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How To Win The Lottery According To Math - Lotterycodex
How To Win The Lottery According To Math - Lotterycodex
How To Win The Lottery According To Math - Lotterycodex
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But before I talk about the good news, let’s discuss the bad news
first. Once you understand the obstacle that prevents you from
winning, it will be easy for you to come up with a sensible lotto
strategy — one that works.
Table of Contents
14. Don’t use statistics to predict the outcome of the lottery draws
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The
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bad
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Story short, winning the lottery is not easy. That’s why the lottery is
considered a gambling activity.
The odds in favor of winning the U.S. Powerball 5/69 grand prize
are one to 292 Million.
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And the worst odds I have seen so far are that of the South African
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and the Italian Superenalotto where you choose from 90 numbers.
To win in this kind of lottery format is a modern-day equivalent of
wishing for a miracle.
Any statistician will tell you right off the bat, your chances of
winning the lottery is so minuscule.
So a lot of people say the possibility that you get killed by a shark
is much higher than winning the lottery. 1 Of course, that’s not the
whole truth. The truth, the probability that you meet the shark is
zero when you don’t swim in the ocean. 2
But how likely that you are going to win soon this year?
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So don’t take the lottery too seriously. Play just for fun. And the
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lottery is fun and quite interesting as I will prove it to you later.
So occasionally playing just for fun and taking a shot at the tease
of “What if I win” that comes with it is not a bad idea at all.
In fact, some people may go all the way out to rig the lottery with
no success. 4
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And lastly, no fortune teller or any psychic guy next door can help
you.
Let’s talk about what you can do to improve your number selection
strategy.
How?
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But buying more tickets is useless if you are making the wrong
choices. This article will tell you exactly how to pick numbers and
be mathematically correct.
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I will reveal to you the many mathematical techniques you can use
to improve your winnability. For the most part, we will deal a lot
with probability theory and combinatorics.
With a little bit of math and a little bit of perseverance, you can
play your game with the best shot possible.
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By the way, in the free lottery guide, you will get to know the
complete formula for lottery success to help you start your exciting
journey on the right foot.
Let’s begin.
You should go for a lottery that offers better odds even though it
provides less jackpot. It is easier to win that way.
But how do you know which one gives you better odds?
The first factor is the number field. The lesser the number field, the
better the odds. For example, a lottery with 42 balls is better than a
lottery with 49 balls.
The second factor is the pick size. The lesser the pick size, the
better your odds of winning. For instance, a pick-5 game is better
than a pick-6 lotto game.
When you consider the two factors together, you get a better
picture of the game’s overall odds.
The table below will give you an idea of the odds of the lottery.
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Based on the table above, the 5/20 system offers better odds for
you.
But watch out for the extra ball. The extra ball may affect your
chances of winning.
Some lottery systems take the extra ball from the same drum. For
instance, the Tattslotto system takes two supplementary numbers
from the same drum which makes this lottery a favorable one in
comparison to U.S. Powerball or the U.S. Mega Millions.
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However, some lottery systems take the extra ball from a different
drum. A system like this makes the lottery a harder one to win.
For instance, the U.S. Powerball lets you pick 5 from 69 numbers.
If not for the extra red ball, your odds would have been one is to 11
million. But because you need to match the red Powerball to win
the grand prize by choosing numbers from 1 to 26, your odds
become one is to 292 million.
Where:
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n = 49
r=6
Total combinations = 13,983,816
The formula means you have 1 way to win over 13,983,815 ways
to lose.
The table below shows you the odds of the most popular lotteries
in the world.
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From the table above, it is Trinidad/Tobago Cash Pot 5/20 with the
lowest odds. This lottery is an excellent game to play if you live in
Trinidad/Tobago.
I suggest you define what you want in life. How much is big
enough depends on you.
Ultimately, you choose the lottery game that is not too hard to win
yet offers a jackpot prize that is big enough to change your life.
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You want to know how to win the lottery right? So choose your
lottery game wisely.
