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Topic 1 - Understanding Investments & Investment Alternatives (STU) - Đã G P
Topic 1 - Understanding Investments & Investment Alternatives (STU) - Đã G P
UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENTS
& INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
LEARNING OBJECTIVE
1-5
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
1-6
FINANCIAL ASSETS & MARKETABLE SECURITIES
Risk-free Rate
Risk
1-8
The Investment Decision Process
• Two-step process:
➢Security analysis and valuation
✓Necessary to understand security characteristics
➢Portfolio management
✓Selected securities viewed as a single unit
✓How efficient are financial markets in processing
new information?
✓How and when should it be revised?
✓How should portfolio performance be measured?
1-9
FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROCESS
1-10
Individual and Institutional investors
Benefits:
• The benefit of mutual fund is that it allows people
with small money, not much expertise in finance,
to diversify their portfolios and get a higher normal
return than deposit institutions such as commercial
banks.
• Participating in mutual funds will reduce
transaction costs based on a sharing mechanism
• Investing through a mutual fund will help amateur
investors take advantage of the expertise of fund
managers, who are professionally trained in this
field.
MONEY MARKET FUNDS
• The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the per share value of the
securities in the fund’s portfolio.
• It is computed daily after the markets close at 4 p.m. by
calculating the total market value of the securities in the
portfolio, subtracting any liabilities, and dividing by the
number of investment company fund shares currently
outstanding.
• A primary market
➢ is one in which an issuer seeking new funds
sells additional securities in exchange for cash
from an investor (buyer).
➢ New sales of Treasury bonds, or Apple stock,
or California bonds all take place in the primary
markets.
➢ The issuers of these securities – the U.S.
government, IBM, and the state of California,
respectively – receive cash from the buyers of
these new securities, who in turn receive new
financial claims on the issuer.
SECURITIES MARKETS
• A primary market
➢ This is the market where securities are created.
In the primary market, companies sell new
stocks and bonds to investors for the first time.
This is usually done through an Initial Public
Offering (IPO).
➢Small investors are not able to purchase
securities in the primary market because the
issuing company and its investment bankers are
looking to sell to large investors who can buy a
lot of securities at once. The primary market
provides financing for issuing companies.
SECURITIES MARKETS
A secondary market
• This is the market wherein the trading of securities
is done. Secondary market consists of both equity
as well as debt markets.
• Or The secondary market is where investors buy
and sell securities from other investors (think of
stock exchanges).
• For example, if you want to buy Apple stock, you
would purchase the stock from investors who
already own the stock rather than Apple. Apple
would not be involved in the transaction.
SECONDARY MARKETS
• Third Market
➢Large institutional investors go through market
makers that are not members of a securities
exchange
➢Institutional investors (mutual funds, life insurance
companies, pension funds) receive reduced trading
costs due to large size of transactions
• Fourth Market
➢Large institutional investors deal directly with each
other to bypass market makers
➢Electronic Communications Networks (ECNs) allow
direct trading
➢ECNs most effective for high-volume, actively traded
securities
General Market Conditions
• Bull Market
➢Favorable markets
➢Rising prices
➢Investor/consumer optimism
➢Economic growth and recovery
➢Government stimulus
• Bear Market
➢Unfavorable markets
➢Falling prices
➢Investor/consumer pessimism
➢Economic slowdown
➢Government restraint
Globalization of Securities Markets
• Diversification: the inclusion of a number of
different investment vehicles in a portfolio to
increase returns or reduce risks
• Use of International Securities Improves
Diversification
➢More industries and securities available
➢Securities denominated in different currencies
➢Opportunities in rapidly expanding economies
• International Investment Performance
➢Opportunities for high returns
➢Foreign securities markets do not necessarily move
with the U.S. securities market
➢Foreign securities markets tend to be more risky than
U.S. markets
Globalization of
Securities Markets (cont’d)
• Insider Trading
➢Use of nonpublic information about a company
to make profitable securities transactions
• Blue Sky Laws
➢Laws imposed by individual states to regulate
sellers of securities
➢Intended to prevent investors from being sold
nothing but “blue sky”
Regulation of Securities Markets
• Long Purchase
➢Investor buys and holds securities
➢“Buy low and sell high”
➢Make money when prices go up
Basic Types of Securities Transactions
(cont’d)
• Margin Trading
➢Uses borrowed funds to purchase securities
➢Currently owned securities used as collateral for
margin loan from broker
➢Margin requirements set by Federal Reserve Board
✓Determines the minimum amount of equity
required
✓Initial margin is the percentage (50%) of fund
acquired from investor; the balance is borrowed
from broker. It is set by Federal Reserve System.
