Eur J Health Econ
DOI 10.1007/s10198-015-0697-6
ORIGINAL PAPER
Effects of food price inflation on infant and child mortality
in developing countries
Hyun-Hoon Lee1 • Suejin A. Lee2 • Jae-Young Lim3 • Cyn-Young Park4
Received: 26 January 2015 / Accepted: 11 May 2015
 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Abstract
Background After a historic low level in the early 2000s,
global food prices surged upwards to bring about the global
food crisis of 2008. High and increasing food prices can
generate an immediate threat to the security of a house-
hold’s food supply, thereby undermining population health.
This paper aims to assess the precise effects of food price
inflation on child health in developing countries.
Methods This paper employs a panel dataset covering 95
developing countries for the period 2001–2011 to make a
comprehensive assessment of the effects of food price in-
flation on child health as measured in terms of infant
mortality rate and child mortality rate.
Results Focusing on any departure of health indicators
from their respective trends, we find that rising food prices
& Jae-Young Lim
jylimecon@korea.ac.kr
Hyun-Hoon Lee
hhlee@kangwon.ac.kr
Suejin A. Lee
sal278@cornell.edu
Cyn-Young Park
cypark@adb.org
1
Department of International Trade and Business, Kangwon
National University, Chuncheon 200-701, Republic of Korea
2
Field of Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca,
NY 14853, USA
3
Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea
University, Seoul 136-701, Republic of Korea
4
Economics and Research Department, Asian Development
Bank, Mandaluyong 1550, The Philippines
have a significant detrimental effect on nourishment and
consequently lead to higher levels of both infant and child
mortality in developing countries, and especially in least
developed countries (LDCs).
Discussion High food price inflation rates are also found
to cause an increase in undernourishment only in LDCs and
thus leading to an increase in infant and child mortality in
these poorest countries. This result is consistent with the
observation that, in lower-income countries, food has a
higher share in household expenditures and LDCs are
likely to be net food importing countries.
Conclusions Hence, there should be increased efforts by
both LDC governments and the international community to
alleviate the detrimental link between food price inflation
and undernourishment and also the link between un-
dernourishment and infant mortality.
Keywords Food prices  Infant mortality  Child
mortality  Undernourishment  Food security
JEL Classification I15  I18  I19  Q18
Introduction
From the early 1970s, prices of food commodities traded in
the global market declined substantially, to reach a historic
low level in the early 2000s [1]. After this period, however,
global food prices began to increase gradually, and from
2006 they surged upwards to bring about the global food
crisis of 2008. Following a brief decline from the second
half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, global food prices
again began to increase rapidly so as to surpass the 2008
level in August 2012 (see Fig. 1).
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Fig. 1 Trend of food price 300.0 80.0

index and inflation rates. Food Price Index (Le Scale) Food Price Inflaon (Right Scale)
Source: authors’ calculations
using statistics division of the 250.0 60.0
FAO (FAOSTAT) database

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The sudden increases of global food commodity prices emphasize that these shocks initially compromise maternal
were transmitted to national food price inflation.1 The high and child nutrition, mainly through a reduction in dietary
prices of food commodities in the global market and the quality and an increase in micronutrient deficiencies as
consequent increases in national food prices led to in- well as concomitant increases in infectious disease mor-
creased concern over global food security because high and bidity and mortality.2
increasing food prices may result in an increased prob- Brinkman et al. [2] warn that high and increasing food
ability of starvation and reduced household consumption of prices run the risk of undoing much of the progress made
nutritious foods; such a situation can both undermine toward achieving Millennium Development Goals
population health and increase mortality. (MDGs),3 which call for a reduction in under-5 child
Some studies have examined the impact of the recent mortality (and infant mortality) by two-thirds between
global food crisis in combination with the global financial 1990 and 2015 (Goal 4). As agricultural commodity prices
crisis on nutrition and health status [2–4]. Brinkman et al. in real terms are likely to remain on a higher plateau during
[2] assess the potential effect of high food prices combined the next decade compared to the previous decade [7], un-
with the global financial crisis on food consumption, nu- derstanding the effect of food price inflation on child and
trition, and health by examining various transmission infant mortality is critical for the development of public
channels. They show that a food consumption score, a policies and social programs to help the vulnerable coun-
measure of diet frequency and diversity, was negatively tries and groups. In particular, an accurate assessment is
correlated with food prices in Haiti, Nepal, and Niger, and needed to help target the assistance, monitor the progress,
argue that a large number of vulnerable households in and evaluate the effect of such policies and programs.
developing countries reduced the quality and quantity of To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that
food consumption and faced a risk of malnutrition as a attempts to assess the precise effects of food price inflation
result of high food prices and the global financial crisis. on child health in developing countries. We undertake a
Drawing on experience from previous crises, Christian systematic regression analysis by employing a compre-
[3] identifies and elaborates upon a number of nutritional hensive panel dataset comprising infant (and child) mor-
channels by which the recent economic crisis and accom- tality rate, food price inflation, and other control variables
panying increases in food prices may affect infant and child for 95 developing countries during the period 2001–2011.4
mortality. Darnton-Hill and Cogill [4] also review past Specifically, we assess the effects of food price inflation on
food price shocks and their known impact on nutrition and
2
Bloem et al. [8] summarize a series of papers that explore the
1 relationships between crises and their cumulative impact among
Using panel data for 72 developing countries from 2000 to 2011,
vulnerable populations, particularly through hidden hunger.
Lee and Park [5] found that domestic food price inflation in 3
developing countries was strongly associated with the 1-year-lagged Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight international
value of global food price inflation (measured using the FAO food development goals with specific targets and means of measurement
price index). Durevall et al. [6] also found that world food prices that were officially established following the Millennium Summit of
determined the long-run evolution of domestic food prices in the United Nations in 2000.
4
Ethiopia, particularly during the global food crisis. Ninety-five countries are chosen on the basis of data availability.