Playing the lottery is like finding a needle in a haystack. The size of the haystack really matters.
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Of course, I agree.
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But why?
If you really want to win the lottery, you have to select your
combination through strong mathematical reasoning.
So what is this mathematical foundation that will help you get the
best shot in the lottery?
Probability = Chance
Odds = Advantage
BUT you have the power to play your game and give yourself the
best ratio of success to failure.
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In a 6/49 game, there are only 134,596 ways you can combine six
numbers composed of purely even numbers. At the right moment,
you have 1 to 134,596 advantage of winning the jackpot prize.
In a 6/49 game, there are 4,655,200 ways you can combine six
numbers with 3-odd and 3-even composition.
As you can see, while all combinations have the same probability,
these distinct combinations can be further divided into
combinatorial groups based on their composition. Each group
exhibits a certain measure of advantage:
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It’s not easy to win the lottery. But if you choose to play the lottery
with a better ratio of success to failure, you’re putting yourself
closer to winning the jackpot prize.
Playing the lottery is like catching fish where the fish are.
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Any external force that will disturb the random nature of a lottery
game will distort the validity of any probability calculations we
make. We might as well throw away what we have learned from
our math teachers.
That means you can calculate your best choices. And you won’t
be mathematically wrong because a random event like the lottery
with finite possibilities, the actual results always agree with
mathematical prediction. (You will see the proof later)
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can predict the next winning numbers. You cannot predict the next
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winning numbers. No one can.
The idea is simple. You can use probability theory to choose the
best combination and be confident that you’re right most of the
time.
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Since the lottery follows the dictate of probability, you can be sure
that a mathematical prediction will always put you on the right
track. These calculated choices are possible because the lottery is
truly random.
Don’t pick numbers blindly. You have to see how randomness works in a lottery game.
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And that’s the main reason some people tried not to miss out on
the opportunity by playing every draw as much as possible.
I know.
FOMO is a big deal because you worry that your numbers may
come up if you don’t play.
The likelihood that your numbers will come out is about 1 in 292
million (if you play the U.S. Powerball).
Again, you must understand the odds. If you play just one ticket
per week, it will take you 5.6 million years to win. So winning may
not happen to you in your lifetime.
The best thing you can do is to save your money until you can buy
more tickets.
More tickets will give you more probability of winning. And that is
especially true when you employ the principle of covering. We will
talk more about this covering principle in the lottery wheels section
below.
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For illustration, we will use the lotto 6/49 system. But regardless of
the lottery format, the basic concept is the same.
As you go on buying more tickets, the probability that you hit the
jackpot prize is improving as well.
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And so on.
10/13,983,816 = 10 x (1/13,983,816)
However, playing one ticket each draw won’t allow you to use the
power of covering. Covering is such a powerful mathematical
method in combinatorics that can dramatically improve your
chances of winning (see The Lottery and the Winning Formula
According to Math for more information about combinatorics).
The table below will show you the probability of winning the
jackpot based on the number of distinct tickets you play on a lotto
6/49 system.
Notice that on the first line, I put zero to indicate that if you don’t
buy a lotto ticket, then winning is impossible.
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And when I say afford, I mean the money that you can afford to
lose for the price of FUN. Remember, the lottery is a random
game.
The table below shows you the calculation for different lotteries.
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Not so fast.
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So what is EV?
The EV or expected value is the gauge that tells you when the
lottery is profitable and when it is not.
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Compare that EV at the time when the U.S. Powerball reached the
$1.5 Billion mark in January of 2016. We can see a huge
improvement in EV.
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The table above tells that playing the Powerball in January 2016 is
“probably” a good idea.
So in theory:
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You’ll probably think that the only time you get into ticket-buying
frenzy is when the lottery is at its positive EV. Right?
Wrong …
You add other factors such as taxes, the annuity, the cash option,
the possibility of splitting the jackpot prize, and you’ll end up with a
negative expected value.
