The Political Economy of Pandemics, the case of

Morocco during COVID-19

1. Introduction
1.1. Background of the study

The toll of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in recent months is just the start of the
story. Although the rapid and unprecedented decline of manufacturing, commerce, and jobs may
be reversed as the pandemic eases, historical evidence indicate that for a century or more, long-
term economic effects may continue. Among these is a prolonged period of low real interest rates
that can last for two decades or more, comparable to secular stagnation. However, one positive
piece of news is that these prolonged cycles of low borrowing rates are related to higher real
wages and generate enough space for governments to fund stimulus initiatives to offset the
economic damage caused by the pandemic.

To date, research into the economic implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has
naturally center on the short-term impacts of strategies for prevention and containment.
However, it is important to consider what the economic environment would look like in the years
and decades to come, as governments invest in large-scale counter-pandemic fiscal programs. In
ways that are not yet fully understood, that landscape will shape monetary and fiscal policy. By
throwing light on their medium- to long-term economic impact, a look at past pandemics, going
back to the Black Death in the 1300s, will help fill this void. However, it is important to note one
critical difference when extrapolating from historical patterns. At times when almost none lived
to old age, past pandemics such as the Black Death occurred. Perhaps this period could be
different with today's longer life spans: COVID-19 mortality tends to impact elderly people
overwhelmingly, who usually no longer engage in the labor force and tend to save more than
young people.

Coronaviruses (CoVs) are a diverse family of zoonotic viruses transmitted from animals to
people which have symptoms of cold to more serious illnesses, such as a Middle East
Respiratory syndrome (MERS) transmitted from dromedary disease to humans and extreme

1
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) transmitted from civet to human beings. Some animals are
circulating with many known coronaviruses that have not yet infected humans. The latest
coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a new line of coronaviruses not yet detected by man with typical
signs of infection, COVID-19, respiratory signs, fever, cough, shortness of breath and dyspnea.
This disease can cause pneumonia, extreme acute respiratory syndrome, renal insufficiency and
even death in more serious cases.

Through allocating national resources, governments will boost economic growth and have a
direct effect on the well-being of people. In developing countries, this is particularly true where
the population is poor and relies primarily on the state to provide basic services. Political
incentives can, however, cause expensive distortions at the expense of public welfare. Although
it has been well established that distortions exist in the distribution of public goods and social
services (Golden and Min, 2013), there is very little data about how governments distribute
disaster relief efforts. However, disasters are a particular measure of government obligations. On
the one side, governments have the ability to influence voters by showing how effectively they
can respond to crises. In the other hand, the people have the opportunity to know the potential of
the incumbent government and thus ensure democratic transparency when they vote. Therefore,
knowing the efficiency and motivations for reacting to disasters is of vital political importance in
order to give governments the right incentives to behave properly in crisis times.

Political interests have been shown to guide recovery efforts in disasters such as earthquakes,
flooding and hurricanes (Garrett and Sobel, 2003, Reeves, 2011, Gasper and Reeves, 2012).
Health epidemics however have different repercussions for the way governments distribute
money, but are mostly unexplored. First, the existence of infectious effects could shift the
strategically allocated resources for ex-ante policymakers, as the response by the government is a
key determinant of the ultimate scale of the disaster. Secondly, and in contrast with other
catastrophes, the complex existence and length of health epidemics suggest that the costs for
people will likely be higher if recovery efforts are misallocated politically. Similarly, the 2019
Coronavirus Pandemic Disease (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that can spread to
individuals. The COVID-19 virus is a novel coronavirus, which was first discovered during an
epidemic investigation in Wuhan, China and quickly spread across the world to be the first
Coronavirus pandemic.

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The virus is mainly common among people who are in contact through respiratory droplets
caused by the cough or sneezes of an infected person. Taking a virus-contaminated surface or
object and then touching their own mouth, nose, or eyes may cause infection with COVID-19,
but this is not the main route of spreading the virus. Patients with COVID-19 suffer from
moderate to extreme respiratory illnesses with fever, toughness and shortness of breath
symptoms and new data for clinical features, treatment options and outcomes of COVID-19 are
available almost every hour.

Morocco registered its first case of COVID-19 in 01 March 2020, at a time when there was a
massive rise in reports worldwide, particularly in Italy, France and Spain. The second case was
identified four days later. After that, a new case was discovered every day from 11 to 13 March.
Each day from 17 to 18 March, 11 cases were then detected. 14 cases were observed every day
between 18 and 20 March. Every day, from 20 to 22 March, 19 cases were identified and 28
cases were reported every day between 22 and 24 March. Finally, from 24 to 25 March, 55 new
cases were added (Figure 1). French left-wing politicians Jean Luc Melenchon regarded the
response of Morocco as encouraging and claimed in his speech to the National Assembly in Paris
that "Morocco has done well to fight Covid 19 by commanding its textile industry to make
protective masks. The chairman of the Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee, Antonio Gutiérrez
Limones, declared the Moroccan response to be successful and effective in neighboring Spain:
"Morocco has opened a large field hospital in Africa that has completed more than 700 beds in
two weeks, while more than 83 million masks have to date been produced."

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 Figure 1. Evolution of COVID-19 cases overtime in Morocco (10)

The government of Morocco has faced numerous challenges. In one part, COVID-19 infection
spreads rapidly. On the other hand, the challenging task of sensitizing people to the critical
situation while simultaneously preventing panic and persuading people of the concept of
containment considering its economic implications for households. With its experience in
combating the pandemic in particular H1N1 pandemics in 2009, the Moroccan government
launched the National Coronavirus Infection Detection and Response Plan whose objectives: (1)
prevent the entry into the national MERS-CoV territory; (2) identify cases early and contain
spread. This paper examines the political economy of Morocco during COVID-19 in the political
economy of pandemics.

1.2. Research Problem

Due to the global spread of COVID-19, each country has been adversely affected. Last year, in
early March, the International Finance Institute said that worldwide economic growth may prove
to be as poor as 1 percent, even before supply agreements for stable prices were concluded
between the OPEC club and Morocco. The problem of this study is i) how Morocco regulates the
spread of COVID-19 and maintains social distance; (ii) the extent of transmission of diseases,
their efficacy and their compliance with social distance; (iii) the political economic impacts of
the COVID-19; iv) political economic consequences of lockdowns, and v) governmental
response to the pandemic.