➢Can be used for common stocks, preferred stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, options, warrants and futures
Ex:
• On $4,445 purchase with how much for margin
requirement and broker will lend?
Table 2.4 Initial Margin Requirements
for Various Types of Securities
Margin Trading
• Advantages
➢ Allows use of financial leverage
➢ Magnifies profits
• Disadvantages
➢ Magnifies losses
➢ Interest expense on margin loan
➢ Margin calls
Maintenance margin
V -D $6,500 - $1,200
Margin = = = 0.815 = 81.5%
V $6,500
Table 2.3 The Effect of Margin
Trading on Security Returns
Margin Formulas (cont’d)
• Short Selling
➢Investor sells securities they don’t own
➢Investor borrows securities from broker
➢Broker lends securities owned by other
investors that are held in “street name”
➢“Sell high and buy low”
➢Investors make money when stock prices
go down
Short Selling
• Advantages
➢Chance to profit when stock price declines
• Disadvantages
➢Limited return opportunities: stock price cannot go
below $0.00
➢Unlimited risks: stock price can go up an
unlimited amount
➢If stock price goes up, short seller still needs to buy
shares to pay back the “borrowed” shares to the broker
➢Short sellers may not earn dividends
Table 2.5 The Mechanics of a Short Sale
Table 2.6 Margin Positions on Short Sales
1
yield
to
maturity
yield
to
maturity
yield
to
maturity
yield
to
maturity
Required
rate of =
return
22
Required Risk-free
rate of = rate of
return return
Required
rate of =
return
25
For a corporate stock or bond, what is the
required rate of return?
Required Risk-free
rate of = rate of
return return
26
For a corporate stock or bond, what is the
required rate of return?
Returns
Pt + Dt
= ---------- - 1
Pt-1
30
Risk and Rates of Return
Holding Period return
Pt + Dt
= ---------- - 1
Pt-1
(Pt - Pt-1) + Dt
= ----------------
Pt-1
31
Một nhà đầu tư mua cổ phiếu của REE đầu năm 2004 với
tổng số tiền 50 triệu đồng. Trong 3 năm, mỗi năm nhà
đầu tư nhận được 5 triệu đồng cổ tức. Năm 2005, nhà
đầu tư có quyền mua cổ phiếu và đã bán, thu được 10
triệu đồng. Cuối năm 2006, nhà đầu tư đã bán toàn bộ cổ
phiếu với giá 100 triệu đồng. Nếu không tính phí giao
dịch, kết quả kinh doanh của nhà đầu tư sẽ là:
Lợi nhuận tuyệt đối là: (100 + 5 × 3 + 10) – 50 = 75 triệu
đồng
Tỷ lệ hoàn vốn là: HPR = (100+15+10)/50 = 2.5 = 250%
Lợi tức của ba năm là: HPY = 75/50 = 1,5 lần = 150%
Lợi tức mỗi năm là: HPYtheo năm = HPY1/n = 1,51/3 =
1,224745
32
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return
❖Expected return is based on expected cash flows (not
accounting profits)
Return can be expressed as Cash
Flows or Percentage Return
33
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return
❖Expected return is based on expected cash flows (not
accounting profits)
❖In an uncertain world future cash flows are not known
with certainty
34
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return
❖Expected return is based on expected cash flows (not
accounting profits)
❖In uncertain world future cash flows are not known with
certainty
❖To calculate expected return, compute the weighted
average of all possible returns
35
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return
❖Expected return is based on expected cash flows (not
accounting profits)
❖In uncertain world future cash flows are not known with
certainty
❖To calculate expected return, compute the weighted
average of possible returns
❖Calculating Expected Return:
N
k= k iP( k i )
i=1
36
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return
❖Expected return is based on expected cash flows (not
accounting profits)
❖In uncertain world future cash flows are not known with
certainty
❖To calculate expected return, compute the weighted
average of possible returns
❖Calculating Expected Return:
N
k= k iP( k i )
i=1
where
ki = Return state i
P(ki) = Probability of ki occurring
N = Number of possible states
37
N
k = k iP(k i )
i =1
40
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return Calculation
Example
You are evaluating ElCat Corporation’s common stock. You
estimate the following returns given different states of the
economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 x –5% = –0.5%
Zero Growth .20 x 5% = 1%
Moderate Growth .40 10%
High Growth .30 20%
N
k = k iP(k i )
i =1
41
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return Calculation
Example
You are evaluating ElCat Corporation’s common stock. You
estimate the following returns given different states of the
economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 x –5% = –0.5%
Zero Growth .20 x 5% = 1%
Moderate Growth .40 x 10% = 4%
High Growth .30 20%
N
k = k iP(k i )
i =1
42