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The positive expected value only works when a lottery has a roll-
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down clause. This lottery loophole made those MIT students
profited from the Massachusetts Cash WinFall for 7 years. See the
lottery guide on how this roll-down clause works in your favor.
So the next time you play, try to ask yourself: “Do I have a positive
EV?” Get some pen and paper and get your math done.
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Since the expected value of the lottery is always negative, make sure to play only the money that you
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They do.
When you fail to count the odd and even numbers in your
combination, it hurts your chances of winning.
In this case, we need to find the many different ways odd, and
even numbers are combined to form a combination.
In a lotto 649 system, there are 7 ways you can combine numbers
with odd and even numbers.
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And the way to find out the answer is through the use of probability
theory and combinatorial math.
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Probability calculation
To get the probability of each pattern, we use the same probability
formula described earlier. Therefore, the probability of these odd-
even patterns are as follows:
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Of course, you don’t get any prize by matching the pattern. You
only win when you match all the numbers.
Probability doesn’t tell you exactly what will happen. But it does
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give you a hint of what the outcome will most likely be in the future.
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= 0.33484590659860100 x 734
= 245.776895443
= 246 times
Looking at the comparison graph above, with one quick look, the
agreement between prediction and actual observed frequency is
clear.
It tells you that you can literally predict the lottery (to an extent).
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to occur more frequently and how many times they are more likely
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to occur at a given number of draws.
You don’t need the past lottery results to know what works in the
lottery.
n = 59
r=6
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But the study is not just coincidental. The truth is that probability
theory applies to all kinds of lottery systems. Below are more
proofs from other lottery systems:
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See How to win the Euro Jackpot 5/50 game according to math.
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See How to win the Euro Millions 5/50 game according to math.
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See How to win the Irish Lotto 6/49 game according to math.
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Did you notice how close probability predictions are to the actual
results of the lottery?
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When picking lotto numbers, make sure that you balance the mixture of odd and even numbers.
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This time, let’s make use of a 5/69 lotto game. A famous example
of a 5/69 game is the U.S. Powerball.
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Some lottery system requires no extra ball, but some games such
as the U.S. Powerball needs an extra ball to win the jackpot.
In both cases, we will only use the primary balls, which are the 69
balls from the first drum. Therefore, the total number of possible
combinations in a 5/69 game is 11,238,513.
Here’s the probability table for low and high number combinations
for a 5/69 game.
Pattern Probability
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Take a look at the graph for the U.S. Mega Millions game below:
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See How to win the Mega Millions 5/70 game according to math.
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patterns.
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When you pick lotto combinations, try to make a balanced mixture of low and high numbers.
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Use
HOME
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Patterns
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(do
CALCULATORS
not
BLOG
Let me explain.
But we know it’s not true because conversely from our low/high
analysis, a combination composed of purely low numbers and no
high numbers possesses one of the worst probabilities.
So evidently, when you deal with two separate analyses, you will
be presented with two contradicting viewpoints.
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But these number patterns are an excellent guide to help you pick
numbers with the best shot possible.
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Keep in mind that these patterns will help you get closer to the
winning combination. We are using mathematics to get the “best
shot” possible.
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Remember, no one can claim the best strategy to win the lottery;
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all we can do is get our best shot. And mathematics remains the
best tool for the job. So in our case, we use combinatorics and
probability theory to guide us.
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It’s high time that you know and be aware of all the types of
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combinations that will lead you to lottery success.
Being mathematically right in a truly random game means choosing the best ratio of success to failure.
Lotterycodex patterns help provide that intelligent decision.
It does.
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It may happen, but most likely not. At least that’s how it works
most of the time.
But to understand how the lottery works, we have to see the bigger
picture.
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That’s because the past draws will not have any effect on the
current draw.
That’s the exact opinion of many people saying that the lottery has
no memory. This belief crippled a lot of lotto players for centuries.
But we will shed light on this later on.
Many people fail to see how the lottery works as a whole. They
only see what happens in a draw.