1.3. Research Question

Following research question will be addressed in this study

 How morocco minimize the spread of COVID-19 and maintain social distancing?
 How Morocco measures the degrees of disease transmission, effectiveness, and
compliance with social distancing?
 What is the Political economic impacts of COVID-19?
 What will be political economic consequences of lockdowns?
 What is the governmental response to the pandemic?

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 1.4. Objective of this study

This objectives of this study is to provide an analysis of political economy of pandemic in the
context of developing countries. Further, the main focus of this study, however, will be on
natural disasters, particularly the last one the COVID-19 epidemic, of which reverberations is
still being heard across the globe.

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 2. Literature Review

2.1. Brief History of Pandemics

The word pandemic is described by the World Health Organization and the US Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention as:

“A disease that happens across a wide variety of regions (several countries or continents) and
typically affects a significant proportion of the population.” (United States Disease Control and
Prevention Centers)

A pandemic is the type of infection that occurs across the human population affecting a large
number of people, most of a country, a whole nation, a continent, or a portion of the world. A
disease or illness is not only a pandemic because it kills many people or is widespread; it must
also be contagious. For instance, cancer is responsible for many deaths, but since the disease is
not viral or contagious, it is not considered a pandemic.

People have always been affected by illnesses, epidemics and pandemics, and more than 10
pandemics have been reported in the past 300 years (Jonung & Roeger 2006). In human remains
from ancient Egypt, the same diseases circulating throughout the world today can be seen. Since
ancient times, there have been many recorded epidemics and pandemics, and these may have
also led to the rise and fall of empires. For instance, European diseases played an enormous role
in the conquest of America, since the American population lacked immunity from European
diseases. It is estimated that in the century following the Spanish invasion, the population of
Mexico decreased from 28 million to 1.6 million due to frequent outbreaks of disease. Since
pandemics in societies have caused such a large number of deaths, they must have had
significant social and economic consequences. (Bell & Lewis 2004) Throughout history, many
pandemics have infected the human population, whether it be the earlier form of plague or
smallpox or tuberculosis or the recent outbreak of Covid-19. Four past pandemics and their

6
economic implications are the subject of the next chapter; three of these pandemics have
occurred in the modern era, and their economic consequences are especially interesting.

A list of pandemics that have occurred around the world is shown in the following table:

Table 1: Calendar of Plague and disease Pandemic Events Occurred Worldwide.

Name Time period Type / Pre-human host Death toll

Plague of Justinian 541-542 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, 30-50M
fleas
Black Death 1347-1351 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, 200M
fleas
New World 1520 – onwards Variola major virus 56M
Smallpox Outbreak
Great Plague of 1665 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, 100,000
London fleas
Italian plague 1629-1631 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, 1M
fleas
Cholera Pandemics 1817-1923 V. cholerae bacteria 1M+
1-6
Third Plague 1885 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, 12M (China and
fleas India)
Yellow Fever Late 1800s Virus / Mosquitoes 100,000-150,000
(U.S.)
Russian Flu 1889-1890 Believed to be H2N2 (avian 1M
origin)
Spanish Flu 1918-1919 H1N1 virus / Pigs 40-50M
Asian Flu 1957-1958 H2N2 virus 1.1M
Hong Kong Flu 1968-1970 H3N2 virus 1M
HIV/AIDS 1981-present Virus / Chimpanzees 25-35M
Swine Flu 2009-2010 H1N1 virus / Pigs 200,000
SARS 2002-2003 Coronavirus / Bats, Civets 770
Ebola 2014-2016 Ebolavirus / Wild animals 11,000
MERS 2015-Present Coronavirus / Bats, camels 850
COVID-19 2019-Present Coronavirus – Unknown ------
(possibly pangolins)

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 2.1.1. Plague (AD. 541-542)

Plague is a zoonotic infection that mainly affects rodents caused by a gramme negative rod
called Yersinia pestis, such as cocco-bacillus. From wild rodents such as marmots in Mongolia
and Siberia, ground squirrels in California and field rodents such as Bandicoot, gunomyskok,
Tatera indica and Rattus norvegicus in India, it is transmitted to house rats. Xenopsylla cheopis,
X, are the typical vectors responsible for the propagation of the disease. Hey, Astia, X.
Nasopsylla fasciatus and braziliensis. Notification, isolation, quarantine, diagnosis, care,
disinfection, immunisation, health education, and foreign steps are included in the prevention of
the plague. As had occurred in India in 1994, epidemics or pandemics of plague may be
devastating, which was not an occurrence by chance but favoured by all epidemiological
characteristics such as reservoir in the form of wild rats, vector in the form of fleas, nonimmune
population, etc.(5) The following table shows a list of worldwide pandemic events:

Table 2: Calendar of Plague and disease Pandemic Events Occurred Worldwide.

Sr # Name of Pandemic Year of Place of event Catastrophe

event event
PLAGUE AND OTHER DISEASES

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 1 Plague of 430 BC Athens A quarter of the Athenian troops
Athens(Typhoid and a quarter of the population
Fever) over four years.
2 Antonine Plague 165-180 Italian peninsula Killed a quarter of those infected,
(Small pox) and up to five million in all.
3 Plague of Cyprian 252-256 Rome 5,000 people a day were said to
be dying
4 Plague of Justinian 541-750 Egypt and 10,000 a day at its height, and
(Bubonic Plague) Constantinople perhaps 40% of the city's
inhabitants
5 Black Death 14th Century Worldwide 75 million people died
6 Third Pandemic 19th Century Started in China 10 Million People died in India
(Plague) and grabbed only
many continent

2.1.2. Smallpox (1518-1838)

Smallpox was one of humanity's biggest killers and was responsible for the death of one out of
every five children under the age of five before the vaccine was discovered. This disease is no
longer a public health concern and, as reported by the WHO, it was eradicated from the world by
October 1979. The epidemiological rationale for the eradication of smallpox is as follows:

 The lack of a reservoir for animals

 Absence of the stage human carrier
 Absence of sub-clinical incidents
 Rarity of the second attack
 Simple recognition in the clinic
 Slow transmission, which leads to containment
 Availability of a potent vaccine that is safe and reliable
 Collaboration globally.