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return Calculation
Example
You are evaluating ElCat Corporation’s common stock. You
estimate the following returns given different states of the
economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 x –5% = –0.5%
Zero Growth .20 x 5% = 1%
Moderate Growth .40 x 10% = 4%
High Growth .30 x 20% = 6%
N
k = k iP(k i )
i =1
43
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return Calculation
Example
You are evaluating ElCat Corporation’s common stock. You
estimate the following returns given different states of the
economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 x –5% = –0.5%
Zero Growth .20 x 5% = 1%
Moderate Growth .40 x 10% = 4%
High Growth .30 x 20% = 6%
k = 10.5%
N
k = k iP(k i )
i =1
44
Risk and Rates of Return
Expected Return Calculation
Example
You are evaluating ElCat Corporation’s common stock. You
estimate the following returns given different states of the
economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn .10 x –5% = –0.5%
Zero Growth .20 x 5% = 1%
Moderate Growth .40 x 10% = 4%
High Growth .30 x 20% = 6%
k = 10.5%
N
k = k iP(k i ) Expected (or average) rate
i =1 of return on stock is 10.5%
45
Expected Return
Probability
of Return T-Bill
100%
6% Return
50
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk
❖Risk is the uncertainty of future outcomes
Example
You evaluate two investments: ElCat Corporation’s
common stock and a one year Gov't Bond paying 6%. The
return on the Gov't Bond does not depend on the state of
the economy--you are guaranteed a 6% return.
40%
30%
20%
10%
6% Return –5% 5% 10% 20% Return
51
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk
❖Risk is the uncertainty of future outcomes
Example
You evaluate two investments: ElCat Corporation’s
common stock and a one year Gov't Bond paying 6%. The
return on the Gov't Bond does not depend on the state of
the economy--you are guaranteed a 6% return.
N
1
s=
(n − 1) _ i =1
( ki − k ) 2
67
Risk and Rates of Return
Use the following data to calculate the historical return
of XYZ
Year Return
1992 12%
1993 16%
1994 -8%
1995 6%
68
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
69
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
70
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
Stock price will most likely fall if a major government
contract is discontinued unexpectedly.
71
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
72
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
Stock price is likely to rise if overall stock market is
doing well.
73
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
❖Diversification: If investors hold stock of many
companies, the firm specific risk will be canceled out:
Investors diversify portfolio.
74
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
❖Diversification: If investors hold stock of many
companies, the firm specific risk will be canceled out:
Investors diversify portfolio.
Firm specific risk also called diversifiable
risk or unsystematic risk
75
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
❖Diversification: If investors hold stock of many
companies, the firm specific risk will be canceled out:
Investors diversify portfolio.
❖Even if hold many stocks, cannot eliminate the market
related risk
76
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖Risk of a company's stock can be separated into two
parts:
❖Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm
❖Market related Risk - Risk due to overall market
conditions
❖Diversification: If investors hold stock of many
companies, the firm specific risk will be canceled out:
Investors diversify portfolio.
❖Even if hold many stocks, cannot eliminate the market
related risk Market related risk is also called non-diversifiable
risk or systematic risk
77
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about
20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
78
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about
20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
Variability
of Returns
Market
Related Risk
Number of stocks in Portfolio
79
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about
20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
Variability
of Returns
Firm Specific
Risk
Variability
of Returns
Total
Risk
Variability
of Returns
20
Number of stocks in Portfolio
82
Risk and Rates of Return
Risk and Diversification
❖If an investor holds enough stocks in portfolio (about
20) company specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
❖Holding a general stock mutual fund (not a specific
industry fund) is similar to holding a well-diversified
portfolio.
