“Risk Assessment of the 2020 Tokyo

Olympic Summer Games for the

Australian National Athletic Teams”
Sponsor: Australian Olympic Management Committee (AOC)
Consultant: Student
Report Date: 22nd March 2020

MAN6301 -Project Risk Management

Abstract
This report presents risk assessment of the 2020 Tokoyo Olympic Summer Games for the
Australian National Olympic Athletic Team to the sponsors; Australian Olympic Committee
(AOC) from the team’s perspective. The information for this report has been drawn from past
events, existing literature, case studies and other resources. Part of this report, five main
categories and its sub-categories of risks have been identified and assessed which can have
direct or indirect impact on the Australian athletics team’s performance in the 2020 Tokyo
Olympics. This report is preliminary data collection report and a further detailed risk
management plan will be formulated at a later stage for AOC’s approval. In this report a
snapshot of risk identification framework has been provided outlining the risk probability and
it’s possible impact and the stage it may occur.
Table of Contents

1. Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................ 4
3. Findings and Data Analysis ............................................................................................. 6
3.1 Health ....................................................................................................................... 8
3.2 Mental Health............................................................................................................ 9
3.3 Practical Aspects ...................................................................................................... 9
3.4 Media ...................................................................................................................... 10
3.5 Environment............................................................................................................ 11
3 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 12
4 References .................................................................................................................... 12
1. Introduction

The Olympics is a leading international sporting event in which thousands of athletes compete
against each other from over 200 nations from around the world. The Olympic Games are held
every four years, with the summer and winter games alternating ("Olympic Games | History,
Locations, & Winners", 2020). Olympic games bring people together from hundreds of nations
and atleast 90% of its revenue is redistributed to support athletes and sports organisations at
all levels around the world ("IOC - International Olympic Committee", 2020).

This year Olympic Summer Games are hosted by Tokyo, Japan from 24th July to 9th August
2020 and AOC is forecasting Australia's team for Tokyo to be its largest and hopes to send an
equal number of male and female athlete (Larkin, 2020). Like any other mega-events, there is
a lot of uncertainties around these events and this year’s Olympics is no different, with the
coronavirus pandemic looming on our shoulders, impacting people and organisations globally.

A lot of effort goes in preparing and training for these games, and the main objectives of the
participating team is giving their optimum performance. As we know, only a small margin
decides between the winning and losing participant; therefore, any negative risk factor can
greatly impact on how participants perform. For this very reason, it is crucial for sponsors to
get a 360-degree review of the team and identify any negative risks, before and during the
event and find ways to mitigate them; without mitigation, risk will introduce chaos and failure
into a well-planned project (Royer, 2000) at the same time this is a great opportunity to identify
positive opportunity, explore and exploit them to the advantage of the team.

The primary purpose of this paper is to gather data and produce a risk assessment report for
the sponsor; Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), concerning risks associated with the
upcoming Tokyo 2020 Olympic games for the Australian Athletic Team. As part of this report,
a risk framework has been created, identifying major risks and their subcategories, obtained
from various sources such as journals, internet, books and news articles. This report is
presented to the AOC for their assessment and will be the basis for preparing a detailed risk
management for the Australian Olympic Athletics Team for the 2020 Olympics.

This report is based on a paper on Risk Management in Major Sporting Events: A Participating
National Olympic Team’s Perspective by (Hanstad, 2012), and other literature.
2. Literature Review

Due to the mere size and complexity of the event, risk sits at the heart of the Olympics for all
stakeholders involved such as the participants. According to the Australian standard (AS/NZS
4360: 2004, Risk Management) Risk Management is “the chance of something happening that
will have an impact upon objectives”. This is a short and concise definition of risk; however, I
believe the definition need to be expanded according to the industry. When it comes to mega
sporting events a broader definition of risk needs to be adopted. For instance, according to
(Royer, 2000), risk management is a process to maximise a positive outcome and minimise
the impact of negative outcome proactively rather than reactively by anticipating, identifying,
assessing risk and therefore, formulating appropriate actions to mitigate these risks.

While I believe to some extent this is an encompassing definition of risk, I also believe all risks
needs to be identified that may directly or indirectly have an impact on the performance of the
participant(s), as Olympics is all about performance (McCann, 2008). Secondly, it is not only a
process that needs to be done before the event takes place but instead it is a dynamic process
which needs to be looked at, at every phase leading up to the event, assessed and mitigated
accordingly.