Table 3: A list of pandemics events of Smallpox occurred worldwide:

Sr # Name of Pandemic Year of Place of event Catastrophe

event event
SMALLPOX

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 1 Smallpox 1518 Hispaniola Half of native
(Dominican population if Hispaniola
Republic and Haiti)
2 Smallpox 1520 Mexico Killed 150,000 in
Tenochtitlan alone
including the Emperor
3 Smallpox 1618-1619 Massachusetts Bay 90% Native Americans
4 Smallpox 1770 Pacific Northwest 30% of Native
Americans
5 Smallpox 1780-1782 & Indians Drastic Depopulation
1837-1838

2.1.3. Cholera 1817-1966

Cholera is a waterborne disease caused by Vibrio cholera, which is characterized by three typical
clinical stages, such as the stage of abundant watery evacuations, the stage of failure, the stage of
recovery or death. Verification, warning, isolation, diagnosis, care, disinfection, anti-
counterfeiting measures, immunization, health education, personal security and surveillance are
included in the prevention and control measures. The incidence of cholera has been divided into
three phases around the world, and the first phase (pre-1817) was restricted to India, especially
Bengal.

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 Figure 1: Disease Pandemic Events Occurred Worldwide

In the second era (1817-1823), six pandemics became recognized as a pandemic that all started
in India and spread to several continents, including South East Asia, China, the Middle East, the
USSR, Europe and Africa. The third stage, which started in 1923, was again limited to India and
the East. The fourth phase of the cholera pandemic started in 1961 and the seventh outbreak of
the pandemic was continuing. In 1961 the seventh phase of the pandemic started in Indonesia
with an endemic concentration. The worst part of this pandemic was that it impacted many
portions of all continents with the exception of America in 1970. 98% of all cholera cases
occurred in the Indian Subcontinent, which includes India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, beginning

11
in 1948. The more extreme classical types of cholera are now uncommon, and usually diarrhoea
is presented.
Table 4: A list of pandemics events of Cholera occurred worldwide:
Sr # Name of Pandemic event
CHOLERA
1 1st Cholera Pandemic
2 2nd Cholera Pandemic
3 3rd Cholera Pandemic
4 4th Cholera Pandemic
5 An Outbreak of Cholera
6 5th Cholera Pandemic
7 6th Cholera Pandemic
8 7th Cholera Pandemic
Year of event Place of event Catastrophe
1816–1826 Started in Indian 10,000 British troops and
Subcontinent, later spread countless Indians died
to China, Indonesia and
Caspian Sea
1829–1851 Russia, Hungary, Hungary (about 100,000
Germany, London, deaths), more than 55,000
France, Canada, US, persons died in the UK and
Pacific coast of North many more in different parts
America of the globe
1852–1860 Mainly Russia Over a million deaths
1863–1875 Mostly in Europe and At least 30,000 of the 90,000
Africa Mecca pilgrims fell victim to
the disease
1866 North America 50,000 Americans were died
1881–1896 Europe, America, Russia, 250,000 lives in Europe, at
Spain, Japan, Persia least 50,000 in Americas,
267,890 lives in Russia,
120,000 in Spain, 90,000 in
Japan, 60,000 in Persia were
lost
1899–1923 Russia More than 500,000 people
died of cholera during the first
quarter of the 20th century
1962–66 Indonesia, Bangladesh, -----
India, USSR
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 2.1.4. Influenza (1889-2009)

Influenza is an infectious disease of the RNA viruses of the bird and mammalian families of
Orthomyxoviridae. The typical symptoms are chills, fever, runny nose, sore throat, muscle pain,
headache (often severe) and coughing, fatigue/weakness and general discomfort. The 2009
H1N1 pandemic is a true flag. The new global mortality estimate in Lancet reveals that between
151,700 and 575,400 deaths worldwide.

In this study, 80 percent of 2009 H1N1 deaths are reported in people younger than 65, different
from normal seasonal influenza epidemics in which 80-90 percent of deaths are estimated to
occur in people 65 years and older. In order to illustrate the effects of shifts in the age
distribution of influenza deaths to younger age groups during the pandemic, researchers
calculated the number of lifetime deaths attributed to H1N1-related deaths in 2009.

Table 5: The following table shows a list of pandemics events of Influenza occurred worldwide:

Sr # Name of Year of event Place of event Catastrophe

Pandemic event
INFLUENZA
1 Russian Flu 1889-1890 Uzbekistan and other About 1 million people died in this
parts of North America pandemic
2 Spanish Flue 1918-1919 Worldwide pandemic of 500 million people were affected
all continents
3 Asian Flue 1957-1958 Started in China and 2 million deaths globally
then other parts of the
globe including US
4 Hong Kong Flue 1968-1969 First detected in Hong Killed one million people worldwide
Kong and then
disseminated to other
parts of the globe
5 H1N1 2009 Many parts of the globe 151,700 to 575,400 people perished
from world and a disproportionate
number of deaths occurred in Southeast
Asia and Africa

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 2.1.5. Epidemics of the 21st century

After taking a look at all the epidemics of the last two millennia, we have now come to the
twenty first century. Science has progressed a lot, new drugs have been discovered and public
health measures are also in place in most of the world. Under such circumstances, we would like
to think that epidemics are a thing of the past and something to be read only in history books. But
we would be wrong. Epidemics continue to be as common as before.

The table below (Table 6) will mention some of these recent disease outbreaks. As this table
makes clear, various types of diseases, from vector borne (like plague) to contact-dependent
infections (like Ebola) have been the scourge of mankind in this century. The question at hand
now is this: have things changed for better or for worse? Epidemics are flaring up with ominous
regularity at some corner or another. Earlier, such disease outbreaks remained localized. But with
marked improvement in international travel, a disease outbreak anywhere in the world can now
spread within days to remote corners. This is why now is the time to remain extra vigilant and
never lower the guard against these microbes. Is climate change to blame? Is increased
consumption of exotic meat the reason? The causes are still under speculation (Table 6).

Table 6: Epidemics after 2000 C.E:

Disease Time Regions affected Number Casualties

affected
SARS 2002-3 26 countries including China 8098 774
MERS 2012 27 countries including UAE 2494 858
and Korea
Ebola 2014-16 West Africa, including 28, 652 11325
Liberia
Swine Flu 2009-10 Global 1.6 million+ 18449
Plague 2017 Madagascar 2119 171
Cholera 2010 Haiti 665, 000 8183
Dengue 2006 India 3163+ 50+
Coronavirus 2020 Global More than 4.2 293 000 (Till
million May 13/2020)

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 2.2. The political economy of global disasters/ Pandemics

The outbreaks of infectious diseases can easily cross borders to endanger economic and regional
stability, as epidemics of HIV, H1N1, H5N1 and SARS have been shown (Verikios, Sullivan,
Stojanovski, Giesecke, & Woo, 2015). In addition to the often fatal weakening effects for those
affected directly, pandemics have a number of negative social, economic and political
consequences (Davies, 2013a).