123
Effects of food price inflation…
the short-term fluctuations of infant and child mortality
rates around their long-term trends. Thus, in contrast to the
literature on the long-term determinants of child health,5
this paper is in line with the literature investigating short-
term fluctuations of infant and child mortality rates.6
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The
‘‘Background’’ section offers a brief overview of trends of
child health and national food price inflation rates during
the period 2001–2011. The ‘‘Methods’’ section is an em-
pirical model to assess the effects of food price inflation on
health conditions, specifically infant mortality and child
mortality. ‘‘Results’’ presents empirical results and ‘‘Dis-
cussion’’ provides explanations for our findings. Finally,
the ‘‘Conclusions’’ section concludes the paper with a
summary of empirical findings and a discussion on policy
implications.
Background
Infant and child mortality in developing countries
MDG 4 aims at reducing child mortality rates (CMR) and
infant mortality rates (IMR) by two-thirds between 1990
and 2015. IMR is the number of deaths of children\1 year
of age per 1000 live births and CMR is the number of
deaths of children before their fifth birthday per 1000 live
births. IMR has been criticized as a measure of population
health because it is narrowly based and is often constructed
using projections and/or interpolations [24].7 Criticism has
also been raised that IMR can be underestimated, de-
pending on a particular country’s live birth criterion, vital
registration system, and reporting practices [25]. Despite
the contentious issues related to the measurement of IMR
and CMR, we still use these as measures of child health
because (1) data on infant mortality are available for a
large number of countries and are more reliable than other
indicators such as life mortality; (2) infant mortality is
5
For example, see Preston [9, 10]; Evans [11]; Houweling et al. [12];
Cutler et al. [13]; Lazarova [14]; Moore et al. [15]; Shell et al. [16];
Sores [17]; Mishra and Newhouse [18]; Kaufmann et al. [19];
Muldoon et al. [20]; and Pamuk, et al [21]. The main findings of these
papers are utilized in our choice of control variables in ‘‘Methods’’.
6
For example, see Gerdtham and Ruhm [22] on the short-term
effects of changes in unemployment on short-term changes in infant
mortality. See also Baird et al. [23] on the effects of short-term
fluctuations in aggregate income on short-term changes in infant
mortality.
7
More comprehensive measures such as disability-adjusted life
expectancy (DALE) have been suggested as alternatives. However,
these more comprehensive measures of population health are harder
to measure precisely and are, in fact, highly correlated with infant
mortality rate [26].
more sensitive than life expectancy to changes in economic
conditions [18].
This paper focuses on the period from 2001 to 2011,
during which the world experienced rapidly increasing
food commodity prices after a historic low level, as seen in
Fig. 1. During this period, both mortality rates decreased in
LDCs8 and other developing countries included in our
sample, as seen in Fig. 2, although they still remained at
substantially high levels, particularly in LDCs.9
Specifically, IMR (CMR) of LDCs in our sample de-
creased from 83.8 (136.5) in 2001 to 57.9 (86.5) in 2011,
while the corresponding figures for other developing
countries decreased from 32.2 (42.6) to 21.0 (28.2). Among
the individual countries included in the sample, Sierra
Leone (140.9), Angola (119.8), Mali (113.1), Nigeria
(109.3), Central African Republic (108.0), and Mozam-
bique (106.9) are the six countries that reported the greatest
figures for IMR in 2001. In 2011, Sierra Leone (120.1),
Angola (102.2), Central African Republic (92.8), Chad
(91.3), and Mali (81.4) were the top five countries in terms
of IMR. The Appendix Table 6 lists all of the developing
countries in our sample together with their annualized re-
duction rates of IMR for the period 2001–2011.
It is well known that long-term reduction in mortality
has been driven mainly by improvements in nutrition,
education, particularly female education, and social in-
frastructure such as water and sanitation, as well as medical
technology [10, 13]. We are more interested in short-term
fluctuations of infant and child mortality rates and their
possible association with food price inflation. Figure 3
shows the yearly rates of change in infant and child mor-
tality. It is interesting to note that while the annual re-
duction rates of infant and child mortality of other
developing countries were gradually decreasing, the annual
reduction rates for LDCs were increasing until 2007 and
then they decreased until 2010 (IMR) or 2011 (CMR).
It is not convincing to argue that the slowdown of re-
duction in infant and child mortality in LDCs in the late
2000s was due to a deceleration of improvement of medical
technology, as the trend of the reduction rate of mortality in
8
Least developed countries are the countries recognized by the
United Nations using the following three criteria: income, human
resources (indicators of nutrition, health, school enrolment, and
literacy), and economic vulnerability ((indicators of natural and trade-
related shocks, physical and economic exposure to shocks, and
smallness and remoteness). (http://unctad.org/en/Pages/ALDC/
Least%20Developed%20Countries/UN-list-of-Least-Developed-
Countries.aspx). Following the practice of the United Nations,
this paper uses LDCs as the acronym for least developed coun-
tries. In our sample, there are 30 LDCs and 65 other developing
countries determined by the United Nations as of 2011.
9
Infant and child mortality rates are taken from the United Nations
MDGs Indicators Database (http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/default.
aspx).
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Fig. 2 Trend of infant and child 160

mortality rates for LDCs and IMR, LDCs IMR, non-LDCs CMR, LDCs CMR, non-LDCs
other developing countries. 140
Source: authors’ calculations
using United Nations MDGs 120
indicators database
100

80

60

40

20

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fig. 3 Trend of annual -2

reduction rates of infant and 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
child mortality rates for LDCs -2.5
and other developing countries.
IMR, LDCs IMR, non-LDCs CMR, LDCs CMR, non-LDCs
Source: authors’ calculations
-3
using United Nations MDGs
indicators database
-3.5

-4

-4.5

-5

-5.5

-6

other developing countries does not appear to show a
similar pattern during the same period. Rather, this slow-
down may be largely due to the global food price hikes in
the late 2000s, as shown in Fig. 1. This paper aims to
provide empirical evidence in support of this supposition.
Food prices
As surveyed in the introductory section, one of the critical
factors influencing food security comprises high and rising
food prices because they increase hunger, malnutrition, and
mortality among infants and children of poor families.
Many studies such as FAO [27] and ADB [28] show that
high food prices have indeed increased world hunger and in
particular hit hardest many poor households in poor
countries.
This paper aims to assess the extent to which food price
inflation impacted infant and child mortality in 95
developing countries during the period 2001–2011. Annual
food price inflation is calculated as the annual growth rate
of the domestic food Consumer Price Index (CPI) for each
developing country, and the data for this are drawn from
the FAO (FAOSTAT; http://faostat.fao.org/).10 The base-
line year of food CPI is the year 2000 for most of the
countries, but some countries report different baseline
years.11
Figure 4 illustrates the trend of the calculated annual
food price inflation rates for LDCs and other developing
10
It should be noted that most countries report food CPI at the
national level, but some countries report food CPI only for urban
households (22 countries in our sample). As a robustness check, we
also conducted our empirical analysis after dropping the nations
which report only urban food CPI, and found similar results.
11
Because food price inflation rates are calculated using the growth
rate of the indices, different base years do not generate any problem in
our analysis.

