The World Market For Fresh Food

THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD
February 2021
INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
TOP FIVE TRENDS SHAPING THE INDUSTRY
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION
Scope
▪ This report analyses the fresh food (FRF) industry, which includes the categories Disclaimer
below. Much of the information in this briefing
is of a statistical nature and, while
▪ Total sales volumes include sales through retail, and to foodservice and every attempt has been made to
ensure accuracy and reliability,
institutions. Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
▪ All historic and forecast market size volumes are expressed in tonnes. All market errors.
size values expressed are in US dollars at constant 2020 prices using a fixed Figures in tables and analyses are
exchange rate; inflationary effects are excluded. 2020 figures are based on part- calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
year estimates. briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader discretion
Eggs – 62 million tonnes is advised.
Fish & Seafood – 102 million tonnes

This report is a global overview of
Meat – 224 million tonnes the fresh food industry, examining
and comparing the performance of
fresh food categories across regions
Fresh Food Total Starchy Roots – 258 million tonnes and markets. It explores 5-year
Volume: forecasts for each category and
1,960 million Pulses – 51 million tonnes identifies five key trends driving
major developments, including in-
tonnes depth analysis of the impact of the
Nuts – 35 million tonnes Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on
the fresh food industry worldwide.
Fruits – 480 million tonnes
Vegetables – 656 million tonnes
Sugar & Sweeteners – 92 million tonnes
© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 3

INTRODUCTION
Examining five trends shaping fresh food

Forecast
Trend Expected long-term implications
significance
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated to consumers that eating healthily really is a
Heeding
matter of supreme importance; those with poor health who contracted the virus
healthy
were more likely to suffer negative outcomes. While vaccinations offer hope, a
eating’s
psychological legacy of the pandemic will be that many consumers continue to look
importance
to food to ensure health for the next “it will never happen” health crisis.
Restrictions on consumer movements (eg lockdowns, social distancing restrictions)
meant eating occasions shifted into the home and cooking increased, with a positive
Rediscovering
impact on fresh food sales. While such restrictions may end if vaccinations succeed,
the kitchen
the economic impact of the pandemic will likely have a longer-lasting impact here –
less disposable income means less eating out.
COVID-19 accelerated (already growing) e-commerce grocery sales, as consumers’
ability to visit stores became limited and, in some cases, curtailed. Alongside greater
Going online use of modern grocery retailers’ facilities and third party delivery services, direct-to-
consumer and subscription models also grew, especially as suppliers pivoted once
their sales to foodservice were reduced as restrictions hit home.
Considering Plant-based alternatives received a boost as the pandemic highlighted human
animals in the reliance on animal protein (as the virus’s origins became known). Closures of meat
food chain processing plants through COVID-19 infections reinforced this.
Motivations behind looking for local grew during the pandemic, with considerations
Looking for around food security also coming into play. Consumers saw vulnerabilities in supply
local chains and seeking local became a way of ensuring that food would be there, while
also meeting any demand for comfort, nostalgia and supporting the local economy.

INTRODUCTION
COVID-19: impact on fresh food
Massive shift in meal Recession pressures

Online accelerates
occasions premiumisation
▪ The pandemic brought lockdown ▪ Premiumisation has been a key ▪ The online channel, already
measures across the world, driver of food value sales, growing significantly, received a
forcing consumers into homes especially in developed tremendous boost from the
for work (and leisure) and the countries. impact of COVID-19, as
closure of foodservice and ▪ Around the world, COVID-19 consumers sought to comply
institutions that served food (eg forced greater falls in GDP with restrictions on movements,
schools). growth in 2020 even than in social distancing and isolation
▪ Consequently, retail sales of fresh 2008/2009. The pandemic- regulations.
food (alongside packaged food) caused recession (as businesses ▪ For fresh food this meant that, in
surged; food that was previously around the world were forced to some countries, consumers with
consumed outside the home now close and governments a historical reluctance to go
had to be made up for with food committed to massive stimulus online for purchases now did so.
bought for and eaten in the programmes) has created higher ▪ Retailers across the world have
home. unemployment and lower massively increased investment,
▪ Where foodservice restrictions average disposable income. betting that once online’s
have eased, things are not ▪ As such, expensive (premium) convenience has been
necessarily “back to normal” – variants in food have come under experienced consumers will not
restrictions on opening times pressure. That said, those linked go back to the old channel split.
and the number of patrons to health positioning – such as In the US, for example, in Q2
allowed have ensured that the organic – have benefited as this 2020 (during the “first wave” of
boost to retail sales continues. is, after all, a health crisis. the virus) Amazon increased
delivery capacity by 160%.

