Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environmental Pollution
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envpol

The impacts of urbanization on fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

concentrations: Empirical evidence from 135 countries worldwide*
Qiang Wang a, b, Mei-Po Kwan c, d, Kan Zhou e, Jie Fan e, *, Yafei Wang e, Dongsheng Zhan f
a
State Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou,
350007, PR China
b
School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350007, PR China
c
Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
d
Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, 3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands
e
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing, 100191, PR China
f
College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, PR China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Few attempts have been made to systematically investigate the impacts of urbanization on PM2.5 con-
Received 5 September 2018 centrations in countries at different stages of economic development. In this study, a broad concept of
Received in revised form urbanization that considers the transformations in the urban economy and the transport sector induced
26 December 2018
by urbanization is proposed to investigate the influence of urbanization on national PM2.5 concentrations
Accepted 20 January 2019
for underdeveloped, developing and developed countries during 1998e2014. The results indicate that
Available online 29 January 2019
urbanization has a significant relationship with PM2.5 concentrations, but the magnitude of its influence
varies among groups of countries with different development levels. First, the positive response of PM2.5
Keywords:
Urbanization
concentrations to increased urbanization and transport-related emissions in underdeveloped countries
PM2.5 concentrations are noticeably stronger than that in developing and developed countries. Second, for developing coun-
Panel data tries, urbanization, transport-related emissions and industrialization all have a significant positive effect
Manufacturing industry on national PM2.5 concentrations increase, although their impacts are unexpectedly smaller than those in
Transport sector the other groups of countries. Finally, increasing urbanization and the decrease in CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry appear to reduce national average PM2.5 concentrations in developed countries,
while the decrease in transport-related CO2 emission is likely to cause the rise in national average PM2.5
concentrations.
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction it is well acknowledged that there is a close link between exposure

Air pollution poses an increasing threat to environmental se-
curity and public health (Lelieveld et al., 2015; Shen et al., 2017; Ji
and Zhao, 2015; Evans et al., 1984; Kolokotsa and Santamouris,
2015; WHO, 2018; Huang et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2014; Hyslop,
2009). It reportedly causes about 7.3 million premature deaths
each year and ranks first among many environmental concerns in
terms of human health (Shen et al., 2017; WHO, 2018). Particularly,
*
This paper has been recommended for acceptance by Dr. Kimberly Hageman.
* Corresponding author. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development
Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, NO.11 Datun Road, Chaoyang District,
Beijing, 100101, China..
E-mail address: fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn (J. Fan).
to fine particles (PM) and health risk from heart and lung disease,
such as asthma, heart attack, bronchitis and other respiratory
problems (Pope et al., 2002; Villalobos-Pietrini et al., 2007; Brook
et al., 2010; Pope and Dockery, 2006). Moreover, owing to its
small size and light weight, fine particulate matter with an aero-
dynamic diameter of less than 2.5 mm (PM2.5) tends to stay longer in
the air than the larger particles and can bypass the nose and throat
and penetrate deep into the lungs and even the circulatory system
(Cole, 2007; Liu and Diamond, 2005; Bai et al., 2014).
Among various sources attributable to fine particles emissions,
urbanization has been reported as a significant contributor (Zhang
and Cao, 2015; Li et al., 2016; Chan and Yao, 2008; Han et al., 2014,
2015, 2016; Wang et al., 2017; Gurjar et al., 2016; Yang et al., 2018).
As the home to more than half of the world's population, urban
areas account for about 80% of the world's gross domestic product

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.086
0269-7491/© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
990 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998
as well as over 70% of global energy use and energy-related emis-
sions (Grubler et al., 2012). Thus policy-oriented research on the
sustainability of urbanization should be conducted urgently
(Antrop, 2000). For example, the impacts of urbanization-induced
population migration on ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China
was studied by Shen et al. (2017), and the results suggest that the
net effect of migration was a reduction in PM2.5 exposure, primarily
because of switching to cleaner fuel types in residential and
transportation sectors. In contrast, opposite findings were put for-
ward by some other studies. For instance, Li et al. (2016) found that
urbanization increased PM2.5 concentrations at the prefecture (an
administrative unit in China that is smaller than a province but
larger than a county) level during 1999e2011, even in the long
term. Han et al. (2014, 2015) quantitatively examined the spatial
patterns of PM2.5 concentrations in Chinese cities and suggested
that urbanization had a considerable impact on the increase of
PM2.5 concentrations. Wang et al. (2017) found a positive correla-
tion between PM2.5 concentrations and the size of urban areas,
urban population, the share of secondary industry and population
density. In addition, some studies extended the research scope
from the national level to the global scale, and discussed variations
in the relationship between urbanization and PM2.5 emissions. For
instance, Han et al. (2016) found that PM2.5 concentrations in large
cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little
fluctuation or only slightly increase, but in Africa and India, PM2.5
concentrations in cities with a population larger than five million
showed a “U” type trend as urban population increases. Apart from
the aforementioned conclusions, Gurjar et al. (2016) and Yang et al.
(2018) found that the association between urbanization and PM2.5
concentrations varied in different megacities and countries.
The inconsistency in research findings discussed above can be
partly attributed to the uneven levels of social-economic develop-
ment around the world. In this regard, the S-curve theory of ur-
banization proposed by Northam (1975) may provide a theoretical
basis for comprehensively understanding the association between
PM2.5 concentrations and urbanization in different regions at
different developmental stages. According to the theory, as the
share of urban population in the total population increases, ur-
banization can be divided into three distinct stages: the initial stage
(the share of urban population
30%), the acceleration stage
(30% < the share of urban population < 70%), and the terminal stage
(the share of urban population  70%). Moreover, the scale and
speed of population migration, urban area expansion, industrial
structure, and residential patterns vary significantly at different
urbanization stages (Antrop, 2000; Chen et al., 2014; Pannell,
2002), which are closely associated with energy use and air
pollution emissions. For instance, at the initial stage, most of the
population in a region tend to be distributed evenly and are largely
employed in agriculture and fishing. During this stage, both the
economy and urbanization develop slowly, and problems with air
pollution mainly arise from solid biomass combustion; but there
might be little concern about the harmful air pollution emissions.
However, when a region enters the acceleration stage of urbani-
zation, the importance of manufacturing and mining increases, and
the pace of rural-urban migration also increases rapidly, leading to
more fossil fuel use and air pollution emissions (Furtado et al.,
2000; Ehrhardt Martinez et al., 2002). While at the terminal
stage, a growing concern for environmental degradation, advances
in pollutant abatement and renewable energy technologies, and
strict governmental regulations will lead to a significant decrease in
pollutant emissions (Mol and Spaargaren, 2000; Poumanyvong and
Kaneko, 2010). In brief, these theoretical and empirical propositions
suggest that urbanization should have varying environmental im-
pacts across different urban and developmental stages.
On the whole, prior studies have made important contributions
to understanding the impacts of urbanization-induced population
migration on PM2.5 concentrations in developing countries such as
China and India (Gurjar et al., 2016; Seto et al., 2014, 2017; Wang
et al., 2018; Guan et al., 2014; Meng et al., 2015; Xu and Lin,
2018; Gummeneni et al., 2011; Hao and Liu, 2016; Lu et al., 2017;
Yang et al., 2017). However, few studies have examined the
different impacts of urbanization on regional PM2.5 concentrations
from a multi-national perspective and considered the differences in
its impacts among countries at different urbanization stages and
developmental levels. To fill this knowledge gap, this study aims at
investigating the relationship between urbanization and PM2.5
concentrations from a multi-national perspective. Its potential
contribution to the literature includes two aspects. First, to the
extent that data is available, the study extends the coverage of
previous studies to 135 countries for the first time. These countries
are classified into three groups according to their socio-economic
development levels. Second, a new framework is proposed from
three dimensions: population migration, economic transformation,
and transport motorization in the broader process of urbanization.
2. Framework of study
To lay a foundation for analyzing the relationships between
urbanization and PM2.5 concentrations, this section discusses the
concept of urbanization and provides a conceptual framework for
the study. In general, the term “urbanization” refers to the physical
growth of urban areas as a result of population migration from rural
areas to cities or industrial areas (Chace and Walsh, 2006), which
has a profound impact on human life and the geographic distri-
bution of economic activities (Shen et al., 2017; Timmermans et al.,
2017; Wang, 2014; Wang et al., 2016a,b). In addition, urbanization
not only increases the population living and working in urban areas
but also contributes to increasing travel distance (Hankey and
Marshall, 2010), mobility and automobile use (Rodrigue et al.,
2017; APERC, 2007; Poumanyvong et al., 2012). Because of these
changes, the ways in which human activities adapt to urbanization
may directly affect the environment and air quality. As described in
previous studies, motorized traffic intensity significantly influ-
enced particulate matter concentrations in urban areas (Monn
et al., 1997; Briggs et al., 2000; Weber and Weber, 2008; Merbitz
et al., 2012; Krecl et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015; Targino et al.,
2016), and industrialization inevitably led to increased PM2.5
emissions in developing countries (Li et al., 2016; Krecl et al., 2014;
Briggs et al., 2000). Overall, these observations on the urbanization-
environment nexus provide us a motivation to conduct a globe-
wide study.
This study therefore proposes a new framework that focuses on
three dimensions including population migration, economic
transformation, and motorized transport in the broader process of
urbanization, as shown in Fig. 1. In other words, along with ur-
banization, increasing use of motorized travel modes (e.g., private
vehicles) and the rapid development of manufacturing industry
may lead to increasing PM2.5 concentrations.
This study includes three key steps. The first step is to classify
countries into several groups according to a specific criterion or
some criteria, such as urbanization stage and socio-economic
development level. Generally, the degree of urbanization is repre-
sented by the percentage of urban population in the total popula-
tion. However, some developing countries in the Middle East and
Latin America have a similar urbanization degree but different
socio-economic development levels when compared to the devel-
oped countries in Europe and North America. For example, in these
developing countries, the share of the urban population among the
total population has reached over 70%, but there is no accompa-
nying industrial structural transformation and economic growth as
 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998 991

