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Week 1 - Capital Budgeting
Week 1 - Capital Budgeting
Week 1 - Capital Budgeting
The required and expected rates of return are *Dividend per share = (Last dividend per share) X
equal if the market is in equilibrium (1+growth rate)
The WACC computed as marginal cost of The most recent or current market price per
capital for any projected capital expansion (in share (“as of” price) is also known as the close
excess of given budget, where retained of trading
earnings are already exhausted) is greater than
the WACC initially computed based on given WEEK 3 – RISK AND RATES OF RETURN
budget
Risk – chance that some unfavorable event will
Capital structure is based on market value of occur
securities, not book value Investors like returns and dislike risk
To entice investors to take on more risk,
Capital structure of debt securities does not higher expected returns should be provided
include short-term or spontaneous liabilities (fundamental trade-off between risk and
return)
Factors that affect WACC: The slope of the risk-return line (on the part
1. Factors the firm can control of the investor) and the slope of the cost of
Change in capital structure capital line (on the part of the issuing
Change in dividend payout ratio corporation) is steeper when more risk
Alteration of capital budget decision rules to averse, and flatter when comfortable
accept projects with more or less risk than bearing risk
projects previously undertaken If the project’s return exceeds the cost of
2. Factors the firm cannot control capital, it is a good investment, and if does
Interest rates in the economy not, it is a bad investment
General level of stock prices A stock’s risk can be considered on a stand-
Tax rates alone or single-stock basis, or in a portfolio
context
COST OF EQUITY (bond-yield-plus-risk-premium
approach): Stand-alone risk – risk an investor would face if
Cost of equity = (Bond yield or return on bonds) + only one asset is held
(Risk premium) No investment should be undertaken unless
the expected rate of return is high enough to
If there is equal confidence in all approaches, compensate for the perceived risk
get the average of their costs of capital
Statistical measures of stand-alone risk:
TERMINAL VALUE: 1. Probability distribution
Terminal value = (Equilibrium market price) X 2. Expected rate of return (“r hat”)
(1+required rate of return) 3. Historical or past realized rate of return (“r bar”)
4. Standard deviation (sigma, σ)
Dividend payout ratio – ratio of dividend per share 5. Coefficient of variation (CV)
to earnings per share (percentage or portion of
earnings per share paid out as dividends) Probability distribution – a listing of possible
outcomes or events with a probability (chance of
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO: occurrence) assigned to each outcome
The tighter the probability distribution of Coefficient of variation – standardized measure of
expected future returns, the smaller the risk the risk per unit of return; provides a more
of a given investment meaningful risk measure when the expected
returns on two alternatives are not the same
Expected rate of return (“r hat”) – rate of return
expected to be realized from an investment; COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION:
weighted average of probability distribution of Coefficient of variation = (Standard deviation) /
possible results (in a portfolio) (Expected return)
If investors (on average) think a stock’s
expected return is too low to compensate Risk aversion
for its risk, they will start selling it, driving Risk-averse investors dislike risk and
down its price, and boosting its expected require higher rates of return as an
return; and vice versa inducement to buy riskier securities
The stock will be in equilibrium, with neither Other things held constant, the higher a
buying nor selling pressure, when its security’s risk, the higher its required return
expected return is exactly sufficient to If this situation does not hold, prices will
compensate for its risk change to bring about the required condition
Historical or past realized rate of return (“r bar”) – Market risk premium – difference between
return that was actually earned during some past expected rate of return on a given risky asset and
period that on a less risky asset
The actual return usually turns out to be It is the additional return over the risk-free
different from the expected return, except rate needed to compensate investors for
for riskless assets assuming an average amount of risk
In a market dominated by risk-averse
Standard deviation (sigma, σ) – statistical measure investors, riskier securities compared to less
of the variability of a set of observations; a measure risky securities must have higher expected
of how far the actual return is likely to deviate from returns as estimated by the marginal
the expected return investor
If this situation does not exist, buying and
STANDARD DEVIATION: selling will occur until it does exist
Standard deviation = √Squared sigma*
Risk in a portfolio context – a number of stocks are
*Squared sigma: combined, and their consolidated cash flows are
Multiply (a) probability of each demand occurring, analyzed
by (b) rate of return if each demand occurs, to get
(c) stock’s expected return for each demand Expected portfolio returns
The risk and return on an individual stock
Add all expected returns of each demand in (c) to should be analyzed in terms of how the
get total expected return of stock [sum of (c)] security affects the risk and return of the
portfolio in which it is held
Get difference between rate of return of each The expected return on a portfolio is the
demand in (b) and total expected return [sum of (c)] weighted average of the expected returns
to get (d) deviation of each demand (not weighted average of the standard
deviation) on its individual stocks
Square deviation of each demand in (d) to get (e)
squared deviation of each demand Market portfolio – a portfolio consisting of all stocks
Multiply probability of each demand occurring in (a) Portfolio risk – generally smaller than the average
by squared deviation of each demand in (e) to get of the stocks’ standard deviations because
