CHAPTER NINTEEN

TOURNAMENT STRATEGY:
ON THE BUBBLE

“
You don’t want to be the person with a big stack who
ends up on the bubble because you made a really goofy
play and you let your ego take over.
“

MASTE RCL ASS

 CHAPTER NINETEEN

tournament strategy:
on the bubble

SUBCHAPTERS

• UNDERSTANDING THE IMPORTANCE • PLAYING SHORT-STACKED

OF ICM
• PLAYING WITH A MIDDLE STACK
• LEVERAGE BIG STACKS
• AVOID ICM SUICIDE

CHAPTER REVIEW

he bubble stage is one of the most exciting parts
T of a tournament. When most of the remaining players
will get a prize, those with short stacks feel maximum
pressure to stay alive long enough to get in the money.
Once this bubble finally bursts, you will see a huge flurry
of action unlike any other period in the tournament, as
everybody will now at least get paid back their entry fee.
If you have a big stack, however, you’re in a great
position to leverage this against your opponents,
knowing that they can’t fight back without making
critical mathematical errors. During this period, it is
important not to tangle unnecessarily with other
big stacks, as this can lead to catastrophe in
tournament poker.

Simply put, ICM tells you the profitability of a decision
in money value rather than in chip value. Its purpose
is to distinguish the difference in value of a chip as
the tournament progresses, and this function is most
important as the money bubble approaches. ICM is critical
to your success at this stage of an event if your goal is
maximum long-term profit. It is also important when
you’re at the final table and large jumps in prize money are
significantly affecting your decisions. If your goal is only
to win the tournament, then you take maximum value
at every opportunity—but this is not the most profitable
path.
You must learn to understand when you are in an advanta-
geous or weak position, and adjust your play accordingly.
If you’re extremely short-stacked then conservative play is
a must.
At this stage, short stacks are only going to go all in
against big stacks when they have very strong hands—
so, beware of making loose calls unnecessarily.
How short you are in relation to other stacks dictates
the ideal strategy around the bubble. For example, if
you have seven big blinds under the gun and hold ,
this is a clear shove at a table where the other players have
15–20 big blinds. You must attack here to try and get back
in the game. If, however, you see three other players with
three or less big blinds at your table, then the same shove
becomes a huge mistake because of how much ICM
pressure there is on the shortest stacks.
You can take this attitude to extremes where, for example,
you might fold pocket aces to ensure you win a prize.
This “nitty” attitude will hurt your pocket just as much as
overly loose play.

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MASTERCLASS
 CHAPTER NINETEEN / TOURNAMENT STRATEGY: ON THE BUBBLE / DANIEL NEGREANU
If you have a middle stack at the bubble stage you will
usually have to play extremely tight. You don’t want to
clash with big stacks, but you are safe enough that you
don’t want to risk the chips you already have. It’s also a
factor that you could soon have a short stack yourself
if you don’t accumulate some chips. Middle stacks are
difficult to play but, as with short stacks, it is important
not to take your adjustments to extremes.
UP YOUR GAME
Choose a tournament player on Twitch.tv who plays
many tables at once and try to get a feel for how they
handle bubble situations. In a single evening you should
be able to witness many hands of this theme, and if you
are surprised at any of the situations then don’t miss the
opportunity to discuss this with your fellow students. You
can also try to ask the player questions in the Twitch chat
box while they play.
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MASTERCLASS
You also need to make sure you’re not committing ICM
suicide. Daniel has seen players fold pocket aces in a bubble
situation just to guarantee that they cash in. While the
“tight is right” maxim is certainly true, it’s important not to
take it too far. The same applies with shoving too liberally.
Remember: ICM is a factor you use to adjust your decisions
around the bubble and final table. It does not mean you stop
looking for value when you have a good hand.
Download the ICM training program. Practice some
situations to become familiar with the concept and take
note of the most serious errors in your game. Repetition of
this kind of training will turn you into an ICM master giv-
en enough time. To begin with, analyze the most extreme
short-stack situations on the bubble and build from there.
For an in-depth look at how one player skillfully
leveraged a big stack on the bubble, take a look at this hand
review from the 2016 PokerStars Caribbean Adventure.