Fig. 1. Illustration of the changes in urbanization on the average of PM2.5 concentrations in a region. Average of PM2.5 concentrations in a country is a competition between higher
emissions in urban areas and lower background concentrations in rural and wild areas. The general results of this competition induced by urbanization includes two scenarios: an
increase or decrease in regional PM2.5 concentrations.

observed in the European and North American contexts. From this which are widely acknowledge to affect PM2.5 emissions.
perspective, classifying countries in terms of their socio-economic
development levels seems more suitable for this study. Therefore,
3. Data and methodology
based on information obtained from the Department of Economic
and Social Affairs of the United Nations (UN-DESA, 2018a), the 135
3.1. Methods
countries selected for this study are divided into three categories:
26 underdeveloped countries, 75 developing countries, and 34
There is an extensive literature on the rationales behind the
developed countries. Underdeveloped countries are characterized
spatiotemporal changes in PM2.5 concentrations from different re-
by low-income, relatively low share of urban population, and
spects. Since the main purpose of this study is to investigate the
confronting severe structural impediments to sustainable devel-
effect of urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations at the global scale,
opment. These countries are defined as the “least developed
the selection of indicators particularly focused on the environ-
countries” by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
mental impacts of population migration, as well as economic
United Nations Secretariat. Developing countries refer to those that
transformation and increase in motorized transportation that are
are in transition from the traditional resource-based and high
induced by urbanization. Thus, a panel data model was formulated
energy-consuming industries to an era dominated by service and
as follows:
technology industries. These countries include countries classified
as “economies in transition” and “developing economies excluding
C_PM2.5it ¼ aþb1Urbit þb2E_MS itþb3E_TS itþεit (1)
the least developed countries” by the Department of Economic and
Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Developed countries
Where C_PM2.5 denotes annual PM2.5 concentrations in a country;
refer to those countries with a developed economy, a high share of
Urb represents the share of the urban population; E_MS and E_TS
urban population and advanced technological infrastructure. These
refers to CO2 emissions from manufacturing industry and transport
countries are defined as “developed economies” by the Department
sector respectively; i¼1, …,N represents each country in the panel,
of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.
t¼1, …,T refers to the time period; a is a constant; b1, b2, and b3 are
After classifying the 135 selected countries, the association be-
the parameters to be estimated, while εit is error terms.
tween urbanization and PM2.5 concentrations is investigated with
To examine whether a statistically significant relationship exists
respect to the three groups of countries at different developmental
between PM2.5 concentrations and urbanization, we perform a
stages. Significant differences in the impacts of urbanization on
testing procedure consisting of a series of tests as follows. First, two
PM2.5 concentrations between different groups are expected.
types of panel unit root tests, Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) (Levin et al.,
Finally, to further illustrate the underlying causes of variations
2002), and Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS) (Im et al., 2003), are
in PM2.5 concentrations associated with urbanization for different
employed to identify the stationarity of the time series. Then, if all
groups of countries, this study takes the share of urban population
variables, including C_PM2.5, Urb, E_MS, and E_TS, are stationary
among the total population, CO2 emissions from manufacturing
based on the same order difference, the long-term cointegration
industry and the transport sector as indicators to examine the
between the variables is examined using the Pedroni cointegration
different influences of urban population growth, economic trans-
test method suggested by Pedroni (2004). Moreover, if four vari-
formation, and transport motorization on PM2.5 concentrations. It is
ables (including C_PM2.5, Urb, E_MS, and E_TS) are cointegrated,
worth noting that choosing sectoral CO2 emissions as indicators is
the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) regression
based on the consideration of structural transformation of the na-
method (Pedroni, 2000) is utilized to estimate the relationships
tional economy and energy supply mix induced by urbanization,
between these factors and PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, the
992 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998