"The impact of pandemic influenza i.e. H1N1 was not only concerned with mortality in 2009,
but also with animal welfare, agriculture, education, transport, tourism and financial systems.
Briefly, a pandemic threatens all facets of the social and economic fabric" (Drake, Chalabi, &
Coker, 2012). For example, in 2003 and 2015, the SARS and Ebola pandemics in China and
West Africa affected both the economies and social order, causing death and disease. Ebola and
other pandemics have decreased the quality of life of families and communities, and Ebola
disrupted main services such as schooling, transportation and tourism, cut the economy of West
Africa, and isolated people, too, because the global effort to avoid this epidemic impacted people
outside Africa (Nabarro & Wannous, 2016).

2.2.1. Health effects

Pandemics have affected millions of people, causing extreme illness and thousands of deaths in a
large population. Infectious diseases, like pandemics, and emerging infectious diseases, could
contribute to high morbidity and mortality worldwide and could potentially account for a quarter
to a third of the world's deaths (Verikios et al., 2015).

In developing countries both pandemics and infectious diseases have the ability to kill many
people, and there is a 5 to 10 percent risk of death (Kern, 2016). During the 2003 SARS
outbreak, more than 8000 people were infected, with over 700 deaths worldwide (almost 9
percent) in just 6 months (Wong & Leung, 2007). Influenza is one of the most dangerous
illnesses of the pandemic. Outbreaks of influenza can lead to severe morbidity and mortality. The
high incidence and death rate of influenza pandemics is characterised by 250.000–500.000
deaths per year, fast and wide-spread transmission (WHO 2004).

A large number of people have been killed worldwide by recent influenza pandemics,
contributing to an estimated 8,870–18,300 deaths in 2009– 2010 (Prager, Wei, & Rose, 2016).

15
For example, in May 2009, a new H1N1 virus capable of human-human transmission emerged
from Mexico (Verikios et al., 2015). The WHO announced 182,166 confirmed cases of influenza
A/H1N1, 1799 of which were fatalities in 178 countries until 13 August 2009 (Rewar et al.,
2015).

In the U.S.A., The US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 43–89
million cases, 195–403,000 hospitalizations and 8,870‐18,300 fatalities resulted for the peak
season in the USA (April 2009–April 2010)" (Bhandari, Hartley, Lindsley, Fisher, & Palmer,
2013). In recent years, the probability of a human influenza pandemic has risen dramatically. For
example, in several Asian and European countries, H5N1 has repeatedly been able to infect
people (Fangriya, 2015). From late 2003 to late 2008, there were 387 reported cases of human
H5N1 infection, including 245 deaths, with an average fatality rate of approximately 63 per cent
globally. (Enemark, 2009). 2009.

Another major pandemic could easily be the H5N1. With the advent of the zoonotic influenza A
(H7N9) virus in China, renewed fears about the potential for an avian influenza strain pandemic
have emerged. The outbreak of H7N9 has caused more than 600 human infections, about 30%
mortality (Su&He 2015), with the pandemic potential of the H7N9 virus (Tanner, TOTH, &
Gundlapalli, 2015). Other big therapies have recently been the Dengue and Ebola pandemics.
The incidence of the serious and lethal form of Dengue in developed countries has risen
dramatically.

The dengue epidemics of 2015–2016 were the worst in Latin America's history. The first cases in
Brazil were reported in May 2015, causing over 1.5 million cases until December 2015. In
March 2016, at least 34 countries participated (Troncoso, 2016). The outbreak of Ebola in West
Africa was an ongoing international public health emergency. In October 2015, WHO reported
28,581 confirmed, likely and suspected Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), with 11,299 deaths in
Western Africa countries (Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone). The reported death rate was 40 percent
(Nabarro & Wannous, 2016). More than 11,000 people were killed by the Ebola zoonotic
"spillover" reaction in nine countries (A. G. Ross, Crowe, & Tyndall, 2015).

2.2.2. The economic impacts

Pandemic influenza poses a significant threat not only to the world's people, but also to their
economies. The effect of economic loss will contribute to economic instability. The

16
consequences are direct costs, long-term costs and indirect costs. The direct costs for treating the
outbreak of the disease may be very high. The Ebola epidemic, for example, has severely
affected the economy in West Africa. The outbreak of Ebola in Sierra Leone cost USD 6 billion
in 2015 in direct costs (hospitals, personnel, drugs, etc.) and the direct costs alone equate to three
years of funding for the WHO (Gostin & Friedman, 2015). Economic losses of USD 1.6 billion
were estimated for the three countries compared with the economic growth of 2014 (Kern, 2016).

The Commission's Global Health Risk Framework (GHRF) reports that, every year, average
outbreaks of infectious diseases cost the world about $60 billion in direct costs (Maurice, 2016).
There is also a severe long-term strain. One of the biggest burdens is the absence of the profits of
the deceased. Prager, Wei et al (2016) estimated the economic loss of an influenza pandemic in
the U.S. to be USD 90-220 billion, 80 per cent of which comes from the predicted income for
people dying (Prager et al., 2016). McKibben and Sidorenko (2006) calculated that the economic
costs of a pandemic influenza range from USD 374 billion to USD 7.3 billion in a mild pandemic
for a big pandemic (MacKellarSource:, 2007). The mathematical models show that a potential
pandemic of influenza will cost USD 71-166 (Rebmann, 2010).

"The last few years have seen at least six major outbreaks – pulmonary hantavirus, severe
respiratory syndrome, H5N1 influenza, H1N1 influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and
Ebola virus, which, according to World Bank calculations, cost more than $2 billion worldwide"
(Maurice, 2016). Indirect costs are also high. They have anything that helps to reduce GDP. The
example of SARS, particularly its impacts on the region, affected China's annual GDP in 2003
by 1% and South East Asia's GDP by 05% (MacKellar, 2007). In the 2003 SARS epidemic, Lee
and McKibbin (2004) projected revenue losses range from USD 12.3 to 28.4 billion in East and
Southeast Asia (Fan, 2003).