Variability
of Returns
20
Number of stocks in Portfolio
83
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market risk is the risk of the overall market. To
measure the market risk we need to compare
individual stock returns to the overall market returns.
84
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market risk is the risk of the overall market. To
measure the market risk we need to compare
individual stock returns to the overall market returns.
❖A proxy for the market is usually used: An index of
stocks such as the S&P 500
85
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market risk is the risk of the overall market, so to
measure need to compare individual stock returns to
the overall market returns.
❖A proxy for the market is usually used: An index of
stocks such as the S&P 500
❖Market risk measures how individual stock returns are
affected by this market
86
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market risk is the risk of the overall market, so to
measure need to compare individual stock returns to
the overall market returns.
❖A proxy for the market is usually used: An index of
stocks such as the S&P 500
❖Market risk measures how individual stock returns are
affected by this market
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
87
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
88
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-15%
89
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-5%
Plot Remaining
Points -10%
-15%
90
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
Fit Regression
Line 5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
91
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Regress individual stock returns on Market index
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-5%
-10%
rise 5.5%
Slope = = = 1.1
run 5%
-15%
92
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market Risk is measured by Beta
93
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market Risk is measured by Beta
❖Beta is the slope of the characteristic line
PepsiCo 15%
Return
10%
5%
S&P
Return
-15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
-5%
-10%
rise 5.5%
Slope = = = 1.1 = Beta (b)
run 5%
-15%
94
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market Risk is measured by Beta
❖Beta is the slope of the characteristic line
❖Interpreting Beta
❖Beta = 1
Market Beta = 1
Company with a beta of 1 has average risk
95
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market Risk is measured by Beta
❖Beta is the slope of the characteristic line
❖Interpreting Beta
❖Beta = 1
Market Beta = 1
Company with a beta of 1 has average risk
❖Beta < 1
Low Risk Company
Return on stock will be less affected by the market than average
96
Risk and Rates of Return
Measuring Market Risk
❖Market Risk is measured by Beta
❖Beta is the slope of the characteristic line
❖Interpreting Beta
❖Beta = 1
Market Beta = 1
Company with a beta of 1 has average risk
❖Beta < 1
Low Risk Company
Return on stock will be less affected by the market than average
❖Beta > 1
High Market Risk Company
Stock return will be more affected by the market than average
97
Risk and Rates of Return
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
where:
Kj = required rate of return on the jth security
Bj = Beta for the jth security
101
Risk and Rates of Return
Security Market Line
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
102
Risk and Rates of Return
Security Market Line
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
103
Risk and Rates of Return
Security Market Line
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
10%
5%
Risk Free Rate
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
12%
10% Risk & Return
on market
5%
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
SML
Market
10%
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
SML
If b of security j =1.2
Market
10%
5%
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
SML
j If b of security j =1.2
Market
10% Kj = 5%+1.2(12% – 5%)
5%
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
SML
13.4% j If b of security j =1.2
Market
10% Kj = 5%+1.2(12% – 5%)
=13.4%
5%
Kj = Krf + bj ( Km – Krf )
Example:
If the expected return on the market is 12% and the risk
free rate is 5%:
Kj = 5% + bj (12% – 5% )
15%
SML
13.4% j If b of security j =1.2
Market
10% Kj = 5%+1.2(12% – 5%)
=13.4%
5% If b = 1.2, investors will
require a 13.4% return
on the stock
.50 1.0 1.2 1.5 Beta
110
Risk and Rates of Return
ki : Expected (or required) rate of return from an
investment i.
KRF : Risk free rate of return (e.g., 3 moth T-Bill rate)
kM : Expected return from a market (e.g., S&P500)
portfolio
(kM - kRF) : Market Risk Premium
b(kM - kRF) : Risk Premium on asset i
111
Risk and Rates of Return
Portfolio Return = S wi x ki
Portfolio beta = S wi x bi
Beta of a portfolio is the weighted average beta of
individual securities in the portfolio.
REVIEW TOPIC 5
• Capital Market Theory: Capital market theory is a generic term
for the analysis of securities. In terms of trade off between the
returns sought by investors and the inherent risks involved, the
capital market theory is a model that seeks to price assets, most
commonly, shares.