Granger causality test (Canning and Pedroni, 2008) is conducted to intended to aid in large-scale studies and has been used in many
explore the causal links between the variables. More detailed in- studies at the national or regional scale (Luo et al., 2017; Ma et al.,
formation about these tests is provided in the Supporting Infor- 2016; Pinault et al., 2016). In addition, van Donkelaar et al. (2016)
mation document. suggested that although the PM2.5 concentrations estimates from
this dataset linearly fit well for a dataset collected from monitoring
stations (coefficient of determination R2 ¼ 0.81), estimates in parts
3.2. Data sources
of Asia, Africa and Latin America were associated with higher un-
certainty because of both sparse ground-based monitoring and
A panel dataset of 135 countries from different parts of the
challenging conditions for retrieval and simulation.
world for the period 1998e2014 is used in this study. The data on
In addition, data on national urbanization level and CO2 emis-
PM2.5 concentrations was collected from the Atmospheric
sions from manufacturing industry and the transport sector are
Composition Analysis Group at Dalhousie University (2018) esti-
derived from the World Development Indicators published by the
mated by combining Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with the GEOS-
World Bank (2018). The global distribution of urbanization level
Chem chemical transport model and subsequently calibrated by
and PM2.5 concentrations in 1998 and 2014 are shown in Fig. 2,
using geographically weighted regression based on monitoring
which indicate that European, North- and South American, and
data of PM2.5 (van Donkelaar et al., 2015, 2016; Boys et al., 2014; Lu
Oceanian countries generally had lower PM2.5 concentrations and
et al., 2017). This ground-level dataset provides global PM2.5 con-
higher urbanization level. By contrast, as shown in Fig. 3, fast-
centrations from 1998 to 2016 with a geographical range of from
urbanizing countries, where the share of the urban population
54.995 S to 69.995 N and from 179.995 W to 179.995 E, and en-
increased by more than the global average a rise of eight percent
tails multiple spatial resolutions. In this study, we utilize a subset of
during 1998e2014, were mainly located in Africa and Asia (Ji and
the global PM2.5 concentrations data at a 0.1  0.1 resolution and
Zhao, 2015; UN-DESA, 2018b). Meanwhile, as shown in Fig. 4, the
geographically weighted regression adjustment, which is primarily

Fig. 2. Global distribution and evolvement of urbanization and PM2.5 concentrations,1998e2014.

 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998 993

Fig. 3. Global distribution of urbanization's change between 1998 and 2014 (DUrb ¼ Urb2014-Urb1998).

regional trends in PM2.5 concentrations were divided. During
1998e2014, PM2.5 concentrations in European and North American
countries continued to fall, but they increased significantly in many
developing countries, especially in some Middle Eastern and Asian
countries.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Empirical results
As shown in Table S1 in the Supporting Information document,
the panel unit root test results for different groupings of the 135
countries d including the global panel, developed countries,
developing countries, and underdeveloped countries d show four
variables, including PM2.5 concentrations (C_PM2.5), and the share
of urban population (Urb), CO2 emissions from manufacturing in-
dustry (E_MS) and the transport sector (E_TS), become stationary at
first difference, which suggests all variables for each grouping
contain a panel unit root. Therefore, on the basis of the stationarity
of all variables, a test for the cointegrating relationship between
PM2.5 concentrations (C_PM2.5) and the share of urban population
(Urb), CO2 emissions from manufacturing industry (E_MS) and the
transport sector (E_TS), can be carried out. In terms of the number
of significant statistics in Table S2 in the Supporting Information
document, eight of the eleven statistics are significant at the 1% and
5% level for each group, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis of no
cointegration and indicating that the three variables, the share of
urban population (Urb), CO2 emissions from manufacturing in-
dustry (E_MS), have a cointegrating relationship with PM2.5 con-
centrations (C_PM2.5).
Based on the tests for stationarity and cointegration of the
variables, FMOLS regression is conducted and the results are pre-
sented in Table 1. As expected, the results suggest that urbanization
has a significant relationship with PM2.5 concentrations but the
magnitude of its influence varies among different groups of coun-
tries. The response of PM2.5 concentrations to urbanization is about
0.198 in the underdeveloped countries group, noticeably higher
than the developed and developing countries groups. While in the
developed countries group, the regression coefficient indicates that
a 1% increase in the share of urban population in the total popu-
lation will decrease PM2.5 concentrations by 0.191%. Meanwhile,
there is a close association between CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and PM2.5 concentrations in both the
developed and developing countries groups. The results indicate
that, along with urbanization, a 1% rise in CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry will increase PM2.5 concentrations by

Fig. 4. Global distribution of PM2.5 concentrations' change between 1998 and 2014 (DC_PM2.5 ¼ C_PM2.5 2014- C_PM2.5 1998; the classification of the difference of PM2.5 concen-
trations was based on the Jenks Natural Breaks algorithm (De Smith et al., 2009) on the platform of ArcMap 10.4).
994 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998

Table 1 the results suggest that urbanization and manufacturing industry

Panel FMOLS test results with C_PM2.5 as dependent variable.
Statistics Coefficients
Urb E_MS E_TS
*** **
Global panel 0.119 0.017 0.030***
Developed group 0.191*** 0.065*** 0.036***
Developing group 0.152*** 0.018** 0.025***
Underdeveloped group 0.198*** 0.026 0.213***
Note: * Indicates significance at the 10% level. ** Indicates significance at the 5%
level. *** Indicates significance at the 1% level.
about 0.065% and 0.018% in the developed and the developing
countries groups respectively. In addition, changes in CO2 emis-
sions from the transport sector appear to have a greater impact on
PM2.5 concentrations in the underdeveloped countries group than
in the other groups, and the response of PM2.5 concentrations
reaches 0.213. In contrast, CO2 emissions from the transport sector
have a negative influence on PM2.5 concentrations in the developed
countries group (the coefficient of E_TS is 0.036).
The panel Granger causality test results are summarized in
Table S3 in the Supporting Information document and Fig. 5. The
results indicate clear differences in Granger causal links between
the variables for the country groups. Specifically, for the developed
countries group, the results indicate that changes in urban popu-
lation, CO2 emissions from manufacturing industry and the trans-
port sector cause temporal variations in PM2.5 concentrations.
Additionally, urbanization influences CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and the transport sector; meanwhile,
motorized vehicle travel demand also influences urbanization.
Similar to the developed countries group, in the developing coun-
tries group, urbanization, growing CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and the transport sector seemingly lead to
an increase in PM2.5 concentrations. However, the main difference
between the two groups lies in the causal relationships between
urbanization, manufacturing industry development, and the
growing demand for motorized transportation. On the one hand,
development is mutually beneficial in the developing world, where
R2 of regressions manufacturing industry development seemingly increases the de-
mand for motorized transportation. On the other hand, the demand
for motorized transportation seemingly does not affect urbaniza-
0.957
tion, but the opposite is the case in developed countries. Different
0.932
0.959 from the other groups, the increase in CO2 emissions from
0.943 manufacturing industry does not show a significant impact on the
change in PM2.5 concentrations, while urbanization and the de-
mand for motorized transportation likely play important roles in
the rise of PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, like the developing
countries group, urbanization appears to affect regional motorized
transportation and the associated CO2 emissions.
5. Discussion
Based on the results presented in the last section, the underlying
mechanisms through which urbanization impacts upon national
PM2.5 concentrations are discussed as follows.
Urbanization has a mitigating effect on PM2.5 concentrations in
developed countries. As shown in Table 2, the average share of
urban population in the developed countries group increased from
76.03% to 78.91% during 1998e2014 with a fitted slope of 0.174,
while PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 15.27 to 14.91 mg/m3
with a fitted slope of 0.122. By contrast, the CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry decreased from 37.69 to 31.63 mt (million
tons) with a fitted slop of 0.525. This finding is consistent with
two earlier studies of Levinson (2007), Shapiro and Walker (2018),
and several reports from the European Environment Agency (2018),
the Ministry of the Environment of Japan (2018), and Environment
and Climate Change Canada (2017), which found that environ-
mental regulations and improved pollutant abatement technology
have led to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial
production. Additionally, urbanization in most developed countries
has generally taken the form of urban sprawl, which has given rise
to higher shares of urban population but lower urban population