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Total sales volume turns negative thanks to pandemic-driven restrictions
▪ Fresh food sales grew in each year

across the historic period, until the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
resulted in negative growth in 2020.
▪ While retail sales were boosted (as
consumers were forced to eat at
home to a greater degree – and to
purchase more food in order to do
so) this did not offset the
tremendous blow to sales of fresh
food to foodservice/institutional
operations, with many across the
world forced to close entirely for
some time or at least operate under
restrictions.
▪ Year-on-year sales growth will
return in 2021 (as against such a
sharp drop in 2020) and will remain
positive across the forecast period;
the year 2020 has hammered home
the importance of health from food
to many consumers worldwide,
benefiting fresh food.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Fruit and vegetables continue to dominate global consumption

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
APAC and MEA most dynamic; North America to retain its sweet tooth
▪ The Asia Pacific

region continues to
account for a huge
proportion of sales,
at approximately
two thirds of the
global total.
▪ Key factors include
the cultural (the
tradition of cooking
fresh vegetables),
the economic (the
price compared to
packaged food) and,
most importantly,
the sheer size of the
population.
▪ The Middle East and
Africa is also a
dynamically growing region, albeit with much smaller sales. Protein sources fish and seafood, pulses and meat
are forecast to grow at CAGRs ahead of those for any category in America or Europe. Worth noting for those
regions is the forecast performance of sugar and sweeteners; negative for Latin America and Eastern Europe,
unimpressive for Western Europe, but still set to grow significantly in North America.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Vegetables and fruit sales growth ahead
▪ The global pandemic has not altered

the fundamental mix of sales
worldwide; vegetables lead, followed
by fruits, starchy roots, and meat.
Vegetables account for one third
(33.5% in 2020) of fresh food sales
worldwide, and forecast growth
comes most strongly from the two
regions growing most significantly
overall – Asia Pacific and the Middle
East and Africa.
▪ These are also the twin powers
behind forecast fruit and meat
growth; with Asia in particular seeing
meat consumption as a source of
health and indicator of prosperity
(although the latter to a decreasing
degree as being able to afford to
purchase becomes more normalised).
▪ Beyond these major categories, it is
the smallest – nuts – that is forecast to
grow fastest in the 2020-2025 period,
at a 3.6% CAGR globally.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Population growth and regulatory moves power top growth markets
▪ India and China remain – by some

distance – the top markets for forecast
growth. These two population-powered
behemoths are both forecast to be home
to approximately 1.5 billion people
(each) by 2025.
▪ India’s population growing faster than
China’s, coupled with Indian consumers’
continued appreciation of fresh food for
health (even as urbanisation grows),
support the highest CAGR for fresh food
across the world, despite late 2020
seeing farmers strike over reforms that
will loosen the country’s rules around
pricing, storage and the sale of farm
produce.
▪ Elsewhere, forecast growth in Brazil
and Mexico is notable, as these
countries are at the forefront of efforts
to reduce processed food consumption
(Brazil, with its NOVA food classification
system) and obesity rates via
food/nutrition labelling (Mexico).