• Market efficiency: Market efficiency refers to the degree to
which market prices reflect all available, relevant information. If
markets are efficient, then all information is already incorporated
into prices, and so there is no way to "beat" the market because
there are no undervalued or overvalued securities available.
→perfectly (everyone receives the information), completely
(everyone receives the entire information), instantly (everyone
receives the information at once), and for no cost (everyone
receives the information for free).
→The Weak, Strong, and Semi-Strong Efficient Market
Hypotheses
TOPIC 6
Required return
Inflation
A rising trend in the prices of most goods and services.
Liquidity preference
A general tendency for investors to prefer short-term (that is,
more liquid) securities
INTEREST RATE AND RETURN
NOMINAL OR ACTUAL RATE OF INTEREST
2-12
BOND CHARACTERISTICS
2-13
Types of bonds
• Corporate Bonds – Issued by Corporations to
expand or finance a project, usually taxable and
offer higher returns.
• Government Bonds – Treasury bonds carry the
lowest degree of risk and are the benchmark
against which all other types of bonds are
measured. Although their market values fluctuate,
they are considered the safest.
• Municipal Bonds – Issued by the local
government usually to finance specific projects.
• Other terminologies – Agency bonds,
Collateralized bonds, Commercial papers,
Convertible bonds, Covenant bonds, Credit
Rating, Debentures
Corporate bond
A bond is a long-term debt instrument that pays the
bondholder a specified amount of periodic interest rate over a
specified period of time
The bond’s coupon
The bond’s maturity
The bond’s principal is the rate is the specified
date is the time at
amount borrowed by the interest rate (or $
which a bond
company and the amount amount) that must
becomes due and
owed to the bond holder on be periodically paid.
the principal must be
the maturity date.
repaid.
Corporate bond
a) Face/Par Value
The face value (also known as the par value) of a bond is the
price at which the bond is sold to investors when first issued; it
is also the price at which the bond is redeemed at maturity. In
the U.S., the face value is usually $1,000 or a multiple of
$1,000.
year.
➢ Current yield
M P = price
P=
(1+r)n M = maturity value
r = investor's required annual yield
n = number of years until maturity
FOR EXAMPLE
Floating-rate bonds
• Stated interest rate is adjusted periodically within stated
limits in response to changes in specified money market or
capital market rates. Popular when future inflation and
interest rates are uncertain.
• Ex: An investor buys a bond with an interest rate of 8% of
the adjustment period of 6 months while a government
bond has a fixed interest rate of 7.5%. After a period when
the government bond interest rate is increased to 8.5%,
after 6 months, the bond A owned will be adjusted the
interest rate at least to 9% to still ensure that A enjoys a
higher interest rate than 0, 5% compared to when
investing in government bonds → Floating-rate bonds
Corporate bond: Common types of bonds
Extendible notes
• Short maturities, typically 1 to 5 years, that can be
renewed for a similar period at the option of
holders.
• Similar to a floating-rate bond. An issue might be a
series of 3-year renewable notes over a period of
15 years; every 3 years, the notes could be
extended for another 3 years, at a new rate
competitive with market interest rates at the time
of renewal.
Corporate bond: Common types of bonds
Putable bonds
• Bonds that can be redeemed at par
(typically, $1,000) at the option of their
holder either at specific dates after the date
of issue and every 1 to 5 years thereafter or
when and if the firm takes specified actions,
such as being acquired, acquiring another
company, or issuing a large amount of
additional debt.
VALUATION FUNDAMENTALS
Time to Maturity
M − B0
I+
YTM = n
M + B0
2
Simple yield calculation - example
▪ Question:
A four-year bond has exactly four years till maturity
and the last coupon has just been paid. The coupon is
annual and equal to 5.5 percent. The bond price is 96
percent.
Calculate its simple yield.
Simple yield calculation - example
▪ Question:
A four-year bond has exactly four years till maturity
and the last coupon has just been paid. The coupon is
annual and equal to 5.5 percent. The bond price is 96
percent.
Calculate its simple yield.
DURATION
• In simple terms, modified duration gives an idea of
how the price of a bond will be affected should
interest rates change. A higher duration implies
greater price sensitivity upwards (downwards)
should rates move down (up).
• Duration is quoted as the percentage change in
price for each given percent change in interest
rates. For example, the price of a bond with a
duration of 2 would be expected to increase
(decline) by about 2.00% for each 1.00% move
down (up) in rates.