So why emphasis is given on risk? According to Hanstad (2012) the consequences of turning
a blind eye to risk management; may end participation for an athlete and, in the worst case,
result in serious injury or even the death of an athlete, impacting Australia’s performance in the
Olympics, the sponsorship and reputation. Additionally, poor performance can also lead to
funding cuts for the Australian Olympic team (Rutherford, 2018)

In his paper, Hanstad (2012) has talked about five generic area of risk reduction, in relation to
Vancouver Olympic Winter Games from the participants perspective and these are; practical
aspects, health, mental factors, coaching and leadership and media. I believe Hanstad (2012)
has covered some of the major and obvious risks that can be faced by the Australian Olympic
team in Tokyo, 2020. However, it is important to note that Hanstad’s paper is based on
Vancouver Olympic team, in Winter Olympics, therefore risk identified, and management
strategy may or may not be relevant to Summer games or may have different level of impact
on the performance of the team.

There is a lot of the existing literature on risk and risk management from host perspective, but
limited information is available on, an exhaustive list of risks faced by athletes in the Olympics.
However, there are research papers, case studies and evidence from past events on various
individual risks that AOC needs to closely assess and have mitigation strategies in place.
A few commonalities between Hanstad (2012) and other researchers, such as the relationship
between stress and athlete’s mental state. Numerous psychological factors such as; positive
personality, motivation, confidence, focus and perceived social support from family, coaches
and teamates, can possible protect athletes from the effect of negative stress (Sarkar &
Fletcher, 2012).

Another overlapping risk is the relationship between media and athletes. There has been
evidence where poor treatment of media can have an immense impact on the Australian Team
therefore, this risk need to be closely assessed and relevant strategies to be put in place for
the upcoming Olympic games. In the article ‘Does the media impact athletic performance?’ By
U.S Sports Academy gives examples of cases where media has played either positive or
negative role in participants performance and in some cases in their career.

In study by Schwellnus et al (2016), athletes intense practice schedule makes them prone to
illness and injury. Acute illness Is another common risk that result in exercise reduction, affect
their performance, an interruption to training and even missing the competition altogether.
Illness can also increase the risk of serious medical complications and even sudden death
during strenuous exercise (Schwellnus et al., 2016).

One of the risk not mentioned is Hanstad (2016) is the risk of the environmental factors such
as climate, air quality, water quality, UV rays, which can have impact on outdoor sports in the
summer Olympics (Peirser & Reilly, 2004). For instance, high air temperatures and elevated
humidity are important environmental factors that affect the performance of Olympic endurance
athletes especially for the athletics team. Another study by McKenzie & Boulet (2009)
discusses the relationship between air quality and respiratory health problems that needs
managing especially for participants who already have respiration conditions such as Asthma.

Another risk that is mainly linked with the host country is, terrorism and security, this risk has
not been viewed from the lense of the participants. Sadly, in today’s world terrorism is prevalent
and if it occurs it can put athlete’s life at risk, causing long time psychological trauma and death
in some instances, therefore a risk that cannot be ignored by AOC.

After reading through various sources on risk management for athletes, I agree with Hanstad
(2012) that there is limited information available on risk management from participants
perspective in the Olympics. Furthermore, risks and the corresponding mitigation strategy for
a Winter Olympics might be different to Summer Olympics and how these can be managed.
Additionally, there is also limited research available on positive risks for such events, the
 importance and active exploitation of these risks and how it can help enhance conditions
resulting in optimal performance from the participants.

3. Findings and Data Analysis

Data for this report has been gathered from Hanstad (2012) and from various other sources.
There are various risks that are associated with the Olympics and they seem to be inter-related,
either directly impacting participant’s performance or indirectly, that needs assessing and
relevant strategies put in place for Tokyo Olympics in 2020. For instance, environmental risk
such as humidity not only causes health issues, but it also causes stress which effects
participant’s mental state and therefore impacting their performance in the games.

Findings of this report has been summarised in Table 1 and this is discussed at length in the
section below.

Project Phases
Project Phase

Phase 1: Preparation - Post Selection

Phase 2: Travel - Host Country

Phase 3: Pre-event - Host Country

Phase 4: Event
Phase 5: Recovery - Post Olympics

Risk Probability – what is the chance of the risk occurring.