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Pandemic reinforces larger stores’ strengths
▪ Hypermarkets/supermarkets is the most

important channel worldwide – and is
strongly dominant in some key markets. The
impact of the pandemic has generally
strengthened its position; online sales have
surged and leading grocery retailers have
invested and increased their capacity to serve
demand. In some countries, restrictions (such
as lockdowns) meant a lingering distrust of
ordering fresh food online was met head-on.
▪ That said, for China and India, the two largest
markets, the other grocery retailers channel
is most significant, especially in India – the
market forecast to grow most strongly in
absolute terms. In China, small grocers gained
momentum during strict lockdowns,
benefiting from being local and easily
accessible for consumers.

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COVID-19 themes and their impact on fresh food
COVID-19 Themes: Implications for Fresh Food

From The pandemic has seen sustainability evolve beyond ethical credentials and environmental concerns
Sustainability to to a more holistic approach encompassing social, environmental and economic value. Core
Purpose positioning of fresh food such as natural, organic and local significantly benefits from this trend.
Hometainment With lockdowns and restrictions massively shifting eating patterns, consumers have embraced/been
and the New forced to cook at home, driving experimentation (especially as a source of premium-quality food,
Experiential restaurants, have been closed). In addition, as underlying health’s importance became clear, fresh
Consumer food use was prioritised.
Innovation and the With consumers in various markets concerned about the safety of food (witness the re-rise of plastic
New “Core” packaging as people feared transmission) digital traceability, previously focused on promoting
sustainability, has gained new focus, allowing visibility of where food is from and how it got here.
Where and How Online sales have surged because of the pandemic, with even markets that have traditionally been
Consumers Shop reluctant to buy fresh food online increasing their use of e-commerce. In addition to modern grocery
retailers running operations and third party delivery companies increasing investment, direct-to-
consumer and subscription models have blossomed – especially for fresh food suppliers looking for
customers when their sales to foodservice and institutions were hit.
Wellness More consumers are undertaking basic preventative measures by adopting healthy lifestyles.
Redefined Following the initial pantry-loading surge for longer-life shelf stable (ie packaged) food, fresh food
has benefited as consumers have sought food for health, understanding the importance of being
healthy in case the virus strikes.
The “New Normal” Choosing food for health, shopping online and eating at home more often remain in the “new
normal”, even as restaurants come back on stream, restrictions/consumer concerns and the
economic situation mean home consumption will remain stronger than pre-pandemic.

Examining five trends shaping fresh food

Forecast
Trend Expected long-term implications
significance
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated to consumers that eating healthily really is a
Heeding
matter of supreme importance; those with poor health who contracted the virus
healthy
were more likely to suffer negative outcomes. While vaccinations offer hope, a
eating’s
psychological legacy of the pandemic will be that many consumers continue to look
importance
to food to ensure health for the next “it will never happen” health crisis.
Restrictions on consumer movements (eg lockdowns, social distancing restrictions)
meant eating occasions shifted into the home and cooking increased, with a positive
Rediscovering
impact on fresh food sales. While such restrictions may end if vaccinations succeed,
the kitchen
the economic impact of the pandemic will likely have a longer-lasting impact here –
less disposable income means less eating out.
COVID-19 accelerated (already growing) e-commerce grocery sales, as consumers’
ability to visit stores became limited and, in some cases, curtailed. Alongside greater
Going online use of modern grocery retailers’ facilities and third party delivery services, direct-to-
consumer and subscription models also grew, especially as suppliers pivoted once
their sales to foodservice were reduced as restrictions hit home.
Considering Plant-based alternatives received a boost as the pandemic highlighted human
animals in the reliance on animal protein (as the virus’s origins became known). Closures of meat
food chain processing plants through COVID-19 infections reinforced this.
Motivations behind looking for local grew during the pandemic, with considerations
Looking for around food security also coming into play. Consumers saw vulnerabilities in supply
local chains and seeking local became a way of ensuring that food would be there, while
also meeting any demand for comfort, nostalgia and supporting the local economy.