(f) squared sigma of each demand diversification lowers the portfolio’s risk (portfolio
risk declines as the number of stocks in a portfolio
Add all squared sigmas in (f) to get total squared increases, but at a decreasing rate)
sigma [sum of (f)]
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) – based on the
proposition that any stock’s required rate of return
is equal to the risk-free rate of return plus risk A greater beta coefficient means there is
premium that reflects only the risk remaining after greater risk
diversification An average stock’s beta is equal to 1.0
(beta of overall stock market)
Components of a stock’s risk: The consolidated beta coefficient of the
1. Diversifiable or company-specific or portfolio is determined by multiplying the
unsystematic risk fractional parts of the investments by their
It is the part of a security’s risk associated respective beta coefficients, then adding
with random events unique to the firm them all together
It can be diversified away or eliminated by
proper diversification (“bad” events will be Relevant risk
offset by “good” events) The risk that remains once a stock is in a
It is of little concern to diversified investors diversified portfolio, is its contribution to the
2. Market or non-diversifiable or systematic or portfolio’s market risk
beta risk It is measured by the extent to which the
It reflects the risk of a general stock market stock moves up or down with the market
decline caused by macro factors
It is the risk that remains in a portfolio after Correlation – tendency of two variables to move
diversification has eliminated all company- together
specific risk When stocks are perfectly positively
It cannot be eliminated by diversification correlated, diversification is completely
It does not concern investors useless for reducing risk; when stocks are
perfectly negatively correlated, all risk can
Only market risk is relevant to rational investors be diversified away
because diversifiable risk can and will be The returns on two perfectly positively
eliminated correlated stocks with the same expected
returns would move up and down together,
Security market line (SML) equation – equation that and a portfolio consisting of these two
shows the relationship between risk as measured stocks would be exactly as risky as the
by beta and the required rates of return on individual stocks
individual securities
Correlation coefficient – a measure of the degree of
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (CAPM or SML relationship between two variables
equation): Perfect positive correlation is p = +1.0
Required rate of return = (Risk-free rate) + [(Risk Perfect negative correlation is p = -1.0
premium)* X (Beta coefficient b)] No correlation or independent is p = 0
Inventory conversion period (ICP) – average time Payables deferral period = (365) / (Payables
required to convert raw materials into finished turnover)*
goods, and then sell them (in the case of a
manufacturing concern) *Payables turnover = (Net credit purchases) /
(Average trade payables)
INVENTORY CONVERSION PERIOD:
Inventory conversion period = (Average inventory) / In payables deferral period, the assumption is
(Cost of goods sold per day) that if inventory did not change (beginning and
ending balances are the same), cost of goods
Inventory conversion period = (365) / (Inventory sold is equal to purchases
turnover)*
Average trade payables include accounts
*Inventory turnover = (Cost of goods sold) / payable and trade notes payable
(Average inventory)
If notes payable is silent on whether it is trade
Average collection period (ACP) or days sales or nontrade, do not include it as part of trade
outstanding (DSO) or average days in receivables payables because, they are nontrade in general
– average length of time required to convert the
firm’s receivables into cash, that is, to collect cash Net credit purchases is computed by deducting
following a sale on account purchase discounts, returns, and allowances
from gross purchases
AVERAGE COLLECTION PERIOD:
Average collection period = (Average trade If purchases is silent on whether it is for cash or
receivables) / (Net credit sales per day) on credit, it is assumed that all purchases are
on credit
Average collection period = (365) / (Receivables
turnover)* Techniques used to optimize demand deposit
holdings (cash management):
*Receivables turnover = (Net credit sales) / 1. Hold marketable securities rather than demand
(Average trade receivables) deposits to provide liquidity
2. Borrow on short notice
Average trade receivables include accounts 3. Forecast payments and receipts better (through
receivable and trade notes receivable cash budgets)
4. Speed up payments (through a lockbox system)
If notes receivable is silent on whether it is trade Lockbox is a post office box operated by a
or nontrade, do not include it as part of trade bank or any collection agency to which
receivables because, in general, they are payments are sent; it is used to speed up
nontrade effective receipt of cash
5. Use credit cards, debit cards, wire transfers,
Net credit sales is computed by deducting sales and direct deposits
discounts, returns, and allowances from gross 6. Synchronize cash flows
sales
Variables of credit policy (accounts receivable
If sales is silent on whether it is for cash or on management):
credit, it is assumed that all sales are on credit 1. Credit period – length of time customers have to
pay for purchases
Payables deferral period (PDP) – average length of 2. Discounts – price reductions given for early
time between the purchase of materials and labor payment
on account, and the payment of cash for them (in 3. Credit standards – financial strength customers
the case of a manufacturing concern) must exhibit to qualify for credit
4. Collection policy – degree of toughness in supplier within the discount period, and cash
enforcing credit terms funds for other projects are financed by the
bank loan at a lower rate
INVESTMENT IN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE:
Accounts receivable = (Sales per day) X (Length of Firms should always use the free component,
collection period or days sales outstanding) but they should use the costly component if