Descriptor Definition Probability
High Event could occur at some time 51 - 100%
Medium Event will probably occur in most circumstances 10 - 50%
Low Event is expected to occur in most circumstances 0 - 10%

Source: (Kendrick, 2009)

Risk Impact
Impact
Description Example
Severity
Death or permanent disability, long term injury - unable to
High Performance is at risk
participate. Contract terminated. Severe Stress
Performance can be met but significant replanning Severe Injury, possible hospitalisation, impact reputation.
Medium
required Cause stress
Risk is an incovenience or it will be handled through Example: Minor injury or minor impact on performance which
Low
overtime or other minor adjustments can be rectified.

Source: (Kendrick, 2009)

 Positive or
No Categories Sub-Categories Project Phase Risk Description Likelihood Impact
Negative Reference Source
Illness resulting in poor performance and some cases dropping out of the 1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Phase 1, 2, 3 ,4 & 5 Negative Medium Medium
competition 2.(Schwellnus et al., 2016)
Illness/Infection
Contracting infectious disease such as Coronavirus & measles causing
Phase 2, 3 & 4 Negative Medium Medium to High 2.(Pshenichnaya et al., 2008)
hinderance to participation and cause death in some cases.
1 Health
Accidents during training phase causing injuries that may hinder performance
Injuries /Accidents Phase 2, 3 & 4 Negative Medium Medium to High 1.(Schlink, 2008)
during the Olympic games.
Eating the right nutrition enhances performance and strenghten athletes'
Phase 1,3 & 4 Positive Medium Medium 1.(Beck et al., 2015)
immunte system.
Nutrition
Phase 1,3 & 4 Consuming dietery supplements resulting in doping charges Negative Medium High 1.(Beck et al., 2015)

1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Phase 2 Over ambitious goals causing mental distress hence impact performance. Negative Medium Medium to High
2.(Sarkar & Arnold, 2014).
Goal Setting
Unrealistic goals increases motivation resulting in enhanced performance for 1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Phase 1 Positive Medium Medium
Mental athletes 2.(Healy et al., 2018)
2
Health Unrealistic expectation from stakeholders causing stress, anxiety and impacting
Expectations Phase 5 Negative High Medium 1.(Sarkar & Arnold, 2014).
overall performance.
Unadequate psychological support may result in participants unable to manage 1.(Sarkar & Arnold, 2014).
Mental Preparation Phase 2 & 4 Negative Medium High
stress thus impacting training and performance. 2. (Blumenstein & Lidor, 2008)
1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Phase 3 & 4 Poor living condition, unsanitary dorms causing health issues. Negative Low Medium
Living Condition 2.(Schmidt, 2016)
Phase 3 & 4 Living together resulting in bonding with others. Positive Medium Low 1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Practical Poor or uncordinated transport facility for participants resulting late arrival at 1.(Hanstad, 2012)
3 Logistics Phase 3 & 4 Negative Low Medium to High
Aspects training and events. 2.(Drozdiak, 1996)
Phase 3 & 4 Poor general security resulting in robbery, fear & Injury. Negative Low Medium 1.(Adhav, 2016)
Security
Phase 3 & 4 Terrorism causing death or life long injury. Negative Low High 1.(Richards et al., 2010)

Phase 1, 3, 4 & 5 Negative coverage resulting in stress and low morale to participants Netagive Medium Medium 1.(U.S Sports Academy, 2008)
Media Coverage
4 Media Phase 1, 3, & 4 Excessive media coverage increase athlete's morale Positive Medium Medium 1.(U.S Sports Academy, 2008)

Relationship Phase 1, 3, & 4 Poor media relationship impacting reputation Negative Medium high 1.(U.S Sports Academy, 2008)

Phase 3 & 4 Unable to acclimatise with the host country environment Negative Medium Medium 1.(Hanstad, 2012)
Acclimitasition
Phase 1,3 & 4 Training in the right condition can enhance performance Positive Medium Medium 1.(Dolci, 2020)
5 Environment
1.(McKenzie & Boulet, 2009)
Pollution Phase 3 & 4 Poor air quality, water quality and high UV rays causing health issues Negative Medium Medium 2.(Ward-Henninger, 2016)
3.(Downs et al., 2019)

Table 1: Risk Identification Snapshot

3.1 Health

Health is one of the risks repeatedly appearing in different literatures and other sources in
relation to athletes in the Olympics. Some of the contributing factors apart from hygiene factors
are; participants load, heavy training schedule, and travelling in different time zone can not only
lower athletes’ immune system but can also cause accidents and injuries (Schwellnus et al.,
2016). This is a negative risk overall with about 10- 50%, in some case over 50% chance of
happening and the impact can be medium to high depending on the severity of the illness,
infection or the effect of a drug.

