SSC3276

HONG KONG STUDIES

Individual Essay
Topic:
Can the one-way permit scheme solve the population problem in Hong Kong?

Student number:11372410
Student name: WONG TSZ FUNG
Submission date: 2020.12.15
(2000 words)
In recent years, the population of Hong Kong is rapidly aging. There are 1.35 million
people aged 65 or above, accounting for 20% of the total population. It is estimated
that by 2040, the elderly population will increase by as much as 250000, accounting
for about one third of the total population. In addition, as the average life expectancy
in Hong Kong is getting longer and longer, the number of elderly will only increase.
At that time, the large-scale changes in our population and social structure will have
far-reaching impacts. There is no doubt that this change will add burden to the already
overloaded medical system. At the same time, the aging population also brings severe
challenges to the housing and welfare system. The implementation of the one-way
permit scheme is aimed at facilitating cross-border family reunion. However, the
arrival and completion of the one-way permit scheme will also have an important
impact on changing Hong Kong's population, making up for the shortage of birth rate
and enhancing the labor force. The current quota for one-way permits is 150 per day,
of which 60 are restricted to children born in the mainland but with permanent right of
abode in Hong Kong. This essay will further discuss whether the one-way permit
scheme can solve the population problem in Hong Kong.

The implementation of the one-way permit scheme can make up for the shortage of
birth rate and alleviate the problem of population aging. The current policy allows
about 55000 mainland residents to settle in Hong Kong under the scheme each year,
with a daily quota of 150. The quota increased from 75 in 1982 to 105 in 1993 and
further increased to 150 in 1995 (Lam & Yip,2008). According to Report of the task
Force on Population Policy, the one-way permit scheme is the most important
immigration policy affecting the growth and structure of Hong Kong's population.
From 1997 to 2001, the number of new arrivals from the mainland under the scheme
was about 93% of the increase in Hong Kong's population. The effect of new
immigrants on slowing down the aging of Hong Kong's population is particularly
significant. In 2016, 43.1% of new immigrants from the mainland were under the age
of 25, while the corresponding proportion of local people was only 18.9%. At a time
when the population of Hong Kong is rapidly aging, a new force of population is very
important to maintain economic growth (Lam & Jow,2019). At least in the past 10
years, the local economic growth has slowed down, largely due to the aging
population. Without the continuous supply of new blood by new immigrants from the
mainland, the imbalance between the elderly and the working population will only
worsen, and Hong Kong's economic performance will also face more severe
challenges. The labour force participation rate of the new arrivals was 44.2%, while
that of the whole population was 61.4%. 30.7% of them were service workers and
shop sales personnel, and 34.9% were non-technical personnel (Lam & Jow,2019).
Although the labour force participation rate of new arrivals is lower than that of Hong
Kong as a whole, this is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of non-
economically active population among new arrivals. Student groups account for 30%
of the population of new arrivals. These new immigrants can become a potential
source of labor in the future and alleviate the problem of insufficient labor force
caused by an aging population. In addition, the one-way permit scheme can promote
family integration and harmony, and reduce the risk of divorce and juvenile
delinquency. In terms of the teaching system, the arrival of mainland born children in
Hong Kong will help to slow down the rate of curriculum reform and reduce the loss
of academic degrees.

On the other hand, the number of arriving children (under 18 years old) has gradually
declined, and middle-aged people aged 20 to 40 have become the largest group of
new arrivals. This shows that the scheme not only has little effect on maintaining a
sustainable population structure and increasing social vitality, but also has
shortcomings in deepening the problem of population aging. In recent years, the
number of new arrivals aged 55 or above has doubled, while the number of people
aged 24 or below has decreased. The population aged 45-54 has also increased from
7.2% to 12.4% (Cheng,2015). This group can only serve as the labor force in short
term for 10-20 years. They will then enter the non working stage, causing a burden on
the society for nearly 30 years (Bacon,2009). Between 2007 and 2017, one-way
permits brought more than 77000 people aged 45 or above to Hong Kong. As long as
15% of these people have visited public hospitals once a year, more than 10000
people have sought medical treatment every year, which has increased the burden of
public hospitals. In other words, the one-way permit does not help the society become
younger. On the contrary, it has been increasing the actual number of the elderly
population and increasing the medical and welfare burden of Hong Kong society. In
addition, the one-way permit also has the problem of deepening the gender imbalance
in Hong Kong. In 2016, there were 925 men per 1000 women, but by 2066, the
imbalance between men and women was more serious, with only 800 men per 1000
women. According to the calculation, in 2066, one out of every three women was
unmarried, which was higher than that of one in seven women in 2016 (Lam &
Jow,2019). However, 65% of the one-way permit holders are female. As the main
source of population growth in Hong Kong, the one-way permit will undoubtedly
aggravate the problem of gender imbalance in Hong Kong. Although the one-way
permit can alleviate the labor shortage in Hong Kong, it can not alleviate the
population structure problem of Hong Kong, and it will bring burden to the society of
Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government should propose to the central government to
improve the one-way permit system and give priority to people under the age of 18 to
come to Hong Kong. Furthermore, the Hong Kong government should also combat
bogus marriages to prevent the abuse of Hong Kong's medical and welfare resources.