Healthy eating boosts fresh food retail sales
▪ The COVID-19 pandemic has brought a greater Selected Healthy Fresh Foods Retail Sales
appreciation to consumers that their underlying health is Value Growth, Key Markets
important. The message that people with poor general 2019-2020
8,000 9%
health or existing health conditions were more likely to
7,000 8%
suffer – or to die – if becoming infected became clearer as 7%
6,000
the virus spread.
USD million
6%
5,000
▪ In August, the risk from obesity was quantified, and 5%
4,000
demonstrated just how many consumers were at higher 3,000
4%
risk. Researchers from the University of North Carolina, 3%
2,000 2%
using data from 75 studies worldwide and almost 1,000 1%
400,000 patients, found that obesity results in an 0 0%
increased risk of hospitalisation of 113%, an admission to
intensive care risk increase of 74%, and an increased risk
of death from COVID-19 of 48%.
▪ Health messages worldwide have been ramped up
Absolute growth (USD million) Y-o-Y growth
regarding taking exercise and eating well. And while the
Note: Key market data include Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany,
former was harder than pre-pandemic (because exercise India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, South Africa, Spain, UK, UAE, US,
facilities such as gyms were closed, and often consumers Thailand, Vietnam
were restricted in leaving their homes) the latter was not.
Key Point: Fresh food’s health advantages over
▪ Fresh food, generally appreciated to be healthier than
packaged (processed) food are increasingly
processed (in Brazil, for example, the basis of the NOVA
appreciated, and when the health crisis of the
system is that the more processed the food, the
COVID-19 pandemic struck, many consumers
unhealthier it is), benefited in key categories associated
increased their purchases in order to reduce their
with health.
risk of a bad outcome from infection.

COVID-19 causes cooking to grow, driving sales
"How Often Do You Cook Or Bake?" ▪ The shift in meal occasions into the home did not only
increase retail sales of food, but it also increased cooking. For
Almost every day many consumers, the greater time at home (whether from no
commute, financial support that meant they were not
1-2 times a week working, or from lockdown/quarantine restrictions) opened
up an opportunity to cook – or forced it upon reluctant chefs.
1-2 times a month ▪ Consequently, fresh foods as meal ingredients benefited; a
key example is the rise in sales of eggs as home baking
Less than once a
surged (with retail flour shortages a not uncommon
month
occurrence in the early stages of lockdown).
Never
▪ The increase in cooking also helped the meal kit companies
Source: Euromonitor International Lifestyles Survey, fielded January to that sit between food delivery and home preparation.
February 2020, n:41,231
Germany’s Hello Fresh recorded sales of EUR970 million
between July and September 2020, a 120% increase year-on-
Retail Volume Growth of Eggs 2019-2020 year with the number of customer orders up 114% to 19.5
South Africa 19.6% million.
Thailand 18.9% ▪ The context of the pandemic and the now all-pervasive
USA 15.3% influence of healthy eating are clear here as well; in
China 13.5% December 2020, Blue Apron rolled out its “Wellness 360”
France 13.4% initiative in the US, with new recipes, healthier ingredients
Vietnam 13.0% (including whole grains and fresh produce) and
Mexico 11.2% customisation allowing swaps for more vegetables.
United Kingdom 10.8%

Online grocery sales surge in 2020
▪ As noted, the pandemic massively accelerated online Fresh Food E-Commerce Retail Sales Volume,
food shopping as consumers avoided (or were made Key Markets 2015-2020
to avoid) the channels they usually favour for buying 50,000
groceries.
▪ However, in fresh food, a second consequence of
40,000
restrictions on foodservice was that suppliers to
restaurants, cafés, bars etc needed to find a new
customer base – and quickly. 30,000
‘000 tonnes
▪ As a result, direct-to-consumer (DTC) models for
fresh food also proliferated. While farm-to-consumer
20,000
services are not new, there was an influx of entrants.
The move served demand; in the early stages of the
pandemic, pantry-loading behaviour from shoppers 10,000
meant modern grocery retailers struggled to keep
shelves full. For example, the UK’s Food Foundation
0
estimated sales of “veg boxes” had increased by 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
111% between the end of February 2020 and mid-
Note: Key market data include Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India,
April (with lockdown restrictions having come into Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, South Africa, Spain, UK, UAE, US, Thailand,
force late in March). Vietnam
▪ Through all this, 2020 saw online fresh deliveries become an ever more integral part of grocery retailers’
business. A particularly striking example comes from the US, where 2020 saw Walmart’s membership-only
retail warehouse club, Sam’s Club, significantly expand its meat assortment available for delivery, recognising
increased demand for wholesale amounts of meat from home shoppers.