123
Effects of food price inflation…
Fig. 4 Trend of food price 20
inflation rates in LDCs and
other developing countries. 18
Source: authors’ calculations
using statistics division of the 16
FAO (FAOSTAT) database
14
12
10
0
2001 2002 2003
countries in our sample. Inflation rates remained relatively
stable within the range from 6 to 12 % until the mid-2000s.
Following this, their trend shows an increase in 2007–2008
and then a decrease in 2009 before rising again in 2010.
Thus, the national food price inflation rates reflect the hikes
of global food commodity prices in the late 2000s. It is also
noted that food price inflation is generally higher in LDCs
than in other developing countries.
One interesting observation is that the rise of national
food prices in the late 2000s appears in parallel with the
slowdown of reduction in infant and child mortality rates
for LDCs, as noted above. The next section presents an
empirical model that can capture the effects of food price
inflation on infant and child mortality rates in developing
countries.
Methods
Model specification
In order to empirically assess the effects of food price in-
flation on child health, we construct a panel dataset cov-
ering 95 developing countries with observations over a
period of 11 years from 2001 to 2011. One point to note is
that we want to estimate short-run fluctuations of child
health that are driven by food price inflation, not long-run
structural determinants of child health; thus, we will de-
trend the series of infant and child mortality rates in a
variety of ways.
In our analysis, IMR will be used as the main dependent
variable and then, as a robustness check, it will be replaced
with the CMR rate as both are included in Goal 4 of the
MDGs. It seems logical to assume that the food price
LDCs Non-LDCs
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
inflation rate is stationary. That is, it stays around a given
rate, tending back to that rate when it is either higher or
lower. As seen in the previous section, both infant and
child mortality rates show very persistent decreasing trends
throughout the period 2001–2011. If these indices are not
stationary, the partial correlation between either one of
these indices and the food price inflation rate can be spu-
rious. Infant and child mortality rates, however, are likely
to follow a stationary process because logically they must
hit a lower bound of zero at some point. Younger [29]
shows that the formal tests reject the null of a unit root in
IMR or its log.
Therefore, in a similar way to Gerdtham and Ruhm [22],
as a benchmark specification we use the log of IMR (or
CMR) as a dependent variable and run regressions as a
function of food price inflation and other policy variables
as well as country-specific time trends:
MRit ¼ b0 þ b1 FPit þ b02 CVit þ c0i fi ðtÞ þ ht þ eit ð1Þ
where MRit is the log of IMR (or CMR) in country i and in
year t. FP is annual food price inflation rate and CV is a
vector of control variables,12 while year fixed effects ht
control for global changes in the same year and eit is a
mean-zero error term. Given that our focus is on high-
frequency changes in infant and child mortality (in terms of
any departure of mortality rates from trends), we include a
vector of country-specific time trends, fi(t), to allow for the
possibility that factors such as improvements in nutrition
and education as well as the adoption of medical
12
We also attempted to control for time-invariant differences among
regions and found similar results. Regions are East Asia and Pacific,
South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin
America and Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. The list of
countries within each region is presented in the Appendix Table 2.
123