Most of the mainland adults who immigrate to Hong Kong through the one-way
permit scheme generally have lower working skills and education levels. Therefore, it
is very likely to affect the quality of the Hong Kong population. This may deepen the
employment problem of the lower classes and further unbalance the labor market. In
the past decade, the number of people over 15 years old with a one-way permit
holding a junior college degree or above has increased from 14% to 20.9%, which is
lower than 31.1% of Hong Kong's population (Liu,2011). Most of the new arrivals are
adults with lower education level and less working experience. Due to this, they are at
a disadvantage in the local labor market when they first come to Hong Kong. Under
the epidemic situation, the labor market worsened and job opportunities for new
arrivals decreased. According to the latest statistics of the census and Statistics
Department, there were only 42000 job vacancies in March this year, a sharp drop of
46% compared with the same period last year. In the first six months of this year, the
labour department arranged 1330 job referrals for new arrivals, which also decreased
by 33% compared with the same period last year. Therefore, the unemployment rate
of new arrivals is higher than that of the general public. They are mostly employed at
the lower levels of the labour market, and thus their salaries may be lower than those
of the local people. This may affect local grassroots’ employment opportunities.
However, the number of new arrivals with only primary school education or below
has hovered around 12% in the past decade, which is lower than that of the overall
population of Hong Kong. Most of the new arrivals to Hong Kong are middle-aged
women and school children (Lam & Jow,2019). Even if these women are willing to
enter the labor market, their educational background and skills cannot support the
market, which will not be of great help to social development. Hong Kong has been
transformed into a knowledge-based economic society. The manufacturing industry is
shrinking. There is little demand for the low skilled and high labor force population.
However, this kind of new immigrant population is expanding, resulting in the
problem of in-service poverty and unemployment. Students are unable to contribute to
society in a short time, which puts pressure on Hong Kong's social resources such as
education and medical care. Hong Kong's future economic development needs high-
quality population growth, but the one-way permit cannot meet this demand as one of
the main sources of population growth in Hong Kong. Although new arrivals can
make up for the shortage of low skilled jobs, they will bring a burden to the Hong
Kong community as they grow older. How to attract high-quality talents from the
mainland is an issue that should be considered by the Hong Kong government at
present, rather than taking one-way permit as the main mode of population growth.
Only in this way can we improve the overall population quality of Hong Kong and
enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong in the world.

In conclusion, the current one-way permit policy cannot solve the population problem
of Hong Kong. The one-way permit can temporarily fill the shortage of labor force
caused by the aging population. However, the population growth brought about by the
one-way permit will not only deepen the population problem of Hong Kong, but also
bring a heavy burden to The society. In addition, Hong Kong's future economic
development needs a very high quality of population. However, most of the holders of
one-way permits have low academic qualifications, they are unable to meet the needs
of Hong Kong's development. The Hong Kong government should consider making
good use of the one-way permit scheme so as to play an important role in
continuously increasing the young population in Hong Kong. It is considered that the
government should propose to the central government that 75 one-way permit quota
per day be restored and that people under the age of 18 should be given priority to
come to Hong Kong. In this way, young people will come to Hong Kong with one-
way permits in the future. This will not only ease the aging problem of the population,
but also enable new arrivals to integrate into Hong Kong.

Reference

Bacon-Shone, J., Lam, J. K., & Yip, P. S. (2008). The past and future of the one way permit scheme in.
the context of a population policy for Hong Kong. Hong Kong: Bauhinia Foundation
Research Centre.

Bacon-Shone, J. (2009). One way permit scheme and Mainland-HKSAR families (No. LC Paper No. CB.
(2) 1116/08-09 (2)). Hong Kong: Hong Kong SAR Government.

Lam, G., & JOW-CHING TU, E. D. W. A. R. D. (2019). CAN ONE-WAY PERMIT SYSTEM ALLEVIATE LABOR.
SHORTAGE IN HONG KONG?. Modern China Studies, 26(1

刘洋. (2011). 香港人口老龄化对其经济发展的影响研究. 当代港澳研究, 32(1).

程今越. (2015). 人口老龄化加剧 香港安老面临严峻挑战. 沪港经济, (2), 34-37