Sub- categories:

• Illness & Infection – This can happen at any stage of the event. This can lead to
performance issues in participants and the possibility of psychological impact. AOC not
only need to consider the common illness such as cold and flu that participants are bound
to get, but also take into account the risk of athletes and support staff catching Coronavirus
– Covid 19, apart from making people really sick, it can possibly cause permanent scarring
in the lungs and liver demage if it spreads to the other organs in the body (O'Riordan,
2020). Severe illness has resulted in athletes droping out of the competition altogether. For
instance, in 2017, seven athletes who were competing at the world athletic championships
came down with food poisoning, and as a consequence a star athlete; Makwala qualified
for the finals later had to withdraw from the competition due to the illness (Young, 2017).

• Injuries and Accidents – Injuries and accidents depends on the severity; a small injury
can be fixed by first aid kit, but some injuries can have devastating result. According to
Hanstad (2012) Illnesses factors were considered a major reason for underperformance of
the Norwegian team in Turin. In another example, a multiple world champion Melissa
Mankowski was out of the 2008 Olympics Beijing Olympics after a training injury which
happened only a week shy of the competing in the final Olympic event (Schlink, 2008).

• Nutrition – This is both a positive and negative risk factor. Having the right nutrition
strategy in accordance to the participants sport, personal goals and food preferences can
be a key component for optimal performance in sporting. This is a positive risk and it needs
to be explored and the benefits to be exploited. On the other hand, there is a risk of doping
charges for athletes who take dietary supplements as part of their nutrition strategy. (Beck
et al., 2015). For instance, UFC fighter Jessica Penne was suspended over doping charges
 for consuming prohibited substance, this was eventually linked to the dietary supplement
she was prescribed due to her medical issue (MMAWeekly, 2020).

3.2 Mental Health

Olympics is not all about the physical strength of athletes but also about mental endurance
which can influence overall performance in the games. Stress related illness are getting more
and more common as the pressure on athletes increase to give their best shot.

Sub- categories:

Goal Setting & Expectations – Having over ambitious goals and expectations can cause
mental distress, and hence not only impact athletes’ performance during the game but it can
have lasting impact even after the Olympics is over. According to Hanstad (2012), over
ambitious goals were not realised in Turin game, thus resulted in uncertainty and pessimism
within the team. On the other hand, for high performing athletes’ goal setting and stakeholders’
expectations can be a motivating factor, hence influencing their overall performance. If goal
setting is done right, considering personal differences and environmental factor can have
greater overall benefit for the athletes (Healy et al., 2018).

Mental Preparation - Participating in the Olympics games is a matter of prestige and once in
a lifetime opportunity, but with fame and scrutiny comes a lot of stress, therefore it is crucial for
athletes to get right support to integrate mental and physical training in their routine.

Therefore, having support in terms of sport psychologist’s presence can have a potential for
enhanced performance (Arnold & Sarkar, 2015). I consider this risk to be from medium to high,
as all participants will experience stress at some stage in the competition at varying degrees,
however it is important to remember that a good mental preparation can help athletes block
out distractions, stick to their routine and elevate their confidence levels.

3.3 Practical Aspects

Practical aspects such as where athletes sleep, train and interact with others or how are they
transported to the games and other logical factors can have a direct or indirect impact on their
training, health and performance. This is becoming an issue lately due to more and more
countries struggle to prepare the country for the Olympics in time.
Sub- categories:

Living Conditions & Logistics – This is a low to medium risk issue for athletes, and it may or
may not occur depending on where the Olympics is hosted and the preparation of the host
team.

Living condition & logistics such as transportation of the athletes can play a part in overall
physical and mental state before the games. According to Forrester (2018), “The success of
the Olympic Games and any major sporting event is dependent upon the performances of its
athletes. To have a great result, the conditions must be optimal”. Therefore, a great attention
to be paid in the living condition as this is where athletes rest, socialise and prepare for the big
game. It is also important to note that athlete’s village can also be a place to bond with other
competitors, an opportunity than can create a health environment in such high stress event.