technology over time vary across countries [10, 13].13 We
report the results with three different specifications of
country-specific time trends: linear, quadratic, and cubic.
Although the benchmark specification is less likely to
suffer from a risk of spurious regression in the sense of
Granger and Newbold [30] because both infant (child)
mortality rate and food price inflation are stationary, there is
still a risk that including country-specific time trends in a
regression does not allow for different time trends for dif-
ferent variables. This point seems important because while
food price inflation rates are stationary, all control variables
are also very persistent over time, as will be discussed in the
next sub-section. Therefore, as a second specification, we
conduct two-stage regressions. In the first stage, we obtain
the short-term fluctuations of infant and child mortality rates
around their long-term trends, which are the residuals from
regressing the log of infant (child) mortality rate on a flexible
formulation of country-specific deterministic trends:14
MRit ¼ c0i fi ðtÞ þ ht þ eit : ð2Þ
We also obtain the residuals from regressing country-
specific time trends on each control variable:
CVit ¼ c0i fi ðtÞ þ ht þ eit : ð3Þ
In both equations, a linear, quadratic, or cubic country-
specific time trend was used. It should be noted that food
price inflation rates are not de-trended because they are
stationary, as noted above.15
In the second stage, the de-trended component of infant
(child) mortality is regressed on food price inflation rates
and other de-trended control variables as follows:
0 control variable because the provision of sanitation is
MRit ¼ b0 þ b1 FPit þ b2 CVit þ ht þ eit : ð4Þ
where MR*it is the de-trended component of IMR or CMR
and CV* is a vector of de-trended control variables. Thus,
we estimate the effects of food price inflation on the fluc-
tuations of infant and child mortality rates around their
long-term trends.16
13
See also Jamison et al. [31] who show that differing rates of
technical progress are the principal source of the cross-country
variation in reduction rate of infant mortality rate.
14
This specification is also used by Baird et al. [23] in their study on
the effects of short-term fluctuations in aggregate income on short-
term changes in infant mortality.
15
Thus, we assume that not only the dependent variable but also all
of our control variables do not follow a random walk or are integrated
of order 1.
16
It also seems reasonable to say that not only high inflation rates of
food prices but also high food price levels affect infant and child
mortality. Because we are concerned with fluctuations of infant and
child mortality rates around their long-term trends, we only use food
price inflation rates (i.e., changes in price levels). Besides, food price
levels are not comparable across countries because different countries
use different base years in calculating commodity price indices.
123
H.-H. Lee et al.
Control variables
The main objective of this paper is to capture the effects of
food price inflation on child health in developing countries,
but there is no doubt that various other factors also influ-
ence health conditions in those countries. Therefore, the
regression analysis also includes various control variables
that may affect infant mortality and child mortality. In this
sub-section, we explain our control variables included in
Eqs. (1) and (4).
1. Log of per capita GDP, PPP (constant 2005 interna-
tional $): This is to capture the effects of short-term
fluctuations in aggregate income on short-term fluc-
tuations of infant and child mortality rates. Studies
such as Baird et al. [23] find that economic downturns
in terms of per capita GDP are associated with
increases in infant mortality. Lower income due to
economic downturns should translate into lower
expenditure on food and health at household level
[32].17 Source: World Bank, World Development
Indicators (WDI).
2. Log of per capita government expenditure on health,
PPP (constant 2005 international $): This variable is to
capture short-term effects of fluctuations in govern-
ment health expenditure on child health. The argument
for the role of public health is examined by many
studies [9–13, 16, 20]. Source: World Health Organi-
zation, Global Health Observatory Database.
3. Log of proportion of the population using an improved
sanitation facility: This variable is included as a
seen as an essential complement to the availability of
food in preventing child malnutrition. Even if the food
supply for children is sufficient, diarrhea hampers the
intake of calories and micro-nutrients and thereby
prevents adequate nutritional outcomes and increases
the likelihood of mortality [16, 20]. Source: United
Nations, Millennium Development Goals Indicators
Database.
4. Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism:
This variable is included also as a control variable
because political instability or violence may incur
human casualties including children [15]. Political
instability may also hinder both international and
17
From the longer-term perspective, the role of economic develop-
ment in health improvement in developing countries has been
controversial. Although income brings so many things—better
nutrition, better housing, the ability to pay for health care, as well
as the means for the public provision of clean water and sanitation,
cross-country evidence does not suggest that economic development
will improve health without deliberate public action [13, 33]. There
have also been studies investigating the impact of decline in child
mortality on economic growth [34].
Effects of food price inflation…
government assistance in maternal and infant health.
This is an index for governance performance, which
reflects the perceptions of the likelihood that the
government will be destabilized or overthrown by
unconstitutional or violent means, including political-
ly-motivated violence and terrorism. This index ranges
from -2.5 (weak governance) to 2.5 (strong gover-
nance). Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance
Indicators (http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world
wide-governance-indicators).
5. Government effectiveness: this is also an index for
governance performance, which reflects perceptions of
the quality of public services, the quality of the civil
service and the degree of its independence from
political pressures, the quality of policy formulation
and implementation, and the credibility of the govern-
ment’s commitment to such policies. We include this
index as a control variable because many studies
suggest that government effectiveness promotes child
health conditions in developing countries [14, 19]. This
index ranges from -2.5 (weak governance) to 2.5
(strong governance). Source: World Bank, Worldwide
Governance Indicators (http://data.worldbank.org/data-
catalog/worldwide-governance-indicators).
6. Log of youth population, age 0–14 (% of total). This
variable is included as a control variable because a
high share of youth population in total population is
expected to result in a smaller amount of assistance for
infant health per infant.18 Source: World Bank, World
Development Indicators (WDI).
Variables on female/male education and economic
inequality have also been suggested as determinants of
child health in the literature [13, 16, 35]. However, these
variables are excluded from the regression because annual
data for these variables are not available for developing
countries.19
Results
We report not only the results for all of the developing
countries included in our analysis but also the results es-
timated separately for LDCs and other developing coun-
tries, so as to assess whether and to what extent the impact
of food prices on child health may be more severe in LDCs,
18
Following Muldoon et al. [20] and Mishra and Newhouse [18], we
also used fertility rate as an alternative and found similar results.
19
We also initially included, as control variables, cereal import
dependency ratio, percent of arable land equipped for irrigation, value
of food imports in total merchandise exports, and natural disasters.
However, these variables did not show any significant results and
inclusion of these variables did not have any significant effect on the
results for our key variables.
as many studies reveal that the poorest countries were most
severely affected during the recent world food crisis [1,
36].
Table 1 reports the estimated results for a benchmark
equation, which includes country-specific time trends,
which are assumed to be linear, quadratic, or cubic. Re-
gardless of the type of country-specific time trend applied,
food price inflation rates carry positive and significant
coefficients in the equations for all developing countries.
When we split the sample into LDCs and other developing
countries, however, food price inflation rates are significant
only in the equations for LDCs, regardless of the type of
country-specific time trend. Specifically, according to the
results in columns four and five, a 10-percentage-point
increase in food price inflation rate in a particular year
results in an increase of IMR by 2.3 % in the same year,
ceteris paribus. That is, a 10-percentage-point-higher food
price inflation rate in 2001 would have resulted in an in-
crease of 1.48 infant deaths per 1000 live births.20
It should also be noted that per-capita GDP is negatively
associated with infant mortality in LDCs but not in other
developing countries. Thus, during economic downturns
and high food price inflation, child health is likely to be hit
hardest in LDCs. The results obtained when applying all
specifications also reveal that a greater amount of gov-
ernment health expenditure per capita appears to decrease
infant mortality in developing countries (particularly in
other developing countries). Infant mortality in other de-
veloping countries also appears to decrease with improved
sanitation facilities. In contrast, our benchmark specifica-
tion appears to reveal only a limited role for political sta-
bility and government effectiveness in decreasing infant
mortality. Lastly, infant mortality both in LDCs and in
other developing countries appears to increase with a
greater share of youth population.
As noted in the previous section, our benchmark results
are free from the risk of spurious regression, but the in-
clusion of country-specific time trends in the regression
equation does not allow for different time trends applicable
to different variables. Therefore, we report the results with
a specification using two-stage regressions (our preferred
specification). In the first stage, we remove the country-
specific trends by regressing log of IMR (and all ex-
planatory variables except food price inflation rates) on a
flexible formulation of time trends; in the second stage, we
regress the de-trended component of infant mortality on
food price inflation rates and other de-trended control
variables. The estimated results are summarized in Table 2.
20
1.48 is obtained by multiplying 0.023 by 64.55, which is the
average IMR of LDCs in the period 2006–2010, during which the
world witnessed food price hikes.
123
123
Table 1 Effects of food price inflation on infant mortality: a benchmark specification
Dependent variable: log of infant mortality rate
All developing countries LDCs Non-LDCs
Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Food inflation rate 0.0034** 0.0025** 0.0015* 0.0023* 0.0023** 0.0017*** 0.0015 0.0012 0.0006
(0.0017) (0.0011) (0.0008) (0.0013) (0.0009) (0.0007) (0.0018) (0.0013) (0.0010)
Log of GDP per capita, PPP -0.162 -0.174 -0.203* -0.224* -0.247** -0.252** 0.019 (0.139) -0.000 -0.032
(0.105) (0.111) (0.113) (0.116) (0.112) (0.122) (0.151) (0.146)
Log of government health expenditure -0.137* -0.132** -0.098* 0.006 (0.064) -0.013 0.013 (0.041) -0.200** -0.203** -0.178**
per capita (0.076) (0.066) (0.058) (0.051) (0.091) (0.086) (0.071)
Log of improved sanitation facilities -0.309*** -0.299*** -0.266*** -0.136 -0.152 -0.122 -0.539*** -0.475*** -0.465**
(0.078) (0.084) (0.089) (0.087) (0.104) (0.104) (0.155) (0.169) (0.181)
Political stability and absence of -0.039 -0.055* -0.032 -0.016 -0.051 -0.038 -0.055 -0.048 -0.014
violence (0.040) (0.031) (0.028) (0.044) (0.044) (0.040) (0.054) (0.044) (0.036)
Government effectiveness -0.060 0.014 (0.074) -0.039 -0.183** -0.039 -0.085 -0.059 -0.006 -0.062
(0.097) (0.066) (0.086) (0.055) (0.058) (0.127) (0.106) (0.080)
Log of youth population share 0.669*** 0.745*** 0.790*** 1.413*** 1.362*** 1.439*** 0.467** 0.564*** 0.581***
(0.184) (0.207) (0.221) (0.492) (0.463) (0.515) (0.186) (0.216) (0.223)
Constant 4.272*** 3.843*** 3.703*** 0.873 (2.174) 1.413 (2.029) 0.819 (2.184) 4.718*** 4.837*** 4.143***
(1.004) (1.099) (1.215) (1.401) (1.540) (1.590)
Number of observations 909 909 909 297 297 297 612 612 612
R2 0.959 0.987 0.995 0.924 0.974 0.990 0.937 0.980 0.993
All regression equations include linear, quadratic, and cubic country-specific time trend, respectively. Country-clustered standard errors are in parenthesis. Year dummies are included but not
shown for the sake of brevity. *** p \ 0.01, ** p \ 0.05, * p \ 0.1
H.-H. Lee et al.
 Table 2 Effects of food price inflation on infant mortality—second stage estimation using de-trended variables
Effects of food price inflation…