Fig. 5. Causality between PM2.5 concentrations(C_PM2.5), urbanization (Urb), change in share of manufacturing industry(E_MS) and transport sector (E_TS) in total regional CO2
emissions.

Table 2
Annual averages of share of urban population in total population, PM2.5 concentrations, and CO2 emissions from manufacturing and transport sectors, and their variation trends
in the four groups.

Panels PM2.5(mg/m3) Urbanization (%) E_MS (million tonnes) E_TS (million tonnes)

1998 2014 Slope 1998 2014 Slope 1998 2014 Slope 1998 2014 Slope

Developed group 15.27 14.91 0.122 76.03 78.91 0.174 37.69 31.63 0.525 74.72 72.00 0.059
Developing group 19.91 21.57 0.164 56.23 61.72 0.333 33.31 73.36 3.141 21.24 45.35 1.569
Underdeveloped group 25.71 26.42 0.157 26.53 33.13 0.256 0.78 2.21 0.556 1.60 5.27 0.653
Global panel 19.20 20.09 0.102 58.58 63.38 0.291 30.37 50.58 1.556 35.66 50.40 0.885
 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998
density (Puga, 1996; Angel et al., 2005; Borrego et al., 2006).
Consequently, most developed nations still have growing auto-
mobile fleets (OICA, 2018), but transport-related CO2 emissions
decreased with a small slope of 0.059. This finding could be
closely linked to the significant improvement in the fuel economy
of light-duty and hybrid vehicles in the developed world. According
to a study published by the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)
and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average fuel econ-
omy in developed countries, which is based on the metric of litres
of gasoline equivalent per 100 km (Lge/100 km), had dropped from
8.8 to 7.3 Lge/100 km between 2005 and 2015, with an annual
improvement rate of 1.8% (GFEI and IEA, 2017). However, our
results show that CO2 emissions mitigation in transport sector
seemingly led to a slight increase rather than a decrease in PM2.5
concentrations. This finding is closely associated with the diesel-
ization process that mainly took place in Europe (Cames and
Helmers, 2013; Krecl et al., 2017), which refers to the increasingly
common use of diesel-powered vehicles as a way to meet fuel
economy and CO2-reduction targets, since diesel-powered cars are
believed to be (much) more fuel efficient when compared to
gasoline-powered vehicles (Kahn Ribeiro et al., 2007). This tech-
nology shift resulted in 45 million extra diesel-powered cars
entering into Europe by 2011 as compared to the mid-1990s, and its
market share increased from about 10% to 36.8% (ACEA, 2014).
Despite about 20% less CO2 emissions per kilometer than gasoline-
powered cars, diesel-powered cars emit much more black carbon
that is the key component of fine particulate matter (NREL, 2004;
US-EPA, 2008; Cames and Helmers, 2013). As a result, millions of
diesel passenger cars emitted up to 20 times more particulate
matter when compared to gasoline-powered cars (Cames and
Helmers, 2013).
The rapid urbanization in developing countries over the past
decades seems to have seriously aggravated the increase in PM2.5
concentrations. As shown in Table 2, average PM2.5 concentrations
in developing countries increased from 19.91 to 21.57 mg/m3 be-
tween 1998 and 2014, with the biggest slope (0.164) among the four
country groupings. Meanwhile, the share of the urban population
increased from 56.23% to 61.72% with a slope of 0.333, also higher
than those in the developed and underdeveloped countries groups.
In addition, with the expansion of globalization, manufacturing
industry has developed rapidly in developing countries over the
past three decades (Quigley, 2008). However, this boom was fueled
by accelerated demand for energy, and subsequently, average CO2
emissions from manufacturing industry dramatically increased
from 33.31 to 73.36 mt with a great slope of 3.141. Meanwhile, with
intense economic activity and increasing household income,
motorized transportation grew rapidly and released a large amount
of air pollutants (OICA, 2018). Thus, as shown in Table 2, average
CO2 emissions from the transport sector increased sharply from
21.24 to 45.35 mt in developing countries. In this case, all of rapid
urbanization, thriving manufacturing industry and growing de-
mand for motorized transportation played strikingly important
roles in the growth of PM2.5 emissions. These findings are consis-
tent with some existing literature about the socioeconomic drivers
of PM2.5 emissions change. For example, Guan et al. (2014) and Han
et al. (2014) suggested that economic growth and urbanization in
China are the main factors contributing to the increase in annual
PM2.5 emissions. Kinney et al. (2011) pointed out that motor vehicle
traffic is an important source of particulate pollution in Kenya,
while little available evidence comes from a wider sample of
developing countries. In addition, although the average slopes of
the share of the urban population, CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and the transport sector in the developing
countries group are greater than those in the other two groups, all
indicators surprisingly have smaller impacts on PM2.5
995
concentrations. The possible reason is that, along with rapid ur-
banization and economic development, growing concerns about
fuel economy and environmental regulations, increasing in-
vestments in renewable energy, as well as technological advances
in energy-saving and pollution mitigation measures are likely to
partly offset the adverse impacts induced by urbanization, indus-
trialization, and motorized transportation (World Bank, 2018; GFEI
and IEA, 2017; UN Environment, 2016).
Compared with other groups, the annual average of PM2.5 con-
centrations in underdeveloped countries remained at a higher
level, increasing from 25.71 to 26.42 mg/m3 with a slope of 0.157.
Meanwhile, urbanization increased rapidly from 26.53% to 33.13%
between 1998 and 2014, with a slope of 0.256. CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and the transport sector also increased, but
are far less than that in the other two country groups. With regard
to their impacts on PM2.5 concentrations, it is clear that both ur-
banization and transport-related CO2 emissions seemingly have
greater influences on the change in PM2.5 concentrations when
compared to the developed and developing countries groups. One
of possible reasons could be the lack of appropriate government
regulations on atmospheric pollution from a large number of urban
poor households that highly depend on solid biomass for living,
including conscious policies, infrastructure construction and
advanced technologies in place (Petkova et al., 2013; Schwela and
Haq, 2013; Kgabi, 2012; Thambiran and Diab, 2011). Particularly,
with rapid population immigration to cities, unreliable public en-
ergy and transport systems lead to a high dependence on tradi-
tional fuels and private cars (Putti, 2011). But low purchasing
power, lack of stringent emission controls, and poor fuel quality
have contributed to an influx of used diesel-powered cars that can
generate ten times more particles than gasoline-powered vehicles
per kilometer driven (Rallis, 1988; Krupnick, 1991; Panyacosit,
2000; Brunekreef, 2005; Naidja et al., 2017), as well as persis-
tently high dependence on wood-based biomass (Im et al., 2003). In
this regard, urbanization seemingly does not produce a significant
improvement in living conditions, but leads to large numbers of
people living in congested and poorly serviced urban areas, which
in turn exacerbates the problem of air pollution (Satterthwaite,
2017a, 2017b; Nweke and Sanders, 2009; Doumbia et al., 2012).
6. Conclusion
The primary objective of this study is to systematically investi-
gate the effect of urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations in countries