"In New Zealand, the Treasury examined an attack pandemic with a rate of 40% and a fatality
rate of 2%, finding that GDP would decrease by 5-10% in the year of the event"
(MacKellarSource:, 2007). Some economic sectors can have a greater effect than others. For
example, Prager Wei et al. (2016) predicts the aviation industry will lose approximately 20% or
USD 7.9 billion if U.S. citizens reduce their travel costs. Pandemics thus have immediate and
long-term consequences which can harm a nation's economic life for many years to come (Prager

17
et al., 2016). The psychological and economic consequences of inadequate airport screening had
a major impact in the 2003 SARS outbreak (Chung, 2015).

2.2.3. Social impacts

The social effects of pandemics can be severe, including travel restrictions, shutdown of
educational institutes, marketplaces and also of recreational centers. These are all likely to occur
if a pandemic with real potential for high morbidity and mortality occurs. Mobility of the
population is also a crucial factor. As global aviation has increasingly grown over the last two
decades, the possibility of global pandemics has increased with rising passenger traffic. Modern
and effective air travel resulted in a rapid transfer of SARS originating from Southern China to
more than 30 countries in early 2003 (Wong & Leung, 2007). Closing airports damaged the
economies of the regions affected. School closure is also seen as a first non-pharmaceutical
pandemic intervention because students are successful in spreading the virus. Timely closing of
schools and cancellation of public meetings was substantially associated with lower influenza
epidemic mortality in 1918 in the United States (Chen, Huang, Chuang, Chiu, & Kuo, 2011).

In the spring wave of 2009 pA(H1N1) pandemic, over 1,300 public, charter and private schools
closed in 240 communities across the United States (Navarro, Kohl, Cetron, & Markel, 2016).
School closure also poses many ethical and social concerns, in particular because the
intervention is likely to disproportionately impact families from underprivileged backgrounds
(Cauchemez et al., 2009).

Closing markets, particularly for zoonotic diseases, have been tried for some outbreaks. The
ending of live poultry markets for wholesale and retail was related to the cessation of H5N1 and
H7N9 zoonotic outbreaks (Peiris, Cowling, Wu, & Feng, 2016). This caused food supply
disruption in the cities.

It is difficult for people to find food and living items since the markets are closed. This has
brought about a long-term change in the diet of people. Following the outbreak of avian
influenza, the consumption of poultry products on the Chinese Jilin market dropped by more
than 80 percent on average (Zhang & Liu, 2016), affecting the income of many agricultural
workers.

18
Public games and athletics have been postponed because of public events. The elevated rate of
self-reported influenza-like disease in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was attributed to enforced
communication at work and the domestic crowding (Kumar, Quinn, Kim, Daniel, & Freimuth,
2012). "Fear created an ugly silence in some places in busy communities during the Ebola crisis
in West Africa (Folayan & Brown, 2015). The disease can leave long-term physiological effects
on people, which affects their livelihoods.

Zika in Brazil leaves a generation of neurologically-born children with extreme lifelong limits
(Ribeiro & Kitron, 2016). The decisions to reduce influenza outbreaks of Ebola were involved in
the tradeoff between the social costs of interventions and the cost of the uncontrolled spread of
the virus (Prieto & Das, 2016).

2.2.4. Security impacts

A pandemic influenza protection hazard that is not a recent phenomenon. Global security is
endangered by life and economic stability pandemics (Maurice, 2016). Pandemics are no longer
just public health and clinical medicine problem, but a social problem, a sustainability issue and
a global security problem (Castillo-Chavez et al., 2015). In the beginning of 2016, the
Commission on a Public Health Risk System (GHRF) released a book called "The Neglected
Dimension of Global Security – a Framework for Crises Against Infectant Diseases." A central
declaration sounds like this: "Pandemics are wrecking human lives and livelihoods, as are
conflicts, financial crises. Pandemic prevention and response should therefore be viewed as an
integral concept of national as well as global security – not just health." (Kern, 2016).

Bioterrorism, including biological weapons and bioterrorist attacks, is also the product of the
advent of 'naturally occurring' infectious disease outbreaks as security practices and disciplines
have evolved dramatically over recent decades, which range from the more conventional (mostly
military) security of threats.

Government attention has been paid to military preparation for the effect of influenza epidemics
and pandemics since at least 1782 (Hirsch 1883, Parsons 1891), although the influenza pandemic
in 1918 was misnamed 'Spanish Flu' due to fear of indicating a military weakness. Influenza also
attracted a 'war outbreak' image after the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 (Francis 1947). At
the end of the First World War, the pandemic irrevocably linked these two disasters. It shows

19
that virulent influenza can be more damaging than war itself in human life (Beveridge, 1977;
Potter 1991).

Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever, a major cause of enterovirus complications and influenza-strain

complications, such as H5N1 and H7N9, has multi-state political change, civil strife, dormancy
and active armed war, and many states are emerging from armed conflict (Davies, 2013b).
During the Ebola virus epidemic, a police brutally criticised the public for breaking curfews
appeared in the news media. Invoking global health protection arguments could further promote
such violent response (Horton & Das, 2015). The UN Security Council adopted an
unprecedented resolution calling Ebola a danger to global security and stability, urging an
intensified response and the end of the travel restrictions adopted by several countries (Gostin &
Friedman, 2015).

2.3. The Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

The Chinese authorities told WHO on 31 December 2019 of a new strain of coronavirus not
previously identified in humans. The virus was first discovered in Wuhan, China and was
probably caused by animals, perhaps bats or pangolins, from which it sprang into human beings.
This latest strain of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, triggers a COVID-19 disease. (Andersen and
others 2020).

The virus is transmitted by respiratory goutlets and incubation is 2 to 14 days. Symptoms vary
between mild and extreme. Moderate signs include fever, cough, and shortness of breath,
weakness and muscle pain. Severe signs include pneumonia, syndrome of acute respiratory
failure, septic shock and sepsis. These signs can be fatal and there is no cure or vaccine as of
April 2020. (Germany & Scholz 2020).