So don’t just look at the lottery from a small number of draws. Try
to understand how the lottery works as a whole to see the larger
picture.
The law of large numbers states that given enough trials, the
actual outcomes always converge on the expected theoretical
outcomes. 16
That’s the mathematical law. The actual results will take place as
predicted by probability.
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It means that in 449 draws, this pattern may occur about 148
times.
It’s not exact, but it’s very close. And that’s the very nature of
probability estimation.
If you look at the other patterns, you will see that all probability
predictions match closely with the actual results.
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This big concept in the lottery is essential because when you see
the whole picture, you know how to play and be smart for the
majority of the time.
And one of the smart moves you can make is the strategy of
“timing.”
It just helps you understand why probability theory and the law of
large numbers is so relevant in our search for a hack on how to
win the lottery.
And because the probability cannot tell the right time to play, your
intuition should tell that maybe you can start to play on the 8th or
9th draw. Again we don’t know. But thankfully, we have a
probability principle to give us a clue.
So the number of draws that you are not playing because you
know your chosen pattern is not due is a huge money saver.
What you can do is use this opportunity to set aside money, so you
can play more lines when your chosen pattern is ready.
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You don’t need to play every draw. Use the Lotterycodex patterns to know when to skip and when to
play.
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Suppose the numbers 8, 17, 24, and 36 are drawn, then the
system provided you with two 4-matches and nine 3-matches.
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With the full wheeling shown above, you lose on 10 tickets but at
least you win on 11 of them.
For instance, if you select ten numbers, then it will produce 252
possible combinations. If you pick 12 numbers, then the possible
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The abbreviated and the filtered wheel allows you to reduce the
combinations for budgetary reason.
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”
Eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable,
must be the truth.
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Sherlock Holmes
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When you buy a ticket though, it’s either you win or lose. And that
depends on how you make a decision. If you don’t know the
possible choices, some of your decisions might turn out to be
leaning towards the losing side. It’s important to know what’s
probable and what is improbable.
Wrong.
Consecutive numbers
Perhaps the most popular combination that epitomizes the
consecutive pattern group is the infamous 1-2-3-4-5-6.
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Let me show you the actual results of real lotteries and see if you
can spot a trend. You don’t need to understand how LLN works for
now but by looking at the tables below, you will get some idea of
why you should avoid improbable combinations at all costs based
on the trend.
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29
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5-7-11-14-16-
Groups 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 are not represented
19
10-12-15-16-
Numbers belong to only one group
18-19
Those I mentioned above are just the tip of the iceberg. In short,
there are millions of improbable combinations in the lottery.
If you have been playing the lottery for many years, you’ve
probably wasted your money on one of these improbable groups.
There are so many complexities in the math that you have to deal
with. Luckily, you don’t have to calculate yourself. Use
Lotterycodex calculators to do all these calculations for you. We
have a list of calculators for all kinds of lottery systems.
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Avoid the improbable. Use the Lotterycodex calculator to avoid making the wrong choices
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But this is not the case in the lottery. The lottery has a finite set of
numbers and therefore, we have adequate knowledge of the
composition of the whole game.
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And voila! You get a compelling proof as to why you should not
play the combination 1-2-3-4-5-6 in a 6/49 lotto game. 19
That’s how probability works in the lottery. It gives you the power
to calculate the best shot possible. This is how Lotterycodex
calculator works.
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Use probability theory to know the possible choices and make the right decision. Use Lotterycodex
calculator to do this easily.
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By just avoiding silly lotto strategies, you are way ahead of the
90% of the lottery players, even without employing a bit of math
strategy.
So what are these strategies that don’t work? Below are some
examples:
hot numbers
law of attraction
cold numbers
prime numbers
lucky numbers
fortune spell
Horoscope numbers
quick picks
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The quick pick machine is not quite a silly lotto strategy. It’s just
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that a quick pick machine doesn’t provide you with better
control. 20
If you know your way around math, then use math and forget
about the quick pick. Why rely on the quick pick machine when
you can do better than that. So that’s what the silly thing about
using a quick pick.
