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    This document summarizes the process of decision making. It defines decision making as selecting among available alternatives. There are three types of decision makers: risk takers, risk avoiders, and moderates. Expected value is calculated using probability and value. The stages of decision making are intelligence activities, design activities, and choice activities. Models of decision making include the ecological model, bounded rationality model, and implicit favorite model. Hypothesis testing involves accepting or rejecting hypotheses. Decision tree analysis and expected value calculations are demonstrated. Examples of decision making problems and practice questions are provided.

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    This document summarizes the process of decision making. It defines decision making as selecting among available alternatives. There are three types of decision makers: risk takers, risk avoiders, and moderates. Expected value is calculated using probability and value. The stages of decision making are intelligence activities, design activities, and choice activities. Models of decision making include the ecological model, bounded rationality model, and implicit favorite model. Hypothesis testing involves accepting or rejecting hypotheses. Decision tree analysis and expected value calculations are demonstrated. Examples of decision making problems and practice questions are provided.

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    13 views19 pages

    Decision Making

    Uploaded by

    Ries Maulana
    This document summarizes the process of decision making. It defines decision making as selecting among available alternatives. There are three types of decision makers: risk takers, risk avoiders, and moderates. Expected value is calculated using probability and value. The stages of decision making are intelligence activities, design activities, and choice activities. Models of decision making include the ecological model, bounded rationality model, and implicit favorite model. Hypothesis testing involves accepting or rejecting hypotheses. Decision tree analysis and expected value calculations are demonstrated. Examples of decision making problems and practice questions are provided.

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    of 19

    PROSES PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

    (DECISION MAKING)

    Disadur oleh:
    Dr. Ir. Bambang Sugiyono Agus Purwono, M Sc
    Jurusan Teknik Mesin
    Politeknik Negeri Malang

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 1


    DEFINITION
    DECISION MAKING = A PROCESS OF SELECTING AMONG AVAILBLE
    ALTERNATIVES

    TYPE OF DECISION MAKER


    1. RISK TAKER = PENGAMBIL RISIKO
    2. RISK AVOIDER = PENGHINDAR RISIKO
    3. MODERATE = MODERAT

    EXPECTED VALUE
    (NILAI EKSPEKTASI/EV)
    n p = probability
    EV =  pi Vi = p1 V1 + p2V2 + ......+ pnVn V = value
    i=1
    21/04/2020 Decision Making 2
    STAGES

    1. INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES
    2. DESIGN ACTIVITIES
    3. CHOICE ACTIVITIES

    MODEL

    1. ECONOLOGICAL
    2. BOUNDED RATIONALITY
    3. IMPLICIT FAVORITE

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 3


    1. ECONOLOGICAL MODEL

    Richard M Steer, 1985: 236

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 4


    2. BOUNDED RATIONALITY MODEL

    Richard M Steer, 1985: 238

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 5


    3. IMPLICIT FAVORITE MODEL

    Richard M Steer, 1985: 241

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 6


    HYPOTHESIS

    HYPOTHESIS
    ACCEPTED REJECTED
    (DITERIMA) (DITOLAK)
    GOOD OKE TYPE I ERROR
    (α ERROR)
    BAD TYPE II ERROR OKE
    (β ERROR)

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 7


    DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
    Kontribusi Keuntungan
    p sukses

    A1
    p gagal
    p1

    p2
    A A2
    p3

    p
    A3

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 8


    DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
    Kontribusi Keuntungan
    p sukses=50% Rp. 20 M/tahun

    A1 = deposito

    p gagal = 50% - Rp. 5 M


    Investasi p1 = 50%
    Rp. 25 M/tahun
    A2 = USAHA
    p2 = 30% Rp. 15 M/tahun
    Rp. 100 M
    p3 = 20% - Rp. 10 M/tahun

    A3= Disimpan di bawah bantal


    P = 100%
    Rp. 0 M/tahun

    A1 = alternative 1

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 9


    EXPECTED VALUE
    Perhitungan:

    EV1 = 50% (20 M) – 50% (5 M) = Rp. 7,5 M

    EV2 = 50% (25 M) + 30% (15 M) - 20% (10M) = Rp. 15,5 M

    EV3 = 100% (0) = Rp. 0

    Kesimpulan:

    Pilihan pertama adalah EV2 karena mempunyai nilai EV


    tertinggi, pilihan kedua adalah EV1 dan pilihan ketiga adalah
    EV3.

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 10


    CONTOH SOAL

    Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisis Keputusan, 1989:68


    21/04/2020 Decision Making 11
    CONTOH SOAL

    Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisis Keputusan, 1989:68

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 12


    CONTOH SOAL

    Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisis Keputusan, 1989:68


    21/04/2020 Decision Making 13
    CONTOH SOAL

    Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisis Keputusan, 1989:70


    21/04/2020 Decision Making 14
    CONTOH SOAL

    Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisis Keputusan, 1989:68


    21/04/2020 Decision Making 15
    SOAL-LATIHAN

    Kostas N Dervitsiotis, OM, h 63


    21/04/2020 Decision Making 16
    SOAL-LATIHAN
    Buat soal yang mirip sebanyak 5 soal.
    Kontribusi Keuntungan
    p sukses

    A1
    p gagal
    p1
    A2
    p2

    p3

    A3
    p

    21/04/2020 Decision Making 17


    BIODATA
    1. Name : Dr. Ir. Bambang Sugiyono Agus Purwono, M Sc
    2. Address : Dirgantara Permai B V/ No. 33, Malang 65138 – East Java - Indonesia

    3. Telp. : +62341716851; HP: +6281334359672


    4. E-mail : bambangsap2015@gmail.com
    5. Job level : Lektor Kepala/ IV d
    6. Occupation : Lecturer - Mechanical Eng. Dept. - State Polytechnic of Malang-Indonesia
    Lecturer – STT Berita Hidup – Surakarta (Post graduate program)
    7. Education : S-1 Mech. Eng. Faculty of Tech. University of Brawijaya (1982)
    background S-2 (Master degree) - Industrial and Management Eng. ITB (1988)
    S-3 (Ph D) Faculty of Economics and Business – Univ. of Brawijaya, (2011)
    8. Domestic : Presenter – Entrepreneurship National Seminar – Malang (2010, 2013)
    activities Presenter – Maintenance Management National Seminar - Malang (2013)
    Presenter - Balanced Scorecard Workshop - East Java (2009 - 2014)
    Presenter - Strategic Management Int. Conf . Bali and Malang (2010)
    Presenter – International Conference /ICSEEA 2012 - Yogyakarta (2012)
    9. Abroad activities : Participant - HIV AIDS Workshop (UN AIDS) - Thailand (1998)
    Participant - HIV AIDS Workshop (UN AIDS) - German (2002)
    Presenter - Business Development Skills - Timor Leste (2008)
    Participant - Sandwich like program - Australia (2009)
    Benchmarking in Malaysia dan Singapore (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014,2018,2019)
    Presenter - International Conference: SET 2013 - Hong Kong (2013), NIT
    India (2014); Bangkok – Thailand (2017,2019); Gogreen Summit – Manila
    (2018); ICSGT – Malang (2018), Malaysia (2018,2019), Singapore (2019),
    4/21/2020 Beijing (2019) Decision Making 18
    21/04/2020 Decision Making 19

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