with different levels of socio-economic development during
1998e2014. After building the framework, the study utilizes panel
data regression methods to perform the analysis. The main findings
show that urbanization has a significant relationship with PM2.5
concentrations but the magnitude of its influence varies among
different country groups. First, the response of PM2.5 concentra-
tions to urbanization is about 0.198 in the underdeveloped coun-
tries group, noticeably higher than that in the developing (0.152)
and developed (0.191) countries groups, very likely due to the
extensive use of wood-based biomass in urban households and the
increasing demand for older diesel-powered vehicles. For devel-
oping countries, urbanization and CO2 emissions from
manufacturing industry and the transport sector have a significant
positive effect on the increase in PM2.5 concentrations. Unlike the
underdeveloped and developing countries groups, urbanization in
the developed countries group has a negative impact on PM2.5
concentrations. This is likely associated with the tight environ-
mental regulations and improved pollution abatement technology
in manufacturing industry. By contrast, although the common use
of diesel-powered vehicles decreased CO2 emissions from the
transport sector, it likely increased PM2.5 concentrations.
996 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998
The insights gained from this study not only shed further light
on the impacts of urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations but also
bring awareness of broader policies implications about the trade-
offs between a reduction in PM2.5 concentrations and urbaniza-
tion for countries at different developmental stages. On the one
hand, it is impossible to mitigate air pollution without considering
the role of urban sprawl in developed countries, which is generally
characterized by low-density, monofunctional and usually car-
dependent communities. In this regard, policy makers and urban
planners in the developed world should emphasize the potential
for emission reduction in two elementary respects: density and
connectivity. In particular, policies to stop the expansion of urban
area and thus enforce land-use efficiency should be widely enacted,
such as “urban growth boundaries” and “form-based codes” plan-
ning approaches that have been increasingly adopted in the United
States and are worthy of consideration as long-term strategies. In
addition, a vibrant urban core may plausibly affect land use and
transportation patterns and thus may reverse urban sprawls and
reduce emissions from transportation. In this regard, renewing the
vibrant urban center seems to be a potentially sensible strategy for
promoting urban population to live compactly. In addition, rapid
switching from diesel-powered to gasoline-powered or electric
vehicles should be concertedly promoted in the developed world,
especially in European countries.
On the other hand, unlike developed countries, developing and
underdeveloped countries have large populations. Given the
continuous urban population increase and limited urban space in
these countries, developing public modern energy and transport
systems and implementing incentives to encourage the use of low-
emission clean energy and light-duty vehicles are probably effec-
tive strategies for reducing PM2.5 emissions from the residential
and transport sectors. Meanwhile, along with rapid urbanization,
industrial transformation accompanied by the emergence of
pollution- and resource-intensive industries has taken place, and
these industries are mainly located in developing and underde-
veloped countries. In this regard, it is essential for the governments
of developing and underdeveloped countries to enforce environ-
mental regulations, and encourage these industries to introduce
advanced technologies to improve energy use efficiency and reduce
pollution emissions in the production process.
Finally, the estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations adopted in
this study may be different from the real observations obtained
from monitoring stations. Their accuracy thus still needs to be
further improved. However, as the purpose of this study is to
investigate the different impacts of urbanization on PM2.5 con-
centrations at a large scale, these data can primarily meet our
particular research needs. Moreover, beyond the anthropocentric
emissions, the model applied in this study did not take the effects of
some important exogenous factors (e.g., agricultural ammonia
emissions and arid climate with frequent sandstorms) into account,
which may also affect the interannual variation of PM2.5 concen-
trations in Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Author contributions
Q.W., J.F., and K.Z. conceived, designed and implemented the
experiments; Q.W. analyzed the results and wrote the paper with
K.Z. and Y.W.; M.P.K. contributed to refining and revising the paper.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the four anonymous reviewers
for their valuable comments on the manuscript. This study is fun-
ded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant
Number: 41671126), and the Science and Technology Department
of Fujian Province (Gran Numbers: 2016R10325 and 2018R0030).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.086.
References
Ehrhardt Martinez, K., Crenshaw, E.M., Jenkins, J.C., 2002. Deforestation and the
Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Cross-National Investigation of Intervening
Mechanisms. Soc. Sci. Q. 83, 226e243. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.00080.
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association), 2014. ACEA Pocket Guide
2014-2015. https://www.acea.be/publications/article/acea-pocket-guide.
(Accessed 9 December 2018).
Angel, S., Sheppard, S.C., Civco, D.L., 2005. The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion.
World Bank, Transport and Urban Development Department, Washington, DC.
Antrop, M., 2000. Changing patterns in the urbanized countryside of Western
Europe. Landsc. Ecol. 15, 257e270. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008151109252.
APERC (Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre), 2007. Urban Transport Energy Use in
the APEC Region: The Trends and Options. APERC, Tokyo.
Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group at Dalhousie University. Surface PM2.5.
http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id¼140. [Accessed 22 July 2018].
Bai, X., Shi, P., Liu, Y., 2014. Society: Realizing China's urban dream. Nat. News 509,
158. https://doi.org/10.1038/509158a.
Borrego, C., Martins, H., Tchepel, O., Salmim, L., Monteiro, A., Miranda, A.I., 2006.
How urban structure can affect city sustainability from an air quality
perspective. Environ. Model. Softw 21, 461e467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
envsoft.2004.07.009.
Boys, B.L., Martin, R.V., van Donkelaar, A., MacDonell, R., Hsu, N.C., Cooper, M.J.,
Yantosca, R.M., Lu, Z., Streets, D.G., Zhang, Q., Wang, S., 2014. Fifteen-year global
time series of satellite-derived fine particulate matter. Environ. Sci. Technol. 10,
1021/es502113pp. https://doi.org/10.1021/es502113p.
Briggs, D.J., de Hoogh, C., Gulliver, J., Wills, J., Elliott, P., Kingham, S., Smallbone, K.,
2000. A regression-based method for mapping traffic-related air pollution:
application and testing in four contrasting urban environments. Sci. Total En-
viron. 253, 151e167. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00429-0.
Brook, R.D., Rajagopalan, S., Pope, C.A., Brook, J.R., Bhatnagar, A., Diez-Roux, A.V.,
Holguin, F., Hong, Y., Luepker, R.V., Mittleman, M.A., Peters, A., Siscovick, D.,