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Superstitions will not provide the solution to lottery puzzle. Mathematics remains the only tool you need
to understand your game better.
You have to play more lines and pick numbers with some
mathematical sense.
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Put all the winning factors together, and lottery playing is going to
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be an expensive entertainment. So a lottery game plan must be
put in place to make sure that you’re doing it properly.
Just because math can help pick good numbers doesn’t mean you
can play the lottery all you want haphazardly.
You have to save money and wait for the right time to play. More
lines play a significant role in your winning chances.
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Make a game plan and implement it consistently. Save, play, and be patient.
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But let me tell you right now, there are two groups in the lottery.
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One is a group that always lose in the lottery. And another group
who “always” win in the lottery.
If you have been playing the lottery for many years and all you’ve
been achieving is losing lots of money, you’re doing it all wrong.
Don’t be surprised because playing the lottery is a losing
proposition since every ticket’s expected value is always negative.
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This inverse strategy will provide you the real advantage that
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should be yours for the taking. This works even if you’re a solo
player.
You always hear a popular saying, “keep doing what you’ve always
been doing, and you’ll keep getting what you’ve always been
getting.”
So the most compelling reason you should not miss this inverse
strategy is that you’ll keep losing money if you are not doing it now.
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Choose the path where you make the right mathematical decisions. Don’t play the lottery to lose.
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If you play the lottery, you may win that massive amount of money.
But here’s something you need to know. When you put some
money for investments (either a mutual fund or stock market), that
money will grow exponentially over time.
As I said if you have to play the lottery, have fun, and at least have
some mathematical sense for picking numbers.
Hey, you can do both. Consider playing the lottery as a hobby and,
at the same time, invest for your retirement.
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Put more money into your retirement and play the lottery for fun.
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1. Choose the right lottery with lower odds and with a better
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prize. Not all lotteries are created equally. Some systems are
a thousand times harder to win. And you don’t want that kind
of odds no matter how big the jackpot prize is. In the same
token, you don’t want a lottery game that is so easy to win if
the prize is not big enough to change your life.
5. Use the money that you can afford to lose. The positive
expected value in the lottery doesn’t happen in reality. Don’t
expect that you will gain profit in the long run, even if the
jackpot gets bigger. This EV lesson should teach you to treat
the lottery as entertainment and not as an investment. The
lottery will never replace a full-time job. You play just for fun.
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15. Know how not to lose. Do not play the lottery to lose. There
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is a surefire way to win the lottery if you know how to play the
game from its inverse perspective. It’s not about winning the
grand prize, but it is a winning proposition that you’ve been
waiting for all your life. And it works even if you’re a solo
player. Please visit the calculator section for more information
about Inverse Lotto Strategy.
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References
1. Feeling Lucky? How Lotto Odds Compare to Shark Attacks and Lightning
Strikes[↩]
2. Great White Hype: What Are the Odds of Being Killed by a Shark?[↩]
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5. Binomial Coefficients[↩]
13. A review of the Massachusetts State Lottery’s Cash WinFall game and issues
involving high-volume betting by syndicates[↩]
14. Lottery Syndicate and the Mathematical Advantage You Don’t Want to
Miss[↩]
15. According to math, it’s not worth risking $2 to play for the $1.5 billion
Powerball jackpot[↩]
17. The national lottery numbers: what have we learned after 20 years?[↩]
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3 COMMENTS
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DANIEL
August 10, 2020 at 8:32 pm
This has been the most worthwhile article I have read in all my
time as a lottery hobbyist.
Reply
TBOY
September 3, 2020 at 9:36 pm
I can’t quite remember the last time I read such a long article
online. But this right here worth the read. I thoroughly enjoyed the
straightforward explanation and power of maths. Thank you.
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KAWAL MARAJ
September 26, 2020 at 10:18 am
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