DURATION
• The duration of a bond is primarily affected by its coupon
rate, yield, and remaining time to maturity. The duration of
a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield,
and longer the time left to maturity. The following scenarios
of comparing two bonds should help clarify how these
three traits affect a bond’s duration:
✓If the coupon and yield are the same, duration increases
with time left to maturity
✓If the maturity and yield are the same, duration increases
with a lower coupon
✓If the coupon and maturity are the same, duration
increases with a lower yield
Example:
1. What is the price of a 5-year bond with a $100 face value, which
delivers a 5% annual coupon rate?
2. What is the yield to maturity of this bond?
3. We suppose that the zero-coupon curve increases instantaneously
and uniformly by 0.5%. What is the new price and the new yield to
maturity of the bond? What is the impact of this rate increase for the
bondholder?
Major Differences Among Bond Markets
▪ Quotation
▪ Bonds are quoted in the form of a clean price net of
accrued interest.
▪ The full price (or value) of a bond is the sum of its
clean price plus accrued interest. Or,
P = Q +AI
➢ Where P = full price, Q = quoted price and AI
= accrued interest
▪ Accrued interest = Coupon * (days since last
coupon date/days in coupon period).
Full Price and Clean Price – An example
▪ Yield to Maturity:
▪ The yield to maturity (YTM) – (lãi suất đáo hạn) is the
average promised yield over the life of the bond.
▪ The convention used to calculate YTM varies across
markets.
▪ In the U.S, YTM is calculated at a semiannual rate and the
result is multiplied by 2 to report an annualized rate.
▪ Most Europeans calculate an annual, actuarial YTM.
▪ The simple interest yield approach is also used in Japan.
Return on Foreign Bond Investments
▪ The return from investing in a foreign bond has three
components:
▪ During the investment period, the bondholder receives the
foreign yield.
▪ A change in the foreign yield (Δforeign) induces a
percentage capital gain/loss on the price of the bond.
▪ A currency movement induces a currency gain or loss on the
position.
Return = Foreign yield – D * (Δforeign yield) + % currency
movement
Currency-Hedging Strategies
a. The Swiss investor has come up with his own model to forecast the USD/SFr
exchange rate one year ahead. This model forecasts the one-year ahead
exchange rate to be USD/SFr = 1.3500. Based on this forecast, should the
Swiss investor hedge the currency risk of his investment using a forward
contract?
b. If the Swiss investor decides to hedge using a forward contract, give a rough
estimate of his expected return.
c. Verify for the hedged investment that the risk premium in Swiss francs is the
same as the risk premium on the same U.S. Treasury bond for a US. investor.
Ex
DEBT EQUIITY
- Borrowing incurred by
the firm
Differences between Debt and Equity
Voice in management
Maturity
Tax treatment
Differences between Debt and Equity
DEBT EQUIITY
Voice in management
Tax treatment
Private Placement
The firm sells the new securities
directly to an investor or group
of investors
Issuing common stock – Going Public
Initial Public Offering (IPO): Basic process
Efficiency -
the price of securities fully reflect all information
Market
Hypothesis available, the prices react swiftly to new information
D1 = D1 = … = D∞
Common Stock Valuation
Zero growth model
Scotto Manufacturing‘s most recent common stock dividend was
$2.40 per share. The firm’s management feels that dividends will
remain at the current level for the foreseeable future.
a. If the required return is 12%, what will be the value of Scotto’s
common stock?
b. If the required return to rise to 20%, what will be the common
stock value?
Common Stock Valuation
Zero growth model P0 = ?