Smith, S.C., Whitsel, L., Kaufman, J.D., American Heart Association Council on
Epidemiology and Prevention, Council on the Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease,
Council on Nutrition, Physical Activity and Metabolism, 2010. Particulate matter
air pollution and cardiovascular disease: An update to the scientific statement
from the American Heart Association. Circulation 121, 2331e2378. https://doi.
org/10.1161/CIR.0b013e3181dbece1.
Brunekreef, B., 2005. Out of Africa. Occup. Environ. Med. 62 (6), 351e352. https://
doi.org/10.1136/oem.2005.019927.
Cames, M., Helmers, E., 2013. Critical evaluation of the European diesel car boom -
global comparison, environmental effects and various national strategies. En-
viron. Sci. Eur. 25, 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/2190-4715-25-15.
Canning, D., Pedroni, P., 2008. Infrastructure, Long-Run Economic Growth and
Causality Tests for Cointegrated Panels. Manch. Sch. 76, 504e527. https://doi.
org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01073.x.
Chace, J.F., Walsh, J.J., 2006. Urban effects on native avifauna: a review. Landsc.
Urban Plann. 74, 46e69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.08.007.
Chan, C., Yao, X., 2008. Air pollution in mega cities in China. Atmos. Environ. 42,
1e42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.09.003.
Chen, M., Ye, C., Zhou, Y., 2014. Comments on Mulligan's Revisiting the urbanization
curve. Cities 41, S54eS56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.10.006.
Cole, M.A., 2007. Corruption, income and the environment: An empirical analysis.
Ecol. Econ. 62, 637e647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.08.003.
De Smith, M.J., Goodchild, M.F., Longley, P., 2009. Geospatial analysis: a compre-
hensive guide to principles, techniques and software tools. Matador, Leicester.
Doumbia, E.H.T., Liousse, C., Galy-Lacaux, C., Ndiaye, S.A., Diop, B., Ouafo, M.,
Assamoi, E.M., Gardrat, E., Castera, P., Rosset, R., Akpo, A., Sigha, L., 2012. Real
time black carbon measurements in West and Central Africa urban sites. Atmos.
Environ. 54, 529e537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.005.
Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2017. Canadian Environmental Sustain-
ability Indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions. https://www.ec.gc.ca/
indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang¼En&n¼FBF8455E-1. (Accessed 2
December 2018).
European Environment Agency, 2018. Industrial pollution in Europe. https://www.
eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/industrial-pollution-in-europe/
assessment-1. (Accessed 2 December 2018).
 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998
Evans, J.S., Tosteson, T., Kinney, P.L., 1984. Cross-sectional mortality studies and air
pollution risk assessment. Environ. Int. 10, 55e83. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-
4120(84)90233-2.
Furtado, J.I., dos, R., Belt, T., 2000. Economic development and environmental
sustainability: policies and principles for a durable equilibrium (English). The
World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
880311468739765984/Economic-development-and-environmental-
sustainability-policies-and-principles-for-a-durable-equilibrium. (Accessed 2
December 2018).
GFEI and IEA (Global Fuel Economy Initiative and International Energy Agency),
2017. International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy 2005-2015.
https://webstore.iea.org/international-comparison-of-light-duty-vehicle-fuel-
economy-2005-2015. (Accessed 12 August 2018).
Grubler, A., et al., 2012. Urban energy systems. In: Global Energy Assessment: To-
ward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK.
Guan, D., Su, X., Zhang, Q., Peters, G.P., Liu, Z., Lei, Y., He, K., 2014. The socioeconomic
drivers of China's primary PM 2.5 emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 024010.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024010.
Gummeneni, S., Bin Yusup, Y., Chavali, M., Samadi, S.Z., 2011. Source apportionment
of particulate matter in the ambient air of Hyderabad city, India. Atmos. Res.
101, 752e764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.05.002.
Gurjar, B.R., Ravindra, K., Nagpure, A.S., 2016. Air pollution trends over Indian
megacities and their local-to-global implications. Atmos. Environ. 142,
475e495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.06.030.
Han, L., Zhou, W., Li, W., Li, L., 2014. Impact of urbanization level on urban air
quality: A case of fine particles (PM2.5) in Chinese cities. Environ. Pollut. 194,
163e170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2014.07.022.
Han, L., Zhou, W., Li, W., 2015. City as a major source area of fine particulate (PM2.5)
in China. Environ. Pollut. 206, 183e187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.
06.038.
Han, L., Zhou, W., Pickett, S.T.A., Li, W., Li, L., 2016. An optimum city size? The scaling
relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM2.5) concentration.
Environ. Pollut. Spec. Issue: Urban Health and Wellbeing 208, 96e101. https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.08.039.
Hankey, S., Marshall, J.D., 2010. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-
vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Policy, Spec. Carbon Emiss. Carbon
Manag. Cities Regular Papers 38, 4880e4887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.
2009.07.005.
Hao, Y., Liu, Y.M., 2016. The influential factors of urban PM2.5 concentrations in
China:a spatial econometric analysis. J. Clean. Prod. 112, 1443e1453. https://doi.
org/10.1016/jn.jclepro.2015.05.005.
Huang, R.J., Zhang, Y., Bozzetti, C., Ho, K.-F., Cao, J.-J., Han, Y., Daellenbach, K.R.,
Slowik, J.G., Platt, S.M., Canonaco, F., Zotter, P., Wolf, R., Pieber, S.M., Bruns, E.A.,
Crippa, M., Ciarelli, G., Piazzalunga, A., Schwikowski, M., Abbaszade, G.,
Schnelle-Kreis, J., Zimmermann, R., An, Z., Szidat, S., Baltensperger, U.,
Haddad, I.E., Pre
vo ^t, A.S.H., 2014. High secondary aerosol contribution to par-
ticulate pollution during haze events in China. Nature 514, 218e222. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nature13774.
Hyslop, N.P., 2009. Impaired visibility: the air pollution people see. Atm. Environ.,
Atm. Environ. Fifty Years of Endeavour 43, 182e195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
atmosenv.2008.09.067.
Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels.
J. Econom. 115, 53e74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7.
Ji, W., Zhao, B., 2015. Estimating mortality derived from indoor exposure to particles
of outdoor origin. PLoS One 10, e0124238. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.
0124238.
Kahn Ribeiro, S., Kobayashi, S., Beuthe, M., Gasca, J., Greene, D., Lee, D.S.,
Muromachi, Y., Newton, P.J., Plotkin, S., Sperling, D., Wit, R., Zhou, P.J., 2007.
Climate Change 2007: Transport and its infrastructure. Contribution of Working
Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US.
Kgabi, N.A., 2012. Air quality policy and scientific research in Southern Africa.
Presented Air Pollut. 2012, 151e163. https://doi.org/10.2495/AIR120141.
Kinney, P.L., Gichuru, M.G., Volavka-Close, N., Ngo, N., Ndiba, P.K., Law, A.,
Gachanja, A., Gaita, S.M., Chillrud, S.N., Sclar, E., 2011. Traffic impacts on PM2.5
air quality in Nairobi, Kenya. Environ. Sci. Policy 14, 369e378. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.envsci.2011.02.005.
Kolokotsa, D., Santamouris, M., 2015. Review of the indoor environmental quality
and energy consumption studies for low income households in Europe. Sci.