Case study: big and small both look to DTC
Holt Farms Del Monte

▪ In May 2020, Essex (UK)-based Holt Farm launched a ▪ In October
DTC operation in order to compensate for the 2020, Del
lockdown-caused loss of business from foodservice. Monte
▪ The farm – which had been particularly focused on Fresh
supplying Chinese restaurants – began offering home launched a
delivery of fruit and veg boxes, first to one city DTC
(Colchester) before expanding further into the operation,
county. its first
▪ Initially offering local produce and farm produce foray into
e-commerce, offering (same-day) delivery in Dallas.
(their own apple juice, for example) the range
subsequently grew to include items originally grown ▪ www.myfreshdelmonte.com allowed consumers to
for high-end choose from over 200 SKUs, to come with, initially, a
restaurants free order of lemons and a lemonade recipe (as a take
on “making lemons from lemonade”).
(eg Meyer
lemons, ▪ Del Monte has since added “Picky Boxes” to its offer, a
Heritage pre-set menu of fruit and/or veg boxes to choose
tomatoes) from, with the biggest (“Veggie and Fruit Large Box”)
costing USD74.90.
and artisan
food from ▪ As with Holt Farms, the offer is no longer limited to
other local fresh fruit and vegetables – customers can order deli
producers. meats, “nourish bowls” and “wholesome” snacks.

Pandemic creates more scrutiny of human consumption of animals
▪ COVID-19 has brought the concept of animals in

the human food chain under scrutiny like never
before. The overriding narrative is that the initial
cross to humans of the virus came via a wet meat
market, and standards of welfare/hygiene have
been questioned.
▪ Furthermore, regularly reoccurring reports
regarding the virus spreading through meat
processing plants around the world have
reinforced the meat/virus link in consumers’
minds; one reason why meat alternatives have
received a positive push from the pandemic. ▪ This is not to say, however, that consumers have stopped
▪In November 2020, researchers from the buying meat. Appetite in many markets remains high and
University of Chicago and Columbia University increasing (beyond the general surge in food retail caused
published a report stating that people who lived by the pandemic). In the US, fresh meat retail value sales
in US counties with meat processing plants were rose 21% year-on-year for 2020, for example.
51% more likely to get a COVID-19 infection and ▪ What this combination of factors may mean is that the
37% more likely to die from one. Their findings, opportunity for lab-grown meat’s mass-market
published in Proceedings of the National acceptance has grown. In December 2020, Singapore
Academy of Sciences of the US, stated that up to achieved a global first by approving Eat Just’s lab-grown
310,000 COVID-19 infections and up to 5,200 chicken (pictured above) for sale in restaurants – a move
deaths were traceable to “proximity to livestock which may be looked back on as extremely significant in
plants”. the years and decades ahead.

Localisation confers increased feelings of security
▪ The increased interest in local food was occurring "Which of the following do you think are the
before the pandemic struck; as national cuisines most likely effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
homogenised as a consequence of globalisation, on your company's supply chain in the next
support for “home country” (or even “home region”) six months?"
food rose in response.
▪ However, the boost to seeking local from COVID-19 Shortage of supplies
was also based on considerations around food security.
Transportation disruption
Early in the pandemic’s impact, shelves ran empty in
various markets as demand rose for food retail. This Diversify supply chain
demonstrated to consumers the inherent fragility in
Difficult to assess at this time
relying on international deliveries: it became harder
for border crossings to occur and workers were Suppliers close down
restricted in their movements (and were subject to
Production stoppage/suspension
quarantine restrictions, in many cases).
Short term change of production
▪ In this regard, local moved beyond just the “morally” focus
positioned choice (ie buy local, support the local
Shift to a localised supply chain
economy) to one that also conferred safety (ie the food
will be here, for you). Long term change of focus
▪ Indeed, in some markets, the safety aspect reached Moving critical ops. to unaffected
regions
further. As noted, links between food (especially meat)
and the virus have persisted in consumers’ minds to Other/None of the above/NA
varying degrees in different markets, and for some 0% 20% 40%
people local, “non-exotic” food has seemed less risky.
Source: Euromonitor International Voice of the Industry Survey, fielded October
2020, n:792 food & beverage industry professionals