For instance: In Rio De Janeiro, athlete’s village was called unfit for occupancy, problems such
as blocked toilets, leaving pipes and exposed wiring were noted, causing a tremendous amount
of stress for athletes resulting into some athletes not moving into the village (Schmidt, 2016).
Another example showing the importance of logistics is; during the 1996 Olympics in Atlanda,
gold medallist in judo, “David Khakhaleichvili, a 1992 gold medalist in judo from the former
Soviet republic of Georgia, lost the chance to defend his title when he got caught in traffic and
missed the weigh-in” (Drozdiak, 1996).

Security – This can be a low probability to high impact risk depending on where the Olympics
it is being held. Poor general security for the athletes can have physical and psychological
impact and may cause incidents that can hinder athletes’ performance. For instance, some of
issues at the Rio Olympics were: members of the sailing team including Fernando Echavarri
were robbed at gunpoint in a neighbourhood deemed safe (Adhav, 2016). Another issue that
cannot be ignored is terrorism in sports, it has happened in the past and it can happen again,
therefore contingencies to be thought of and formulated well in advance to protect athletes.
Example: In 1972 Sumer Olympics, Munich, a group of Palestinian terrorists storms the
Olympic Village apartment of the Israeli athletes, killing two and taking nine others hostage
(History, 1972).

3.4 Media
Media and sport industry have shared a symbiotic relationship for years, the power of media
can make or break one’s career. I treat this as an overall medium to high risk due to the fact
athlete’s have lost their job due to negative coverage.

Sub- categories:

Media coverage and Media relationship - There are two sides of this risk, negative; can
cause distraction which can interfere with the ability to focus, can evoke negative mood and
increase stress and anxiety levels, and stress at the same media can also be a positive
influence on athlete’s career. One classic example to support the importance of this risk is; Iron
Mike Tyson’s was once the most publicized boxer of all times. However due to his personal
turmoil media made him of the most criticized boxers of all times (U.S Sports Academy, 2008).

Another thing to consider under this risk is social media presence of the athletes and content
they share with their fans and general public, what they say etc. This is something that needs
to be looked at as well, as part of risk management plan. For instance, Nick D'Arcy and Kenrick
Monk came under fire with AOC due to posing with high powered gun on Facebook (ABC
News, 2012).

3.5 Environment

Environmental factors can cause risk in various forms to the athletes and to the conditions they
compete in. With the climate change issues being faced globally, looking at mitigating some of
these risks can be crucial for the Australian athletic team’s performance and there is also
substantial evidence to show the gravity of this risk.

Sub - categories

Acclimatisation – Unable to acclimatise with the host country’s environment can have impact
on how athletes train and perform in the 2020 Olympics. In a competition where a small margin
can be a difference between winning and losing, the athletes who can handle and prepare for
extreme environmental factors such as heat can have edge over other teams (Dolci, 2016).

For instance, participants in Rio Olympics were treated for heat stroke, and similar concerns
have been raised for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics where soaring temperatures have already killed
57 people in Japan since July 2019 (Tarrant, 2019).

Pollution – Pollution is another factor causing concerns amongst athletes competing in the
Olympics. Some of the issues raised are in relation to poor air quality, polluted water and high
UV rays causing health concerns amongst athletes and the concerned parties (Downs et al,
 2019). Another such example is, In Rio de Janeiro Olympics, 13 rowers fell ill with stomach
problems after competing in polluted venue at the world junior rowing championship (The
Guardian, 2015).

There relationship between air quality and respiratory health problems such as Asthma is
significant and can result in poor performance (McKenzie & Boulet, 2009).

3 Conclusions

Risk and sports go hand in hand, risk is inevitable in the sporting industry. However, how this
is managed can either be the difference between the winning and a losing athlete.

The goal of risk management regardless of the industry, is identifying potential risks, analysing
those risks to determine it’s likelihood of occurring and determination of the impact it will have
on the project in an event if it should occur, and proactively identify strategies to mitigate these
risks; either to avoid it altogether or lessen it’s impact while making the most of opportunity it
may present (Heldman, 2006).

The main purpose of this report is to proactively identify factors applicable to the Australian
team for the upcoming Olympic games, that can possibly lead to either physical injuries or
psychological impact and eventually effecting how they perform in the games. The other
purpose of this report is also to use this report as a basis for AOC to formulate strategies on
the identified risks and implement this for the benefit of the athletic team.

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