Total Environ. 536, 316e330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.073.
Krecl, P., Johansson, C., Stro €m, J., Lo
€ venheim, B., Gallet, J.C., 2014. A feasibility study
of mapping light-absorbing carbon using a taxi fleet as a mobile platform. Tellus
B: Chem. Phys. Meteorol. 66, 23533. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23533.
Krecl, P., Johansson, C., Targino, A.C., Stro €m, J., Burman, L., 2017. Trends in black
carbon and size-resolved particle number concentrations and vehicle emission
factors under real-world conditions. Atmos. Environ. 165, 155e168. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.06.036.
Krupnick, A.J., 1991. Transportation and Urban Air Pollution in Developed and
Developing Countries. Transportation Research Record 1312. Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Lelieveld, J., Evans, J.S., Fnais, M., Giannadaki, D., Pozzer, A., 2015. The contribution
of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Na-
ture 525, 367e371. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15371.
Levin, A., Lin, C.F., Chu, C.S.J., 2002. Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and
finite-sample properties. J. Econom. 108, 1e24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-
997
4076(01)00098-7.
Levinson, A., 2007. Technology, International Trade, and Pollution from U.S.
Manufacturing (Working Paper No. 13616). National Bureau of Economic
Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w13616.
Li, G., Fang, C., Wang, S., Sun, S., 2016. The Effect of Economic Growth, Urbanization,
and Industrialization on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in
China. Environ. Sci. Technol. 50, 11452e11459. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.
6b02562.
Liu, J., Diamond, J., 2005. China's environment in a globalizing world. Nature 435,
1179e1186. https://doi.org/10.1038/4351179a.
Lu, D., Xu, J., Yang, D., Zhao, J., 2017. Spatio-temporal variation and influence factors
of PM2.5 concentrations in China from 1998 to 2014. Atmospheric Pollut. Res. 8,
1151e1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2017.05.005.
Luo, J., Du, P., Samat, A., Xia, J., Che, M., Xue, Z., 2017. Spatiotemporal pattern of PM2.5
concentrations in mainland China and analysis of its influencing factors using
geographically weighted regression. Sci. Rep. 7, 40607. https://doi.org/10.1038/
srep40607.
Ma, Z., Hu, X., Sayer, A.M., Levy, R., Zhang, Q., Xue, Y., Tong, S., Bi, J., Huang, L., Liu, Y.,
2016. Satellite-based spatiotemporal trends in PM2.5 concentrations: China,
2004-2013. Environ. Health Perspect. 124, 184e192. https://doi.org/10.1289/
ehp.1409481.
Meng, J., Liu, J., Xu, Y., Tao, S., 2015. Tracing Primary PM2.5 emissions via Chinese
supply chains. Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (5), 054005.
Merbitz, H., Fritz, S., Schneider, C., 2012. Mobile measurements and regression
modeling of the spatial particulate matter variability in an urban area. Sci. Total
Environ. 438, 389e403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.049.
Ministry of the Environment of Japan, 2018. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Report of JAPAN. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/
industrial-pollution-in-europe/assessment-1. (Accessed 3 December 2018).
Mol, A.P.J., Spaargaren, G., 2000. Ecological modernisation theory in debate: A re-
view. Environ. Pol. 9, 17e49. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644010008414511.
Monn, C., Carabias, V., Junker, M., Waeber, R., Karrer, M., Wanner, H.U., 1997. Small-
scale spatial variability of particulate matter < 10 mm (PM10) and nitrogen di-
oxide. Atmos. Environ. 31, 2243e2247. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(97)
00030-7.
Naidja, L., Ali-Khodja, H., Khardi, S., 2017. Particulate matter from road traffic in
Africa. J. Earth Sci. Geotech. Eng. 7, 389e304.
Northam, R.M., 1975. Urban geography. J. Wiley & Sons, New York.
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), 2004. Mobile source black carbon
emissions. Black carbon emissions and climate change: A technical workshop.
http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/nfti/pdfs/bc12_j_somers.pdf.
Nweke, O.C., Sanders III, W.H., 2009. Modern Environmental Health Hazards: A
Public Health Issue of Increasing Significance in Africa. Environ. Health Per-
spect. 117, 863e870. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.0800126.
OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), 2018. Vehicles
in use. http://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/. (Accessed 13 December
2018).
Pannell, C.W., 2002. China's continuing urban transition. Environ. Plan. 34,
1571e1589. https://doi.org/10.1068/a34201.
Panyacosit, L., 2000. A Review of Particulate Matter and Health: Focus on Devel-
oping Countries (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. ID 235099). Social Science Research
Network, Rochester, New York.
Pedroni, P., 2000. Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels (No.
2000e 03). Department of Economics Working Papers. Department of Eco-
nomics, Williams College.
Pedroni, P., 2004. Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of
pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econom.
Theor. 20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073.
Petkova, E.P., Jack, D.W., Volavka-Close, N.H., Kinney, P.L., 2013. Particulate matter
pollution in African cities. Air Qual Atmos Health 6, 603e614. https://doi.org/10.
1007/s11869-013-0199-6.
Pinault, L., Tjepkema, M., Crouse, D.L., Weichenthal, S., van Donkelaar, A.,
Martin, R.V., Brauer, M., Chen, H., Burnett, R.T., 2016. Risk estimates of mortality
attributed to low concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter in the Ca-
nadian community health survey cohort. Environ. Health 15, 18. https://doi.org/
10.1186/s12940-016-0111-6.
Pope, C.A., Dockery, D.W., 2006. Health Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution:
Lines that Connect. J. Air Waste Manag. Assoc. 56, 709e742. https://doi.org/10.
1080/10473289.2006.10464485.
Pope, C.A., Burnett, R.T., Thun, M.J., Calle, E.E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., Thurston, G.D.,
2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine
particulate air pollution. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 287, 1132e1141.
Poumanyvong, P., Kaneko, S., 2010. Does urbanization lead to less energy use and
lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Econ., Spec.: Ecol.
Distrib. Conflict 70, 434e444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.029.
Poumanyvong, P., Kaneko, S., Dhakal, S., 2012. Impacts of urbanization on national
transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income
countries. Energy Policy 46, 268e277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.
059.
Puga, D., 1996. Urbanisation patterns: European vs. less developed countries. In:
Centre for Economic Performance, Discussion Paper No.305. https://diegopuga.
org/papers/dp0305.pdf.
Putti, V.R., 2011. Energy access for poor in urban and peri-urban areas e an
emerging challenge. Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme
(ESMAP). The World Bank, Dakar, Senegal.
998 Q. Wang et al. / Environmental Pollution 247 (2019) 989e998
Quigley, J.M., 2008. Urbanization, Agglomeration, and Economic Development. The
World Bank, Washington, DC.
Rallis, T., 1988. City transport in developed and developing countries. St Mrtin's
Press, New York.
Rodrigue, J.P., Comtois, C., Slack, B., 2017. The Geography of Transport Systems,
fourth ed. Routledge, New York.
Satterthwaite, D., 2017a. The impact of urban development on risk in sub-Saharan
Africa's cities with a focus on small and intermediate urban centres. Int. J.