D1 = $2.4
𝐷1 $2.4
a. P0 = = = $20
𝑟𝑠 0.12
𝐷1 $2.4
b. P0 = = = $12
𝑟𝑠 0.2
Common Stock Valuation
Zero growth model:
D0 D1 D2 D3
D1 = D0(1+g)1 D2 = D0(1+g)2 D3 = D0(1+g)3
1 2 ∞
𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔 𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔 𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔
𝑃0 = + + ⋯+
1 + 𝑟𝑠 1 1 + 𝑟2 2 1 + 𝑟𝑠 ∞
Common Stock Valuation
Constant – Growth model or Gordon growth model
1 2 ∞
𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔 𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔 𝐷0 𝑥 1 + 𝑔
𝑃0 = + + ⋯+
1 + 𝑟𝑠 1 1 + 𝑟2 2 1 + 𝑟𝑠 ∞
it can be written as
𝐷1
𝑃0 =
𝑟𝑠 − 𝑔
Common Stock Valuation
Constant – Growth model
𝐷1 𝑫𝟏
𝑃0 = 𝒓𝒔 = +𝒈
𝑟𝑠 − 𝑔 𝑷𝟎
Example:
1.897
1.798
1.705
23.023 35.937
P0 = 28.424
Common Stock Valuation
Variable – Growth model
In general:
Step 1: Calculation of PV of each dividend of the initial
growth period;
Step 2: Calculation the present value of the stock’s price
at the end of the initial growth period;
Step 3: The sum of all present values above is the
common stock’s price.
Common Stock Valuation
Free cash flow valuation model
A model that determines the value of an entire company as the
present value of its expected free cash flows discounted at the
firm’s weighted average cost of capital, which is its expected
average future cost of funds over the long run.
Free cash flow model (FCFs) can be applied for:
- No dividend history
- Startups
- Division of a larger public company
Common Stock Valuation
Free cash flow valuation model
Value of the entire company (Vc)
Common Stock Valuation
Free cash flow valuation model
Step 1: Calculate the free cash flow occurring from the end of 2018
to infinity, using the constant-growth dividend valuation model
Common Stock Valuation
Free cash flow valuation model
Step 2: Calculate the total value of FCF in 2017
=> VS = $4,726,426
Required: Calculte how much USD will be earned by this investor after
the trading transaction?
1. Mutual funds
• is an open-end investment company, the most familiar type of investment
company.
• Unlike closed-end funds and ETFs, mutual funds do not trade on stock exchanges.
Investors buy
mutual funds shares from investment companies, and sell their shares back to the
companies.
Benefits:
• The benefit of mutual fund is that it allows people with small money, not much
expertise in finance, to diversify their portfolios and get a higher normal return than
deposit institutions such as commercial banks.
• Participating in mutual funds will reduce transaction costs based on a sharing
mechanism
• Investing through a mutual fund will help amateur investors take advantage of the
expertise of fund managers, who are professionally trained in this field.
2. Closed-end funds
• Closed-end investment company
➢ is an investment company with a fixed capitalization whose shares trade on
exchanges and OTC
➢ offers investors an actively managed portfolio of securities
➢ To buy and sell, investors use their brokerage firms, paying (receiving) the
current price at which the shares are selling plus (less) brokerage commissions
• Shares of closed-end funds trade on stock exchanges, their prices are determined
by investors.
3. Individual and Institutional investors
• Institutional investors have a dual relationship with individual investors. On the
one hand, individuals are the indirect beneficiaries of institutional investor actions,
because they own or benefit from these institutions’ portfolios. On a daily basis,
however, they are “competing” with these institutions in the sense that both are
managing portfolios of securities and attempting do well financially by buying and
selling securities.
• Institutional investors are indeed the “professional” investors, with vast resources
at their command. In the past, they were often treated differently from individual
investors, because companies often disclosed important information selectively to
some institutional investors.
4. The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the per share value of the securities in the fund’s
portfolio (Topic 2)
• The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the per share value of the securities in the fund’s
portfolio.
• It is computed daily after the markets close at 4 p.m. by calculating the total market
value of the securities in the portfolio, subtracting any liabilities, and dividing by
the number of investment company fund shares currently outstanding.
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑑′ 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠−𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠
NAV =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
5. Margin Trading
➢Uses borrowed funds to purchase securities
➢Currently owned securities used as collateral for
margin loan from broker
➢Margin requirements set by Federal Reserve Board
✓Determines the minimum amount of equity
required
✓Initial margin is the percentage (50%) of fund acquired from investor; the balance
is borrowed
from broker. It is set by Federal Reserve System.
➢Can be used for common stocks, preferred stocks, bonds, mutual funds, options,
warrants and futures
• Advantages
➢ Allows use of financial leverage
➢ Magnifies profits
• Disadvantages
➢ Magnifies losses
➢ Interest expense on margin loan
➢ Margin calls
6. CAPM model
7. Bond valuation
8. Pricing stock (with dividends paid infinity/with constant growth or variable growth)
9. International bond market
10. International stock market