they cannot obtain funds at a lower cost from
Accounts payable another source
When a firm buys inventory on credit, its WEEK 7 – CASH, RECEIVABLES AND
suppliers, in effect, lend it the money used INVENTORY MANAGEMENT
to finance the inventory
The firm could have borrowed from its bank Cash management
or sold stock to obtain the money, but it It involves the maintenance of the
received the funds from its suppliers appropriate levels of cash and investment in
These loans are “accounts payable”, and marketable securities to meet the firm’s
they are typically “free” because they do not cash requirements and to maximize income
bear interest on idle funds
An objective is to invest excess cash for a
Trade credit return while retaining sufficient liquidity to
It is furnished by a firm’s suppliers satisfy future needs
It is often the largest source of short-term Another objective is to provide the cash
credit, especially for small firms balance required to meet the firm’s liquidity
It is spontaneous, easy to get, but its cost requirements at the lowest possible cost of
maintaining liquidity
(implicit cost) can be high
Reasons for holding cash:
Types of trade credit:
1. Transaction purposes – to conduct ordinary
1. Free
transactions
It is the credit received during the discount
2. Compensating balance requirements – certain
period
amount of cash that a firm must leave in its
It is obtained without a cost, and it consists checking account at all times as part of a loan
of all trade credit that is available without agreement
giving up discounts 3. Precautionary reserves – to handle unexpected
2. Costly problems or contingencies due to the uncertain
It is the credit taken in excess of free trade pattern of cash inflows and outflows
credit, whose cost is equal to the discount Cost of maintaining liquidity – income
lost foregone on cash balance; giving up
It is any trade credit over and above the free earning a higher income when cash is
trade credit maintained instead of invested
4. Potential investment opportunities – in
ANNUAL NOMINAL COST (ANC) OF TRADE anticipation of a future investment opportunity,
CREDIT: such as a major capital expenditure project
Nominal annual cost of trade credit = (Periodic 5. Speculation – to take advantage of possible
rate)* X (Periods per year)** changes in prices of materials, equipment, and
securities, as well as changes in currency
*Periodic rate = (Discount rate) / (1-discount rate) exchange rates
**Periods per year = (365) / [(Number of days credit Float – difference between the bank balance for a
is outstanding) – (Discount period)] firm’s account and the balance that the firm shows
on its own books (expressed in peso amounts)
EFFECTIVE COST OF TRADE CREDIT:
Effective cost of trade credit = (1+periodic rate)n – 1 Aspects of float:
1. The time it takes a company to process its
Firms should avail of the discount if the cost of checks internally
bank loan is lower than the cost of additional 2. The time consumed in clearing the check
trade credit, thus, cash payment is made to the through the banking system
Types of float: To compute for the average cash balance,
1. Negative float (availability or collection float) – deduct the optimal cash balance by 2
book balance exceeds bank balance, which
means that there is more cash tied up in the To compute for the net benefit or loss of having
collection cycle, and it earns a 0% rate of return an improvement or change in cash
Mail float – mailed by customer, but not yet management, deduct cost from benefit
received by the seller
Processing float – received by seller, but not Receivables management
yet deposited It is the process of ensuring that customers
Clearing float – deposited, but not yet pay their dues on time
cleared It helps businesses prevent themselves
2. Positive float (disbursement or payment float) – from running out of working capital at any
bank balance exceeds book balance (e.g. point of time
checks written or issued by firm, but not yet It prevents overdue payments or non-
cleared) payments of pending amounts of customers
The main objective is to minimize day sales
Good cash management dictates that negative outstanding (DSO) and processing costs
float must be minimized, if not eliminated; while maintaining good customer relations
management should increase positive float
DAY SALES OUTSTANDING (DSO):
To compute for the net float, deduct negative Day sales outstanding = (365) / (Receivables
float from positive float turnover)
REORDER POINT:
Reorder point = (Lead time usage)* + (Safety stock)
WEEK 8 – FINANCIAL PLANNING AND dividends generate more retained earnings;
FORECASTING thus, there is less external financing
Every peso that management chooses to retain DIVIDEND PER SHARE (DPS):
is a peso that shareholders could have received Dividend per share = (Dividends) / (Number of
and invested elsewhere, thus, managers should shares of common stock outstanding)
retain earnings if and only if they can invest the
money within the firm, and earn more than Stock repurchase – transaction in which a firm buys
stockholders can earn outside the firm back shares of its own stock, thereby decreasing
shares outstanding, increasing EPS, and often,
High growth companies with many good increasing stock price
projects or investment opportunities tend to
retain a high percentage of their earnings, EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS):
whereas mature companies with a great deal of Current EPS = (Net income) / (Number of shares of
cash but limited investment opportunities tend common stock outstanding)
to have generous cash distribution policies
EPS after stock repurchase = (Net income) /
Optimal dividend policy – strikes a balance (Number of shares of common stock outstanding
between current dividends and future growth, and after stock repurchase)
maximizes the firm’s stock price
PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO:
Residual dividend model – dividend paid is set Current price-earnings ratio = (Market price per
equal to net income minus the amount of retained share) / (Current EPS)
earnings necessary to finance the firm’s optimal
capital budget
Price-earnings ratio after stock repurchase =
(Market price per share) / (EPS after stock
repurchase)