Most infected people develop mild to moderate respiratory disorders and do not need special
therapy. Elderly people, or those with ongoing medical conditions, are more vulnerable to a
serious disease. There are cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diabetes, obesity and cancer.
(World Health Organization 2020) A great deal of knowledge on the virus was either unclear or
uncertain at the time of this thesis. The current fatality rate of confirmed cases on 13 April 2020
is 6.17 percent with 1.85 million cases confirmed and 114 300 deaths (John Hopkins University
2020). The fatality rate ranges considerably from 0.35% in Israel to 11% in Italy.

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Differences in testing possibly explain the variance in fatality rates among countries: countries
testing only extreme instances naturally have higher statistical death rates. Since the infection
may be asymptomatic and most mild cases go unnoticed, the actual mortality rate is possibly
much smaller. (BBC Future 2020) After censorship change, one study using data from mainland
China estimated the crude fatality rate to 3.67%. The same study reported the overall disease
death rate in mainland China to be 0.66 percent. This number contains undiagnosed cases and
offers a clear understanding of the overall seriousness of the disease. The fatality rate in the over
60-year-old group increases rapidly. For group of age 60-69, the infection 36 mortality rate is
estimated at 1.93 percent and 7.80 percent for people over 80 years. (Verity and others 2020).

2.3.1. Timeline in 2020, until April 15th

 January seventh. Chinese authorities have the virus established

 11 January. First death reported in Chin
 13 January. First case registered outside China
 23 January. Wuhan is under quarantine, a city of over 11 million people. The entire
Hubei province follows soon after
 30 January. The WHO declares an emergency globally
 1st February. Comprehensive reported cases cross 10 000
 The 2nd of February. First death recorded outside China
 10 February. 1 000 worldwide confirmed deaths
 14 February. Europe's first recorded death
 19 February. Outbreak in Iran starts
 21 February. Outbreak in Italy starts
 29 February. First death reported in the United States
 3rd March. Outbreak in Spain starts
 The 6th of March. The total number of confirmed cases is 100 000
 8th March. In Italy, nationwide lockdown starts
 11 March. The WHO declares the outbreak to be a pandemic and the USA forbids all
travel in 26 European countries
 13 March. National emergency in the United States is declared

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  17 March. In France, nationwide lockdown starts. The EU seals its external borders
 19 March. 10 000 globally confirmed deaths
 23 March. The national lockdown in the UK starts
 24 March. In India, nationwide lockdown starts
 31 March. More than a third of humanity is locked up
 April 2. Global confirmed cases amount to 1 000 000
 April. 100 000 global confirmed deaths
 13 April. Some European countries are starting to eliminate restrictions

Case statistics are available from a website for Coronavirus Tracking at John Hopkins University
(John Hopkins University 2020). Death statistics come from world metre graphs (World meter
2020). The New York Times (New York Times 2020b) and Business Insider posts are part of the
timeline (Business Insider 2020).

2.3.2. The economic effects

As the pandemic already has an ongoing impact, the economic consequences are not yet
completely understood. Nearly every day new information is collected and the figures shift from
week to week. As economic impacts slowly spread to a growing number of sectors and regions,
it is difficult to provide a clear picture of the situation. Information is also obsolete when written
and the impacts of the present and future are still uncertain. In this chapter I study the results of
the pandemic in selected categories with available information and estimates.

Although the pandemic is still probably in its early stages, it is already clear that it has had the
biggest effect on the economy from the pandemics of the last few centuries. Globalization and
increased travel have increased the pandemic's potential and its economic implications rapidly
spread across the world. COVID-19 has also provided the global economy with an unforeseen,
extremely rapid and massive shock, as policymakers have imposed restrictions. Certain
economic statistics, such as unemployment growth, are unprecedented.

This chapter was published in early April 2020. Older research attempting to model the possible
economic impacts of a pandemic have proven too optimistic for, at least, a mortality pandemic as

22
poor as COVID-19. I start with a very recent report, which also seems very positive, which
shows how fast expectations shift.

2.3.2.1. An early study

In early March 2020, when the pandemic really spread worldwide, Mckibbin and Fernando
published an article about the possible economic impact of the coronavirus. They simulated
seven different scenarios, four of which were expected to spread to a global pandemic. I will
concentrate on the outcomes of these scenarios, except for a case where coronaviruses are
expected to return each year. The first of these three examples predicts that 10% of the
population in China get the disease and 2% are fatal. The second case has a 20% attack rate and a
2.5% death rate. The third example has an attack rate of 30% and a fatality rate of 3%. Fatality
rates for other countries and attack rates are determined by an index of vulnerability, i.e. a
percentage of values for China in operation. A substantial part of this index is expended on
health care, which is the highest in the United States. (Mckibbin & Fernando Europe 2020).

In the first example, the projected negative market demand shock in all regions is around 1
percent. Depending on the region, the negative labour shocks are measured at 0.4 to 1.4 percent,
where Indonesia is hit hardest and the United States are least affected. It is estimated that
government spending will increase by 0.22-0.59%. Calculated pandemic GDP losses range from
0.7 to 2.5% in Saudi Arabia in Japan. Global mortality in the first year is expected to reach 15
million (Mckibbin & Fernando 2020).

The expected negative effect on market demand varies from 1.86 percent to 2.66 percent in the
second example. The negative labour shock is measured at 0.87-2.91 percent. It is estimated that
government spending will increase by 0.54-1.49 percent. Calculated GDP losses from a
pandemic in Saudi Arabia range from 1.4% to 5.7% in Japan. Global mortality for the first year
is predicted to be nearly 38 million (Mckibbin & Fernando 2020).

In the third case, the projected negative shock to consumption demand in Saudi Arabia is
between 3.35% and 4.78% in the US. Depending on area, the negative labour shock is estimated
at 1.3-4.56%, with Indonesia hit hardest and the United States less affected. Government
spending in developing countries is expected to increase from 0.98 percent in the United States

23
to 2.67 percent. Calculated pandemic GDP losses range from 2.4% in Saudi Arabia to 9.9% in
Japan. Global mortality in the first year is expected to reach 68 million (Mckibbin & Fernando
2020).

The death toll in these cases is estimated much higher than or is currently predicted, but the case
fatality and infection rate used in the study are plausible. Even in the best projections, the
projected rise in government expense and the decrease in consumption demand is very low. The
fatality rate of the model is also highly dependent on the level of health care expenditure, but the
effect of health care on mortality is minimal because there is no cure for the virus. For example,
the average mortality in the first scenario in the United States is 0.07 percent and 236,000 deaths
in the first year, since they are the highest in health care. China's mortality rate is nearly triple
that of the USA, with a predicted 2.8 million deaths in the first year. (Mckibbin & Fernando
Europe 2020).