Dependent variable: log of infant mortality rate

All developing countries LDCs Non-LDCs
Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Food inflation rate 0.0030** 0.0016** 0.0011*** 0.0017 0.0016*** 0.0009*** 0.0018 0.0008 0.0008
(0.0014) (0.0007) (0.0003) 0.0012) (0.0005) (0.0002) (0.0015) (0.0009) (0.0005)
Log of GDP per capita, PPP -0.181** -0.091* -0.062* -0.229** -0.005 0.019 (0.027) -0.005 -0.167** -0.131***
(0.091) (0.048) (0.035) (0.114) (0.038) (0.126) (0.068) (0.051)
Log of government health -0.118* -0.250*** -0.290*** 0.015 (0.057) -0.249** -0.260** -0.188** -0.087 -0.158
expenditure per capita (0.067) (0.080) (0.070) (0.108) (0.118) (0.082) (0.119) (0.098)
Log of improved sanitation facilities -0.292*** -0.261*** -0.215*** -0.130 -0.147* -0.117 -0.526*** -0.440*** -0.396***
(0.070) (0.068) (0.064) (0.079) (0.089) (0.082) (0.146) (0.146) (0.142)
Political stability and absence of -0.030 -0.056** -0.038* -0.013 -0.053 -0.040 -0.044 -0.055 -0.023
violence (0.039) (0.028) (0.023) (0.041) (0.038) (0.034) (0.052) (0.039) (0.029)
Government effectiveness -0.102 -0.000 -0.037 -0.202** -0.059 -0.089* -0.103 -0.004 -0.046
(0.094) (0.066) (0.053) (0.080) (0.052) (0.051) (0.123) (0.094) (0.066)
Log of youth population share 0.682*** 0.803*** 0.868*** 1.431*** 1.362*** 1.399*** 0.497*** 0.629*** 0.696***
(0.182) (0.189) (0.186) (0.473) (0.430) (0.445) (0.186) (0.198) (0.192)
Constant 0.071 (0.054) 0.080** 0.048* (0.027) 0.068 (0.333) 0.092 (0.238) 0.077 (0.176) 0.118* 0.113** 0.067**
(0.039) (0.064) (0.048) (0.031)
Number of observations 909 909 909 297 297 297 612 612 612
R2 0.846 0.867 0.862 0.953 0.967 0.962 0.695 0.705 0.701
Except for food price inflation rate, all dependent and explanatory variables are de-trended in the first stage, using linear, quadratic, and cubic country-specific time trend, respectively. Country-
clustered standard errors are in parenthesis. Year dummies are included but not shown for the sake of brevity. *** p \ 0.01, ** p \ 0.05, * p \ 0.1

123

In a similar way to the results obtained from the first
specification, food price inflation rate is positively and
significantly associated (at the 1 % level in both quadratic
and cubic de-trended specifications) with the de-trended
component of IMR in LDCs. Specifically, according to the
results obtained on using a de-trended measure with a
quadratic time trend as reported in column five, a 10-per-
centage-point increase in food price inflation rate in a
particular year results in an increase of IMR by 1.6 % in
the same year. That is, a 10-percentage-point higher food
price inflation rate in 2001 would have resulted in an in-
crease of 1.03 infant deaths per 1000 live births.21 This is
smaller than the figure that we obtained from the bench-
mark specification but is nevertheless relatively large, since
the average number of live births per year in LDCs was
27.8 million during the period 2006–2010.22 The estimated
effect of a 10-percentage-point increase of food prices in
LDCs translates to 28,608 more infant deaths per year in
LDCs.
Thus, we present strong empirical evidence that rising
food prices have a serious detrimental impact on infant
health in LDCs and thus supports the findings of many
previous studies [1, 36], revealing that the poorest coun-
tries were most severely affected during the recent world
food crisis. This result is consistent with the observation
that, in lower-income countries, food accounts for a higher
share of household expenditures. Besides, LDCs are likely
to be net food importing countries. For example, Valdés
[37] report that during 2005–2009, all of the 35 low-in-
come countries were net food importing, while of 51 low-
middle income countries, 37 countries were net food im-
porting and 14 countries were net food exporting. Hence,
there should be increased efforts by both LDC governments
and the international community to alleviate the detri-
mental link between food price inflation and infant
mortality.
Economic downturns also appear to increase infant
mortality in most of the developing world (LDCs in a linear
de-trended specification and other developing countries in
both quadratic and cubic de-trended specifications). This
finding is consistent with Baird et al. [23], who also found
that infant mortality increases during periods of economic
downturn in developing countries because economic
downturns may result in reduced household consumption
of nutritious foods.
The results for food price inflation and per-capita GDP
suggest that the global economic and food crises of the late
21
1.03 is obtained by multiplying 0.016 by 64.55, which is the
average IMR of LDCs in 2006-2010, during which period the world
witnessed food price hikes.
22
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects:
The 2012 Revision, United Nations.
123
H.-H. Lee et al.
2000s would have had a serious detrimental impact on the
health condition of infants (and, more generally, the entire
population) in developing countries, and in particular the
poorest countries. Thus, policies that protect the health
status of infants in developing countries may become
especially important during periods of concurrent eco-
nomic downturn and high food price inflation.
Our results also show that infant mortality in both LDCs
and other developing countries may decrease with in-
creased government health expenditure and improved
sanitation facilities. Thus, governments’ strong commit-
ment to public health as evidenced by increasing health
expenditure and improving sanitation facilities is crucial in
improving child health in developing countries.
Once again, the results obtained on applying all of the
specifications reveal that infant mortality in both LDCs and
other developing countries increases with a greater share of
youth population. This suggests that an increase in the
share of youth population in total population increases in-
fant mortality rates because with a greater share of youth
population each infant on average is expected to receive a
smaller amount of health assistance. In contrast, political
stability and government effectiveness appear to contribute
only to a limited extent to a reduction in infant mortality in
both LDCs and other developing countries. It should be
noted, however, that by de-trending IMR and other control
variables, we are trying to capture the effects of food price
inflation and other control variables on short-term fluc-
tuations of IMR around their long-term trends. Therefore,
our results do not necessarily suggest that political stability
and government effectiveness do not contribute to lower
IMRs in developing countries in the long run.
CMR is equally important in monitoring child health
conditions in developing countries. Therefore, we re-esti-
mated the figures by applying all of the specifications after
replacing IMR with CMR as the dependent variable. The
results obtained by the two-stage regressions, constituting
our preferred specification, are reported in Table 3. These
results are very similar to those outlined above: child
mortality is also detrimentally influenced by food price
inflation, especially in LDCs. Also, economic downturns
appear to increase child mortality in LDCs.
Discussion
As noted in the introductory section, the adverse effect of
high and rising food prices on infant and child mortality
can be realized through malnutrition and under-nutrition
[38–40]. Having reviewed the impact of past food price
shocks on nutrition, Darnton-Hill and Cogill [4] conclude
that the shocks initially compromise maternal and child
nutrition, mainly through a reduction in dietary quality and
Effects of food price inflation…