Case study: CrowdFarming
CrowdFarming
▪ CrowdFarming began in 2015, when orange farmers in Valencia

decided to bypass the existing supply chain and instead offer an
ultra-local proposition; consumers adopted a tree and subsequently
received their harvest at home.
▪ From there the idea has expanded to include honey, coffee,
pistachios and other crops, animals and even orchards. Indeed, it is
currently not possible to adopt some produce (pomegranates,
apricots, clementines) as maximum capacity has been reached.
▪ Aside from adoption – under which people can now choose a
particular project in which they want to participate – online
customers can buy a box for home delivery, to countries all over
Europe. 5kg of oranges cost just under EUR20 for delivery to
Germany, for example.
▪ By 2016, CrowdFarming had 700 users, with over 10,000 trees adopted. In December 2017, its online platform
launched, growing to aggregate 14 separate agricultural projects and to over 45,000 customers.
▪ The company now boasts over 70 producers from eight countries (Spain, Germany, Austria, France, Hungary,
Italy, the Philippines and Colombia) and produces food for over 120,000 families across 28 different countries.
▪ Aside from disrupting the standard supply chain process, CrowdFarming is particularly notable for its role in
fighting food waste – growth/cultivation is based on what is adopted. Only what is ordered is harvested, and
there is no weeding out of produce based on aesthetic standards.

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
IMPACT OF COVID-19
Fresh food under the COVID-19 scenarios
▪ Given the ongoing uncertainty with COVID-19, in 2020 Euromonitor built various likely scenarios of future
growth, which were adjusted and updated frequently since the outset of COVID-19. These scenarios are
described in full below:
Pre-C19 Forecast New Baseline C19 Pessimistic 1 C19 Pessimistic 2 C19 Pessimistic 3
▪The pre-COVID-19 ▪Global GDP in 2020: ▪Global GDP in 2020: ▪Global GDP in 2020: ▪Global GDP in 2020:
pandemic forecast -4% to -1.5% -6% to -4% -8% to -6% -11.5% to -8%
from January 2020
▪Virus infection rates ▪Virus infection rates ▪Virus infection rates ▪Virus infection rates
▪Global GDP in 2020: are 1-10%, with are 5-25%, with are 15-35%, with are 20-50%, with
2.6% to 3.4% case mortality rates case mortality rates case mortality rates case mortality rates
of 0.3-1.3% globally of 0.5-1.5% globally of 1-3% globally of 1.5-3.5% globally
▪Positive: High levels
of consumer ▪Social distancing ▪Social distancing ▪Social distancing ▪Social distancing
confidence, low restrictions last for measures last for 2- measures last for 3- measures last for 3-
financial system 1-3 quarters 4 quarters 5 quarters 7 quarters
stress, supportive
monetary policy ▪Each month of strict ▪Global consumer ▪Global consumer ▪Global consumer
quarantine causes a and business and business and business
▪Negative: Trade war 25-45% decline in confidence indices confidence indices confidence indices
risks, declining economic activity fall to levels at the fall to levels at the fall to levels at the
business confidence, relative to normal 10-30th percentile 1-20th percentile 1-10th percentile
high corporate debt of their historic of their historic of their historic
▪Global stock prices
levels, uncertainty values values values
stabilise at 15-30%
surrounding the
recent COVID-19 below pre-C19 ▪Global stock prices ▪Global stock prices ▪Global stock prices
levels and rebound decline by 10-30% decline by 25-45% decline by 40-70%
outbreak in China
by 10-30% in the relative to baseline relative to baseline relative to baseline
second half of 2020