2.3.2.2. Impact on global trade and GDP

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has calculated that the
direct effects of the pandemic shutdowns decrease production by 20-25% and consumer
spending by over 30%. These shifts would be much higher than the declines during the 2008-
2009 financial crisis and would include only the initial impacts on the industries affected. The
initial sectors of the OECD include travel, tourism, contact-intensive services, leisure, non-
important building work and transport equipment development. There are likely to be secondary
effects for other areas, especially if the situation is prolonged and demand decreases. (The 2020
OECD).

It is projected that the strict containment policies cause a 2% decrease in the annual GDP of each
month the policies are in effect. With a three-month shutdown, the annual GDP effect will be 4-
6%. Since the OECD only accounts for the original and direct impacts to the sectors affected,
containment policies may be worse every month than the previous one. External effects occur
more often with shutdowns continuing, causing lower production, demand and persistent
business failures to other sectors. (The OECD 2020).

The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects world trade in goods to decrease by 13-32% due
to pandemic disruptions. The decrease is estimated to surpass the global trade downturn triggered

24
by the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. There are two scenarios for the WTO, a positive one
and a negative one. With the positive scenario, global trade in goods declines by 13% in 2020,
recovery in the second quarter of 2020 and trade growth by 21% in 2021. Annual real global
GDP shift is -2.5% in 2020, and 7.4% in 2021. Recovery is high enough to carry trade volume
near pre-pandemic peaks. The positive condition assumes that the pandemic is a special and
rapidly regulated occurrence. (The International Trade Body 2020).

The more pessimistic scenario anticipates that world trade in goods will plunge by 32 percent in
2020 and rebound by 24 percent from a lower point of departure in 2021. The gloomy scenario
prolongs the pandemic and confusion prevails, leading to a decrease in consumption. This results
in a steeper decrease and a slower recovery. Annual actual global GDP shift is -8.8% in 2020 and
5.9% in 2021. The amount of trade before the pandemic is not surpassed again. (World
Organization for Trade 2020).

The OECD also warns of the dangers of protectionism: concerted global action against a
pandemic and free markets expand the opportunities for optimism. There is also a chance of
interference in the supply chain due to shutdowns, closed borders and protectionism. The OECD
calculations do not include the service sector that is most likely to be affected by the coronavirus
pandemic. Although the global exchange of services is a small proportion of the overall service
sector, the misery of the service industry directly affects the production and transportation of
goods. (2020 World Trade Organization).

2.3.2.3. Impact on employment

In Finland, the number of unemployed has increased by 20,000 as a result of the pandemic since
16 April 2020. 141,000 were discharged, although that figure does not include those temporarily
discharged. More than 420,000 workers negotiated future cooperation with their employers by 16
April. (Finland 2020 Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment).

The Department for Works and Pensions in the United Kingdom said that in the last two weeks
of March almost one million active applications for universal credit benefits have been made.
The normal application volume is approximately 100,000. Universal loan is a monthly payment
for workers with a combined employment benefit, housing benefits, child tax credit, and tax
credit (BBC 2020).
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In the United States, the record amount of the initial weekly unemployment insurance claims
before the coronavirus outbreak was 695,000. In 2020, the number jumped from 282,000 in the
week that ended on 14 March to 3,307,000 in the week which ended on 21 March. The next
week, which ended on 28 March, saw another total of 6,867,000 original unemployment
insurance claims. The high numbers persisted on the weekend of 4 April with 6,606,000 claims.
There were 5,245,000 claims for the week ending on 11 April, but the week had just 4 working
days. These figures are shown in Figure 3. (U.S. Administration for Jobs and Training 2020).

Unemployment is projected to continue to rise dramatically, and a stimulus plan offering

unemployed individuals $600 a week is likely to increase the statistics further. Unemployment
benefit is more than double the national minimum wage and exceeds the average salary in the
fields of hospitality and leisure by more than 50%. The same package also makes self-employed
employees, part-time workers and others who do not qualify for compensation eligible, and the
initial unemployment claims are therefore expected to continue to rise. (The 2020a Economist).

Some projections of the increase in unemployment in the United States predicted unparalleled
figures. In February 2020, unemployment was around 3.5% and the New York Times reports
that the current unemployment rate in early April was still around 13%. This will mean that the
unemployment rate has nearly quadrupled in two months, mainly in three weeks. With 164.5
million people working, that would increase from 5.76 million unemployed to 21.39 million,
which would increase to a whopping 15.6 million. (The Times of New York 2020c).

Some projections paint a picture much darker. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis forecasts
that unemployment in the US will hit 32.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, which reflects
a cumulative rise of 47 million people (Faria-e-Castro 2020). The unemployment levels would be
higher than in the Great Recession when unemployment peaked at 24.9%, and the overall
unemployment rate would be more than three times as high (CNBC 2020a). Goldman Sachs
initially projected that unemployment would hit 9% by mid-year but at the end of March revised
the figure to 15%. (CNN business 2020).

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 Figure 2: Weekly U.S. unemployment claims as a percentage of working-age population,
seasonally adjusted. Last updated April 16th, 2020. (U.S. Employment and Training
Administration 2020)

Since the Second World War, the International Labor Organization (ILO) has called the
pandemic the worst global crisis. Locking policies affected 81% of the world's workforce on 7
April 2020, and ILO predicted that global working time would decrease by 6.7% in the second
quarter of 2020. This equates to 234 million full-time people, assuming a working week of 40
hours. In addition, 38 percent of the world's population operates in the industries most impacted
by the pandemic. (Organization for Migrant Labor 2020).

2.3.2.4. Impact on the financial markets

With the COVID-19 becoming a pandemic, global financial markets are highly unpredictable,
with high average daily losses and returns. Most stock indexes lost around one-third of their
value between mid-February and the last week of March. The price drop and related uncertainty
are shown in Figure 4. The US stock market witnessed the fastest ever decrease in bear territory
(a 20 percent decrease). The shock was quicker than during the Great Depression or the global
economic crisis. Credit markets have seized and credit spreads have risen to 2008 (Roubini
2020).