Disaster Risk Reduct., Africa’s Urban Risk Resilience 26, 16e23. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.025.
Satterthwaite, D., 2017b. Will Africa have most of the world's largest cities in 2100?
Environ. Urbanization 29, 217e220. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247816684711.
Schwela, D., Haq, G., 2013. Transport and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa (policy
brief). SEI Policy Brief, York, UK.
Seto, K.C., Dhakal, S., Bigio, A., Blanco, H., Delgado, G.C., Dewar, D., Huang, L.,
Inaba, A., Kansal, A., Lwasa, S., McMahon, J., Müller, D.B., Murakami, J.,
Nagendra, H., Ramaswami, A., 2014. Chapter 12 - Human settlements, infra-
structure and spatial planning. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate
Change. IPCC Working Group III Contribution to AR5. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.
Seto, K.C., Golden, J.S., Alberti, M., Turner, B.L., 2017. Sustainability in an urbanizing
planet. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Unit. States Am. 114, 8935e8938. https://doi.org/10.
1073/pnas.1606037114.
Shapiro, J.S., Walker, R., 2018. Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining?
The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade. Am. Econ. Rev.
108 (12), 3814e3854. https://doi.org/10.3386/w20879201.
Shen, H., Tao, S., Chen, Yilin, Ciais, P., Güneralp, B., Ru, M., Zhong, Q., Yun, X., Zhu, X.,
Huang, T., Tao, W., Chen, Yuanchen, Li, B., Wang, X., Liu, W., Liu, J., Zhao, S., 2017.
Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 con-
centrations in China. Sci. Adv. 3, e1700300. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.
1700300.
Targino, A.C., Gibson, M.D., Krecl, P., Rodrigues, M.V.C., Dos Santos, M.M., de Paula
Corre ^a, M., 2016. Hotspots of black carbon and PM2.5 in an urban area and re-
lationships to traffic characteristics. Environ. Pollut. 218, 475e486. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.07.027.
Thambiran, T., Diab, R.D., 2011. The case for integrated air quality and climate
change policies. Environ. Sci. Policy 14, 1008e1017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
envsci.2011.08.002.
Timmermans, R., Kranenburg, R., Manders, A., Hendriks, C., Segers, A., Dammers, E.,
Denier van der Gon, H., Schaap, M., Dammers, E., Zeng, L., Wang, L., Liu, Z., 2017.
Source apportionment of PM2.5 across China using LOTOS-EUROS. Atmos. En-
viron. 164, 370e386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.06.003.
UN Environment (The United Nations Environment), 2016. Air Pollution: Africa's
Invisible, Silent Killer. http://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/
air-pollution-africas-invisible-silent-killer-1. (Accessed 13 December 2018).
UN-DESA (Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations), 2018a.
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018 Statistical Annex. https://www.
un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/
2018wesp_datatables.xlsx.
UN-DESA (Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations), 2018b.
2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. https://www.un.org/
development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-
prospects.html. (Accessed 16 September 2018).
US-EPA(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), 2008. Analysis of particulate matter
emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles in Kansas city. http://www.epa.gov/
otaq/emission-factors-research/420r08010.pdf.
van Donkelaar, A., Martin, R.V., Brauer, M., Boys, B.L., 2015. Global fine particulate
matter concentrations from satellite for long-term exposure assessment. En-
viron. Health Perspect. 123, 135e143. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408646.
van Donkelaar, A., Martin, R.V., Brauer, M., Hsu, N.C., Kahn, R.A., Levy, R.C.,
Lyapustin, A., Sayer, A.M., Winker, D.M., 2016. Global Estimates of Fine Partic-
ulate Matter using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Informa-
tion from Satellites, Models, and Monitors. Environ. Sci. Technol. 50,
3762e3772. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b05833.
Villalobos-Pietrini, R., Hern
andez-Mena, L., Amador-Mun ~ oz, O., Munive-Colín, Z.,
Bravo-Cabrera, J.L., Go
mez-Arroyo, S., Frías-Villegas, A., Waliszewski, S., Ram-
írez-Pulido, J., Ortiz-Mun ~ iz, R., 2007. Biodirected mutagenic chemical assay of
PM(10) extractable organic matter in Southwest Mexico City. Mutat. Res. 634,
192e204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mrgentox.2007.07.004.
Wang, Q., 2014. Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in China. Energy
Policy 65, 332e339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.005.
Wang, Y., Zhang, R., Saravanan, R., 2014. Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-
latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis.
Nat. Commun. 5, 3098. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4098.
Wang, L., Liu, Z., Sun, Y., Ji, D., Wang, Y., 2015. Long-range transport and regional
sources of PM2.5 in Beijing based on long-term observations from 2005 to 2010.
Atmos. Res. 157, 37e48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.003.
Wang, F., Meng, D., Li, X., Tan, J., 2016a. Indoor-outdoor relationships of PM2.5 in four
residential dwellings in winter in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Environ.
Pollut. 215, 280e289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.05.023.
Wang, Q., Wu, S., Zeng, Y., Wu, B., 2016b. Exploring the relationship between ur-
banization, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different provinces of
China. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 54, 1563e1579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
rser.2015.10.090.
Wang, S., Zhou, C., Wang, Z., Feng, K., Hubacek, K., 2017. The characteristics and
drivers of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) distribution in China. J. Clean. Prod.
142, 1800e1809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.104.
Wang, N., Zhu, H., Guo, Y., Peng, C., 2018. The heterogeneous effect of democracy,
political globalization, and urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations in G20
countries: Evidence from panel quantile regression. J. Clean. Prod. 194, 54e68.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.092.
Weber, S., Weber, K., 2008. Coupling of urban street canyon and backyard particle
concentrations. Meteorol. Z. 251e261. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/
0286.
WHO (World Health Organization), 2018. Air pollution. http://www.who.int/
airpollution/en/. (Accessed 27 September 2018).
World Bank, 2018. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/
products/wdi. (Accessed 27 September 2018).
Xu, B., Lin, B., 2018. What cause large regional differences in PM2.5 pollution in
China? Evidence from quantile regression model. J. Clean. Prod. 174, 447e461.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.008.
Yang, D., Lu, D., Xu, J., Ye, C., Zhao, J., Tian, G., Wang, X., Zhu, N., 2017. Predicting
spatio-temporal concentrations of PM2.5 using land use and meteorological
data in Yangtze River Delta, China. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 32 (8),
2445e2456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1497-6.
Yang, D., Ye, C., Wang, X., Lu, D., Xu, J., Yang, H., 2018. Global distribution and
evolvement of urbanization and PM2.5 (1998e2015). Atmos. Environ. 182,
171e178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.03.053.
Zhang, Y.L., Cao, F., 2015. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in China at a city level. Sci.
Rep. 5, 14884. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep14884.