IMPACT OF COVID-19
The future: health-driven demand over economic difficulties
▪ In terms of outperforming
pre-COVID-19 retail sales
forecasts, fresh food has
been one of the most
successful industries, more
than doubling the expected
annual growth rate.
▪ Packaged food is also one
of the strongest growing
industries in these terms,
with (as noted) foodservice
and institutional closures
forcing greater in-home
consumption of food and
greater purchase of food at
retail.
▪ While future demand will
face the economic
headwinds of the
pandemic-caused recession
(ie with lower average disposable income, people will look to save on food bills) this will likely be balanced by
the fact that, as befits a health crisis, many consumers have learned to place greater emphasis on eating
healthily and increasing the focus on healthy fresh food in their diets and, thus, food purchases.

IMPACT OF COVID-19
Health through food supports forecast growth
▪ Overall, fresh food retail value sales are not expected to drop back to
pre-pandemic levels (they would do so only under the two most
pessimistic scenarios) as consumer health concern is likely to see
fresh food retail sales hold up, even as vaccinations proliferate and
foodservice comes fully back on stream.
▪ Categories such as nuts and vegetables demonstrate this in
particular; both already growing pre-2020 thanks to increased
consumer interest in health through food; both boosted by the
COVID-19 pandemic; both set to grow strongly through to 2025.

IMPACT OF COVID-19
Outlook suggests fresh food success
Natural trend continuation

Continued interest in natural foods will be important – while trends such as clean label
demand have driven the turn away from processed (packaged) food in some markets, the
pandemic did boost sales of fortified and long-life foods (ie a shift away from all-natural).
But as health concerns have increased and maintaining good health has been shown to be so
vitally important, while consumers retain their interest in doing so, fresh food will benefit.
Consumers remember food for health as vaccinations roll out

As vaccinations become common and the virus’s hold hopefully diminishes, if consumers
retain their interest in food for health – or perhaps more importantly, if authorities around
the world support its continuation (after all, better eating will cut obesity, diabetes, cancer
rates etc) – then fresh food will carry on benefiting. If not, and people just go back to old
habits, then conditions such as obesity will continue to grow and peoples’ health will
continue to fall – with another pandemic always possible.
The online shift has opened up new opportunities and acceptance

As social distancing/lockdowns/isolation/quarantines became part of consumers’ lives, so
greater numbers were persuaded (or forced) to turn online in order to secure the food they
needed. Having now experienced these services, or having used them more often, the
convenience of buying online has been ably demonstrated – reinforced by the proliferation
of DTC operations that the pandemic has spurred. For some, this has meant learning that e-
commerce is indeed a suitable way of buying fresh food, and with that barrier dealt with,
retail sales will benefit.

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of eggs

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of fish and seafood

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of fruits

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of meat

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of nuts

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of pulses

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of starchy roots

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of sugar and sweeteners

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Global snapshot of vegetables

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Asia Pacific

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: North America

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Latin America

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Western Europe

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Middle East and Africa

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Eastern Europe

MARKET SNAPSHOTS
Regional snapshot: Australasia

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
IMPACT OF COVID-19
MARKET SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
APPENDIX
Definitions
▪ Fresh Food: This is the aggregation of fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods, packaged and unpackaged,
ambient, chilled and frozen.
▪ Eggs: This is the aggregation of all fresh poultry eggs.
▪ Fish and seafood: This is the aggregation of fresh fish, crustaceans, molluscs and cephalopods.
▪ Fruits: This is the aggregation of fresh apples, bananas, cherries, cranberries and blueberries, grapefruit and
pomelo, grapes, kiwi fruit, lemons and limes, oranges, peaches and nectarines, pears and quinces, plums and
sloes, tangerines and mandarins, pineapples, strawberries and other fruit.
▪ Meat: This is the aggregation of fresh beef and veal, lamb, mutton and goat, pork, poultry and other meat.
▪ Nuts: This is the aggregation of almonds, walnuts, pistachio, peanuts (or groundnuts) and other nuts.
▪ Pulses: This is the aggregation of dry beans, peas and other pulses.
▪ Starchy roots: This is the aggregation of fresh potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes and other roots.
▪ Vegetables: This is the aggregation of fresh cauliflowers/broccoli, maize, tomatoes, onions and other
vegetables.
▪ Sugar and sweeteners: This is the aggregation of all table-top raw sugar products and natural sweeteners.

FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Tom Rees
Industry Manager
Tom.rees@Euromonitor.com
Experience more...
This research from Euromonitor International is part of a global Learn More
strategic intelligence system that offers a complete picture of the To find out more about Euromonitor
commercial environment. Also available from Euromonitor International's complete range of
International: business intelligence on industries,
countries and consumers please visit
Global Briefings www.euromonitor.com or contact
Timely, relevant insight published every month on the state of the market, your local Euromonitor International
emerging trends and pressing industry issues. office:
Bangalore +91 (80) 67740500
Interactive Statistical Database
Cape Town +27 21 524 3000
Complete market analysis at a level of detail beyond any other source.
Chicago +1 312 922 1115
Market sizes, market shares, distribution channels and forecasts.
Dubai +971 4 372 4363
Strategy Briefings Dusseldorf +49 211 890 0944
Executive debate on the global trends changing the consumer markets of Hong Kong +852 3796 3604
the future. London +44 0 20 7251 8024
Global Company Profiles Santiago +56 22 915 7200
The competitive positioning and strategic direction of leading companies São Paulo +55 11 2970 2150
including uniquely sector-specific sales and share data. Seoul +82 2 6123 0209
Country Market Insight Reports Shanghai +86 21 6032 1088
The key drivers influencing the industry in each country; comprehensive Singapore +65 6429 0590
coverage of supply-side and demand trends and how they shape future Sydney +61 0 2 9581 9200
outlook. Tokyo +81 3 3436 2100
Vilnius +370 5 243 1577

The World Market For Fresh Food

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

The World Market For Fresh Food

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

The World Market For Fresh Food

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD

Fish & Seafood – 102 million tonnes

Vegetables – 656 million tonnes

Sugar & Sweeteners – 92 million tonnes

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 3

Examining five trends shaping fresh food

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 4

COVID-19: impact on fresh food

Massive shift in meal Recession pressures

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 5

Total sales volume turns negative thanks to pandemic-driven restrictions

▪ Fresh food sales grew in each year

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 7

Fruit and vegetables continue to dominate global consumption

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 8

▪ The Asia Pacific

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 9

Vegetables and fruit sales growth ahead

▪ The global pandemic has not altered

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 10

Population growth and regulatory moves power top growth markets

▪ India and China remain – by some

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 11

Pandemic reinforces larger stores’ strengths

▪ Hypermarkets/supermarkets is the most

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 12

COVID-19 themes and their impact on fresh food

COVID-19 Themes: Implications for Fresh Food

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 14

Examining five trends shaping fresh food

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 15

Healthy eating boosts fresh food retail sales

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 16

COVID-19 causes cooking to grow, driving sales

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 17

Online grocery sales surge in 2020

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 18

Case study: big and small both look to DTC

Holt Farms Del Monte

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 19

Pandemic creates more scrutiny of human consumption of animals

▪ COVID-19 has brought the concept of animals in

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 20

Localisation confers increased feelings of security

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 21

Case study: CrowdFarming

▪ CrowdFarming began in 2015, when orange farmers in Valencia

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 22

Fresh food under the COVID-19 scenarios

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 24

The future: health-driven demand over economic difficulties

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 25

Health through food supports forecast growth

© Euromonitor International THE WORLD MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD PASSPORT 26

Outlook suggests fresh food success

Natural trend continuation

Consumers remember food for health as vaccinations roll out

The online shift has opened up new opportunities and acceptance