Since then, the majority of indicators have once again begun to raise value by announcing
stimulus packages for governments and authorities. Growth has not been constantly influenced

27
by direr predictions and economic statistics. A recent article by Gormsen and Koijen predicts
potential dividends and forecasts that annual growth in the U.S. and 37% in the EU will be -27%
in 2020. The lower estimate for the projected shift in dividends is -45% in the United States and
-58% in the EU for 2 years. (Standard and Koijen 2020, Yahoo Finance 2020).

Price development of selected stock indices during the COVID-19 pandemic, as of April 6, 2020
(Yahoo Finance 2020).

2.3.2.5. Impact on the energy sector

The pandemic also affected the energy sector, especially oil and gas. The collapse of demand and
price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia fell to one-third of what it was early 2020 (situation
at the beginning of April 2020). For example, WTI Crude decreased from $63 per barrel to
around $20 per barrel. The estimated decrease in global oil demand in April is 20%, with six

28
million barrels a day falling in the first quarter. Overproduction combined with a sharp decline in
demand could fill all the global storage capacity by the beginning of May, causing prices to fall
further (Foreign Affairs 2020).

There is some hope for an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the moment of
publishing. This does not erase the fact that global demand is poor and would possibly stay low
for a long time. Long-term low oil prices will have a significant effect on oil-producing
countries. Russia balanced its budget on the expectation that a barrel of oil would cost $42, with
a budget balance price of $80 for Saudi Arabia. Reduced demand and prices are particularly
devastating for the shale oil industry in the United States, where the industry is associated with
2.5 million jobs, as shale oil has a high production charge (Foreign Affairs 2020).

2.3.2.6. Government stimulus during the crisis

Given that the pandemic forced governments to limit movement and industry, several
governments around the world have announced stimulus measures to offset the adverse
economic shock. Some of the packages released were high. Central banks in the U.S. and in the
Euro Area (European Central Bank) have stated their willingness to provide unrestricted
quantitative easing (Bloomberg 2020, The Federal Reserve 2020).

The specifics of many of the stimulus packages announced by countries are unclear and a
comparison between countries is difficult to make. The situation is also continually changing,
with more stimuli announced and information and quantities changing. Therefore a brief
overview of policies implemented by 46 various countries is very difficult to provide, and
stimulus packages for selected countries are shown in Table 7. For a more detailed list and
further explanations, I suggest you visit the IMF policy tracker.

Table 7: Size of stimulus in different countries as of April 9, 2020. Sources: IMF (International
Monetary Fund 2020) and CNBC (CNBC 2020).

Country Direct spending Loan guarantees, Combined % of GDP

asset purchases etc.
USA $2,4 trillion Up to $6 trillion 39.7%
UK £39,7 billion £330 billion 13%
Japan ¥108,2 trillion Not specified 20%

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 Italy €25 billion €400 billion 26.4%
Germany €204 billion €820 billion 32.2%
Sweden SEK 380-668 billion SEK 800 billion 23.6-29.3%
Finland €18,7-21 billion €13,2 billion 14.2-15.2%
EU €577 billion €870 billion 10.7%

2.3.2.7. Developing countries

While the pandemic has not yet completely expanded in developing countries, it still has an
economic impact. Many developed countries depend heavily on tourism and exporting goods,
including oil, which have already been severely hit by such industries. Since the beginning of the
year, commodity prices have decreased 37 percent overall, causing export revenues to decline.
(Conference of the United Nations on Trade and Development 2020).

At the same time, their currencies weakened 5-25% of the dollar. This has contributed to a rise in
import rates, and loans denominated in dollars have become more difficult to pay. The key
emerging economies' portfolio outflows were 59 billion US dollars over a period of one month
between February and March. As a result, risk premiums have risen and borrowing is
increasingly costly. (Conference of the United Nations on Trade and Development 2020).

Since 2007, gross public and private debt in emerging economies has risen from 70% to 165%
annually. With currencies falling and debt costs increasing, many countries risk becoming
insolvent and defaulting. High levels of debt often discourage developed world governments
from providing adequate economic support. If heavily indebted countries provide generous
assistance for the individuals and enterprises impacted, how will the debtors react? (The Times
of New York 2020a).

Developing nations are still badly prepared for a full-blown outbreak. They are underfitted and
lack capacity in their health systems, particularly for intensive care. Social distancing is
challenging in crowded urban centres, and basic hygiene without running water is difficult to
maintain. There is still no financial incentive for governments to create solid safety nets for the
unemployed (The 2020b Economist).

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The pandemic also has a huge impact on workers in developing countries. Around two billion
people worldwide, most of them in developing countries, work informally. Informal workers
lack social security and no wages whether they are sick or not. They have less access to health
services than normal employees and 48 work in low-paid jobs, which require contact with people
and are often affected by locks. (Organization for Migrant Labor 2020).

University of the United Nations (UN WIDER) has projected that the number of people living
under $1.9 a day would grow by over 80 million if the global per capita income drop 5%. The
overall number of people living on less than $5.5/day will grow by over 330 million, taking
world poverty back to its predecessor a decade earlier. If per person's income dropped by 20%,
the number of people living on a per day basis under $1.9 million would rise by $420 million.
The net rise in the number of people living with less than $5.5 a day is over $1.5 billion and the
degree of global poverty is the same as in 1990. (Sumner et al. 2020).

Positive factors can also restrict the effects of the virus. In developing countries, the population
appears to be young and thus better able to control the virus. Furthermore, rural areas are
possibly not so seriously impacted by restricted social interactions. The warm and damp climate
can also hinder the disease's spread (The Economist 2020b).

Conclusion

In human history there have been many big pandemics, and pandemic-related crises have created
tremendous adverse effects in the world's political economy, health, savings and even national
security. However, the word "pandemic" has a long history, many medical texts are still not
described and the meaning is still evolving. But there are some main features of a pandemic,
such as widespread geographical expansion, disease movement, press, intensity, high levels of
attack and exclusivity, low population immunity, infectivity and contagion that help us
understand the pandemics. The pandemic's negative effects are severe. Pandemics have affected
millions of people and have caused significant serious illness and thousands of deaths in a large
population. The coronavirus pandemic is yet another case in the long history of human battle
against microbes. In this next chapter, we will talk about Morocco, how Coronavirus reaches
Morocco and what policies they have implemented to mitigate the pandemic. What is the
government's position and what is society's role. How reliable and effective emergency response

31
would be a vital challenge for governments to handle epidemic outbreaks and a new and
potential pandemic effectively.

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