Table 3 Effects of food price inflation on child mortality—second stage estimation using de-trended variables
Dependent variable: log of child mortality rate
LDCs Non-LDCs
Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Food inflation rate 0.0015 0.0018*** 0.0011*** 0.0023 (0.0017) 0.0011 (0.0010) 0.0010*
(0.0014) (0.0006) (0.0002) (0.0006)
Log of GDP per capita, PPP -0.244* -0.253** (0.117) -0.287** (0.129) -0.006 (0.138) -0.092 (0.133) -0.166 (0.112)
(0.126)
Log of government health -0.022 -0.039 (0.047) 0.017 (0.035) -0.184** -0.168** -0.137**
expenditure per capita (0.067) (0.089) (0.072) (0.054)
Log of improved sanitation -0.137 -0.168 (0.105) -0.142 (0.096) -0.703*** -0.595*** -0.539***
facilities (0.096) (0.174) (0.172) (0.164)
Political stability and absence 0.032 (0.047) -0.023 (0.045) -0.016 (0.039) -0.040 (0.057) -0.056 (0.041) -0.026 (0.031)
of violence
Government effectiveness -0.227** -0.073 (0.062) -0.134** (0.068) -0.109 (0.129) 0.005 (0.099) -0.040 (0.069)
(0.099)
Log of youth population share 2.899*** 2.742*** 2.572*** 0.572*** 0.718*** 0.785***
(0.640) (0.576) (0.560) (0.205) (0.218) (0.213)
Constant -0.362 -0.204 (0.285) -0.098 (0.209) 0.088 (0.073) 0.090* (0.055) 0.047 (0.036)
(0.399)
Number of observations 297 297 297 612 612 612
R2 0.946 0.958 0.947 0.695 0.698 0.694
Except for the food price inflation rate, all dependent and explanatory variables are de-trended in the first stage, using linear, quadratic, and cubic
country-specific time trend, respectively. Country clustered standard errors are in parenthesis. Year dummies are included but not shown for the
sake of brevity. *** p \ 0.01, ** p \ 0.05, * p \ 0.1. Authors’ calculations using Statistics Division of the FAO (FAOSTAT) database

Fig. 5 Nutritional pathways by

which the economic crisis and
increase in food prices may
affect child mortality. Source:
Fig. 1 in [3]

an increase in micronutrient deficiencies. Christian [3] also
elucidates numerous nutritional pathways by which child-
hood mortality can increase as a result of food price in-
creases (see Fig. 5). These include increased prevalence of
maternal undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and
childhood undernutrition.
In order to test the above proposition, we estimate two
different sets of equations. First, in order to investigate the
linkage between nutrition and mortality of infants and
children, we regress de-trended components of infant and
child mortality rates on the de-trended component of
prevalence of undernourishment. Second, where in the first

123
 H.-H. Lee et al.

All dependent and explanatory variables are de-trended in the first stage, using linear, quadratic, and cubic country-specific time trend, respectively. Country-clustered standard errors are in
stage we find a positive influence of undernourishment on

0.525***

0.271***
(0.165)

(0.045)
mortality rates, we investigate the linkage between nutri-

Cubic

0.442
tion and food price inflation by regressing the de-trended

(12)

503
component of under-nourishment on food price inflation
and de-trended components of various control variables

Quadratic

0.523***

0.382***
(0.157)

(0.064)
used in the equations for infant and child mortality.

0.434
Table 4 reports the results for the linkage between un-

(11)

503
dernourishment and mortality rates of infants and children
in LDCs and other developing countries, respectively.23 In

Non-LDCs

0.442***

0.479***
(0.161)

(0.081)
all equations using various de-trended measures, we find

Linear

0.359
that in both LDCs and other developing countries alike,

Dependent variable: log of child mortality rate

(10)

503
short-term increases in undernourishment result in short-
term increases in infant and child mortality rates.

0.730***
(0.103)

(0.051)
0.261**
Having found that undernourishment leads to an in-

Cubic

0.927
crease in infant and child mortality in the developing

337
(9)
world, we next examine the nexus between food price in-
flation and under-nourishment by regressing de-trended

Quadratic

1.023***
(0.114)

(0.072)
0.263**
components of prevalence of undernourishment on food

0.936
price inflation rate and other de-trended components of the

337
(8)
Table 4 Effects of undernourishment on infant and child mortality—second stage estimation using de-trended variables
control variables used in the equations for IMR and

parenthesis. Year dummies are included but not shown for the sake of brevity. *** p \ 0.01, ** p \ 0.05, * p \ 0.1
CMR.24 The results are reported in Table 5.

