carbon sequestered and application rate
 Carbon emissions resulting from rock crushing, transport and
application have been integrated
 Transport emissions were dependent on distance and flowrate
between source and sink
 Topological constraints have been included in the model
 Outline of Presentation

 Global energy/climate nexus

 Enhanced weathering (EW)

 Fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) for EW networks

 Case Study 1

 Case Study 2

 Conclusions and further research prospects

 Current Research Issues
 Techno-economic uncertainties
 Unintended consequences and ripple effects
 Natural resource limitations
 Integration with other carbon management strategies
 Social acceptability
 Legal and regulatory framework
 Who pays for CDR/NETs?
 Conclusions
 An FMILP has been developed for optimal planning of EW networks.
 The model has been demonstrated with an illustrative case study.
 Current and future research will focus on:
 Co-integration of multiple NETs
 Co-integration of NETs with other carbon management techniques
 Alternative model formulations (e.g., robust, game theoretic)
 Hybrid methods (e.g., P-graph, artificial intelligence)