0.252***

1.293***
(0.094)

(0.082)
It is striking to observe that only in LDCs do higher

Linear
LDCs

0.941
food price inflation rates cause an upward deviation of

337
(7)
undernourishment from its long-term trend. Thus, having
combined all of the results that we obtained from various

0.420***

0.267***
(0.142)

(0.038)
regressions, we can conclude that high food price inflation
Cubic

0.504
rates cause an increase in undernourishment only in LDCs

503
(6)
and this in turn leads to an increase in infant and child
mortality in these poorest countries.
Quadratic

0.412***

0.374***
(0.137)

(0.054)
The question then remains as to how the prevalence of

0.488
503
undernourishment can be effectively controlled, especially
(5)

when food price inflation is high in LDCs. It is reasonable

Non-LDCs

to suppose that this question can be answered by exam-

0.472***
(0.139)

(0.069)
0.352**

ining the results for the relevant control variables. Inter-

Linear

0.416
Dependent variable: log of infant mortality rate

503

estingly, per-capita income, political stability, and

(4)

government effectiveness all carry negative and significant

coefficients only in the sample for LDCs, suggesting that
0.261***

0.625***
(0.086)

(0.040)

not only business cycles but also short-term changes in

Cubic

0.951
337

political stability and government effectiveness may

(3)

23
MDG 1 calls for halving the proportion of people who suffer from
Quadratic

0.248***

0.879***
(0.090)

(0.057)

hunger as its third target and the prevalence of undernourishment is an

0.954

indicator for this target. This refers to the proportion of the population
337
(2)

below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption. This

variable is taken from the United Nations MDGs Indicators Database
(http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/default.aspx). Note that UNICEF,
0.253***

1.107***
(0.076)

(0.065)

WHO, and the World Bank [41] report estimates of child malnutrition
Linear
LDCs

0.958

that is potentially more closely related to infant and child mortality,

337
(1)

but these data are available only for a limited number of years for
most countries.
24
Among the control variables, government health expenditure, a
observations
Log of under-
nourishment

measure of improved sanitation facilities, and youth population share

Number of

are less likely to be associated with undernourishment. However, we

Constant

report the results with the inclusion of these variables for the sake of
comparison. In different regressions, we removed these variables and
R2

found that the results for other variables remained almost unchanged.

123
Effects of food price inflation…

Table 5 Effects of food price inflation on prevalence of undernourishment—second stage estimation using de-trended variables
Dependent variable: log of under-nourishment
LDCs Non-LDCs
Linear Quadratic Cubic Linear Quadratic Cubic
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Food inflation rate 0.0028** 0.0016** 0.0005 (0.0005) -0.0035 -0.0013 -0.0004
(0.0012) (0.0007) (0.0029) (0.0012) (0.0006)
Log of GDP per capita, -0.257* (0.154) -0.282* (0.169) -0.350** (0.170) -0.188 (0.216) -0.179 (0.160) -0.096 (0.146)
PPP
Log of government health 0.047 (0.095) 0.071 (0.056) 0.085* (0.050) 0.052 (0.123) 0.048 (0.081) -0.006 (0.051)
expenditure per capita
Log of improved sanitation -0.007 (0.071) 0.048 (0.076) 0.038 (0.086) -0.180 (0.147) -0.102 (0.153) -0.076 (0.155)
facilities
Political stability and -0.108** -0.103*** -0.125*** -0.026 (0.066) -0.030 (0.060) 0.010 (0.051)
absence of violence (0.045) (0.038) (0.039)
Government effectiveness -0.428*** -0.330*** -0.208*** 0.086 (0.176) 0.062 (0.141) -0.005 (0.104)
(0.112) (0.101) (0.074)
Log of youth population 1.266 (0.958) 0.747 (0.821) 0.630 (0.828) 0.430 (0.404) 0.458 (0.454) 0.523 (0.479)
share
Constant -0.900** -0.439 (0.273) -0.303 (0.212) -0.240** -0.184** -0.148***
(0.413) (0.106) (0.077) (0.054)
Number of observations 276 276 276 383 383 383
R2 0.673 0.669 0.548 0.205 0.224 0.202
Except for food price inflation rate, all dependent and explanatory variables are de-trended in the first stage, using linear, quadratic, and cubic
country-specific time trend, respectively. Country-clustered standard errors are in parenthesis. Year dummies are included but not shown for the
sake of brevity. *** p \ 0.01, ** p \ 0.05, * p \ 0.1

impact the status of nourishment in LDCs. Thus, with
improved political stability and government effectiveness,
the expectation arises that the adverse effect of food price
inflation on nourishment in LDCs can be mitigated.25
Conclusions
High and increasing food prices can generate an immediate
threat to the security of a household’s food supply, thereby
undermining population health, retarding human develop-
ment, and lowering labor productivity for the economy in
the long term. Understanding the effect of a food crisis on
nutrition and health is therefore critical for the develop-
ment of public policies and social programs to help the
vulnerable groups of individuals, households, and countries
alike. In particular, an accurate assessment is needed to
help target the assistance, monitor the progress, and eval-
uate the effects of the policies and programs.
25
It should be noted that this finding does not necessarily mean that
the adverse effect of food price inflation on nourishment can become
weaker in the countries with better political stability and government
effectiveness. We tested this possibility by adding inflation rates
interacting with the measures of political stability and government
effectiveness, respectively, but we found no significant results for the
interaction terms.
Using a panel dataset covering 95 developing countries
for the period of 2001–2011, this paper provides a com-
prehensive assessment of the short-term effects of food
price inflation on nutrition and child health as measured in
terms of infant mortality rate and child mortality rate. On
applying any particular one of various specifications
adopted to control for any country-specific deterministic
trend, we have found that rising food prices have a sig-
nificant detrimental effect on nourishment and conse-
quently raise the levels of both infant and child mortality in
developing countries, and especially in LDCs.
We have also found that economic downturns increase
infant and child mortality in most of the developing world.
Thus, policies that protect the health status of infants and
children in developing countries may become especially
important during periods of concurrent economic downturn
and high food price inflation. In this regard, international
community’s enhanced efforts to provide food and health
aid to these countries are in great need during these difficult
periods.26
For all of the specifications employed, government
health expenditure per capita has a negative relationship
with infant and child mortality. The results also show that
26
For recent discussions on food and health aid allocation, the reader
is referred to Fielding [42], and Lee and Lim [43].

123
 H.-H. Lee et al.

infant mortality in both LDCs and other developing
countries may decrease with improved sanitation facilities.
Thus, governments’ strong commitment to public health as
evidenced by increasing health expenditure and improving
sanitation facilities is crucial in improving child health in
developing countries.
We acknowledge that differences should be expected
among LDCs regarding the extent of the influence of food
prices on child health. We also acknowledge that within
each LDC there should be differences among households.
In fact, FAO [32] reports an empirical investigation
yielding the result that the vast majority of poor house-
holds are hit hardest by higher food prices. Also, Neha
and Quisumbing [44] provide empirical evidence that in
rural Ethiopia the impact of the 2007–2008 food price
crisis was greater for female-headed households. Ac-
cordingly, it would be useful to undertake micro-level
investigations of the effect of food price inflation on
mortality of infants and children in developing countries,
and especially in LDCs.
Acknowledgments This study was supported by 2014 Research
Grant from Kangwon National University (No. C1010781-01-01).
Appendix
See Table 6.

Table 6 Appendix table: list of countries and summary statistics

Country group No. Country Infant mortality Annual reduction rate Food price
(per 1000) of infant mortality (%) inflation rate (%)
2001 2011 Average Average

LDCs 1 Angola 119.8 102.2 -1.6 29.5

2 Bangladesh 61.5 35.2 -5.5 7.4
3 Benin 88.5 60.4 -3.7 3.8
4 Bhutan 56.9 36.9 -4.2 6.1
5 Burkina Faso 95.2 67.7 -3.2 4.5
6 Burundi 91.1 68.9 -2.7 8.9
7 Cambodia 75.9 35.5 -7.3 5.2
8 Central African Republic 108 92.8 -1.5 4.5
9 Chad 104.3 91.3 -1.4 4.8
10 Ethiopia 86.6 48.6 -5.5 14.8
11 Gambia 61.1 49.9 -2.0 7.8
12 Haiti 73 57.7 -2.4 12.4
13 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 81.9 56 -3.8 8.6
14 Lesotho 81 72.7 -0.6 7.9
15 Madagascar 66 42.2 -4.4 10.1
16 Malawi 96.5 49.2 -6.7 10.8
17 Mali 113.1 81.4 -3.2 3.5
18 Mauritania 74.4 65.8 -1.2 6.1
19 Mozambique 106.9 67.2 -4.8 12.1
20 Nepal 57.4 34.9 -4.9 8.3
21 Niger 97.7 64.8 -4.0 4.9
22 Rwanda 100.6 40.8 -8.5 8.7
23 Samoa 17.8 15.4 -1.5 6.5
24 Sao Tome and Principe 54.9 39 -3.3 16.8
25 Senegal 67.7 46.2 -3.6 3.8
26 Sierra Leone 140.9 120.1 -1.6 13.7
27 Uganda 85.4 48.9 -5.6 8.8
28 United Republic of Tanzania 75.4 39.3 -6.3 9.1
29 Yemen 67.4 47.7 -3.4 12.8
30 Zambia 95.3 58.7 -4.7 12.1

123
Effects of food price inflation…

Table 6 continued
Country group No. Country Infant mortality Annual reduction rate Food price
(per 1000) of infant mortality (%) inflation rate (%)
2001 2011 Average Average

Non-LDCs 31 Albania 24 15.6 -4.4 2.8

32 Algeria 28.2 17.8 -4.6 5.3
33 Argentina 17.6 13 -2.9 10.7
34 Armenia 25.3 15.4 -4.9 5.6
35 Azerbaijan 55.7 32 -5.4 9.1
36 Belarus 10.2 4.3 -8.9 16.8
37 Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 54.7 34 -4.7 5.6
38 Bosnia and Herzegovina 8.4 6 -3.5 4.2
39 Botswana 54.5 42.9 -2.4 8.9
40 Brazil 27.1 13.6 -6.8 7.6
41 Bulgaria 17.1 10.9 -4.4 4.5
42 Cameroon 89.4 63 -3.4 3.8
43 Cape Verde 29.1 19.5 -4.1 4.7
44 China 28.3 12.9 -7.6 5.6
45 Colombia 20.7 15.6 -2.9 6.2
46 Congo 74.6 63.9 -1.5 4.4
47 Costa Rica 10.6 8.8 -2.2 9.2
48 Dominican Republic 31.4 23.4 -2.9 10.6
49 Ecuador 27.2 20.4 -2.9 6.3
50 Egypt 33.8 18.7 -5.8 10.5
51 El Salvador 25 14.2 -5.5 3.3
52 Fiji 20.1 19.2 -0.6 4.7
53 Georgia 27.9 18.5 -4.3 8.3
54 Ghana 64.8 49.9 -2.6 12.0
55 Grenada 13.1 11.7 -1.3 3.7
56 Guatemala 38.4 27.4 -3.4 8.4
57 Honduras 29.8 20.1 -3.9 6.3
58 Hungary 9.1 5.5 -5.1 6.1
59 Indonesia 39.5 26.7 -3.9 8.4
60 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 27 15.7 -5.3 17.2
61 Iraq 35.2 29 -1.9 4.3
62 Jamaica 19.4 14.9 -2.7 11.6
63 Jordan 22.6 16.8 -2.9 5.3
64 Kazakhstan 36.3 18.1 -6.9 9.8
65 Kenya 67.2 49.8 -2.8 12.8
66 Kyrgyzstan 40.4 25.1 -4.9 3.9
67 Malaysia 8.1 7.3 -1.5 3.1
68 Maldives 32.5 10 -11.6 9.4
69 Mauritius 15 12.8 -1.9 7.3
70 Mexico 20.3 14.3 -3.6 5.6
71 Mongolia 45.4 24 -6.2 11.1
72 Morocco 40.6 27.7 -3.8 2.8
73 Namibia 47.9 29.2 -4.4 6.7
74 Nicaragua 31 21.3 -3.8 9.3
75 Nigeria 109.3 80.1 -3.1 12.4
76 Pakistan 85.8 70.7 -2.0 10.1

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 H.-H. Lee et al.

Table 6 continued
Country group No. Country Infant mortality Annual reduction rate Food price
(per 1000) of infant mortality (%) inflation rate (%)
2001 2011 Average Average

77 Panama 21.3 16.3 -2.6 4.3

78 Paraguay 26.3 19.4 -3.0 9.0
79 Peru 28.4 14.8 -6.4 3.3
80 Philippines 29.9 24.1 -2.1 4.7
81 Republic of Moldova 23.9 15.6 -4.3 7.7
82 Romania 22.1 11.2 -6.3 7.8
83 Saint Lucia 15 15.2 -0.1 3.9
84 Seychelles 11.9 11.5 -0.5 7.9
85 South Africa 52.3 34.2 -3.6 7.0
86 Suriname 27.6 19.1 -3.7 10.3
87 Swaziland 80.7 57 -3.0 11.5
88 Syrian Arab Republic 19.2 12.6 -4.1 10.4
89 Thailand 18.3 11.8 -4.3 4.8
90 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 13.4 7.5 -6.5 2.5
91 Tonga 15.1 11.4 -2.8 7.2
92 Tunisia 23.6 14.4 -4.9 4.4
93 Turkey 28.3 12.9 -7.6 15.5
94 Ukraine 15.1 9.7 -4.6 7.5
95 Vietnam 23.8 18.6 -2.4 10.5
Listed countries are included in the analysis

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